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Working Group I Contribution to the Ipcc Fifth Assessment Report Climate Change 2013: the Physical Science Basis

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Working Group I Contribution to the Ipcc Fifth Assessment Report Climate Change 2013: the Physical Science Basis WORKING GROUP I CONTRIBUTION TO THE IPCC FIFTH ASSESSMENT REPORT CLIMATE CHANGE 2013: THE PHYSICAL SCIENCE BASIS Final Draft Underlying Scientific-Technical Assessment A report accepted by Working Group I of the IPCC but not approved in detail. Note: The final draft Report, dated 7 June 2013, of the Working Group I contribution to the IPCC 5th Assessment Report "Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis" was accepted but not approved in detail by the 12th Session of Working Group I and the 36th Session of the IPCC on 26 September 2013 in Stockholm, Sweden. It consists of the full scientific and technical assessment undertaken by Working Group I. The Report has to be read in conjunction with the document entitled “Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC 5th Assessment Report - Changes to the underlying Scientific/Technical Assessment” to ensure consistency with the approved Summary for Policymakers (IPCC-XXVI/Doc.4) and presented to the Panel at its 36th Session. This document lists the changes necessary to ensure consistency between the full Report and the Summary for Policymakers, which was approved line-by-line by Working Group I and accepted by the Panel at the above- mentioned Sessions. Before publication the Report will undergo final copyediting as well as any error correction as necessary, consistent with the IPCC Protocol for Addressing Possible Errors. Publication of the Report is foreseen in January 2014. Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material on maps do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. 30 September 2013 WORKING GROUP I – TWELFTH SESSION Stockholm, 23-26 September 2013 WG-I: 12 th /Doc. 2b, CH05 (12.VIII.2013) Agenda Item: 5 ENGLISH ONLY WORKING GROUP I CONTRIBUTION TO THE IPCC FIFTH ASSESSMENT REPORT (AR5), CLIMATE CHANGE 2013: THE PHYSICAL SCIENCE BASIS Chapter 5: Information from Paleoclimate Archives - Final Draft Underlying Scientific- Technical Assessment (Submitted by the Co-Chairs of Working Group I) Confidential – This document is being made available in preparation of WGI-12 only and should not be cited, quoted, or distributed NOTE: The Final Draft Underlying Scientific-Technical Assessment is submitted to the Twelfth Session of Working Group I for acceptance. The IPCC at its Thirty-sixth Session (Stockholm, 26 September 2013) will be informed of the actions of the Twelfth Session of Working Group I in this regard. IPCC Secretariat c/o WMO • 7bis, Avenue de la Paix • C.P. 2300 • 1211 Geneva 2 • Switzerland telephone : +41 (0) 22 730 8208 / 54 / 84 • fax : +41 (0) 22 730 8025 / 13 • email : [email protected] • www.ipcc.ch Final Draft (7 June 2013) Chapter 5 IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report Chapter 5: Information from Paleoclimate Archives Coordinating Lead Authors: Valérie Masson-Delmotte (France), Michael Schulz (Germany) Lead Authors: Ayako Abe-Ouchi (Japan), Jürg Beer (Switzerland), Andrey Ganopolski (Germany), Jesus Fidel González Rouco (Spain), Eystein Jansen (Norway), Kurt Lambeck (Australia), Jürg Luterbacher (Germany), Tim Naish (New Zealand), Timothy Osborn (UK), Bette Otto-Bliesner (USA), Terrence Quinn (USA), Rengaswamy Ramesh (India), Maisa Rojas (Chile), XueMei Shao (China), Axel Timmermann (USA) Contributing Authors: Kevin Anchukaitis (USA), Patrick J. Bartlein (USA), Gerardo Benito (Spain), Peter Clark (USA), Thomas Crowley (UK), Patrick De Deckker (Australia), Anne de Vernal (Canada), Barbara Delmonte (Italy), Pedro DiNezio (USA), Trond Dokken (Norway), Harry J. Dowsett (USA), R. Lawrence Edwards (USA), Hubertus Fischer (Switzerland), Dominik Fleitmann (UK), Gavin Foster (UK), Claus Fröhlich (Switzerland), Aline Govin (Germany), Julia Hargreaves (Japan), Alan Haywood (UK), Chris Hollis (New Zealand), Ben Horton (USA), Robert Kopp (USA), Amaelle Landais (France), Camille Li (Norway/Canada), Dan Lunt (UK), Natalie Mahowald (USA), Shayne McGregor (Australia), Jerry X. Mitrovica (USA/Canada), Anders Moberg (Sweden), Manfred Mudelsee (Germany), Daniel R. Muhs (USA), Stefan Mulitza (Germany), Stefanie Müller (Germany), Frédéric Parrenin (France), Paul Pearson (UK), Alan Robock (USA), Eelco Rohling (Australia), Ulrich Salzmann (UK), Joel Savarino (France), Jeremy Shakun (USA), Jason Smerdon (USA), Olga Solomina (Russia), Pavel Tarasov (Germany), Bo Vinther (Denmark), Claire Waelbroeck (France), Dieter Wolf-Gladrow (Germany), Yusuke Yokoyama (Japan), Masakazu Yoshimori (Japan), James Zachos (USA), Dan Zwartz (New Zealand) Review Editors: Anil K. Gupta (India), Fatemeh Rahimzadeh (Iran), Dominique Raynaud (France), Heinz Wanner (Switzerland) Date of Draft: 7 June 2013 Table of Contents Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 3 5.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 7 5.2 Pre-Industrial Perspective on Radiative Forcing Factors ................................................................... 7 5.2.1 External Forcings .......................................................................................................................... 7 5.2.2 Radiative Perturbations from Greenhouse Gases and Dust ........................................................ 10 Box 5.1: Polar Amplification ........................................................................................................................ 12 5.3 Earth System Responses and Feedbacks at Global and Hemispheric Scales ................................... 14 5.3.1 High CO2 Worlds and Temperature ............................................................................................. 15 5.3.2 Glacial-Interglacial Dynamics .................................................................................................... 16 Box 5.2: Climate-Ice sheet Interactions ....................................................................................................... 18 5.3.3 Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) ................................ 19 5.3.4 Past Interglacials ......................................................................................................................... 23 5.3.5 Temperature Variations During the Last 2000 Years .................................................................. 24 5.4 Modes of Climate Variability ............................................................................................................... 30 5.4.1 Tropical Modes ............................................................................................................................ 30 5.4.2 Extratropical Modes .................................................................................................................... 31 5.5 Regional Changes During the Holocene .............................................................................................. 32 5.5.1 Temperature ................................................................................................................................. 32 5.5.2 Sea Ice .......................................................................................................................................... 35 5.5.3 Glaciers ........................................................................................................................................ 36 5.5.4 Monsoon Systems and Convergence Zones ................................................................................. 37 5.5.5 Megadroughts and Floods ........................................................................................................... 37 5.6 Past Changes in Sea Level .................................................................................................................... 39 5.6.1 Mid-Pliocene Warm Period (MPWP) .......................................................................................... 39 Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute 5-1 Total pages: 138 Final Draft (7 June 2013) Chapter 5 IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report 5.6.2 The Last Interglacial (LIG) .......................................................................................................... 40 5.6.3 Last Glacial Termination and Holocene ...................................................................................... 43 5.7 Evidence and Processes of Abrupt Climate Change .......................................................................... 45 5.8 Paleoclimate Perspective on Irreversibility in the Climate System .................................................. 46 5.8.1 Ice Sheets ..................................................................................................................................... 46 5.8.2 Ocean Circulation ........................................................................................................................ 47 5.8.3 Next Glacial Inception ................................................................................................................. 48 5.9 Concluding Remarks ............................................................................................................................. 48 FAQ 5.1: Is the Sun a Major Driver of Recent
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