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Curve-Fitting and Econometric Oil Production Models in Brazil

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Curve-Fitting and Econometric Oil Production Models in Brazil CURVE-FITTING AND ECONOMETRIC OIL PRODUCTION MODELS IN BRAZIL Larissa Nogueira Hallack Tese de Doutorado apresentada ao Programa de Pós-graduação em Planejamento Energético, COPPE, da Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, como parte dos requisitos necessários à obtenção do título de Doutor em Planejamento Energético. Orientador(es): Alexandre Salem Szklo Amaro Olímpio Pereira Júnior Rio de Janeiro Março de 2019 CURVE-FITTING AND ECONOMETRIC OIL PRODUCTION MODELS IN BRAZIL Larissa Nogueira Hallack TESE SUBMETIDA AO CORPO DOCENTE DO INSTITUTO ALBERTO LUIZ COIMBRA DE PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO E PESQUISA DE ENGENHARIA (COPPE) DA UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DO RIO DE JANEIRO COMO PARTE DOS REQUISITOS NECESSÁRIOS PARA A OBTENÇÃO DO GRAU DE DOUTOR EM CIÊNCIAS EM PLANEJAMENTO ENERGÉTICO. Examinada por: ________________________________________________ Prof. Alexandre Salem Szklo, D.Sc. ________________________________________________ Prof. Amaro Olímpio Pereira Júnior, D.Sc. ________________________________________________ Prof. Roberto Schaeffer, Ph.D. ________________________________________________ Prof. Virgílio José Martins Ferreira Filho, D.Sc. ________________________________________________ José Gustavo Féres, Ph.D. RIO DE JANEIRO, RJ - BRASIL MARÇO DE 2019 Hallack, Larissa Nogueira Curve-fitting and Econometric Oil Production Models in Brazil/ Larissa Nogueira Hallack – Rio de Janeiro: UFRJ/COPPE, 2019. XVIII, 157 p.: il.; 29,7 cm. Orientadores: Alexandre Salem Szklo Amaro Olímpio Pereira Júnior Tese (doutorado) – UFRJ/ COPPE/ Programa de Planejamento Energético, 2019. Referências Bibliográficas: p. 129-141. 1. Hubbert. 2. Creaming curve. 3. Cointegration. I. Szklo, Alexandre Salem et al. II. Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, COPPE, Programa de Planejamento Energético. III. Título. iii A todos (as) que conciliaram dias de trabalho com noites de estudo. iv “There is a driving force more powerful than steam, electricity and nuclear power: the will.” (Albert Einstein) “I learned that courage was not the absence of fear, but the triumph over it. The brave man is not he who does not feel afraid, but he who conquers that fear.” (Nelson Mandela) “If you can't fly then run, if you can't run then walk, if you can't walk then crawl, but whatever you do you have to keep moving forward.” (Martin Luther King Jr.) “Say no to protectionism. It is like locking yourself in a dark room. Wind and rain are kept out, but so are light and air.” (Xi Jinping, Chinese President at the World Economic Forum in Davos) “When the wind of change blows, some build walls, while others build windmills.” (Chinese Proverb) “If you do not push the boundaries, you will never know where they are.” (T. S. Eliot) “Time flies over us, but leaves its shadow behind.” (Nathaniel Hawthorne) “The place I love, Brazil, is a three-legged dog. Everyone who's ever loved a three-legged dog knows you can love that dog more than one with a handsome pedigree.” (Adapted from the book The Hard Way on Purpose) “Serenity now. Insanity later.” (159th episode of Seinfeld) “Já que se há de escrever... que ao menos não se esmaguem com palavras as entrelinhas.” (Clarice Lispector) “Eu sei que não sou nada e que talvez nunca tenha tudo. Aparte isso, eu tenho em mim todos os sonhos do mundo.” (Fernando Pessoa) “The key to realizing a dream is to focus not on success but on significance — and then even the small steps and little victories along your path will take on greater meaning.” (Oprah Winfrey) “Dream big, work hard, stay humble.” (Brad Meltzer) v PUBLICATIONS BASED ON THIS THESIS Peer-reviewed journal publications Hallack, L.N., Szklo, A.S., Júnior, A.O.P., Schmidt, J., 2017. Curve-fitting variants to model Brazil’s crude oil offshore post-salt production. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering 159, 230–243. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.petrol.2017.09.015 Hallack, L.N., Szklo, A., 2019. Assessing the exploratory potential in Brazil by applying a creaming curve variant. Energy Policy 129, 672–683. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2019.02.062 Hallack, L.N., Kaufmann, R.K., Szklo, A., 2019. The Effect of Productivity and Country Risk on Development in the Brazilian Pre-salt Province. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy. https://doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2019.1617373 vi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS After changing my work and housing situation in addition to the subject of my thesis, spending one year on Petrobras’ Petroleum Engineering formation in Salvador, and balancing dissertation work with a full-time job, thereby the support of several people I am finally ready to finish this bittersweet journey. I hope to live up to their expectations now. Aos meus pais, Lídia e Nonato (in memorium), por todos os ensinamentos que me permitiram ter a força de vontade necessária para cumprir esta etapa em meio a tantos obstáculos e escassos incentivos. Mãe, obrigada por ter me criado ensinando a importância da educação, da profissão e da independência financeira para uma mulher. Pai, obrigada por ter me ensinado que ‘o importante é não perder tempo com besteiras’ e que ‘só resolve se estudar muito, pouco não adianta’. I want to thank my supervisors, Amaro Pereira Jr., and Alexandre Szklo. I am very grateful to Professor Amaro for initially selecting me to undertake this doctorate, and for his critical review of my qualifying project and thesis. Professor Szklo became my supervisor a few months before my qualifying presentation, just after I came back from Salvador to Rio de Janeiro. He was a pleasant surprise and fundamental to this thesis’ completion. To Szklo, I owe a debt of gratitude for all his patience, reading suggestions, revisions of papers and my thesis, and for opening the opportunity to research at Boston University. I should also give my gratitude to Prof. Robert Kaufmann, who accepted me as a visiting scholar at Boston University and who gave me the opportunity to foster my research vii having contact with the software Rats and learning more about the oil market and Econometric Modeling. Thanks for lending me books and a Mac computer (‘a real pc’), and for explaining to me some Econometric issues incomprehensible at first glance. I am also grateful for the papers we did together when I was at BU. Thank you so much! I am deeply grateful to Johannes Schmidt, from the University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences in Vienna, for all his mentoring with R learning (an essential tool for this thesis), several revisions of papers and suggestions of books. I would not have been able to publish my first paper without Johannes’ cooperation. A heartfelt thank you for all your guidance and help! Thanks to Professors Roberto Schaeffer, Virgílio Ferreira and José Féres for agreeing to be on my committee. A special thanks to Professor Roberto Schaeffer, who was a very attentive professor during this doctorate process. Thanks to Jacqueline Mariano, from the Brazilian petroleum regulatory agency (ANP), for helping me to get some crucial data for this thesis and papers, and ANP (especially Paulo Antunes and Leonardo Pinto) for the data provided. I also thank Kathleen Berger (from the Frederick S. Pardee Management Library at Boston University Questrom School of Business) for spending her time to provide some fundamental data for a paper and consequently this thesis. I thank the excellent colleagues that I met during my journey in Boston, among them Taejin, Yepei, Ilyun, Yingtong, Ling, Ana, Owen, Sam, Radost, Emilie, Lucca, Cordae, Andrea, Kelly, Christie, Kemi, Marcelle, and Dana. I will miss you all and everything in Boston so much. viii Thanks to my Petrobras’ managers Daniela Martinelli and Antônio Pinto for authorizing my eleven-month leave of absence from work, which permitted me to foster this thesis and research in the US. I want to thank folks who somehow contributed to my personal and professional development and with whom I could interact and develop my perception about this thesis’ subject — I thank my colleagues from UO-RIO and the National Coordination of Reserves at Petrobras. A huge thank you to my beloved friends, Débora Rocha e João Paulo Carneiro, for crucial relaxing moments in Rio. Thank you, God, for everything in my life! Lastly, but certainly not least, I want to express my gratitude for my husband, Daniel Hallack, by far the most challenging person to thank. You followed me in each step of this work, you rejoiced during my triumphs, and you helped pick up the pieces when I felt broken. You are the very foundation that has kept me together throughout this process. Thank you for your valuable comments, support, understanding, and companionship. Thanks for loving me and making me feel fulfilled by your side. Above all, thanks for dreaming my dreams with me. To write this ‘acknowledgments’ is already as sweet as I imagined it would be, and I will be forever grateful to all these people for the understanding during some moments of this unconventional academic process, largely done on nights, weekends and vacation days, amidst work compromises and studies’ deadlines. ix Resumo da Tese apresentada à COPPE/UFRJ como parte dos requisitos necessários para a obtenção do grau de Doutor em Ciências (D.Sc.) MODELOS DE AJUSTE DE CURVA E ECONOMÉTRICOS PARA PRODUÇÃO DE PETRÓLEO NO BRASIL Larissa Nogueira Hallack Março/2019 Orientadores: Alexandre Salem Szklo Amaro Olímpio Pereira Júnior Programa: Planejamento Energético Este trabalho desenvolve ciclos de produção de petróleo multi-Hubbert e assimétricos para analisar a produção de petróleo no pós-sal offshore brasileiro. Um modelo híbrido emprega a análise de regressão para explicar o desvio da produção de petróleo em relação à curva de Hubbert. A partir da teoria da curva creaming, esta tese avalia o potencial para descobertas de petróleo no Brasil. Uma variante da curva creaming emprega o tamanho das descobertas dos campos considerando um mesmo fator de recuperação para campos de uma bacia sedimentar.
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