POLL PREVIEW: 'S 2020 GUBERNATORIAL RACE

Centre for Democracy & Development Centre pour la Democratie/ et le Developpement/ POLL PREVIEW: EDO STATE'S 2020 GUBERNATORIAL RACE

he Edo governorship election scheduled for 19 September 2020 is one of seven off- season elections across 's 36states. Edo is strategic for national politics. TPrior to June 2020, when Edo's incumbent defected from the All Progressives Congress (APC) to the People's Democratic Party (PDP), it was the only state in the South-South geopolitical zone led by a non-PDP Governor. The election is high stakes for the two main political parties and could potentially have a bearing on the 2023 general elections.

In this report, the Centre for Democracy and Development analyses the political environment in the lead-up to the election, including voting trends, electioneering dynamics, and instances of political violence. The report also examines the political implications of the conduct and outcomes of the 2020 election for both Edo State and the country at-large.

01 2020 Election n 15 July 2020, the Independent Nosakhare Igbinedion. He was the National Electoral Commission National Vice Chairman, South-South O(INEC) released the final list of Zone of the defunct Action Congress of political parties and their candidates for Nigeria (ACN) and the Director-General the governorship election. Although the o f f o r m e r g o v e r n o r , A d a m s list contains 14 political parties, the Oshiomhole's successful campaign election is a two-horse race between team in 2012. Ize-Iyamu has recently the APC and PDP. The APC's candidate, b e e n e n d o r s e d b y P r e s i d e n t Osagie Andrew Ize-Iyamu, will face off Muhammadu Buhari. against the incumbent governor, Godwin Nogheghase Obaseki, standing The PDP candidate, incumbent on the PDP ticket. These candidates Governor Obaseki, was the Chairman of were the forerunners in the 2016 the State Economic and Strategy Team election but have since swapped party in 2009, prior to his ascent to umbrella and broom. governorship in 2016. Although considered politically weak during his Pastor Ize-Iyamu, has a strong election in 2016, he has subsequently grassroots network at the community gained significant support whilst in level. Between 1999 and 2003, he office. His defection from APC to PDP as served as Chief of Staff to the then a sitting governor is historic in the state. Governor of Edo State, Chief Lucky

02 Governorship 14 Candidates 18 LGAs 2,627 2,210,534 POLLING UNIT TOTAL REGISTERED VOTERS

LIST OF GOVERNORSHIP CANDIDATES FOR THE 2020 EDO ELECTION S/N Position Name of Candida te Party Gender 1 Governorship Edemakhiota G. Osaimiamia AA M 2 Governorship Mabel AkomuOboh ADC F 3 Governorship Ibio Lucky Emmanuel ADP M 4 Governorship Osagie Andrew -IzeIyamu APC M 5 Governorship Osagie Lucky Idehien APGA M 6 Governorship Amos O. Areloegbe APP M 7 Governorship Igbineweka Osamuede APM M 8 Governorship UsifoUhun Isaiah LP M 9 Governorship AgolEbun Trac y NNPP F 10 Governorship Stevie Nash Ozono NRM M 11 Governorship Godwin N. Obaseki PDP M 12 Governorship Felix IzekorObayangbon SDP M 13 Governorship Osagiobare Jones YPP M 14 Governorship AkhalamheAmiemenoghie ZLP M 03 List of Parties and mode of party primaries conducted S/N Political Parties Mode of Primaries 1 Action Allianc e Indirect

2 African Democratic Congress (ADC) Indirect

3 Action Democratic Party (ADP) Indirect

4 All Progressive Congress (APC) Direct

5 All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) Indirect

6 All People's Party (APP) Indirect 7 Allied Peoples Movement (APM) Indirect 8 (LP) Indirect 9 New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) Indirect 10 National Rescue Movement (NRM) Indirect 11 Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Indirect 12 Social Democratic Party (SDP) Indirect 13 (YPP) Indirect 14 Zenith Labour Party (ZLP) Indirect

The other parties in the race are: Action Among the 14 parties in the race, only Alliance (AA), African Democratic APC conducted direct primaries for Congress (ADC), Action Democratic electing its candidate. PDP and the Party (ADP), All Progressive Grand twelve other parties used the indirect Alliance (APGA), All People's Party method. The race is dominated by male (APP), Allied Peoples Movement (APM), candidates. Women constitute just Labour Party (LP), New Nigeria Peoples 14.3% of the governorship candidates, a Party (NNPP), National Rescue familiar trend in Nigerian politics. Movement (NRM), Social Democratic Party (SDP), Young Progressives Party (YPP) andZenith Labour Party (ZLP)

04 GODFATHER POLITICS AND THE STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF EDO

At the centre of the 2020 Edo governorship election is a political “The only godfather standoff between Adams Oshiomole – former Governor of Edo State between I have is God... 2008-2016, and former national c h a i r m a n o f t h e A P C — a n d t h e “ incumbent Governor , a was not in Edo today former close political ally of the APC heavyweight, turned PDP member. It is a and yet I won the personality clash, as well as a contest 18 local governments. b e t w e e n p a r t i e s f o r r e g i o n a l dominance. We have mutual respect

Adams Oshiomole, al abour-leader for each other”. turned politician, was elected to the Edo governorship in 2007, after a protracted Governor Oshiomhole. Youths who legal battle. Oshiomole has been at a worked for Tony Kabaka staged several central figure in state politics, and his protests, accusing the incumbent of party the ACN (which merged into APC) neglecting the leaders and youths who has maintained control over Edo. worked for him in the 2016 governorship Oshiomole was instrumental in the election. This resulted in a crisis election of incumbent Governor between Oshiomhole and Governor Godwin Obaseki in 2016 under the APC Obaseki. The political relationship ticket; and was considered Obaseki's soured such that in 2020, Obaseki was “godfather.” disqualified from contesting for governorship on the APC ticket - a But in office, Obaseki has backed out of technical disqualification by the APC the role of godson;instituting laws screening committee - and Oshiomole considered to be unfavourableto his even threatened his membership of the political sponsors. The governor party. abrogated the use of individuals and contractors for levy collection and Obaseki subsequently joined the PDP, introduced the use of electronic an action that has returned Edo State to payment system, following his assent to PDP control after twelve years. For the Harmonised Revenue Collection Act, first time in a decade, all six states in the 2017. The Act outlawed levy collection South-South geopolitical zone are by private actors in motor-parks and presently under PDP leadership. If PDP markets in the state – a privileged emerges winner of the forthcoming Edo enjoyed by Comrade Tony Kabaka Adun governorship election there is the during the administration of the former

05 Whichever candidate wins, the elections will represent a partial shift away from the state's history of godfather politics.

G o d f a t h e r i s m i n E d o p re d a t e s Oshiomole, with individuals like Gabriel Igbinedion and Tony Anenih who were active in the 1980s and early 2000s. But in this election, neither Ize-Iyamu nor Obaseki is affiliating strongly with a godfather. Although Oshiomole campaigns for him, Ize-Iyamu has asserted his independence. Ize-Iyamu portrays his campaign as a people's tendency that the party would movement driven by a grassroots strategically position itself for 2023 coalition in the state. He has also presidential election and would deflected attempts to cast him as a probably re-establish its dominance in protégé of the former governor; the zone. insisting they are friends who happened to be party members. The importance of the Edo election to In an interview with Channels Television national politics has been underscored in June, the APC candidate declared: by actions of both PDP and APC “The only godfather I have is members. During the flag-off of the God... Adams Oshiomhole was party's campaign in Benin City, the state not in Edo today and yet I won capital, in July 2020, the governor of the 18 local governments. We and the Chairman of PDP have mutual respect for each National Campaign Council for the other”. election, Nyesom Wike, declared that the “South-South zone completely Regardless of who wins, the new belongs to the party.” Also, at the flag- exe c u t i ve f o r m e d a f t e r t h e 1 9 off, the Governor of and September election will likely be driven Chairman, PDP Governors Forum, by governors without godfathers. Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, described Edo However, the influence of godfathers State as “strategic to the nation and may remain strong outside of the called on Edo people to always remain executive. The State House of Assembly steadfast and resolute”.The PDP has will likely remain divided along the lines also made allegations about the of those who support the godfather and readiness of the APC to deploy federal those backing his erstwhile godson. machinery to influence the outcome of Presently, 17 out of 24 members of the the election and has vowed to resist the House of Assembly remain loyal to any such efforts. Oshiomhole.

06 VOTING PATTERNS

Historic patterns of voter turnout and Nevertheless, voter turnout has support across Edo show declined from 78% in 2003 to 32.7% in interesting dynamics. Available data 2016 (see Figure 1). In terms of actual suggests that despite the increase in the figure, the number of accredited voters number of registered voters in the state also declined from over 900,000 to from 2003 to 2016, voter turnout 622,039. This pattern suggests that Edo continues to decline. When one looks at residents have been more interested in the differential in the number of participating in voter registration, than registered voters in the 2003, 2007, i n vo t i n g i n e l e c t i o n s . T h i s i s 2012 and 2016 governorship elections, notwithstanding the rising phenomena one would have imagined that the total of money inducement by political number of accredited voters would parties during the last governorship increase. In 2003 election, the State had election. 1,432,891 total registered voters compared to the 1,900,223 registered voters in 2016; an increase of 467,332 new registered voters.

In terms of voting and party preference there was a shift in the voting behaviour of Edo people in 2012 and 2016 governorship elections (See Figure 2). First, the overwhelming voting gap between the then ruling party, ACN and PDP was closed in the 2016 elections. The APC, which was formed as a result of merger of ACN with other political parties, lost out in five LGAs during the 2016 governorship election.

07 In the 2012 governorship election, the then governor, Adams Oshiomhole, won all the 18 LGAs with a victory margin of 333,243 votes. It was a landslide victory for ACN; they garnered more than 60% of the entire votes in 14 of the 18 LGAs. It even polled a majority of votes in Ovia-North LGA where PDP candidate, Major-General Charles Ehigie Airhiavbere (rtd), hailed from.

At the senatorial district level (see Figure 3), except for Edo South where ACN margin of victory was slender, the ACN dominated winning over 80% of the votes in Edo Central and 74% of the votes in Edo North.

08 In the 2016 election,when the incumbent governor was the flagbearer of APC, and his counterpart, Pastor Ize-Iyamu contested on the PDP ticket, the APC lost out to PDP in all the LGAs in Edo Central Senatorial District, except Igueben LGA. It also lost to PDP in Orhionwon LGA in Edo South. In Egor LGA where it garnered over 90% of votes in 2012, it won just 52.6% in the 2016 election. The voting gap was also closed in Etsako East (from 81.7% to 54.7%), Ikpoba Okha (from 88.6% to 51.2%) and Oredo (from 87% to 50.8%).

The PDP not only won in Edo Central, but closed the voting gap in Edo North where the former governor, Adams Oshiomhole hailed from. Obaseki's margin of victory was just 55,000 votes in 2016.

09 GEOGRAPHIC AND RELIGIOUS POLITICS

Politics surrounding geography and The region's only governor-elect, religion are likely to influence the Professor Osunbor, who hailed from character and outcome of the election. Esan West LGA, Edo Central, had a Since 1999, the leadership of Edo state short-lived tenure that was overturned has come primarily from Edo South and in a 2008 court ruling. In 2016, many Edo North zones, two out of the three thought a candidate from Edo Central senatorial districts in the state. Chief would be considered for the number (Governor from 1999 one seat, butthe candidates of the two to 2007) was from Edo South; Comrade major political parties emerged from Adams Oshiomole, an indigene of Edo Edo South. But the five Edo Central North, governed from 2008 to 2016; and LGAs (Esan South-East, Igueben, Esan the incumbent since 2016, Godwin North East, Esan West and Esan Obaseki is from Edo South. Pastor Ize- Central), predominantly occupied by Iyamu is also from Edo South. This Esan ethnic group, are likely to play a rotation has left out Edo Central. significant role in deciding who wins the forthcoming election. LIST OF GOVERNORS OF EDO STATE

CHIEF LUCKY PROF. OSERHEIMEN COM. ADAMS MR GODWIN IGBINEDION OSUNBOR OSHIOMHOLE OBASEKI 1999 - 2007 2007 - 2008 2008 - 2016 2016 - 2020 EDO SOUTH EDO CENTRAL EDO NORTH EDO SOUTH

10 The emergence of the same two complaints about the fact that the two contenders who contested the 2016 major parties fielded a Christian- election, in 2020 means different things Christian ticket. Obaseki ran with Philip to Esan people of Edo Central. On the Shuaibu as his deputy, while Ize-Iyamu's one hand, if Obaseki is re-elected, it running mate, John Yakubu was also presents an opportunity for a potential Christian. However, in the 2020 candidate from Edo Central to contest electoral process, there have been a n d p r o b a b l y w i n t h e 2 0 2 4 protests against parties fielding a governorship election. Ifthe APC Christian-Christian ticket. In the build up candidate is elected, the political to the poll, some Muslim groups have ambition of Esan people may not be lamented that the Muslim community in achieved until 2028.For the voters in Edo State has been marginalised and Edo Central therefore, the permutation relegated to the background for too may be to back Obaseki who would be long in the political affairs of the state. elected to serve a final four-year term. They have called for an egalitarian political structure that will secure for The role of religion in the political them the Deputy Governorship ticket in process is also gaining prominence In the next dispensation. The APC is the 2016 election, there were no fielding a Christian/ Muslim ticket. THE THREAT OF VIOLENCE

The election is a hotly contested race accused of sponsoring cultists and between two political heavyweights, recruiting, training and arming thugs and thus the potential for violence is and criminals to disrupt the campaign high.The pre-election period featured and the election. violent confrontations between the two major political parties. Clashes between Asides from political campaign supporters of the two parties in front of violence, two trends characterised the the palace of the Oba of Benin, His Royal pre-election phase ahead of the poll. Majesty Oba Ewuare II, resulted in Firstly, there is a threat to lives and several injuries and damage to vehicles. properties of politicians who hold Supporters and political thugs have strong allegiance to their parties and been seen at campaign rallies bearing failed to yield several calls for defection. unlawful firearms and defacing For example, in July 2020,Fred opponents campaign posters. As the Aimienwanwu, the vice-Chairman of state heads to the poll, there are fears Ovia South West LGA, raised alarm over that parties and their candidates have a threat to his life. In his petition to the been constituting machineries to assistant Inspector-General of Police, disrupt the electoral process, especially alleged that political thugs that visited by fomenting violence in areas his apartment and threatened to considered as opponents' strongholds. eliminate his entire family if he did not Both the PDP and APC have been defect to the PDP.

11 Secondly, political candidates and their act of violence and be ready to fight supporters have been promoting back if provocation occurs. He vowed to inflammatory statements that could retaliate, noting that “nobody has a potentially trigger violence ahead of the monopoly of violence”. election. In a viral online video, Ize- Iyamu was seen addressing a group of Despite signs that election-induced youth and reminding them that “their violence has begun to manifest in the influence on the election goes beyond a state, it was gathered during CDD's single on polling units”. He encouraged preliminary assessment of the political them to move beyond their units to situation that capacity of both parties to other local government areas. The APC perpetrate violence may lead to a candidate subsequently promised to violent-free election. Citizens and party handsomely reward youth that “move” chieftains who were interviewed argued to protect his votes. This is a dangerous that except for the 2007 governorship statement that could incite the youth to election, that recorded high violence, employ any means – including violence election day affairs are often conducted and intimidation - to ensure that he wins in a peaceful manner. Even if the threat the election. In the same vein, during a of violence remains a feature of the press briefing Governor Obaseki campaign period. promised his supporters that the government and party would resist any

12 CORONAVIRUS

he spread of coronavirus (COVID- 19) has raised not only social, Teconomic, and public health concerns; but has also impacted on voter turnout in elections in Africa conducted since the start of the pandemic. Across the continent, the virus has created an atmosphere of anxiety for voters despite preventive efforts by electoral bodies. In Edo state, the CDD expects that voter turnout will decrease because of the pandemic.

Notwithstanding, the high level of public consciousness about the danger of being infected by the deadly disease in Edo, compliance of voters with p reve n t i ve m e a s u re s a i m e d a t preventing the spread of the virus will b e u n p r e c e d e n t e d l y l o w. T h i s conclusion is drawn from the blatant disregard to COVID-19 protocol by political parties and their supporters in political rallies and campaign activities to date CONCLUSIONS he political survival of either the parties accusing one another of PDP or the APC and their actors investing in political thuggery and Tin the politics of Edo State is re a s s u r i n g s u p p o r te r s o f t h e i r dependent on the outcome of the 19 capacities to match violence with September 2020 governorship election. violence. Electoral violence, coupled with the spread of coronavirus, may The political hegemony of both parties lead to voter apathy as well as posing is presently threatened and the struggle obstacles to INECs ability to conduct to “take back” power has implications the polls. Such events could jeopardise for the conduct of peaceful and credible the integrity of the election. election. Ahead of the poll, there are signs of violence manifesting with both

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