World's Central Banker

ww Capital Finance International

AS WORLD ECONOMIES CONVERGE Spring 2017 GBP 9.95 // EUR 14.95 USD 15.95

Janet Yellen, Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System: WORLD’S CENTRAL BANKER ALSO IN THIS ISSUE // WORLD BANK: GLOBAL GROWTH REVERSAL // NASDAQ: ESG REPORTING WBG: SWFs GOING GREEN // EIB: EUROPE’S INVESTMENT OFFENSIVE IS WORKING IFC: ENERGY STORAGE & EMERGING MARKETS // E&Y ARGENTINA: MEASURES TO IMPROVE EMPLOYMENT BREITLING.COM

The superlative-charged chronograph. 50 mm case in Breitlight®. Exclusive Manufacture Breitling Caliber B12 with 24-hour military-style display. Ofﬁ cially chronometer-certiﬁ ed.

2 CFI.co | Capital Finance International

BR18462_Avenger Hurricane_420x281_IFC.indd Toutes les pages 16/02/2017 08:50 Spring 2017 Issue

BREITLING.COM

The superlative-charged chronograph. 50 mm case in Breitlight®. Exclusive Manufacture Breitling Caliber B12 with 24-hour military-style display. Ofﬁ cially chronometer-certiﬁ ed.

CFI.co | Capital Finance International 3

BR18462_Avenger Hurricane_420x281_IFC.indd Toutes les pages 16/02/2017 08:50 For those who are driven. T he new Flying Spur V8. Performance and determination have helped deliver you success. Now stay ahead with cutting edge technology in a handcrafted interior – all serenely positioned behind a 4.0 litre V8 engine that can carry you to 183 mph and propel you to 60 mph in less than five seconds. 4 CFI.co | Capital Finance International

The name ‘Bentley’ and the ‘B’ in wings device are registered trademarks. © 2015 Bentley Motors Limited. *Fuel consumption figures subject to Type Approval and EPA Approval. Model shown: Flying Spur V8. Spring 2017 Issue

Flying Spur V8 fuel consumption – EU Drive Cycle* in mpg (l/100 km): Urban 18.4 (15.4); Extra Urban 36.7 (7.7); Combined 26.8 (10.6).

CO2 Emissions 246 g/km. EPA Drive Cycle* in USmpg: City driving 15.0; Highway driving 24.0; Combined 18.0. For more information call +44 (0)845 689 1629 from UK, +1 (0)866 369 4450 from USA or +44 (0)117 244 1804 from elsewhere CFI.co | Capital Finance International or visit www.bentleymotors.com. #FlyingSpurV85

Pilot’s Watch Double Chronograph Edition commemoration of the countless hours he spent conquering the “Antoine de Saint Exupéry”. Ref. 3718: Our dreams are the skies in his P-38 Lightning, a reminiscence of aviation at its truest navigators that pilot us through life’s deeps and shallows. But on- and most original, which the professional pilot and writer cham- ly few of us have the courage to pursue them. Antoine de pioned throughout his life. It was only here that he found the in- Saint-Exupéry, on the other hand, possessed a rare gift that al- spiration for his literary oeuvre, whose poetry touched people all lowed him to discover the world without fear of the unknown and over the world and whose timeless elegance is echoed in the de- gave him the strength to make his dreams come true. With this sign of this wristwatch. Available in a limited edition of 1000, it masterpiece of the watchmaker’s art, IWC expresses its pro- celebrates the passion and lust for adventure that is intrinsic to found admiration for a man who enchanted the world with his un- every dream. And reminds us every second to boldly live out our fettered imagination. The watch’s split-second chronograph is a dreams. IWC. ENGINEERED FOR MEN.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION: #B_ORIGINAL

For more information please call +41 52 635 63 63 or contact [email protected]

2009905_XC6A_420x281_d_crp_ZS_4c_en.indd Alle Seiten 14.10.16 14:27 ENGINEERED FOR MEN WHO LIVE THE DREAMS THAT OTHERS CHASE.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION: #B_ORIGINAL

For more information please call +41 52 635 63 63 or contact [email protected]

2009905_XC6A_420x281_d_crp_ZS_4c_en.indd Alle Seiten 14.10.16 14:27 Editor’s Column nonconformist thought – is dismissed as offensive nonconformist thought –isdismissedasoffensive for ahiddenmeaning andcriticalquestions–or netherworld inwhicheveryassertion isexamined conditioned tooperateinatwistedand convoluted well. A whole generation of professionals is being sense ofliberalism,nowinvogue,does notbode possibly undermine–thestatusquo, their ethereal Whilst studentsaresupposedtoquestion –and newspeak asthelinguafranca? at it, why not establish a Ministry of Truth and adopt and purgedfrompotentiallyoffensiveevents.While History, itseems,needstobesubjected torevisions the demandsaretobeimplementedretroactively. for perceivedpasttransgressions.Inotherwords, academia, speech codes, and public apologies as mandatorydiversitysensitivitytrainingfor of demandsthatincludesuchesotericphenomena 75 USuniversitiesstudentshavepresentedlonglists of thevicestheybattleinoutsideworld.Atsome meanwhile, havecreated“safezones”thatarefree cases, havetheircareersruined.Thestudents, illiberalism aremarginalised,shunned,and,insome Academics whodarequestionthestudents’growing her doingthehonours. Rutgers Universityaftersomestudentsobjectedto Condoleezza Ricereceivedadisinvitationfrom Smith CollegewhilstformerSecretaryofState from deliveringacommencementspeechat the InternationalMonetaryFundwasbarred Thus, ManagingDirectorChristineLagardeof with –pardonthepunextremesensitivities. The damninglabelsaremostlyappliedbythose students donotwishtohear“extremespeakers”. be banned from campus. More 40% of first year that speechdeemedracistand/orsexistshould of the2015freshmenagreeswithstatement Institute oftheUniversityCalifornia,fully70% According totheHigherEducationResearch notion thatgoesagainstthegrain. thought deemeddeviant,andrefusetoentertainany sort: mosteschewfreespeech,clampdownon today’s self-describedliberalsarenothingofthe bearded rebelsofyesteryeartoshame.However, progressive valuestoadegreethatwouldputthe In theUSandEurope,studentshaveembraced Illiberalism Editor’s Column 8 Editor, CFI.co Wim Romeijn only thingwhichremains“verboten”. all-inclusive liberaldemocracy, thatisaboutthe your might: justdon’tsilence your opponents.In an kinder world,denouncebigotry, and fightitwithall with allitsills.Bymeans,striveforabetterand its studentstoprepareforsurvivalintherealworld disrespect. Rather, theUniversityofChicagoexpects much-needed: thisisnot at all about exclusionor The bluntmessagefromChicagoisrefreshing–and rests onyourshoulder. other words:growupanddealwithwhateverchip may challengeyouandevencausediscomfort”.In and engagein,rigorousdebatethatmay“attimes fact, notavailable.Studentsareadvisedtoexpect, warnings and safe spaces arenotsupported and, in letter thatmakesitabundantlycleartrigger pushing backandwelcomingitsfreshmenwitha The UniversityofChicagoisnow, thankfully, Europe andtheInternet. student frompossiblyoffensivetexts,havespreadto American inventionthataimstoprotectthesensitive express the“wrong”opinion.Trigger warnings,an organised toshutoutanduptweeterswho freedom. Online,“twitchhunts”arenowregularly massacres. Safety, apparently, comesbefore the righttobeoffensive–inorderavoidfuture advocating for limits on free speech – including cartoonists inParis,commentatorswerealready that onlymonthsafterthemurderofCharlieHebdo in theWest, BritishjournalistMickHumenoted In hisrecentexposéontheassaultfreespeech students toquestiontheirholier-than-thou mores. guardians ofpoliticalcorrectnessandencouraged University hasralliedmorethanonceagainstthe In theUK,classicistMaryBeardofCambridge opinions –howeverloathsometheyhappentobe. for heropponent’s righttofreelyexpresshis political correctnessthatshewouldfighttirelessly again assuredcolleaguessufferingasevereboutof with Mr Wildersonvirtuallyeverytopic,timeand chief GeertWilders.MsHalsema,whodisagrees they triedtosilencethecountry’s xenophobe-in- verbal lashingtofellowparliamentarianswhenever who repeatedlystoodupinparliamenttoapplya leader FemkeHalsema,nowsadlylosttopolitics, is beyondreproach:formerDutchGreenParty Take hintfromsomeonewhosepoliticalcorrectness liberalism standsfor. pre-approved opinion. Of course, this is not what we mean,butmerelytransmitready-packedand the applicationofeuphemisms:let’s notsaywhat debate isbeingreplacedwithpussyfootingand and answeredwithhostility. Freeandfrank CFI.co |Capital FinanceInternational Boston, Massachusetts:HarvardBusinessSchool Editor’s Column > Letters to the Editor

Your magazine’s assertion (‘Europe: None of the Above”) that the British are about to discover the true cost of extra-union existence fails to address the emotional dimension of Brexit. The June 23 vote was not so much about the EU as it was about the existentialist angst suffered by those who can no longer culturally identify with their surroundings. Put another way: immigration to an already densely-populated nation is deemed undesirable and voters want it stopped – or at least strictly controlled. As such, Brexit is not about economics or high finance. The remain campaign did not realise this simple fact and lost the vote by putting forth a narrative based on reason and logic. Those otherwise laudable faculties, however, do not come into play. GEOFFREY CARLYLE (Hull, UK)

A nation that cannot ensure peace within its borders (“Can Nigeria Maintain Its Dominance as a West African Investment Hub?”) will find it hard to enticed moneyed foreigners “to invest. Nigeria may be the largest economy in Africa, its GDP is on par with that of Thailand and smaller than those of Belgium, Poland, and Sweden – countries that all manage to maintain a degree of stability and, arguably in the case of Thailand, the rule of law – essential to any investor about to park some millions in a new jurisdiction. Nigeria, with its large young population, may hold great promise; so did Brazil and Argentina – and we all know where that went. Africa’s largest nation would be well- advised to put its house in order before counting on foreign direct investment as the driver of its economy. PIETER HOOYDONK (Pretoria, South Africa)

I particularly enjoyed your profile of Wolfgang Schäuble (“Calling Liberalism to Order”), Germany’s much- maligned finance minister. Rooted in pragmatism, Mr Schäuble’s “thinking goes against the grain of the boundless optimism which guides economic policy in Anglophone nations such as the United States and Great Britain. By sticking to notions often described as “simplistic”, Mr Schäuble refuses to engage in voodoo economics or other fads. Uniquely, the man seriously argues that only hard work and relentless penny-pinching may lead to sustained prosperity. He has a point and Germany offers the living proof that backs it up. Elsewhere, alas, the unending search for shortcuts continues. FRANZ STOCKMANN (Linz, Austria)

Please do not dismiss, out of hand, the progress made in Latin America (“Waiting to Seize Its Moment”) over the past decade or so. Whilst Argentina, Brazil, and Venezuela fare less well than most, countries such as Chile, Peru, Colombia, and “Mexico have moved ahead quietly. With a new administration in place, Argentina is catching up as well. Though it is a mammoth task to unwind eons of administrative neglect and abuse, progress is being made. Most nations of Latin America are steadily moving up on the World Bank’s ease-of-doing- business index which should – in the fullness of time – attract more investors and build more competitive businesses. Even Brazil, now in the midst of a sharp downturn, offers hope as the country’s judiciary battles to institute the rule of law and tackles corruption. There is hope yet. OSVALDO d’ALBUQUERQUE (Campinas, Brazil)

“10 Spring 2017 Issue

I take issue with smart government (“The Smart in Smart Government”). Enough already of app-based initiatives and presidents who tweet their every thought into cyberspace. Can we please return to the era of boring public administrators who just do their 9-to-5 job without broadcasting their accomplishment to all and sundry? We do not need new- fangled technologies to collect the trash, run the waterworks, or provide proper healthcare to those who need it. I may be a sentimentalist afflicted by nostalgia, but I also remember a time when civil servants were serving the public with civility and diligence. They didn’t need apps or decision-making flowcharts to do the right thing. SIMON BERGREEN (Perth, Australia)

I, for one, am going to miss Fidel Castro (“An Antagonist Remembered”). In fact, I already do. Here was a man not easily swayed by the flavour of the day or intimidated by forces greater than his tiny island could muster. Whilst we “may not have agreed with his ideology, or his repression of dissent, Fidel Castro was a known quantity: we all knew what he stood for. Most modern-day politicians espouse whatever opinion is popular at the moment and seem not to hold any of their own. As such, voters have no clue what these politicians will do once they get elected to office. Of course, Fidel Castro did not believe in free elections. A pity, for I’d wager that he would have triumphed. CATHERINE PARKER (Jacksonville, US)

The annual conclave of the world’s elite in Davos is a sight to behold (“Connecting with Reality”). These people flutter to and fro in private jets, mega yachts, and limousines whilst preaching environmental probity. Of course, there are “exceptions, but most of the Davos crowd cannot be trusted to make the world a better place. These people are in it for the money of which they never seem to have enough. Once a few tens of millions have been scooped up, a few crumbs are dropped into good causes. I pity the World Economic Forum’s founder – a noble man on a likewise noble mission. We need people such as Prof Klaus Schwab who seriously wishes to make a difference. What we don’t need are all these hangers- on. ARTHUR HALLE (Perpignan, France)

Whilst it is true that for every current account surplus there must be a deficit somewhere else (“Global Imbalances on the Rise”), it does take two to tango. Amongst mature and “fully-developed economies, current accounts surpluses and deficits should, at least in theory, be fairly balanced. After all, current account deficits are usually associated with economies that undergo rapid progress and need to attract extra money to invest in both economic and social infrastructure. To blame the Germans and the Dutch for maintaining huge c/a surpluses is to miss the point: their economies merely fill the void left by other less dynamic nations. There is absolutely no reason why the United States, Great Britain, Australia, and even resource- rich Canada should suffer a c/a deficit other than that these countries have failed rather miserably to up productivity and increase competitiveness. London “HANK THURBER (Leeds, UK) 11 Summer 2016 Issue

Editor Wim Romeijn >

Assistant Editor Sarah Worthington COVER STORIES

Executive Editor George Kingsley Otaviano Canuto, World Bank: Contributing Editor Darren Parkin Global Growth Reversal (14 – 18)

Production Editor Corporate Governance Forum: Organized by IFC and the UMFCCI in Yangon, Myanmar in February. Chris Razook is pictured second from the left. Jackie Chapman loans, manage concentrated exposures, and reforms in Myanmar will bring opportunities to With such big challenges ahead, IFC and the ensure sound credit and collateral procedures many SMEs, including expansion possibilities World Bank Group, with support from the UK are being used. requiring capital to fuel their growth. Thus, and Australian governments, are committed Editorial efforts should be made to help SMEs adopt basic to working with various market actors in Similarly, while Myanmar’s new stock market is a standards of governance, whichSummer 2016 will Issue facilitateNASDAQ: Myanmar to continue strengthening corporate Tony Lennox landmark development that will tap new sources their access to finance and improve their chances governance practices and help it build a Kate Stanton of capital to help fuel the expansion of the of survival in the long run. ESGvibrant Reporting and sustainable private sector. i country’s private sector, there is a similar public Steve Dyson trust element that needs to be safeguarded with Fortunately, Myanmar can learn a lot from its( 20ABOUT - 21 THE) AUTHOR Hal Williams sound governance and transparency. Based ASEAN neighbours who have made significant Chris Razook is IFC’s corporate governance on IFC and the World Bank Group’s experience progress on harmonising corporate governance lead for the East Asia Pacific Region. Emelia Beeson in working with capital market authorities in practices in preparation for the launch of the Mr Razook has more than fifteen years John Marinus emerging markets globally, creating efficient yet ASEAN Economic Community last year. One of experience in the area of corporate Ellen Langford prudent governance rules for listed companies notable example is the ASEAN Corporate governance and supports IFC investments is a continuous process. In Asia alone, there Governance Scorecard Initiative – first introduced by working with companies to strengthen Naomi Majid are ongoing or planned efforts to update with support from the Asian Development Bank their governance frameworks. He has also listed company rules in China, Indonesia, the and now also backed by IFC – which providesCover supported Story: central banks, capital market Philippines, and Vietnam, amongst others. benchmarks for individual companies to rate authorities, and other regulatory bodies in Myanmar should glean much learning from and improve specific governance practices.Donald drafting corporate Trump governance - laws, codes, Columnists these efforts. In addition, Myanmar can leverage a strong and listing rules to help develop stronger network of governance practitioners, includingThe investment Art ofclimates. the Mr Compromise Razook has an Otaviano Canuto Governance will also play a crucial role in the representatives from ASEAN capital market undergraduate degree in Engineering, an Evan Harvey corporatisation of Myanmar’s state-owned authorities and institutes of directors, to its( 32MBA – 43in International) Finance, and an LLM Tor Svensson entities. State ownership remains high in the advantage as the country continues to reform. in Corporate Law. country,Corporate Governance particularly Forum: Organized by in IFC andthe the UMFCCI infrastructure in Yangon, Myanmar in February. sector; Chris Razook is pictured second from the left.

withoutloans, managecommercially concentrated exposures,oriented and reformsreforms in includingMyanmar will bring opportunities to With such big challenges ahead, IFC and the corporateensure sound governance, credit and collateral thisprocedures can manyhinder SMEs, includingoverall expansion possibilities World Bank Group, with support from the UK are being used. requiring capital to fuel their growth. Thus, and Australian governments, are committed market efficiency and drag economicefforts should growth. be made to help SMEs adopt basic to working with various market actors in Similarly, while Myanmar’s new stock market is a standards of governance, which will facilitate Myanmar to continue strengthening corporate Distribution Manager landmark development that will tap new sources their access to finance and improve their chances governance practices and help it build a WBG: SMEsof capital to help fuel the expansion of the of survival in the long run. vibrant and sustainable private sector. i Len Collingwood country’s private sector, there is a similar public At trustthe element other that needsend to beof safeguarded the spectrum, with Fortunately, small Myanmar and can learn a lot from its ABOUT THE AUTHOR SWFs Going Green sound governance and transparency. Based ASEAN neighbours who have made significant Chris Razook is IFC’s corporate governance medium-sizedon IFC and the World Bankenterprises Group’s experience (SMEs) progress on areharmonising the corporate governance lead for the East Asia Pacific Region. in working with capital market authorities in practices in preparation for the launch of the Mr Razook has more than fifteen years Subscriptions backboneemerging markets of the globally, Myanmar creating efficient economy yet ASEAN and Economic comprise Community last year. One of experience in the area of corporate (82 - 83) prudent governance rules for listed companies notable example is the ASEAN Corporate governance and supports IFC investments moreis a thancontinuous 95% process. of In allAsia firms.alone, there Continued Governance Scorecard market Initiative – first introduced by working with companies to strengthen Maggie Arts are ongoing or planned efforts to update with support from the Asian Development Bank their governance frameworks. He has also listed company rules in China, Indonesia, the and now also backed by IFC – which provides supported central banks, capital market Philippines, and Vietnam, amongst others. benchmarks for individual companies to rateCFI.co authorities, | Capital and other Finance regulatory International bodies in 137 Myanmar should glean much learning from and improve specific governance practices. drafting corporate governance laws, codes, these efforts. In addition, Myanmar can leverage a strong and listing rules to help develop stronger Commercial Director network of governance practitioners, including investment climates. Mr Razook has an Governance will also play a crucial role in the representatives from ASEAN capital market undergraduate degree in Engineering, an William Adam corporatisation of Myanmar’s state-owned authorities and institutes of directors, to its MBA in International Finance, and an LLM entities. State ownership remains high in the advantage as the country continues to reform. in Corporate Law. country, particularly in the infrastructure sector; without commercially oriented reforms including corporate governance, this can hinder overall IFC: Director, Operations market efficiency and drag economic growth. SMEs Marten Mark At the other end of the spectrum, small and Energy Storage & Emerging Markets medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are the backbone of the Myanmar economy and comprise more than 95% of all firms. Continued market (143) Publisher CFI.co | Capital Finance International 137 Mark Harrison

Capital Finance International Meridien House E&Y Argentina: 69 - 71 Clarendon Road Watford Measures to Improve Employment Hertfordshire WD17 1DS (190 – 191) United Kingdom

T: +44 203 137 3679 F: +44 203 137 5872 E: [email protected] W: www.cfi.co EIB: Europe’s Investment

Printed in the UK by Offensive is Working The Magazine Printing Company using only paper from FSC/PEFC suppliers (216 – 217) www.magprint.co.uk

12 CFI.co | Capital Finance International Spring 2017 Issue

FULL CONTENTS

14 – 43 As World Economies Converge Otaviano Canuto Evan Harvey Nouriel Roubini Robert J Shiller Alissa Amico Yanis Varoufakis Tor Svensson

44 – 51 Spring 2017 Special: Barbarians at the Gate?

52 – 83 Europe Clydesdale and Yorkshire Bank Arca Fondi SGR Cooperative Central Bank TKP Investments Xpress Money Eurohold Novus Group International Moneymailme NAWATechnologies AmsterdamGold Group Pyramidal Technologies World Bank

84 – 111 CFI.co Awards Rewarding Global Excellence

112 – 143 Africa InvestSA Catoca NJMPF Tracom Services Khartoum Stock Exchange Tandem & Stark Barclays Africa KeaObaka Mahuma African Risk Capacity (ARC) Hal Williams IFC Simon Bloom

144 – 159 Middle East QNB ALAHLI Kuwait International Bank Afghanistan International Bank Bakhtar Bank Bank ABC Jordan

160 – 167 Editor’s Heroes Men and Women Who are Making a Real Difference

168 – 191 Latin America Maran Group Grupo Elektra Panamerican Securities Produbanco Fondo de Fondos Molino Cañuelas Evertec Ernst & Young

192 – 199 North America

200 – 217 Asia Pacific New World Development Co BSC Sakar Healthcare MAPCO SpiceJet EIB Swarna Pragati Housing Microfinance Private Lim

218 Final Thought

CFI.co | Capital Finance International 13 CFI.co Columnist > C Bloated CentralBankBalanceSheets World Bank: as a way to self-insure. This balance sheet as awaytoself-insure. Thisbalancesheet instead oflending ininterbankmarkets–also solvency, bankswerehoarding thosereserves of theelevateduncertaintyoncounterparties’ settlement offinancialtransactions. Because expanded bysupplyingreservestoassure smooth left side). First, central banks’ balance sheets expansion oftheirbalancesheets (chart1– monetary policiesledtoanextraordinary interest ratepolicies,suchuseofunconventional and, morerecentlyintheEurozone,negative programmes, lines of long-term loans to banks Together withforward guidance,debtswap interest-rate cuts. on to becomingatool to boost the efficacy of systems throughQE,withthelatterevolvinglater broad liquidityprovisiontodomesticbanking elevated. To that aim, crisis-hit economies saw uncertainty regarding counterparty risks remained including financialstabilityasagoal,while Central bankpoliciesseemedtoshifttowards liabilities side(quantitativeeasing–QE). a simultaneouscreationofbankreservesontheir securities and/or private assets from markets with programmes ofmassivepurchasesgovernment moments andintensities–implemented and BankofJapan(BoJ)haveall–indifferent Central Bank(ECB),ofEngland(BoE), the USFederalReserveBank(Fed),European deflation risksasprivateagentsdeleveraged, subsequently tofighteconomicstagnationand illiquid privatesectorbalancesheets,and destabilisation andbankruptcyofsolvent-but- Initially toavoidadeepeningofthefinancial increasingly resorting to unconventional tools. their rangeofmonetarypolicyinstruments, in majoradvancedeconomieshavewidened international economyin2008,central banks Since theglobalfinancialcrisishit (I): UNCONVENTIONALMONETARY POLICIES to leadthembackwheretheywere. unwinding of central bank portfolios is notlikely opacity. Those challenges will remain as the acquired higherlevelsofcomplexity, risk,and bank andpublicsectorbalancesheetshave illustrate howtherelationshipsbetweencentral using Brazil and the US as examples, we also substantively differentimplications.Furthermore, receiving impactsoftheformer’s policies,carries global reserveissuersandtheotherbybystanders However, thefactthatonegroupiscomprisedby possibly facingatransitiontolessabnormaltimes. 14 balance sheets and are all now balance sheetsandareallnow of extraordinaryexpansiontheir have recently gone through a period many emergingmarketeconomies entral banksoflargeadvancedand unwinding of which would have been even more unwinding of which would have been even more in therun-uptoglobalfinancial crisis,the domestic andinternationalprivateportfolios built was tosomeextentaflipsideofthe over-size of size acquiredbycentralbankbalance sheets that adoptedthoseunconventional policies. The household, andcorporatedeleverage incountries economic recovery, including byhelpingbanking, weaker currencies(euro,yen)contributedtoan lower debt service, positive wealth effects, and deflation andbankruptcy, itstransmissionthrough besides precludingdeepdownwardspiralsofdebt outcomes. However, mostanalystsagreethat, assess theimpactofQEonmacroeconomic There areintrinsicchallengestoisolateand as anadditionalenginewereleftbehind. (US, UK),opportunitiestoresortfiscalpolicy whole orforearlypursuitsoffiscalconsolidation option forfiscalausterityintheEurozoneasa macroeconomic recovery. Eitherbecauseofan an over-reliance onmonetarypolicytosupport bank balance-sheet operations also reflected The sizeandresponsibilitiesacquiredbycentral imposed additionalchallengestoECBpolicies. the bankingsystemandrisksofcountryexits institutional weaknesses,thefragmentationof private portfolios).InthecaseofEurozone, markets, sharesofgovernmentbondsin (weights ofbankintermediationversuscapital differences inshapesoflocalfinancialmarkets central banksmirroringunderlyingstructural (chart 1–rightside)withdifferencesamong bills onlytovarioustypesofbondsandequities The assetcompositionmovedfromgovernment an asset-drivenone. second expansionofcentralbankbalancesheets were financedbycreatingreserves,makingthis portfolio compositions. Those asset purchases to reducelong-terminterestratesandshift from QEperse:policymakersboughtassets liabilities. Thesecondwaveofexpansioncame originated frompoliciesaimingatcentralbanks’ expansion couldbeseenasliability-driven–i.e. make liquidity management financial integrationinthe last decadeshasimposed effective ascross-border expanded significantly.” increasing challengesto volumes ofcapitalflows “The increasingglobal CFI.co |Capital FinanceInternational relations between various benchmark curves – relations between variousbenchmarkcurves– under thepurviewofcentralbanks: monitoring for arbitragetrades.Thus,anew taskcame are notincentivisedtouseshort-term balances increasing role as funding providers, as banks Finally, centralbanks mayneedtoacceptan liquidity services. banks the onlyremaining playerableto provide from institutionalinvestorsandmadecentral banks fromreceivingshort-termcashbalances at centralbanks.Theseruleshavediscouraged which couldbemetbysimplyholdingreserves a minimumamountofhighqualityliquidassets, and strategies. Basel III requires banks to carry induced privateagentstoaltertheirbehaviour Second, changesinfinancialregulationhave expanded significantly. effective as cross-border volumes of capital flows challenges to make liquidity management in the last decades has imposed increasing First, theincreasingglobalfinancialintegration makers. not justmarketregulators,butalsoquasi-market balance sheetdynamics,andmadecentralbanks and regulatoryfactorshavecontributedtotheir motivation forcentralbankpolicies,structural balance sheets.Together withthepro-recovery will benoreturntothepre-QEconfigurationof There arestrongreasonstobelievethatthere challenges fororderlybalancesheetadjustments. of economicrecoverywillplaceadditional rebalancing. Lackofsynchronisationinpaces first moverhavealreadyinducedcapitalflows is stillneeded.However, spill-oversfromthe deleveraging –orpublicdebtrestructuring later downtheroad,asfurtherprivatesector Other majorcentralbanksmaystartexitingonly balance sheet. expressed theirwillingnesstoshrinktheFed’s of regionalFederalReserveBankshavealready close tofullemployment.Infact,twopresidents hiking interestrates,astheUSeconomycame of globalliquidity, theFed,isalreadygradually central bank portfolios. Indeed, the main provider will shifttoexitstrategiesandunwindingof observer mightbeaskingwhenthepolicyagenda monetary policiescametounfold,acasual After almostadecadesinceunconventional in theEurozone. time horizonofunconventionalmonetarypolicies relative feeblenessofrecoveryandtheextended consolidation ofportfolios–helpsexplainthe unwinding –includingdebtrestructuringand disorderly otherwise.Theincompletenessofsuch By OtavianoCanutoandMatheusCavallari CFI.co Columnist 15 Spring 2017 Issue Spring (II): SPILL-OVERS FROM ABROAD (II): SPILL-OVERS normalising markets started As financial moments,the wake of acute crisis globally in generated a monetary policies unconventional liquidity by shifting abundant collateral effect advanced economiesto other countries – small economies (EMEs)and emerging market at that point. Untilmostly casual bystanders affectto started tantrum taper 2013, the first announcement EMEs following the Fed’s QE, liquidity excessesof a forthcoming end of massive capital flows toeventually turned into those countries. led to a piling upCapital inflows had already in recipients –of foreign currency reserves currenthigh by accompanied when particularly to the global financialaccount surpluses – prior crisis. After a slowdown in the immediate aftermath of the crisis, those flows and the corresponding reserve accumulation returned with strength for some time, until slowing down again more recently (chart 2). The intensive wave of capital flows to EMEs in between the crisis eruption and the taper monetaryunconventional reflected tantrum policies in large advanced economies, combined with enthusiasm about what then seemed to be It is a steady growth decoupling of the former. worth noticing the higher weight of short-term flows and bond purchases in the QE-influenced wave comparative to previous periods. While capital inflows and reserve accumulation had already been leading to challenges faced by monetary policymakers in EMEs, these were exacerbated by the features of the QE-originated wave. Even an EME not manipulating exchange rates – i.e. pursuing strategies of curbing domestic demand and deliberate exchange rate undervaluation – would not be expected to take a hands-off approach to exchange rate pressures and allow the liquidity wave from abroad to be fully absorbed via local currency appreciation. Therefore, accumulation of reserves with corresponding central bank balance sheet accommodation became the norm. Holding up against local currency appreciation while sterilizing monetary impacts of reserve accumulation meant expanding balance sheets increaseof recipient EMEs – an asset-driven of the central bank balance sheet. That was a major factor behind several EMEs’ central bank assets reaching proportions of GDP comparable to those of economies adopting unconventional monetary policies (chart 3). POLICY FRAMEWORKS DIFFERENCES IN MONETARY From the standpoint of the component of reserve balances in central bank balance sheets, unconventional policies in advanced economies shifted their banking systems from a structural deficit of reserve balances to a structural surplus. EMEs in turn, by then already with a long history of surplus reserve (shown immediately below) (shown immediately below) CFI.co | Capital Finance International be as bloated as the one during recent abnormal times, but will not return to the pre-crisis size and profile. Source: Credit Suisse, The future of monetary policy, January 2017. Chart 1: Advanced Economies - Central Bank Balance Sheets. i.e. operating as quasi-market makers. One may ofconfiguration normal new the that expect central bank balance sheets will not necessarily Broad asset mix on central bank balance sheets. (end-Sept. 2016). Last data point: Fed (4/1/17); ECB (end-2016); BoJ Evolution of Central Bank Balance Sheets – local currency, Jan 2007 = 100. Jan 2007 = 100. – local currency, Bank Balance Sheets Evolution of Central CFI.co Columnist Chart 3:CentralBankTotal Assets toGDPRatio. Chart 2:SelectedEconomies-GrossInternationalReserves2005Q12016(US$billions). 16 St. Vincent and the Grenadines the and Vincent St. Bosnia and Herzegovina and Bosnia China, P.R.: Mainland P.R.: China, United Arab Emirates Arab United Trinidad andTrinidad Tobago Dominican Republic Serbia, Republic ofSerbia, Republic Russian Federation St. Kitts and Nevis and Kitts St. Equatorial Guinea United States United Saudi Arabia Saudi South Africa South Kazakhstan Costa Rica Costa Seychelles Argentina Botswana Dominica Mauritius Colombia t u ia Luc St. Paraguay Romania Australia Maldives Thailand Malaysia Namibia Grenada Uruguay Ecuador Jamaica Panama lania Alba Belarus Georgia Iceland Canada Norway Mexico Kuwait l eria Alg n ola Ang Belize Oman Japan Brazil Israel Qatar Chile Fiji 0 Source: International Financial Statistics, IMF. IMF. Statistics, Financial International Source: 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 CFI.co |Capital FinanceInternational 0.5 0.6 Source: IMF, External Sector Report 2016. 2016. Report Sector External IMF, Source: 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 banks inthegroup (seealsochart3). GDP, substantiallytallerthanall othercentral to asizeequivalent toalmost50%ofBrazil’s why thebloatingof BCB’s balancesheettookit (chart 4b).Italsoispartoftheexplanation of assets asafeatureuniquetoBrazil inthisgroup foreign assetsandgovernmentbonds inBCB’s sterilisation. Thatexplainsthetall sizes ofboth ramp upofforeignassetaccumulation andits considerably inordertomake feasible the asset sidebythecentralbankhadtoaugment tool. Relatedly, governmentbondsheldonthe on governmentbondswasthepredominant Brazil istheonlycasewherereversereposbased 4a). legally authorizedtoissueownbonds(chart bonds (notablyBoK).FedandBCBarenot and ECB)issuanceofcentralbankown remunerated voluntaryreserves(mainlyFed assets wasmainlydonewithretentionof private assets, government bonds, and foreign The sterilisationofcentralbankpurchases Korea (BoK)andremarksthat: Brazil (BCB),Fed,ECB,Mexico(Banxico),and tools. Ferreira(2016)comparesthecasesof Central banks vary widely in theuse of those operations withtheprivatesector. held intheirportfoliotomakereverserepo securities; and (iii) using government securities the lattercase;(ii)issuingcentralbankown fine-tuning thecorrespondingremunerationin additional required or voluntary free reserves, on theliabilitiesside:(i)retainingthemas effect asadditionstocommercialbankreserves central banksintendstooutweightheirinitial government orprivatesecurities–whenthe impacts ofassetpurchases–foreignassetsand There arethreebasicmeanstosterilizemonetary by QE. banks –hadasset-drivensurplusesintensified sometimes, provision of assistance to unhealthy interventions, governmentfinancingand, balances –usuallycaused by exchangerate CFI.co Columnist 17 Spring 2017 Issue Spring IT’S COMPLICATED! which through multiple channels are There sheets and central bank balance monetary policy accounts andfiscal government interact with balance Bloated central bank balance sheet. and the magnified the weight sheets have relations, one in whichcomplexity of that web of features matter. country-specific institutional offer some examples. Let’s instance the unique Brazilian over- for Take repos for monetaryreliance on reverse in the previous item. Assterilisation approached on reverse repos toobserved, BCB relies mainly reservecurrent being surpluses, liquidity drain considered already high. So, therequirements – with repurchasemonetary authority sells bonds from its balanceagreement – government supplies those bonds ifsheet, and the treasury needed to avoid losing control of the policy rate. That tool has an accounting implication beyond Brazil’s that implies It realm. monetary policy the general government gross debt as measured and(IMF) Fund Monetary International the by most other analysts is higher than what would be the case if there was no single reliance on reverse repos and therefore less need to hold so huge volumes of government securities in BCB’s balance sheet. The standard method to account for gross public debt is to consider all public debt in the central bank balance sheet, including even the extra buffer held to minimise the risk of losing Itrate. policy monetary the set to capacity the public gross the of part this that say to fair is debt corresponding to assets held by BCB and not by markets should not be treated as a result debt fiscal and public or a component of Brazil’s dynamics. Cross-country comparisons of public debt should take that into account. president, has recently Ilan Goldfajn, BCB’s declared that remunerated voluntary deposits thetoolkit in policy monetary the to added be will near future, offering a remuneration equivalent to reverse repos. The stock of the latter has reached levels above 16% of GDP of last year and over remuneratedwith replaced partially be shall time voluntary reserves, with relevant fiscal accounting practice of implications. By following the Fed’s paying interest on banking reserves, the central portfolio of government bonds could be bank’s the gross public debt, reduced. Consequently, would be by the IMF, example, as compiled, for lower. andfiscal between channel Another connecting monetary policy realms is made by occasional profits and losses incurred by central banks in their operations. That is a channel that has now, become much more significant than in obviously, the past. Operation Twist An example comes from Fed’s inprogramme swap debt a 2012, and 2011 in bonds which the Fed bought long-term Treasury bonds in the market and sold short-term Treasury 2015 2015 ECB ECB 2014 2014 2013 2013 Source: Ferreira, C. L. K. Source: Ferreira, C. L. K. tral – Em Homenagem a tral – Em Homenagem a 2012 (shown immediately below) 2012 CFI.co | Capital Finance International (shown immediately below) 2011 2011 2010 2010 entral”, in Bacha, E. (ed.), O a e a relação Tesouro‐Banco C entral”, in Bacha, E. (ed.), O a e a relação Tesouro‐Banco C 2009 2009 2008 2008 2007 2007 Selected Countries: Central Bank Assets 2015 (% of GDP) 0 Selected Countries: Central Bank Liabilities 2015 (% of GDP) 0 20 80 60 40 200 100 300 -200 -100 140 120 100 Others Gold Loans & credit Repos Foreign Assets Foreign Treasuries Banknotes Others Bank reserves bonds CB Reverse repos Reverse Treasury account Treasury Moeda: Ensaios sobre o Tesouro Nacional e o Banco Central – Em Homenagem a Fabio Barbosa, Civilizaçao Brasileira. Moeda: Ensaios sobre o Tesouro Nacional e o Banco Central – Em Homenagem a Fabio Barbosa, Civilizaçao Brasileira. Chart 4b: Selected Countries - Central Bank Assets 2015 (% of GDP). Source: Ferreira, C. L. K. (2016), “A dinâmica da dívida bruta e a relação Tesouro-Banco Central”, in Bacha, E. (ed.), O Fisco e a Selected Countries - Central Bank Liabilities 2015 (% of GDP).Chart 4a: Selected Countries - Central Bank Source: Ferreira, C. L. K. (2016), “A dinâmica da dívida bruta e a relação Tesouro-Banco Central”, in Bacha, E. (ed.), O Fisco e a Central Bank of Brazil Remittances to the Treasury (BRL billion). Central Bank of Brazil Remittances to the Treasury U.S. and Brazilian Central Bank Remittances to the Treasury. Chart 5: U.S. and Brazilian Central Bank Remittances to the Treasury. Source: Federal Reserve (2015 remittances include $19.3 billion transferred as capital surplus) and Central Bank of Brazil. Federal Reserve Remittances to the Treasury (USD billion). (USD Federal Reserve Remittances to the Treasury Chart 4b: (2016), “A dinâmica da dívida brut Fisco e a Moeda: Ensaios sobre o Tesouro Nacional e o Banco Cen Fabio Barbosa, Civilizaçao Brasileira. Chart 4a: (2016), “A dinâmica da dívida brut Fisco e a Moeda: Ensaios sobre o Tesouro Nacional e o Banco Cen Fabio Barbosa, Civilizaçao Brasileira. CFI.co Columnist associated to central bank operational income associated to central bank operational income in theeraofbloated centralbankbalancesheets and opacity – acquired by fiscal-monetary links Another exampleofthiscomplexity –andrisks distortions incross-countrycomparisons. liquidity excesses,suchasinBrazil, creating authority had keptusing reverse repos to drain would behigherthaninthecase monetary as acollateral.Therefore,thegrosspublicdebt impact –anddoesnotrequiregovernmentbonds affects centralbank’s profit–thereisabudgetary the market.However, payinginterestonreserves make theFedrunoutofTreasury bondstosellin Hypothetically, a situation could arise that might monetary policyfromtheQEcollateraleffects. It wasintroducedtoavoidlosingcontrolof seen inthepreviousitem–isnotanoldpractice. and resorttothelatterasasterilisationtool– The Fed’s capacity to pay interest on reserves steepens. short-term interest rates rise and theyieldcurve However, thispicturecanrevertdramaticallyas to theUSTreasury in2016(chart5–leftside). to up$97.7billionin2015,beingtransferred has beenprofitablefortheFed.Profitsamounted pays interestonthesereserves.Thiscarrytrade drying upthesurplusofreserves,Fedalso on the long-term bonds. By buying ABS and interest ratesand the positive yield-to-maturity difference betweennegativeshort-termreal Moreover, theFedhasprofitedfrom accounted aspartofUSgrosspublicdebt. balance sheet, Operation Twist is directly Despite implicit potential losses in the Fed’s backed securities(ABS). government securitiesandcloseto40%ofasset the Fed’s balancesheethadupto55%of to a20%lossontheirvalue.InJanuary2017, of the30-yearTreasury bondwouldimposeup an increaseof100basispointsininterestrates holds theselong-termbondsinitsassets,where amounted tohundredsofbilliondollars.TheFed to flatlong-terminterestrates.Thetransaction 18 to reality, whichinothereconomictheoryis “Monetary theory is less abstract than most “Monetary theoryislessabstractthanmost history, inawaythateconomictheorydoes economic theory; it cannot avoid a relation economic theory;itcannotavoidarelation sometimes missing. It belongs to monetary sometimes missing.Itbelongstomonetary not alwaysbelongtoeconomichistory.” “Monetary theory is less abstract than most most than abstract less is theory “Monetary economic theory; it cannot avoid a relation relation a avoid cannot it theory; economic to reality, which in other economic theory is is theory economic other in which reality, to in his Monetary Theory and History (1967): in hisMonetaryTheoryandHistory (1967): to eachepochinhistory. Inthatcontext,hewrote monetary systemsandinstitutionsare particular Nobel PrizelaureateSirJohnRHicks arguedthat FINAL REMARKS the fiscalbalance. latter arenon-realised, the former is accounted in notional valuesofswaps.Nonetheless,whilethe simultaneous paymentofpremiumon(smaller) the BCBstockofforeignassets,whilethereisa depreciations implylocalcurrencygainswith foreign reserves:e.g.,actualexchangerate are in opposite direction to the ones from actual depreciation pressures.Bydesign,swapresults taper tantruminordertosmoothlocalcurrency adopted by BCB duringand after the2013 foreign currency swaps, which were intensively associated withtheaccountingofresultsfrom By thesametoken,therearechallenges Account (liabilities)andTreasuries (assets). raised balancesonboththeTreasury Single to theBCB’s balancesheet.Overtime,thishas with governmenttransfersofnewpublicbonds Single Account,losseshavebeencompensated While gainshavebeendepositedintheTreasury accounted apartfromotherbalancesheetitems. results fromexchangeratevariations–whichare treatment ofgainsandlossesfromnon-realised (2016), toalargeextentthisstemsfromthe According to Mendes (2016) andFerreira how high the balance in that account has grown. of theBCB’s balancesheet.Chart4aexhibits the Treasury SingleAccountontheliabilitiesside mandated tobetransferredeverysixmonths In Brazil,centralbank’s incomeislegally gains andlossesinlocalcurrency. often lead to significant central bank non-realized like someotherEMEs,exchangerateoscillations the magnitudeofforeignassetsheldbyBCB, comes fromBrazil(chart5–rightside).Given CFI.co |Capital FinanceInternational sometimes missing. It belongs to monetary monetary to belongs It missing. sometimes history, in a way that economic theory does not not does theory economic that way a in history, always belong to economic history.” economic to belong always All opinions expressed here are their own and do do and own their are here expressed opinions All adviser totheexecutivedirector. World BankandMatheusCavallariisasenior Otaviano Canutoisanexecutivedirectoratthe ABOUT THEAUTHORS Authors: OtavianoCanutoandMatheusCavallari balance sheets.i coming withthenewnormalofcentralbank challenge offacingnewrisksandcomplexity unwound andreverted,allshareincommonthe this recentevolutiondoesnotseemlikelytobe tools andinstitutionsis.Ontheotherhand,as country-specific thearrayofmonetarypolicy banks. Furthermore,wesawhowvariegatedand of bloatingbalancesheetslivedbycentral distinctive-but-combined typesofexperiences was shownhereinourapproachtothetworecent That historicalspecificityofmoneyandfinance account historic-specificcontexts. universal principles, and is obligedtotakeinto systems cannot rely simply on abstract and and policy choices on monetary and financial has a flipsidewhenitcomestospace.Analyses monetary systemsandinstitutionsovertimealso Such variabilityandevolutionarynatureof not represent those of the World Bank or of those those of or Bank World the of those represent not governments Mr Canuto represents on its board. board. its on represents Canuto Mr governments References in this article available upon request. request. upon available article this in References - SirJohnRHicks Spring 2017 Issue

CFI.co | Capital Finance International 19 CFI.co Columnist > T undertaking thiswork. drivers that companies may realise just by case behindESG reporting,theinternalvalue taken greatpains toelucidatethebusiness sign ofprogress.Indeed,eachinitiative has products themselvesarenottheonly tangible awareness. Butineachofthesecases, thedata (EU), amongstothers–havealso fostered and the Non-Financial Reporting Directive SEC Regulation S-K Concept Release (US), Climate-Related FinancialDisclosures,the Other projects–theFSBTask Forceon distinct datadisclosures. ultimately advocating for 33separateand between market forces and ESGperformance, (2013-2015) researchingtheintersection Federation of Exchanges spenttwoyears The SustainabilityWorking Group attheWorld reporting guidancetotheirlistedcompanies. encouraged 33exchangestopublishESG initiative, launchedin2009,hassuccessfully The UN Sustainable Stock Exchanges discrete initiatives have also been influential. and theriseof“bigdata”analytics.But economic instability, institutionalscrutiny, dynamics, includingtheclimatecrisis, has beendrivenbyanumberofcultural The significantincreaseinESGdatareporting STOCK EXCHANGESSTEPUP innovation. risk management,andproductservice can impactintangiblebrandvalue,enterprise efficiency andperformanceimprovements determined byinvestorvaluation.ESG-related and economicbenefitsbeyondthose management practicescancreateoperational of gatheringthisdataandintegratingitinto ESG Reporting-SixReasonsWhy Evan Harvey, Nasdaq: companies. companies. includes morethan700differentESGdisclosuresfromnearly12,000 now terminal Bloomberg The Initiative. Reporting Global the to according 10,500 than organizations havecreatedalmost40,000 separatesustainabilityreports, More report. to failed 20% only Institute, Accountability and companies reported ESG data in 2011. By 2016, according to the Governance social, and governance data – has come a long way. Only 20% of Fortune 500 The corporatereportingofsustainabilitydata–callitESG, orenvironmental, 20 in the output of data. The very process in theoutputofdata.Theveryprocess ESG reportingdoesnotresideentirely also becomingclearthatthevalueof interesting marketinsights,butitis his informationfloodhasproduced broad impact of ESG creates real impacts upon broad impactofESG createsrealimpactsupon Century. As those and other sources assert, the by UNEPFI titled Fiduciary Duty in the 21st draw yourattentiontoarecentpaper published that reinforcedthissupposition.We wouldalso Performance: Mapping the Global Landscape) published astudy(ESG&Corporate Financial & Wealth Management,forexample,recently valuation overthelongterm.Deutsche Asset of capital,lower stock price volatility, and better practices andotherpositives,suchaslowercost correlation betweencompanieswithgoodESG Academics andinvestorshavebeenabletofind LOOKING BEYONDTHEBALANCESHEET as measurable. can provide,aswedetailbelow, mayalsobejust impact. Butthesubtlevaluesthatsustainability performance signals,thathasarealfinancial company, andownthestocklonger, duetoESG measurable. Ifinvestorsareattractedtoa one, becauseESGinformationisrelevantand The veryterm“non-financial”isamisleading them undoubtedlyhasfinancialconsequences. a companytracks,measures,andmanages performance indicators,thewaysinwhich While ESGfactorsareoftenseenasnon-financial guidance totheirlisted 2009, hassuccessfully initiative, launchedin “The UNSustainable exchanges topublish Stock Exchanges CFI.co |Capital FinanceInternational encouraged 33 ESG reporting companies.” make this case successfully – and often do. make thiscasesuccessfully –andoftendo. customers, andmedia praise.Exchangescan are disproportionately winningcontracts, a diversemultitudeofstakeholder interests, gather andreportESGdata,aswell ashandle Companies with the expertise and resources to 2. GainingCompetitiveAdvantage requests. esoteric andefficientlyprioritise information companies separatethemeaningfulfrom reporting advice from the exchange often helps in thesupply chain and RFPprocess.ESG with requestsforESGinformation,especially the broadestsense;companiesarebesieged and ratingsfirmscovering“sustainability”in There aredozensofreputablereportingagencies 1. OvercomingFramework&QuestionnaireFatigue proven mostpersuasive. drivers, alltiedtobestpracticesinESG,have together tocreatevalue?Thesesixdistinctvalue exchanges doingthiswork?Howcanwework to createabusinesscaseoftheirown:Whyare well-run companies,exchangesarecompelled faced withthevariantopinionsofthousands companies. As part of that engagement, and partners, and investment facilitators for public often serveasESGtouchpoints,training increasing importancetoourissuers.Exchanges tactical concernsthatexchangesbelieveareof But thislistdoesnotaddressotherimpacts, • • • • • • • • • • a hostofbusinessdrivers,including: New product and service innovation New productandserviceinnovation Mergers andacquisitions Employee retentionandrecruitment Human capitalmanagement License tooperate Brand valueandreputation Revenue growthandmarketaccess Risk management Cost savingsandproductivity Access tocapital CFI.co Columnist 21 Spring 2017 Issue Spring ABOUT THE AUTHOR Evan Harvey is the Director of Corporate Responsibility for Nasdaq. He also serves on the Board of Directors for the UNGC US Network Group at and chairs the Sustainability Working Federation of Exchanges. the World CFI.co | Capital Finance International no longer optional. Companies with a neutral or negative perception on this topic have trouble finding and keeping talent and tend to pay more for it. Enterprise Risk Management 6. True Companies (and especially boards) wishing to have a full understanding of their long-term risk profile cannot ignore ESG factors. The resources required to manufacture a product, for example, must be in place (and similarly priced) for many years into the future. The risks that may arise due to social inequities, or labour dynamics, must be adequately forecast. Public company board members are taking a more holistic view of the organisation than ever before, thinking (in some cases) beyond the fiduciary boundaries of shareholder return. Based on these dynamics, feedback from investors and issuers, and the growing awareness of global smarta that exchanges to clear it’s regulators, and strategic process of monitoring, managing, isThis preferential. ESG data is of reporting and the way we can help to create better companies – and better markets – for years to come. i

volatility, and better valuation over the long term.” and better valuation volatility, between companies with good ESG practices and otherbetween companies positives, such as lower cost of capital, lower stock pricepositives, such as lower “Academics and investors have been able to find correlation“Academics and investors Source: Bloomberg 5. Boosting Recruitment & Retention Good ESG policies (though often expressed, with purposeful nuance, as corporate social responsibility or corporate citizenship plans) are 4. Redefining Internal Value Metrics 4. Redefining Internal Value ESGof analysis and integration Successful data (and related exercises, such as materiality analyses) can lead to direct energy cost savings, elimination of organisational redundancies, innovative new products and services, and even improved staff morale – all of which have tangible economic impacts. 3. Broadening Investor Outreach Sustainable andAccording to the Forum for Responsible Investment (US SIF), “more than one out of every five dollars under professional management in the United States – $8.72 SRIto according invested was – more or trillion investing)Impact Responsible, (Sustainable, strategies.” A significant knowledge gap still exists between investors and IR on the topic of ESG disclosure, and exchanges work diligently with companies to turn sustainability into a positive outbound narrative for corporates. > Robert J Shiller: Robotization Without Taxation?

he idea of a tax on robots was raised last The public reaction to Mrs Delvaux’s proposal Technologies miniature self-driving vehicles, is May in a draft report to the European has been overwhelmingly negative, with the replacing restaurant delivery people. T Parliament prepared by MEP Mady notable exception of Bill Gates, who endorsed Delvaux from the Committee on Legal it. But we should not dismiss the idea out of If these and other labour-displacing innovations Affairs. Emphasizing how robots could hand. In just the past year, we have seen the succeed, surely calls to tax them will grow more boost inequality, the report proposed that there proliferation of devices such as Google Home frequent, owing to the human problems that might be a “need to introduce corporate reporting and Amazon Echo Dot (Alexa), which replace arise when people lose their jobs – often jobs requirements on the extent and proportion of the some aspects of household help. Likewise, the with which they closely identify, and for which contribution of robotics and AI to the economic Delphi and nuTonomy driverless taxi services they may have spent years preparing. Optimists results of a company for the purpose of taxation in Singapore have started to replace taxi point out that there have always been new jobs and social security contributions.” drivers. And Doordash, which uses Starship for people replaced by technology; but, as the

22 CFI.co | Capital Finance International Spring 2017 Issue

robot revolution accelerates, doubts about From 1920 to 1933, the United States how well this will work out continue tried a much harsher market intervention: to grow. A tax on robots, its advocates outright prohibition of alcoholic beverages. hope, might slow down the process, at But it turned out to be impossible to least temporarily, and provide revenues eliminate alcohol consumption. The to finance adjustment, like retraining alcohol tax that accompanied the end programs for displaced workers. of Prohibition was a milder form of discouragement. Such programmes may be as essential as our work is to healthy human life Discussion of a robot tax should consider as we know it. In his book Rewarding what alternative we have to deal with rising Work, Edmund S Phelps emphasised the inequality. It would be natural to consider fundamental importance of maintaining a a more progressive income tax and a “place in society – a calling”. When many “basic income”. But, these measures do people are no longer able to find work to not have widespread popular support. If support a family, troubling consequences support is not widespread, the tax, even if ensue, and, as Mr Phelps stresses, “the imposed, will not last. functioning of the entire community may be impaired.” In other words, there are When taxes on high incomes are raised, externalities to robotization that justify usually in wartime, it turns out to be only some government intervention. temporary. Ultimately, it seems natural to most people that taxing successful Critics of a robot tax have emphasised that people to benefit unsuccessful people the ambiguity of the term “robot” makes is demeaning to the latter, and even the defining the tax base difficult. The critics recipients of the handout often do not also stress the new robotics’ enormous, really want it. Politicians know that: they undeniable benefits to productivity growth. usually do not campaign on proposals to confiscate high incomes and pad low But let’s not rule out so quickly at least incomes. modest robot taxes during the transition to a different world of work. Such a tax should So, taxes must be reframed to remedy be part of a broader plan to manage the income inequality induced by robotization. consequences of the robotics revolution. It may be more politically acceptable, and thus sustainable, to tax the robots All taxes, except a “lump-sum tax,” rather than just the high-income people. introduce distortions in the economy. And while this would not tax individual But no government can impose a lump- human success, as income taxes do, it sum tax – the same amount for everyone might in fact imply somewhat higher taxes regardless of their income or expenditures on higher incomes, if high incomes are – because it would fall heaviest on those earned in activities that involve replacing with less income, and it would grind the humans with robots. poor, who might be unable to pay it at all. So taxes have to be related to some activity A moderate tax on robots, even a temporary indicative of ability to pay taxes, and tax that merely slows the adoption of whatever activity it is will be discouraged disruptive technology, seems a natural as a result. component of a policy to address rising inequality. Revenue could be targeted Frank Ramsey published a classic paper toward wage insurance, to help people in 1927 arguing that to minimise taxation- replaced by new technology make the induced distortions, one should tax all transition to a different career. This would activities, and he proposed how to set tax accord with our natural sense of justice, rates. His abstract theory has never been and thus be likely to endure. i a fully operational principle for actual tax rates, but it provides a powerful argument against presuming that the tax should be ABOUT THE AUTHOR “To achieve factor-price zero for all but a few activities, or that all Robert J Shiller, a 2013 Nobel laureate in activities should be taxed at the same rate. Economics and professor of Economics equalisation, people need a stable at Yale University, is co-author, with Activities that create externalities might George Akerlof, of Phishing for Phools: base for a real lifetime career have a higher tax rate than Mr Ramsey The Economics of Manipulation and would have proposed. For example, taxes Deception. connected to a country in which on alcoholic beverages are widespread. Alcoholism is a major social problem. It Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2017. they do not physically reside.” destroys marriages, families, and lives. www.project-syndicate.org

CFI.co | Capital Finance International 23 > Alissa Amico: Corporate Governance at Saudi Aramco

ince the announcement last year that Saudi Aramco does not appear to be warranted by coffers, deepen the equity market, and boost the Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil Saudi Arabia’s current macroeconomic situation. private sector’s role in the economy. Stimulating S company and Saudi Arabia’s corporate Given slightly higher hydrocarbon prices, lower interest in the Saudi capital market with these crown jewel, would go public, the media government expenditures, and potentially higher listings prior to the Saudi Aramco IPO might be have been abuzz with speculation – and tax receipts, many predict that the country’s wise, given that IPOs throughout the Gulf region not just about the company’s massive valuation. budget deficits will narrow. Sovereign borrowing have slumped in recent years. While the initial public offering is expected to is also expected to decline, in stark contrast to happen in 2018, the timing – not to mention the last year’s record-high bond issuance. In any case, despite all the media speculation, approach the government will take – remains far the specifics of how and when Saudi Aramco from certain. Furthermore, the Saudi government has identified will be privatised have not been considered dozens of other state-owned enterprises (SOEs) thoroughly. Although the Saudi Stock Exchange, A short-term “fire sale” of a minority stake in to privatise, in order to help fill government Tadawul, is by far the largest in the Middle East,

24 CFI.co | Capital Finance International Spring 2017 Issue

it is neither large nor open enough to handle Even if Saudi Arabia does choose an the listing of Saudi Aramco, valued by the exchange with high corporate-governance authorities at $2 trillion. standards for its secondary listing, Saudi Aramco could be exempted from that But size is not the only problem. Qualified country’s requirements. As competition for foreign investors, having gained access to high-profile international listings among the Saudi market in 2015, still account for exchanges heats up, the temptation to water only 4% of the market’s overall capitalisation down standards and regulations for dual today. Domestic retail investors account listings is becoming stronger. for 12% of that capitalisation – and are responsible for over 80% of overall trading Just recently, the United Kingdom’s financial activity. watchdog announced that it is considering a new listing segment for international These investors, together with Saudi companies that would enable them to institutional investors, are accustomed to the obtain a London listing without complying use of privatisation as a wealth-distribution with domestic governance standards. The mechanism. But Saudi Arabia is not pursuing announcement highlights the risk of a Saudi Aramco’s partial privatisation to move regulatory race to the bottom, driven not just money from one sovereign pocket to another; by Saudi Aramco’s impending listing, but it needs to raise fresh capital to finance also by financial deregulation in the United its spending needs. Furthermore, a dual- States and fears about Brexit’s consequences pricing approach to privatisation – in which for the City of London. domestic investors are offered equity at a discount – could send the wrong message to It seems clear, therefore, that improvements international investors. to Saudi Aramco’s corporate governance do not rest, on which international venue the A further wrinkle in the pricing process, as authorities choose for the secondary listing, Tadawul’s ex-CEO Adel Al-Ghamdi recently as is commonly assumed, but on whether pointed out, is that Saudi corporate law the company will be required to meet prescribes a fixed-par-value regime for all domestic standards. Because the Saudi of the country’s IPOs. Since domestic retail capital market’s credibility depends on investors expect such pricing, they may be the credibility of the Saudi Aramco listing, reluctant to accept Saudi Aramco’s much it is critical that Saudi Arabia holds Saudi higher share price. Aramco to domestic governance standards.

The mainstream media have left these issues It is encouraging in this regard that Saudi largely unaddressed, preferring to focus Arabia has quietly made major improvements on issues of governance. It is commonly to Saudi Aramco’s corporate governance assumed that a key impediment to Saudi in the last two years. For example, until Aramco’s international listing is that Saudi 2015, Saudi Aramco was overseen by the corporate-governance standards are low, Supreme Petroleum Council, which included and that the Saudi authorities are therefore senior members of the Royal Fam