(Doha Institute) www.dohainstitute.org

Commentary

Egyptian Political Parties

and Parliamentary Elections 2011/2012

Ahmad Abed Rabbo

Arab Center for Research & Policy Studies Commentary Doha, December- 2011

Commentary Series

Copyrights reserved for Arab Center for Research & Policy Studies © 2011

Contents

EGYPTIAN POLITICAL PARTIES ...... AND PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 2011/2012 ......

INTRODUCTION ...... 1

THE LEGAL FRAMEWORK OF THE ELECTIONS ...... 1

COMPETING PARTIES AND COALITIONS ...... 2

PARTY ALLIANCES ...... 3

NON-ALLIED PARTIES ...... 4

PARTIES THAT EMANATED FROM THE DISSOLVED NATIONAL PARTY ...... 4

THE MAIN ELECTION CHALLENGES FACING THE PARTIES ...... 5

CONCLUSION ...... 5

Arab Center for Research & Policy Studies Egyptian Political Parties

Introduction The first phase of elections for the People’s Assembly and Shura Council in the Arab Republic of was launched on November 28, 2011, and the last phase will end on March 11, 2012. Initial results are expected to produce the first pluralist parliament in Egypt’s history, after both houses have been under the control of the executive branch and security apparatuses for the past decades. People felt unrepresented by both houses, and the hijacking of people’s will by the appointment of members to both assemblies in 2010 was the straw that broke the camel’s back and paved the way for the January 25 revolution.

These elections are an important event on the Egyptian scene as they are the first step in ending the transitional period and handing authority positions in the military to elected civilian institutions, followed by the creation of a new political system from the ruins of the Mubarak regime, as well as the formation of a government that works to bring the country out of the economic crisis that plagues it.

The Egyptian people have great hopes that this process will represent the free will of the Egyptian voter, with expectations and wishes that the system is fair, particularly with a return to full judicial supervision of the management of all phases of the electoral process.

These are the first elections in which citizens living abroad will be allowed to vote through embassies and consulates, and the first to be dominated by a mixed system that allows the nomination of party and individual lists after two decades of being confined to the individual system. Additionally, it is the first to witness an unprecedented widening of the base of popular participation in which every Egyptian over eighteen year of age that carries an identity card can vote directly instead of restricting it to those who obtain electoral cards in limited time frames, an act that previously reduced participation rates.

Election results will specify the shape of the Egyptian political scene after the revolution, particularly as the elected parliament will have the right to choose members of the founding committee to write the country’s new constitution, which will define the relationship between different authorities and find an identity for the new government, though this remains a matter of dispute between different movements, especially the Islamic and the liberal.

The Legal Framework of the Elections Parliamentary are now to be conducted according to a legal framework set by the constitutional declaration that was approved by a popular referendum on March 19, 2011, and by the executive regulations issued in 2011, to further examine the political rights law of

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1965 and the decrees of the organized laws for the People’s Assembly and Shura Council issued by the supreme council and the armed forces this year.

One-third of parliamentary seats are contested following the individual system and two-thirds following the closed list system, especially when parties are allowed to nominate their members for the individual seats. Elections for the People’s Assembly are conducted in three stages between November 28, 2011 to January 10, 2012, and again in another three stages for the Shura Council from January 29, 2012 to March 11, 2012.

he new laws and regulations governing the electoral process are very conservative and follow the same ethos and legal framework that was present in the previous political system. The constitution maintains the proportion of representation for workers and peasants (50 percent); this ratio, however, is outdated and does not represent the nature of the new political system to be established, particularly as several candidates dishonestly resorted to portraying their electoral identity as peasants or workers. The ruling military council also preserved the weakness of the Shura Council, rejecting demands to increase its powers or completely abolish it. It remains more of an advisory board than a legislature. This decision has led to widespread criticism from political forces because elections to the Shura Council are a waste of time and resources.

The military council made a compromise with political and revolutionary forces by imposing a ban on leaders of the dissolved National Party, preventing them from contesting the elections because of the political crimes they have committed over the past decades. On the first occasion the council procrastinated, on the second it postponed it, and on the third it imposed it and put into effect the law with no regard to the aspirations of the different political forces. This decision came too late and after the deadline for nominations. Many previous members of the National Party are contesting the elections under the banner of other parties or for individual seats.

The legal framework that regulates parliamentary elections in Egypt came under scrutiny by most political groups because it conserved the ethos of the Mubarak era, but most of these groups were forced to enter the electoral contest under these rules in order not to promote the long-term survival of the military authority and give it a permanent domination over decision- making positions.

Competing Parties and Coalitions There are almost 67 parties contesting for parliamentary seats in Egypt (498 seats for the People’s Assembly and 270 for the Shura Council, among them 90 that will be appointed by the president after he is elected), including 24 parties that existed before the revolution and the rest that were formed after it.

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Taking into account the dissolving of the National Party, which has divided itself among old and new parties, most of the small parties don’t enjoy any fame or real popularity on the street. Many of the parties have formed coalitions to compete in the elections on a joint list. A distinction could be made among three groups of parties as follows:

Party alliances A distinction could be made among four main electoral coalitions:

 The Democratic Alliance for Egypt is a party that was established in July 2011 and includes the following parties – the Freedom and (FJP), emanating from the , the New Tomorrow party (liberal and headed by , a well known politician), and the Dignity Party or Al-Karama (left-wing Nasserist), in addition to eight other small parties most of which are not well known.

It began as a broader alliance with the participation of many parties, most prominently Al-Wafd (liberal) and Al-Noor (salafi). Wide differences over the Constitutional Principles document and the size of party representation in the closed lists led to the withdrawal of Al-Wafd and Al-Nour parties, in effect making the FJP the leader of this coalition.

The Democratic Alliance for Egypt is running in all the republic’s districts for all seats. FJP occupies 70 percent of the coalition’s lists and 90 percent of its candidates for individual seats. The alliance seeks to create a secular state with a basis in Islam, with FJP shaping it, as it is the biggest partner and leader of the coalition.

 The Egyptian Bloc, which was established in August 2011, is a wide coalition that includes fourteen liberal and leftist parties aiming to stand against the Islamic blocs. Several splits shrank the bloc into an alliance of only three parties – the (liberal and under the patronage of a well known businessman, Naguib Sawiris, this party occupies 50 percent of the bloc’s lists), the Egyptian Social Democratic Party (center-left and occupies 40 percent of the lists), and the Tagammu party (left-wing and occupies only 10 percent of the lists).

The Egyptian Bloc is competing in 46 party-based districts and has scattered seats in the individual districts. Coalition members politically agree on the civil and secular nature of the state though they do have differences as they are a mix of liberals and leftists.

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 The Islamist Alliance was established in September 2011, this could be the only alliance with a clear and undisputed manifesto (Islamic reference). It is made up of Al-Nour and Al-Asala (both Salafi), and the Building and Development Party, which is affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood.

Al-Nour leads the coalition and will compete in most of the party-based and individual districts. It is considered to be the most conservative of all the coalitions. This alliance explicitly seeks to establish an Islamic state that would “preserve the rights of minorities” as described by its members.

 The Revolution Continues Alliance is an alliance that came out of the Egyptian Bloc and is similar to it in terms of it being a liberal-. Its members include the Egypt , the (Liberals), and the Socialist Popular Alliance Party (left-wing). The alliance will compete in 33 electoral districts with only 300 candidates on its lists and 50 for the individual seats. It defends the civil and secular nature of the state and guarantees social security programs for citizens.

Non-allied parties There are a large number of parties that have decided to run in the elections without forming alliances. With the exception the following parties: the Center Party (Islamic base), the Justice Party (Centrist), the and the New (both Liberal). These parties have low popular support and low levels of political professionalism, forcing them to depend primarily on personal and family connections in the individual districts in order to obtain a seat in parliament.

Perhaps the most powerful of these parties, the , will compete alone in most of the party-based and individual districts following its withdrawal from the Democratic Alliance for Egypt.

Parties that emanated from the dissolved National Party Approximately 12 parties that are contesting the elections are derived from the dissolved National Party, and most of their leaders are former members of the Egyptian parliament. These parties do not rely on certain currents of thoughts or ideologies, but run on tribal links in remote rural areas and the Sinai Peninsula.

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The Main Election Challenges Facing the Parties Despite the great freedom that the January 25 revolution has offered political parties, most of them face several challenges in the coming elections.

First: The administrative arm of the government, which selected an unrevised database that produced identity cards that didn’t show who was prohibited from voting, people such as those on the run from the law particularly in the south of Egypt and those doing their military service of the government is weak. The judge supervising the elections won’t recognize any of these restrictions, given the extent of the weakness of these databases.

Second: Most competing parties face the reality of the state’s weak security. Even though the army pledged to work with the police to secure the progress of the electoral process, many doubt the security forces’ ability to protect voting committees and ensure the free will of voters.

Third: Most parties suffer from a lack of popularity because of the newness of the vast majority of them. The street is not particularly indoctrinated and won’t usually vote according to the programs and ideological directions of the different parties. This will increase the chances of Islamic parties, most of which will gain votes simply because they are Islamic.

Finally: The different parties face the challenge of connecting with and allowing other parties that derive from the National party to compete in the elections, as well as delaying the law of political isolation until after the deadline for nomination submissions, a situation that threatens the chances of new parties and other political forces, especially in sectarian and tribal regions where it is expected that the remnants of old parties will take control.

Conclusion

There are high hopes that the Egyptian elections will end the transitional period that has increased not only suffering, but also the fear of military rule; there are also growing expectations that the elections will be fairly honest. Egyptians hope for results that will reflect the will of the people and be representative of most political groups. However, there are a variety of factors that compel political groups and parties to chose between two bad options, including: security problems, conservative military policies that contrast with the spirit of the revolution, imposed military rules on the political process, immature political groups that lack strength in coordination and effectiveness, and the exploitation by some Islamic groups of religious slogans to attract the votes of millions of simple people who are not necessarily politicized. They either have to accept the rules of the electoral game that are not revolutionary and imposed by the

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Military Council, or boycott the elections and give the military and counter-revolutionary forces the chance to postpone handing power to a civilian authority.

Some of these scenarios do not exclude the possibility that chaos and security problems may stop the election process halfway. This could lead to a second wave of revolt and to undesired confrontations between the people and the military. The worst-case scenario would be if the elections occur in the midst of breaches in security and administration that would lead to results that are not representative of the will of the people and not acceptable to the revolutionaries, something that would lead to the same results that were reached in the past. The scenario of fair elections and the peaceful transition from a military rule to a civilian one is the last thing any observer is expecting, as there are no signs on the ground to support it.

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