CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGY OF AJARA In preparation of the present Report large group of experts were involved representing: Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources Protection of ; Ministry of Agriculture of Georgia; Ministry of Energy of Georgia; Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia; Ministry of Labor, Health and Social Affairs of Georgia; Ministry of Regional Development and Infrastructure of Georgia; Ministry of Education and Science of Georgia; Separate academic institutions; Ajara Environment Protection and Natural Resources Administration, Municipality; Ajara Municipalities; National experts and NGO representatives. A special desert in the preparation of this document is credited to the UNDP Georgia for assisting the Georgian Government in preparation of the Report.

The views expressed in this publication are those of the author/s and do not necessarily represent those of the United Nations or UNDP.

© UNDP in Georgia 2013 All rights are reserved Published in Georgia ABBREVIATIONS

AR. Autonomous Republic ADB Asian Development Bank BAU Business as Usual C Carbon CDM Clean Development Mechanism CENN Environmental Non-Governmental Network

CH4 Methane CO Carbon oxide

CO2 Carbon dioxide CoM Covenant of Mayors CVDs Cardio-vascular diseases EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and Development EEEF European Energy Efficiency Fund ELENA European Local Energy Assistance EU European Union FAO Food and Agriculture Organization GCM Global Climate Model GDP Cross Domestic Product Gg Gigagram (103 tons) GHG Greenhouse gas GPG Good Practice Guideline GIZ German Agency for International Cooperation GW Gigawatt (109 W= 1 million KW) HI Heat Index HPP Hydro power plant IEE Institute of electrical engineers IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change JESSICA Joint European Support for Sustainable Investment in City Areas JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency KfW German Reconstruction Credit Bank LEPL Legal Entity of Public Low LULUCF Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry MW Megawatt (106 W) NMVOCs Non-methane volatile organic compounds REC Regional Environmental Center RH Relative Humidity SEAP Sustainable Energy Action Plan SIDA Swedish International Development Agency TCI Tourism Climate Index TJ Terajoule (1012 Joule) UNDP United Nation Development Programme UNEP United Nations Development Programme UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund USAID Agency for International Development WB World Bank WHO World Health Organization - 3 - CONTENT

Introduction

1. GHG inventory in Ajara...... 11 1.1. Results of inventory...... 11 1.2. Energy sector...... 12 1.3. Industrial processes...... 15 1.4. Land use, Land use change and Forestry (LULUCF)...... 16 1.5. Waste sector...... 18

2. Climate change in Ajara...... 23 2.1. Description of Ajara Climate...... 23 2.2. Current changes in climate of Ajara region...... 25 2.3. Forecast of climate change in Ajara region...... 27

3. Climate change vulnerability of Ajara area...... 33 3.1. Land resources of Ajara Autonomous Republic...... 33 3.2. Natural disasters in Ajara...... 47 3.3. Ajara coastal zone...... 55 3.4. Forestry sector...... 60 3.5. Ajara’s protected areas...... 66 3.6. Agriculture in Ajara...... 71 3.7. Healthcare sector...... 84 3.8.Tourism...... 94 3.9. Ajara’s water resources...... 106

4. Greenhouse gas emissions mitigation policy and measures...... 112 4.1. The energy resources and supply...... 112 4.2. Energy consumption in Ajara...... 113 4.3. Business As Usual (BAU) GHG emissions scenario (2011-2030)...... 119 4.4. Evaluation of GHG mitigation potential by measures planned in GHG emission mitigation strategy...... 123

5. Climate change strategy of Ajara region...... 128

6. Project proposals...... 165 6.1 Climate change adaptation proposals...... 165 6.1.1. Project proposal for rehabilitation of areas damaged from land erosion in Municipality...... 165 - 4 - 6.1.2. Creation of stationary network for landslides regime observation and early warning system at the territory of Ajara...... 173 6.1.3. Retaining coastal stability in Ajara seashore area...... 180 6.1.4. Establishment of monitoring system aiming at prevention of climate change impact on spreading wreck-diseases in Ajara forests ...... 188 6.1.5. Ways of rehabilitation of degraded sub-alpine forests and increase

of CO2 removals...... 197 6.1.6. Reduction of negative impacts of climate change on stream trout population within the protected areas of Ajara and its neighborhood...... 210 6.1.7. Piloting the establishment of farmers’ union in Khala community ()...... 217 6.1.8. Increasing the tourism potential in Ajara region by effective management of climate-related diseases...... 224

6.2. GHG mitigation proposals ...... 233 6.2.1. Mitigation of GHG emissions from Batumi existing landfill...... 233 6.2.2. Mitigation of methane emissions during the operation of Ajara new landfill...... 240 6.2.3. Measure to mitigate GHG emissions from the transport sector in Batumi – Electric Taxi...... 248 6.2.4. Conversion of Batumi public transport to natural gas fueling..... 258

Annexes ...... 266 Annex I. Variation of climate parameters and extreme indices...... 267 Annex II. Measures to combat sea coastal zone erosion in Ajara...... 269 Annex III. Problems revealed in Agriculture and changes in vegetation periods...... 271 Annex IV. Vulnerability assessment parameters...... 274 Annex V. Health vulnerability indicators...... 275 Annex VI. Some recommendations on the seashore management...... 280 Annex VII. Methane from existing landfill of Batumi...... 282 Annex VIII. Methane from Ajara new landfill...... 283

- 5 - FOREWORD

In accordance with the requirements of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, activities carried out in the country in regard to the climate change problem are occasionally summarized in the National Communications that are discussed and evaluated by the main governing body of the Convention at the annual meetings of the Parties. Following the national communications submitted by Georgia in 1999 and 2009, the country started working on the preparation of the Third National Communication in 2012, the significant part of which is dedicated to the study of climate change current impact on different sectors of economy and natural eco- systems in one of the unique regions of the country – in Ajara. The uniqueness of Ajara is specified by several factors, among which leading is that Ajara for the time being represents the only region in Georgia that is endowed with subtropical climate and relevant recreation resources possessing the huge potential for tourism development. Natural conditions in Ajara contribute to the development of multiple fields of agricultural sector, due to what Ajara can be considered as the specimen area for the development of both national priorities – tourism and agriculture; it can also be regarded as a strategic polygon, where the newest technologies should be introduced in order to reach the most ambitious targets.

One of the serious obstacles on its way to reaching these objectives is caused by the complicated natural conditions of Ajara that are expressed in intensive wash out of sea shores in the coastal zone, abundant precipitation and subsequent destructive extreme events – flash floods, landslides, mudflows and avalanches. The global warming process, due to which significant changes have started in climate of Ajara since the beginning of the current century, has intensified extreme events even more: permanent raising of the sea level and heavy storms create threat to the infrastructure of the coastal zone, flash- floods and landslides result in loss of land, destruction of buildings and the increase in the number of eco-migrants. Together with climate change, the anthropogenic impact on the environment also supports strengthening of the above processes that is caused due to the increase of population and economic activities.

Taking into consideration the above-mentioned circumstances, in the Third National Communication special attention is paid to the study of the current state of Ajara economy and natural ecosystems; definition of current climate change impact and the assessment of the expected changes in climate in the nearest decades using the models elaborated in the frame of the Second National Communication. Within the access of the statistical data, the GHG inventory at the regional level was carried out; possibilities of reduction of GHG emissions and adaptation measures were also considered; Ajara climate change strategy was prepared enabling other regions to conduct the same undertaking.

It should be highlighted, that within this “regional communication” up to 15 project

- 6 - proposals were elaborated aiming at the implementation of specific actions to reduce climate change vulnerability in Ajara; as well as the reduction of GHG emissions from Ajara territory and strengthening the sinks. This report opens the door to the implementation of other environment protection projects needed for Ajara with the help of international donors and other sources.

Head of Directorate for Environment and Natural Resources of Ajara Autonomous Republic Mr. Vakhtang Tsuladze

- 7 - INTRODUCTION

With its unique physical-geographic conditions Ajara holds distinguished place among other regions of Georgia. Strong humid subtropical climate, started with seaside beaches and swampy lowlands and finished with Alpine meadows – a set of diverse landscapes, rich water and forest resources, almost evenly distributed resorts and other resort-related places throughout the whole territory of the region - the wealth concentrated in a relatively small area results in a growing interest towards the economy and natural ecosystems of Ajara.

The resort potential of Ajara was well estimated in the second half of 19th century, when its territory was included in co-called “Russian Riviera”, which consists of Krimmer, Sochi and Georgian seaside. It is remarkable, that high precipitation somehow limited Ajara’s resort potential, but on the other hand, it contributed to the spreading of valuable agriculture crops.

Regarding the relief, Ajara represents quite complicated system of mountains and valleys as a part of the western part of the Meskhetian ridge, which is divided by the main river of the region – Adjaristskali. Seaside at some places is quite wide and represents beaches (Batumi, Chaqvi, Kobuleti) and at some places borders to part of the steep Meskhetian ridge (“Mtsvane Kontskhi”). Coastal zone includes the low- lying regions and mountain slopes of up to 100-200 meters of altitude. Hilly relief in the east part in the range of 200-1 000 meters is turning into mountainous zone, which turns into higher zone of 1 000-2 000 altitude on Meskhetian, Arsiani and Shavshveti hills. The highest mountains of Ajara region (Kentchaula, Sakhornia, Khino, etc.) do not even reach 3 000 meters and they do not have a permanent snow shield. But at the same time, on the Goderdzi pass (2 015 meters) and on the hills of some other mountains the snow shield remains for 7-8 months. Mountains represent 80% of Ajara region, foothills – 15% and lowland – only 5% (2 900 km2).

A 53 km of the seaside relief was significantly changed during the last century due to the sea level raise by 20 cm, construction of the Batumi Port, decreasing in inert material delivered by the Chorokhi River and strengthening the intensity of storm. This segment has lost 150 ha of territory washed out by the Black Sea.

Due to diversity of relief, climate in Ajara varies as well. Until 70-ies of past century mean annual temperature varied from 14.50C (Batumi) to 2.40C (Goderdzi pass). The sum of annual precipitation level was achieving 2 600 mm in lowlands and 1 500 mm in Alpine zones. From 1990, due to the impact of global warming, the climate of Ajara started changing. Particularly, in every climate zone, the number of which is achieving seven, increase in mean annual temperature by 0.2-0.30C was registered. According to that fact, it is projected that the temperature by 2050 will increase by 1.6-1.70C. The different picture was registered in variation of precipitation: in lowland and mountainous zones annual sum of precipitation increased by 16% when in Alpine zones it decreased by 15%. According to the future projection, the slight increase in precipitation is expected by the middle of current century.

- 8 - The variety of relief and climate create high touristic-recreational potential of Ajara. There are officially registered 6 climate and climate-spa resorts and 27 resort places at the territory of the region, with altitude from 0 (Batumi, Kobuleti) to 1 850 meters (Beshumi, Jinali). The touristic potential of Ajara is strengthened by existence of four protected territories (in Kobuleti, Kintrishi, Mtirala and Machakhela), the total area of which is 39 035 ha and is itself 13.5% bigger than the whole area of the region. From this territory the most significant are the National Reserve of Kintrishi, founded in the middle of previous century, and the National Park of Mtirala which was opened in 2006. Those oasis of wild nature, which are very close to Kobuleti (25 km) and Batumi (12 km), are great attractions for many tourists. Due to the fact mentioned above and at the same time, due to the reconstruction of coastal zone facilities can be explained the fact, that the number of visitors in Ajara increased from 80 000 to one million during the past seven years.

In mountainous area of Ajara region the level of mean annual precipitation is 1 300 mm, but in western part of Mtirala Mountain it reaches 4 000 mm (1 334 mm). The high level of precipitation causes abundance of water resources, which is not yet used appropriately. Efficient utilization of technical potential of hydrological recourses of Ajara in addition to other renewable energy resources (wind, sun, biomass) would contribute to the energy independence of the region and its sustainable development despite the absence of fossil fuel.

As well as water resources, Ajara is rich with forests, which covers 60% of territory of the region. The composition of forests varies and includes up to 400 sorts of buses and trees, from which the most widely distributed are: , , , and . During the past half of the century different harmful diseases have started to distribute in the forests of Ajara region. As a result, 6.1% of forests are infected by harmful diseases. Very alarming is the increase in distribution of those diseases in such valuable sorts as are chestnut and boxwood.

In spreading of flora in Ajara, along with climate, contributes distribution of types of soil. From 11 soils registered in this region the most wide-spread are the following: alluvial and red soil (coastal area), gray (mountainous) and the mountain - meadow cord (alpine zone) soils. Last decades due to increase of heavy precipitation and utilization of agriculture lands, significant increase in water erosion of soil in Ajara is noticed, which covers 30-35% of arable lands.

Agricultural lands occupy only 25% of whole territory of Ajara region, from where the biggest part is situated on the slope of more than 10% of inclination. The situation is particularly alarming in sub-alpine zone, where due to active use of land cover by animals, lawn cover of the land was destroyed in many places. That is accompanied by the soil degradation, which is also contributed by cutting down forests. All those processes led to lower the upper limit of forests by 200-300 meters.

In spite of the shortage of agriculture lands, agriculture is quite multi-profile. Due to natural conditions, perennials hold the biggest area (22%) in planting lands after the pastures (51%), in which citrus and fruit dominate. According to agro-climatic

- 9 - conditions, Ajara belongs to the extremely northern zone, which affects the production negatively and increase the chance of frost. In the current century as a result of global warming projected increase of the temperature by 3-40C will create better conditions for citrus production in Ajara region and at the same time, will create necessity of moving of agro-climatic zones. From other brunches of agriculture, production of potato is characterized with high production, which, unlike other industries, in recent years was able to fully satisfy local demand. The horticulture development has a high potential, along with development of tourism.

Besides agriculture and tourism, in the economic sector of Ajara reconstruction business and food industry are noticeable. The first one is directed towards the improvement of tourism infrastructure, and the second – to satisfy increasing demand of local and out of country demands. Transportation sector plays significant role in developing of economies. And at the same time, along with household industry, contributes to emission of greenhouse gases from Ajara.

In this document, based on the available sources, in the frames of the United Nations Framework Convention to Climate Change, in 2011 it was discussed for first time the emission of greenhouse gasses and absorption characteristics of Ajara territory. Based on this information, certain project proposals were elaborated connected to the mitigation; reduction of the emission of greenhouse gasses and increase of absorption of greenhouse gasses in sub-alpine zone.

Diverse ecosystems and development of economic sectors in Ajara are under threat of natural disasters, which were significantly increased in frequency and severity due to global warming. In coastal zone such are storms and permanent increase in sea level, which results in washing out of coastal area and destroying residential buildings and other infrastructure. For example, in March of 24, 2013, storm with magnitude of 6 destroyed many coast-protecting buildings in Batumi and Kobuleti, washed out beaches, flooded new boulevard, streets and squares of Batumi. Fortunately the severe wind was not followed by high precipitation, which could have resulted in additional destruction as a result of floods and landslides in coastal zone and mountainous areas. Above mentioned natural disasters tend to be repeated every year in different regions of Ajara, which sometimes is followed by avalanches as well. According to the information mentioned above, it is necessary to take in consideration the character of natural disasters during the planning of any sort of project, and importance of preventive measures. Based on those needs, in this document it is widely discussed the importance of elaborate project proposals on adaptation to climate change, which showed a necessity of deep analyses of related materials and statistics as well. Taking in consideration the huge development potential of Ajara, implementing of those projects may be a great start of sustainable development of the region.

- 10 - 1. GHG inventory in Ajara

1.1. Results of inventory

Under the Third National Communication of Georgia to the UNFCCC, the first attempt to generate disaggregated Greenhouse Gas (GHG) inventory has taken place for Ajara Autonomous Republic. Four inventory sectors have been assessed for this territory: energy, industrial processes, Land use, land use change and forestry, (LULUCF) and waste.

In 2011 in total 312.47 thousand tons of direct GHGs in CO2 equivalent were emitted to the atmosphere from this region, however, the LULUCF sector contributed to the removal of 606.70 thousand tons of CO2, resulting in the net removals of 294.23 thousand tons of CO2 equivalent emissions from the whol