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Vladimir Putin’S Stay in Sector MONTHLY December 2018 MONTHLY AugustOctober 2018 2018 The publication prepared exclusively for PERN S.A. Date of publication in the public domain: 19th17th NovemberSeptember 2018. 2018. CONTENTS 10 19 29 SECHIN’S ROSNEFT RUSSIAN GAME WITHIN RUSSIA’S WITHDRAWS FROM IRAN OPEC+ STRUCTURES “PAPER DIVISIONS” RUSSIAN-INDIAN MILITARY RUSSIAN ULTIMATUM: MINSK PARTNERSHIP: MILITARY DRILLS EXCLUDES RUSSIA’S 3 AND WEAPONS PURCHASE 16 “INCORPORATION” PLANS – PT. 2 RUSSIA’S GRU: NEW CHIEF, SAME NEW NUCLEAR MISSILES 4 GOALS 17 TO BE DEPLOYED IN KOZELSK MORE INFORMATION ABOUT RUSSIAN GAME WITHIN MONTENEGRO COUP TRIAL IS 19 OPEC+ STRUCTURES 5 REVEALED U.S. SHARP REACTION TO NORD RUSSIA SENDS ITS BOMBERS 20 STREAM 2 7 TO VENEZUELA SPECULATIONS OVER RUSSIA’S ENEMY AT THE GATES AS 22 NEW GENERAL STAFF CHIEF RUSSIAN DELEGATION PAYS 8 VISIT TO AMERICA VENEZUELA RECEIVES 24 FINANCIAL AID FROM RUSSIA SECHIN’S ROSNEFT WITHDRAWS 10 FROM IRAN RUSSIA AFRAID OF INF TREATY’S END: PUTIN BOASTS GAZPROM’S SHARES DROP AS US 26 OF NUCLEAR ARSENAL CONGRESS AND EU PARLIAMENT 11 CONDEMN NORD STREAM 2 PUTIN WELCOMES U.S. 28 WITHDRAWAL FROM SYRIA RUSSIA BOOSTS ITS ARMAMENTS PRODUCTION, US RUSSIA’S “PAPER DIVISIONS” 13 REMAINS GLOBAL LEADER 29 GAZPROM NEFT’S EXPANSION RUSSIAN ULTIMATUM: LUKASHENKO 31 TO THE ARCTIC 14 VERSUS MOSCOW – PT. 1 RUSSIA TEMPTS GREECE WITH 32 GAS PROMISES www.warsawinstitute.org 2 SOURCE: ENG.MIL.RU 3 December 2018 RUSSIAN-INDIAN MILITARY PARTNERSHIP: MILITARY DRILLS AND WEAPONS PURCHASE The Indian government strives to intensify its armaments cooperation with Russia disregarding the U.S. warnings. Russian naval vessels and missiles seem very desirable equipment for the state’s army. It is just a matter of time when India and Russia will seal next deals, especially after the visit of the Indian navy commander to Russia. Following a certain period of cool diplomatic relations with Moscow, India has now upgraded its defense ties with Moscow, becoming the largest purchaser of Russian military equipment and weapons. he Indra-2018 joint military exercises Ahead of Lanba’s trip to St. Petersburg, it was Tofficially ended on November 28. This informed that Indian Defense Ministry inked year’s edition was held in the Indian state of an agreement on assembling two Admiral Uttar Pradesh. The drills, officially launched Grigorovich-class frigates. The deal is said on November 18, were attended by 250 to be worth 500 million dollars. The Project soldiers from Russia’s Eastern Military District 11356M-class frigates are likely to be built and 250 servicemen from India. Shortly before from scratch at the Goa Shipyard Limited the end of the maneuvers, the Chief of the (GSL). The contract concluded with Russian Naval Staff of the Indian Navy paid a three- defense major Rosoboronexport provides for day visit to Russia. Admiral Sunil Lanba held transferring all necessary technology to the bilateral talks on Russian-Indian military Indian shipyard. The construction of the ships and armaments partnership with his Russian will begin in 2020; the first platform will be counterpart Admiral Vladimir Korolev as ready in 2026 while the second one is expected well as he met with a number of Russian to be deployed a year later. The 3.620-ton and officers. 124.8-meter Admiral Grigorovich-class is www.warsawinstitute.org 3 an upgraded version of the six Talwar-class India. During the New Delhi meeting, India frigates that Russia built for the Indian Navy signed an agreement with Russia to purchase between 2003 and 2013. The Indian warships a batch of S-400 air defense missile systems can be armed with the BrahMos supersonic at a cost of around $5 billion. The first missile cruise missile systems. In addition, India system is expected to be dispatched to India signed yet another $950 million contract with by the end of 2020. The Indian government Russia, under which Moscow will dispatch intends to seal a new 10-year framework deal to the country two more warships. The two for the construction and upgrade of at least Admiral Grigorovich frigates destined for the a dozen types of Russian weaponry systems, Indian Navy will be constructed at Russia’s including fighter aircraft, artillery guns, and Yantar Shipyard in the Kaliningrad Oblast. missile launchers. India keeps signing new The warships will be equipped with Ukraine- arms agreements with Russia disregarding made turbine engines, which were the object warnings by the United States of sanctions. of a separate procurement. The U.S. presidential administration imposes sanctions against any countries that carry out The visit of the Indian admiral to Russia military transactions with Russia’s defense occurred shortly after Vladimir Putin’s stay in sector. 10 December 2018 RUSSIA’S GRU: NEW CHIEF, SAME GOALS Vice Admiral Igor Kostyukov is the first naval officer nominated to head the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. He was appointed the acting head of the Russian GRU following the death of his predecessor Igor Korobov on November 21, 2018. His nomination will not introduce any changes to the core domains of GRU’s activities. First and foremost, it should be expected that Russia’s military intelligence will continue its hitherto offensive actions targeted against the West. he former head of Russian military 21, 1961, initially served as a navy officer. He Tintelligence, Igor Korobov, died at the later graduated from the Military Diplomatic age of 62 after a long illness on November Academy, after which he came to serve in the 21, 2018. He was the second GRU chief to GRU. As one of the top officers of Russia’s die while performing this function as his military intelligence, he exercised control predecessor, General Igor Sergun, suddenly over the Russian military operation in Syria. died on January 3, 2016, of a reported In addition, the vice-admiral was awarded heart attack. Previously, Kostyukov, as the the title of Hero of Russia. In late December immediate deputy of Korobov, attended the 2016, he was placed on the U.S. sanctions list. 100th-anniversary ceremony of the GRU He is yet another high-rank participant of the in November this year. Shortly thereafter, Syrian military operation to take the helm of that is after Korobov’s death, Kostyukov was one of the most important positions in the designated to carry out the duties of the chief state’s armed forces. It is noteworthy that at the of service while the official nomination was to aforementioned ceremony held on November take place at the end of last week. 2 in the Kremlin, President Vladimir Putin praised GRU officers, emphasizing their Vice Admiral Igor Kostyukov, born February outstanding merits in Syria. His enthusiasm www.warsawinstitute.org 4 SOURCE: KREMLIN.RU could be interpreted as support for in both an active and aggressive way, thus Kostyukov’s candidacy while Vice-Admiral increasing the likelihood of potential errors. was sitting right next to the president. For instance, Kostyukov will be tasked with improving GRU’s relations with its civilian The fact of charging the Vice Admiral counterpart, the SVR. It is not a secret that in with new duties, followed by his official recent years they have deteriorated. Following nomination, seems to corroborate Putin’s trust Kostyukov’s appointment, Russian media for the GRU that was not undermined even immediate reported that Sergei Naryshkin, by the recent series of mishaps reported on by the head of the SVR, had sent a cordial Western media. Russia’s military intelligence congratulatory telegram to the new GRU is unlikely to change its hitherto plans, acting chief. 11 December 2018 MORE INFORMATION ABOUT MONTENEGRO COUP TRIAL IS REVEALED One of the suspects on trial over a failed 2016 coup attempt fled to the Serbian Embassy. Branka Milic is among the twelve people whose trial is currently taking place in Podgorica while two alleged suspects, officially identified as Russian GRU military intelligence officers, are to be judged in absentia for organizing the failed coup plot. Media recently reported on the real personal details of the second of them. odgorica’s High Court opened a trial of intended to attack the country’s parliament Ppeople accused of the alleged coup d’état and kill Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic, in October 2016. Montenegrin authorities thus dissuading Podgorica from joining claimed that Serbian and Russian nationalists NATO. The coup was to be organized by two www.warsawinstitute.org 5 SOURCE: KREMLIN.RU Russian GRU officers, both of whom had putschists were ultimately detained while already been identified. Nonetheless, due others, including GRU officers, playing key to their escape, they are now being judged roles in the conspiracy, managed to flee to in absentia. 12 others were supposed to Serbia. They were both accused in absentia stand trial yet some of them were agreed while the real name of one of them was to be released on their own recognizance. quickly identified. The name of the first Among them is Branka Milic who holds Russian officer indicted in the Montenegro dual Montenegrin-Serbian citizenship. On coup trial was Eduard Shishmakov (alias November 23, she provided her testimony Shirokov). Back in 2014, he was expelled from in the court. At some point, she walked out his post as Russian Deputy Military Attaché in of the courtroom, complaining that her Poland after being accused of espionage. After rights had been violated. Podgorica’s High two years, it was finally possible to determine Court later ordered Milic to be detained the identity of the second GRU conspirator. yet she had managed to flee to the Serbian He turned out to be Vladimir Moiseev Embassy.
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