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1213E Resilient Oligopoly IP Dec 2012 for Design 29 Dec.Indd Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit Case Study Series The Resilient Oligopoly: A Political-Economy of Northern Afghanistan 2001 and Onwards Antonio Giustozzi December 2012 Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit Research for a Better Afghanistan This page has been left blank to facilitate double-sided printing Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit Issues Paper The Resilient Oligopoly: A Political-Economy of Northern Afghanistan 2001 and onwards Dr Antonio Giustozzi Funding for this research was provided by the December 2012 the Embassy of Finland in Kabul, Afghanistan Editing and Layout: Sradda Thapa Cover Photographs: (Top to bottom): Bazaar Day in Jowzjan; Marketplace in Shiberghan; New recruits at the Kabul Military Training Center; Mazar-Hayratan highway (all by Subel Bhandari) AREU Publication Code: 1213E AREU Publication Type: Issues Paper © 2012 Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit. Some rights reserved. This publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted only for non-commercial purposes and with written credit to AREU and the author. Where this publication is reproduced, stored or transmitted electronically, a link to AREU’s website (www.areu.org.af) should be provided. Any use of this publication falling outside of these permissions requires prior written permission of the publisher, the Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit. Permission can be sought by emailing [email protected] or by calling +93 (0) 799 608 548. Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit About the Author Dr Antonio Giustozzi is an independent researcher who took his PhD at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and is currently associated with King’s College London, Department of War Studies. He is the author of several articles and papers on Afghanistan, as well as of three books, War, Politics and Society in Afghanistan, 1978-1992, Koran, Kalashnikov and Laptop: the Neo-Taliban Insurgency, 2002-2007, and Empires of Mud: War and Warlords in Afghanistan, as well as a volume on the role of coercion and violence in state-building, The Art of Coercion. His Policing Afghanistan is currently in press. He also edited a volume on the Taliban, Decoding the New Taliban, featuring contributions by specialists from different backgrounds. About the Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit The Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU) is an independent research institute based in Kabul. AREU’s mission is to inform and influence policy and practice through conducting high-quality, policy-relevant research and actively disseminating the results, and to promote a culture of research and learning. To achieve its mission AREU engages with policymakers, civil society, researchers and students to promote their use of AREU’s research and its library, to strengthen their research capacity, and to create opportunities for analysis, reflection and debate. AREU was established in 2002 by the assistance community working in Afghanistan and has a board of directors with representation from donors, the United Nations and other multilateral agencies, and non-governmental organisations. AREU currently receives core funds from the governments of Finland, Sweden, and Switzerland. Specific projects in 2012 have been funded by the European Commission (EC), the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), the Overseas Development Institute (ODI), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), UN Women, and the United States Institute of Peace (USIP). The embassies of the Netherlands, Sweden, and Finland also supported research projects this year. Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit Acknowledgements The author wishes to thank all those who helped him in carrying out this project, whether by simply accepting to talk to him or by providing information, suggestions, advice and guidance. Special thanks to Mohammad Ali, Florian Broschk, Paul Fishtein, Parviz Hakim, Shoib Najafizada, Eckart Schiewek, among those who accepted to be named. Antonio Giustozzi December 2012 iv The Resilient Oligopoly: A Political-Economy of Northern Afghanistan 2001 and Onwards Table of Contents Glossary .................................................................................... vii Acronyms ................................................................................... vii Executive Summary ........................................................................ 1 1. Introduction ...........................................................................4 1.1 Defining roles ................................................................... 4 2. Northern Afghanistan within the National and International Context ........ 8 2.1 Peculiarities of the North ..................................................... 8 2.2 The North and the other regions ............................................ 9 2.3 Foreign interests ..............................................................10 3. The regional political scene ........................................................ 12 3.1 The local distribution of power ............................................12 3.2 The regional political organisations ....................................... 12 3.3 Political mobilisation .........................................................25 3.4 Mazar-i Sharif: Political Capital of the North? ............................ 33 4. The Economic Scene ................................................................ 34 4.1 Mazar-i Sharif: Economic Capital of the North? ..........................34 4.2 Boom (and bust?) ............................................................. 36 4.3 Smuggling ......................................................................39 4.4 The extractive sector ........................................................ 40 4.5 The energy sector ............................................................ 40 5. Centre-Periphery Relations ......................................................... 41 5.1 The actors......................................................................41 5.2 Power relations with Kabul .................................................. 53 6. Conclusion ............................................................................57 Request for Feedback .................................................................... 62 Recent Publications from AREU ........................................................63 v Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit Table of Contents Boxes Box 1 Main political organisations and groups ........................................13 Box 2 Main political actors .............................................................. 15 Maps Map 1 : Offices of political parties in the districts of Jowzjan (2010) ............16 Map 2: Impact of drought in Northern Afghanistan (Summer 2011) ...............35 Map 3: Deployment of ANA infantry units in Northern Afghanistan, 2012. ......42 Map 4: Taliban courts in Northern Afghanistan, 2012. .............................. 49 Map 5: Militias and non-state armed groups in Northern Afghanistan (mid-2012) .. 53 Figures Figure 1: The triangle of (legal) politics in Northern Afghanistan (circa 2012)...... 20 Tables Table 1: Results of 2010 parliamentary elections in Balkh (Wolesi Jirga) ........22 Table 2: Results of 2010 parliamentary elections in Faryab (Wolesi Jirga) ...... 23 Table 3: Results of 2010 parliamentary elections in Jowzjan (Wolesi Jirga) .... 23 Table 4: Results of 2010 parliamentary elections in Samangan (Wolesi Jirga) .. 24 Table 5: Results of 2010 parliamentary elections in Sar-i Pul (Wolesi Jirga) .... 24 Table 6: Elected members of Wolesi Jirga in 2005 and 2010, by informal affiliation, Northern Afghanistan ............................................... 25 Table 7: Elected members of parliament, Northern region, by ethnicity (2005 and 2010 elections). .............................................................27 Table 8: Percentages obtained by presidential candidates in the North .........28 Table 9: Private ownership of trucks, by province, 2011. .......................... 35 Table 10 Major watersheds of Afghanistan ............................................35 Table 11: Allegiance of key Afghan Government officials in the Northern .......55 vi The Resilient Oligopoly: A Political-Economy of Northern Afghanistan 2001 and Onwards Glossary Arbaki Local armed groups sponsored by the local authorities and managed through a network of personal relations, without any institutionalised relationship. Oligopolist One who has succeeded in accumulating sufficient political, economic, and social power to potentially overwhelm every competitor or rival except for a very few - the other oligopolists. Oligopoly A system where oligopolists operate. Statelet A small state. Acronyms ALP Afghan Local Police ANA Afghan National Army ANP Afghan National Police APRP Afghanistan Peace and Reintegration Program CIP Critical Infrastructure Protection CNPC China National Petroleum Corporation IAGS Illegal Armed Groups MP Member of Parliament NDS National Directorate of Security PRT Provincial Reconstruction Team UNODC United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime vii The Resilient Oligopoly: A Political-Economy of Northern Afghanistan 2001 and Onwards Executive Summary This paper studies the political and social dynamics of Northern Afghanistan, not just from the short-term perspective of political rivalry and personal competition, but also from the wider and longer-term perspective of the resilience and weaknesses of organisations, patronage networks,
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