Working Paper Weather shocks, poverty and crime in 18th-century Savoy CHAMBRU, Cédric Abstract Did weather shocks increase interpersonal conflict in early modern Europe? I address this question by exploiting year-to-year seasonal variations in temperature and detailed crime data I assembled from Savoyard criminal procedures over the period 1749–89. I find that temperature shocks had a positive and significant effect on the level of property crimes, but no significant effect on violent crimes. I further document how seasonal migration may help to increase the coping capacity of local communities in which they were widely used. Migrant labourers brought remittances to supplement communities' resources and also temporarily relieve their communities of the burden of feeding them. I show that temperature shocks were strongly associated with increase in the property crimes rate, but the effect is much lower in provinces with high levels of seasonal migration. I provide historical evidence to show that the inflow of remittances may drive this relationship. Reference CHAMBRU, Cédric. Weather shocks, poverty and crime in 18th-century Savoy. Geneva : Paul Bairoch Institute of Economic History, 2019, 56 p. Available at: http://archive-ouverte.unige.ch/unige:120722 Disclaimer: layout of this document may differ from the published version. 1 / 1 FACULTÉ DES SCIENCES DE LA SOCIÉTÉ Paul Bairoch Institute of Economic History Economic History Working Papers | No. 1/2019 Weather Shocks, Poverty and Crime in 18th-Century Savoy Cédric Chambru Paul Bairoch Institute of Economic History, University of Geneva, UniMail, bd du Pont-d'Arve 40, CH- 1211 Genève 4. T: +41 22 379 81 92. Fax: +41 22 379 81 93 Weather Shocks, Poverty and Crime in 18th-Century Savoy ∗ CÉDRIC CHAMBRU July 14, 2019 Abstract Did weather shocks increase interpersonal conflict in early modern Europe? I address this question by exploiting year-to-year seasonal variations in temperature and detailed crime data I assembled from Savoyard criminal procedures over the period 1749–89. I find that temperature shocks had a positive and significant effect on the level of property crimes, but no significant effect on violent crimes. I further document how seasonal migration may help to increase the coping capacity of local communities in which they were widely used. Migrant labourers brought remittances to supplement communities’ resources and also temporarily relieve their communities of the burden of feeding them. I show that temperature shocks were strongly associated with increase in the property crimes rate, but the effect is much lower in provinces with high levels of seasonal migration. I provide historical evidence to show that the inflow of remittances may drive this relationship. Keywords: Weather shocks; Migration; Crime; Grain Prices; Savoy; 18th century. JEL: J61, N33, N53, Q10. ∗Department of Economics, University of Zurich, Zürichbergstrasse 14, CH-8032 Zürich, [email protected]. I thank my advisors Mathieu Couttenier and Michael Huberman for their continued guidance and support. I am grateful to Guido Alfani, Maleke Fourati, Roberto Galbiati, Luigi Lorenzetti, Jérémy Luchetti, Kostadis Papaioannou, and Mathias Thoenig, as well as participants of the AGRICLIOMETRICS III, EHES 2017 meetings, and seminar audiences at the University of Geneva, and University of Montreal for helpful comments and suggestions. Financial support was provided by the University of Geneva, and the Swiss National Science Foundation (grant number: P1GEP1_161588). 1 1 Introduction The effect of economic shocks on interpersonal and intergroup conflicts has been the subject of a growing literature over the last decade (Burke, Hsiang and Miguel, 2015). A large body of this literature provides evidence that negative transitory income shocks are associated with higher risk of conflicts in both historical and contemporary settings (Dell, Jones and Olken, 2014). However, there is less evidence on the effect of adaptive strategies on the mitigation of these shocks. Adaptive strategies are defined as those methods used to reduce communities’ vulnerability to recurrent environmental shocks that challenge their living standards. Adaptation to global warming and increased weather variability will require policy interventions to be informed by resilience-relevant scientific evidence to foster effectively the resilience of local communities around the world. This paper sheds light on the effect of economic conditions on property and violent crimes by exploiting within-province variations in weather-induced negative income shocks in Savoy from 1749 to 1789.1 In particular, I use the spatial heterogeneity in the migration pattern between lowland and upland communities– due to the ecological variability of the land across the Duchy– to identify how seasonal migration could constitute an efficient buffer against weather-induced income shocks.2 Migrant labour may, indeed, bring in remittances to supplement communities’ resources as well as temporarily relieve impoverished households of the burden of feeding them. I assemble a new data set on the occurrence of property crimes and violent crimes 1749–89 at the provincial level. I combine these data with reconstructed seasonal temperature data, population census data, as well as data on annual wheat prices in two different provinces, grape harvest dates and annual wine prices.3 I document how weather shocks could translate into transitory negative income shocks for local communities. I show that warmer temperatures were associated with earlier grape harvest date (GHD) and lower wine prices. This is consistent with previous findings in the literature (Daux et al., 2012; Meier et al., 2007), and can be explained by the fact that temperatures and growing season length are a critical aspect for the cultivation of winegrapes because of their major impact on 1 During the 17th century and the first half of the 18th century, Savoy has been occupied on many occasions by foreign troops. In 1749, a seven-year rule of the Holy Roman Empire ended, and for the next 40 years, Savoy was not involved in any military conflict. Political and judicial institutions remained very stable during this period. 2 In the remaining of the paper, I use Savoy to refer to the duchy of Savoy, whereas I use Savoie to name the province constituting part of the duchy. Chambéry was the capital city of both the duchy of Savoy and the province of Savoie. See Section 2.1. 3 I derive temperature series from paleoclimatic reconstructions, and check them against various historical records. Paleoclimatology is the study of past climates. Using a combination of different types of proxy records, including ice cores, tree rings, and sediment cores, paleoclimatic studies are able to infer local fluctuations in temperature and precipitation for a given year (Bradley, 2015). 2 grape ripening and fruit quality: warmer temperatures fasten vegetative growth and increase the ripening potential. Warmer temperature was also associated with higher wheat prices.4 Bread made up the bulk of the Savoyard consumption basket in which vegetables, fruits, and livestock products marginally supplemented the diet (Nicolas, 1979). This means that variations in grain prices had a larger impact on household real income than variations in wine prices. In the face of an economic downturn, joblessness, and/or a rise in food prices, the inability to secure financial resources may lead individuals to turn to illegal income-generating activities, because these individuals who lack economic resources have greater incentives to commit crime (Becker, 1968). More specifically, Becker suggests that individuals weigh the benefits and costs of committing a crime, so that any changes in the relative gains and the level of crime deterrence might have an impact on the incidence of crime. I use panel estimates with province and time fixed effects to compare crime rates in provinces with high seasonal migration rates with provinces with low seasonal migration rates. I find that transitory negative income shocks associated with weather shocks significantly increased the occurrence of property crimes, and significantly decreased the occurrence of violent crimes. A one standard deviation increase in temperature increased property crime rate by 6.4 per cent, and decreased violent crime rate by 6.2 per cent. I provide additional evidence that the increase in property crimes were partially driven by the need to survive. An increase in temperature affects property crimes involving the theft of edible product. A fall in the opportunity cost of illegal activities due to shrinking agricultural income could increase the pay-off of committing thefts and, in turn, increase the probability of committing property crimes. On the contrary, the drop in real income caused by temperature shocks may explain the negative relationship between warmer temperature and violent crime rates. Despite lower wine prices, alcohol consumption, a major criminogenic trigger, is likely to have decreased as households’ income decreased. In 1734, Pierre Lavin, an inhabitant of the province of Chablais, migrated and was later arrested for begging by the French Maréchaussée in Lyon. During his prosecution, he declared that “because all harvest failed last year in his homeland, he had no choice but to leave to beg for food here and there”.5 Migration is an efficient coping mechanism if one has the ability to secure a job and stable earnings. Using a key institutional change put in place by new immigration regulations