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Climate Change Strategy of Ajara

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CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGY OF AJARA In preparation of the present Report large group of experts were involved representing: Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources Protection of Georgia; Ministry of Agriculture of Georgia; Ministry of Energy of Georgia; Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia; Ministry of Labor, Health and Social Affairs of Georgia; Ministry of Regional Development and Infrastructure of Georgia; Ministry of Education and Science of Georgia; Separate academic institutions; Ajara Environment Protection and Natural Resources Administration, Batumi Municipality; Ajara Municipalities; National experts and NGO representatives. A special desert in the preparation of this document is credited to the UNDP Georgia for assisting the Georgian Government in preparation of the Report. The views expressed in this publication are those of the author/s and do not necessarily represent those of the United Nations or UNDP. © UNDP in Georgia 2013 All rights are reserved Published in Georgia ABBREVIATIONS AR. Autonomous Republic ADB Asian Development Bank BAU Business as Usual C Carbon CDM Clean Development Mechanism CENN Caucasus Environmental Non-Governmental Network CH4 Methane CO Carbon oxide CO2 Carbon dioxide CoM Covenant of Mayors CVDs Cardio-vascular diseases EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and Development EEEF European Energy Efficiency Fund ELENA European Local Energy Assistance EU European Union FAO Food and Agriculture Organization GCM Global Climate Model GDP Cross Domestic Product Gg Gigagram (103 tons) GHG Greenhouse gas GPG Good Practice Guideline GIZ German Agency for International Cooperation GW Gigawatt (109 W= 1 million KW) HI Heat Index HPP Hydro power plant IEE Institute of electrical engineers IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change JESSICA Joint European Support for Sustainable Investment in City Areas JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency KfW German Reconstruction Credit Bank LEPL Legal Entity of Public Low LULUCF Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry MW Megawatt (106 W) NMVOCs Non-methane volatile organic compounds REC Regional Environmental Center RH Relative Humidity SEAP Sustainable Energy Action Plan SIDA Swedish International Development Agency TCI Tourism Climate Index TJ Terajoule (1012 Joule) UNDP United Nation Development Programme UNEP United Nations Development Programme UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund USAID United States Agency for International Development WB World Bank WHO World Health Organization - 3 - CONTENT Introduction 1. GHG inventory in Ajara ........................................................................................ 11 1.1. Results of inventory ................................................................................. 11 1.2. Energy sector ............................................................................................ 12 1.3. Industrial processes .................................................................................. 15 1.4. Land use, Land use change and Forestry (LULUCF) .............................. 16 1.5. Waste sector .............................................................................................. 18 2. Climate change in Ajara ........................................................................................ 23 2.1. Description of Ajara Climate .................................................................... 23 2.2. Current changes in climate of Ajara region .............................................. 25 2.3. Forecast of climate change in Ajara region .............................................. 27 3. Climate change vulnerability of Ajara area .......................................................... 33 3.1. Land resources of Ajara Autonomous Republic ....................................... 33 3.2. Natural disasters in Ajara ......................................................................... 47 3.3. Ajara coastal zone ..................................................................................... 55 3.4. Forestry sector .......................................................................................... 60 3.5. Ajara’s protected areas ............................................................................. 66 3.6. Agriculture in Ajara .................................................................................. 71 3.7. Healthcare sector ...................................................................................... 84 3.8.Tourism ...................................................................................................... 94 3.9. Ajara’s water resources ........................................................................... 106 4. Greenhouse gas emissions mitigation policy and measures ............................... 112 4.1. The energy resources and supply ........................................................... 112 4.2. Energy consumption in Ajara ................................................................. 113 4.3. Business As Usual (BAU) GHG emissions scenario (2011-2030) ........ 119 4.4. Evaluation of GHG mitigation potential by measures planned in GHG emission mitigation strategy ........................................................ 123 5. Climate change strategy of Ajara region ............................................................. 128 6. Project proposals ................................................................................................. 165 6.1 Climate change adaptation proposals ..................................................... 165 6.1.1. Project proposal for rehabilitation of areas damaged from land erosion in Kobuleti Municipality ........................................ 165 - 4 - 6.1.2. Creation of stationary network for landslides regime observation and early warning system at the territory of Ajara ...................... 173 6.1.3. Retaining coastal stability in Ajara seashore area ....................... 180 6.1.4. Establishment of monitoring system aiming at prevention of climate change impact on spreading wreck-diseases in Ajara forests ............................................................................... 188 6.1.5. Ways of rehabilitation of degraded sub-alpine forests and increase of CO2 removals........................................................................... 197 6.1.6. Reduction of negative impacts of climate change on stream trout population within the protected areas of Ajara and its neighborhood ............................................................................... 210 6.1.7. Piloting the establishment of farmers’ union in Khala community (Kobuleti Municipality)............................................................... 217 6.1.8. Increasing the tourism potential in Ajara region by effective management of climate-related diseases ..................................... 224 6.2. GHG mitigation proposals .................................................................... 233 6.2.1. Mitigation of GHG emissions from Batumi existing landfill ...... 233 6.2.2. Mitigation of methane emissions during the operation of Ajara new landfill ......................................................................................... 240 6.2.3. Measure to mitigate GHG emissions from the transport sector in Batumi – Electric Taxi ................................................................. 248 6.2.4. Conversion of Batumi public transport to natural gas fueling .... 258 Annexes .................................................................................................................. 266 Annex I. Variation of climate parameters and extreme indices ........................ 267 Annex II. Measures to combat sea coastal zone erosion in Ajara ...................... 269 Annex III. Problems revealed in Agriculture and changes in vegetation periods ...... 271 Annex IV. Vulnerability assessment parameters ................................................. 274 Annex V. Health vulnerability indicators .......................................................... 275 Annex VI. Some recommendations on the Black Sea seashore management ....................................................................................... 280 Annex VII. Methane from existing landfill of Batumi ......................................... 282 Annex VIII. Methane from Ajara new landfill ....................................................... 283 - 5 - FOREWORD In accordance with the requirements of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, activities carried out in the country in regard to the climate change problem are occasionally summarized in the National Communications that are discussed and evaluated by the main governing body of the Convention at the annual meetings of the Parties. Following the national communications submitted by Georgia in 1999 and 2009, the country started working on the preparation of the Third National Communication in 2012, the significant part of which is dedicated to the study of climate change current impact on different sectors of economy and natural eco- systems in one of the unique regions of the country – in Ajara. The uniqueness of Ajara is specified by several factors, among which leading is that Ajara for the time being represents the only region in Georgia that is endowed with subtropical climate and relevant recreation resources possessing the huge potential for tourism development. Natural conditions in Ajara contribute to the development of multiple fields of agricultural sector, due to what Ajara can be considered
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