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Yellow Yellow 2 R= 255 R= 213 G= 255 G= 206 B= 0 B= 146 Orange Orange 2 R= 244 R= 203 G= 121 G= 125 B= 32 B= 101 Magenta Mag 2 VIEW FROM THE R= 236 R= 182 G= 0 G= 114 B= 14- B= 146 Red Red 2 R= 237 R= 239 G= 28 G= 63 LEADING EDGE B= 36 B= 107 Lt Green LG2 R= 141 R= 156 G= 198 G= 162 CHRIS KUNSTADTER | XL INSURANCE | FEBRUARY 2012 B= 63 B=63 Green Green 2 R= 57 R= 0 G= 181 G= 137 B= 74 B= 143 Cyan Cyan 2 R= 0 R= 0 G= 174 G= 182 B= 239 B= 190 Dk Blue DB2 R= 45 R= 0 G= 49 G= 65 B= 146 B= 89 © 2011, XL Group plc companies. All rights reserved. MAKE YOUR WORLD GO State of the Global Insurance Market The good news Insurance market profitable despite underwriting losses Capitalization remains solid Stock markets stable The bad news 2011 – worst year ever for natural catastrophes Reinsurance market taking large losses Historically low investment yields Political and economic turmoil © 2011, XL Group plc companies. All rights reserved. MAKE YOUR WORLD GO 2 2010 and 2011 Natural Catastrophe Losses 2010 Economic losses: $105 billion Insured losses: $42 billion 2011 Economic losses: $380 billion Insured losses: $152 billion 5 of the top 14 most costly catastrophes in history have occurred within the past two years © 2011, XL Group plc companies. All rights reserved. MAKE YOUR WORLD GO 3 2010 and 2011 Natural Catastrophes Reinsurers’ shares of largest insured losses $40,000,000,000 $30,000,000,000 40% $20,000,000,000 Reinsurer Share Primary Insurer Share $10,000,000,000 73% 60% 95% 44% $0 Japan Quake New Zealand Thailand Chile Quake Australia & Tsunami Quake Floods (Feb 2010) Cyclone & (Mar 2011) (Feb 2011) (Aug-Nov Floods 2011) (Jan-Feb 2011) Source: www.iii.org © 2011, XL Group plc companies. All rights reserved. MAKE YOUR WORLD GO 4 Space Insurance in Perspective Worldwide insurance premiums – 2010 Life Non-Life $2.5t $1.8t Aerospace Personal All lines Commercial $6.3b $4.3t $1.1t Space Non-life (P&C) $900m $1.8t All other commercial Space insurance as a Commercial percentage of worldwide $1.1t Aviation insurance premiums: $900m / $4.3t = 0.02% Aerospace $6.3b Source: www.iii.org © 2011, XL Group plc companies. All rights reserved. MAKE YOUR WORLD GO 5 State of the Space Industry The good news New manufacturers, operators and technologies Infrastructure build-out continues Privatization ramps up Satellite orders remain stable The bad news Government support waning Satellite and launch delays affect income New launch vehicles pose challenges Environmental factors unresolved © 2011, XL Group plc companies. All rights reserved. MAKE YOUR WORLD GO 6 Launches to Orbit By launch vehicle, insured and uninsured 90 80 OTHER 70 FALCON H-IIA/B 60 ZENIT 50 ATLAS 40 DELTA 30 ARIANE 20 PROTON LONG MARCH 10 SOYUZ 0 Other = Athena, Dnepr, GSLV, Kosmos, KT-1, Minotaur, M-V, Naro, Pegasus, PSLV, Rokot, Safir, Shaviyt, Shtil, Shuttle, Start, Strela, Taurus, Titan, Tsiklon, Unha, Volna © 2011, XL Group plc companies. All rights reserved. MAKE YOUR WORLD GO 7 Insured GEO Satellites Launched By launch vehicle 30 25 SOYUZ 20 DELTA LONG MARCH 15 ATLAS ZENIT 10 PROTON 5 ARIANE 0 © 2011, XL Group plc companies. All rights reserved. MAKE YOUR WORLD GO 8 Insured GEO Satellites Launched By satellite manufacturer 30 MELCO IAI 25 ENERGIA KHRUNICHEV 20 ISRO CAST 15 RESHETNEV LM 10 ORBITAL BOEING 5 ASTRIUM TAS 0 SS/L © 2011, XL Group plc companies. All rights reserved. MAKE YOUR WORLD GO 9 Commercial GEO Satellites In Orbit By operator, as of January 2012 50 operators have 306 satellites (176 insured = 58%) 33 operators have 20% of the in-orbit fleet = 63 satellites 3 operators have 40% (51 insured = 81%) of the in-orbit fleet = 122 satellites 9 operators have 20% (66 insured = 54%) of the in-orbit fleet = 61 satellites (31 insured = 51%) 5 operators have 20% of the in-orbit fleet = 60 satellites (26 insured = 43%) © 2011, XL Group plc companies. All rights reserved. MAKE YOUR WORLD GO 10 Insured GEO Satellites In Orbit By satellite manufacturer, as of January 2012 176 satellites OTHER LM ORBITAL 21 31 18 ASTRIUM BOEING 29 24 SS/L TAS 24 28 Other = CAST, Energiya, IAI, ISRO, Khrunichev, MELCO, Reshetnev © 2011, XL Group plc companies. All rights reserved. MAKE YOUR WORLD GO 11 Market In Orbit Exposure All insured satellites in orbit 250 $25 Aggregate Market exposure, $ exposure, Market Aggregate 200 $20 150 $15 100 $10 Unit Unit count billions 50 $5 0 $0 Insured Satellites (left scale) Market Exposure (right scale) © 2011, XL Group plc companies. All rights reserved. MAKE YOUR WORLD GO 12 Market Exposure Profile All insured satellites in orbit, as of January 2012 $500,000,000 $400,000,000 200 satellites $300,000,000 Average value $128m $200,000,000 Exposure per Satellite Exposure $100,000,000 $0 © 2011, XL Group plc companies. All rights reserved. MAKE YOUR WORLD GO 13 © © 2011, XL Group 10 In Insured L plc ° companies.rights All reserved. increments, as of January 2012 as ofJanuary increments, of stable orbit) drift stable of Location Satellites $22.0b $22.0b of libration (positions libration ofpoints ( 176 satellites) MAKEYOUR WORLD GO in GEO GEO in = 255 Americas ° L and75 $2,500,000,000 by Orbital Orbital Slotby ° 13 $2,000,000,000 East East 11 Longitude 10 EMEA $1,500,000,000 8 8 7 7 8 10 $1,000,000,000 10 6 6 6 8 L 3 6 6 Asia/Pacific 5 4 3 4 3 $500,000,000 + $ 2 6 1.4b 5 (24 3 satellites) 1 2 3 2 $0 LEO in ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° 189.9 199.9 209.9 219.9 229.9 239.9 249.9 259.9 269.9 279.9 289.9 299.9 309.9 319.9 329.9 339.9 349.9 359.9 009.9 019.9 029.9 039.9 049.9 059.9 069.9 079.9 089.9 099.9 109.9 119.9 129.9 139.9 149.9 159.9 169.9 179.9 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° 180.0 190.0 200.0 210.0 220.0 230.0 240.0 250.0 260.0 270.0 280.0 290.0 300.0 310.0 320.0 330.0 340.0 350.0 000.0 010.0 020.0 030.0 040.0 050.0 060.0 070.0 080.0 090.0 100.0 110.0 120.0 130.0 140.0 150.0 160.0 170.0 14 Market Premium and Claims $2,000,000,000 $1,500,000,000 $1,000,000,000 $500,000,000 $0 Earned Premium (net of brokerage and NCBs) Incurred Losses (paid and outstanding) © 2011, XL Group plc companies. All rights reserved. MAKE YOUR WORLD GO 15 Market Premium by Policy Type $1,000,000,000 $750,000,000 $500,000,000 $250,000,000 $0 Launch (L+1, LVF, etc.) policies In-Orbit policies © 2011, XL Group plc companies. All rights reserved. MAKE YOUR WORLD GO 16 Split of Premium by Currency Market premium, 2011 Other* JPY EUR USD * Other is CAD, GBP, NOK, RUB, SEK © 2011, XL Group plc companies. All rights reserved. MAKE YOUR WORLD GO 17 Premium Flow – 2008-2011 Based on date of attachment of risk $1,000,000,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 $750,000,000 $500,000,000 $250,000,000 $0 © 2011, XL Group plc companies. All rights reserved. MAKE YOUR WORLD GO 18 Coverage Ratio Premium vs peak insured value $1,000,000,000 276% 120% $750,000,000 $500,000,000 $250,000,000 $0 Market Premium Peak Insured Value © 2011, XL Group plc companies. All rights reserved. MAKE YOUR WORLD GO 19 Claims Flow – 2008-2011 Based on date of loss $750,000,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 $500,000,000 $250,000,000 $0 © 2011, XL Group plc companies. All rights reserved. MAKE YOUR WORLD GO 20 Losses by Cause $800,000,000 $600,000,000 $400,000,000 $200,000,000 $0 Launch Vehicle Satellite © 2011, XL Group plc companies. All rights reserved. MAKE YOUR WORLD GO 21 Insured Losses by Phase of Mission Launch plus first year in orbit, since 2000 Remainder of First Year 17% Launch Vehicle Flight 38% First Two Months In Orbit 45% © 2011, XL Group plc companies. All rights reserved. MAKE YOUR WORLD GO 22 Time to Settle Claims Since 2000 5 2000 to 2004 2005 to present 4 Average 267 days Average 135 days Years from 3 Proof of LossofLossProof to Claim Payment 2 to Payment ofClaimPayment to 1 Years from Years 0 1 Years from Date of Loss Date ofLoss to 2 Proof of Loss to Proof ofLossProof to 3 Years from Years 4 © 2011, XL Group plc companies. All rights reserved. MAKE YOUR WORLD GO 23 Market Rate Change Annual average rate change vs previous year 40% 20% Rates increased 0% -20% Rates decreased -40% Launch rate vs previous year In-orbit rate vs previous year © 2011, XL Group plc companies. All rights reserved. MAKE YOUR WORLD GO 24 The Market Cycle Profitability Profits Rise Increased Capacity Rates Increase Seek Market Share Flight to Quality Relaxed Underwriting Hard Soft Market Market Capacity Decrease Rates Decrease stuck We are here? Insolvencies/Withdrawals Inadequate^ Rates Inadequate Reserves Mounting Losses © 2011, XL Group plc companies. All rights reserved. MAKE YOUR WORLD GO 25 The Shape of Things to Come Copernicus Galileo © 2011, XL Group plc companies.
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