Technical Series Report No V. 15 October 15, 2008 2008 Post Gu Analysis Food Security Analysis Unit - Somalia Box 1230 Village Market Nairobi, Kenya Ph: 254-20-3745734 Fax: 254-20-3740598 Web site: www.fsausomali.org Email: [email protected] Technical and Funding Agencies Managerial Support European Commission FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 ii Issued October 15, 2008 Acknowledgement FSAU would like to thank the fifty five partner agencies for their participation and support in this seasonal assessment and analysis (see Appendix 5.9). This crucial assessment would not have been possible without the technical participation and timely logistical support provided by our partners. The assessment and analysis would not have been possible without the dedication and expertise of the FSAU’s twenty seven field based analysts who continue to work under very difficult conditions. Abdulkadir M. Abikar Abdulkadir Abikar, began working with FSAU in 1993, and for the 15 years with the project he has shown a high degree of professionalism and dedication. Having an agricultural background and having spent much of his earlier career in Shabelle and Juba regions with the Ministry of Agriculture, this gave him valuable experience for his duty area in the Shabelles. Abikar was a professor to a number of the FSAU Field Analysts and he continues to provide guidance and knowledge on many aspects of agriculture. Often working in difficult situations and conditions, Abikar has none-the-less been dependable and willing to take on many new challenges. We would like to thank him for all his contributions to FSAU and wish him well in his retirement. Mahadsanid! From the FSAU Team Technical Partners participating in the Post Gu ’08 Assessment World Vision, Adventist Development and Relief Agency (ADRA), Concern, Cooperazione Internazionale (COOPI), Green Hope, Solidarites, ASEP, AMA, NCA, Southern Agriculture and Development Organization (SADO), CARE, CEDA, IDF, Danish Refugee Council (DRC), Save the Children Fund United Kindom (SCF UK), ICDA, KISIMA, Horn Relief, Ari Land Livelihood Support Action (ALLSA), Islamic Court Union (ICU), SOSES, Juba Relief and De- velopment Organization (JRDO), JRADA, Juba Charity Centre (JCC), PCPDO, SAIF, Somali Women Solidarity Organization (SWSO), Jubashine, Youth Against AIDS and Poverty (YAAB), Islamic Relief, Agricultural Development Organization (ADO), HAVAYOCO, CANDLELIGHT, SVO, Swedish African Welfare Alliance (SAWA), Bay Local Authority, Huddur Local Authority, Gedo Local Authority, Middle and Lower Juba Local Authority, Middle Shabelle Local Authority, Puntland Local Authority, HADMA Puntland, MoLEA Puntland, PSAWEN Puntland, MORD Puntland, MoH Puntland, Ministry of Livestock Somaliland, Ministry of Agriculture Somaliland, Ministry of Water & Minerals Somaliland, Ministry of Health & Labour Somaliland, Ministry of Pastoral Development & Environment Somaliland, NERAD Somaliland FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 iii Issued October 15, 2008 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 1.1 KEY FINDINGS 1 1.2 IMPLICATIONS FOR RESPONSE 2 1.3 SECTOR HIGHLIGHTS 7 1.4 INTEGRATED FOOD SECURITY ANALYSIS HIGHLIGHTS 8 2. ANALYTICAL PROCESSES AND METHODS 11 3. SECTOR REPORTS 14 3.1 CLIMATE AND RAINFALL OUTCOME 14 3.2 CIVIL INSECURITY 17 3.3 GU ‘08 CEREAL CROP PRODUCTION 19 3.4 LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION AND EXPORT 24 3.5 MARKET ANALYSIS AND TRENDS 29 3.6 NUTRITION OVERVIEW 30 4. INTEGRATED FOOD SECURITY ANALYSIS 32 4.1 SOMALIA’S URBAN FOOD SECURITY CRISIS 32 4.2 SOMALIA’S RURAL FOOD SECURITY CRISIS 38 4.2.1 Gedo Region 39 4.2.2 Lower and Middle Juba 43 4.2.3 Bay and Bakool 46 4.2.4 Lower and Middle Shabelle 52 4.2.5 Hiran Region 57 4.2.6 Central Regions 62 4.2.7 Northeast Region 67 4.2.8 Northwest Region 71 5. APPENDICES 78 5.1 Background and Recent Developments in the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification 78 5.1.2 Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Reference Table 79 5.2 Time-Series of the Integrated Phase Classifications (IPC) Maps For Somalia 2005 – 2008 81 5.3 Progression of the Humanitarian Situation by Region from Deyr ‘07/8 to Gu ’08 83 5.3.1 Progression of Humanitarian Situation, Gedo Region from Deyr 07/08 to Gu 2008 83 5.3.2 Progression of Humanitarian Situation, L. and M. Juba Regions from Deyr ’07/08 to Gu ’08 84 5.3.3 Progression of Humanitarian Situation, Bay and Bakool Regions from Deyr ’07/08 to Gu ’08 85 5.3.4 Progression of Humanitarian Situation, Shabelle Regions from Deyr ’07/08 to Gu ’08 86 5.3.5 Progression of the Humanitarian Situation for Hiran from Deyr ’07/08 to Gu ’08 87 5.3.6 Progression of the Humanitarian Situation for Central from Deyr ’07/08 to Gu ’08 88 5.3.7 Progression of Humanitarian Situation for NE and NW Regions From Deyr ’07/08 to Gu ’08 89 5.4 Post Gu ’08 Estimated Population in HE and AFLC For the Period July to Dec. 2008 92 5.4.1 Somalia Combined Rural, Urban and IDP Population Numbers, July - Dec. 2008 92 5.4.2 Estimated Rural Population in He and AFLC by District July to Dec., 2008 93 5.4.3 Estimated Urban Population in He and AFLC by District July to Dec., 2008 95 5.4.4 Estimated Rural Population in He and AFLC by Livelihood Zones, July to Dec., 2008 97 5.5 Comparison of Risk and Mitigating Factors between 1991-92 and 2007-08 99 5.6 Urban Indicator Matrix 100 5.7 Livestock Herd Dynamics by Region and Livelihood Zone 102 5.7.1 Livestock Herd Dynamics Gedo Region 102 5.7.2 Livestock Herd Dynamics Central and Bakool Region 102 5.7.3 Livestock Herd Dynamics Central, Hiran and Juba Regions 103 5.7.4 Livestock Herd Dynamics Juba and Juba Region 103 5.7.5 Livestock Herd Dynamics Northwest and Northeast Region 103 5.8 Summary of Key Nutrition Findings 104 5.8.1 Summary of Key Nutrition Findings in Central Regions 104 5.8.2 Summary of Key Nutrition Findings in Hiran Region 104 5.8.3 Summary of Key Nutrition Findings in M & L Shabelle Regions 105 5.8.4 Summary of Key Nutrition Findings in Gedo Region 105 5.8.5 Summary of Key Nutrition Findings in Middle and Lower Juba Regions 106 5.8.6 A Summary of Key Nutrition Findings in Bakool Region 106 5.8.7 Summary of Results Hawd, Sool Plateau and Nugal Valley (Pastoral) Livelihood Zones 107 5.8.8 Summary of Results Guban and Golis (Pastoral) Livelihood Zones 107 5.8.9 Summary of Results of Northwest Agro-Pastoral Lhzs 108 5.8.10 Summary of Results of Hargeisa, Berbera and Burao IDPs 108 FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 15 iv Issued October 15, 2008 5.8.11 Summary of Key Nutrition Findings in Northeast Regions 109 5.8.12 Summary of Results in Northeast (Golis, Gagab, Nugal Valley, Coastal Deeh, Sool Plateau and Kakaar Livelihood Zones) 110 5.8.13 Summary of Nutrition Assessments (April – July 2008) Findings 111 5.9 List of Partners That Participated in the FSAU Post Gu ’08 Assessment 112 5.10 Post Gu ’08 Assessment Process, Analytical tools and Timeline 113 5.10.1 FSAU Post Gu ’08 Assessment Overall Timeline 113 5.10.2 FSAU Regional Presentations on the Post Gu ’08 Results 113 5.11 Assessment Instruments and Tools 113 5.11.1 Food Security Livelihoods and Nutrition Assessment Pastoral Questionnaire 114 5.11.2 Food Security, Livelihood and Nutrition Assessment: Crop Production Survey 117 5.11.3 Food Security, Livelihood and Nutrition Assessment: Gu ‘08 Crop Production Survey Summary by District 120 5.11.4 Food Security, Livelihood and Nutrition Assessment: Cereal Flow Survey 123 5.11.5 FSAU Gu ’08 Assessment: Conflict Monitoring Form 126 5.11.6 Food Security, Livelihood and Nutrition Assessment: Urban Survey Questionnaire 128 5.11.7 FSAU Post Gu ’08 Nutrition Rapid Assessment Questionnaire 130 5.11.8 FSAU Post Gu ’08 Framework For Estimating the Nutrition Situation 136 5.11.9 Evidence Based Analysis Template: Post Gu ’08 Assessment 139 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Somalia Distribution of Rural Population in Crisis 3 Table 2: Somalia Distribution of Urban Population in Crisis 4 Table 3: Somalia Combined Rural, Urban and IDP Population Numbers, July - Dec. 2008 4 Table 4: Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Reference Table (FAO/FSAU May. 2008) 6 Table 5: Overview of 2008 Post Gu Assessment Analytical Process and Timeline 11 Table 6: Regional IDP Numbers and Percentage 18 Table 7: Gu ‘08 Cereal Production Estimates in Southern Somalia 19 Table 8: Northwest Gu/Karan ‘08 Cereal Crop Production Estimates 21 Table 9: Annual Cereal Balance Sheet – June 2008 to May 2009 23 Table 10: Water, Pasture and Livestock Body Conditions by Region 24 Table 11: Trends in Livestock, Production and Projected Herd Sizes 25 Table 12: Livestock Exported From Berbera Port (Jan. - July ‘08) 28 Table 13: Livestock Exported from Bossaso Port (Jan. - July ‘08) 28 Table 14: Exportation of Chilled Meat from Burao, Beletweyne, Mogadishu and Galkayo Abattoir (Jan. –July ‘08) 28 Table 15: Percent Price increase Jan to July ‘08 29 Table 16: Minimum Basket 32 Table 17: Income Analysis 34 Table 18: Current Situation Compared to 1991-92 Famine - No Early Warning of Famine during period of July-Dec. ’08 37 Table 19: Gedo Region, Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) 39 Table 20: Gedo Region, Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) 40 Table 21: Juba Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) 43 Table 22: Juba Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) 44 Table 23: Bay and Bakool, Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC).