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TreeKeepers and Opportunities and Constraints The debate over climate change is no longer about what causes global warming. Rather, the issue … is how to ensure that billions of at-risk people and businesses around the world can rapidly adapt and ensure that their communities are as resilient as possible. – World Economic Forum, 11/13/18 Climate Change – How It Works Climate Change Impacts: Temperature Climate Change Impacts: Temperature Climate Change Impacts: Precipitation Climate Change Impacts: Precipitation Climate Change Impacts: Precipitation Climate Change Impacts: Precipitation Climate Change Impacts: Humidity A Negative Feedback Loop and A Big Problem: Climate Change Impacts: $$$$$$ Climate Change Impacts: $$$$$$ Net Negative Emissions Must Be Met Pg’s and Carbon Emission Estimates: • Pg = 1 Petagram = 1 billion tonnes = 1 Gigatonne (GT) • Pg = 1 Petagram = 1,000,000,000 Metric Tons (MT) = 1000 Teragrams • 1.5° C = 2.7° F 2° C = 3.6° F 5° C = 9° F 7° C = 12.6° F 10° C = 18° F US Emissions Chart

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Paris Agreement Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) 14 Road Map For Nature Based Solutions Three Types of Work: Nature Based Solutions A Multitude of Benefits: Foundation of Climate Change Work: Natural Climate Solutions aka Nature Based Solutions

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1/3 Global and US Potential: Global: • 11.3 Pg CO2 at carbon price of $100/ton • Results in 37% of needed emissions reduction by 2030 (equivalent to stopping all emissions from oil)

US: • 1.2 Pg CO2 at carbon price of $100/ton (11.5% of global) • Results in 22% of 2016 net emissions @ 5.18 Pg (Greater than or equal to remaining mitigation required to meet Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) @approx. 4.3 Pg) US Potential Maximum Reduction Through Nature Based Solutions: Maps: Loss Opportunities Maps: Urban Opportunities Forest Specific Climate Change Impacts: Forest Specific Climate Change Impacts: Forest Specific Climate Change Impacts: General Observations • Forest distribution/type generally become more homogenized • White/Red/Jack Pine are greatly reduced or go away altogether • Ditto Spruce/Fir forests • Regionally, Oak/Hickory forests are greatly reduced • Regionally, Maple/Beech/Birch forests are greatly reduced or go away altogether • Regionally, Elm/Ash/ Cottonwood become dominate forest type Forest Specific Climate Change Impacts: Forest Specific Climate Change Impacts: Forest Specific Climate Change Impacts: Urban Climate Change Impacts: Considerations: Benefits of Urban Urban Specific Climate Change Impacts: Warmer Temperatures: • In winter increases winter kill due to premature circulation of water and nutrients in vascular tissue. If followed by rapid cooling, tissue injury or death ensues. • Favor populations of pest and pathogen diseases • Reduces some trees ability to bear fruit Water Cycle Alteration: • Increased winter precipitation results in greater risk of physical damage due to ice and snow loads. • combined with soil compaction and impervious surfaces result in available tissue water shortages. All issues impose additional stress on trees and make them less resilient Urban Specific Management Measures: Mitigation: • Reduce gas (GHG) emissions. • Enlarge planting areas, improve soil, and reduce impervious conditions, shade pavements and structures Adaptation: • species diversity to reduce mass infestations. • Regular maintenance: water, mulch and to encourage development of strong structure and limbs Local Governance: • Participation in Local Tree Advisory Boards and encourage partnerships with organized citizen groups and non-profits. Community Stewardship: • TreeKeepers, Neighborhood Workdays, volunteer data collection for management and climate action plans and tree inventories. Considerations: Shade and Heat Islands

Trees and vegetation lower surface and air temperatures by providing shade and through evapotranspiration. Shaded surfaces, for example, may be 20–45°F (11–25°C) cooler than the peak temperatures of unshaded materials. Evapotranspiration, alone or in combination with shading, can help reduce peak summer temperatures by 2–9°F (1–5°C). Considerations: Shade and Heat Islands Considerations: Stormwater Considerations: Interception General Data Observations • Larger (more mature) trees intercept more rainwater than smaller (less mature) trees • Trees with rougher and larger leaves generally intercept more rainwater then those with smaller and smoother leaves • On average coniferous trees intercept more rainwater than deciduous trees – especially in winter • The longer and more intense the rainstorm, the less of a role/impact interception will play in minimizing stormwater runoff Considerations: Soil Volume

• The bigger the tree the more environmental benefits it provides. • Ideal Soil Volume ranges from 1000 to 1200 Cubic feet of soil. • At 3’ deep, you need 330 to 400 square feet of soil – 30’ x 10’ or 26’ x 15’

1 Cubic Feet of Soil

1 Foot x 1 Foot x 1 Foot (1’ x 1’ x 1’) Considerations: Placement We should not be planting trees in U.S. cities and towns with the result of absorbing great amounts of carbon dioxide. But, trees do make a difference in emissions: • In summer about half of the electricity used in the U.S. powers air conditioners, causing power emissions of 100 million tons of carbon dioxide (27 million tons of carbon) each year. Trees planted to shade buildings and cool the air through transpiration can reduce this energy use by up to 70%. • Well-placed trees that slow the wind can reduce energy use for heating by 30%. • Trees in living snowfences reduce the energy needed to plow roads and parking lots. These are a few ways trees can be used to reduce energy use, thereby reducing use and carbon dioxide emissions. Applying Land-Based Climate Change Solutions to Openlands Work A creative approach allows for interpretation and flexibility: A definition of “Working Lands” allows application to the urban fabric as well as agricultural lands. By necessity must now have at least two primary co-functions.

38 Applying Climate Change Solutions to Openlands Work: Think Spatially Spatial thinking allows Openlands to focus and target programs, policies, and efforts to the area(s) of greatest need Urban areas where community based resiliency programs are more applicable (see slide 16)

Rural areas where more typical land- based solutions are more applicable (see slide 15)

39 Applying Community Resiliency Solutions to Openlands Work: Make Community Connections

40 Thank You!

Any Questions? Forest Specific Climate Change Impacts: General Data Conundrum • Humidity trends increase • Temperature trends increase • 4th NCA shows higher water demand by and trees resulting in drier plants and soil. Q: How can drier plants and soil result when humidity increases? A: Vapor Pressure Demand (VPD): the difference between how much moisture is in the air and the amount of moisture in the air at saturation (at 100% relative humidity). Forest Specific Climate Change Impacts: • Annually growing has gradually become 8% to 12% lighter since 1900 • Within the same period, the volume growth of the trees in central Europe has accelerated by 29% to 100%. o Lighter wood is less solid and it has a lower calorific value. • Research indicates that the practical and political impacts of this finding mean: o current climate-relevant of forests are being overestimated due to calculation with established but outdated wood densities. • Therefore the traditional carbon sequestration rate estimates for Central Europe would be potentially too high by about ten million metric tons of carbon per year. Building the Case to Advance Our Position: Place Based/Land-Based Climate Solutions Applicable to Openlands Work Area by Type: o Reforestation: /TreeKeepers, CRTI, OMMA, restoration work o Natural : FPDCC, LCFPD, MCCD partnerships o Avoided Forest Conversion: easements, land & pass through acquisition, Land protection o Urban Reforestation: Tree Planters Grants, tree planting, TreeKeepers

o Avoided Grassland Conversion: easements, land acquisition, land protection o Cover : food and farmland - local food production, soil health strategies o Cropland Nutrient Management: food and farmland o Grassland Restoration: OMMA, restoration work

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