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Annual Analyses of the EU Air Transport Market 2011 Final Report January 2013 European Commission Annual304243 Analyses ITD ITA of1E the EU Annual Analyses of the EU Air Transport Market - Final Air Transport Market25 January 2011 2013 Final Report January 2013 European Commission Disclaimer and copyright: This report has been carried out for the Directorate General for Mobility and Transport in the European Commission and expresses the opinion of the organisation undertaking the contract MOVE/E1/5-2010/SI2.579402. These views have not been adopted or in any way approved by the European Commission and should not be relied upon as a statement of the European Commission's or the Mobility and Energy DG's views. The European Commission does not guarantee the accuracy of the information given in the report, nor does it accept responsibility for any use made thereof. Copyright in this report is held by the European Communities. Persons wishing to use the contents of this report (in whole or in part) for purposes other than their personal use are invited to submit a written request to the following address :European Commission - DG MOVE - Library (DM28, 0/36) - B-1049 Brussels e-mail (http://ec.europa.eu/transport/contact/index_en.htm) Mott MacDonald, Mott MacDonald House, 8-10 Sydenham Road, Croydon CR0 2EE, United Kingdom t +44 (0)20 8774 2000 f +44 (0)20 8681 5706, W www.mottmac.com Annual Analyses of the EU Air Transport Market 2011 Issue and revision record Revision Date Originator Checker Approver Description A 29 Feb 2012 A. Knight C. Collins A. du Boulay Draft Interim Report B 26 Jun 2012 A. Knight C. Collins A. du Boulay Final Interim Report C 30 Nov 2012 A. Knight C. Collins A. du Boulay Draft Final Report D 19 Dec 2012 A. Knight C. Collins A. du Boulay Draft Final Reportv2 E 25 Jan 2013 A. Knight C. Collins A. du Boulay Final Report This document is issued for the party which commissioned it We accept no responsibility for the consequences of this and for specific purposes connected with the above-captioned document being relied upon by any other party, or being used project only. It should not be relied upon by any other party or for any other purpose, or containing any error or omission which used for any other purpose. is due to an error or omission in data supplied to us by other parties. This document contains confidential information and proprietary intellectual property. It should not be shown to other parties without consent from us and from the party which commissioned it. Mott MacDonald, Mott MacDonald House, 8-10 Sydenham Road, Croydon CR0 2EE, United Kingdom t +44 (0)20 8774 2000 f +44 (0)20 8681 5706, W www.mottmac.com Annual Analyses of the EU Air Transport Market 2011 Content Chapter Title Page Introduction i Executive Summary iii 1. Air Traffic Trends 1 1.1 Introduction ________________________________________________________________________ 1 1.2 Overview of 2011 ____________________________________________________________________ 1 1.3 Air Passenger Traffic Growth in 2011 ____________________________________________________ 9 1.4 Airline Passenger Traffic _____________________________________________________________ 24 1.5 European Union (EU27) Route Competition ______________________________________________ 30 1.6 Trends in Distribution of Supply by Carrier Type ___________________________________________ 33 1.7 European Union air traffic flows ________________________________________________________ 35 1.8 Major Carriers at EEA airports _________________________________________________________ 37 1.9 Air Cargo Traffic Growth _____________________________________________________________ 38 1.10 Business Aviation___________________________________________________________________ 41 2. Air Transport Forecasts 47 2.1 Introduction _______________________________________________________________________ 47 2.2 GDP – The Primary Forecast Driver ____________________________________________________ 47 2.3 ICAO Short Term Forecast ___________________________________________________________ 50 2.4 Long Term Airline Passenger Forecasts _________________________________________________ 52 2.5 EUROCONTROL Flight Movement Forecasts_____________________________________________ 61 2.6 World Air Cargo Forecast ____________________________________________________________ 65 3. Airlines 68 3.1 Overview _________________________________________________________________________ 68 3.2 Airline Financial Performance _________________________________________________________ 68 3.3 Major Market Entries and Exits in Europe ________________________________________________ 76 3.4 Legacy Carriers ____________________________________________________________________ 77 3.5 Regional Airlines ___________________________________________________________________ 86 3.6 Low Cost Carriers __________________________________________________________________ 88 3.7 Charter Airlines ____________________________________________________________________ 94 3.8 Cargo Airlines______________________________________________________________________ 96 4. Airports 103 4.1 Introduction ______________________________________________________________________ 103 4.2 Airport Traffic & Developments in 2011 _________________________________________________ 103 4.3 Airport Charges Regulation __________________________________________________________ 119 4.4 Slot Allocation Issues_______________________________________________________________ 126 5. Aircraft Manufacturing & MRO 130 5.1 Introduction ______________________________________________________________________ 130 5.2 Aeronautics and Manufacturing Overview _______________________________________________ 130 5.3 The Global Aircraft Fleet in 2011 ______________________________________________________ 144 5.4 Maintenance, Repair & Overhaul (MRO) ________________________________________________ 154 304243/ITD/ITA/1/E 25 January 2013 Annual Analyses of the EU Air Transport Market - Final Annual Analyses of the EU Air Transport Market 2011 6. Air Traffic Management 159 6.1 Introduction ______________________________________________________________________ 159 6.2 ATM Cost Effectiveness_____________________________________________________________ 159 6.3 ATM/ANS Standardisation Inspections _________________________________________________ 168 6.4 European ATM Network Management__________________________________________________ 169 6.5 Functional Airspace Blocks (FABs) ____________________________________________________ 171 6.6 SESAR __________________________________________________________________________ 175 6.7 2011 Developments since the Icelandic Volcanic Eruption __________________________________ 180 7. The Internal Market & Competition Issues 184 7.1 Introduction ______________________________________________________________________ 184 7.2 Air Service Agreements with Non-EU Countries __________________________________________ 184 7.3 Competition Issues_________________________________________________________________ 189 7.4 International Developments (outside of the EU) __________________________________________ 202 8. Environmental Development & Sustainability 210 8.1 Introduction ______________________________________________________________________ 210 8.2 ICAO Framework __________________________________________________________________ 210 8.3 Industry Developments & Achievements ________________________________________________ 211 8.4 Sustainable Aviation Fuels___________________________________________________________ 221 8.5 Developments in the United States ____________________________________________________ 225 8.6 European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) ____________________________________ 227 9. Aviation Safety & Security 230 9.1 Introduction ______________________________________________________________________ 230 9.2 2011 Safety Review ________________________________________________________________ 230 9.3 Strategic Safety Issues _____________________________________________________________ 240 9.4 Safety Developments relating to 2011 __________________________________________________ 242 9.5 Aviation Security __________________________________________________________________ 252 10. Consumer Issues 259 10.1 Introduction ______________________________________________________________________ 259 10.2 Punctuality & Delays _______________________________________________________________ 259 10.3 Consumer Protection _______________________________________________________________ 268 Glossary 285 304243/ITD/ITA/1/E 25 January 2013 Annual Analyses of the EU Air Transport Market - Final Annual Analyses of the EU Air Transport Market 2011 Introduction Purpose of the Report Mott MacDonald has been commissioned by the Directorate General for Mobility and Transport (DG MOVE) to provide an annual analysis of the EU Air Transport Industry in 2011. The European Commission has provided such annual reports since 1998; and the Mott MacDonald contract covers the three years of 2010, 2011 and 2012. In undertaking this work, we have been specifically requested to focus on a factual analysis of how and why European air transport has evolved in relation to other global regions, seeking the factors behind changes in trends and policies as well as their consequences. Although this report is publicly available, the primary audience is DG MOVE. In this respect, the report is not intended to be just a statistical compendium or an activity report of aviation events that have happened in 2011. This knowledge
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