Bus Soft Factors Final Report Nov 09 (6).Docx
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The Role of Soft Measures in Influencing Patronage Growth and Modal Split in the Bus Market in England Final Report Department for Transport October 2009 Prepared by: .. Approved by: ...... Sarah Robson Irvine Piczenik Principal Consultant Regional Director The Role of Soft Measures in Influencing Patronage Growth and Modal Split in the Bus Market in England Rev No Comments Date 1 Maps included in the appendices 01/05/09 2 Incorporation of final segmented and unsegmented values 16/10/09 3 Final Report 18/11/09 Lynnfield House, Church Street, Altrincham, Cheshire, WA14 4DZ Telephone: 0161 927 8200 Fax: 0161 927 8499 Website: http://www.aecom.com Job No Reference Date Created February 2009 This document has been prepared by AECOM for the sole use of our client (the “Client”) and in accordance with generally accepted consultancy principles, the budget for fees and the terms of reference agreed b etween AECOM and the Client. Any i nformation pr ovided b y t hird par ties and referred to herein has not been checked or verified by AECOM, unless otherwise expressly stated in the document. No third party may rely upon this document without the prior and express written agreement of AECOM. c:\documents and settings\smithcr\my documents\bus soft factors final report nov 09 (6).docx Table of Contents Executive Summary .................................................................................................................... 3 Study Overview ................................................................................................................. 3 Definition of Soft Measures ............................................................................................... 3 Study Methodology ........................................................................................................... 4 Phase 2 Findings .............................................................................................................. 6 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 11 1.0 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 11 1.1 Study Objectives ................................................................................................. 12 1.2 Methodology ....................................................................................................... 12 1.3 Format of Report ................................................................................................. 13 2 Literature Review .......................................................................................................... 15 2.0 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 15 2.1 Soft Factor Analysis: Issues and Challenges ..................................................... 15 2.2 Definition of Softer Factors to Encourage Bus Use ............................................ 16 2.3 Evidence on Values of Softer Interventions ........................................................ 17 2.4 Impacts of Soft Factors ....................................................................................... 20 2.5 Conclusions ........................................................................................................ 23 3 Case Study Analysis ..................................................................................................... 26 3.0 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 26 3.1 Goldline 66 Warwick ........................................................................................... 26 3.2 FTR Leeds .......................................................................................................... 28 3.3 Warrington Interchange ...................................................................................... 30 3.4 Cambridgeshire Citibus ...................................................................................... 33 3.5 MORE – Wilts and Dorset ................................................................................... 35 3.6 Kent Fastrack ...................................................................................................... 37 3.7 Hull Interchange .................................................................................................. 38 3.8 Nottingham Route 30 .......................................................................................... 40 3.9 Go Ahead North East .......................................................................................... 42 3.10 Blazefield Witch Way .......................................................................................... 44 3.11 Conclusions ........................................................................................................ 47 4 Case Studies: Qualitative Research ............................................................................ 49 4.0 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 49 4.1 Quantitative Analysis .......................................................................................... 49 4.2 Qualitative Analysis............................................................................................. 56 4.3 Summary and Conclusions ................................................................................. 66 5 Quantitative Research Phase....................................................................................... 70 5.0 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 70 5.1 Questionnaire Design ......................................................................................... 70 5.2 Sampling ............................................................................................................. 73 5.3 Survey Results .................................................................................................... 74 5.4 Conclusions ........................................................................................................ 81 6 Modelling Outputs ......................................................................................................... 83 6.0 Introduction and Background .............................................................................. 83 6.1 Elasticity Based Demand Model and Valuation of Soft Bus Attributes ............... 84 6.2 Valuation of Soft Bus Attributes .......................................................................... 89 6.3 Information Stated Preference ............................................................................ 93 6.4 Mode Choice Demand Model ............................................................................. 95 6.5 Route Choice Models ......................................................................................... 98 6.6 Fares Simplification Model ................................................................................ 101 6.7 NTS-Based Analysis ......................................................................................... 105 7 Comparative Assessment .......................................................................................... 110 7.0 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 110 7.1 Consistency of Modelling Results ..................................................................... 110 7.2 Behavioural Response and Forecasts .............................................................. 117 7.3 Comparison with Other Forecasts .................................................................... 122 7.4 Relationship between Hard and Soft Factors ................................................... 123 7.5 Soft Factor Ratings ........................................................................................... 124 7.6 Soft Factor Impacts on Travel Demand ............................................................ 125 8 Conclusions and Recommendations ........................................................................ 127 8.0 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 127 8.1 Conclusions from Phase 1 of the Study ........................................................... 127 8.2 Conclusions from the Case Studies.................................................................. 127 8.3 Conclusions from the Model Development ....................................................... 128 8.4 Application of Soft Factor Values ...................................................................... 133 8.5 Recommendations ............................................................................................ 133 Appendix A: Detailed Study Methodology ............................................................................ 135 Appendix C: Case Study Route Maps ................................................................................... 241 Appendix D: Attitudinal Awareness and Impact of Bus Features ...................................... 247 Appendix E: Final Unpacking Model Estimations ................................................................ 252 Appendix F: Final Information Stated Preference Model Estimations ............................... 255 Appendix G: Full Mode