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Pacific Ocean HAWKESBURY-NEPEAN VALLEY FIGURE 1 REGIONAL FLOOD STUDY HAWKESBURY-NEPEAN RIVER FINAL REPORT CATCHMENT JULY 2019 ! Brooklyn Sydney ! ! 1 Spencer 2 Pacific Ocean ry u b s e r 3 ! k e Parramatta w iv a R H Wisemans Ferry ! 4 5 Cattai ! 6 8 Wollongong ! 7 9 Lower er ! iv Portland ! ld R Wilberforce 11 10 ona er cd ! iv r Ma Windsor 12 R e ! v Sou H ct i Freemans Reach th C u a R reek m r x O e ta u ld M a a 13 H o C e um to rd ! r North Richmond 14 ! r e w o Colo Penrith ive H ay C ! ig ! R A Putty Road Yarramundi Bridge 15 n hw vo Heights d ea a n Ri a r Bents v ! y e ! 16 p r e y e o a Wallacia N v Basin r ! R i w ve Nowra r Ri f R o e t rk o o 17 Bu e M s e 4 n o i ! r M Warragamba Dam L G r s e l l v e i B r R e Riv o le l t Lit o C Lake Burragorang Bowral ! d iver x R attai m N . t n e ! m Katoomba h c t a c K _ ow a m e u r ng a R y r ve iv d i s R er u x t Co S ! _ Lithgow 1 W 0 o e r l l u o g n i d F \ i l l 6 y 1 R 7 0 i v 9 e 1 r _ l a n i F \ t r o p e R _ n i a M \ S ! F Goulburn _ m i r Mulwaree River e t n I \ p a M c r ´ A \ S I G c r Key Locations A \ 4 e Major Roads g a t S Rivers _ \ 1 3 Catchment Boundary 0 3 1 1 \ s 0 10 20 40 60 80 b o J Km \ : J HAWKESBURY-NEPEAN VALLEY FIGURE 2 REGIONAL FLOOD STUDY STUDY AREA FINAL REPORT JULY 2019 ! Brooklyn Sydney ! 1 Spencer ! 2 P ac P if ac ic ifi Mo c H torway ig hw ay 3 ! Gunderman Parramatta ! Wisemans Ferry ! 4 d x ! m . Leets Vale 8 5 ! 1 0 Cattai 1 Clifton 6 2 Lodge ! ! _ 8 Cattai Creek a e Port r a Lower Erringhi _ 6 n Portland 9 i ! a l 7 Ebenezer Gronos Point p d ! o ! Pitt Town o ! l Lower Portland f Sackville _ a e ! r Wilberforce a y d 11 u ! t Windsor 10 South Creek S _ ! 2 Windsor 0 e r u ! g i Freemans Reach F Freemans 12 \ 6 1 Reach 7 ! O Hu 0 m Rickabys Creek ld H e M 9 u o 1 m to _ e r l w H a a d i y n a g i o h F 13 R \ w t n r r a he y o t ! or p North Richmond North ! e N e Penrith 14 Th R Road Richmond _ Putty n i Penrith ! 15 a Colo Heights ! M Yarramundi Bridge \ S Castlereagh F _ Dargle ! m i ! Bents Basin r Wallacia Wallacia e t 17 n ! I 16 \ p a d a Nepean ´ M o y c R a Junction r f w gh o i A H \ rn e este S Key Locations n W I i t L G a c e s r r Gauging Stations l l G A e \ ! 4 Sackville B Warragamba Dam e Major Roads g a t S Floodplain Extent (PMF) _ \ 1 3 Sackville Ferry Catchment Boundary 0 3 1 Merrit Farm 1 \ s 0 2.5 5 10 15 20 b o J km \ : J ! ! ! ! J:\Jobs\113031\_Stage3\Excel\Stochastic_Drawdown_Averages.xlsx 2500000 Full Supply Level 2000000 1500000 Storage (m³) 1000000 WARRAGAMBA DAM WARRAGAMBA 500000 In accordance with standard practice, the dam is assumed to be full at the PMF and for events above the 1 in 10 000 AEP. LEVEL SUPPLY FULL Warragamba Dam would be below full supply level at commencement of storms in 11% of modelled 1 in 100 DISTRIBUTION AEP events DRAWDOWN DRAWDOWN 0 FIGURE 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Probability (Percent) 1 in 100 AEP 1 in 50 AEP 1 in 20 AEP 1 in 10 AEP 1 in 5 AEP 3 J:\Jobs\113031\_Stage4\Excel\Interim_FS\Figure03_04_PreDamFloodLevels_CumulativeRankedInflows.xlsx 2500000 2000000 Full Supply Level 1500000 ) 3 PRE Storage (m 1000000 - EVENT WARRAGAMABA LEVELS DAM WARRAGAMABA EVENT CUMULATIVE RANKED INFLOWS RANKED CUMULATIVE 500000 Hydroelectric Power Scheme Present. Storage in Previous Month For Rank N Inflow Event (2000 sets of 100 Year Simulations). 0 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% FIGURE 4 Probability (Percent) Rank 1 Rank 1 to 2 Rank 1 to 5 Rank 1 to 10 Rank 1 to 20 All Data Top 10 Historical Floods 1962-2012 (~Rank1-20) J:\Jobs\113031\FFA\Processed Data\Flike_FFA_results_all_2 100000 Estimated Discharges (year) Expected Probability 90% Confidence limit 10000 1867 1864 1900 /s) 3 1000 Peak Discharge (m DischargePeak FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS FREQUENCY FLOOD 100 Q 1% AEP = 12400 m3/s LP3 analysis - Bayesian Gauged record: 1909 - 2012 WARRAGAMBA Included 1864, 1867 and 1900 events, 43 years below 500 m3/s Ungauged record:1791 - 1908, 115 years below 14600 m3/s FIGURE 5 10 2 5 10 20 50 100 200 500 1 in X AEP J:\Jobs\113031\FFA\Processed Data\Flike_FFA_results_all_2 100000 Estimated Discharges (year) Expected Probability 90% Confidence limit 1867 10000 1961 1964 1978 /s) 3 1000 PeakDischarge(m FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS FREQUENCY FLOOD 100 Q 1% AEP = 15600 m3/s LP3 analysis - Bayesian Gauged record: 1893 - 2012 Included 1867 event, 26 years below 322 m3/s 3 Ungauged record: 1791 - 1892, 102 years below 20000 m /s PENRITH FIGURE 6 10 2 5 10 20 50 100 200 500 1 in X AEP J:\Jobs\113031\FFA\Processed Data\Flike_FFA_results_all_2 100000 Estimated Discharges (year) Expected Probability 90% Confidence limit 1867 10000 1978 1961 /s) 3 1000 Peak Discharge (m Discharge Peak FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS FREQUENCY FLOOD 100 Q 1% AEP = 11100 m3/s LP3 analysis - Bayesian Gauged record: 1855 - 2012, 97 years below 2020 m3/s 3 Ungauged record: 1791 - 1854, 64 years below 14700 m /s WINDSOR FIGURE 7 10 2 5 10 20 50 100 200 500 1 in X AEP HAWKESBURY-NEPEAN VALLEY FIGURE 8 REGIONAL FLOOD STUDY HYDROLOGIC MODEL LAYOUT FINAL REPORT RORB JULY 2019 B121 Brooklyn Sydney B118 Spencer Pa B120 M cif B119 oto ic rw ay B117 Pacific Ocean ry u b s e r k e B116 w iv Parramatta M115 a R H B77 Wisemans Ferry B76 M111 B101 M114 Cattai B104 B78 S74 M112 B75 W52 M107 M110 Lower Portland B100 River S73 Macdonald B103 Windsor W46 M113 S72 S71 W53 M108 B70 O B102 e n H ld M106 M109 N h er W54 W47 epean T h H um W51 River rt d ig o a h e North Richmond N o w W44 Colo R ay W48 rke U99 P62 W57 W56 W45 Bu Putty Road B69 B63 iver Heights W43 R U98 t W42 U92 ea W55 Nowra M105 e r n G68 G r P60 P40 n te i d y es a W50 L a w W Warragamba W49 o h s g l G67 i l R H r P61 e f Dam R39 W41 e o v U93 B U91 i G65 R e R38 ittl R21 o L r l P59 R22 ive J11 U90 U89 o U97 G66 R C P58 Lake C18 Bowral d Burragorang x Na U96 ttai C19 m C20 . R23 U85 River m U88 n U95 b U94 G64 R36 w U84 _ l R37 e Katoomba R28 d J12 o m U87 R17 J13 _ U83 c i U81 K33 g ´ o J16 l o Coxs r F27 d U86 K30 K31 K32 K35 y River J6 H U80 _ W 8 Lithgow J10 0 RORB F26 o e J7 l r l K34 o u U82 n g Subcatchments i K29 d F i \ l U79 l 6 J15 y 1 Brooklyn R 7 i 0 v 9 J9 e r 1 Causeway F24 F25 _ l a n i Cedar Ford J14 F \ t J5 r o p Burralow e R _ n Jooriland i J8 a M \ Kelpie Point S F J4 _ Goulburn m St Albans i r J3 e t J2 n I \ Penrith p a M Residual Area c r A \ J1 S South Creek I G c r Upper A \ 4 e Colo/Morans g a t Rock S _ \ 1 3 Wallacia 0 3 1 1 \ s 0 10 20 40 60 80 b o J Km \ : J HAWKESBURY-NEPEAN VALLEY FIGURE 9 REGIONAL FLOOD STUDY HYDRAULIC MODEL LAYOUT FINAL REPORT RUBICON JULY 2019 26 ID BOUNDARY AND INFLOW DESCRIPTION 1 Nepean Inflow 2 Warragamba Dam Inflow Pacific Ocean 3 DS Warragamba Dam 4 Erskine Creek Inflow 5 Mulgoa Creek Inflow 6 Glenbrook Creek Inflow 7 Penrith Lakes 8 Grose River Inflow 9 Hawksebury River at Redbank Creek Brooklyn Sydney 25 10 Rickabys Creek Inflow 11 South Creek Upstream 12 Eastern Creek Inflow 23 Spencer 13 South Creek Downstream 14 Wilberforce 24 P ac ifi 15 Cattai Creek Inflow c H ig 16 Little Cattai Creek Inflow hw ay 17 Howes Creek Inflow 18 Colo River Inflow 19 Gorge Local Flows 22 20 Webbs Creek Inflow r e iv 21 Macdonald River Inflow R ry Parramatta u 22 Downstream of Wisemans Ferry b s e k 23 Mangrove Creek Inflow w a H 24 Berowra Creek Inflow d x 25 Mooney Mooney Creek Inflow m .
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