Post Gu Analysis

Technical Series Report No V. 15 October 15, 2008

2008 Post Gu Analysis

Food Security Analysis Unit - Somalia Box 1230 Village Market Nairobi, Kenya Ph: 254-20-3745734 Fax: 254-20-3740598 Web site: www.fsausomali.org Email: [email protected]

Technical and Funding Agencies Managerial Support

European Commission FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 ii Issued October 15, 2008 Acknowledgement

FSAU would like to thank the fifty five partner agencies for their participation and support in this seasonal assessment and analysis (see Appendix 5.9). This crucial assessment would not have been possible without the technical participation and timely logistical support provided by our partners. The assessment and analysis would not have been possible without the dedication and expertise of the FSAU’s twenty seven field based analysts who continue to work under very difficult conditions.

Abdulkadir M. Abikar Abdulkadir Abikar, began working with FSAU in 1993, and for the 15 years with the project he has shown a high degree of professionalism and dedication. Having an agricultural background and having spent much of his earlier career in Shabelle and Juba regions with the Ministry of Agriculture, this gave him valuable experience for his duty area in the Shabelles. Abikar was a professor to a number of the FSAU Field Analysts and he continues to provide guidance and knowledge on many aspects of agriculture. Often working in difﬁcult situations and conditions, Abikar has none-the-less been dependable and willing to take on many new challenges. We would like to thank him for all his contributions to FSAU and wish him well in his retirement. Mahadsanid! From the FSAU Team

Technical Partners participating in the Post Gu ’08 Assessment

World Vision, Adventist Development and Relief Agency (ADRA), Concern, Cooperazione Internazionale (COOPI), Green Hope, Solidarites, ASEP, AMA, NCA, Southern Agriculture and Development Organization (SADO), CARE, CEDA, IDF, Danish Refugee Council (DRC), Save the Children Fund United Kindom (SCF UK), ICDA, KISIMA, Horn Relief, Ari Land Livelihood Support Action (ALLSA), Islamic Court Union (ICU), SOSES, Juba Relief and De- velopment Organization (JRDO), JRADA, Juba Charity Centre (JCC), PCPDO, SAIF, Somali Women Solidarity Organization (SWSO), Jubashine, Youth Against AIDS and Poverty (YAAB), Islamic Relief, Agricultural Development Organization (ADO), HAVAYOCO, CANDLELIGHT, SVO, Swedish African Welfare Alliance (SAWA), Bay Local Authority, Huddur Local Authority, Gedo Local Authority, Middle and Lower Juba Local Authority, Middle Shabelle Local Authority, Puntland Local Authority, HADMA Puntland, MoLEA Puntland, PSAWEN Puntland, MORD Puntland, MoH Puntland, Ministry of Livestock Somaliland, Ministry of Agriculture Somaliland, Ministry of Water & Minerals Somaliland, Ministry of Health & Labour Somaliland, Ministry of Pastoral Development & Environment Somaliland, NERAD Somaliland

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 iii Issued October 15, 2008 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 1.1 KEY FINDINGS 1 1.2 IMPLICATIONS FOR RESPONSE 2 1.3 SECTOR HIGHLIGHTS 7 1.4 INTEGRATED FOOD SECURITY ANALYSIS HIGHLIGHTS 8

2. ANALYTICAL PROCESSES AND METHODS 11

3. SECTOR REPORTS 14 3.1 CLIMATE AND RAINFALL OUTCOME 14 3.2 CIVIL INSECURITY 17 3.3 GU ‘08 CEREAL CROP PRODUCTION 19 3.4 LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION AND EXPORT 24 3.5 MARKET ANALYSIS AND TRENDS 29 3.6 NUTRITION OVERVIEW 30

4. INTEGRATED FOOD SECURITY ANALYSIS 32

4.1 SOMALIA’S URBAN FOOD SECURITY CRISIS 32 4.2 SOMALIA’S RURAL FOOD SECURITY CRISIS 38 4.2.1 Gedo Region 39 4.2.2 Lower and Middle Juba 43 4.2.3 Bay and Bakool 46 4.2.4 Lower and Middle Shabelle 52 4.2.5 Hiran Region 57 4.2.6 Central Regions 62 4.2.7 Northeast Region 67 4.2.8 Northwest Region 71

5. APPENDICES 78 5.1 Background and Recent Developments in the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification 78 5.1.2 Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Reference Table 79 5.2 Time-Series of the Integrated Phase Classifications (IPC) Maps For Somalia 2005 – 2008 81 5.3 Progression of the Humanitarian Situation by Region from Deyr ‘07/8 to Gu ’08 83 5.3.1 Progression of Humanitarian Situation, Gedo Region from Deyr 07/08 to Gu 2008 83 5.3.2 Progression of Humanitarian Situation, L. and M. Juba Regions from Deyr ’07/08 to Gu ’08 84 5.3.3 Progression of Humanitarian Situation, Bay and Bakool Regions from Deyr ’07/08 to Gu ’08 85 5.3.4 Progression of Humanitarian Situation, Shabelle Regions from Deyr ’07/08 to Gu ’08 86 5.3.5 Progression of the Humanitarian Situation for Hiran from Deyr ’07/08 to Gu ’08 87 5.3.6 Progression of the Humanitarian Situation for Central from Deyr ’07/08 to Gu ’08 88 5.3.7 Progression of Humanitarian Situation for NE and NW Regions From Deyr ’07/08 to Gu ’08 89 5.4 Post Gu ’08 Estimated Population in HE and AFLC For the Period July to Dec. 2008 92 5.4.1 Somalia Combined Rural, Urban and IDP Population Numbers, July - Dec. 2008 92 5.4.2 Estimated Rural Population in He and AFLC by District July to Dec., 2008 93 5.4.3 Estimated Urban Population in He and AFLC by District July to Dec., 2008 95 5.4.4 Estimated Rural Population in He and AFLC by Livelihood Zones, July to Dec., 2008 97 5.5 Comparison of Risk and Mitigating Factors between 1991-92 and 2007-08 99 5.6 Urban Indicator Matrix 100 5.7 Livestock Herd Dynamics by Region and Livelihood Zone 102 5.7.1 Livestock Herd Dynamics Gedo Region 102 5.7.2 Livestock Herd Dynamics Central and Bakool Region 102 5.7.3 Livestock Herd Dynamics Central, Hiran and Juba Regions 103 5.7.4 Livestock Herd Dynamics Juba and Juba Region 103 5.7.5 Livestock Herd Dynamics Northwest and Northeast Region 103 5.8 Summary of Key Nutrition Findings 104 5.8.1 Summary of Key Nutrition Findings in Central Regions 104 5.8.2 Summary of Key Nutrition Findings in Hiran Region 104 5.8.3 Summary of Key Nutrition Findings in M & L Shabelle Regions 105 5.8.4 Summary of Key Nutrition Findings in Gedo Region 105 5.8.5 Summary of Key Nutrition Findings in Middle and Lower Juba Regions 106 5.8.6 A Summary of Key Nutrition Findings in Bakool Region 106 5.8.7 Summary of Results Hawd, Sool Plateau and Nugal Valley (Pastoral) Livelihood Zones 107 5.8.8 Summary of Results Guban and Golis (Pastoral) Livelihood Zones 107 5.8.9 Summary of Results of Northwest Agro-Pastoral Lhzs 108 5.8.10 Summary of Results of Hargeisa, Berbera and Burao IDPs 108

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 iv Issued October 15, 2008 5.8.11 Summary of Key Nutrition Findings in Northeast Regions 109 5.8.12 Summary of Results in Northeast (Golis, Gagab, Nugal Valley, Coastal Deeh, Sool Plateau and Kakaar Livelihood Zones) 110 5.8.13 Summary of Nutrition Assessments (April – July 2008) Findings 111 5.9 List of Partners That Participated in the FSAU Post Gu ’08 Assessment 112 5.10 Post Gu ’08 Assessment Process, Analytical tools and Timeline 113 5.10.1 FSAU Post Gu ’08 Assessment Overall Timeline 113 5.10.2 FSAU Regional Presentations on the Post Gu ’08 Results 113 5.11 Assessment Instruments and Tools 113 5.11.1 Food Security Livelihoods and Nutrition Assessment Pastoral Questionnaire 114 5.11.2 Food Security, Livelihood and Nutrition Assessment: Crop Production Survey 117 5.11.3 Food Security, Livelihood and Nutrition Assessment: Gu ‘08 Crop Production Survey Summary by District 120 5.11.4 Food Security, Livelihood and Nutrition Assessment: Cereal Flow Survey 123 5.11.5 FSAU Gu ’08 Assessment: Conﬂict Monitoring Form 126 5.11.6 Food Security, Livelihood and Nutrition Assessment: Urban Survey Questionnaire 128 5.11.7 FSAU Post Gu ’08 Nutrition Rapid Assessment Questionnaire 130 5.11.8 FSAU Post Gu ’08 Framework For Estimating the Nutrition Situation 136 5.11.9 Evidence Based Analysis Template: Post Gu ’08 Assessment 139

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Somalia Distribution of Rural Population in Crisis 3 Table 2: Somalia Distribution of Urban Population in Crisis 4 Table 3: Somalia Combined Rural, Urban and IDP Population Numbers, July - Dec. 2008 4 Table 4: Integrated Food Security Phase Classiﬁcation Reference Table (FAO/FSAU May. 2008) 6 Table 5: Overview of 2008 Post Gu Assessment Analytical Process and Timeline 11 Table 6: Regional IDP Numbers and Percentage 18 Table 7: Gu ‘08 Cereal Production Estimates in Southern Somalia 19 Table 8: Northwest Gu/Karan ‘08 Cereal Crop Production Estimates 21 Table 9: Annual Cereal Balance Sheet – June 2008 to May 2009 23 Table 10: Water, Pasture and Livestock Body Conditions by Region 24 Table 11: Trends in Livestock, Production and Projected Herd Sizes 25 Table 12: Livestock Exported From Berbera Port (Jan. - July ‘08) 28 Table 13: Livestock Exported from Bossaso Port (Jan. - July ‘08) 28 Table 14: Exportation of Chilled Meat from Burao, Beletweyne, Mogadishu and Galkayo Abattoir (Jan. –July ‘08) 28 Table 15: Percent Price increase Jan to July ‘08 29 Table 16: Minimum Basket 32 Table 17: Income Analysis 34 Table 18: Current Situation Compared to 1991-92 Famine - No Early Warning of Famine during period of July-Dec. ’08 37 Table 19: Gedo Region, Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) 39 Table 20: Gedo Region, Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) 40 Table 21: Juba Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) 43 Table 22: Juba Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) 44 Table 23: Bay and Bakool, Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC). 46 Table 24: Bay and Bakool, Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC). 47 Table 25: A Summary of Key Nutrition Findings in Bakool Region 51 Table 26: Shabelle Region, Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC). 52 Table 27: Shabelle Region, Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC). 53 Table 28: Hiran Region, Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC). 57 Table 29: Hiran Region, Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC). 58 Table 30: Central Region, Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC). 62

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 v Issued October 15, 2008 Table 31: Central Region, Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC). 63 Table 32: Northeast, Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC). 67 Table 33: Northeast Region, Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC). 68 Table 34: Northwest, Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC). 71 Table 35: Northwest Region, Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC). 72

LIST OF MAPS

Map 1: Somalia Integrated Phase Classification, Rural, Urban and IDP Populations, Projections July - December ‘08 5 Map 2: Somalia - Gu ’08 Assessment Data Point Locations 12 Map 3: Cumulative Rainfall (Mm) Apr 1-June 30, 2008 14 Map 4: Percent of Normal Rainfall (April 1-June 30, 2008) 14 Map 5: NDVI Anomaly for July ‘08 14 Map 6: Livelihood Zones Used in Time Series Analysis 16 Map 7: Somalia insecurity Outcomes, July - August ‘08 17 Map 8: Livestock Migration Trends July - Dec ‘08 24 Map 9: Somalia Estimated Nutrition Situation January 2008 31 Map 10: Somalia Estimated Nutrition Situation August 2008 31 Map 11 A: Somalia integrated Phase Classification Map, Urban and IDP Populations, Projections July - Dec. ‘08 35 Map 11 B: Somalia Integrated Phase Classification Map, Rural Populations, Projections July - Dec. ‘08 38 Map 12: Gedo Region Livelihood Systems 39 Map 13: Food Security Phase Classification - Gedo. 39 Map 14: Juba Regions Livelihood Systems 43 Map 15: Food Security Phase Classification - Juba. 43 Map 16: Sorghum Belt Livelihood Systems 46 Map 17: Food Security Phase Classification Bay and Bakool Regions 46 Map 18: Shabelle and Cowpea Belt Livelihood Systems 52 Map 19: Food Security Phase Classification - Shabelle Region 52 Map 20: Hiran Livelihood Systems 57 Map 21: Food Security Phase Classification - Hiran 57 Map 22: Central Region Livelihood Systems 62 Map 23: Food Security Phase Classification Central Region 62 Map 24: Northeast Region: Livelihood Systems 67 Map 25: Food Security Phase Classification - Northeast 67 Map 26: Northwest Region: Livelihood Systems 71 Map 27: Food Security Phase Classification - Northwest 71 Map 28: Livelihood Zones of Somalia 140

LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: NDVI for Bay, Bakool, Shabelle, Togdheer, Sanaag, Nugal, Juba, Gedo and Central. 15 Figure 2: Historic NDVI % Deviation from Long Term Average 16 Figure 3: Gu Cereal Production Trends (1995 - 2008) in Southern Somalia 19 Figure 4: Regional Contribution of Gu ‘08 Cereal Production in Southern Somalia 19 Figure 5: Regional Contribution of Gu ‘08 Sorghum Production 20 Figure 6: Regional Contribution of Gu ‘08 Maize Production 20 Figure 7: Regional Contribution of Gu ‘08 Cereal Production Northwest Region 20 Figure 8: Regional Trends in Cereal Prices (SoSh) 21 Figure 9: Regional Average Monthly Terms of Trade: Cereal to Labour 22 Figure 10: Commercial Cereal Import Trends (2004-2008) 22 Figure 11: Regional Trend in Local Quality Goat Prices 26 Figure 12: Regional Trend Local Quality Cattle Prices (Sosh/Slsh) 26 Figure 13: Regional Trend in Terms of Trade: Cereal to Goat 26 Figure 14: Berbera & Bossaso Livestock Exports (Heads) and Export Quality Goat Prices (US$) 27 Figure 15: Total Annual Livestock Exports Compared to 5-Year Average 27 Figure 16: Trends in Exchange Rates - SOSH and SLSH to USD 29 Figure 17: Shabelle Valley Trend in Imported Commodity Prices Compared to Exchange Rate 29 Figure 18: Rates of Global Acute and Severe Acute Malnutrition (WHZ) From Surveys Conducted in 2008 31 Figure 19: Total Cost of Minimum Expenditure Basket for Rural Towns (March ‘07, March ‘08 and June ‘08) 33

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 vi Issued October 15, 2008 Figure 20: Total Cost of Minimum Expenditure Basket for Urban Towns (March ‘07, March ‘08 and June ‘08) 33 Figure 21: Gu Cereal Production in Gedo Region, 1995 – 2007 41 Figure 22 Gedo, Bardera, Trends Sorghum Prices (Sosh) 41 Figure 23: Bardera, Terms of Trade Goat to Cereal 41 Figure 24: Bardera, Terms of Trade Labour to Cereal 42 Figure 25: Trends in Levels of Acute Malnutrition 1995-2008 Gedo Region (WHZ<-2 or Oedema) 42 Figure 26: Gu Maize Production in Lower Juba Region (1997-2008) 44 Figure 27: Gu Maize Production in Middle Juba Region (1997-2008) 44 Figure 28: Trends in Levels of Acute Malnutrition 2001-2008 in Juba Region (WHZ<-2 or Oedema) 45 Figure 29: Trends in Gu Cereal Production in Bakool (1995-2008) 48 Figure 30: Trends in Gu Cereal Production in Bay (1995-2008) 48 Figure 31: Bay, Trends in Sorghum Prices 49 Figure 32: Bakool, Trends in Sorghum Prices 49 Figure 33 Bakool, Terms of Trade Local Cereal to Cereal 49 Figure 34 Bakool, Terms of Trade Local Goat to Labour 50 Figure 35: Trends in Levels of Acute Malnutrition 2001-2008 in Bakool Region (WHZ<-2 or Oedema) 50 Figure 36: Trends in Levels of Acute Malnutrition 2001-2008 in Bay Region (WHZ<-2 or Oedema) 50 Figure 37: Bay Region, Agropastoral HIS Data, 2007-2008 50 Figure 38: Gu Cereal Production Lower Shabelle Region (1995 - 2008) 54 Figure 39: Shabelle Region, Trends in Maize Prices (Sosh) 55 Figure 40: Shabelle Region, Trends in Sorghum Prices (Sosh) 55 Figure 41: Shabelle Region, Terms of Trade , Cereal to Labour 56 Figure 42: Trends in Levels of Acute Malnutrition 2001-2008 in Shabelle Region (WHZ<-2 Or Oedema) 56 Figure 43: Hiran Region, Sorghum Trends in Prices (Sosh) 58 Figure 44: Trends in Levels of Acute Malnutrition 2000-2008 in Hiran Region (WHZ<-2 or Oedema) 61 Figure 45: Central Region, Trends in Rice Prices (Sosh) 63 Figure 46: Central Region Terms of Trade Goat and Labour to Cereal 65 Figure 47: Trends in Levels of Acute Malnutrition (WHZ<-2 or Oedema) in Central Regions (2001-2008) 66 Figure 48: Trends in Levels of Acute Malnutrition 2001-2008 IDPs in Northeast Region (WHZ<-2 Or Oedema) 70 Figure 49: Trends in Levels of Acute Malnutrition 2001-2008 in Northeast Region (WHZ<-2 or Oedema) 70 Figure 50: Trends in Levels of Acute Malnutrition 2002-2006 in Northwest Region (WHZ<-2 Or Oedema) 73

SPECIAL ARTICLES

Comparison of Current Food Security and Nutrition Situation to ‘91-92 Somalia Famine 36 Women in Crisis: The Effects of Mass Livestock Out-Migration in Gu ’08 76

LIST OF ACRONYMS

ARI Acute Respiratory Infection MT Metric Tonne CPP Caprine Pleura Pneumonia MUAC Mid Upper Arm Circumference CMR Crude Mortality Rate NDVI Normalized Difference Vegetation FAO Food and Agriculture Organization Index FEWS/NET Famine Early Warning Systems Network PWA Post War Average FSAU Food Security Analysis Unit SAM Severe Acute Malnutrition GAM Global Acute Malnutrition SlSh Somaliland Shilling HA Hectare SoSh Somali Shilling HRG Humanitarian Response Group TFC Thearupetic Feeding Centre IDP Internally Displaced Persons U5 Under Five IDS Institute for Development Studies WFH Weight for Height Lt Litre HE Humanitarian Emergency LZ Livelihood Zone AFLC Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis MCH Maternal and Child Health Centre

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 vii Issued October 15, 2008 FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 viii Issued October 15, 2008 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This FSAU Technical Series provides a full analysis of the post Gu ‘08 Assessment and Analysis, which are the results of ﬁeldwork (July 4 - 22), regional and national analysis workshops (July 23 - Aug. 13) and a Technical Veriﬁcation and Partner Vetting Meetings (Nutrition Aug. 13, and Food Security Aug. 20). FEWSNET Somalia along with 55 partners, including regional authorities, UN, international agencies, and local and international NGOs participated and supported in this post Gu assessment and analysis process.

FSAU presented these results in Nairobi at a Somalia Support Secretariat Special Meeting on August 22 and issued a press release on August 26. Somalia regional presentations were given in Garowe (August 24 and 28), Hargeisa (September 1), Baidoa (September 3), and Dolow (September 6). The press release and presentation, in addition to the Phase Classiﬁcation Map, estimated population numbers by region, district, and livelihood zone, are available on the FSAU Website.

1.1 KEY FINDINGS The findings of the FSAU, FEWSNET and partners post Gu ‘08 seasonal assessment confirm earlier reports (April ‘08 and June ‘08) that the humanitarian crisis is continuing to deteriorate at an accelerated rate. The current assessment estimates that 3.25 million people, representing 43% of the total population of Somalia, will need humanitarian assistance at least until the end of the year, which is a 77% increase since January 2008. The dramatic increase in the number of people in need of assistance is attributed to a growing urban food security crisis, affecting more than 705,000 urban poor, and a deepening rural crisis reflected by a 64% increase in the rural population in crisis, from 850,000 earlier this year to more than 1,395,000 currently. In addition, the number of people displaced by conflict is continuing to increase and is now estimated at 870,000 (Table 1, 2 and 3, Map 1, 11 and 28).

The unfolding humanitarian disaster is widespread and the level of human suffering and deprivation is shocking. executive summary One in six children under the age of ﬁve is acutely malnourished, and the number is continuing to increase. Rates of malnutrition in most of southern and central Somalia are above emergency threshold levels of 15% and in many areas are now greater than 20% and increasing. The number of severely malnourished children is continuing to increase in many urban towns and among internally displaced populations (IDPs). In the north, where malnutrition rates are normally low and stable, the nutrition situation is also now deteriorating.

One of the main driving factors of the crisis is the escalating civil insecurity, which is not only leading to human suffering in terms of killings, violence, human rights abuses, and population displacement, but is creating an economic crisis that is now having a wider and more devastating impact on the broader population and humanitarian situation. The impact of the worsening economic crisis, characterized by currency devaluation, disrupted trade and market activities, and hyperinﬂation of basic food and nonfood items, is further compounded by the overall poor

performance of the Gu rains, which has resulted in below normal local cereal production and a deepening drought and water crisis in pastoral areas. Although Gu cereal production in Bay and parts of the Shabelle regions is expected to help mitigate food access constraints for rural communities in these areas, the overall impact on food prices will be insigniﬁcant. Food prices are expected to remain high, and therefore food access for market dependent households, including urban, rural poor, and IDP populations will become increasingly difﬁcult through December this year.

The four key defining elements of the current crisis are: • Deepening Drought and Humanitarian Emergency in Central, Hiran and Bakool Regions: The number of rural people in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) continues to increase in these drought stricken areas, and is now estimated at 605,000 people. This deterioration is due to another rain failure, now the fourth consecutive season, combined with hyperinflation of basic food and nonfood items, including water. This is confirmed by recent nutrition reports that indicate a doubling in the caseload of severely malnourished children in ACF feeding centres in Galgadud, a Critical and still deteriorating nutrition situation in the central regions and a deterioration from a Critical to Very Critical nutrition situation in the Bakool region (Map 9).

• The drought is the worst the region has experienced in decades and is characterized by severe water and pasture shortages, large abnormal migrations of people and livestock to areas with permanent water sources, poor livestock body conditions, productivity and value, increased deaths of pack animals and small ruminants, sales of breeding animals; high and over-extended debt levels, and overall decreased food access. The next rains are not expected before mid-October and food prices are continuing to increase therefore, the situation will continue to deteriorate, and humanitarian and livelihood support interventions are critical.

• Growing Urban Food Security Crisis: Somalia is facing a new emerging urban food security crisis due to sustained hyperinﬂation of food and non food prices. Food prices, both local and imported, are at record levels, having increased up to 340% within the last six months and 700% within the last year. Prices are still increasing and this trend is likely to continue. More and more urban households are falling into Acute Food

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 1 Issued October 15, 2008 and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) and Humanitarian Emergency (HE), as they cannot cope with the sustained increases in food prices, which are signiﬁcantly eroding their purchasing power. Currently, it is estimated that more than 705,000 urban people are either in AFLC (565,000) or HE(140,000), a 22% increase compared to estimates in April ’08. Most or 88% of these are poor urban households, with the largest concentration of urban population in crisis in the south (53%), followed by the northwest (20%), northeast (18%) and central regions (9%). The urban poor classiﬁed in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) are largely concentrated in the main urban centres of Afgoi, Mogadishu, Dhusamareb, Las Anod, Bossaso, Erigavo, and Burao (Table 3). Many of the urban poor are now severely indebted and are adopting extreme coping strategies, including skipping meals, begging, selling of assets, and migrating to camps for support (‘keenan’).

• Concentration of People in Crisis in the Shabelle Regions: The Shabelle regions (Lower and Middle Shabelle) remain the worst affected in the current humanitarian crisis. The total number of people in crisis, including rural, urban, and IDPs in the Shabelle regions including Mogadishu, is estimated at 1.08 million people, which represents a 62% increase from January ‘08. The rural population in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) and Hu- manitarian Emergency (HE) is estimated at 475,000, while the urban is estimated at 110,000. In addition, these two regions are also hosting the largest concentration of new IDPs from Mogadishu, totaling more than 495,000 people. The Shabelle regions also have the highest caseload of acutely and severely malnourished children in Somalia, estimated at 34% and 38%, respectively. The deterioration in the situation is due to the combined impact of delayed and poor Gu ‘08 rains, another season of below average crop production, exhausted rangeland conditions, persistent hyperinflation of food and nonfood commodity prices, reduced purchasing power, disrupted market and trade activities, and high levels of population influx and displacement due to escalating conflict.

• Emerging Pastoral Livelihood Crisis in the North: There is an emerging Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) in the north as pastoralists struggle to cope with another season of below normal rainfall, deteriorated water and pasture conditions and soaring water and food prices. To cope, pastoralists are selling more animals, splitting families and migrating with their livestock to areas where water and pasture is available. As a result, an estimated 125,000 pastoralists are in AFLC in the Hawd, Sool Plateau, Kakaar-Dharor, and Nugaal Valley livelihood zones. Depending on the outcome of the Deyr rains (Oct. - Nov. ‘08) and the rate of food and water prices increases in the coming months, there is a moderate risk that some of these households may fall into HE before the end of the year.

1.2 IMPLICATIONS FOR RESPONSE

1. Actions to increase humanitarian space to ensure that the growing number of people in need receive assistance. executive summary 2. Rural Populations in Crisis in the South-Central In Humanitarian Emergency (HE): Scale-up of integrated emergency humanitarian assistance to save lives, especially in drought-affected areas (central, Hiran and Bakool regions), as well as in the Lower and Middle Shabelle regions, where the largest concentration of people in need of assistance is located. Of the total rural population in HE (640,000), 85% are in three areas of Lower and Middle Shabelle (250,000), Central (170,000), and Hiran (115,000), of which most are agro-pastoralists (55%) and pastoralists (31%) (Table 2). HE response strategies include: • Balanced food aid rations; safe/clean water and protection of water sources; health and hygiene promotion; establishment of additional selective feeding centres and shelters for IDPs; immunization campaigns; and deployment of mobile clinics. • Livelihood protection and support is also critical for these households to restore their ability to cope and recover (see opportunities for livelihood support below).

In Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC): Scale-up integrated emergency livelihood support to agro- pastoralists and pastoralists in the south and central regions to protect and prevent the total loss of livelihood assets, particularly in the worst drought-affected regions of Central, Bakool and Hiran, these areas are also experiencing the most severe livelihood crisis (240,000 or 32% of rural population in crisis). Other livelihood crisis areas of agro-pastoralists and agriculturalists are in the Shabelles (225,000), Gedo (80,000), Juba (60,000), and Bay (15,000). AFLC response strategies include: • Pastoralist and Agro-pastoralist Livelihoods: Support to improve livestock water supply and to reduce water prices, including rehabilitation of water points; maintenance and repair of boreholes; allocation of back-up generators for boreholes; fuel subsidies, and water trucking. Other livelihood support measures include livestock health interventions, debt relief and the purchase of weak animals at fair prices, with redistribution of meat to the poorest households.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 2 Issued October 15, 2008 • Agro-pastoralists and Riverine Livelihoods (Hiran/Lower & Middle Shabelle/Gedo/Juba): Increase access to crop production inputs in preparation for Deyr ‘08/09 seasonal planting (input subsidies for seeds, tools, traction, and fuel pump irrigation). Other livelihood support includes micro-ﬁnance; improved storage facilities; alternative non-agricultural income-generating activities; cash aid (cash for work); food aid interventions (food for work, food for assets, school feeding); support to small scale irrigation schemes; and repair of river embankments, culverts and canals.

Table 1: Somalia Distribution of Rural Population in Crisis Estimated Population of Acute Food and Live- Humanitarian Total in AFLC % of Total in Livelihood system Affected Livelihood Zones lihood Crisis (AFLC) Emergency (HE) & HE AFLC & HE Agro-Pastoral 1,889,027 320,000 350,000 670,000 48 Fishing 10,689 0 0 0 0 Pastoral 2,340,538 330,000 200,000 530,000 38 Riverine 366,833 105,000 90,000 195,000 14 Grand Total 4,607,086 755,000 640,000 1,395,000 100

Acute Food and UNDP 2005 Total UNDP 2005 Rural Humanitarian Total in AFLC % of Total in Zone Livelihood Crisis Population Population Emergency (HE) & HE AFLC & HE (AFLC) Central 680,156 526,774 110,000 170,000 280,000 20 North East 1,213,324 488,510 10,000 0 10,000 1 South 4,480,780 2,792,965 510,000 470,000 980,000 70 North West 1,128,394 798,837 125,000 0 125,000 9 Grand Total 7,502,654 4,607,086 755,000 640,000 1,395,000 100 executive summary • All Livelihoods: Parallel interventions to rehabilitate water sources for human consumption; health and hygiene education; immunization campaigns; school feeding; waivers for school fees; the establishment of selective feeding centres, where acute malnutrition rates are high; and support for local health services and mobile clinics.

3. Rural Populations in Crisis in the North In Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC): Livelihood support interventions for pastoralists in newly developing AFLC areas, including the Hawd of Togdheer and Hargeisa, Nugal Valley and Sool Plateau. Of the total rural population in AFLC crisis, 135,000 or 18% are in northeast and northwest, consisting mostly of pastoralists and some agro-pastoralists. Response opportunities include: • Livelihood support interventions needed include debt relief; access to credit and credit support services; protection of productive assets including livestock (water, feed, health) and rangelands (control degradation, charcoal burning); cash/food for work (focused on building assets and infrastructure); veterinary interven-

tions; and the conservation and preservation of feed. • Increase value-adding processes (carcass meat, skins); and input vouchers (supporting livestock, seeds, tools, veterinary drugs, fertilizers) • Improve rural infrastructure (roads and markets) for livestock and other livelihood assets (frankincense, gums); and targeted social safety nets (cash transfer, voucher, school meals) • Parallel interventions to rehabilitate water sources for human consumption; distribution of ORS; health and hygiene education; immunization campaigns; establishment of selective feeding centres, where acute malnutrition rates are high; and support to local health services/mobile clinics are also needed to alleviate critical levels of acute malnutrition.

4. Urban Populations in Crisis In Humanitarian Emergency (HE): Initiate integrated emergency humanitarian assistance for the urban poor (140,000) located in main urban centres of Burao, Erigavo, Las Anood, Bossasso, Dhusamareb, Belet weyne, Afgoi and Mogadishu. Opportunities for response include: • Balanced food aid rations, support to local health centres, immunization campaigns, establishment of selective feeding centres and local hospitals in key crisis areas, public health campaigns on health and hygiene, safe clean water and protection of water sources with distribution of water containers where appropriate. • Livelihood protection and support is also critical for these urban households to help restore their ability to cope and recover (see opportunities for livelihood support below). In Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC): Emergency livelihood support is needed for the poor urban populations that are unable to cope with soaring food prices and declining purchasing power. The largest concentration of urban populations in AFLC is in the south (300,000 or 53%), followed by the north (215,000 or 38% in northeast and northwest), the majority of which are ‘poor’ households (88%).

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 3 Issued October 15, 2008 The urban population in AFLC (565,000) is almost as high as the number of rural people in AFLC (755,000). Strategies for response include: • Public work programmes for cash transfers (cash vouchers, cash for work); increased safety net programmes; improved social services; educational support (school feeding, take-home rations, waivers for school fees); micro-ﬁnance of agricultural projects and other training programmes; food for work programmes; supplementary feeding through health clinics; subsidized basic services (rent, electricity, water, transport); and debt relief. • Parallel interventions to rehabilitate water sources for human consumption; distribution of ORS; health and hygiene education; immunization campaigns; establishment of selective feeding centres, where acute malnutrition rates are high; and support for local health services or mobile clinics. Table 2: Somalia Distribution of Urban Population in Crisis

Acute Food and UNDP 2005 Total UNDP 2005 Urban Humanitarian Total in AFLC % of Total in Zone Livelihood Crisis Population Population Emergency (HE) & HE AFLC & HE (AFLC) Central 680,156 153,382 50,000 10,000 60,000 9 North 512,979 234,382 105,000 25,000 130,000 18 South 4,480,780 1,687,815 300,000 75,000 375,000 53 North West 1,828,739 819,989 110,000 30,000 140,000 20 Grand Total 7,502,654 2,895,568 565,000 140,000 705,000 100

Acute Food and Humanitarian % of Total in Livelihood Crisis Total in AFLC & HE Emergency (HE) AFLC & HE (AFLC) Poor 480,000 140,000 620,000 88 Middle 85,000 0 85,000 12

Better-off 00 00 Grand Total 565,000 140,000 705,000 100

Table 3: Somalia Combined Rural, Urban and IDP Population Numbers, July - Dec. 2008 Total in Urban in Acute Rural in Acute Urban in Rural UNDP UNDP 2005 UNDP AFLC and Food and Food and Humanitarian Humanitarian Region 2005 Total Urban 2005 Rural HE as % Livelihood Livelihood Emergency Emergency Population1 Population11 Population1 of Total Crisis (AFLC)2 Crisis (AFLC)2 (HE)2 (HE)2 population North Awdal 305,455 110,942 194,513 10,000 5,000 0 0 5 Woqooyi Galbeed 700,345 490,432 209,913 10,000 20,000 0 0 4 Togdheer 402,295 123,402 278,893 55,000 50,000 20,000 0 31 Sanaag 270,367 56,079 214,288 20,000 30,000 5,000 0 20 Sool 150,277 39,134 111,143 15,000 20,000 5,000 0 27 Bari3 367,638 179,633 202,737 80,000 0 25,000 0 29

executive summary Nugaal 145,341 54,749 75,860 25,000 10,000 0 0 24 Sub-total 2,341,718 1,054,371 1,287,347 215,000 135,000 55,000 0 17 Central Mudug 350,099 94,405 255,694 30,000 50,000 0 55,000 39 Galgaduud 330,057 58,977 271,080 15,000 60,000 10,000 115,000 61 Sub-total 680,156 153,382 526,774 45,000 110,000 10,000 170,000 49 South Hiran 329,811 69,113 260,698 20,000 65,000 5,000 115,000 62 Middle Shabelle 514,901 95,831 419,070 30,000 100,000 0 150,000 54 Lower Shabelle 850,651 172,714 677,937 65,000 125,000 15,000 100,000 36 Bakool 310,627 61,438 249,189 25,000 65,000 0 80,000 55 Bay 620,562 126,813 493,749 35,000 15,000 0 0 8 Gedo 328,378 81,302 247,076 30,000 80,000 0 20,000 40 Middle Juba 238,877 54,739 184,138 25,000 35,000 0 5,000 27 Lower Juba 385,790 124,682 261,108 45,000 25,000 0 0 18 Sub-total 3,579,597 786,632 2,792,965 275,000 510,000 20,000 470,000 36 Banadir 901,183 901,183 - 30,000 - 55,000 - 9 Grand Total 7,502,654 2,895,568 4,607,086 565,000 755,000 140,000 640,000 28 % of Total Distribution of Assessed and Contingency Population in AFLC and HE Number affected population populations in crisis Assessed Urban population in AFLC and HE 705,000 95 22% Assessed Rural population in AFLC and HE 1,395,000 195 43% Estimated number of new IDPs-updated August 1st 870,0004 125 27% Estimated number of protracted IDPs 275,000 45 8% Estimated Rural, Urban and IDP population in crisis 3,245,000 435 100%

1 Source: Population Estimates by Region/District, UNDP Somalia, August 1, 2005. FSAU does not round these population estimates as they are the ofﬁcial estimates provided by UNDP 2 Estimated numbers are rounded to the nearest ﬁve thousand, based on resident population not considering current or anticipated migration, and are inclusive of population in High Risk of AFLC or HE for purposes of planning 3 Dan Gorayo is included within Bari Region following precedent set in population data prior to UNDP/WHO 2005 4 Source UN-OCHA/UNHCR: New IDP updated August 1, 2008 (868,160) rounded to the nearest 5,000. Protracted IDP revised from UN-OCHA/UNHCR estimate (previously 400,000) following the new IDP movement which included protracted IDP (February 2008) 5 Percent of total population of Somalia estimated at 7,502,654 (UNDP/WHO 2005)

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 4 Issued October 15, 2008 Map 1: SOMALIA INTEGRATED PHASE CLASSIFICATION MAP, Rural, Urban and IDP Populations, Projections July - December '08

Defining Attributes of Crisis

Areas in Phase 3, 4 or 5 Tot a l Urban 41°0'0"E 44°0'0"E 47°0'0"E Rural -100% 50°0'0"E Population in Phase (Includes High Risk) Rural: 100,000 Tot a l Urban Rural -100% Urban: 0-100,000 101,000-500,000 Rural: 25,000 120,000 >500,000 IDP: 100,000 Magnitude -100% Urban: 20,000 IDP: 15,000 i, ii, iii Percent of urban population a, d, e, f, g, h, i in respective phase i, ii, iii Depth d, e, f, h, i A, B, C

12°0'0"N Low Calula 12°0'0"N -0% A, B Criteria for Social Targeting Low * * * -0% BOSSASO Livelihood system Wh o i * * -0% )!. ii Wealth group #¸ Qandala Las Qoray/ iii Gender Zeylac Badhan Bossaaso Key Immediate Causes Lughaye ERIGABO a Drought AWDAL #¸!. Floods Iskushuban b Baki #) c Tsunami ¹Berbera Borama SANAG Civil Insecurity d BORAMA Ceel Afweyne BARI e Market Disruptions !. Sheikh Ceerigaabo Wh y # W. GALBEED f Disease Outbreaks ¹ Gebiley g Population Influx HARGEYSA BURAO )!. )!. h Inflation #¸ ) Qardho i Water Shortages Hargeysa Owdweyne Xudun Bandar Beyla Key Underlying Causes Caynabo Talex A Post State Conflict TOGDHEER B Environmental Degradation Burco SOOL

C9°0'0"N Social Marginalization 9°0'0"N Laas¸ Caanood Garowe Recurrence of Crisis in Past 10 yrs !.# GAROWE Buuhoodle LAS ANOD !.

Frequency Low(1-2yrs), Moderate(3-4), High (>= 5) Tot a l Urban Confidence Level of Analysis Rural -100% Eyl Rural: 180,000 NUGAL Low * * * Medium * * * High Urban: 25,000 Burtinle Confidence executive summary Rural Tot a l IDP: 50,000 Urban -100% i, ii, iii Rural: 10,000 Urban: a, d, e, f, g, h, i Galkacyo Jariiban 130,000 Rural

Tot a l Goldogob) Urban IDP: 10,000 -100% A, B, C Rural: GALKAYO i, ii, iii 160,000 Moderate/ Low !!!. Urban: 60,000 d, e, g, h * * *

Rural -0% Tot a l Urban IDP: 45,000 -100% A i, ii, iii Rural: 100,000 !! Low Urban: a, d, e, f, h, i !! Cadaado MUDUG 30,000 * * -0% IDP: 30,000 A, B, C Hobyo Cabudwaaq 6°0'0"N i, ii, iii Moderate/ Low DUSAMAREB 6°0'0"N Tot a l Urban a, d, e, f, h, i -0% !!. Rural -100% * * * #!¸ A, B, C ) Dhusa Mareeb !! Rural: 280,000 Urban: 55,000 High/ Low ) GALGADUD IDP: 195,000 * * * BELET WEYNE Harardheere -0% i, ii, iii Ceel Barde Beled!!¸!. Weyne !! ! # Ceel Bur ! a, d, e, h, i BAKOOL A Rab- Xudur Dhuure High/ Low !! )!.HUDUR HIIRAN Ceel Dheere Dolo * * * -0% Luuq Bulo )Barde !)! Wajid !! !! !!) Aden Yabal Current or Imminent Phase

GARBAHAREY Tayeglow 1A Generally Food Secure !. Baydhaba Jalalaqsi)! BAIDOA ! Cadale Garbaharey 1B Generally Food Secure Beled Hawa !!)!. Qansax Jowhar!)! M. SHABELLE 2 Borderline Food Insecure ) )! !. 3°0'0"N ! Dheere ! Wanle Weyne JOWHAR) 3°0'0"N GEDO! BAY !! 3 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis Ceel Waq ) Bur Hakaba !!)Balcad!! 4 Humanitarian Emergency Dinsor Afgoye¸ Baardheere #)! BANADIR 5 Famine/Humanitarian Catastrophe ! ! "/ ! #¸) MOGADISHU Qoryoley Sakow !)! !. Risk of Worsening Phase ) Kurtun Warrey) Marka) Tot a l Urban Rural Watch .Coloured diagonal lines indicate -100% shift in Phase M. JUBA BU'AALE Sablale Rural: 475,000 )!. L.) SHABELLE Moderate Risk Black lines indicate worsening Urban: 195,000 . Bu'aale Brava!!) High Risk magnitude only KENYA ! IDP: 495,000 L. JUBA! i, ii, iii Projected Trend Afmadow Jilib ) a, b, d, e, g, h Improving Situation Worsening Situation A, C No Change Mixed Situation Jamaame Low * * * -0% # Urban Populations in Humanitarian Emergency # and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis 0°0'0" KISMAAYO -100% 0°0'0" Kismayo )!. Areas of New IDP Concentrations in Acute Food Rural Urban Tot a l and Livelihood Crisis and Humanitarian Rural: 65,000 Emergency as of August 2008 70,000 Urban: ± Areas of Old IDP Concentrations prior to Badhadhe IDP: 20,000 030609012015015 January, 2008 i, ii, iii Sustained Phase 3, 4 or 5 for > 3 yrs d, e, h Ki lometer s A, C NOTES: 1. Estimated populations do not include IDP, and are High/ Low rounded to the nearest 5,000 41°0'0"E 44°0'0"E 47°0'0"E 2. For category explanations see http://www.fsausomali.org50°0'0"E * * -0% Datum: WGS84, Data Source: FSAU, 2007, Admin. layers: UNDP, 1998, Updated: Nov, 2007

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 5 Issued October 15, 2008 Table 4: Integrated Food Security Phase Classiﬁcation Reference Table (FAO/FSAU May. 2008) Table 1 IPC Reference Table Key Reference Outcomes Strategic Response Framework Phase Current or imminent outcomes on lives and livelihoods. Based on Objectives: Classification convergence of direct and indirect evidence rather than absolute (1) mitigate immediate outcomes, (2) support thresholds. Not all indicators must be present for classification.. livelihoods, and (3) address underlying causes Crude Mortality Rate < 0.5 / 10,000 / day 1A Generally Food Acute Malnutrition <3 % (w/h <-2 z-scores) Strategic assistance to pockets of food insecure groups Stunting <20% (h/age <-2 z-scores) Investment in food and economic production systems Secure Food Access/ Availability usually adequate (> 2,100 kcal ppp day), stable Enable development of livelihood systems based on principles Dietary Diversity consistent quality and quantity of diversity of sustainability, justice, and equity Water Access/Avail. usually adequate (> 15 litres ppp day), stable Prevent emergence of structural hindrances to food security 1B Generally Food Hazards moderate to low probability and vulnerability Advocacy Secure Civil Security prevailing and structural peace Livelihood Assets generally sustainable utilization (of 6 capitals) Crude Mortality Rate <0.5/10,000/day; U5MR<1/10,000/day Acute Malnutrition >3% but <10 % (w/h <-2 z-score), usual range, stable Design & implement strategies to increase stability, resistance Stunting >20% (h/age <-2 z-scores) and resilience of livelihood systems, thus reducing risk Food Access/ Availability borderline adequate (2,100 kcal ppp day); unstable Provision of ‘safety nets’ to high risk groups Borderline Dietary Diversity chronic dietary diversity deficit Interventions for optimal and sustainable use of livelihood assets 2 Water Access/Avail. borderline adequate (15 litres ppp day); unstable Create contingency plan Food Insecure Hazards recurrent, with high livelihood vulnerability Redress structural hindrances to food security Civil Security Unstable; disruptive tension Close monitoring of relevant outcome and process indicators Coping ‘insurance strategies’ Advocacy Livelihood Assets stressed and unsustainable utilization (of 6 capitals) Structural Pronounced underlying hindrances to food security Crude Mortality Rate 0.5-1 /10,000/day, U5MR 1-2/10,000/dy Support livelihoods and protect vulnerable groups

Acute Malnutrition 10-15 % (w/h <-2 z-score), > than usual, increasing Strategic and complimentary interventions to immediately ↑ food Disease epidemic; increasing access/availability AND support livelihoods Food Access/ Availability lack of entitlement; 2,100 kcal ppp day via asset stripping Selected provision of complimentary sectoral support (e.g., Acute Food Dietary Diversity acute dietary diversity deficit water, shelter, sanitation, health, etc.) 3 and Livelihood Water Access/Avail. 7.5-15 litres ppp day, accessed via asset stripping Strategic interventions at community to national levels to create, Crisis Destitution/Displacement emerging; diffuse stabilize, rehabilitate, or protect priority livelihood assets Civil Security limited spread, low intensity conflict Create or implement contingency plan Coping ‘crisis strategies’; CSI > than reference; increasing Close monitoring of relevant outcome and process indicators Livelihood Assets accelerated and critical depletion or loss of access Use ‘crisis as opportunity’ to redress underlying structural causes Advocacy 1-2 / 10,000 / day, >2x reference rate, increasing; Crude Mortality Rate U5MR > 2/10,000/day Acute Malnutrition >15 % (w/h <-2 z-score), > than usual, increasing Urgent protection of vulnerable groups Disease Pandemic Urgently ↑ food access through complimentary interventions Food Access/ Availability severe entitlement gap; unable to meet 2,100 kcal ppp day Humanitarian Selected provision of complimentary sectoral support (e.g., Dietary Diversity Regularly 3 or fewer main food groups consumed water, shelter, sanitation, health, etc.) executive summary 4 Emergency Water Access/Avail. < 7.5 litres ppp day (human usage only) Protection against complete livelihood asset loss and/or Destitution/Displacement concentrated; increasing advocacy for access Civil Security widespread, high intensity conflict Close monitoring of relevant outcome and process indicators Coping ‘distress strategies’; CSI significantly > than reference Use ‘crisis as opportunity’ to redress underlying structural causes Livelihood Assets near complete & irreversible depletion or loss of access Advocacy

Crude Mortality Rate > 2/10,000 /day (example: 6,000 /1,000,000 /30 days) Critically urgent protection of human lives and vulnerable groups Acute Malnutrition > 30 % (w/h <-2 z-score) Comprehensive assistance with basic needs (e.g. food, water, Famine / Disease Pandemic shelter, sanitation, health, etc.) 5 Humanitarian Food Access/ Availability extreme entitlement gap; much below 2,100 kcal ppp day Immediate policy/legal revisions where necessary Catastrophe Water Access/Avail. < 4 litres ppp day (human usage only) Negotiations with varied political-economic interests Destitution/Displacement large scale, concentrated Use ‘crisis as opportunity’ to redress underlying structural causes Civil Security widespread, high intensity conflict Advocacy Livelihood Assets effectively complete loss; collapse

Risk of Probability / Worsening Severity Reference Process Indicators Implications for Action Likelihood Phase Occurrence of, or predicted Hazard event stressing livelihoods; Watch As yet unclear Not applicable with low or uncertain Vulnerability Close monitoring and analysis Process Indicators: small negative changes Review current Phase interventions Occurrence of, or predicted Hazard event stressing livelihoods; Close monitoring and analysis Elevated probability / Specified by Moderate Risk with moderate Vulnerability Contingency planning likelihood predicted Phase, and indicated by Process Indicators: large negative changes Step-up current Phase interventions Occurrence of, or strongly predicted major Hazard event Preventative interventions--with increased High probability; ‘more color of diagonal stressing livelihoods; with high Vulnerability and low Capacity urgency for High Risk populations High Risk likely than not’ lines on map. Process Indicators: large and compounding negative changes Advocacy

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 6 Issued October 15, 2008 1.3 SECTOR HIGHLIGHTS

CLIMATE In most regions of south and central, Gu 2008 rains were generally below normal. The onset of the rains was delayed about three weeks, except for pastoral areas in the Juba, parts of Gedo bordering Kenya and parts of Bay region and the season also ended in late May, earlier than expected. The Middle Shabelle, Bakool, Hiran, and central regions were especially affected and crop production, water availability, pasture and browse conditions were extremely poor. However, normal rains in the Juba and Bay (except Burhakaba) improved crop and rangeland conditions and attracted livestock from Gedo, Bakool and parts in Kenya and Ethiopia. The coastal areas of the Juba and Shabelle, especially Lower Shabelle, received unusual and above normal Hagaa rains from late May through July, signiﬁcantly improving rangeland and established crops. Gu rains performed poorly in key pastoral zones in the north, Sool, Sanaag, Togdheer and Nugal leading to deterioration in rangeland conditions. In the northwest, below normal Gu rains negatively affected short-cycle maize, but good long Karan rains (Aug-Oct) is improving the cereal production. Overall, Gu rains were above average in pockets of the Addun pastoral in the central, most of the Bari, and parts of Nugal, Awdal and the Hawd of Hargeisa.

CIVIL INSECURITY Civil insecurity and conflict has steadily worsened over the last seven months, especially in the southern and central regions, and currently the security situation is the worst the country has experienced since the collapse of the government in the early 1990’s. Civil instability and insecurity continues to escalate with increased incidents of abductions, assassinations, killings and armed conflict. Clans have split with new political and religious divisions that are adding layers of uncertainty and volatility. The prolonged and escalating conflict and civil insecurity is creating an economic crisis throughout the country. In late September peace talks were held between the Somali transitional government and the opposition in Djibouti. While some progress was made on certain issues, others, executive summary including the ceasefire, remained unresolved. The security situation in Mogadishu remains extremely volatile with continuing displacement out of the capital into surrounding districts.

AGRICULTURE The Gu ‘08 cereal production in southern Somalia, estimated at 84,750MT, of which 58% of the Gu PWA 1995 - 2007). Of the total cereal production, 50% is sorghum, 48% is maize and 2% rice. Although this year’s Gu production is signiﬁcantly better than last year’s production, this Gu cereal production is the third lowest production in more than decade. Of the two major cereal crops, sorghum production performed better (80% of Gu PWA) due to good harvest from the key sorghum production region of Bay. Conversely, Gu maize production is only 45% of the PWA, due to the poor seasonal rains and irrigation infrastructure in riverine areas. 40% of the total cereal production is from Bay followed by 39% from Lower Shabelle, due to average rainfall, an increase planted area and the rehabilitation

of the main canals. The Shabelle regions produced only 42% of the Gu maize PWA. Poor rainfall and irrigation infrastructure in the riverine livelihood, costly farm inputs, limited tractor hours and insecurity contributed to lower production. In the northwest agro-pastoral, cereal establishment projection estimates are below average (only 56% of PWA), due to the below average Gu ‘08 rains. However, crop production is expected to be higher than the establishment projections due to favorable Karan rains in the last few months.

FSAU crop production survey and cereal availability analysis indicates that many rural households in the Shabelle, Juba and Bay regions have some cereal stocks, estimated to last ﬁve to seven months. Cereal prices show an upward trend in all markets of southern Somalia with signiﬁcant increase of 220% - 275% since Jan. ‘08. Prices of cereals are expected to increase further over the coming months due to several factors, including the overall poor performance of the Gu ‘08 season.

LIVESTOCK Rangeland conditions in the drought-affected areas of Central, Hiran, Bakool and the rain deﬁcit areas of Hawd Livelihood Zone (LZ), of Togdheer, Sool, Nugal and Mudug regions, further deteriorated after another seasonal rain failure. Other areas also adversely affected by the poor Gu ‘08 rains include Gedo, Bakool, the Sool plateau and the Gabi Valley LZ of Sanaag. Acute water shortage and very poor pasture will be a continuing problem during the dry Hagaa season (Aug. - mid Oct.). Therefore, poor and middle households have had to resort to water trucking that many can no longer afford due to high debts incurred from expensive water and food purchases over the last 12 months. Rangeland in the W. Galbeed, Awdal, Shabelle, Bari, Bay and Juba regions beneﬁtted from normal Gu ‘08 rainfall, followed good Karan and Hagaa rains respectively which subsequently improved rangeland conditions.

The FSAU Gu ‘08 pastoral herd dynamics analysis indicates a decreasing trend in herd sizes when compared to the end of Deyr ‘07/08 season (Dec.’07). In drought-affected areas of central, Hiran, and Bakool, pastoralists are showing a signiﬁcant decreasing trend due to high abortion/death rates and additional off-take needed to cover increasing water trucking costs and growing food prices. Prices of all livestock species throughout Somalia have

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 7 Issued October 15, 2008 steadily increased since Jan. ‘07 and are higher than the 5-year average, primarily due to the devaluation of the Somali Shilling, rising cereal prices, general inﬂationary pressure, and increased external demand for Ramadan and Hajj period. Livestock exports from Jan. to July ‘08 through Berbera and Bossaso ports reached 796,737 heads of which 85% were sheep and goats. This is 37% lower than the Jan.-July ‘04-07 average and one of the lowest since 2001. In Jan.-July ‘08 chilled meat exports have signiﬁcantly increased, Burao and Galkayo abattoirs exported 96,798 and 49,273 carcasses respectively.

MARKETS AND TRADE Over the last year, the escalating conflict and political instability has led to uncontrolled and excessive printing of the Somali Shilling, in large part to fund the growing local conflict. As a result, newly printed Somali Shilling notes have flooded the markets, rapidly increasing the monetary supply and causing serious devaluation of the Somali shilling, which hit record low levels of exchange - depreciating 165% since January ‘07 (Figure 16). Trade, transportation networks and economic activities are also severely disrupted in most of the southern and central markets and at seaports due to civil instability. In addition, as a result of the escalating civil insecurity, renewed marine piracy, higher port tariffs, and a depreciated Somali Shilling (which makes imports more expensive), imported food commodities such as rice, sugar, vegetable oil and wheat flour are in short supply. Rice prices have increased dramatically in all markets. For instance, in the main market of Merka in Lower Shabelle, the price of rice increased by 229%, from SoSh 13,000/kg in Jan ‘08 to SoSh 42,750/kg in July ‘08 (Figure 17). Similar trends were observed in Afmadow, Baidoa, Bardera, Jowhar, Beletweyne, and Galkayo.

NUTRITION Based on the integrated Post Gu ‘08 nutrition situation analysis conducted by FSAU and partners, (see Appendix 5.1 - for classiﬁcation of Alert, Serious, Critical and Very Critical) survey results and the application of median

rates, (referring to NCHS WHZ) approximately 180,000 children are estimated to be acutely malnourished in South Central Somalia and the IDP population in the north. Of the total malnourished children, 26,000 are estimated to be severely malnourished. Over half of these children are in Shabelle and Central regions. Nevertheless, crude and under five years mortality rates remained below the respective emergency thresholds of 2 and 4 deaths per 10,000 population per day. A summary of the key findings are presented under the sectoral reports, with more detailed analysis by livelihood under the regions. The FSAU Nutrition Update Publication for July-August 2008, provides exhaustive information on nutrition findings and the integrated analysis of the nutrition situation.

1.4 INTEGRATED FOOD SECURITY ANALYSIS HIGHLIGHTS

URBAN In June ‘08, FSAU once again conducted a rapid urban assessment to determine whether food access for urban executive summary populations had further deteriorated due to the ongoing hyperinﬂation. Indicators revealed that the food security situation for urban populations had deteriorated since March ‘08. The total number of the urban population currently in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) and Humanitarian Emergency (HE) is 705,000, a 22% increase when compared to April ‘08 estimates. Eighty-eight percent of the total number of urban people in crisis is poor, with 480,000 urban poor in AFLC and 140,000 in HE. The largest concentration of urban population in crisis is found in the southern regions (53%), where civil insecurity is most prevalent and cereal production is low due to ongoing drought.

GEDO REGION The overall food security and nutrition situation of Gedo region further deteriorated in the last six months. The number of people in Humanitarian Emergency or Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis is estimated to be 130,000 an increase from 45,000 people in Jan.’08. The deterioration is most significant in the Dawa Pastoral, Southern Agro-pastoral and Juba pump irrigation livelihoods both in north and south. This further deterioration is a result of several seasons of below average rains leading to failed or poor crops, depletion of rangeland resources, low livestock productivity, reduction in livestock herd sizes and livestock out-migration, while hyperinflation affecting food and non food items has significantly weakened the purchasing power for poor households including urban populations. All these factors has translated into the nutrition situation for pastoral and riverine livelihoods shifting from Critical to Very Critical between Jan and July ‘08 while maintaining the Critical level for agro-pastoral livelihoods.

LOWER AND MIDDLE JUBA REGIONS The food security and nutrition situation in the Juba regions is varied due to differences in rainfall patterns during Gu ‘08. Currently, the food security situation in Middle Juba continues to deteriorate with 36,000 of its rural population and 25,000 of its urban population in AFLC. In addition, approximately 7,000 people, located in the Buale, Jilib and Sakow riverine areas, which were previously in AFLC, are now in HE. In contrast the food security situation in Lower Juba has seen some improvement due to average rainfall and cereal production levels, increased labour opportunities and improved rangeland and livestock body conditions. An estimated 13,000 people who were

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 8 Issued October 15, 2008 previously in HE are now in AFLC. The number of rural and urban population in AFLC is currently 25,000 and 45,000 respectively. The integrated Post Gu ‘08 nutrition situation analysis indicates an improvement in the riverine population from Critical levels recorded in Post Deyr ‘07/08 to a Serious phase. The improvement is likely attributed to increased access to fruits and vegetables, especially in the Lower Juba areas, and to humanitarian interventions targeting the riverine population. However, the nutrition situation of the riverine community in Middle Juba is likely to deteriorate due to the worsening food security situation.

BAY AND BAKOOL The overall food security and nutrition situation in Bakool region is deteriorating. Poor rainfall resulted in complete crop failure, and the deterioration of water, pasture and browse conditions have resulted in a decrease in livestock body condition, very low milk production, and abnormal livestock migration to Bay and Lower Shabelle regions. There was no Zakat from crop production due to the crop failure. Poor households in Bakool livelihoods have very limited purchasing power, due to crop failure, restricted access to job opportunities, low milk production sales and increased local cereal and imported commodity prices. Due to weak livestock body conditions, local goat prices declined from 575,000 SoSh in April to 437,500 SoSh in July in Hudur market. Poor and parts of middle wealth groups have been forced to sell more livestock, including breeding animals, as a coping strategy, which will cause herd sizes to fall even further below baseline levels.

In contrast the food security situation in Bay region varies considerably. Average Gu ‘08 rains in many parts of the region resulted in average cereal production, improved availability of water, pasture and browse and an overall enhancement in livestock body conditions and production. Zakat from crop production was average. Cereal stocks are expected to last between six to eight months, depending on household production levels. This is attributed to good cereal production during three of the last four seasons (See regions section). The nutrition situation in Bak- ool region has deteriorated from Critical in January’08 to Very Critical. In Bay region, insufﬁcient data limited integrated nutrition situation analysis, however, available key evidence indicates ‘likely to be critical’ situation. executive summary

SHABELLE REGIONS The food security and nutrition situation remains poor in Lower Shabelle with further deterioration in Middle Shabelle resulting in doubling of the affected population since January ‘08. A total of 585,000 people are either in a state of Humanitarian Emergency or Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis requiring humanitarian assistance and livelihood support. An early warning level of Watch is projected through the next six months, July-Dec. ‘08. Delayed and poor rains during Gu that followed several seasons of below-average crop production, high cost of inputs for agriculture and exhausted rangeland conditions for parts of the pastoral and agro-pastoral zones are some of the key factors causing the situation. In addition, low cereal supply combined with hyperinﬂation of staple and non-staple commodities, disrupted trade and insecurity in and around Mogadishu with huge outﬂows of IDPs into the regions are the primary factors maintaining current humanitarian and livelihood crisis. The nutritional situation in agro-pastoralists remains

Critical, while riverine people remain in a Serious nutrition situation indicating no change from Deyr’07/08. The nutrition situation of IDPs in Shabelle, Afgoi and Merka areas, indicates a Critical phase while for those internally displaced within Mogadishu the situation is Very Critical.

HIRAN REGION The food security situation in Hiran region has deteriorated since Deyr ‘07/08. The number of people in Humani- tarian Emergency (HE) in the region increased significantly, from 25,000 to 120,000 (including rural and urban populations). The total number of people in both Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) and HE has doubled since Deyr ‘07/08 and currently stands at 205,000, representing 69% of the rural population. The serious deterioration in the food security situation is attributed to the fifth consecutive season of rain failure, hyperinflation, and civil insecurity. The worst affected livelihood zone is the agro-pastoral, where 66,000 people are now in HE and 37,000 in AFLC. This is followed by the riverine LZ, where 24,000 people are in HE and 5,000 in AFLC. The humanitarian situation of the Hawd and Southern Inland Pastoral LZs has also continued to deteriorate since Jan ‘08. The number of people in HE now includes 23,000 people, with another 22,000 people in AFLC. Southern Inland Pastoral LZ, the most drought resilient LZ in the region, is now facing multiple shocks including drought, civil insecurity and market stress, which led to a serious deterioration in the food security situation and subsequently resulted in those previously categorized as Borderline Food Insecure (BFI) to be placed in AFLC or HE. The nutrition situation is in a sustained Critical phase since the Deyr ‘07/08.

CENTRAL REGION The food security and overall humanitarian situation for all livelihoods in the central regions (Galgadud and south Mudug) have deteriorated further since Deyr ‘07/08 due to complete rainfall failure during the Gu ‘08, and previous seasons of successive poor rainfall resulting in even worse drought conditions. Since April ‘08, the number of people in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) has signiﬁcantly increased with early warning levels of Watch for all livelihoods. The IPC phase in the central region was revised in April ‘08

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 9 Issued October 15, 2008 from AFLC to HE due to further increases in the percentage of the population affected. Currently, all the poor and the middle wealth groups in Hawd/Addun pastoralists and cowpea/coastal Deeh are in HE and require immediate humanitarian life saving assistance. If effective and timely humanitarian responses are not in place during the period from July to December ‘08 the situation might deteriorate even further. Indicators to monitor over the projected period include: civil insecurity and impact on humanitarian access, inﬂation rate, market access, inter-regional trade and economic activities, water/pasture, livestock prices versus cereals, levels of malnutrition and crude mortality rate, effects of the IDPs on host communities, level of rural destitution and level of asset loss.

The region is currently facing the impact of multiple shocks including successive seasons of below normal rains that resulted in extended water trucking, deterioration in rangeland conditions resulting in poor livestock body conditions, abnormal inflation of food and non food commodity prices, disrup- tion in economic activities and TOT decline. The nutrition situation is in a sustained Critical phase.

NORTHWEST REGION As a result of successive rain failure during the past Deyr ‘07/08 and Gu ‘08, acute water and pasture shortages and hyperinﬂation, resulting in increased and high levels of livestock off-take, the situation for some pastoral and agro-pastoral areas in the Northwest regions have deteriorated since the Deyr ‘07/08 assessment. The Togdheer agro-pastoral and the Hawd, Sool and Nugaal Valley pastoral livelihood zones (LZs) are now classiﬁed in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC).

Depending on the outcome of the Deyr ‘08/09 rains and the rate of hyperinﬂation over the next few months, there is a moderate risk of Humanitarian Emergency (HE) for the poor before the end of year. Awdal and Galbeed agro- pastoral livelihood zones are identiﬁed as Borderline Food Insecure (BFI) with a high risk of deteriorating to

AFLC. As a result of this overall deterioration, the number of the people in HE and AFLC, which includes urban and IDPs, has significantly increased. Livestock body conditions are average to poor in all regions. Camel milk availability is poor to average due to ‘low to none’ calving rates in Gu ‘08 and as a result are severely affecting both households’ income and consumption. Even kidding/calving rates during Deyr ‘08/09 are expected to be low due to low conception rates during Gu ‘08, both for small ruminants and Deyr ‘07/08 for camel. The total number of livestock exports in Jan.-July 2008 through Berbera ports was 346,153 heads of which is 16% lower than Jan.-July ‘07 (405,973 heads), and one of the lowest export figures since 2001. There has been significant deterioration in the nutrition situation from Alert in January’08 to Critical levels across all the livelihoods with the exception of Nugal Valley and the agro-pastoral population who are in a Serious phase, and the West Golis pastoral, currently in a sustained Alert phase. For IDPs in Hargeisa, Burao and Berbera, the nutrition situation has deteriorated to Very Critical phase.

NORTHEAST REGION The food security and livelihood situation of pastoralists has deteriorated since Deyr ‘07/08 due to poor seasonal executive summary rainfall performance, hyperinﬂation and other market disruptions. The worst affected livelihoods zones (LZs) are Hawd and Nugal, which were Borderline Food Insecure (BFI) with Watch during Deyr ‘07/08, but have now deteriorated to Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) with Moderate risk of Humanitarian Emergency (HE). The Sool and Addun LZs remained Borderline Food Insecure (BFI); however, their early warning level changed from Watch to Moderate Risk of AFLC. Both the availability and access to pasture and water in the Hawd LZ of the Mudug and Nugal regions remains poor due to successive poor rainfall (Deyr ‘07 and Gu ‘08). Berkads in the Hawd have yet to replenish, causing some of the berkads’ foundations to crack and subsequently lose their capacity to hold water resulting in further price increases and reached levels of 50,000-80,000 SoSh/200 liter. Pasture and browse regenerated only slightly due to poor Gu rainfall.

Livestock body conditions in the northern regions are generally poor and continue to deteriorate, except in the eastern Sool LZ. Consequently, livestock production for the season was considered to be very poor with high death rates. Access to milk and marketable animals for barter is low particularly for poor households. Livestock prices have increased steadily since January ‘07 with export quality goat prices in the northeast in July ‘08 being 114% and 152% higher than July ‘07 and July 5-year averages (‘03-’07) respectively. However the price of rice in the northeast is at an all-time high because of increased global cereal prices and the devaluation of the Somali Shilling resulting in a decrease in the TOT. Livestock exported during Jan.- July ‘08 is 21% lower than same time last year which is one of the lowest export ﬁgures since 2001.

The nutrition situation in Sool Plateau and Karkar-Dharor pastoral livelihood zones remain in a sustained Alert phase while the population in the Coastal Deeh is faced with a sustained Serious phase. In the other areas of the northeast, the nutrition situation has deteriorated from Alert to Serious phase.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 10 Issued October 15, 2008 2. ANALYTICAL PROCESSES AND METHODS

This Technical Series Report provides the full technical findings of the Post Gu ‘08 Analysis. This analysis focuses on the outcome of the Gu seasonal rains (June - August.) and provides food security projections for the period July to Dec. ‘08. The analysis updates the Post Deyr 2007/8 Assessment Analysis (FSAU Technical Series, Report No. V.14, March 7, 2008). FSAU collaborated with 55 partners including 17 local authorities in the field at different stages of the assessment, including planning, fieldwork, and analysis. Table 5 provides an overview of the analytical process and timeline. For a complete listing of partners and full timeline, including regional level meetings see Appendix 5.9 and 5.10.

Analytical Process and Timeline In July ‘08, FSAU highlighted the poor rainfall, devaluation of the Somali Shilling and increasing prices, the continued population displacement due to tensions and conﬂict in Mogadishu, and a deteriorating nutritional situation (FSAU Special Brief, July 23, 2008). These factors were taken into consideration during the preparation of the assessment. In addition an Urban impact questionnaire was included in the ﬁeldwork and analysis.

Table 5: Overview of 2008 Post Gu Assessment Analytical Process and Timeline Activity Date Description/Location Finalisation of survey tools, team com-

FSAU Partner Planning Meeting June 13 position and travel and logistical arrange- analytical process and ments. Nairobi Regional Planning meetings in Hargeisa, Regional Planning Workshops July 1 - 3 Garowe, Buale, Dolo, Baidoa, Merka, Jowhar, Beletweyne Fieldwork July 4 - 22 Throughout all regions with partners Regional Analysis Meetings July 23-27 Hargeisa, Garowe FSNB - Early warning to a deepening Release of preliminary results July 23 crisis All Team (FSAU Nairobi and FAs, and All Team Analysis Workshop July 31 - August 5 Partners) in Hargeisa Finalization of Key Findings August 6 - 13 Hargeisa

Vetting of Nutrition results with methods August 13 Nairobi Partners Vetting of Integrated results with August 20 Nairobi Partners Presentation to Special SSS FSEDC Release of Results August 22 Meeting, Nairobi and posted on website and Press Release issued August 26 Press Release Regional Presentations in Hargeisa (Sept August 24 - September 6 1), Garowe (Aug 24 and 28), Baidoa (Sept 3), Dolo (Sept 6) September 12 FSAU Special Brief Post Gu ‘08 Analysis FSAU website, email distribution, hard- Release of Technical Series Report October 15 copy mailing

A Post Gu ‘08 assessment Technical Partner Planning meeting was held in Nairobi June 13, 2008. This meeting had a combined agricultural and livestock sector focus with the aim of planning partner collaboration, as well as coordinating and planning fieldwork logistics and support. Seasonal survey instruments (see Appendix 5.11) were finalised and then sent to the field. Prior to the actual fieldwork, Regional Partner Planning Workshops, designed to train participants on field instruments and to plan field logistics, were held fron July 1 - 3 in Hargeisa, Garowe, Belet Weyne, Merka, Dolo, Wajid, Jowhar, and Buale. The teams then conducted fieldwork in their respective regions between July 4 - 23.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 11 Issued October 15, 2008 FSAU and Partner All Team Post Gu ’08 Analysis Workshop, Hargeisa, July 2008.

methods Fieldwork was carried out by 18 FSAU Map 2: Somalia - Gu ’08 Assessment Data Point Locations food security analysts, 2 FSAU consult- ants, 10 FSAU nutrition analysts and with 41°0'0"E 43°0'0"E 45°0'0"E 47°0'0"E 49°0'0"E 51°0'0"E 55 partner organisations including 17 lo- 12°0'0"N cal authorities. The FSAU would like to Alula 12°0'0"N !( Gulf of Aden X X!(" extend a special thanks to our participating DJIBOUTI !(" " " Kandala Bosaso Zeylac !(" !(" !(" " " !( !( X!( !(!("" !(" !("!( partners for their valuable technical con- Lughaye!(" " X Badhan !(" " " !( (! " !(" !( !(" !(" Baki !(!(" X!(" Berbera !(" " " " !( !(!(" " Awdal"" !("!(" Erigavo Iskushuban!( "" !(" !(" !( " !( !(" tributions as well as logistical and other Borama" !(" !("" El Afwein " " "!(" Sheikh !( "" !(" !(!("!( !( " !( " !(""!( Sanag !( X"" !(" !("!( !(" X !( Bari Woq.!("" !(" Galbeed" " """ " !("" " !(" " " " !(" !(" ""!("" !( !( !( 10°0'0"N support during the planning, fieldwork X !(" " 10°0'0"N X!("Gabiley"!("Hargeisa !(" !( "!(" "X " X!( !(" !(!( !(" !( Gardo " !(" !("""" X !(" !(" " X!( !(" !( !(" Odweine" !(Caynaba " " !(" !("Bender Beila and analysis. Fieldwork in some areas was !(" "!("!( Burco!( !(" !("Xudun Taleh !(" !(" " " !(!(" !(" !( " !(" " Togdheer!(" !(" " !(" !(" !(" " restricted due to insecurity and resulted in !(" " !(" " !( Sool !( " " !(!(" !( !(" " !( !( Buhodle !( Garowe !(" !("X"Las anod X!("!(!(" X !(" Eyl field teams not being able to carry out as- !(" !(" " " !(" !(!( !(" Nugal !(" Burtinle 8°0'0"N sessments in parts of Hobyo (Mudug), El !(" 8°0'0"N "!(" " !(" !( " !(" !(" " !(" " !(" Der (Galgadud), Balad (Middle Shabelle), "!("!(" !(" !(" Goldogob!(" !( Jariban !( ETHIOPIA !(" Galkayo " WanleWeyn, Brava and Sabalele (Lower X" !(!( analytical process and analytical process X Shabelle) and Badhadhe and Kismayo !( X Adado Mudug Abudwaq !( 6°0'0"N !( 6°0'0"N (Lower Juba). Map 2 (FSAU Postt Gu 2008 !( Hobyo X !( Indian Ocean Dusa Mareb X Fieldwork Assessment Data Point Loca- !( !( Galgadud !( !( !(X !( !(!( !( !( Belet"!( Weyne Haradhere tions) indicates the areas covered by field El Barde X !(" XEl Bur !( !( " !("" X !( !(!( !( !(" !( !(!(!(!( Bakol!( !(!( !( !( " Rab-Dhuure Hiran!(!(X!(" teams during the assessment. X!( !( XHudur !(!( !( " !(Dolo !(" !( El Der "" X !( X !(" !( !( "Bulo!( Burti " " X"Luuq Wajid Tieglo X!( !(" !( X 4°0'0"N !(" !( X 4°0'0"N " !( !(!( "" Aden Yabal Belet Hawa " !( JalalaqsiX!(" "GarbahareX!("!("" Baidoa !( Adale!( LEGEND Fieldwork was followed by regional !("" "" !( X!( Gedo" !( M. Shabelle QansahX Dere X Wanle Weyne!(Jowhar X El Waq !( X !(X " Survey Data Collection Points analysis workshops in Hargeisa, and " Bay X Balad " X X Bur Hakaba X !( Field Travel Locations " !( Afgoye !( Garowe. The remaining regional analysis Bardera!( Dinsor Qoryoley BanadirX MogadishuX No access !( Sakow!(X L. Shabelle!(X 2°0'0"N (! X 2°0'0"N workshops were cancelled as a result of Kurtun WarreyMarka!(X X!( X Partners and Key informants M. Juba Sablale X!(Buale the delayed start of the fieldwork due to BravaX X Main Market/SLIM Nodes X!( KENYA Major Road insecurity. An FSAU All Team Analysis Afmadow Jilib !( X!( X!( Workshop was held with FEWS NET and X!( Coastline L. Juba JamameX!( International Boundary 0°0'0" 0°0'0" partners in Hargeisa from July 31 - August Kismayo X Regional Boundary

13. The draft analysis was then shared with Badhadhe District Boundary major technical partners in a Technical ± River 5025 0 50 100 150 200 Note: Due to security concerns of using Sateline phones, FSAU Field Analysts were not able to obtain GPS coordinates in most Veriﬁcation and Partner Vetting Meetings Kilometers regions in Central and Southern Somalia Datum: WGS84 Data Source: FSAU 2008

2°0'0"S 41°0'0"E 43°0'0"E 45°0'0"E 47°0'0"E 49°0'0"E 51°0'0"E in Nairobi on August 13 (Nutrition) and Admin. layers: UNDP, 1998 August 20 (Food Security).

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 12 Issued October 15, 2008 To facilitate rapid uptake of assessment results, a presentation was made at a special meeting of the Somali Support Secretariat, FSEDC on Aug 22. Regional presentations of the same overall ﬁndings were made by FSAU Field Analysts throughout Somalia, including Hargeisa, Garoowe, Baidoa and Dolo.

On August 26, the FSAU and FEWSNET issued a press release and key findings were posted on the FSAU website and included the key results of the sector and integrated regional analysis, along with the revised Somalia Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) Map and estimated population numbers by region, district and livelihood zone (valid July - Dec. 2008). A detailed Nutrition Update summarising all the key findings was released on August 29. On September 12 FSAU issued a Special Brief summarizing the sector and integrated regional analysis. The full technical analysis from the Post Gu assessment and analysis are presented in this Technical Series Report.

Assessment Methods and Instruments Primary data collection methodologies included focus group discussions, key informant interviews, market price surveys, crop production surveys, livestock surveys, nutrition surveys, rapid MUAC assessments and food and livelihood security questionnaires (Appendix 5.11). Given the increasing concern regarding the vulnerability of the urban populations, FSAU and partners conducted a rapid urban assessment in 48 centres, building on the ﬁrst assessment carried out in April 2008. The objective of this was to gain a greater understanding of how urban populations are coping with hyperinﬂation. In addition to gathering price information, a rapid MUAC assessment was carried out in 51 urban locations.

In total, 849 crop production surveys including the northwest crop establishment survey, 213 pastoral questionnaires, analytical process and and 51 rapid Urban forms were completed. These were supported and triangulated by a number of sources, including baseline analysis and livelihood proﬁles, USGS/NDVI satellite imagery, monthly main market and SLIMS (Somali Livelihood Indicators and Monitoring System) data, and FSAU and partner situation reports.

Nutritional data used in the situation analysis included 20 recent nutrition surveys conducted from March to July 2008 (14 of which were livelihood based providing much greater integration of food, nutrition and livelihood security); rapid assessments of the nutrition situation using Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) in 315 sites (110 children per site) in areas where recent nutrition survey data was not available (NE, NW, parts of Central and SE), trends in levels of acutely malnourished children attending health facilities (based on monthly reports from 81 health facilities in Health Information System database). In addition secondary data from partners’ selective feeding centres (supplementary and therapeutic care), Acute Watery Diarrhea statistics (AWD) from the World Health Organization and the monthly Somalia Health Cluster Bulletins for January - July 2008 were referred to.

FSAU applied a livelihoods approach in the analysis to clearly highlight the causes and outcomes of food, nutrition methods and livelihood insecurity, and to facilitate multi-sector response planning and monitoring. IPC Evidence-based templates were used to organize and consolidate all analytical field and secondary data, as well as to analyze com- prehensively all evidence and arrive at an area, livelihood, and socio-economic specific Integrated Food Security Phase Classification.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 13 Issued October 15, 2008 3. SECTOR REPORTS

3.1 CLIMATE AND RAINFALL OUTCOME

Map 3: Cumulative Rainfall (mm) Apr 1-June 30, Map 4: Percent of normal rainfall (April 1-June 30, 2008 2008) outcome

Source: NOAA/CPC/FEWS NET

The overall performance of the Gu 2008 rains, in terms Map 5: RelativeNDVIanomaly for July ‘08 of spatial and temporal distribution and intensity, were mostly below normal, negatively affecting crop and rangeland conditions for most parts of the country (Map Awdal 3 and 4). The onset of the Gu rains was delayed about Sanaag Bari three weeks in the south and central regions, with the Woqooyi Galbeed climate and rainfall Togdheer exception of pastoral areas in the Juba regions, parts of Sool Gedo region bordering Kenya and parts of the Bay re- Nugaal gion. In addition, the Gu rainy season also ended early in late May. The Middle Shabelle, Bakool, Hiran and central regions were especially affected by the late start and poor performance of the Gu rains. Mudug

Galgaduud Although satellite imagery indicates good amounts of Hiraan rainfall (due to cloud coverage) in most of the drought- Bakool stricken areas of Bakool, Hiran, and central regions, information collected through ground truthing and field Gedo Shabelle Dhexe Bay reports confirms that the Gu rains generally failed. This Banadir Legend is also confirmed by NDVI which shows below normal Shabelle Hoose Juba Dhexe Large Decrease vegetation in the same regions (Map 5 and Figure 1 and Small Decrease 2). Consequently, water availability, pasture and browse No Difference Juba Hoose Small Increase conditions in these regions are extremely poor. In neigh- Large Inccrease boring parts of Ethiopia, Gu rains were also poor, re- No data sulting in abnormal cross border pastoral migration into Somalia (see Livestock Section). On the other hand, in Source: JRC/MARS FOOD the Juba regions and in Bay (except Burhakaba district) region, rains were largely normal, leading to good crop and rangeland conditions.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 14 Issued October 15, 2008 Figure 1: NDVI for Bay, Bakool, Shabelle, Togdheer, Sanaag, Nugal, Juba, Gedo and Central.

CNDVI Bay - High Potential Sorghum CNDVI Togdheer - Pastoral Vegetation

CNDVI Nugal Valley - Pastoral Vegetation

CNDVI Lower Shabelle - Rainfed

CNDVI Gedo (North) - Pastoral Vegetation

CNDVI Middle Shabelle - Rainfed climate

CNDVI Mudug - Pastoral Herbaceous

CNDVI Bakool - Rainfed

CNDVI Mudug - Pastoral Herbaceous

CNDVI Juba - Flood Irrigated

CNDVI Galgadud - Pastoral Vegetation

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 15 Issued October 15, 2008 Gu rains also performed poorly in the northern key pastoral areas of Sool, Sanaag, Togdheer and Nugal regions, which led to a further deterioration in rangeland conditions as the previous Deyr ‘07/08 rains were also below normal. These regions now face serious water and pasture shortages. A comparison between the actual and long-term mean indicates a signiﬁcant reduction in rainfall for these regions, with levels ranging from only 20% to 40% of the normal year for the period between April and June. Exceptions are some pockets of the Addun pastoral livelihood zone (LZ) in the central regions, most of the Bari region, and parts of Nugal, Awdal and the Hawd of Hargeisa, where Gu rains were above normal.

In the northwest, although the performance of the Gu rains was mostly below normal, affecting the yield of short- cycle maize crops, the performance of Karan (Aug.- Oct.) long rains are reported to be exceptionally good, especially in the key cropping districts of Gabiley, Hargeisa and Borama.

Unusual and above normal Hagaa rains in late May Map 6: Livelihood Zones used in Time Series Analysis through July in the coastal areas of the Juba and Sha- belle regions provided much needed relief, significantly improving rangeland and crop conditions in areas where initial Gu rains were erratic and localized, particularly in the Lower Shabelle region. A substantial amount of rain, ranging from 20 - 80 mm was received for four consecutive dekads - May 20 - June 30 and continued in July. Although satellite imagery of rainfall levels do not reflect this, field reports confirm that these rains have improved standing crops and have led to a significant increase in the area planted for off-season maize. As a result of this extended planting, most of the districts in the Lower Shabelle, where crop failure was imminent, are expecting a good maize harvest in October.

The good Hagaa rains are reflected in the improved vegetation conditions as shown by satellite NDVI (Map 5). Normally, Hagaa rains are received in the coastal areas of southern Somalia and extend 100 km inland climate from the Indian Ocean. However, information from the field confirms that the intensity and spatial distribution of Hagaa rains this June were exceptionally good, with rainfall exceeding normal areas of coverage.

Source: FSAU July, 2008

Figure 2: Historic NDVI% Deviation From Long Term Average

55 Addun Pastoral Hawd Pastoral Juba: South-East Pastoral 45

-5 Average % Deviation Average -15

-25

-35 Jan-08 Jan-06 Jan-04 Jan-02 Jan-00 Jan-98 Jan-96 Jan-94 Jan-92 Jan-90 Jan-88 Jan-86 Jan-84 Sep-08 Sep-06 Sep-04 Sep-02 Sep-00 Sep-98 Sep-96 Sep-94 Sep-92 Sep-90 Sep-88 Sep-86 Sep-84 May-07 May-05 May-03 May-01 May-99 May-97 May-95 May-93 May-91 May-89 May-87 May-85 May-83

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 16 Issued October 15, 2008 3.2 CIVIL INSECURITY

Civil insecurity and conflict has steadily worsened over Map 7: Somalia Insecurity Outcomes, July - August '08 the last seven months, especially in the southern and central regions, and currently the security situation is the worst the country has experienced since the collapse of the government in the early 1990s. Civil instability and insecurity continues to escalate with increased incidents of abductions, assassinations, killings and armed conflict. Clans have split with new political and religious divisions that are adding layers of uncertainty and volatility. There are now multiple insecurity epicentres throughout south/central and the entire area is identified at risk of further deterioration (Map 7).

In late September there were peace talks between the Somali transitional government and the opposition held in Djibouti. A number of insurgent groups have boycotted the peace talks between the transitional government and a major faction of the opposition that has controlled much of southern and central Somalia before their ouster by Somali government troops backed by their Ethiopian allies in December 2006. Some progress was made at the peace talks in Djibouti on certain issues, while others, including the ceaseﬁre, remained civil insecurity unresolved. There have been reports of shelling and threats on the Mogadishu airport limiting private and commercial ﬂights.

In September, nearly a hundred civilians were killed and Source: FSAU, July 2008 more than two hundred others wounded in three days of shelling in neighborhoods south of the Somali capital. As a result, thousands of residents ﬂed their homes to the outskirts of the city to join the hundreds of thousands of displaced people already living there in squalid conditions in makeshift camps.

Direct Impact The armed conﬂict and insecurity is escalating and continuing to directly lead to human suffering in terms of human rights abuses, violence, killings, increased criminality, and population displacement. In addition, the heightened insecurity is also disrupting trade, economic activities, and transportation networks, leading to the loss and destruction of assets, and limiting humanitarian access. The security situation in Mogadishu remains extremely volatile. Reports indicate that inhabitants who remain in the city are now living in a state of terror and are under constant threat of harassment. Many districts within the city are deserted. Many household and business assets abandoned by residents ﬂeeing the violence, have either been looted or destroyed. The increasing civil insecurity will continue to limit trade and economic activities, as well as restrict port and market movement in and out of the city, thus ensuring continued high prices of basic commodities and reduced income earning opportunities for those that remain.

In the Hiran region, the security situation also deteriorated. In July, the region became a battleground between Ethio- pian troops and opposition/insurgent groups. Destruction of assets through shelling and looting, killing of civilians and other human abuses were reported. The ongoing conflict resulted in a total collapse of Belet Weyne’s economy as urban-rural links were severed. There was mass migration from the main towns (Belet Weyne and Bulo Burto) to rural areas and to neighbouring regions. In the past few months, over 70,000 people (mostly poor) have moved from Belet Weyne town to outlying rural areas and are now facing a difficult humanitarian situation, resulting from a lack of food, water and shelter. In addition, rural communities resources are strained as they struggle to accommodate the influx of IDPs migrating from urban centres. In Lower Juba, in late August, heavy fighting was reported between clan militias, in control of Kismayo since early 2007, and ICU forces. After 2-3 days of heavy fighting, ICU forces recaptured Kismayo, the main seaport town of southern Somalia. Over 70 people were killed and hundreds more injured during the fighting. In addition, a significant portion of the population fled from Kismayo to outlying rural areas. The violence has since subsided, but the area remains tense. In the last six months, the number of people fleeing Mogadishu has increased by 23%, from 703,200 in Jan. ‘08 to 868,160 in July ‘08. Most of these people or 45% of these newly displaced people are heavily concentrated in Lower Shabelle region, which is a region already facing the worst in terms of food access, collapsing livelihoods and emergency nutrition levels.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 17 Issued October 15, 2008 During the same period, an additional 30% of internally displaced persons were reported in Banadir, with populations moving from insecure areas of Mogadishu to safer areas within larger towns. Recent displacements are contributing Table 6: Regional IDP Numbers and Percentage Estimated Estimated Urban Estimated # of % of total % of Regional % of Regional Region population Population IDPs Aug. 1, (estimated) IDPs urban Total Population (UNDP 2005) (UNDP 2005) 2008 by region Population Awdal 305,455 110,942 170 0 0.1 0.2 Woqooyi Galbeed 700,345 490,432 16,120 2 2.3 3.3 Togdheer 402,295 123,402 1,410 0 0.4 1.1 Sanaag 270,367 56,079 760 0 0.3 1.4 Sool 150,277 39,134 4,400 1 2.9 11.2 Bari 367,638 179,633 8,500 1 2.3 4.7 Nugal 145,341 54,749 210 0 0.1 0.4 Mudug 350,099 94,405 64,050 7 18.3 67.8 Galgaduud 330,057 58,977 129,700 15 39.3 219.9 Hiran 329,811 69,113 50,700 6 15.4 73.4 Bakool 310,627 61,438 2,300 0 0.7 3.7 Bay 620,562 126,813 43,480 5 7.0 34.3 Middle Shabelle 514,901 95,831 60,730 7 11.8 63.4 Banadir 901,183 901,183 88,000 10 9.8 9.8 Lower Shabelle 850,651 172,714 346,110 40 40.7 200.4 Gedo 328,378 81,302 31,800 4 9.7 39.1 M & L Juba 624,667 179,421 19,720 2 3.2 11.0 TOTAL 7,502,654 2,895,568 868,160 100 11.6 30.0

to further deteriorations in the humanitarian situation in many areas. The impact will be particularly felt in areas with the largest IDP concentrations such as the Shabelle, Hiran and the central regions. These IDPs are concentrated in regions where the host communities are already severely stressed and face conditions of Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis or Humanitarian Emergency. The growing number of IDPs, particularly from Mogadishu, is increasing pressure on host communities, straining food and water resources and health infrastructure, increasing the demand for rental properties and increasing competition for already scarce employment opportunities. In addition, both IDPs and host communities must also cope with record high food and civil insecurity non-food prices. The abduction and killing of humanitarian aid workers in Mogadishu and in the regions of Hiran, Galgadud, Bay, Lower Shabelle and Lower Juba, have also made it extremely difficult for humanitarian agencies to operate. Since January 23, aid workers have been killed in Somalia and 18 workers have been abducted; 11 indi- viduals are still being held captive. Because of increased security risks, many agencies have already pulled out or suspended operations. Those that remain are doing what they can to reach those in need; however, the challenges are becoming increasingly difficult. Currently, humanitarian access in southern and central Somalia is insufficient to meet the growing humanitarian needs.

Indirect Impacts The prolonged and escalating conflict and civil insecurity is creating an economic crisis throughout the country which is having a wider and more devastating impact on the broader population and the humanitarian situation. The unfolding economic crisis is the result of a number of compounding factors. Increased military and insurgent/ opposition group activity has severely disrupted trade (local cereals and other commodities) within the country and across regional borders, resulting in reduction in trade flows and market access, increasing the cost of transporting goods and leading to market price inflation. There are notable increases in the number of illegal checkpoints and reported cases of extortion in humanitarian crisis areas in Hiran and Galgadud. In Puntland, inter-clan conflict continues and increased sea piracy continues to limit import capacity and internal trade. All these factors combined have led to a slow-down in the economy.

The economic crisis is also fueled by the uncontrolled and excessive printing of the local currency, in large part to locally fund the growing conflict. Newly printed Somali shilling notes have flooded the markets, rapidly increasing the money supply and sending the value of the Somali shilling into freefall, hitting record low levels of exchange - depreciating 165% since January ‘07. The dramatic devaluation of the Somali Shilling is further contributing to the hyperinflation of basic food and non-food items, and many rural and urban households not directly affected by conflict are now struggling to meet basic food needs, especially the poor, who are market dependent and have limited capacity to cope with soaring food prices and their declining purchasing power and asset base (see Market Section).

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 18 Issued October 15, 2008 3.3 Gu ‘08 CEREAL CROP PRODUCTION Gu 2008 cereal production in southern Somalia is estimated at 84,750 MT (50% is sorghum, 48% maize and 2% rice), which is only 58% of the Post-War Average (PWA 1995-2007) and 80% of 5-year average (2003 - 2007) cereal production. Although this year’s Gu cereal production is signiﬁcantly better than last year’s record (170% of Gu ‘07), it is the third lowest Gu cereal production in the last fourteen years (Table 7 and Figure 3). This season’s poor production level is mainly attributed to below normal and poorly distributed rains as well as added factors of pests, poor tillage capacity and poor irrigation infrastructure systems.

Table 7: Gu ‘08 Cereal Production Estimates in Southern Somalia

Gu 2008 as % of Gu Gu 2008 as % of 5 Gu 2008 Production in MT Gu 2008 as % of Regions PWA year average Gu 2007 Maize Sorghum Total Cereal (1995-2007) (2003-2007)

Bakol 10 100 110 87% 5% 16%

Bay 2,200 31,500 33,700 1093% 93% 153% Gedo 800 100 900 1034% 15% 31% Hiran 600 1,400 2,000 105% 51% 113%

Juba Dhexe (Middle) 2,400 100 2,500 50% 28% 74%

Juba Hoose (Lower) 5,000 40 5,040 166% 88% 212% 5,450 68% 32% 34% Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) 4,200 1,200 (7,450)1 (93%)1 (44%)1 (46%)1

Shabelle Hoose (Lower)2 25,000 8,100 33,100 122% 52% 61%

82,750 170% 58% 80% Gu 2008 Total 40,210 42,540 (84,750)3 (175%)3 (59%)3 (82%)3

1 Includes 2,000MT of rice from Jowhar crop production 2 Off-season not included, estimated at 12,000MT of maize; harvest expected in Sept/Oct. ‘08 3 Includes 2,000MT of rice from Jowhar

Most of the cereal production in southern Somalia oc- Figure 3: Gu Cereal Production Trends (1995 - 2008) in curred in Bay and Lower Shabelle regions (40% and 39% Southern Somalia 200,000

of the total Gu cereal production, respectively). This is 180,000

due to mostly average rainfall levels and an increase in 160,000 maize Sorghum the area planted within these regions, particularly in Bay. 140,000 PWA (1995-2006) Rehabilitation of main irrigation canals in the riverine, 120,000 100,000

the cereal producing areas in Lower Shabelle, also im- MT proved cereal production levels (Figure 4). 80,000 60,000

40,000

In contrast, the regions of Bakool, Gedo and Middle 20,000 Juba, experienced crop failure with cereal production 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 estimated at only 5%, 15% and 28% of Gu PWA (1995 Year - 2007), respectively. The signiﬁcantly below normal cereal production levels are attributed to late, poor and Figure 4: Regional Contribution of Gu ‘08 Cereal unevenly distributed Gu ‘08 rains. Production in Southern Somalia Shabelle Hoose Bakol (Lower) 0% 39% Likewise, Gu ‘08 maize and sorghum production in Bay Middle Shabelle was also extremely poor (32% of PWA). 40% Total regional cereal production in Gu ‘08 plus rice is only estimated to be 44% of PWA. In Lower Shabelle and Hiran regions, cereal production is also signiﬁcantly

below average at 52% and 51% of PWA, respectively. Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) Hiran Gedo However, good rains in late May and June resulted in off- 9% Juba Hoose (Lower) 2% 1% season planting. Currently, maize is being cultivated in 6% Juba Dhexe (Middle) most parts of the rain-fed Lower Shabelle region, which 3% will contribute an additional 12,000 MT. FSAU and its partners will carry out an off-season crop assessment mid-October ‘08 in the Lower Shabelle region.

The only two regions with near or almost average Gu ‘08 cereal production are Lower Juba and Bay (88% and 93% of PWA, respectively). These two regions beneﬁted from normal cumulative rainfall with the exception of some areas.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 19 Issued October 15, 2008 Sorghum

Sorghum is the main staple food in rain-fed agro-pastoral Figure 5: Regional Contribution of Gu ‘08 Sorghum and pastoral livelihoods in southern Somalia. Sorghum Production production during Gu ‘07 season was a complete failure Bay and was the lowest Gu sorghum production in more than 74% a decade (14% of Gu PWA and 16% of the total cereal production). However, sorghum production improved during Gu ‘08 mainly in Bay and Lower Shabelle (Wanlaweyn) regions, following favourable rains. Sorghum production in Bay and the Shabelles contributed 50% to the Gu

‘08 total cereal production. Gu ‘08 sorghum production, Bakol Gedo estimated at 42,540MT, is about 80% of the Gu PWA 0% 1% Shabelle Hoose Hiran (1995 - 2007), 132% of 5-year average (2003 - 2007) and (Lower) 3% 19% Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) Juba Dhexe (Middle) 545% of Gu ‘07 sorghum production. This near average 3% 0% Juba Hoose (Lower) seasonal sorghum production is attributed to average 0% sorghum production in most sorghum producing regions, particularly in the Bay and Shabelle regions.

Typically the bulk of Somalia’s sorghum is produced in the Bay and Shabelle regions, accounting for more than 80% of the PWA for southern Somalia. Gu ‘08 sorghum production in these regions is estimated at 40,800 MT, which is 96% of the total seasonal sorghum production (74% from Bay and 22% from Shabelle regions combined) and 93% of PWA of the three regions (Figure 5). The total Gu ‘08 sorghum production for all other regions is estimated to be 1,740 MT, which is only 18% of PWA and 4% of total sorghum production due to poorly and unevenly distributed rainfall.

Maize Figure 6: Regional Contribution of Gu ‘08 Maize Gu ‘08 maize production in southern Somalia, which Production Shabelle Hoose occurs mainly in the riverine livelihood, is signiﬁcantly (Lower) 62% lower than the long term average (1995-2007) as well as Bakol 0% the ﬁve-year average (2003 - 2007). Maize production is estimated at 40,210MT, which is only 45% of the Gu maize PWA and 55% of 5-year average but comparable to Gu ‘07

Bay maize production levels (40,746MT); it is the lowest Gu 6%

maize production in fourteen years in southern Somalia. Gedo Maize production normally contributes more than 60% of 2% Hiran Shabelle Dhexe 2% the total Gu cereal production. However, this season, maize (Middle) Juba Dhexe (Middle) 10% 6% Juba Hoose (Lower)

crop production crop contributed only 48%. This is due to crop failure in rain-fed 12% and generally poor production in most of the riverine areas caused by poor and unevenly distributed Gu ‘08 rains. In addition, although the main canals in Lower Shabelle were rehabilitated, generally poor irrigation infrastructure signiﬁcantly hampered agriculturalists’ ability to produce more.

In Gu ‘08, the Shabelle regions, which typically produce more than 75% of the Gu maize PWA, produced only 42% of the Gu maize PWA, 46% of 5-year average and 92% of Gu ‘07 total maize production. Currently, maize production from these regions is estimated at 29,200 MT, constituting 72% of the total Gu maize production in southern Somalia. Lower Juba, mainly Jamame district, produced 12% of total seasonal maize estimates (Figure 6). The total Gu ‘08 maize production for the other regions is estimated to be 6,010 MT, which is only 44% of PWA and 15% of total maize production. This is due to poor and unevenly distributed rainfall and poor irrigation infrastructure in the riverine areas. However, good rains in late May and June resulted in off-season planting in the Shabelle regions. Currently, maize is being cultivated in most parts of the rain-fed Lower Shabelle region and is estimated to produce an additional 12,000 MT. Figure 7: Regional Contribution of Gu ‘08 Sorghum Production Gebiley Northwest 77% In the agro-pastoral areas of Awdal, Galbeed and Togd- heer regions, cereal establishment projection estimates are below average due to the below normal and unevenly distributed Gu ‘08 rains. The Gu/Karan crop establishment cereal production projections estimate a total production of 10,110 MT, which is 56% of the PWA, 42% of Gu/Karan ‘07 and 8% of the total cereal production this Gu ‘08 in Somalia. Togdheer Hargeisa 3% Awdal 4% Gabiley district in Galbeed, the area with the most poten- 16%

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 20 Issued October 15, 2008 tial for producing cereals in the region, is expected to contribute 77% of the total cereal production from the northwest agro-pastoral areas (Figure 7 and Table 8). Favorable Karan rains were received in late July and Aug ‘08 in Awdal and Galbeed regions; therefore, crop production is expected to be higher than the crop establishment projections made during the post Gu ‘08 Crop Survey Assessment. FSAU, along with its partners, plan to carry out a post Gu/Karan ‘08 Crop Harvest Assessment in Somaliland in late Nov or early Dec ‘08.

Table 8: Northwest Gu/Karan ‘08 Cereal Crop Production Estimates

Gu/Karan 2008 Production in MT Gu 2008 as % of Gu 2008 as % of 5 Gu 2008 as % Regions Gu PWA year average of Gu 2007 Maize Sorghum Total Cereal (1998-2007) (2003-2007) Awdal 20 1,700 1,720 42% 51% 38% Togdheer 30 300 330 32% 58% 35% Woqooyi Galbeed 60 8,000 8,060 42% 57% 45% Gu -Karan 2008 total 110 10,000 10,110 42% 56% 43%

Crop Production Constraints Although below normal and poorly distributed rainfall was a key factor leading to poor crop production this season, other factors including silted canals, damaged culverts and barrages, river breakages, mismanagement and misallocation of irrigation facilities and resources, pest damage, and poor agricultural services, further limited the area planted and overall production. Riverine irrigated cereal production could have been signiﬁcantly

greater if irrigation infrastructure was sufﬁcient and crop production river management improved. In addition, pest damage, caused by stalk borer and Quelea Quelea birds, as well as plant diseases, such as leaf blight and smut were also reported by farmers. Harvesting of early planted maize riverine, Merka, Lower Shabelle, July ‘08 Cereal Prices and Availability

FSAU crop production survey and cereal availability analysis indicates that many rural households in the Shabelle, Juba and Bay regions have some cereal stocks, estimated to last five to seven months, depending on regional cereal production levels. The level of domestic cereal stocks in the country is dependent upon both past and current seasonal production levels. For instance, in the Bay region, cereal stocks are available due to above normal to normal crop harvests during three of the last four seasons (Deyrr ‘06/07 228%, Deyrr ‘07/08 129% and Gu ‘08 93% of Gu PWA). In the Shabelle regions, where there is below average cereal production, Middle and Better-off households maintain cereal stocks to ensure sufficient supply for own consumption. Figure 8: Regional Average Monthly Terms of Trade: Local cereal and imported cereal prices increased sig- Cereal to Labour nificantly across the country making food access even 24,000

more challenging for poor households in all livelihoods. 21,000 Juba Valley (Maize White) Combined factors including poor crop production, the 18,000

devaluation of SoSh, hyperinﬂation and increased demand 15,000 Shabelle Valley (Maize White) for cereal have contributed signiﬁcantly to cereal price 12,000 Sorghum Belt (Sorghum Red) increases. The cereal production from southern Somalia is 9,000 expected to enter into markets at the end of Aug. or early 6,000 Price per Kg (SoSh) Sept. ‘08; however, because cereal production levels were 3,000 considerably low, prices are not expected to decrease. 0

Both maize and sorghum prices increased signiﬁcantly Month from Jan. to July ‘08 by 220-275%. When compared to July ‘07, prices for both commodities in July ‘08 increased by 370-700% (Figure 8). During both periods, the highest maize price increases were recorded in the Juba regions. Cereal price levels and price increases vary among markets within southern Somalia with the highest maize prices recorded in Lower Juba and Middle Shabelle (20,000/kg in Jamame and Jowhar) and the highest sorghum prices in Belet Weyne and Hudur (15,000-17,000/kg). Cereal prices increased due to a combination of low cereal production and supply, increasing high demand and further depreciation of the Somali shilling, which has resulted in increased costs of production and transportation. Many households are also withholding cereal stocks for own consumption. In addition, in order to make more income, some households are waiting to sell their stocks until prices increase further.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 21 Issued October 15, 2008 Over the coming months, prices of cereals are expected to increase further due to the overall poor performance of Gu ‘08 season. Disruptions to market activities and restrictions to inter-regional trade due to civil insecurity combined with the devaluation of the SoSh will also contribute to cereal price increases. FSAU will closely monitor cereal market availability and prices in main markets in the coming months.

The decline in agricultural activities due to the Gu ‘08 crop failure in most parts of southern Somalia resulted in reduced employment and other income earning opportunities for poor households. However, labour opportunities in the Bay and Lower Shabelle regions improved in terms of harvesting, weeding, irrigating and protecting ﬁelds against pests (birds in particular). In all southern regions, loss of income crop production crop

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 22 Issued October 15, 2008 Table 9: Annual Cereal Balance Sheet – June 2008 to May 2009

Annual Cereal Balance Sheet for CEREAL BALANCE SHEET AT JULY ‘08 Somalia 100% Net Commercial Imports 75% Net Commercial Imports (June 2008 to May 2009) (‘000MT) (‘000MT) DOMESTIC AVAILABILITY 233 Opening Stocks1 27 Domestic Cereal Supply ’08/09 206 Gu 20082 85 Gu Karan 2008 Northwest3 10 Off-season Gu 20084 12 Estimated Deyr 08/095 99

DOMESTIC UTILISATION Cereal Utilization Requirements6 636 IMPORT REQUIREMENTS Anticipated Commercial Imports7 312 234

ESTIMATED SURPLUS/ national cereal balance sheet -91 -169 DEFICIT CEREAL Food Aid Distributed, Stocks Transit 241 241 and Pipeline8

WFP 146 146

CARE 96 96

ESTIMATED SURPLUS/ DEFICIT CEREAL 150 72

List of Assumptions and Calculations

1 Estimated opening stocks consists of commercial import stocks at ports to markets and carry over cereal availability The updated Cereal Balance Sheet uses as a rough estimate commercial stocks of 16,000 MT based on FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment, Sept 3, 1999. Includes 11,000 MT local production cereal stocks in Bay region as of July ’08. 2 2008 Gu Crop production estimates in Southern Somalia is 84,750 MT (rounded to 85,000 MT) includes 2,000 MT of rice. 3 Gu-Karan 2008 crop establishment projection for Northwest Somalia is 10,489 (rounded to 10,000MT). 4 Projected off-season Gu 08 crop maize estimate is 12,176 MT (rounded to 12,000 MT) based on Post harvest off-season assessment. 5 2008/9 Deyr Crop production estimates in Southern Somalia is 98,504 MT (rounded to 99,000MT). Estimated as Deyr PWA 1995-2007. 6 Total cereal utilization requirement composed of 600,000 MT food use, 3000MT feed use, seed losses which are 10 percent of the crop production (17,000 MT) and 16,000 closing stock (same as commercial opening stock). ‘Food use’ calculated based on assumption of total population of 7,502,654 (UNDP SOMALIA, 1st August 2006) and per capita cereal consumption of 80kg/year (1999 FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment, September 9, 1999). Per capita cereal consumption in Somalia is lower than would be dictated by the standard 2,100 kilocalorie per capita per day. The percentage of kilocalories from cereals needs further research. Feed use and seed losses based on estimates derived for Cereal Supply/Demand Balance, 1999/2000, FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment, September 9, 1999. 7 Anticipated commercial imports is estimated as 312,170 MT (Rounded to 312,000 MT), which is 75% of the sum of the three year (Aug04- Jul07) monthly averages minus the 2007 WFP Food aid rice & wheat imports of 12,857 MT. Data are from Berbera and Bossaso Official Port Import Statistics and, El-Ma’an and Jazira (Mogadishu) Port Figures collected by WFP. Estimated commercial imports consist of rice, wheat flour, and pasta. These are expressed in cereal equivalents with conversion factors of wheat flour = 1.33, pasta=2.00 and rice= 1. 8 In June and July ’08, WFP distributed 33,605MT of food in Somalia, 1,241 MT in transit and 101,616MT pipeline. In the same period, CARE distributed 3,420 MT of food in Somalia and had 84,550 MT in transit/pipeline as per scheduled arrivals. As of July ’08, WFP has 9,325 MT and CARE has 7,600 MT of stock.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 23 Issued October 15, 2008 3.4 LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION AND EXPORT

Background The livestock sector is the largest contributor to Somalia’s Map 8: Livestock Migration Trends July - Dec ‘08

Gulf of Aden ALULA economy. The majority of the Somali population relies DJIBOUTI ! 12°0'0"N 12°0'0"N KANDALA ZEYLAC BOSSASO! upon this sector and its related activities to maintain their ! LASQORAY !. !

LU GHAYE livelihood. Agro-pastoralists and pastoralists account ! ERIGABO !. BERBERA ! ISKUSHUBAN for 48% and 38% of the rural population, respectively. AWDAL! BARI ! SHEIKH SANAG !. ! ! EL AFWEIN BORAMAW. GALBEED ! BURAO GEBILEY !. BANDAR BEYLA OWDWEINE!. ! ! Camel, cattle, sheep and goats are the primary livestock ! HUDUN ! ! AINABA species in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones. ! SOOL 9°0'0"N TOGDHEER 9°0'0"N !. !. In a normal year, poor pastoralists receive 50%-80% of ! NUGAL !

their income from livestock and livestock product sales. !

! In addition, 25%-35% of their food comes from livestock GALKAYO !. ETHIOPIA

ABUDWAQ products. Pastoralists frequently experience shocks ! ADADO ! MUDUG 6°0'0"N 6°0'0"N such as livestock disease, recurrent conﬂict, drought, !. GALGADUD HOBYO ! hyperinﬂation, market disruptions and livestock export Indian Ocean EL BARDE ! !. EL BUR HARADHERE ! !

Rab DhuureBAKOOL trade bans all of which negatively affects their food and ! DOLO HUDUR ! !. TI EGLO BELET XAWA ! ! HIIRAN EL DER LU UQ WAJID ! ! ! ADAN YABAL livelihood security. ! BULO BURTI! GARBAHAREY JALALAQSI !. ! BAIDOA !. Mahaday Weyn QANSAH DERE ! M. SHABELLE ! BUR HAKABA JOWHAR EL WAQ ! ! !. !ADALE

3°0'0"N WANLA WEYN 3°0'0"N GEDO ! DINSOR BARDERA ! BAY BALAD Pasture and Water ! ! AFGOYE ! "/BANADIR QORYOLEY Rangeland conditions deteriorated further in the drought- ! !. ! M. JUBA L. SHABELLE! LEGEND ! KENYA BU'AALE !. SABLALE BRAVA affected areas of the Central, Hiran, and Bakool regions ! Livestock Migration Hagar !

JILIB Normal Opportunistic Migration and in the rain deﬁcit areas of Hawd LZ of Togdheer, L.JUBA! !

JAMAME ! Abnorrmal Migration

Sool, Nugal and Mudug regions, after another seasonal 0°0'0" KISMAAYO 0°0'0" !. rain failure. Other areas also adversely affected by the Abnormal Migration Indicators BADHADHE 1. Timing ! poor Gu ‘08 rains include Gedo, Bakool, the Sool plateau ± 2. Distance 5025 0 50 100 150 200 and the Gabi Valley LZ of Sanaag (Table 10, Map 3, 4, 3. Magnitude Kilometers

Datum: WGS84 and 5). Since Aug. ‘07, most poor and middle households 42°0'0"E 45°0'0"E 48°0'0"EData Source: FSAU, January, 2008 51°0'0"E Admin. layers: UNDP, 1998 3°0'0"S in these areas have had to resort to water trucking, and Food Security Analysis Unit - Somalia http://www.fsausomali.org P.O. Box 1230 Village Market, Nairobi, Kenya Email: [email protected] tel: 254-20-3745734 fax:254-20-3740598 FSAU is managed by FAO. The boundaries and names on these maps do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. many can no longer afford this due to high debts incurred The regional & District boundaries reflect those endorsed by the Government of the Republic of Somalia in 1986. from expensive water and food purchases over the last 12 months.

Poor rainfall during the Gu ‘07 and Deyr ‘07/08 seasons as well as this past Gu ‘08 caused most shallow wells within pastoral areas to dry up, forcing livestock migration to riverine areas of Gedo and Hiran regions, as well as the regions of Bay, Juba and the Shabelles. Rangeland in the W. Galbeed, Awdal, Shabelle, Bari, Bay and the Juba livestock production livestock production Table 10: Water, Pasture and Livestock Body Conditions by Region Water Pasture Region Body condition Migration pattern availability condition Cattle: Poor to Average Gedo Below Average Very Poor Abnormal: To Juba and Bay regions Camel & goats: Normal

Normal: livestock migrated to the South of Juba Valley for better Juba Valley Average Average Average for all species grazing. In migration from Gedo livestock are present in the region.

Bay: Average except Bay: Average however Average for all species Burhakaba Abnormal: Bakool livestock out migrated to Bay, Shabelle and Bay/Bakool browsing is Poor Except cattle in Bakool Bakool: Below Middle Juba. Bakool: Poor Is very poor. Average

Shabelle L. Shabelle: Average Average for all species but poor Abnormal: Adale and Adan Yabal districts’ livestock of Middle Average Valley M. Shabelle: Poor for cattle in Middle Shabelle Shabelle migrated to Lower Shabelle

Abnormal: migrated to El-barde/Bakool and the Majority Hiran Poor Poor to Average Poor to Average migrated to Wanlaweyn/L. Shebelle.

Galgaduud Abnormal: within the region due to insecurity, out migration to & south Very Poor Very Poor Very poor for all species neighbouring regions and Zone 5 of Ethiopia Mudug

Nugal/Bari: Average Abnormal: Out migration Mudug & Nugal and Normal: Bari. Bari: Average Nugal/ Poor in Nugal, Very Poor in Northeast Mudug: Poor to Very In migration: from Eastern Zone 5, Hawd Togdheer, Sool, Nugal Mudug: Very Poor Mudug and Average in Bari Poor & Nugal LZ.

Abnormal: Sool Plateau &Gabi Valley migrated to Bari. Hawd Northwest Poor to Average Poor to Average Average to Poor LZ migrated to western part of Zone 5/Ethiopia.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 24 Issued October 15, 2008 regions beneﬁtted from normal Gu ‘08 rainfall. In addition, good Hagaa rains were received in the south and good Karan rainfall occurred in the northwest, which replenished water catchments and shallow wells and subsequently improved rangeland conditions. However, the inﬂux of livestock from Kenya, Ethiopia, as well as other neighboring regions of Somalia, has put pressure on water and pasture resources.

Livestock Migration Abnormal livestock migration is ongoing in most of the country, with the exception of normal migration patterns in W. Galbeed, Awdal, Bari, Bay, the Shabelles, Juba and parts of Mudug (Map 8). In Galgadud, some livestock out-migrated to Hawd of Togdheer, Middle Shabelle and Zone 5 of Ethiopia; however, because many animals were physically unable to migrate due to weak body conditions, most herds were forced to remain within the region (El Bur district), where pasture conditions were extremely poor. Recent stability in Hiran, north Jowhar and Wanleweyn districts in Middle Shabelle have enabled livestock from Hiran (mainly cattle and small ruminants) to migrate to the Shabelle and Bay regions.

Table 11: Trends in Livestock, Production and Projected Herd Sizes Expected calv- Trends in Herd Size (Dec 08) Conception Calving/kid- Milk produc- Region ing/ kidding (Gu’08) ding (Gu’ 08) tion (Gu’08) Livelihoods Livestock species July-Dec’08 Camel: Decreased (Above Baseline) Southern Inland Sheep/goats: Decreased (Below Pastoral Baseline) Camel: Camel & Cattle Camel: Decreased (Above Baseline) Average to : Low to None Southern Agro- Cattle: Decreased (Below Baseline) Low to None Poor Cattle: Low to None for Gedo Sheep/goats: Pastoral Sheep/goats: Decreased (Below for all species Poor Sheep/ All species. Low Baseline) goats: None Camel: Increased (Above Baseline) Cattle: Increased (Below Baseline) Dawa Pastoral livestock production Sheep/goats: Decreased (Below Baseline) Cattle: Decreased (Below Baseline) Southeast Sheep/goats: Decreased (Below Pastoral Camel: Baseline) Average Camel: Increased (Near Baseline) Low for all Low for all spe- Low for All Spe- Southern Inland Juba Cattle: Sheep/goats: Decreased (Below species cies cies Pastoral Average Baseline) Cattle: Same (Below Baseline) Juba Agro- Sheep/goats: Same (Below Base- pastoral line) Camel: Decreased (Below Baseline) Bakool: Southern Bay: Medium Sheep/goats: Decreased (Below Bay: Medium Bay: Medium for Inland Pastoral for all species Bay: Average Baseline) for all species all species Bakool: Bay/ Bakool Bakool: Low Bakool: Very Camel: Decreased (Below Baseline) Bakool: Low for Low for All spe- to None for all Poor Bakool: Southern Cattle: Decreased (Below Baseline) all species cies species Agro-pastoral Sheep/goats: Decreased (Below Baseline) Camel: Me- Camel: Increased Camel : Medium dium Sheep/ Cattle: Low Cattle &Sheep: Decreased (high M/Lower Average for all Sheep/goats: Shabelle Agro- goats: Goats: Low deaths due to weak body con- Shabelle species Medium pastoral Medium Cat- Camel: Medium dition and cold Hagaa rains) Cattle: Low tle: Low Goats: Maintained the same Camel: None Camel: Decreased (Below Baseline) Cattle & Camel: Hawd Pastoral Cattle: None Camel & Cattle: Camel: None Cat- Goats: Decreased ( Below Baseline) Poor to None Hiran Sheep/goats: None Sheep/ tle: None Sheep/ Sheep/goats: Southern Inland Camel: Decreased (Below Baseline) None to Low goats: None goats: Low None Pastoral Goats: Decreased (Below Baseline) Camel: Decreased (Below Baseline) Camel: None Camel: None Camel: None Cat- Addun Pastoral Cattle: Decreased (Below Baseline) Galgaduud & Cattle: None Cattle: None Poor for all tle: None Sheep/ Goats: Decreased (Below Baseline) south Mudug Sheep/goats: Sheep/goats: species goats: Low to Camel: Decreased (Below Baseline) Low to None Low to None none Hawd Pastoral Goats: Deceased (Below Baseline) Camel: Decreased (Above Baseline) Hawd Pastoral Goats: Decreased (Below Baseline) In Mududg: Camel: Increased (Above Baseline) Camel: Low In Mudug & Low for all Nugal Pastoral Sheep/goats: Decreased (Above Sheep/Goats: Nugal: Low for Camel: None species. Baseline) Northeast Medium in Bari. all species Sheep/goats: In Bari: Camel: Decreased (below baseline) Low in Nugal In Bari: Medium to Low Camel: Low Sool Pastoral Sheep/goats: Increased (Above and Mudug Average Goats: High Baseline) Camel: Decreased ( Near Baseline) Addun Pastoral Sheep/goats: Decreased ( Near Baseline) Camel: Decreased (Above Baseline) Hawd Pastoral Sheep/goats: decreased (same as Baseline) Camel: increased (Above Baseline) Medium to Low Camel: Low to None for Guban/Golis Northwest Low for all Sheep/goats: Decreased (Below for all species Average to Low all species Pastoral Baseline) Camel: Decreased (Below baseline) Sool Pastoral Sheep/goats: Decreased (Below baseline)

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 25 Issued October 15, 2008 Herds of Sool and Gabi Valley LZs of the Sanaag region, Hawd plateau LZ of the Buhoodle/Togdheer, Sool, Nugal and Mudug regions and parts of the Addun livelihood zone of Mudug out-migrated to the Bari region. Coastal Deeh livestock of Adale and Adanyabaal districts of Middle Shabelle region are reported to have migrated to Lower Shabelle for better pasture. Bakool livestock out- migrated to Bay region and then some moved to Lower Shabelle. In the Gedo region, which received substantial rainfall at the start of the season, both pasture and water resources have depleted after the region experienced an influx of livestock from Kenya and Ethiopia. When water and pasture resources completely diminished in Gedo, Pastoralists bring breeding cattle for sale to the market livestock herds then migrated towards the Jubas. El Berde/Bakool, July ‘08 Figure 11: Regional Trend in Local Quality Goat Livestock Body Conditions and Herd Growth Prices Deterioration of pasture and water conditions in the 1,200,000 400,000 Sorghum Belt 350,000 drought-stricken regions of Central, Hiran and Bakool 1,000,000 Shabelle Valley Juba Valley 300,000 NorthEast and the rain deficit areas of northern Mudug, Togdheer, 800,000 Central 250,000 Nugal, Sanaag and Sool have led to significant deteriora- NorthWest - SLSH 600,000 200,000 tion in livestock body conditions and productivity. Cur- 150,000 400,000 Price per Head of Goat (SOSH) rently, livestock body conditions in most regions are very 100,000 Price per Head of Goat (SLSH) 200,000 poor to poor, with the exception of Awdal, W. Galbeed, 50,000

Bari, Shabelle, Bay, Gedo and Juba regions, where live- 0 0

stock body conditions are average to good due to overall improvement of pasture and water conditions in these Month areas. However, they are expected to deteriorate during Figure 12: Regional Trend Local Quality Cattle Prices the upcoming dry Hagaa season (Aug to mid- Oct). Cattle (SoSh/SlSh) from the Central, Hiran and Bakool regions experienced 1,200,000 400,000

the most signiﬁcant deterioration in body conditions due Sorghum Belt 350,000 1,000,000 Shabelle Valley

(SOSH) Juba Valley 300,000 to three successive seasons of poor rainfall, rendering t

oa NorthEast 800,000 G

f Central 250,000

them unable to migrate to areas with better pasture (Table o

d NorthWest - SLSH

ea 600,000 200,000 11). In drought-affected areas, the lack of pasture made H 150,000 ce per i

livestock, particularly small ruminants, more susceptible r 400,000 P 100,000 to disease and death. Price per Head of Goat (SLSH) 200,000

livestock exports 50,000 Livestock Production 0 0

Livestock reproduction is zero in the drought-affected Month regions. In the central and Hiran regions, camel and cattle calving rates during the Gu ‘08 were zero due to zero Figure 13: Regional Trend in Terms of Trade: conception of camel and cattle during Gu ‘07, Hagaa ‘07 Cereal to Goat and Deyrr ‘07. Sheep and goat kidding/ lambing rates are 400

low to zero due to zero conception rates ats in Deyrr ‘07. 350 Sorghum Belt Shabelle Valley In Bakool, livestock reproduction and production was 300 Juba Valley NorthEast low for all species due to the high number of deaths in 250 NorthWest Central Jilaal ‘08 and low conception rates during Gu ‘07 and 200

Deyrr ‘07. 150

100

Milk production, consequently, has further decreased in Kg Cereal per Goat (Local Quality) 50 the drought-affected regions to almost zero. In the rain 0 deﬁcit areas of the northern regions, both camel and

sheep/goats calving and kidding/lambing rates were also Month low due to low conception rates during Gu ‘07 and Deyr ‘07, resulting in lower milk production. In Bay region, camel, cattle and sheep/goats calving and kidding/lambing rates were medium, while in the Shabelle regions, camel calving was medium, but calving and kidding rates for cattle and goat were low due to medium to low conception rates in Deyr ‘07/08 for sheep/goats, in Gu/Hagaa ‘07 for cattle, and Gu ‘07 for camel. In the Jubas, although low calving/kidding rates were observed during Gu ‘08, medium calving rates during Gu ‘07 and Deyrr ‘07/08 have continued to contribute to average milk production. Calving and kidding rates are also expected to continue at low to medium levels to Dec ‘08 (Table 11).

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 26 Issued October 15, 2008 The FSAU Gu ‘08 pastoral herd dynamics analysis indicates a decreasing trend in herd sizes when compared to the end of Deyr ‘07/08 season (Dec ‘07). For example, in the drought-affected areas of central, Hiran, and Bakool, camel herd sizes declined by 12%-35%; cattle declined by 23%-58%; and sheep/goats declined by 17%-48% (Appendix 5.7). This is attributed to high abortion and death rates as well as to the additional off-take in sales to cover increasing water trucking costs and growing food prices. Similarly, the rain deﬁcit areas of Hawd, Golis/Guban pastoral, Sool and Gabi Valley are also showing a decreasing trend, although they have not yet fallen below baseline levels. The exceptions are Sool and Gabi Valleys, where camel and sheep/goat herd sizes have yet to recover from the 2004 drought. Camel populations did increase in the Sool plateau of Bari, the Southern Inland Pastoral LZ of Juba and Gedo and in the Dawa pastoral, Guban/Golis and Nugal Valley LZs (Appendix 5.7).

Disease Generally, there are no outbreaks of major livestock diseases. However, suspected cases of Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) are reported in the Sool plateau of Sanaag. Common diseases (i.e. tick born disease and endo-parasites) are widely reported in the drought-affected regions.

Southern Somalia Livestock Trade The cattle population in Southern Somalia comprises approximately three-fourths of the total cattle population in Somalia. Due to recurrent drought, the cattle population in the central and northern regions has been almost entirely decimated, with the exception of agro- pastoral areas.

Some southern Somalia cattle are trekked overland to livestock production Kenya as informal cross border trade, though many more cattle are traded internally for restocking or local consumption. The improvement of the Garissa/Kenya cattle trade has enhanced the food security situation of Very good pasture recovery Bargan/Jamame/L. Juba, June ‘08 the southern Somali pastoral livelihoods, except in the Bakool region, where drought caused a severe deterioration in livestock body conditions, subsequently lowering Figure 14: Berbera & Bossaso Livestock Exports (Heads) livestock market value. Other stakeholders in the cross and Export Quality Goat Prices (US$) border trade, including traders and service providers, 800 46 750 41 have also beneﬁtted from the improvement in cross 700 650 36

border trade. Generally, prices of all livestock species Thousands 600 550 31 throughout Somalia have steadily increased since Jan. 500 26 450 ‘07 and are higher than the 5-year average, primarily as 400 21 350 Camel Cattle 16 a result of the devaluation of the Somali Shilling, rising 300 Shoats Hargesia

Galkayo Bossaso Price Per Head (US$) Livestock Exports (Heads) 250 cereal prices, and general inﬂationary pressure. Burao 11 200 150 6 100 1 The average price of cattle from Jan ‘08 to July ‘08 in the 50 Juba, Shabelle and Sorghum Belt regions is 128%, 58% 0 -4

and 52% higher when compared to the Jan. to July 5-year Month averages (Figure 12). Although similar price increases occurred in the central regions in the last three months, Figure 15: Total Annual Livestock Exports compared to pastoralists have not beneﬁtted from these price increases 5-year Average 3,500,000

due to a lack of marketable cattle. In both the southern livestock exports 5-year Average and central regions. The average prices of local quality 3,000,000 goat in July ‘08 were 206% (Juba), 127% (Shabelle) and 2,500,000

57% (Sorghum Belt) higher when compared to the same 2,000,000

month last year (Figure 11) and while in the central, the 1,500,000 No. of Heads

average price of export quality goat in July ‘08 was 108% 1,000,000 higher when compared to July ‘07. 500,000

Terms of Trade (TOT) for livestock to cereals have fallen 0 since Jan ‘07 due to soaring cereal prices. The lowered TOT have severely undermined the purchasing power of poor households in all livelihoods. (FSAU Market Update, July 2008). In July ‘08, average prices of local cereal in the Sorghum Belt, Shabelle and Juba regions were 221%, 227% and 272% higher than Jan. ‘08 (Figure 13) prices, while local quality goat average prices were 42%, 90% and 65% higher when compared Jan. ‘08 prices, respectively.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 27 Issued October 15, 2008 Table 12: Livestock Exported from Berbera Port Table 13: Livestock Exported from Bossaso Port (Jan. - July ‘08) (Jan. - July ‘08)

2008 Livestock Exports Bossaso 2008 Livestock Exports Berbera Month Sheep/Goats Cattle Camel Month Sheep/Goats Cattle Camel Jan-08 24,600 8,022 2,917 Jan-08 15,321 4,930 1,299 Feb-08 40,100 11,157 2,911 Feb-08 55,508 7,691 3,248 Mar-08 47,980 5,380 2,090 Mar-08 33,823 5,671 2,590 Apr-08 42,670 3,455 2,722 Apr-08 26,549 4,115 2,140 May-08 50,050 4,250 1,420 May-08 46,076 3,485 1,620 Jun-08 92,156 7,104 3,508 Jun-08 44,512 4,097 1,475 Jul-08 89,280 4,417 4,395 Jul-08 69,409 8,480 4,114

Considerably larger increases in cereal prices signiﬁcant- Table 14: Exportation of Chilled Meat from Burao, Beletweyne, ly lowered the TOT between cereal and local quality goat, Mogadishu and Galkayo Abattoir (Jan. –July ‘08)

which declined by 61% (Sorghum Belt), 37% (Shabelle) Exportation of chilled meat from Burao, Beletweyne and 54% (Juba) from Jan ‘08 and July ‘08. Mogadishu and Galkayo

Burao Belet weyne Mogadishu Galkayo Northern Livestock Trade Month Abattoir Abattoir Abattoir Abattoir Overall, livestock export volumes in Gu ‘08 decreased due to livestock trade restrictions imposed by the Ethio- Jan-08 10000 Insecurity Insecurity 6979 pian authorities and the signiﬁcantly reduced availability of export quality livestock. This is caused by drought Feb-08 12,910 Insecurity Insecurity 8031 and successive seasons of rain failure in key pastoral Mar-08 13900 Insecurity Insecurity 7283

livelihood zones of the central and northern regions and Apr-08 24,788 Insecurity Insecurity 7586 neighboring Somali region in Ethiopia. Livestock exports from Jan. to July ‘08 through Berbera and Bossaso ports May-08 12,300 Insecurity Insecurity 6806 reached 796,737 heads of which 85% was sheep and Jun-08 13600 Insecurity Insecurity 6521 goats. This is 37% lower than the Jan.-July (‘04-07) aver- Jul-08 9300 Insecurity Insecurity 6067 ages (1,267,530 heads), one of the lowest export ﬁgures since 2001 (Table 12 and 13).

Insecurity in Hiran and Mogadishu forced the closure of the slaughter houses, signiﬁcantly reducing exports of chilled meat to the Gulf States from those areas. However, although export volumes decreased during Gu ‘08, in the last two months, there has been an overall increase in the volume exported. In the ﬁrst 7 months of 2008, the

livestock production livestock production Burao abattoir exported a total of 96,798 carcasses, which is 217% higher than the same period during ‘07 (30,548 heads), while Galkayo abattoir exported 49,273 carcass heads (Table 14).

Prices of all livestock species have increased when compared to the 5-year average; however, there is a slight decline in July when compared to June ‘08 in export quality goat prices in the central, northeast and northwest regions and in local quality goat prices in the central and northeast regions, which is a seasonal trend due to high tide (Hagaa monsoon). Similarly, cattle prices in the northwest regions have slightly declined due to the uncertainty of Karan rainfall levels. However, livestock prices are expected to increase during the Ramadan and Hajj period (September and December), as demand from both external and internal markets increases. Average Jan to July ‘08 prices of export quality goats in the northeast, northwest and central regions are 152%, 25% and 135% higher when compared to their respective 5-year averages (‘03-’07). However, average TOT for export quality goat to rice in the central, northwest and northeast regions are 64%, 49% and 64% lower when compared to the Jan to July five year average, respectively; this is due to a significant Jan. to July ‘08 average price increase of imported rice in the central, northeast and northwest regions (191%, 231% and 99% respectively) and a similar significant increase in local cereal prices in the central and northeast regions (270% and 243%) when compared to the Jan. to July 5-year average (‘03-07).

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 28 Issued October 15, 2008 3.5 MARKET ANALYSIS AND TRENDS

Over the last year, the escalating conflict and political Figure 16: Trends in Exchange Rates - SOSH and SLSH to USD instability has led to uncontrolled and excessive printing of the Somali Shilling, in large part to fund the growing 40,000 12,000 35,000 local conflict (see Civil Insecurity Section). As a result, 10,000 30,000 ar newly printed Somali Shilling notes have flooded the 8,000 25,000

markets, rapidly increasing the monetary supply and 20,000 6,000 SOSh per US Dollar SlSh per US Dollar causing serious devaluation of the Somali shilling, which 15,000 Baidoa - SoSh 4,000 hit record low levels of exchange - depreciating 165% 10,000 Bossaso - SoSh Galkayo - SoSh 2,000 since Jan. ‘07 (Figure 16). Since January of this year, the 5,000 Mogadishu - SoSh Hargesia - SlSh Somali shilling has depreciated an additional 50-65%. 0 0 In contrast, the Somaliland Shilling has remained fairly Month stable, although it lost value slightly from SlSh 6,000 per dollar in January to SlSh 6,228 in July, a 4% decrease.

Trade, transportation networks and economic activities also have been severely disrupted in most of the southern and central markets and at seaports due to civil instability. In Mogadishu, which is one of the epicentres of insecurity and a major trade transit point and economic business centre serving the south and central regions, the majority market analysis and trends of trade businesses remain closed. In addition, as a result of the escalating civil insecurity, renewed marine piracy, higher port tariffs, and a depreciated Somali Shilling (which makes imports more expensive), imported food commodities such as rice, sugar, vegetable oil and wheat ﬂour are in short supply. Cereal imports from January to July this year are estimated at 150,000 MT, which is 22% lower than the three-year average for the same period. Cereal imports are critical to Somalia’s overall cereal supply, as Somalia is a net importer of cereals, importing on average 60% of the country’s cereal requirements.

The combined impact of low imported commodity supplies, high global food and fuel prices, disrupted and costly trade and transportation of goods and the continued devaluation of the Somali shilling is fueling further price increases and hyperinﬂation of basic food and non-food items (Table 15). Rice prices have increased dramatically in all markets. For instance, in the main market of Merka in Lower Shabelle, the price of rice increased by 229%, from SoSh 13,000/ kg in Jan ‘08 to SoSh 42,750/kg in July ‘08 (Figure 10). In Dhusamareb, located in central Somalia, the price of rice increased by 167%, from SoSh 18,000/kg to SoSh 48,000/kg over the same time period. Similar trends were observed in Afmadow, Baidoa, Bardera, Jowhar, Beletweyne, and Galkayo.

In the northern markets of Erigavo and Burao, rice prices increased by 221% and 141%, respectively from Jan. ‘08 to July ‘08. When compared to the same period last year, rice prices more than tripled in most of the southern markets, as well as in the north. Prices of other imported commodities, such as sugar, wheat ﬂour and vegetable oil increased by similar margins. Fuel prices also remained at high levels in July, ranging from about Sosh 30,000 to SoSh 45,000 per litre in most of the Southern markets.

Table 15: Percent Price Increase Jan to July ‘08

Area Rice Sugar Petrol % of SoSh devaluation

Juba 224% 107% 88% 61%

Shabelle 225% 82% 71% 51%

Sorghum-belt 229% 124% 84% 56%

Central 191% 92% 97% 63%

Mogadishu 143% 76% 60% 51% Northeast 231% 100% 106% 65% Northwest 99% 13% 29% 4%

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 29 Issued October 15, 2008 3.6 NUTRITION OVERVIEW

An integrated analysis of the nutrition information collected from January to July 2008 indicates a varied nutrition situation throughout the country (Map 9 and 10). Civil insecurity and political insurgence in Mogadishu and most of South Central areas, the impacts of on-going displacement of people into neighbouring regions and the drought conditions in parts of South, Central, and the northwest and northeast regions are the key driving factors in the current analysis. In addition, hyperinﬂation of costs for basic food and non food items throughout the country is creating problems of food access for urban population, especially the urban poor, while morbidity and poor child care practices underpin the chronic sub-optimal nutrition situation in most rural Somali populations.

A total of 19 representative nutrition surveys were conducted by FSAU and partners to date in 2008, and 1 by ACF. Of these 20 surveys, 4 reported rates of global acute malnutrition (GAM) <15%, 8 reported rates from 15-20% with the remaining 8 reporting rates >20%. The median rate of acute malnutrition for all 20 surveys was A Mother and Child, Shabelle IDP Camp, 18.6%, an increase from 15.7% from the last round of comparable July 2008 surveys. Rates of severe acute malnutrition remained high in many parts, with a median rate of 2.5% for all 20 surveys. (Figure 18). However, crude and under five years mortality rates remained below the respective emergency thresholds of 2 and 4 deaths per 10,000 population per day. Based on the integrated analysis conducted, (ref Appendix for classification of Alert, Serious, Critical and Very Critical) survey results and the application of median rates, (referring to NCHS WHZ) approximately 180,000 children are estimated to be acutely malnourished in South Central Somalia and the IDP population in the north. Of the total acutely malnourished children, 26,000 are estimated to be severely malnourished. Over half of these children are in Shabelle and Central re- A water catchment in Hiran, Gu’08 gions. A summary of the key findings are presented nutrition overview below, with detailed analysis by region and livelihood within this update.

South Central The sustained Critical nutrition situation in South and Central Somalia is a result of cumulative shocks, including civil insecurity, political tension, hyper inﬂation and drought, that has led to loss of livelihoods and massive displacement of people within the region, thereby exerting pressure on the limited resources (water, pasture, food and health care). Humanitarian activities have also been minimized due to civil insecurity and political insurgence, further limiting access to basic resources. A summary of the key results are provided below:

From this analysis, of most concern is the deterioration in parts of the rural areas in the South, most marked in Bakool and Gedo Regions, which has resulted in rates of global acute malnutrition (GAM) of 24.1% and 25.5% in Bakool pastoral and agro-pastoral respectively, 22.3% in Wajid area and 23.3% and 21.5% in Gedo Pastoral and riverine livelihood zones, respectively, all of which are signiﬁcantly above the emergency threshold of 15% and indicate a Very Critical nutrition situation.

A Very Critical situation is also reported amongst Galkayo and Garowe IDPs with GAM rates of 21.1% and 22.6% respectively. Similarly, a sustained Critical nutrition situation prevails in the Central regions based on ﬁndings from assessments conducted in the Hawd and Addun pastoral LZ, however of concern are other indicators which are showing a likely deterioration in the situation.

The situation in the Shabelle regions including the IDPs in Afgoye and Merka, indicate sustained Critical rates with continuing excessively high rates of severe acute malnutrition (SAM) in the rural populations in excess of 3%. A lower rate of 1% of SAM was reported in the IDP populations, possibly linked to improved access to humanitarian interventions.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 30 Issued October 15, 2008 The nutrition situation deteriorated in the Juba Agro- pastoral livelihood zone from Serious in the Post Deyr ‘07/08 to Critical, with a GAM rate of 19.5% recorded. 30

25 Northern regions In the northwest region, there has been signiﬁcant de- 20 terioration in the nutrition situation from Alert in Janu- 15 ary 2008 (Post Deyr ‘07/08) to Critical levels across all 10 the livelihood zones with the exception of Nugal Valley and the agro-pastoral population who are in a Serious 5

phase, and the West Golis pastoral, currently in a sus- 0 tained Alert phase. For IDPs in the northwest region, the nutrition situation has also deteriorated from Serious in Hargeisa IDPs, and Critical in Berbera and Burao IDPs in the Post Deyr ‘07/08 to Very Critical levels. This is likely linked to the increasing pressure on poor households to access food in the urban centres with the continuing high food prices. In the northeast region, the nutrition situation in Sool Plateau and Karkar-Dharor pastoral livelihood zones remain in a sustained Alert phase, while the population in the Coastal Deeh is faced with a sustained Serious phase. However, there is deterioration in the Nugal Valley, Gagaab and East Golis from Alert in January 2008, to Serious. The key driving force in the northern regions are an emerging drought in pastoral areas and hy- perinﬂation leading to increasing food prices.

Urban Nutrition Analysis Rapid nutrition assessments were also conducted in 73 centres and settlements (52 of which were urban), in Somalia nutrition overview in July 2008 with a total of 8,864 children (6-59 months) assessed using Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC). Analysis of ﬁndings indicates a worrying situation in many centres, but as the sample sizes were not representative the results have not been published here. However, the information was used as one indicator as part of the overall integrated nutrition and food security analysis of the urban situation which is presented in the FSAU Food Security and Nutrition Brief.

Map 9: Somalia Estimated Nutrition Situation January 2008 Map 10: Somalia Estimated Nutrition Situation August 2008

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 31 Issued October 15, 2008 4. INTEGRATED FOOD SECURITY ANALYSIS

4.1 SOMALIA’S URBAN FOOD SECURITY CRISIS

In March ’08, FSAU conducted its first Rapid Emer- Table 16: Minimum Basket gency Urban Food Security Assessment to measure MINIMUM BASKET SOUTH CENTRAL/NORTH hyperinflation in Somalia’s markets and to ascertain its Minimum Food Cereal Urban Town Rural Town Urban Town Rural Town impact upon urban populations, particularly the urban Sorghum 95kg 95kg 95kg 95kg poor (See results in FSAU FSNB, May 9, 2008). In Wheat Flour 3.75kg 3.75kg 3.75kg 3.75kg Sugar 5kg 5kg 5kg 5kg June ‘08, FSAU once again conducted a rapid urban Vegetable Oil 4Lt 3Lt 4Lt 3Lt assessment to determine whether food access for urban Milk 15Lt x 20Lt x Meat 4kg 2kg 10kg 5kg populations had further deteriorated due to the ongoing Tea Leaves 0.5kg 0.5kg 0.5kg 0.5kg hyperinflation. In addition, to test the representativeness Salt 1.5kg 1.5kg 1.5kg 1.5kg of the March results, FSAU expanded its sample size Cowpeas 6kg x4.0kg x Minimum Non-Food for the June assessment from 29 urban and rural towns Kerosene 1.5Lt 1.5Lt 1.5Lt 1.5Lt to a total of 48 towns. Soap (Laundry Bar) 4pcs 4pcs 4pcs 4pcs Firewood 30 x 10 x Water (Jerican 20Lt) 5 5 5 5 To determine if the urban poor are coping with the hy- Human Drugs 20,000 10,000 20,000 10,000 School Fees 1 1 1 1 perinflation, FSAU developed a minimum expenditure Grinding Cost 30kg 30kg 9kg 13kg basket; calculated the cost of that basket (CMB) for Clothes 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 Social Tax 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 each town for three periods (Mar. ’07, Mar. ’08 and June Other (Specify) 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 ’08); and then collected information on actual household expenditure and income patterns, examining how both of these also changed over three periods. This analysis was then cross-referenced with other Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) reference outcome indicators to determine an IPC for Somalia’s urban populations. These indicators included the overall nutrition situation of urban populations, which includes current MUAC values, number of population displaced, the IPC of surrounding rural populations and the security situation.

Cost of the Minimum Basket (CMB) To measure price inflation, FSAU developed a minimum basket, consisting of essential basic food items such as sorghum, vegetable oil and sugar (comprising 2100k/cal/pp/d for a household of 6-7 for one month) and basic non-food items (i.e. water, kerosene, firewood), with slight variations to account for differences in expenditure patterns between regions and between urban and rural towns (Table 16). It then assessed the cost of the minimum basket (CMB) for each town surveyed during the three periods (Mar. ’07, Mar. ’08 and the expanded sample in June ’08), using FSAU/ FEWSNET main market/SLIMS data to confirm survey price data. urban assessment The analysis indicates significant increases in the cost of the minimum basket (CMB) over the three periods for both urban and rural towns. In one year, from Mar. ’07 to Mar. ’08, the average CMB increase was 85% for urban towns and 71% for rural towns, with the exception of the northwest (Figure 19 and 20). The significant increases in the CMB during this period were mostly attributed to large increases in the price of sorghum in most areas. Because sorghum constitutes the largest proportion of the minimum basket (approx. 50% - 60%), any fluctuations in its price will considerably affect the total CMB. Generally, those towns that had the highest sorghum prices in Mar. ’08 also had some of the largest CMBs; these included the northern towns of Erigavo, Bossasso, Saarmanyo and Garowe and the central towns of Abudwaq and Dusamareb.

From Mar. ’07 to Mar. ’08, the average price of sorghum increased by approximately 163%. There were comparable increases between urban and rural towns, which had average increases of 160% and 164%, respectively. The regions with the highest increases were Gedo and Bakool, which had some of the lowest sorghum prices in Mar. ’07, but due to increased demand caused by lowered production and reduced food aid, experienced considerable price increases in Mar. ’08. The average increase just for the Gedo and Bakool regions was 317%. Although these regions saw the highest average increases in sorghum prices, representing the highest rates of inﬂation, they did not have the largest CMBs. This is because sorghum prices in those regions in Mar ’08 were still lower when compared to the north and central regions.

In just over a three month period, from Mar. ’08 to June ’08, similar dramatic increases in the CMB were observed, once again due mostly to significant increases in sorghum prices. The average increase in sorghum prices from Mar. ’08 to June ’08 was about 93%. In urban towns, the average increase in sorghum prices was 112%; while in rural towns, it was 75%, indicating higher inflation rates for sorghum in urban areas. The regions with the highest sorghum prices and subsequently the largest CMBs in June ’08, were Sool, Sanaag, Bari and Nugaal. High sorghum prices in those regions were mostly attributed to heightened conflict between Somaliland and Puntland during that month. The conflict inter- rupted cereal supplies throughout the northeast, where many towns have become reliant upon cereal imports due to re-

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 32 Issued October 15, 2008 cent drought. Adding to the Figure 19: Total Cost of Minimum Expenditure Basket for Rural Towns (March '07, substantial increase in March '08 and June '08) 4000000 1000000 sorghum prices was the Percentage Change in CMB-Rural % Change % Change Currency 900000 excessive printing of cur- 3500000 Mar 07 - Mar 08 Mar 08 - Jun 08 Somaliland Shillings 27% 16% rency that occurred in those Somali Shillings 71% 53% 800000 3000000 regions from Mar. ’08 to 700000

June ‘08. In some cases, 2500000 600000

there was signiﬁcant vari- SLSH 2000000 500000 O SH ability in the CMB between S 400000 towns in the same region. 1500000 Again, this was due mostly 300000 1000000 to variations in the price of 200000

500000 sorghum. Regions with the 100000

greatest variability were 0 0 Rako Elbur Sool, Sanaag, Bari and Dolo Adale Gadon Hudun Halgan Jariban Dhahar El Adde Badhan Adadley El Berde Dhobley Jalalaqsi Suqsade Garadag Kalabayr Boodhley Qalawiley Sarmanyo Lawyaddo Hasbahalle Dhoqoshay Harardhere Garbodadar Mudug. The average dif- Garasweyne ference in sorghum prices North Central South North(SlSh) SO Shs - Minimum Basket (March 2007) SO Shs - Minimum Basket (March 2008) SO Shs - Minimum Basket (June 2008)

within region for the north- SL Shs - Minimum Basket (March 2007) SL Shs - Minimum Basket (March 2008) SL Shs - Minimum Basket (June 2008) east, central and south was about 4,600 Somali shil- Figure 20: Total Cost of Minimum Expenditure Basket for Urban Towns (March '07, lings and for the northwest, March '08 and June '08) 5000000 Percentage Change in CMB-Urban 1600000 about 1,900 Somaliland % Change % Change 4500000 Currency Mar 07 - Mar 08 Mar 08 - Jun 08 1400000 shillings. Somaliland Shillings 15% 41% 4000000 Somali Shillings 85% 54% 1200000 The variability in regional 3500000 1000000 urban assessment sorghum prices was at- 3000000 2500000 800000 SL SH SL tributed mostly to acces- SO SH 2000000 sibility. Towns that were 600000 1500000 more isolated from ma- 400000 jor markets generally had 1000000 200000 higher sorghum prices due 500000 mainly to the high costs of 0 0 Luq Buale Wajid transporting commodities Burao Wajale Afgoye Baidoa Merka Merka Jawhar Erigabo Borama Berbera Lasanod Garowe Garowe Galkayo Galkayo Bossasso Hargeysa Bardhere Abudwaq Beletweyn Qoryooley Qoryooley there. For instance, in the Dusamareb rural town of Rako, which North Central South North(SlSh) is located in an isolated SO Shs - Minimum Basket (March 2007) SO Shs - Minimum Basket (March 2008) SO Shs - Minimum Basket (June 2008) SL Shs - Minimum Basket (March 2007) SL Shs - Minimum Basket (March 2008) SL Shs - Minimum Basket (June 2008) area of the Bari region, the price of sorghum in June ’08 was Sosh 29,000/kg. In the same region, however, in the rural town of Kalabyr, which is located not far from the main market of Bossasso, the price of sorghum was Sosh 20,500/kg, almost a Sosh 9,000 difference.

In the northeastern, central and southern regions, the average CMB increase from Mar. ’08 to June ’08 was 53% (urban and rural towns), with the largest increases occurring in urban towns. The highest CMB increases occurred in the urban towns of Qoryoley (105%), Beletweyne (75%) and Garowe (75%); and in the rural towns of Qaliwiley (87%) and Hasbahalle (63%). Even in the northwest, where it is generally more stable, there were increases in the CMB, particularly in the towns of Boroma and Boodhley. The average increase in the CMB for the northwest for both urban and rural towns was 29%. From Mar. ’07 to Mar. ’08, there was a larger average increase in the CMB in urban towns (85%) than in rural towns (71%); however, from Mar. ’08 to June ’08, this difference completely diminished, as an average CMB increase of about 53% was recorded for both, indicating similar levels of hyperinﬂation between urban and rural towns. In addition, the average monthly rate of increase in the CMB more than doubled between the two periods. From Mar. ’07 to Mar. ’08, the average monthly rate of increase in the CMB for urban towns was 7% and for rural towns, 6%; however, from Mar. ’08 to June ’08, the average monthly rate for both urban and rural towns was 18%, which further demonstrates the extent of the hyperinﬂation in Somalia.

As part of its urban analysis, FSAU used average income levels of poor households to calculate minimum basket expenditure gaps (the amount of the minimum basket households are unable to afford) for each town. Although FSAU is still in the process of developing its methodology, the June ’08 expenditure gap analysis revealed a signiﬁcant decline in purchasing power for the urban poor in the northern regions of Sool, Sanaag and Bari, the central region of Galgudud and in Gedo and Shabelle regions. The highest expenditure gaps recorded in the towns of Lasanod (-42%), Erigavo (-44%), Abudwaq (-33%) and Afgoi (-32%), indicating a serious inability on the part of the urban poor to cope with the hyperinﬂation in these areas.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 33 Issued October 15, 2008 Access to Income An analysis of income data demonstrates that average wage levels have increased steadily since March ’07 (Table 17). The average wage rate for labour activities increased approximately 51% from Mar ’07 to Mar. ‘08 and then an additional 26% from Mar. ’08 to June ’08. These increases however, have proven insufﬁcient in meeting the demands placed upon poor households by the increasing commodity prices, particularly sorghum. In addition, although average wage levels increased, labour availability did not, as the average number of days worked in June ’08 was consistent with Mar. ’07 and Mar. ’08 averages. The regions with the least labour availability were Sool and Sanaag, which suffered as a result of heightened conﬂict between Somaliland and Puntland in June. Worst-affected was the town of Lasanod, where poor households reported zero income from labour activities. Other regions where both wage rates and labour availability were low were Gedo and Galgadud.

With income unable to match commodity price increases Table 17: Income Analysis alone, many households have had to resort to multiple Mar ’07-Mar Mar ‘08-June June ’07- coping mechanisms, particularly financial assistance, in ‘08 ‘08 June ‘08 Labour wage order to meet their basic food requirements. The most 51% increase 26% increase x common forms of financial assistance are remittances rates Labour avail- and cash gifts, both of which have increased gradually 0% change 19% increase x ability since Mar. ‘07. From Mar ‘07 to Mar ‘08, average remit- tance levels increased by 21%. From Mar. ’08 to June Remittances 21% increase 17% increase x ’08, there was a similar average increase of 17%, which Cash gifts 42% increase 167% increase x demonstrates the rapidly increasing need on the part of 53% Cash Loans x x the poor for financial support. increase

Another strong indication of the poor’s inability to cope at current income levels is the increase in cash gifts over the three periods. From Mar. ’07 to Mar. ’08, average cash gifts increased by 42%. However, in just over a three month period, from Mar. ’08 to June ’08, the average increase was approximately 167%, a sign of considerable stress. Re- gions where both remittances and cash gifts were most prevalent were Sool, Sanaag, Bakool and Nugaal. The level of debt incurred by urban and rural poor households has also increased over the past year. From June ’07 to June ’08, the average increase in cash loans was 53%. Although most cash loans received by poor households are provided by relatives, there is still an expectation that loans will be repaid; the same goes for any commodities borrowed on credit. Currently, most poor households are unable to repay their debts. If this continues, the level of cash loans and credit will decrease as relatives and traders will be less willing to provide support.

Urban Integrated Phase Classiﬁcation (IPC) FSAU ﬁrst developed an urban IPC in Mar. ’08. Urban IPC phases are designated based on a convergence of evidence

urban assessment across IPC reference outcomes. These include nutrition indicators (urban MUAC values and rural nutrition status), food access indicators (CMB, expenditure gap, food and petrol prices and income access), civil insecurity indicators (UN security phase levels), use of coping mechanisms (remittances, cash gifts and loans) and level of displacement (number of IDPs). Cross-tabulation of these indicators can be found in the Urban IPC Matrix (Appendix 5.6).

An analysis of urban IPC indicators revealed that the food security situation for urban populations had deteriorated since March ‘08 (Map 11 A). The total number of the urban population currently in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) and Humanitarian Emergency (HE) is 705,000, a 22% increase when compared to Mar. ’08 estimates. Eighty-eight percent of the total number of urban people in crisis is poor, with 480,000 urban poor in AFLC and 140,000 in HE. The largest concentration of urban population in crisis is found in the southern regions (53%), where civil insecurity is most prevalent and cereal production is low due to ongoing drought. The Gedo and Bakool regions in particular have experienced signiﬁcant deterioration, demonstrated foremost by a deterioration in malnutrition levels from Critical to Very Critical (Post Deyr ‘07/08 to Post Gu ’08). In addition, high inﬂation rates and low labour availability, especially in Gedo, have contributed to a decline in purchasing power for the urban poor in those regions. The situation in the Shabelle regions is also critical as the largest concentration of expenditure gaps as well as the lowest level of remittances/cash gifts was recorded there. The towns of Mogadishu and Afgoi, which had two of the highest MUAC values, remain in a state of HE, while the remainder of the south, with the exception of IDP concentrated areas, remains in AFLC.

In the northeast, which comprises 18% of urban poor in crisis, there was a signiﬁcant deterioration in food security, exempliﬁed by several indicators. The highest sorghum prices and largest CMBs were found in the Sool, Sanaag, Bari and Nugaal regions. In Sool and Sanaag, the lowest labour rates and highest levels of remittances/cash gifts were recorded. In addition, the towns of Erigavo and Lasanod had two of the highest expenditure gaps as well as the two of the highest MUAC values. These factors, combined with Serious to Critical malnutrition levels, caused both Erigavo and Lasanod’s urban poor to deteriorate into the category of HE and resulted in Bari and the remaining parts of Nugaal to deteriorate from Borderline Food Insecure (BFI) to AFLC. The entire northeast is now in AFLC.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 34 Issued October 15, 2008 In the northwest (approx. 20% in Map 11 A: SOMALIA INTEGRATED PHASE CLASSIFICATION MAP, crisis), the food security situation Urban and IDP Populations, Projections July - Dec. '08 also deteriorated, owing mostly to hyperinﬂation, which has affected towns that are typically more eco- nomically stable such as Hargeisa, Boroma and Berbera. Urban towns in the northwest experienced some of the highest inﬂation in sorghum prices, with an average increase of over 200%. Expenditure gaps were recorded in both Boroma and Berbera, and in Hargeisa, a decline in the average income level considerably reduced the purchasing power of the urban poor. In addition, the nutritional status of IDPs (who comprise a portion of the urban poor) in Hargeisa, Berbera and Burao deteriorated from Seri- ous to Critical in Deyr ‘07/08 to Very Critical in Gu ’08. With the exception of Boroma and Berbera, where urban poor are in AFLC, the northwest remains in BFI. urban assessment

In the central regions, representing 8% of urban poor in crisis, there was also considerable deterioration in the food security situation. Sorghum prices in the central regions were the second highest after the northwest. The towns of Galkayo, Abudwak and Dusamareb had signiﬁcantly high CMBs, and one of the highest expenditure gaps was recorded in Abudwak. In addition, Belet Weyne and Dusamareb had two of the highest MUAC values. Dusamareb deteriorated from Serious to Critical levels of malnutrition in Gu ’08 and therefore remains in HE, while the remainder of central remains in AFLC.

Overall, FSAU’s urban analysis revealed a significant deterioration in the food security situation for many urban and rural towns from Mar ’08 to June ’08 due to a combination of drought, crop failure, rising conflict and hyperinflation of food and fuel prices. To contend with the hyperinflation, the urban poor employed various coping mechanisms including reducing quantities purchased, switching to cheaper cereals, skipping meals, selling essential livelihood assets and seeking additional remit- Typical Somali Bazaar tances, food aid and gifts. However, despite the use of such coping strategies, many were still unable to meet their basic food needs. In addition, many found themselves severely indebted, leaving them significantly vulnerable to any future food price increases. The growing urban food security crisis in Somalia is likely to worsen over the coming months, making it more difficult for the urban poor to cope. FSAU will continue to monitor the impact of hyperinflation upon urban populations on a quarterly basis.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 35 Issued October 15, 2008 COMPARISON OF CURRENT FOOD SECURITY AND NUTRITION SITUATION TO ‘91-92 SOMALIA FAMINE

The rapidly deteriorating food security situation in Somalia has led to speculation about the possibility of another famine. Gu ’08 seasonal rains failed throughout the southern and central regions, as well as in parts of the north. Drought is widespread in central and southern Somalia, and crop failure occurred in the regions of Gedo, Bakool and Middle Juba. In addition, rampant civil insecurity has signiﬁcantly disrupted trade and market activities and has resulted in a considerable increase in the number of IDPs, placing further strain upon already limited local resources and subsequently increasing the need for food assistance. Although the current food security situation in Somalia is critical, an assessment of food security and nutrition indicators re- veals signiﬁcant differences between current conditions and the circumstances surrounding the ‘91-92 famine, leading FSAU to conclude that during the period of July-Dec. ’08 there is no early warning for an IPC Phase 5 of Famine/Humanitarian Catastrophe (Table 18).

Civil Insecurity Although the security situation in Somalia has deteriorated signiﬁcantly in the past year, it does not parallel the scope and intensity of the ’91-92 conﬂict. The ’91-92 famine was largely the result of an intense civil war fueled by two major feuding factions and several power-driven clan-based rivalries. Particularly damaging to the country at the time was the widespread looting, destruction and withholding of food stocks and assistance by all parties, as well as the prevention of agricultural activities by some groups seeking to starve the opposition. A total breakdown of security in Mogadishu, particularly at its port, along with the closure of other major ports, further obstructed food supplies. In addition, humanitarian access to the worst-affected areas was severely limited as aid workers were under constant threat of intimidation, extortion, kidnapping and death.

Currently, incidents of killings, kidnappings and looting are far lower, and reports of rape, used frequently as a tool of war in the ‘91 conflict, are few. During the ’91 conflict, civilian population movement was severely restricted due to rampant insecurity, which limited the population’s ability to access food assistance. Currently, such restrictions are minimal as most populations are able to flee violence and migrate according to their needs.

Humanitarian Assistance Although the number of IDPs has increased over the past year, the availability of humanitarian assistance for IDPs is far greater than that during the ’91-92 crisis. The higher levels of availability/access to humanitarian aid for both IDPs and the remaining population are attributed mostly to comparatively lower levels of violence. Though attacks against aid workers have increased steadily since January ’08, the number of incidents is still considerably lower when compared to ’91-92. Furthermore, there has been a vast improvement in aid delivery systems and programs throughout the past 15 years, which has created multiple avenues of assistance.

Nutrition Situation During the 1991-92 famine, excessively high rates of acute malnutrition of 40-70% were reported in the under 5 years population in certain locations in Southern Somalia (Gedo, Bay, Bakool and Hiran). Of great concern is the index used during these times, which was the percent of the reference median, which classiﬁes fewer children as acutely malnourished compared to the

urban assessment standard index now used of Z scores. Therefore compared to current rates, the proportions affected during that time could have been much higher than reported. The crude mortality rates (CMR) during that time ranged from 7.3 to 23.4 deaths per 10,000 population per day, well in excess of the alert threshold of 1 and the emergency threshold set at 2 deaths per 10,000/day. The main reported causes of death were related to disease outbreaks such as diarrhea and measles, which is very common in starving displaced populations—the resilience to ﬁght infection in displaced populations is limited and disease transmission is high due to overcrowding in camps. In total, an estimated 300,000 people are thought to have died from the famine. When compared to other global famines such as the Chinese Famine from 1958 to 1961, where an estimated 30 million died, the absolute numbers of deaths may seem small; however, when compared to the proportion of the population affected, the ‘91 -92 Somalia famine is considered one of the worst of the 20th century.

Current levels of acute malnutrition, although serious and deteriorating in some regions, do not parallel levels recorded during the ’91-92 famine. Currently, the median rate of GAM (WHZ) in South Central Somalia is 18.7% with a range of 12-35% in parts. And although the number of deaths has increased slightly due to recent conﬂict, the current CMR is less than the emergency threshold of 2 deaths per/10,000population per/day.

Hyperinflation Despite recent hyperinflation, the average increase in sorghum prices over the last year (200% increase) does not correspond to the average increase from ’90 to ’91, which was over 600%. Hyperinflation of food prices in ’91-92 resulted from a combination of low cereal production, the looting and destruction of cereal stocks/assistance, the purposeful withholding of cereal supplies by merchants seeking to drive up prices, and the complete collapse of the local currency. While the recent hyperinflation in Somalia is at least partly attributed to the overall low cereal supply, the main contributing factors are the increase in global food and fuel prices and the continuing depreciation of the Somali shilling, caused by widespread, non-government sanctioned currency printing. Although the exchange rate of the Somali shilling to the US dollar has increased by 150% over the past two years, the current rate of increase does not match the increase from ’90 to ’92, which was approximately 800%. In addition, there have been recent efforts by the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) to control inflationary rates, which include a government ban on money printing and a proposed plan to print a new currency in the near future.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 36 Issued October 15, 2008 Agriculture and Livestock Another major contributing factor to the ’91-92 famine was the occurrence of drought throughout the southern and central regions. Recurrent lack of rainfall resulted in complete crop failure in the Sorghum Belt, with a 63% decrease in total annual sorghum production from ’90 to ’92. In addition, large numbers of livestock perished during this time due to severe water and pasture shortages, the inability of populations to migrate due to civil insecurity and prevalent livestock disease (Rinderpest). An estimated 50% to 70% of livestock was lost in the southern and central regions in ’91, which signiﬁcantly reduced the number of livestock exports that year. The combination of livestock herd depletion, total crop failure and the looting/destruction of assets and assistance completely devastated livelihoods within the southern and central regions and eventually led to mass starvation.

Although presently the central and southern regions are experiencing drought, and crop failure has occurred in parts of Gedo, Ba- kool and Middle Juba following another seasonal rain failure (Gu ’08), the effects of such events have been mitigated by average levels of cereal production in the Bay and Shabelle regions (93% of the PWA), the continued availability of cereal stocks, and the ability of populations to seek out assistance and to migrate to areas with water and pasture.

Table 18: Current Situation compared to 1991-92 Famine - No Early Warning of Famine during Period of July-Dec. ’08

1991-92 Famine Current Situation 2008 Civil Insecurity • Intense large scale civil war • Smaller scale of civil conﬂict • Intense power-driven clan rivalry • Clan rivalry with cross-cutting political divisions • Closure of ports due to insecurity • Most major ports continue to function • Mass looting and destruction of assets/cereal stocks • No mass looting/destruction of cereal/stocks • Forced prevention of agricultural activities to starve opposition • Opportunity for civilian movement • Severely restricted movement Humanitarian Assistance

• Greater access to humanitarian assistance due to lower levels of • Severely limited food assistance due to civil insecurity insecurity and well-developed aid systems and programs

Nutrition Situation urban assessment

• GAM (WHM< -2 zscore) 40-70% • GAM (WHZ< -2 zscore) 13.4-25.2% • CMR 7.3-23.4/10,000/day • CMR <2/10,000/day • Human and livestock disease (Measles/Rinderpest) • No reports of major disease outbreak

Hyperinﬂation • 600% increase in sorghum price from ‘90-92 • 200% increase in sorghum price since 2007 • Devaluation of SoSh: 800% from ‘90-92 • Devaluation of SoSh: 150% since 2006

Agriculture • Total cereal crop failure (Sorghum Belt); 63% decrease in • Average to good cereal production in Bay and L. Shabelle regions sorghum production from ’90-92 • Cereal stocks available • No cereal stocks available • 84,750 Mt of cereal production in Gu ‘08 Livestock • Although high levels of off-take, no mass loss of livestock • 50-70% livestock loss due to deaths in Central/South • Increase in livestock exports since 2005 • Average 78% decrease in livestock exports • Almost 3 million livestock exports in Gu ‘08; 22% higher than 5-year Mitigating Factors • Signiﬁcantly increased remittances/social support • Limited to zero access to remittances • Greater money accessibility due to well-developed money transfer • No money transfer systems available systems • Lack of legitimate employment • More labour/employment opportunities • Improved communication systems

Additional Mitigating Factors There are a series of additional factors that have helped mitigate the effects of the current economic instability in Somalia. Perhaps most important is the widespread establishment of money transfer systems, which did not exist at the time of the ’91-92 famine. These systems have increased money flow throughout the country, allowing the poor far greater access to remittances. The existence of a strong Diaspora, which is comprised mostly of Somalis who fled the ’91-92 crisis, has also increased the level of remittances. Another major mitigating factor is the continued availability of labour and employment opportunities. Prior to 1991, a large percentage of the population was employed by the government. After the government collapsed as a result of the conflict, hundreds of thousands lost their jobs. No longer able to depend upon the government for work, some Somalis turned to criminal activities out of desperation, while many others established private businesses. The development of the private sector over the last fifteen years has created employment and labour opportunities not available at the time of the famine and has subsequently provided alternative income-generating means for populations whose livelihoods have been threatened by the deteriorating conditions.

The recent deterioration in the food security situation in Somalia is alarming, and its severity has prompted serious discussion about a possible famine. While there are some parallels to the ’91-92 crisis, a thorough evaluation of food security and nutrition indicators demonstrates strong dissimilarities between conditions during the two periods, particularly with regards to mitigating factors. Although the effects of the growing food security crisis in Somalia have been countered somewhat by the presence of these mitigating factors, assistance is still needed in order to prevent current conditions from further deteriorating.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 37 Issued October 15, 2008 4.2 SOMALIA’S RURAL FOOD SECURITY CRISIS This section outlines the rural food security situation and presented as eight regional subsections (sections 4.2.1 – 4.2.8). The overall rural food security crisis (Map 11B), shows a deteriorating situation compared to the post Deyr ‘07/08 analysis. The combined urban, rural and IDP Integrated Food Phase Classiﬁcation analysis is presented in Map 1 and the urban Integrated Food Security Phase Classiﬁcation is presented in Map 11A.

Map 11 B: SOMALIA INTEGRATED PHASE CLASSIFICATION MAP, Rural Populations, Projections July - Dec. '08

Defining Attributes of Crisis Areas in Phase 3, 4 or 5 -100% 41°0'0"E 44°0'0"E 115,00047°0'0"E 50°0'0"E Population in Phase (Includes High Risk) -100% 10,000 i, ii, iii 0-100,000 101,000-500,000 >500,000 i, ii, iii a, d, f, h, i Magnitude -100% f, h, i A, B, C Percent population B in respective phase Low Gulf of Aden Depth

12°0'0"N Low Calula 12°0'0"N * * * -0% -0% * * -0% BOSSASO !. Criteria for Social Targeting Qa ndala Livelihood system Wh o i Las Qoray/ Zey lac ii Wealth group Badhan Bossaaso iii Gender Lughaye ERIGABO Key Immediate Causes AWDAL !. a Drought Baki Iskushuban b Floods Borama Berbera SANAG c Tsunami BORAMA Ceel Afweyne BARI d Civil Insecurity !. W. GALBEED Sheikh Ceerigaabo e Market Disruptions Ge bile y HARGEYSA BURAO Wh y f Disease Outbreaks !. !. g Population Influx Qa rdho Hargeysa Owdweyne Xudun Bandar Beyla h Inflation Caynabo Ta l e x i Water Shortages TOGDHEER Key Underlying Causes Burco SOOL A Post State Conflict B9°0'0"N Environmental Degradation Laas Caanood Ga rowe 9°0'0"N C Social Marginalization Buuhoodle !.LAS ANOD !.GAROWE Recurrence of Crisis in Past 10 yrs Low(1-2yrs), Moderate(3-4), High (>= 5) Eyl -100% Frequency NUGAL 25,000 Confidence Level of Analysis Burtinle -100% i, ii, iii Low Medium High 180,000 * * * * * * a, d, f, h, i

Confidence i, ii, iii Galkacyo Jariiban A, B, C a, d, e, f, g, h, i Goldogob -100% Low 160,000 A, B, C !.GALKAYO * * * -0% i, ii, iii Moderate a, d, e, h, i * * * -0% A, B, C Cadaado MUDUG Moderate -100% Cabudwaaq Hobyo 6°0'0"N 100,000 * * * -0% DUSAMAREB 6°0'0"N i, ii, iii !. Dhusa Mareeb Indian Ocean a, d, e, f, h, i A, B, C GALGADUD southern somalia High BELET WEYNE Harardheere -100% Ceel Barde Beled!. Weyne 265,000 * * * -0% Ceel Bur BAKOOL i, ii, iii Rab- Xudur a, d, e, g, h, i Dhuure !.HUDUR HIIRAN Ceel Dheere A, B, C Dolo Luuq High Wajid Bulo Barde Aden Yabal * * * -0%

GARBAHAREY Ta y e gl o w Baydhaba Jalalaqsi !. BAIDOA Cadale Garbaharey Beled Hawa !. Qa nsa x JowharM. SHABELLE Wanle Weyne!.JOWHAR

3°0'0"N Dheere 3°0'0"N GEDO BAY Ceel Waq Bur Hakaba Balcad Current or Imminent Phase Dinsor Afgoye BANADIR Baardheere 1A Generally Food Secure Qoryoley Sakow Marka!. -100% 1B Generally Food Secure Kurtun Warrey 475,000 M. JUBA BU'AALE Sablale 2 Borderline Food Insecure !. L. SHABELLE i, ii, iii Bu'aale Brava a, d, e, g, h 3 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis

KENYA A, C 4 Humanitarian Emergency L. JUBA Low Afmadow Jilib 5 Famine/Humanitarian Catastrophe * * * -0% Risk of Worsening Phase Jamaame Watch .Coloured diagonal lines indicate shift in Phase 0°0'0" KISMAAYO Moderate Risk 0°0'0" Kismayo !. .Black lines indicate worsening High Risk magnitude only

Badhadhe Projected Trend Improving Situation Worsening Situation -100% 65,000 No Change Mixed Situation i, ii, iii Sustained Phase 3, 4 or 5 for > 3 yrs a, d, e, h ± A, B, C 030609012015015 NOTES: 1. Estimated populations do not include IDP or Urban estimates, and are High Ki lometer s rounded to the nearest 5,000 -0% 2. For category explanations see http://www.fsausomali.org * * Datum: WGS84, Data Source: FSAU, 2007, Admin. layers: UNDP, 1998, 41°0'0"E 44°0'0"E 47°0'0"E Updated: Nov,50°0'0"E 2007

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 38 Issued October 15, 2008 4.2.1 Gedo Region Map 12: Gedo Region Overview Livelihood Systems The overall food and livelihood security situation of Gedo region has deteriorated by varying degrees in the north and south in the last six months. The number of people in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) or Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) is 130,000. About 20,000 of the total number of riverine, agro-pastoral and pastoral people, mostly located in northern Gedo, are in a state of HE, while 110,000 people from all livelihood zones (LZs), including 30,000 urban poor, are in a state of AFLC (For disaggregation of numbers by phase, administrative boundaries as well as by livelihood zones see Tables 19 and 20 below). These figures indicate that the number of affected population requiring assistance has almost tripled, from 45,000 in Jan.’08 to 130,000 in July’08. The deterioration is most significant in the Dawa Pastoral, Southern Agro-pastoral and Juba pump irrigation livelihoods both LIVELIHOOD SYSTEMS PASTORALISTS in north and south Gedo. AGRO-PASTORALISTS RIVERINE The recent deterioration is the result of below average rains over several poor seasons and limited access to cereal supplies, following a number of successive crop failures. Gu ‘08 cereal production in both riverine and agro-pastoral areas is estimated at 15% of the PWA (Post War Average) and 31% of the five- Map 13: Food Security Phase Classification - Gedo. year average (2003-2007). In pastoral and agro-pastoral zones, poor Gu ‘08 rains that followed several seasons Current or Imminent Phase 1A Generally Foodi, ii, iiiSecure a, d, e, f, g, h, i d, e, f, h, i A, B, C A, B Low 1B Generally FoodLow Secure * * * -0% of below average precipitation, has resulted in exhausted * * -0% pasture resources (prompting large numbers of livestock 2 Borderline Food Insecure southern somalia 3 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis to out-migrate during the middle of the rainy season to 4 Humanitarian Emergency the Juba regions), low livestock productivity, and reduced 5 Famine/Humanitarian Catastrophe Urban Rural To t a l -100% Rural: 180,000 Risk of WorseningUrban: Phase25,000 IDP: 50,000 . i, ii, iii herd sizes due to high off-take. Most importantly, the on- Coloureda, d, e, f, g, h, i diagonal lines indicate Watch shiftA, B, inC Phase Moderate/ Low Moderate Risk * * * -0% . Black lines indicate worsening going hyperinflation of food and non-food commodities High Risk magnitude only has seriously damaged not only pastoral, agro-pastoral Projected Trend Improving Situation Worsening Situation and riverine households’ purchasing power, but also that No Change Mixed Situation # Urban Populations in Humanitarian Emergency of the urban poor. # and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis Areas of New IDP Concentrations in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis and Humanitarian Emergency as of August 2008 Rural To t a l Urban -100% Rural: 475,000 Areas of Old IDP ConcentrationsUrban: 195,000 prior to Nutrition assessments cond