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M 6.4 Albania Earthquake Global Rapid Post Disaster Damage Estimation (Grade) Report

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M 6.4 Albania Earthquake Global Rapid Post Disaster Damage Estimation (Grade) Report FUNDED BY THE___________________________________________ EUROPEAN UNION ___________________________________ DECEMBER 16, 2019 Source: http://theconversation.com/can-one-earthquake-cause-a-cascade-of-more-127946 M 6.4 ALBANIA EARTHQUAKE GLOBAL RAPID POST DISASTER DAMAGE ESTIMATION (GRADE) REPORT WORLD BANK GPURL D-RAS TEAM ______________________________________________________________________________ Disclaimer © 2019 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. Further, the World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The sole responsibility of this publication lies with the author. The European Union is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. 1 ______________________________________________________________________________ Acknowledgements This report was prepared by a team led by Rashmin Gunasekera and Oscar A. Ishizawa (Urban, Disaster Risk Management, Resilience and Land Global Practice - GPURL, World Bank). The team also comprises of James Daniell, Antonios Pomonis, Joshua Macabuag, Andreas Schaefer, Maria Gaspari, Antonio Correia and Kerri Cox of the World Bank’s GPURL Disaster Resilience Analytics and Solutions (D- RAS) Knowledge Silo Breaker (KSB). The team gratefully acknowledges the contribution and guidance of Daniel Kull, Alice Mortlock and Alanna Simpson of the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) GPURL Urban and Disaster Risk Management team and Manya Deyanova of Mott MacDonald. The team is also grateful for the financial support from the European Union (EU) in the framework of the EU-WB/GFDRR Western Balkans DRM Program, managed by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). The team also gratefully acknowledges the contributions in data, guidance and information of Mott MacDonald; the Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM) at Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (Ann-Kathrin Edrich, Susanna Mohr, Michael Kunz); and the COPERNICUS emergency mapping service. Abbreviations COPERNICUS EMS: COPERNICUS Emergency Mapping Service DaLA: Damage and Loss Assessment D-RAS: Disaster-Resilience Analytics & Solutions, GPURL, World Bank Group GRADE: Global RApid post-disaster Damage Estimation GPURL: Urban, Disaster Risk Management, Resilience and Land Global Practice HOTOSM: Humanitarian OpenStreetMap Team OSM: Open Street Map PDNA: Post-Disaster Needs Assessments TEV: Total Exposure Value US$: United States Dollars 2 ______________________________________________________________________________ Datasets Used Hazard Data: • Local reconnaissance data • COPERNICUS EMSR412 data • Social media sourced data on intensities • CATDAT (historical info) • USGS, EMSC, CATNews, EarthquakeReport data on intensities Exposure Data: • Construction Statistics 1995-2018 • Census Data 2001, 2011 • Enterprise Census 2010, Business Register etc. • Investment Data • OSM and HOTOSM additions across Albania for all footprints and reanalysis • CATDAT • Agriculture (Census 2011 etc.) and National Accounts Data • Individual studies into various assets (INSTAT) Vulnerability and Damage Data: • Building codes of Albania • Historical event data (DaLA, PDNA, CATDAT) • Empirical vulnerability functions • Social media and ground photo analysis and loss adjusting • Situation Reports • Daily Ground Briefs 3 ______________________________________________________________________________ Contents Acknowledgements ......................................................................................................................... 2 Abbreviations .................................................................................................................................. 2 Datasets Used ................................................................................................................................. 3 Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................... 5 Summary of event characteristics .............................................................................................. 7 1.0 Introduction: Event Description ........................................................................................... 7 2.0 Analysis of Damage Distribution ........................................................................................ 11 Building damage assessment summary ......................................................................... 11 Damage to non-residential buildings, educational facilities, hospitals/health centres, other public buildings ............................................................................................................... 14 Evolution of building practices and earthquake code design in Albania ....................... 14 3.0 Post-Disaster Rapid Damage Estimation Methodology ..................................................... 20 4.0 Results and Interpretation ................................................................................................. 21 5.0 Discussion on Earthquake Risk and Conclusions ............................................................... 26 6.0 References ......................................................................................................................... 28 Annex A: Economic Damage Results by Municipality ................................................................... 29 4 ______________________________________________________________________________ Executive Summary Following the magnitude 6.4 Durrës-Mamurras earthquake on November 26, 2019, a rapid post- disaster damage assessment, following the GRADE methodology1, was undertaken. The objective is to estimate the economic damages caused by the event 2 and understand the spatial distribution of damages to support the process of developing a roadmap for recovery and reconstruction. Damage to buildings and infrastructure that resulted primarily from strong ground motion was assessed using a combination of government damage data; hazard modelling of the earthquake ground motion footprint; development of a buildings and infrastructure exposure database via census and capital stock information; and the assignment of structural vulnerability functions to existing structural typologies in Albania. Economic damage estimation results for the four most affected municipalities in the epicentral zone, as well as groups of municipalities in Tirana, north and south of the epicentral zone, and in the rest of the country were determined. Tables 1 and 2 show the estimated replacement costs and the relative impacts as a percentage of Total Exposure Value (TEV) for six sectors: residential (housing), infrastructure, education, health, commercial/public and industrial. The damage estimates cover buildings and contents. The analysis at this point does not evaluate the impact on loss in terms of economic flow (e.g. business interruption), it only assesses economic damage to capital stock. Class “Commercial/Public” includes non-residential buildings (private or public) that are not in the education, health, industrial sector (e.g. retail, administration, hotels, etc.). “Infrastructure” includes roads, bridges, ports, airports, railways, embankments, culverts, etc. In “rest of Albania” included are another 18 affected municipalities further away from the areas that suffered the most serious effects. Please also refer to the modeled seismic intensity distribution map in Figure 3, where areas with intensity 5 (V) or below are expected to have suffered none or minimal effects. 1 Global RApid post-disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) approach developed at the World Bank and conducted by the Global Practice for Social, Urban and Rural Development, and Resilience (GSURR) Disaster-Resilience Analytics & Solutions (D-RAS) Knowledge Silo Breaker (KSB). The methodology aims to address specific damage information needs in the first few weeks after a major disaster See https://www.gfdrr.org/sites/default/files/publication/DRAS_web_04172018.pdf for details of the methodology. 2 Using capital replacement costs which is the actual cost to replace an asset at its pre-damage condition. This may not be the "market value" of the asset, and is typically distinguished from the "actual cash value" payment which includes a deduction for depreciation etc. 5 ______________________________________________________________________________ Table 1. Estimate of the breakdown of the economic damage in absolute values (in US$ millions). The yellow bar highlights the damage severity in each zone relative to the damages in the epicentral zone for each sector. Affected Zones Commercial / (Municipalities) Residential Infrastructure Education Health Public Industrial TOTAL Epicentral Area (Durrës, 301.7 20 21.5 8.6 49.0 27.8 428.6 Krujë, Shijak, Vorë) Tirana and Kamëz 202.7 7.2 12.6 4.0 23.2 12.8 262.5 North of Durrës (Lezhë,
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