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Government of Norway - Aaa Stable 6 July 2021 Annual Credit Analysis

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Government of Norway - Aaa Stable 6 July 2021 Annual Credit Analysis SOVEREIGN AND SUPRANATIONAL ISSUER IN-DEPTH Government of Norway - Aaa stable 6 July 2021 Annual credit analysis OVERVIEW AND OUTLOOK The credit profile of Norway reflects its large fiscal and external buffers, very strong RATINGS institutions, prudent and effective macroeconomic and fiscal framework, high per-capita Norway wealth, labour market flexibility and strong competitiveness. In addition, the rating reflects Foreign Local Currency Currency Norway's economic resilience, which allowed its credit profile to withstand the challenges Gov. Bond Rating Aaa/STA Aaa/STA arising from the coronavirus pandemic, limiting long term scarring, as the government's Country Ceiling Aaa Aaa strong balance sheet allowed for a significant fiscal response to buffer the shock. TABLE OF CONTENTS The rating also reflects the government's prudent planning for when Norway's hydrocarbon OVERVIEW AND OUTLOOK 1 resources are depleted. Norway has long segregated the domestic economy as much as CREDIT PROFILE 2 possible from volatility in oil revenue by using several tools. Most importantly, it places oil Economic strength score: a1 2 and gas income into a sovereign wealth fund, the Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG), Institutions and governance strength score: aaa 9 which is invested entirely abroad, and has a flexible exchange rate. Fiscal strength score: aaa 13 Credit challenges posed by Norway's demographics and the hydrocarbon sector's lower Susceptibility to event risk score: a 18 contribution to growth and the government's finances over the longer term are manageable. ESG considerations 24 Still, the likelihood of oil prices staying lower for longer means future net transfers to the Scorecard-indicated outcome 25 Comparatives 26 GPFG will be smaller than in the past, such that most growth in the GPFG's value will derive DATA, CHARTS AND REFERENCES 28 from reinvested earnings. The stable outlook on the rating is supported by the resilience of Norway's credit metrics Analyst Contacts to the coronavirus and oil price shocks, as large fiscal buffers and strong institutions have allowed for an effective fiscal response to cushion the impact. At the same time, we expect Daniela Re Fraschini +44.20.7772.1063 Vice President - Senior Analyst the authorities to manage the challenges posed by vulnerabilities in the property market in a [email protected] way that will preserve Norway’s very high creditworthiness. Sean Kou +49.69.70730.938 Downward pressure on the stable outlook and eventually the rating could arise if the prudent Associate Analyst [email protected] macroeconomic and fiscal framework that sustains Norway's strong credit profile weakens significantly, leading to a material and enduring erosion in the country's accumulated fiscal Dietmar Hornung +49.69.70730.790 Associate Managing Director buffers, with a lasting negative impact on its economic and fiscal strength. [email protected] This credit analysis elaborates on Norway’s credit profile in terms of economic strength, Alejandro Olivo +1.212.553.3837 Managing Director institutions and governance strength, fiscal strength and susceptibility to event risk, the four [email protected] main analytic factors in our Sovereign Ratings Methodology. MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE SOVEREIGN AND SUPRANATIONAL CREDIT PROFILE Our determination of a sovereign’s government bond rating is based on consideration of four rating factors: economic strength, institutions and governance strength, fiscal strength and susceptibility to event risk. When a direct and imminent threat becomes a constraint, that can only lower the scorecard-indicated outcome. For more information, please see our Sovereign Ratings Methodology. Economic strength score: a1 Factor 1: Overall score Scale aaa aa1 aa2 aa3 a1 a2 a3 baa1 baa2 baa3 ba1 ba2 ba3 b1 b2 b3 caa1 caa2 caa3 ca + Final - Factor 1: Sub-scores Norway a1 Score for Norway Median of countries with Aaa rating SCALE OF THE GROWTH DYNAMICS ECONOMY NATIONAL INCOME weight 25% weight 10% weight 30% weight 35% Average real GDP (% change) Volatility in real GDP growth (ppts) Nominal GDP ($ bn) GDP per capita (PPP, Intl$) aaa aa a baa ba b caa ca Economic strength evaluates the economic structure, primarily reflected in economic growth, the scale of the economy and wealth, as well as in structural factors that point to a country’s long-term economic robustness and shock-absorption capacity. Adjustments to the economic strength factor score most often reflect our judgement regarding the economy's flexibility, diversity, productivity and labour supply challenges. Note: the initial factor score is shown in light blue in the scale above. In case the initial and final factor scores are the same, only the final score will appear in the table above. Our “a1” assessment of Norway’s economic strength reflects its large economy, low volatility in real GDP growth and strong competitiveness because of the flexibility of its wage-setting model and exchange rate. Moreover, per-capita income is more than double the threshold for a “aaa” assessment among the sovereigns we rate. The “a1” score is in line with Denmark (Aaa stable) and New Zealand (Aaa stable). Exhibit 1 Peer comparison table factor 1: Economic strength United New Norway a1 Median Abu Dhabi China Denmark Qatar Kingdom Zealand Aaa/STA Aa2/STA A1/STA Aaa/STA Aa3/STA Aaa/STA Aa3/STA Final score a1 a1 a1 a1 a1 a1 a1 Initial score a1 baa1 aa3 a1 a3 a1 baa1 Nominal GDP ($ billion) 362.5 358.9 195.3 14,722.8 355.2 2,707.7 208.9 157.9 GDP per capita (PPP, Intl$) 65,800.1 51,267.3 125,740.0 17,191.7 58,932.8 44,116.9 42,018.1 93,508.4 Average real GDP (% change) 1.8 1.9 1.5 5.9 2.1 1.1 3.3 1.3 Volatility in real GDP growth (ppts) 1.0 2.7 4.1 1.8 1.8 3.7 1.7 4.5 Sources: National authorities, IMF and Moody's Investors Service Long-term growth challenges include an ageing population that may further shrink growth in the labour force, which is already characterised by comparatively short working lives relative to average longevity. Moreover, a structural decline in hydrocarbon production and lower oil prices represent a change from many years of high oil prices, which is weighing on economic activity. 2 6 July 2021 Government of Norway - Aaa stable: Annual credit analysis MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE SOVEREIGN AND SUPRANATIONAL Nominal GDP was around $362.5 billion in 2020, broadly in line with Denmark. GDP per-capita on a purchasing power parity basis of $65,800 in 2020 is higher than in Denmark ($58,933) and New Zealand ($42,018) and well above the a1 median ($51,267), but in line with the Aaa-median subfactor score of “aaa” (see Exhibit 2). Average real GDP growth between 2016 and 2025F is slightly below the median of Aaa-rated sovereigns, while its size – as measured in nominal billion US dollars – is around half of the Aaa median. Exhibit 2 The size and growth of Norway's economy are lower thanNetherlands the Aaa median, but wealth levels are considerably higher Average Average real growth GDP (2016 New Zealand Germany 1.0 3.0 Australia 2025F) - 40,000 60,000United States of America 80,000 100,000 120,000 GDP per capita, PPP basis, internationalSingapore $ (2020) 2.5 Canada Luxembourg Denmark 2.0 Median Aaa Norway Sweden Switzerland 1.5 Netherlands AverageGDP growthreal (2016 Germany 1.0 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 110,000 120,000 GDP per capita, PPP basis, international $ (2020) Note: Size of the bubble depicts size of 2019 nominal GDP in US dollars Source: Moody's Investors Service Hydrocarbon sector's contribution to the overall economy will diminish in the longer term The hydrocarbon sector has been an important contributor to economic growth since the government began to fully exploit the economic potential of Norwegian oil and gas reserves in 1971, and has contributed to the government’s vast savings in the Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG). The sector’s contribution to growth diminished following the 2014-16 decline in global oil prices. However, the cost-competitiveness of Norwegian producers has since improved, with operating and development costs declining by 20% and 50%, respectively, from their levels in 2013-14. Norwegian producers' costs, which range from $30 to $55 per barrel, now fall between those of onshore Middle East and North American shale oil production on the global marginal cost curve. The Ministry of Petroleum and Energy cut Norwegian production in 2020 to support faster stabilisation of oil market conditions, which were affected by the coronavirus pandemic. The uncertainty created by the pandemic and deep and temporary decline in oil prices weighed on oil and gas investment in 2020. The decline was cushioned by temporary tax reductions for oil companies introduced by the government in June 2020. Despite a recovery in oil prices this year, petroleum investment is likely to continue to decline in 2021 and 2022, reflecting the completion of a number of large development projects, such as Johan Sverdrup and Johan Castberg that supported investment levels until 2019. However, a temporary tax package, estimated to potentially free-up liquidity for investment equivalent to NOK115 billion over 2020-21, provides the oil companies with an incentive to launch new development projects before the end of 2022, which will support an increase in petroleum investment in 2023 and 2024. The tax changes aim to support oil companies’ cash flow and make new projects more profitable after tax. They also provide oil companies with incentives to launch projects that are now on hold and bring forward investment projects that had been planned to start in the next few years.
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