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Freight on Transit Delphi Study

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Freight on Transit Delphi Study Freight on Transit Delphi Study by Keith Cochrane A thesis submitted in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Master of Applied Science Department of Civil Engineering University of Toronto © Copyright by Keith Cochrane 2012 Freight on Transit Delphi Study Keith Cochrane Master of Applied Science Department of Civil Engineering University of Toronto 2012 Abstract The Freight on Transit Delphi Study was conducted to explore the concept of freight on transit – using public transit vehicles and infrastructure for transporting things other than people. Three rounds of web based surveys were conducted with a panel of 34 transportation experts to explore the main issues related to freight and transit integration and to build and evaluate potential freight on transit operations. Survey results were consistent with previous investigations and suggest that organizational disputes are a larger barrier to implementation than technical challenges. Traditional Delphi questions were used to determine the most important positive impacts, negative impacts, and challenges of moving freight on transit networks while survey responses combined with scenario building techniques were used to build and evaluate five potential freight on transit operating strategies using public transit networks in the GTHA. ii Acknowledgments First and foremost I would like to thank my supervisors Matthew Roorda and Amer Shalaby for the advice, guidance, and expertise they provided throughout this research process. I would also like to thank Metrolinx for supporting this project, in particular Anthony Caruso and Maureen McLeod. As well, I want to thank the 34 experts that participated in the Delphi Study as well as students and other Metrolinx staff who participated in survey testing rounds. Finally I would like to thank my family and Miriam for their encouragement and patience. iii Table of Contents Acknowledgments .......................................................................................................................... iii Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................... iv List of Tables ................................................................................................................................ vii List of Figures ................................................................................................................................ ix List of Appendices ......................................................................................................................... xi List of Acronyms/Variables .......................................................................................................... xii Chapter 1: Introduction and Background ........................................................................................ 1 1.1 Urban Goods Movement ..................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Public Transit Operations ................................................................................................... 2 1.3 Research Questions and Objectives .................................................................................... 3 1.4 Thesis Structure .................................................................................................................. 5 Chapter 2: Literature Review .......................................................................................................... 6 2.1 Existing FOT Operations .................................................................................................... 6 2.1.1 FOT-EX: Freight on Existing Public Transit Trips ................................................ 6 2.1.2 FOT-NEW: New Freight Trips on Existing Public Transit Infrastructure ............. 8 2.1.3 Transit on Freight .................................................................................................. 11 2.2 Proposed FOT Operations ................................................................................................. 13 2.3 Summary of Findings ........................................................................................................ 13 2.4 The Delphi Method ........................................................................................................... 14 2.4.1 The Delphi Method for Transportation and Logistics Planning ........................... 16 Chapter 3: Research Methods ....................................................................................................... 18 3.1 The Delphi Method ........................................................................................................... 18 3.1.1 Justification ........................................................................................................... 19 3.1.2 Strength and Weaknesses ...................................................................................... 20 iv 3.2 Typical Delphi Procedure ................................................................................................. 23 3.2.1 Number of Delphi Rounds .................................................................................... 24 3.2.2 Defining Expertise and Selecting the Number of Participants ............................. 24 3.2.3 Survey Structure and Evaluation .......................................................................... 26 3.2.4 Statistical Methods ................................................................................................ 28 3.2.5 Feedback Provided to Delphi Experts ................................................................... 32 3.3 FOT Delphi Procedure ...................................................................................................... 33 3.3.1 Objective 1: Explore main issues of FOT operations ........................................... 33 3.3.2 Objective 2: Build and Evaluate FOT Operating Strategies for the GTHA ......... 36 Chapter 4: Survey Process ............................................................................................................ 40 4.1 Web Based Survey ............................................................................................................ 40 4.2 Recruiting Experts and Minimizing Non-Response and Attrition .................................... 41 4.3 Survey Design ................................................................................................................... 42 4.4 Survey 1 ............................................................................................................................ 43 4.4.1 Layout ................................................................................................................... 44 4.4.2 Pretesting ............................................................................................................... 48 4.4.3 Delivery ................................................................................................................. 51 4.5 Survey 2 ............................................................................................................................ 52 4.5.1 Layout ................................................................................................................... 57 4.5.2 Pretesting ............................................................................................................... 60 4.5.3 Delivery ................................................................................................................. 63 4.6 Survey 3 ............................................................................................................................ 64 4.6.1 Layout ................................................................................................................... 66 4.6.2 Pretesting ............................................................................................................... 69 4.6.3 Delivery ................................................................................................................. 71 Chapter 5: Results and Analysis ................................................................................................... 72 v 5.1 Response and Retention Rates .......................................................................................... 72 5.2 Demographics of Expert Panel ......................................................................................... 73 5.3 FOT Issues ........................................................................................................................ 76 5.3.1 FOT Positive Impacts ........................................................................................... 77 5.3.2 FOT Negative Impacts .......................................................................................... 81 5.3.3 FOT Challenges .................................................................................................... 86 5.3.4 Summary of Findings ............................................................................................ 91 5.4 FOT Strategy Building and Evaluation ............................................................................. 92 5.4.1 Strategy Building .................................................................................................. 92 5.4.2 Proposed FOT Strategies ...................................................................................... 98 5.4.3 Final Strategy Evaluations
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