POLL PREVIEW: EDO STATE'S 2020 GUBERNATORIAL RACE Centre for Democracy & Development Centre pour la Democratie/ et le Developpement/ POLL PREVIEW: EDO STATE'S 2020 GUBERNATORIAL RACE he Edo governorship election scheduled for 19 September 2020 is one of seven off- season elections across Nigeria's 36states. Edo is strategic for national politics. TPrior to June 2020, when Edo's incumbent defected from the All Progressives Congress (APC) to the People's Democratic Party (PDP), it was the only state in the South-South geopolitical zone led by a non-PDP Governor. The election is high stakes for the two main political parties and could potentially have a bearing on the 2023 general elections. In this report, the Centre for Democracy and Development analyses the political environment in the lead-up to the election, including voting trends, electioneering dynamics, and instances of political violence. The report also examines the political implications of the conduct and outcomes of the 2020 election for both Edo State and the country at-large. 01 2020 Election n 15 July 2020, the Independent Nosakhare Igbinedion. He was the National Electoral Commission National Vice Chairman, South-South O(INEC) released the final list of Zone of the defunct Action Congress of political parties and their candidates for Nigeria (ACN) and the Director-General the governorship election. Although the o f f o r m e r g o v e r n o r , A d a m s list contains 14 political parties, the Oshiomhole's successful campaign election is a two-horse race between team in 2012. Ize-Iyamu has recently the APC and PDP. The APC's candidate, b e e n e n d o r s e d b y P r e s i d e n t Osagie Andrew Ize-Iyamu, will face off Muhammadu Buhari. against the incumbent governor, Godwin Nogheghase Obaseki, standing The PDP candidate, incumbent on the PDP ticket. These candidates Governor Obaseki, was the Chairman of were the forerunners in the 2016 the State Economic and Strategy Team election but have since swapped party in 2009, prior to his ascent to umbrella and broom. governorship in 2016. Although considered politically weak during his Pastor Ize-Iyamu, has a strong election in 2016, he has subsequently grassroots network at the community gained significant support whilst in level. Between 1999 and 2003, he office. His defection from APC to PDP as served as Chief of Staff to the then a sitting governor is historic in the state. Governor of Edo State, Chief Lucky 02 Governorship 14 Candidates 18 LGAs 2,627 2,210,534 POLLING UNIT TOTAL REGISTERED VOTERS LIST OF GOVERNORSHIP CANDIDATES FOR THE 2020 EDO ELECTION S/N Position Name of Candida te Party Gender 1 Governorship Edemakhiota G. Osaimiamia AA M 2 Governorship Mabel AkomuOboh ADC F 3 Governorship Ibio Lucky Emmanuel ADP M 4 Governorship Osagie Andrew -IzeIyamu APC M 5 Governorship Osagie Lucky Idehien APGA M 6 Governorship Amos O. Areloegbe APP M 7 Governorship Igbineweka Osamuede APM M 8 Governorship UsifoUhun Isaiah LP M 9 Governorship AgolEbun Trac y NNPP F 10 Governorship Stevie Nash Ozono NRM M 11 Governorship Godwin N. Obaseki PDP M 12 Governorship Felix IzekorObayangbon SDP M 13 Governorship Osagiobare Jones YPP M 14 Governorship AkhalamheAmiemenoghie ZLP M 03 List of Parties and mode of party primaries conducted S/N Political Parties Mode of Primaries 1 Action Allianc e Indirect 2 African Democratic Congress (ADC) Indirect 3 Action Democratic Party (ADP) Indirect 4 All Progressive Congress (APC) Direct 5 All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) Indirect 6 All People's Party (APP) Indirect 7 Allied Peoples Movement (APM) Indirect 8 Labour Party (LP) Indirect 9 New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) Indirect 10 National Rescue Movement (NRM) Indirect 11 Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Indirect 12 Social Democratic Party (SDP) Indirect 13 Young Progressives Party (YPP) Indirect 14 Zenith Labour Party (ZLP) Indirect The other parties in the race are: Action Among the 14 parties in the race, only Alliance (AA), African Democratic APC conducted direct primaries for Congress (ADC), Action Democratic electing its candidate. PDP and the Party (ADP), All Progressive Grand twelve other parties used the indirect Alliance (APGA), All People's Party method. The race is dominated by male (APP), Allied Peoples Movement (APM), candidates. Women constitute just Labour Party (LP), New Nigeria Peoples 14.3% of the governorship candidates, a Party (NNPP), National Rescue familiar trend in Nigerian politics. Movement (NRM), Social Democratic Party (SDP), Young Progressives Party (YPP) andZenith Labour Party (ZLP) 04 GODFATHER POLITICS AND THE STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF EDO At the centre of the 2020 Edo governorship election is a political “The only godfather standoff between Adams Oshiomole – former Governor of Edo State between I have is God... 2008-2016, and former national Adams Oshiomhole c h a i r m a n o f t h e A P C — a n d t h e “ incumbent Governor Godwin Obaseki, a was not in Edo today former close political ally of the APC heavyweight, turned PDP member. It is a and yet I won the personality clash, as well as a contest 18 local governments. b e t w e e n p a r t i e s f o r r e g i o n a l dominance. We have mutual respect Adams Oshiomole, al abour-leader for each other”. turned politician, was elected to the Edo governorship in 2007, after a protracted Governor Oshiomhole. Youths who legal battle. Oshiomole has been at a worked for Tony Kabaka staged several central figure in state politics, and his protests, accusing the incumbent of party the ACN (which merged into APC) neglecting the leaders and youths who has maintained control over Edo. worked for him in the 2016 governorship Oshiomole was instrumental in the election. This resulted in a crisis election of incumbent Governor between Oshiomhole and Governor Godwin Obaseki in 2016 under the APC Obaseki. The political relationship ticket; and was considered Obaseki's soured such that in 2020, Obaseki was “godfather.” disqualified from contesting for governorship on the APC ticket - a But in office, Obaseki has backed out of technical disqualification by the APC the role of godson;instituting laws screening committee - and Oshiomole considered to be unfavourableto his even threatened his membership of the political sponsors. The governor party. abrogated the use of individuals and contractors for levy collection and Obaseki subsequently joined the PDP, introduced the use of electronic an action that has returned Edo State to payment system, following his assent to PDP control after twelve years. For the Harmonised Revenue Collection Act, first time in a decade, all six states in the 2017. The Act outlawed levy collection South-South geopolitical zone are by private actors in motor-parks and presently under PDP leadership. If PDP markets in the state – a privileged emerges winner of the forthcoming Edo enjoyed by Comrade Tony Kabaka Adun governorship election there is the during the administration of the former 05 Whichever candidate wins, the elections will represent a partial shift away from the state's history of godfather politics. G o d f a t h e r i s m i n E d o p re d a t e s Oshiomole, with individuals like Gabriel Igbinedion and Tony Anenih who were active in the 1980s and early 2000s. But in this election, neither Ize-Iyamu nor Obaseki is affiliating strongly with a godfather. Although Oshiomole campaigns for him, Ize-Iyamu has asserted his independence. Ize-Iyamu portrays his campaign as a people's tendency that the party would movement driven by a grassroots strategically position itself for 2023 coalition in the state. He has also presidential election and would deflected attempts to cast him as a probably re-establish its dominance in protégé of the former governor; the zone. insisting they are friends who happened to be party members. The importance of the Edo election to In an interview with Channels Television national politics has been underscored in June, the APC candidate declared: by actions of both PDP and APC “The only godfather I have is members. During the flag-off of the God... Adams Oshiomhole was party's campaign in Benin City, the state not in Edo today and yet I won capital, in July 2020, the governor of the 18 local governments. We Rivers State and the Chairman of PDP have mutual respect for each National Campaign Council for the other”. election, Nyesom Wike, declared that the “South-South zone completely Regardless of who wins, the new belongs to the party.” Also, at the flag- exe c u t i ve f o r m e d a f t e r t h e 1 9 off, the Governor of Sokoto State and September election will likely be driven Chairman, PDP Governors Forum, by governors without godfathers. Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, described Edo However, the influence of godfathers State as “strategic to the nation and may remain strong outside of the called on Edo people to always remain executive. The State House of Assembly steadfast and resolute”.The PDP has will likely remain divided along the lines also made allegations about the of those who support the godfather and readiness of the APC to deploy federal those backing his erstwhile godson. machinery to influence the outcome of Presently, 17 out of 24 members of the the election and has vowed to resist the House of Assembly remain loyal to any such efforts. Oshiomhole. 06 VOTING PATTERNS Historic patterns of voter turnout and Nevertheless, voter turnout has political party support across Edo show declined from 78% in 2003 to 32.7% in interesting dynamics.