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Paulo Fernando De MB Cavalcanti Filho Paulo Fernando de M. B. Cavalcanti Filho (Coord.) Marcelo Gerson Matos Maria F. Gatto Padilha Sergio Duarte de Castro PROJETO PIB: Perspectivas do Investimento em Cultura Paulo Fernando de M. B. Cavalcanti Filho (Coord.) Marcelo Gerson Matos Maria F. Gatto Padilha Sergio Duarte de Castro Dezembro de 2009 P467 Perspectivas do investimento cultura / coordenador Paulo Fernando de M. Cavalcanti Filho; equipe Marcelo Gerson Mattos...[et al.] Rio de Janeiro: UFRJ, 2008/2009. 184 p.: 30 cm. Bibliografia: p. 168-180. Relatório final do estudo do sistema produtivo Cultura, integrante da pesquisa “Perspectivas do Investimento no Brasil”, realizada por Instituto de Economia da Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro e Instituto de Economia da Universidade Estadual de Campinas, em 2008/2009. 1. Cultura - Investimentos. 2. Indústria cultural - Brasil - Investimentos. 3. Economia industrial. 4. Relatório de pesquisa (UFRJ / UNCAMP). I. Cavalcanti Filho, Paulo Fernandes M. II. Kupfer, David. III. Laplane, Mariano. IV. Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro. Instituto de Economia. V. Universidade Estadual de Campinas. Instituto de Economia. VI. Perspectivas do Investimento no Brasil. CDD 338 PROJETO PIB - P I B EQUIPES: COORDENAÇÃO GERAL Coordenação Geral - David Kupfer (IE-UFRJ) Coordenação Geral Adjunta - Mariano Laplane (IE-UNICAMP) Coordenação Executiva - Edmar de Almeida (IE-UFRJ) Coordenação Executiva Adjunta - Célio Hiratuka (IE-UNICAMP) Gerência Administrativa - Carolina Dias (PUC-Rio) Coordenação de Bloco Infra-Estrutura - Helder Queiroz (IE-UFRJ) Produção - Fernando Sarti (IE-UNICAMP) Economia do Conhecimento - José Eduardo Cassiolato (IE-UFRJ) Coordenação dos Estudos de Sistemas Produtivos Energia – Ronaldo Bicalho (IE-UFRJ) Transporte – Saul Quadros (CENTRAN) Complexo Urbano – Cláudio Schüller Maciel (IE-UNICAMP) Agronegócio - John Wilkinson (CPDA-UFFRJ) Insumos Básicos - Frederico Rocha (IE-UFRJ) Bens Salário - Renato Garcia (POLI-USP) Mecânica - Rodrigo Sabbatini (IE-UNICAMP) Eletrônica – Sérgio Bampi (INF-UFRGS) TICs- Paulo Tigre (IE-UFRJ) Cultura - Paulo F. Cavalcanti (UFPB) Saúde - Carlos Gadelha (ENSP-FIOCRUZ) Ciência - Eduardo Motta Albuquerque (CEDEPLAR-UFMG) Coordenação dos Estudos Transversais Estrutura de Proteção – Marta Castilho (PPGE-UFF) Matriz de Capital – Fabio Freitas (IE-UFRJ) Estrutura do Emprego e Renda – Paulo Baltar (IE-UNICAMP) Qualificação do Trabalho – João Sabóia (IE-UFRJ) Produtividade e Inovação – Jorge Britto (PPGE-UFF) Dimensão Regional – Mauro Borges (CEDEPLAR-UFMG) Política Industrial nos BRICs – Gustavo Brito (CEDEPLAR-UFMG) Mercosul e América Latina – Simone de Deos (IE-UNICAMP) Coordenação Técnica Instituto de Economia da UFRJ Instituto de Economia da UNICAMP Após longo período de imobilismo, a economia brasileira vinha apresentando firmes sinais de que o mais intenso ciclo de investimentos desde a década de 1970 estava em curso. Caso esse ciclo se confirmasse, o país estaria diante de um quadro efetivamente novo, no qual finalmente poderiam ter lugar as transformações estruturais requeridas para viabilizar um processo sustentado de desenvolvimento econômico. Com a eclosão da crise financeira mundial em fins de 2008, esse quadro altamente favorável não se confirmou, e novas perspectivas para o investimento na economia nacional se desenham no horizonte. Coordenado pelos Institutos de Eco nomia da UFRJ e da UNICAMP e realizado com o apoio financeiro do BNDES, o Projeto PIB - Perspectiva do Investimento no Brasil tem como objetivos: Analisar as perspectivas do investimento na economia brasileira em um horizonte de médio e longo prazo; Avaliar as oportunidades e ameaças à expansão das atividades produtivas no país; e Sugerir estratégias, diretrizes e instrumentos de política industrial que possam auxiliar na construção dos caminhos para o desenvolvimento produtivo nacional. Em seu escopo, a pesquisa abrange três grandes blocos de investimento, desdobrados em 12 sistemas produtivos, e incorpora reflexões sobre oito temas transversais, conforme detalhado no quadro abaixo. ECONOMIA BLOCO SISTEMAS PRODUTIVOS ESTUDOS TRANSVERSAIS BRASILEIRA INFRAESTRUTURA Energia Estrutura de Proteção Efetiva Complexo Urbano Transporte Matriz de Capital PRODUÇÃO Agronegócio Emprego e Renda Insumos Básicos Bens Salário Qualificação do Trabalho Mecânica Produtividade, Competitividade e Inovação Eletrônica Dimensão Regional ECONOMIA DO TICs CONHECIMENTO Cultura Política Industrial nos BRICs Saúde Ciência Mercosul e América Latina PROJETO PIB: Perspectivas do Investimento em Cultura Coordenador Paulo Fernando de M. B. Cavalcanti Filho (NETE/NESC/UFPB) Equipe Marcelo Gerson Matos (UFF/Redesist-IE/UFRJ) Maria F. Gatto Padilha (UFPE) Sergio Duarte de Castro (UFG) Dezembro de 2009 Este documento integra o conjunto de estudos do Bloco Economia do Conhecimento e foi elaborado sob a coordenação de José Cassiolato e coordenção geral de David Kupfer e Mariano Laplane. Este documento foi produzido com base nos seguintes relatórios setoriais: • Cinema e audiovisual - Sergio Duarte de Catro (UCG) • Imprensa e editorial - Maria Fernanda F. Gatto Padilha (UFPE) • Música - Marcelo Gerson de Matos (IE-UFRJ) Os relatórios setoriais acima listados apenas serviram de base ou inspiração para a produção deste documento. As opiniões aqui contidas não refletem, necessariamente, a opinião dos autores dos relatórios setorias. Sumário 1. INTRODUÇÃO 8 1.1. Economia e Cultura 8 1.2. A Dinâmica Econômica Evolucionária das Indústrias Culturais 19 1.3. Objetivo Geral do Estudo do SPIC 22 2. DINÂMICAS DOS Investimentos NO BRASIL E NO MUNDO 23 2.1. Desafios e Oportunidades Associados às Mudanças Tecnológicas 23 2.2. Desafios e Oportunidades Associados às Mudanças nos Padrões de Concorrência e Regulação 30 2.3. Desafios e Oportunidades Associados às Mudanças nos Padrões de Demanda Mundial e Nacional 35 2.4. Desafios e Oportunidades Associados às Mudanças nos Padrões de Concorrência e Regulação 37 3. DINÂMICA DOS INVESTIMENTOS NO SISTEMA PRODUTIVO DA MÚSICA 60 3.1. Política, Entidades de Apoio e Legislação 63 3.2. Perspectivas de Médio e Longo Prazos para os Investimentos 64 3.2.1. Cenário Possível 64 3.2.2. Cenário Desejável 68 3.3. Propostas de Políticas 68 4. DINÂMICA DOS INVESTIMENTOS DO SISTEMA PRODUTIVO DO AUDIOVISUAL 74 4.1. A Dinâmica Global dos Investimentos 74 4.2. Tendências do Investimento no Brasil 4.2.1. Problemas e Perspectivas 81 4.3. Perspectivas de Médio e Longo Prazos para os Investimentos no SPIA 84 4.3.1. Cenário de Médio Prazo 2009-2012 84 4.3.2. Cenário de Longo Prazo 2012-2022 89 4.4. Proposições de Políticas 91 5. DINÂMICA DOS INVESTIMENTOS NO SISTEMA PRODUTIVO DA INDÚSTRIA EDITORIAL 96 5.1. Dinâmica Global do Investimento 96 5.1.1. Introdução 96 5.1.2. Dinâmica Global do Investimento 98 5.2. Tendências dos Investimentos no Brasil 101 5.2.1. Direitos Autorais 108 5.2.2. O Mercado de Jornais 108 5.2.3. O Mercado de Revistas 109 5.3. Perspectivas de Médio Prazo para os Investimentos no Subsistema Editorial 110 5.3.1. Economia Brasileira 110 5.4. Cenário Desejável ou Visão de Futuro 113 5.4.1. O Mercado Gráfico-editorial – Uma Análise de Longo Prazo 113 5.4.2. Políticas e Incentivos no Brasil 114 5.5. Uma Política Pública para o Sistema Produtivo das Indústrias Culturais 116 ANEXO 121 REFERÊNCIAS BIBLIOGRÁFICAS 130 PIB - Perspectivas do Investimento em CULTURA 1. INTRODUÇÃO 1.1. Economia e Cultura Tendo como referência teórica a abordagem desenvolvida na introdução deste livro, o estudo analisou as perspectivas do investimento produtivo para a economia brasileira, em uma perspectiva de médio e longo prazos, para um subconjunto de atividades econômicas que compõem o que se definirá, adiante, como Sistema Produtivo das Indústrias Culturais (SPIC). Este SPIC insere-se em um sistema mais abrangente, definido como Área das Indústrias do Conhecimento (AIC), a qual está assim composta: i) Sistema Produtivo das Indústrias Culturais (SPIC) ii) Sistema Produtivo das Tecnologias da Informação e Comunicação (SPTIC); iii) Sistema Produtivo da Saúde (SPS); e iv) Sistema Produtivo Baseado na Ciência (SPBC) Visando estabelecer uma metodologia que facilitasse a elaboração de sínteses e estudos comparativos, e que também estivesse voltada para privilegiar a análise dos instrumentos de coordenação, buscou-se, adicionalmente, subdividir em subsistemas produtivos as indústrias culturais que comporão o SPIC (QUADRO 1): i) Subsistema Produtivo da Indústria da Música (SPIM) ii) Subsistema Produtivo da Indústria Editorial (SPIE) iii) Subsistema Produtivo da Indústria do Audiovisual (SPIA) Quadro 1 - Áreas, Sistemas e Subsistemas Produtivos Integrante do Estudo Área Sistemas Produtivos Subsistemas Produtivos Serviços de telecomunicações TICs Software Cinema e audiovisual Indústrias Culturais Editorial Música (ind. Fonográfica e apresentações ao vivo) Indústrias do Base química e biotecnológica (fármacos, vacinas, etc.) Conhecimento Saúde Base mecânica e eletrônica (equipamentos, instrumentos e materiais) Serviços de atenção terciária à saúde Nanotecnologia e novos materiais Biotecnologia e genética Baseados em Ciência Novas fontes de energia Aeronáutica, aeroespacial e defesa Este conceito de SPIC agregará os fluxos de investimentos esperados e articulará os instrumentos de coordenação adequados para o conjunto das indústrias culturais, permitindo a comparabilidade com os demais sistemas produtivos estudados na área das Indústrias do Conhecimento. Para a definição do SPIC se faz necessário esclarecer três questões: A) O que se entende por Sistema e, mais
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