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The Role of Newspace in Furthering Canadian Astronomy

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The Role of Newspace in Furthering Canadian Astronomy 1 E034: The Role of NewSpace in Furthering Canadian Astronomy. The Role of NewSpace in Furthering Canadian Astronomy Aaron C. Boley1;∗, David Kendall2, Michael Byers1, Frederic J. Grandmont3, Cameron Byers4, Jennifer Busler5, William MacDonald Evans6, Brett Gladman1, Tanya Harrison7, Catherine Johnson1 1) The University of British Columbia, 2) Former Chair of the UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space, 3) ABB Inc., 4) Gulf Islands Secondary School, 5) MDA, 6) Former President of the CSA, 7) Planet Labs ∗[email protected] Executive Summary Space has become more accessible, led by commercial actors taking an increasingly important role. SpaceX alone completed 21 launches in 2018, placing communication and navigation satellites into orbit, resupplying the ISS, and launching TESS. The Beresheet mission, while ultimately crashing on the Moon, was a major milestone because it was driven by a private company incorporated in Israel. Such landings, whether successful or not, had previously only been attempted by major space-faring nations (Soviet Union/Russia, United States, EU, Japan, India, and China). A private American company (Moon Express) is planning a mission to the Moon with the International Lunar Observatory (ILO) as a payload. If successful, it will be the first international facility in space organized by a non-profit global enterprise (ILOA). A Canadian company is one of the primary contractors for this mission and the Canadian Space Agency (CSA) has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Moon Express to explore options for collaboration with the CSA and Canada’s private space sector on technologies and payloads for missions to the Moon. In Low-Earth Orbit, new models for scientific study are also emerging. When CSA funding for the satellite MOST ceased in 2014, the project was taken over by Microsatellite Systems Canada Inc., which continued operations using a pay-for-use model. The UK mission Twinkle (2022 launch) is being developed and run by a private company that will offer photometric and spectroscopic observing capabilities under a similar pay-for-use model, with an anticipated strict proprietary data policy. Canada has formally joined the United States in the planned Lunar Orbital Platform-Gateway, and is planning to invest $2 billion over the next 24 years. If successful, the mission will see a space station and launch platform in orbit about the Moon that will facilitate human and robotic missions on the lunar surface. Gateway will be open to both government and commercial actors. It will also not be the only means for accessing the Moon and deep space. Canadian-led deep space missions are possible, and we give an example of such a program, called Beacon. As much as NewSpace presents opportunities, there are significant challenges that must be overcome, requiring engagement with policy makers to influence domestic and international space governance. Failure to do so could result in a range of long- lasting negative outcomes for science and space stewardship. How will the Canadian astronomical community engage with NewSpace? What are the implications for NewSpace on the astro-environment, including Earth orbits, lunar and cis-lunar orbits, and surfaces of celestial bodies? This white paper analyzes the rapid changes in space use and what those changes could mean for Canadian astronomers. Our recommendations are as follows: Greater cooperation between the astronomical and the Space Situational Awareness communities is needed. Build closer ties between the astronomical community and Global Affairs Canada (GAC). Establish a committee for evaluating arXiv:1910.00222v1 [astro-ph.IM] 1 Oct 2019 the astro-environmental impacts of human space use, including on and around the Moon and other bodies. CASCA and the Tri-Council should coordinate to identify programs that would enable Canadian astronomers to participate in pay-for-use services at appropriate funding levels. CASCA should continue to foster a relationship with CSA, but also build close ties to the private space industry. Canadian-led deep space missions are within Canada’s capabilities, and should be pursued. 2 E034: The Role of NewSpace in Furthering Canadian Astronomy. SCOPE OF THE WHITE PAPER Old Space is a model in which space use is managed directly by states and their agencies, with large industrial companies serving as government contractors. In contrast, NewSpace refers to the ever expanding role that private industry plays in space use, with programs, initiatives, and services led by commercial operators. Indeed, the increasing number of non-state actors and the lowering cost of space access has permanently changed our daily lives. We are becoming ever more dependent on space services, such as navigation (sea, land, and personal), search and rescue, communications, weather forecasts, climate science, and environmental monitoring (e.g., fisheries and wildlife). The broader utilization of space for education, entertainment, and art is also being developed. NewSpace is often used as a reference to this new reality as well, which is how it is intended here. This white paper (WP) explores several prominent challenges of space use in the NewSpace era and high- lights how those issues could impact Canadian astronomy. The WP further discusses opportunities that NewSpace presents to the Canadian community, including leading lunar and deep space science programs. This work is complementary to that of Hutchings (2019),1 which provides an overview of Canadian space history and ongoing CSA projects, as well as the WP by Metchev et al. (2019),2 which discusses the use of small- sat technology for astronomy. Furthermore, while there are a number of key challenges facing NewSpace, which involve technical, political, and legal hurdles, this WP will only reference those that will need immediate consider- ation for Canadian astronomy and space exploration. The WP is organized as follows: A series of subtopics are presented as short summaries. An overall discussion followed by key recommendations is presented at the end of the WP. When necessary to provide context, some discussion is also given in the subtopic summaries. ACCESSIBILITY OF SPACE The number of launch opportunities, the costs of those launches, and payload sharing are making space acces- sible to a wider group of people. Year 2018 established a new record for the number of orbital launches, with 114 in total,3 up from 69 launches in 2008. Over the past decade the number of payloads has also increased (Fig. 1). India alone carried 104 payloads in a single launch in 2017,4 almost all of which were cubesats. SpaceX launched 64 satellites at once in November of 2018. Such ridesharing shows no signs of abating. In preparation for its megaconstellation Starlink, SpaceX placed 60 satellites, with a mass of 227 kg each, into orbit with one Falcon 9 in May of 2019. As of August 1st this year, 209 satellites have already been launched, ensuring 2019 will be another high-payload year. 400 103 Vanguard 350 300 102 250 Pegasus XL 200 Ariane 5G Delta III Number of Payloads Rockot Vega 101 1000 USD per kg to LEO Long March 3B 150 Saturn V Zenit 2 Dnepr Falcon 9 100 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Falcon Heavy 100 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Year Year of First Launch Figure 1: The number of payloads by date. Data: Figure 2: Cost to per kg to LEO, adjusted to 2018 JSFCC. dollars. Based on Jones (2018). When comparing Figure 1 with the corresponding number of orbital launches for a specific year, most payloads are placed into orbit through ridesharing rather than dedicating a single rocket to a mission. At least one company 3 E034: The Role of NewSpace in Furthering Canadian Astronomy. has emerged with the business model to be a liaison between end users and launch organizations,5 facilitating ridesharing. Several launch providers are making ridesharing a priority for at least some fraction of their launches6,7 while others are investing in new technologies to advance this service.8 For the number of orbital launches in 2018, China led with 39 from Chinese spaceports. In comparison, 31 rockets were launched by the United States, 17 by the Russian Federation, 11 by the EU, 7 by India, 6 by Japan, and 3 by New Zealand. Of the 31 launches in the US, 21 used SpaceX6 rockets, 8 used ULA,9 and two by Orbital ATK. Worldwide, there were 23 types of expendable rockets available for commercial use in 2017.10 Falcon 9 launches are now reported to be under $3,000 USD kg−1, which represents a considerable decrease compared with the prices between 1970 and 2000 (see Figure 2). Note that launch costs below $10; 000 USD kg−1 during that time are thought to be due to subsidies by the Chinese and Russian governments. There are multiple reasons for the recent decline in costs (see Jones 201811 for a review). Reusable rockets are not yet the main driver of this reduction, with the near-term cost savings from rocket re-use still unclear and potentially only 30%.12 While launch costs are often evaluated in terms of price per mass of payload, several companies are now offering or plan to offer low-cost rockets for LEO and/or SSO with dedicated or rideshare capabilities, such as the Electron13 ($6M USD), the Terran14 ($10M USD), and the Firefly Alpha15 ($15 M USD). With the decreasing costs of rockets and payloads to orbit, can Canada also develop lift capabilities? Maritime Launch Services is a company, incorporated in Canada, formed from a partnership between Yuzhnoye, a Ukranian state-owned rocket manufacturer, and United Paradyne, an American private company with propulsion services. An environment assessment was just approved, clearing a major hurdle for MLS to establish a commercial spaceport in Canso, Nova Scotia.16 However, the upper stage of the proposed Cyclone-4M rocket would use unsymmetrical dimethylhydrazine (UDMH), which is known to have adverse health effects and has caused environmental damage in Russia and the polar regions.17 This raises concerns about the MLS’s proposed solution.
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