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Solar Photovoltaics Deployment Policy Design Solar Photovoltaics Deployment Policy Design vorgelegt von Diplom-Wirtschaftsingenieur Thilo Grau aus Bietigheim-Bissingen von der Fakultät VII – Wirtschaft und Management der Technischen Universität Berlin zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades Doktor der Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Dr. rer. oec. - genehmigte Dissertation Promotionsausschuss: Vorsitzender: Prof. Dr. Christian von Hirschhausen Gutachter: Prof. Karsten Neuhoff, Ph.D. Gutachter: Prof. Dr. Rolf Wüstenhagen Tag der wissenschaftlichen Aussprache: 9. Mai 2014 Berlin 2014 D 83 Abstract Solar energy is the largest energy resource on earth, with resources being clean, sustainable and distributed around the globe. Photovoltaics (PV) technologies directly convert sunlight to electricity. Solar PV can provide multiple economic and environmental benefits to society, and has the highest learning rate in the energy world. The rapid market growth of PV in recent years has been driven by policies to support deployment and technology development. However, PV electricity in many countries is not yet competitive with conventional power generation sources, and therefore needs a financing framework with stable returns. Economic justifications to further support PV technologies include their substitution for fossil fuel technologies with environmental externalities, and the encouragement of technological learning. This dissertation aims to contribute to the development and design of effective and efficient policies to remunerate solar PV power generation. The doctoral thesis consists of three self- contained papers, which can be read independently. Paper I ‘Survey of Photovoltaic Industry and Policy in Germany and China’ focuses on two countries with significant PV policy achievements. While Germany has been the largest market for PV installations for many years, China has become the largest manufacturer of solar cells and modules. Based on an assessment of the technical potential of PV technologies and their required cost reductions to become a competitive electricity source, the paper analyzes the industry structure as well as PV policies used by Germany and China to support research and development, investment in manufacturing plants, and deployment. Paper II ‘Responsive Feed-in Tariff Adjustment to Dynamic Technology Development’ develops an analytic model to simulate PV installations and feed-in tariffs based on project profitability and project duration. As PV deployment around the world has been mainly driven by feed-in tariff policies, this model allows to analyze the effectiveness of different feed-in tariff designs. The analytic framework accurately replicates observed PV market developments in Germany, and is used to analyze different feed-in tariff adjustment mechanisms against multiple PV system price scenarios. Paper III ‘Comparison of Feed-in Tariffs and Tenders to Remunerate Solar Power Generation’ analyzes the trade-offs for using feed-in tariffs or tenders to remunerate different scales of PV projects. The paper quantifies deployment effectiveness of flexible feed-in tariff schemes across project sizes and uses semi-structured interviews with German and French project developers to explore how feed-in tariffs and tenders impact cost of capital and transaction costs. Keywords: Solar photovoltaic; Technology policy design; Feed-in tariff; Tender; Renewable energy deployment. i Zusammenfassung Solarenergie ist die größte Energieressource auf der Erde und zeichnet sich durch Nachhaltigkeit, Sauberkeit und globale Verfügbarkeit aus. Photovoltaik (PV) Technologien wandeln Sonnenlicht direkt in elektrische Energie um. Die Photovoltaik bietet der Menschheit zahlreiche ökonomische und ökologische Vorteile und besitzt die höchste Lernrate in der Energiewelt. Politikinstrumente zur Förderung des Ausbaus und der technologischen Entwicklung haben das schnelle Marktwachstum der PV in den letzten Jahren ermöglicht. Allerdings ist PV Strom in vielen Ländern noch nicht wettbewerbsfähig mit Strom aus konventionellen Kraftwerken und benötigt daher stabile finanzielle Rahmenbedingungen. Die weitere Förderung der Photovoltaik wird ökonomisch durch die Substitution fossiler Brennstofftechnologien mit externen Kosten und die Unterstützung technologischer Entwicklung begründet. Diese Dissertation hat das Ziel einen Beitrag zu Entwicklung und Design effektiver und effizienter Politikinstrumente zur Vergütung solarer Stromerzeugung zu leisten. Die Dissertation besteht aus drei eigenständigen Arbeiten, die unabhängig voneinander gelesen werden können. Artikel I ‘Survey of Photovoltaic Industry and Policy in Germany and China’ analysiert zwei Länder mit signifikanten PV politischen Errungenschaften. Während Deutschland für viele Jahre der größte Markt für PV Installationen war, entwickelte sich China zum größten Produzenten von Solarzellen und –modulen. Basierend auf einer Berechnung des technischen Potenzials verschiedener PV Technologien und der erforderlichen Kostenreduktionen zur Erreichung der Wettbewerbsfähigkeit untersucht der Artikel für beide Länder Industriestruktur und Politikinstrumente zur Förderung von Ausbau, Investitionen in Produktionsanlagen, sowie Forschung und Entwicklung. Artikel II ‘Responsive Feed-in Tariff Adjustment to Dynamic Technology Development’ entwickelt ein analytisches Modell zur Simulation von PV Installationen und Einspeisevergütungen. Da der globale PV Ausbau hauptsächlich durch Einspeisevergütungen ermöglicht wurde, erlaubt dieses Modell die Analyse der Effektivität unterschiedlicher Vergütungssysteme. Das Modell bildet die beobachteten Marktentwicklungen in Deutschland präzise ab, und dient der Untersuchung verschiedener Anpassungsmechanismen für Einspeisevergütungen im Rahmen zahlreicher Systempreis Szenarien. Artikel III ‘Comparison of Feed-in Tariffs and Tenders to Remunerate Solar Power Generation’ untersucht Einspeisevergütungen und Ausschreibungen zur Förderung unterschiedlicher PV Projektgrößen. Der Artikel quantifiziert die Effektivität flexibler Einspeisevergütungs- mechanismen für verschiedene Projektgrößen und nutzt semi-strukturierte Interviews mit deutschen und französischen Projektentwicklern um die Auswirkungen von Einspeise- vergütungen und Ausschreibungen auf Kapitalkosten und Transaktionskosten zu erforschen. Schlüsselwörter: Solar Photovoltaik; Technologie Politik Design; Einspeisevergütung; Ausschreibung; Erneuerbare Energien Ausbau. ii Acknowledgements Writing my Ph.D. dissertation was an energy intensive process and a greatly rewarding time. I therefore want to acknowledge the support of all people who accompanied me on this way during the last years. First of all, I am highly grateful to Prof. Karsten Neuhoff for being my Ph.D. supervisor at the German Institute for Economic Research and the Technical University in Berlin, for offering me the opportunity to write this dissertation on research topics I am passionate about, and for all his continuous and inspiring feedback and promotion throughout the years. I want to thank Prof. Rolf Wüstenhagen for being my second evaluator and for all his support from far University of St.Gallen. I am also thankful to Prof. Christian von Hirschhausen for chairing my doctoral committee. Additionally, I want to thank all colleagues who supported me during the last years. In particular, I am grateful to Molin Huo for being a great co-author, for teaching me about Chinese culture and PV policy, and for showing me around the impressive sights of Beijing. I am thankful to Anne Schopp for being such a pleasant and considerate roommate, and to Jochen Diekmann and Sebastian Schwenen for their constructive comments on various papers included in this dissertation. I am grateful to Prof. Qi Ye, Tsinghua University, and Climate Policy Initiative, for hosting me as a visiting researcher in Beijing for several months in 2011 and 2012, and want to thank all people who made this time a valuable and enriching experience, in particular Valerie and Zuo Wen. I also want to thank many other colleagues, referees and conference participants all over the world for helpful feedback and interesting discussions, in particular Frauke, Wolf, Steffen, Meagan, Matthew and Isabel, as well as all former colleagues at Climate Policy Initiative for the great times spent together in Berlin, San Francisco, Venice, and Beijing. Moreover, I am deeply grateful to my friends and family for accompanying me through all happy and challenging stages of life. Amelie, you are my little sunshine, thanks for being such a wonderful child of god. Kathi and Lutz, I am grateful for your close and cordial friendship which I could always count on. Christian, Eliza and Wu Liang, thanks for introducing me to Christian, Jewish and Buddhist culture and religion in Berlin and Beijing. Miggi, Johannes and Stephi, thanks for being such amazing friends. Heiko, thanks for just being the best brother in the world. Schließlich möchte ich mich von ganzem Herzen bei meinen Eltern für Ihre stetige Unterstützung meines Lebensweges bedanken. Mam und Dad, Danke dass Ihr mich gelehrt habt niemals im Leben aufzugeben und immer eine positive Grundeinstellung zum Leben zu bewahren. Euch möchte ich diese Dissertation widmen. Thilo Grau iii Rechtliche Erklärung Hiermit versichere ich dass ich die vorliegende Dissertation selbständig und nur unter Verwendung der angegebenen Literatur und Hilfsmittel angefertigt habe. Die Arbeit wurde noch keiner Prüfungsbehörde in gleicher oder ähnlicher Form vorgelegt. Berlin, Mai 2014 Thilo Grau iv “All religions, arts and sciences
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