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Research, Solar Cell Production and Market Implementation of Photovoltaics www.jrc.ec.europa.eu Renewable Energy Unit PV STATUS REPORT 2008 JRC EUROPEAN COMMISSION Institute for Energy The Institute for Energy provides scientific and technical support for the conception, development, implementation and monitoring of community policies related to energy. Special emphasis is given to the security of energy supply and to sustainable and safe energy production. European Commission Joint Research Centre Institute for Energy Contact information Address: Via Enrico Fermi, TP 450, 21027 Ispra (VA), Italy E-mail: [email protected] Tel.:+39 0332 789119 Fax: +39 0332 789268 http://ie.jrc.ec.europa.eu http://www.jrc.ec.europa.eu EUROPEAN COMMISSION DIRECTORATE-GENERAL Joint Research Centre ΊΧ- Institute for Energy PV Status Report 2008 Research, Solar Cell Production and Market Implementation of Photovoltaics September 2008 Arnulf Jäger-Waldau European Commission, DG Joint Research Centre, Institute for Energy, Renewable Energies Unit Via Enrico Fermi 1; TP 450 I - 21020 Ispra, Italia Scientific Technical REFERENCE System on RENEWABLE ENERGY and ENERGY END-USE EFFICIENCY EUR 23604 EN Front cover: Artwork by Jennifer Rundle & Robert Houghton LEGAL NOTICE Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use, which might be made of the following information. The report does not represent any official position of the European Commission, nor do its contents prejudge any future Commission proposals in any areas of Community policy. A great deal of additional information on the European Union is available on the Internet. It can be accessed through the Europa server http://europa.eu/ JRC 48143 EUR 23604 EN ISBN 978-92-79-10122-9 ISSN 1018-5593 DOI 10.2788/1610 Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities © European Communities, 2008 Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged Printed in Belgium PREFACE Spiking oil prices at $ 147 per barrel in July 2008 and speculations when the oil price will exceed $ 200 per barrel have already become a reality. The current dive in oil prices due to the volatility of the financial markets and fears of an economic slowdown have highlighted our strong dependence on oil and have shifted the focus to more abundant fossil energy resources like gas and coal. However, the Gas Crisis at the beginning of 2006 and interruptions of the gas supply in the summer of 2008 due to "maintenance" has demonstrated that Europe is still highly vulnerable with respect to its total energy supply. A possible solution is the diversification of supply countries as well as the diversification of energy sources including renewable energies and Photovoltaics. In March 2007 the European Council endorsed the binding target of a 20% share of renewable energies in the overall EU energy consumption by 2020. Now the question in the European Union is no longer - What can renewable energies contribute to the European energy supply? — but - How can we realise the growth of renewable energy production? The motivation behind the Council Decision is the need to stabilise atmospheric greenhouse gases in the 450 to 550 ppmv range which leads to the necessity to decarbonise our energy supply. Photovoltaics is a key technology option to realise such a shift. The solar resources in Europe and world wide are abundant and can't be monopolised by one country. Regardless for what reasons and how fast the oil price and energy prices will increase in the future, Photovoltaics and other renewable energies are the only ones to offer a reduction of prices rather than an increase in the future. In 2007, the Photovoltaic industry production grew by over 60% reaching a worldwide production volume of 4 GWp of Photovoltaic modules and has become a € 14 billion business. Yearly growth rates over the last five years were in average more than 40%, which makes Photovoltaics one of the fastest growing industries at present. Business analysts predict the market volume to increase to €40 billion in 2010 and expect lower prices for consumers. The trend that thin film Photovoltaics grew faster than the overall PV market continued in 2007. The Seventh Edition of the "PV Status Report" tries to give an overview about the current activities regarding Research, Manufacturing and Market Implementation. I am aware that not every country and development is treated with the same attention, but this would go beyond the scope of this report. Nevertheless, I hope that this report will provide a useful overview about the situation worldwide. The opinion given in this report is based on the current information available to the author, and does not reflect the opinion of the European Commission. Ispra, September 2008 Arnulf Jäger-Waldau European Commission Joint Research Centre; Renewable Energies Unit TABLE OF CONTENT Preface / 1. Introduction 5 2. The World Market 9 3. Japan 18 3.1 Policy to Introduce New Energies in Japan 18 3.2 Implementation of Photovoltaics 21 3.3 NEDO PV Programme 23 3.4 Japanese Market Situation 29 3.5 Solar Companies 31 4. People's Republic of China 40 4.1 PV Resources and Utilisation 41 4.2 Solar Companies >. 45 5. Taiwan 53 5.1 Solar Companies 54 6. The United States 58 6.1 Incentives supporting PV 62 6.2 Solar Energy Technologies Programme 69 6.3 Very High Efficiency Solar Cell Programme 80 6.4 The US PV-Industry Roadmap 81 6.5 Solar Companies 84 7. The European Union 89 7.1 Marketand Implementation in the European Union 93 7.2 PV Research in Europe 105 7.3 Solar Companies 112 8. Outlook 122 9. Acknowledgements 127 10. References 128 1. INTRODUCTION Production data for the global cell production in 2007 vary quite significantly between 3,733 MW [Pho 2008] and 4,279 MW [Pvn 2008]. The high end of the data published by Photon International includes a number of estimated production data as indicated in their statistics. PV News, on the other hand, did not list a number of Chinese and Taiwanese manufacturers. According to our own data, collected from various companies and colleagues and then compared to the PV News and Photon 2007 production, data led to an estimate of 4,022 MW (Fig. 1). Despite the still tight silicon supply situation the production grew more than 50%. °- 1.500 > Q. 1.000 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Fig. 1 : World ΡV Cell/Module Production from 1990 to 2007 (data source: PV News [Pvn 2008], Photon International [Pho 2008] and own analysis Since 2003, total PV production grew in average by almost 50%, whereas the thin film segment - starting from a very low level - grew in average by over 80% and reached 400 MW or 10%) of total PV production in 2007. The high growth rate of thin film production and the increase of the total production share indicate that the thin film technology is gaining more and more acceptance. A thin film market share of 25 to 30% in 2010 seems not to be unrealistic. This takes into account the fact that more and more PV manufacturers are diversifying their production portfolio. It should be noted that the current thin film market leader First Solar will reach an annual production capacity of more than 1 GW by 2010. Sharp (Japan), Showa Shell Sekiyu (Japan) and Best Solar (PRC) announced they would build thin film factories with at least 1 GW capacity to be operational in 2010 [Bes 2008, Sha 2007] and 2011 [Sho 2008] respectively. In addition, a number of other thin film manufacturers are aiming at 500 MW production capacities in that time frame. Public traded companies manufacturing solar products, or offering related services, are attracting a growing number of private and institutional investors. Worldwide, more than US $148 billion (€] 102 billion) in new funding entered the renewable energy and energy efficiency sectors in 2007, up 60% from 2006, even as the credit crunch began to put stress on the financial markets toward the end of the year. Investments in solar power grew most rapidly, reaching US $28.6 billion (€ 19.7 billion) or 19%» of new capital with average annual growth rates of more than 250% since 2004. This development is driven by the emergence of larger project financings. Another interesting figure is the growth of venture capital from US $1.4 billion (€ 0.97 billion) in 2006 to US $3.2 billion (€ 2.2 billion) in 2007. The number of consulting companies and financial institutions offering market studies and investment opportunities has considerably increased in the last few years and business analysts are very confident, that despite raising interest rates, the Photovoltaics sector is in a healthy condition. Notwithstanding the quite massive stock price adjustments in the first half of 2008 and the stock market sell out in September 2008 as a result of the financial turmoil the total market capitalisation of the 30 PPVX2 (Photon Pholtovoltaic stock index) companies3 was with € 55 billion about the same at the end of September 2008 than in 2007. Market predictions for the 2010 PV market vary between 6 GW (Navigant conservative scenario), 7 to 8 GW (EPIA, Bank Sarasin, LBBW) and 17 GW (Photon Consulting). Massive capacity increases are underway or announced and if all of them are realised, the worldwide production capacity for solar cells would exceed 35 GW at the end ofin 2010. This indicates that even with the most optimistic market growth expectations, the planned capacity increases are way above the market growth. The consequence would be a quite low utilisation rate and consequently a shift from the demand-driven markets of the last years to an oversupplied market which will increase the pressure on the margins.
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