Does the Elephant Dance? This page intentionally left blank Does the Elephant Dance? Contemporary Indian Foreign Policy David M. Malone 1 1 Great Clarendon Street, Oxford ox2 6dp Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide in Oxford New York Auckland Cape Town Dar es Salaam Hong Kong Karachi Kuala Lumpur Madrid Melbourne Mexico City Nairobi New Delhi Shanghai Taipei Toronto With offices in Argentina Austria Brazil Chile Czech Republic France Greece Guatemala Hungary Italy Japan Poland Portugal Singapore South Korea Switzerland Thailand Turkey Ukraine Vietnam Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press in the UK and in certain other countries Published in the United States by Oxford University Press Inc., New York q David M. Malone 2011 The moral rights of the author have been asserted Database right Oxford University Press (maker) First published 2011 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted by law, or under terms agreed with the appropriate reprographics rights organization. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the address above You must not circulate this book in any other binding or cover and you must impose the same condition on any acquirer British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Data available Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Data available Typeset by SPI Publisher Services, Pondicherry, India Printed in Great Britain on acid-free paper by MPG Books Group, Bodmin and King’s Lynn ISBN: 978–0–19–955202–3 13579108642 For my Indian friends, who did so much to make my time among them in India a very exciting and happy one. South Asia, Map No. 4140, Rev. 3, January 2004 Source: Reproduced by kind permission from the UN. Contents Acknowledgements viii Abbreviations xiv Preface xvii 1. Introduction 1 2. History: A Vital Foundation of India’s International Relations 19 3. India’s Contemporary Security Challenges: More Internal than External? 47 4. India’s Economy: Its Global Calling Card 75 5. India and Its South Asian Neighbours 101 6. The Sino-Indian Relationship: Can Two Tigers Share a Mountain? 129 7. India–USA Relations: The Shock of the New 153 8. India’s West Asia Policy: Delicate Manoeuvres 179 9. India’s East and Southeast Asia Policy: Catching Up 198 10. India’s Relationships with Europe and Russia: Fading Glory? 224 11. The Evolution of Indian Multilateralism: From High Ground to High Table 249 12. Conclusions 274 Notes 304 Bibliography 379 Index 411 vii Acknowledgements Many institutions, friends, and acquaintances have helped make this venture possible. Independent scholarship is both difficult and lonely. Consequently, I have always sought to anchor my research activity in a high-quality academic or research institution. For this project, I was fortunate to be welcomed into the Centre on International Cooperation (CIC) at New York University. Infused with energy, creativity, and ambition, powered by a terrific young team, and led with great skill by Bruce D. Jones, CIC was entering a phase of new engagement with emerging states in 2007. It generously funded this project’s research expenses, including an exciting seminar on Indian foreign policy in New York in October 2009. I am deeply grateful to all those involved at CIC, particularly to Bruce and to Rahul Chandran. In expanding my knowledge, I wanted to work predominantly with In- dians, as I wanted Indian perspectives above all to inform this book. I have benefited from outstanding research assistance that developed into full- fledged research partnerships. Rohan Mukherjee was recommended to me by two prominent Indians, Pratap Bhanu Mehta, President of the Centre for Policy Research (CPR) in Delhi, and Sam Pitroda, a leading entrepreneur, youthful advisor to the late Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, and, during my years in Delhi, Chair of India’s Knowledge Commission. From his perch at Princeton University, Rohan and I engaged together on India’s security preoccupations, India–USA and India– China relations, and on India’s approach to multilateral diplomacy. I have benefited hugely from his sharp mind, his elegant prose, his enthusiasm, and his boundless generosity of spirit.1 Taru Dalmia, with whom I explored the links between India’s history and the development of its modern foreign policy, returned to Delhi in 2007 from the School of Oriental and African Studies in London with a Masters degree. In Delhi, he somehow combined further study of history, his avocation as a well- known rap artist (under the moniker Delhi Sultanate), and his interest in the martial arts, finding time also for our work together. He is an exceptionally gifted thinker and writer, and I am very grateful to him for kicking off this venture with me in 2007. viii Acknowledgements Helping shape my ideas on India’s immediate neighbourhood was Rajeev Ranjan Chaturvedy, then a doctoral candidate at JNU and a professional development award holder at the International Development Research Centre (IDRC) in Ottawa, whose thesis focuses on China’s penetration of India’s sphere of influence.2 We also worked together on the links between India’s economy and the changes in its foreign policy since independence.3 I am very grateful to him for educating me. Several others proved excellent research partners: Andrew Brunatti, now a doctoral candidate at Brunel University, London, UK, sketched out in depth India’s approach to Middle East diplomacy.4 We also worked together on India’s ties with Russia and Western Europe.5 Andrew tackled these dimen- sions of India’s foreign relations with skill, keen research instincts, and enthu- siasm. Poorvi Chitalkar, a very impressive Indian law scholar, helped shape many of my conclusions, provided acute comments on the remainder of the manuscript, and kept the project on track, intellectually and logistically, during its final phases. Archana Pandya, who also helped greatly with manu- script preparation, worked with me on India’s ‘Look East’ policy, bringing order and sharp analysis to a cacophony of relationships all claiming some- how to be ‘strategic’.6 To all three I am most grateful and from each I expect great achievements in years ahead. My two employers during the years that the book was written, the Depart- ment of Foreign Affairs and International Trade of Canada and Canada’s IDRC, were tremendously supportive. I am grateful in particular to IDRC Chairman Barbara McDougall, and to Peter Harder and Marie-Lucie Morin, who earlier proved exceptionally helpful within Canada’s government, not least in favouring my assignment to India. It is obvious, but I reiterate, that the views advanced in subsequent pages are my own alone, and emphatically not those of either the Canadian government or of IDRC. My Indian friends did everything they could to help with this project. Professional and personal friends, including many politicians and officials, took time to share with me their views and experience. I shall not name them here, but they know the depth of my gratitude to them. However, I will make an exception to record my heartfelt appreciation to Romila Thapar and Rama- chandra Guha, surely among the busiest and most highly regarded historians active anywhere today, for introducing me to Indian history on the page and in person, as well as for their kindness in providing a corrective steer here and there to my thinking. Two of India’s leading Think Tanks, the CPR and the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER), each generously or- ganized a round-table in early 2010 to allow me to explore with knowledge- able Indians aspects of their country’s multilateral relations. I am very grateful to the respective heads, Pratap Bhanu Mehta and Rajiv Kumar, for taking so ix Acknowledgements much time and trouble to make these very useful sessions happen. Pratap has greatly influenced my thinking on India’s international engagement and Rajiv’s views on India’s international economic relations are always insightful and authoritative. I had been keen on visiting Pakistan again while working on this book, a wish that came true in February 2010, allowing me to re-acquaint myself with Lahore, still the most beautiful large city of South Asia, after an absence of thirty-five years. There, I was struck by the courage and resiliency of the great Pakistani analyst and scholar Ahmed Rashid, who remains fearless in face of those whom his views antagonize. Islamabad was grim, but still host to many fascinating and impressive Pakistanis. Indians and Pakistanis are such close cousins that one experiences a false sense of sameness. While Indians are confident (if, among themselves, mostly self-critical), Pakistanis today are very worried—not least to see India pulling away from them in terms of economic dynamism and also in the now deep-rooted nature of its democracy. Pakistanis deserve better and will, I hope, achieve in years ahead the society and economy they aspire to. A conference at Ditchley Park in March 2010 on India as a potential super- power, with a stellar Indian cast of participants, produced useful ideas in a beautiful English country house setting. The Ditchley Foundation has experi- enced a golden age under the leadership of Sir Jeremy Greenstock, and I am indebted to him and his colleagues for including me in the conference when I had so little to contribute compared to others attending.7 One writer on Indian foreign policy who has consistently influenced my thinking is C.