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September 23, 2009 - http://embassymag.ca/page/printpage/pakistan-9-23-2009 Searching for a Pakistan policy By Lee Berthiaume On a cold winter morning in mid-January, about 90 academics, journalists, former political leaders and diplomats gathered in a room in the Ottawa headquarters of Canada's spy agency, the Canadian Security Intelligence Service. While drawn from different backgrounds, they all shared one thing in common: deep interest or expertise in Pakistan.
The next two days were spent discussing the factors that had contributed to the South Asian country being named one of the most dangerous countries in the world in terms of global stability. The participants also laid out possible scenarios for Pakistan's future. The main ideas were captured in a report that would support "the Embassy Photo: Lee Berthiaume development of an informal community of interest on Pakistan's Pakistan High Commissioner Akbar Zeb says his security within the government of Canada." country wants the Canadian government to start working on a free trade agreement with his country, Yet noticeably absent from the report were any policy suggestions for increase aid and lift arms trading restrictions. Canada, whose own interest in Afghanistan's nuclear-armed neighbour cannot be understated. In fact, the only real mention of Canada came in explaining the implications Pakistan's deteriorating security situation would have on Canada.
Eight years after 9/11 put Pakistan on the front lines of the global war on terror, critics say the government has failed to fully grasp the need for a comprehensive policy towards the country. In particular, they argue the government has failed to keep step with its allies, a deficiency that is having serious ramifications on the Canadian mission in Afghanistan.
Meanwhile, Pakistan's own high commissioner to Canada is hoping for substantive changes in Canada's Pakistan policy in the near future. However, he warns against looking at his country solely through the lens of Afghanistan like other countries have started to do.
Security risk
The list of participants at the two-day session at CSIS reads like a phone book of Afghanistan-Pakistan experts. Barnett Rubin, Mark Sedra, Janice Gross Stein, Elliot Tepper and Stephen Cohen. Equally impressive was the list of government officials on-hand, including CSIS director Jim Judd and Canadian High Commissioner to Pakistan Randolph Mank.
According to the report, there are a number of serious implications for Canada tied up with any weakening of Pakistani security. All but one—the fallout of a nuclear war with India—relate to terrorism and Afghanistan. Taliban utilization of border areas, attacks on NATO supply routes for the Afghan mission, and the continued use of Pakistan as a safe haven for terrorists are all mentioned.
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Canada, to date, has lost 131 soldiers, one diplomat and two aid workers since the US-led invasion of Afghanistan following the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. It has also spent billions of dollars on assistance and counter-insurgency fighting.
Since moving into Kandahar province in southern Afghanistan in 2005, lawlessness on the Pakistani side of the border and the presence of extremists and fighters has had a direct impact on the Canadian mission. Insurgents recruit, reorganize and rearm in the Pakistani border areas before crossing back into Kandahar and other border provinces to resume fighting.
At the same time, weak governance and rule of law means the border region remains a base for terrorists hoping to take the war to their enemies' doorsteps. This, the participants argued, poses a direct threat to Canada.
"Until recently, Canada's experience of jihadi terrorism has had a North African face (symbolised by Ahmed Rassam)," reads the CSIS report, referring to the Algerian man tried to sneak into the US from Canada with a plan to blow up Los Angeles Airport on Dec. 31, 1999.
However, the participants said that the only conviction to-date under Canada's Anti-Terrorism Act was Pakistani- Canadian Momin Khawaja. He was convicted in October 2008 for building bombs, facilitating terrorism and receiving terrorism training in Pakistan. The participants noted that "Like Khawaja, other Canadian residents have received terrorism training in Pakistan."
Catching up
On March 27, US President Obama unveiled his administration's new policy on Afghanistan—and, as it turned out, the region. He'd already named American heavy-weight diplomat Richard Holbrooke his new special representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan in January, and the new strategy solidified the shift in US policy to "two countries but one challenge."
"The future of Afghanistan is inextricably linked to the future of its neighbour, Pakistan," Mr. Obama said in a televised address. "In the nearly eight years since 9/11, al-Qaeda and its extremist allies have moved across the border to the remote areas of the Pakistani frontier.... They have used this mountainous terrain as a safe-haven to hide, train terrorists, communicate with followers, plot attacks, and send fighters to support the insurgency in Afghanistan."
Following the 9/11 attacks, Pakistan—then led by Pervez Musharraf, the general who ousted the previous president through a coup in 1999—was one of the primary countries the US turned to for assistance in conducting the war in Afghanistan. Faced with appearing to look like an American puppet or refusing the world's only remaining superpower, Mr. Musharraf and his government walked a balancing act over the next few years.
"From the start it was a clear message from President Bush that you're either with us or against us," says Anthony Cordesman, an expert on Afghanistan and Pakistan at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "The problem in reality, however, is how much pressure can you put on Pakistan? How much does Pakistan actually react to that pressure positively?"
During the next few years, American policy towards Pakistan largely focused on ensuring the security of its nuclear weapons from terrorists. Yet it was widely acknowledged that defeating the insurgents in Afghanistan—which had taken second-fiddle to Iraq—meant tackling them in Pakistan, directly or indirectly.
"It certainly isn't a case where anyone ever thought you could decouple Afghanistan and Pakistan," says Mr. Cordesman.
Yet experts and critics lamented the absence of any real strategy for dealing with Afghanistan and Pakistan together. The Obama administration's plan appeared to placate many of those critics, and was widely welcomed. Among the steps to be taken were a three-fold increase in aid to Pakistan to $1.5 billion (US) and a ramped up diplomatic presence, led by Mr. Holbrooke.
On April 23, the House of Commons Special Afghanistan committee travelled to Washington to discuss the new American
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approach to the region. It tabled a report on the trip in early June.
"If one message stood out from the committee's meetings in Washington, it was that the United States has come to recognize the critical importance of Pakistan to any chance of lasting success in Afghanistan," the committee wrote, "but more fundamentally to stability and peace in the region as a whole."
The committee went on to cite one senior US official as stating that while the situation in Afghanistan remained a serious challenge, it was a more "intellectually manageable" problem than that of Pakistan. "Pakistan is not only the most important US partner in the fight against al-Qaeda," the committee wrote, "but also the most difficult one."
Other countries heavily committed in Afghanistan, such as the UK and France, have followed suit with their own regional approaches, including naming their own super envoys to mimic Mr. Holbrooke's role.
Ottawa has remained noticeably low-key when it comes to Pakistan. Critics say the government's policy towards Pakistan has been sorely lacking. In particular, they allege the government has failed to recognize the important link between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
"We've come late to the game. I'm not sure if they fully understand it yet," says NDP Foreign Affairs critic Paul Dewar. "I'm assuming they have people within the department who have done the analysis. So the question is how is our policy reflecting what everybody knows, that Pakistan is as much or more of a problem than Afghanistan?"
"We've been very slow," agrees Liberal Foreign Affairs critic Bob Rae. One of Mr. Rae's enduring criticisms of the government's policy in the region has been the absence of a special representative like Mr. Holbrooke. The Manley report itself, he argues, specifically recommended such an envoy.
"My view all the way through is I don't think the political and diplomatic efforts of the government have matched in any way, shape or form the level of sacrifice of our troops. I don't see the co-ordination from Ottawa that we need to see."
The government, which wholeheartedly endorsed the Manley report in March 2008, has repeatedly rejected such a proposal. Instead, it says its ambassador in Afghanistan and high commissioner in Pakistan provide adequate representation on the ground. The deputy minister of the Privy Council Office's task force rounds things out as the main co-ordinator.
Yet the degree to which Pakistan and Afghanistan have been melded, at least in official Ottawa, remains unclear. In an interview with Foreign Affairs officials in July, outgoing ambassador to Afghanistan Ron Hoffman mentioned Pakistan twice, referring only to the border management issues in an offhand manner. An interview with David Mulroney in December, who was at the time the government's top bureaucrat on the mission in Afghanistan, yielded even less.
The border
The crux of Canada's Afghan-Pakistan strategy revolves around managing the porous and volatile border between the two countries.
The Dubai Process was initiated in November 2007 and seeks to bring officials on both sides of the border together to essentially get to know each other and air their concerns.
The importance of the border cannot be overstated. In his speech to unveil his administration's new strategy, Mr. Obama said: "For the American people, this border region has become the most dangerous place in the world."
In an email to Embassy earlier this month, Foreign Minister Lawrence Cannon wrote that Canada has earmarked $32 million until 2011 to facilitate these talks and help border management.
"Canada's focus on the border as a priority extends to all border regions," he added. "We believe that successful border management is one of the keys to stability, security and prosperity for both countries and for the entire region."
Yet critics aren't sold. So far, agreements on such things as customs, counter-narcotics and managing the movement of
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people have been signed. Most recently, an action plan has been developed and meetings between Afghan and Pakistani military officials have been facilitated. But Canada hasn't presented any substantive results to show the border is improving.
"It's more like a convenient excuse that they're doing something, but the evidence of outcome is scarce and rare," Mr. Dewar says of the Dubai Process. "So I think it's a smart avenue to follow. I think we should be doing that. But the question is where's the result for that and where's the evidence that we are really are earnestly pursuing this?
"What hasn't happened in Ottawa is what has been acknowledged in Washington," he added. "Afghanistan is a symptom of the cause of what's happened in Pakistan."
Whole-of-country approach
This week, Prime Minister Stephen Harper will be in New York and Pittsburgh for a number of high-level meetings, including the G20. One of those will be with the pseudo-donor group the Friends of Democratic Pakistan.
While the meeting—two others involving foreign ministers have been held since April—will address issues related to Afghanistan and the border, it actually seeks to tackle problems affecting the whole of Pakistan. That appears to be in line with the Conservative government's focus as well.
"At the core of the Canadian approach is the recognition that the people of Pakistan must be given the certainty that their political and democratic institutions are strong, transparent and inclusive," Mr. Cannon wrote in an email to Embassy explaining the government's policy towards Pakistan. "Some of the challenges we see ahead include: a stable security environment; sustained political will and co-operation at the federal and provincial levels as well as effective donor co-ordination.
"Canada firmly believes that a strong political and democratic culture is essential to bring long-term stability and development to the Pakistani people," the minister added.
Daniel Markey, a former US State Department official who is now an expert on the region with the Council on Foreign Relations, says one thing he has seen in Washington is that the link between Afghanistan and Pakistan may be going too far.
"The thing that I worry about, and I see some signs of this every so often, is an Afghanization of strategic mindset when it comes to Pakistan," he says. "By that I mean you see Pakistan as if it is very similar to Afghanistan.
"The AfPak shift and creation of a special representative and new institutional structures in the US government, I think has been healthy because what came before it was so unhealthy."
The truth, Mr. Markey says, is that the majority of Pakistanis face very different problems from their Afghan neighbours. To put it in perspective, the population of Pakistan's tribal areas is about 3 million, while the city of Karachi is roughly 18 million.
"If you're worried about the stability or instability of Pakistan, you should be more worried about Karachi," Mr. Markey says. "You are going to, even if you want to link the two issues together, need to have a significant presence in Pakistan and you are going to need to think about it separately from Afghanistan.
Seeing Pakistan through the lens of Canada's Afghan mission makes sense only from a narrow perspective, he says.
"But if it chooses to widen its perspective, then it will have to recognize that Pakistan is no appendage of Afghanistan. If anything, it's the opposite."
Pakistan's high commissioner to Ottawa, Akbar Zeb, also warns against what he sees in other countries: looking at his country solely through the Afghan lens.
"We take exception, really, to the AfPak terminology," he says. "We feel that we are two different countries with two
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different backgrounds, and different problems, in a sense. So lumping Afghanistan and Pakistan together may not be such a good idea."
Mr. Zeb, while hoping for more engagement with Canada, believes the government have been "very cognizant" of the differences between the two countries.
"They have treated Afghanistan and Pakistan sort of separately," he says. "You can't view Pakistan through the prism of Afghanistan-Pakistan. It has its own importance, geostrategic and otherwise."
Canada has a history of working with Pakistan that goes back to the South Asian country's earliest years. Canada was involved in finding a resolution to Pakistan's dispute with India over Kashmir since the 1950s, and has also helped its agricultural industry and infrastructure like hydro-electric dams.
More recently, Canadian exports to the country have grown steadily to $550 million in 2008, imports have remained steady at around $245 million, Canadian investment in the country is valued at only $32 million.
Strangely, however, Canadian aid levels to Pakistan dropped off after 9/11. According to a government report, assistance stood at $23.7 million in 2000/01, but had fallen to $16.9 million by 2002/03.
Canadian aid disbursements to Pakistan have been increasing over the past two years or so. But assistance for the whole of Pakistan was $44.5 million in 2007/08—which included about $6 million in assistance related to the 2005 South Asian earthquake. Afghanistan—primarily Kandahar province—received $280 million for the same time period.
Aside from the obvious disparity in assistance levels, government reports indicate that because of recent violence along the border, Foreign Affairs and CIDA staff in Pakistan have been unable to get to the tribal areas to monitor projects for several months. Unlike in Kandahar, there is no Canadian military to provide security in the border areas.
On Aug. 12, CIDA Minister Bev Oda toured the dusty Jalozai camp in Pakistan where thousands of Pakistanis had fled fighting between the country's military and insurgents who had taken over Swat Valley. It was the minister's first trip to the country and included an announcement of $25 million in humanitarian assistance for the IDPs.
During a teleconference with a small number of Canadian reporters, Ms. Oda indicated that she had had "very extensive discussions about Canada's future engagement in Pakistan."
Ms. Oda said she met with government officials and ministers specifically to discuss the border areas, including Baluchistan, the province across the border from Kandahar. Ms. Oda also said the officials "recognize the importance of the border situation" and that Canada agrees with the American view that Pakistan is important to achieving Canadian objectives Afghanistan.
As one of the government's countries of focus for aid, Pakistan is in line to see more bilateral assistance directed it, and Ms. Oda promised "there will be increased contributions."
"However, [they will be] tailored to wherever Canada can be effective, where we can make a difference to the people here in Pakistan," she added, citing assistance for education and maternal health as examples.
Mr. Zeb says he understands the Canadian government is currently reviewing its policy towards his country.
"There is also the promise of greater involvement with Pakistan," he says, adding that the visits of Ms. Oda in August and Defence Minister MacKay in May were promising.
"The indications, basically, in the two important visits that we've had is that Canada wants to engage more with Pakistan. And also Minister Cannon's participation in the Friends of Democratic Pakistan was also a strong signal that Canada is behind Pakistan's development."
Three things Pakistan would like to see in a new Canadian policy: increased assistance, particularly to the border areas and tribal regions; a free trade agreement to spur economic growth; and the lifting of an embargo on arms trading
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implemented in the late 1990s.
Mr. Cannon said what is underway is not a policy review per se. Instead, it is an ongoing process. Despite this, he said his office is aware of the Pakistan government's hopes for a new Canadian policy for the South Asian country.
While "always interested in fostering improved ties," the minister made no mention of a free trade agreement. Rather, he said, Canada is "focusing on the many needs of Pakistan's citizens, particularly in the area of security, stability and economic and social development." As for restrictions on arms exports, he said there are no plans to lift them.
That leaves increased assistance on Pakistan's wish list. If the trend continues, more money will be on the way. Yet concerns about accountability and transparency have dominated the Obama administration's own attempts to get aid levels increased. So far, the two houses of Congress have not been able to agree on how much oversight and conditionality must be built in.
During her teleconference, Ms. Oda indicated to reporters the Canadian government is considering the same issue.
"We're encouraging the government to share their plans with us in any one sector and we've also indicated the need for full accountability and transparency," she said. "And they've indicated a willingness to work with the international community in providing the kind of transparency and accountability that all countries are requiring."
But demands for accountability and transparency have largely stalled US attempts to ramp up assistance to Pakistan, says Mr. Markey. Different conditions are being built into funding bills being considered in the two houses of Congress, but he foresees the end result being the same.
"Even if they could roll out this money, I have almost no confidence that in the first year, the second year, they will be able to spend it in a way that is accountable to the US taxpayer, that is transparent to the Pakistani citizens so they know where the money is going, and that is effective."
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