Shaken, Shrinking, Hot, Impoverished and Informal: Emerging Research Agendas in Planning

Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250 www.elsevier.com/locate/pplann

Shaken, shrinking, hot, impoverished and informal: Emerging research agendas in planning Hilda Blanco a,1,*, Marina Alberti a,1 a Department of Urban Design and Planning, Box 355740, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-5740, USA Robert Olshansky b,2, Stephanie Chang c,2 b Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 611 Taft Drive, Champaign, IL 61829, USA c School of Community and Regional Planning, University of British Columbia, 242-1933 West Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada Stephen M. Wheeler d,3, John Randolph e,3, James B. London f,3 d Landscape Architecture Program, Department of Environmental Design, University of California at Davis, One Shields Ave., Davis, CA 95616, USA e Department of Urban Affairs & Planning, Virginia Tech, 201-C Architecture Annex (0113), Blacksburg, VA 24061 USA f College of Architecture, Art, and Humanities, Clemson University, Clemson, SC 29634, USA Justin B. Hollander g,4, Karina M. Pallagst h,4, Terry Schwarz i,4, Frank J. Popper j,4 g Urban and Environmental Policy and Planning Department, Tufts University, 97 Talbot Avenue, Medford, MA 02155, USA h Center for Global Metropolitan Studies, University of California at Berkeley, 316 Wurster Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720-1870 USA i Cleveland Urban Design Collaborative, Kent State University, College of Architecture and Environmental Design, 820 Prospect Avenue, Cleveland, OH 44115 USA j Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy, Rutgers University, 33 Livingston Avenue, Room 535, New Brunswick, NJ 08901-1958, USA Susan Parnell k,5, Edgar Pieterse l,5, Vanessa Watson m,5 k Environmental and Geographical Sciences, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7700, South Africa l African Centre for Cities, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7700, South Africa m School of Architecture, Planning and Geomatics, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7700, South Africa

* Corresponding author. Tel.: +1 213 821 2431; fax: +1 213 740 0373. E-mail addresses: [email protected], [email protected] (H. Blanco), [email protected] (M. Alberti), [email protected] (R. Olshansky), [email protected] (S. Chang), [email protected] (S.M.Wheeler),[email protected] (J. Randolph), [email protected] (J. B. London), [email protected] (J. B. Hollander), [email protected] (K. M. Pallagst), [email protected] (T. Schwarz), [email protected] (F. J. Popper), [email protected] (S. Parnell), [email protected] (E. Pieterse), [email protected] (V. Watson). 1 Guest Editors, authors of Chapter 1. 2 Authors of Chapter 2. 3 Authors of Chapter 3. 4 Authors of Chapter 4. 5 Authors of Chapter 5.

Abstract This is the second of two special issues in Progress in Planning exploring emerging research agendas in planning. It brings together scholars from diverse schools working on new areas of research and application in urban design and planning. Emergent research agendas include both novel areas of research and important shifts in the direction of a research area. The challenge for planning schools is to reflect critically on these changes and develop long-term research agendas that can better position our field in society and academia, and provide a basis from which to assess our academic programmes. The chapters in this issue display the different scales and fields of planning, including planning for: disaster recovery; climate change, especially opportunities for mitigation; shrinking cities in the First World; and rapidly urbanising informal and impoverished cities in the global South. At the same time, the chapters identify research areas that respond to major social and environmental changes. Olshansky and Chang highlight the increasing losses from catastrophic disasters, and address the need for disaster recovery planning. Wheeler, Randolph and London focus on climate change, and, noting the urgency of action now, their research agenda emphasises opportunities for planners to develop research and policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Hollander, Pallagst, Schwarz and Popper look at increasing economic and population trends in many First World cities that result in city ‘shrinkage’. They present new opportunities for improving cities’ green space networks and natural features, and for research. The trebling of urban population in African cities by 2050, in conditions of poverty and informality, is the major trend driving Parnell, Pietriese and Watson’s chapter. They present an agenda for new planning theories and for supporting empirical research to address the actual conditions of African cities. # 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Disasters; Natural hazards; Recovery; Reconstruction; Urban systems; Climate change; Global warming; Greenhouse gases; Mitigation; Adaptation; Research needs; Shrinking cities; Demographics; Land use; Urban decline; Global trends; Global South; Urban Africa; Right to the city; Informality; Urban planning

Contents

Chapter 1. Introduction...... 197 Chapter 2. Planning for disaster recovery: emerging research needs and challenges ...... 200 2.1. Introduction ...... 200 2.2. Communities within the disaster cycle ...... 200 2.3. Planning-related research on recovery ...... 201 2.3.1. Key issues from empirical studies of recovery ...... 202 2.3.2. Planning and a comprehensive view of disaster recovery...... 203 2.4. A systems approach to urban disaster recovery ...... 204 2.4.1. Modelling disaster recovery...... 204 2.4.2. Research needs and challenges...... 206 2.5. Post-disaster planning processes, institutions and management...... 206 2.5.1. Issues in recovery planning and management...... 206 2.5.2. Research needs and challenges...... 208 2.6. Conclusions ...... 208 Chapter 3. Planning and climate change: an emerging research agenda ...... 210 3.1. Introduction ...... 210 3.2. Planners’ role in mitigating climate change ...... 211 3.2.1. Plan and policy development ...... 212 3.2.2. Reducing emissions of greenhouse gases in particular sectors ...... 213 3.2.3. Need for early planning action...... 216 3.3. Planners’ role in adapting to climate change ...... 217 3.3.1. Vulnerability assessment ...... 217 3.3.2. Valuation and prioritisation ...... 218 3.3.3. A framework for adaptation...... 218 3.4. Planners’ roles in the institutions and politics of climate change ...... 218 3.4.1. Planning processes and implementation...... 218 3.4.2. Economic barriers ...... 219 3.4.3. Political barriers...... 219 3.4.4. Public participation and education ...... 220 3.4.5. Planning education ...... 220 3.5. Conclusion ...... 221 H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250 197

Chapter 4. Planning shrinking cities ...... 223 4.1. Introduction ...... 223 4.2. The phenomenon of shrinking cities ...... 224 4.3. German and other discourses on shrinking cities ...... 224 4.4. Emerging research questions: land use ...... 227 4.5. Emerging research questions: environmental mitigation and ecological restoration ...... 228 4.6. Emerging research questions: social equity ...... 229 4.7. Emerging research questions: right-sizing infrastructure ...... 230 4.8. Emerging research questions: density ...... 231 4.9. Conclusion: a need for coherence...... 232 Chapter 5. Planning for cities in the global South: an African research agenda for sustainable human settlements. . . 233 5.1. Introduction ...... 233 5.2. The new urban context for planning: human settlements in the 21st century ...... 233 5.3. What does the changing urban context mean for the future of planning?...... 234 5.4. Research agenda of the African Centre for Cities ...... 236 5.4.1. The South African experiment in sustainable human settlements ...... 237 5.4.2. Grounding the research agenda in urban management...... 238 5.5. Conclusion ...... 240 Acknowledgements ...... 241 References ...... 242 Biographical details...... 248

Chapter 1. Introduction explore emerging research agendas in the planning discipline by bringing together scholars from diverse Hilda Blanco and Marina Alberti schools or fields working on new areas of research and application in the field of urban design and planning. This is the second of two special issues in Progress in Emergent research agendas include both novel areas of Planning6 exploring emerging research agendas in research as well as important shifts in the direction of a planning. The idea for the issues evolved out of a research area. We were pleased to obtain over three strategic planning effort we undertook for the Inter- dozen abstracts in response to our announcement and disciplinary PhD programme in Urban Design and we issued about a dozen invitations for authors to Planning at the University of Washington. As we began submit complete papers on promising topics. the planning process, we identified major changes that This second issue contains four papers that display have occurred in society and in the field since our the different scales and fields of planning, including programme was developed and its curriculum set. We planning for disaster recovery; climate change, focusing recognised that, in general, the challenge for planning mainly on opportunities for mitigation; the challenges schools is to reflect critically on these changes and of planning for shrinking cities in the First World; and of develop long-term research agendas that can better planning for rapidly urbanising informal and impover- position our field in society and academia and provide a ished African cities and, in general, cities in the global basis from which to assess our academic programmes. South. The papers identify research areas that respond As a result, we first established a seminar called to major social and environmental changes. Olshansky Emerging Research Agendas, where panels of faculty and Chang highlight how losses from catastrophic and students lead seminars on the directions of research disasters are increasing—an issue made critical to emerging in various existing or emerging research planners and US society at large in the aftermath of clusters. Through the seminar, we realised that this Hurricane Katrina—and address the need for disaster effort should be broader, going beyond our faculty and recovery planning in the aftermath of such disasters. our PhD programme. These special issues aim to Wheeler, Randolph and London focus on climate change and, noting the urgency of action now to 6 The first issue, Hot, congested, crowded and diverse: Emerging address the causes of global warming, their research research agendas in planning (2009) edited by H. Blanco and M. agenda emphasises opportunities for planners to Alberti, appeared in Progress in Planning, 71(4), 153–205. develop research and policies to reduce emissions from 198 H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250 greenhouse gases.7 Hollander, Pallagst, Schwarz and over time; understanding how to design and manage Popper point our attention to increasing economic and institutions and planning processes to operate effec- population trends in many First World cities that result tively in the uniquely constrained post-disaster envir- in the loss of urban populations and city ‘shrinkage’. onment; continuing to build a database of cases, while This new approach to city decline offers opportunities also beginning to synthesise lessons from comparative for improving cities’ green space networks and natural analysis; and using multiple methods, in order to features, and rich opportunities for research. The increase understanding of the challenges of recovery. trebling of urban population in African cities by 2050, in conditions of poverty and informality, is the Planning and climate change: an emerging research major trend driving Parnell, Pietriese, and Watson’s agenda paper. The authors present an agenda for new planning Wheeler, Randolph and London argue that although theories and supporting empirical research to do justice global warming is one of the most important issues to the actual conditions of African cities, which are so confronting our societies in the 21st century, academic different from cities in developed countries. and professional planners, whose mission is preparing for the future, have yet to take a leading role in assessing Planning for disaster recovery: emerging research the implications of accelerated climate change or in needs and challenges drafting policies or plans to address the problem. In this Olshansky and Chang argue that planning and paper, the authors survey current research related to the management of post-disaster recovery processes is challenge of planning for climate change, and outline emerging as an important new area of planning future research needs in this field. They focus primarily research. The lingering problems of recent catastrophes, on planners’ role in mitigating greenhouse gas as well as heightened concern that disasters will become emissions, but also include discussion of their role in more frequent and costly, have raised the salience of this adapting to the effects of climate change to complement issue in policy and research agendas. Recovery Blanco and Alberti’s discussion in the first issue of planning poses unique challenges for practitioners emerging research agendas in planning in this journal. and researchers alike, as time compresses, stakes Research from energy planning, transportation, growth increase, additional resources flow, and public interest management, and green building fields relates to the is heightened. The challenge is this: how can local topic of mitigation, as does research on sustainable governments effectively manage post-disaster recovery development generally. Work from the disaster pre- and reconstruction of social systems—meeting the paredness, risk management, and environmental impact time-sensitive needs of housing, economic and social mitigation fields relates to the subject of adaptation, recovery, while also maximising the opportunity for although usually without specific reference to climate community betterment? The paper reports on recent change. In both areas much more work is needed to efforts to develop theories and methods for studying the provide the empirical and theoretical backing for the planning environment for post-disaster recovery. It difficult public policy decisions that lie ahead. New, presents complementary lines of emergent research more action-oriented planning strategies and theories efforts that seek to better understand and inform may be required in order to address the climate change recovery planning. One approach seeks to develop challenge. Expanded resources to support research and urban systems models that anticipate and explain the leadership by professional planning organisations will pace, characteristics and success of recovery with post- be essential. disaster indicators. The second approach seeks to understand the institutions, planning processes, and Planning shrinking cities management approaches for guiding recovery actions Hollander, Pallagst, Schwarz and Popper indicate by both public and private actors. Future research needs that developed, modern cities throughout the world are include: understanding the process of recovery of facing population declines at an unprecedented scale. households, businesses, neighbourhoods and economies Over the last 50 years, 370 cities throughout the world with populations over 100,000 have shrunk by at least 10%. Wide swathes of the US, Canada, Europe and Japan are projecting double-digit declines in population 7 In the first issue, H. Blanco and M. Alberti’s paper, Building capacity to adapt to climate change through planning, Progress in in the coming decades. Internationally, scholars and Planning, 71(4), 158–169, focused on climate change adaptation practitioners of the built environment have responded to planning. this crisis by reconceptualising decline as shrinkage and H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250 199 have begun to explore creative and innovative ways for in the African experience, the authors emphasise the cities to shrink successfully. Vacant land in shrinking need for planning research to focus on systems of urban cities offers opportunities to improve green space management, and identify four aspects of such systems networks and natural systems, and to experiment with to develop a meaningful research agenda in planning for non-traditional uses, enabling such cities to reinvent African cities: regulatory frameworks; household-scale themselves as more productive, sustainable and infrastructures; neighbourhood-scale infrastructures; ecologically sound places. The paper poses two central and human dimension aspects related to social cohesion research challenges to the academic planning commu- and solidarity. nity: to what extent can existing planning tools used in These four papers, together with the three in the first growing communities be adapted to be used in a issue, do not comprehensively canvass the field of social shrinking environment? And, secondly, how do and environmental challenges, but they are suggestive. planners, policy makers, citizens, businesses, and others Three of the papers—Blanco and Alberti’s, Wheeler, operate within a shrinking city, how do they con- Randolph and London’s, and Olshansky and Chang’s— ceptualise population loss, how do they manage the are focused on key environmental challenges to cities in physical changes that result from shrinkage, and what the 21st century—climate change, and the likelihood of can they do to plan more effectively for shrinkage? more frequent disasters and catastrophes. Unless, as Shrinking cities, the authors argue, might offer a Wheeler, Randolph and London argue, we quickly paradigm shift from growth-centred planning to a more succeed in developing the policies and practices to careful and place-based approach towards more liveable mitigate climate change, we had better develop the cities. fields of adaptation planning, as Blanco and Alberti argue, and of disaster recovery, as Olshansky and Chang Planning for cities in the global South: an African develop. Being prudent, we should be proceeding on all research agenda for sustainable human settlements fronts. Increasing non-motorised travel—the inherent Parnell, Pieterse and Watson begin with the interest driving the Forsyth, Krizek and Rodriguez staggering trends: the projection of the trebling of the paper—and increasing density in our cities—the driving urban population in Africa by 2050, under conditions of interest in Talen and Cliff’s paper—are strategies that weak urban economies, with the bulk of the population can be useful in reducing our carbon footprint, although surviving under conditions of informality. Currently as the authors point out, there are other reasons for UN-Habitat estimates that 72% of the urban population pursuing such research, for example, liveability, or lives without acceptable housing or services. The social solidarity. Two papers address primarily eco- authors highlight the lack of environmental profes- nomic and demographic changes, Hollander and his sionals, and of planning education, and point out that associates take up the phenomenon of city decline or the standing institutions are often outdated and shrinkage, and the other, by Parnell, Pieterse and remnants of colonial days. The authors argue that this Watson, focuses on the phenomenon of rapid urbanisa- urban context, so different from the context of First tion under conditions of informality and poverty in World cities that have been the focus of most urban African cities. Both are theoretically interesting, the planning theory and practice, requires new planning shrinkage phenomenon because it challenges directly the theories, practices and research to address the reality of profession’s penchant for growth and development. The African cities, and they set out the emerging research second, the rapid growth of impoverished urban popu- approach and agenda of the African Centre for Cities at lations, questions the very relevance of applying First the University of Cape Town, South Africa. They start World planning to the actual context of African cities. out from a progressive value base, socially and As a whole, the two issues provide a striking tapestry ecologically informed, and, in particular, they advocate of intertwining physical and social issues that challenge an empirically and analytically grounded and inter- the theory and practice of urban planning in the early disciplinary rights-based approach to sustainable 21st century—some papers embedded in mature development. Following the UN and UN-Habitat research frameworks, and others just beginning to pose agenda of sustainable human settlements, the research research questions. agenda of the Centre for African Cities is structured All are engaged with vital questions that highlight around sustainable human settlements to ensure the the growing importance of urban planning for our times, progressive realisation of rights. Grounding this agenda and offer multiple research opportunities. 200 H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250

Chapter 2. Planning for disaster recovery: Disaster events occur periodically, and humans emerging research needs and challenges adjust to these events through a continuous four-stage cycle over time (Burton, Kates, & White, 1978; Mileti, Robert Olshansky and Stephanie Chang 1999). Preparedness involves building the capability to respond quickly when a disaster occurs or is imminent. 2.1. Introduction Response consists of the actions taken at the time of the disaster to save lives and minimise damage. Recovery Disasters disrupt the physical stock of cities, involves the short-term restoration of lifeline systems infrastructure systems, social and economic systems, and long-term restoration of the community to normal and the lives of residents.8 In an instant, a disaster functions. Mitigation consists of activities designed to demolishes much of what urban planners strive to reduce vulnerability, so as to minimise the deleterious accomplish: systems that support the lives of residents. effects of future disasters. Planners have long been Despite our best efforts, disasters will continue to occur, involved in mitigation activities, to strengthen struc- and urban planners have a critical role to play in guiding tures and discourage development in hazardous the recovery of what has been destroyed. Successful locations (Olshansky & Kartez, 1998, Chapter 6). application of planning policies can serve to reduce the Increasingly, planners have also become involved in long-term effects of disasters. recovery planning (Olshansky, 2007; Schwab, 1998). Planning and management of post-disaster recovery As detailed in Disasters by design—a compendium processes is emerging as an important new area of of disaster research, compiled by over 100 research- planning research. The lingering problems of recent ers—losses from catastrophic disasters are increasing catastrophes, as well as heightened concern that (Mileti, 1999). Moreover, since the 1999 publication of disasters will become more frequent and costly, have that claim, the world has seen devastating earthquakes raised the salience of this issue in policy and research in Turkey (1999, over 17,000 deaths); Taiwan (1999, agendas. Recovery planning poses unique challenges 2400 deaths); Gujarat, India (2001, over 20,000 deaths); for practitioners and researchers alike, as time Bam, Iran (2003, 31,000 deaths), Kashmir (2005, over compresses, stakes increase, additional resources flow, 87,000 deaths and 3.5 million displaced); and a 2004 and public interest is heightened. Disasters open a rare tsunami that ranks among the greatest catastrophes in but brief window of opportunity for effecting lasting human history (283,000 deaths in 10 countries) change. The challenge is this: how can local govern- (USGS, 2007). In August 2005, Hurricane Katrina ments effectively manage post-disaster recovery and struck the Gulf Coast, and displaced 770,000 people in reconstruction—meeting the time-sensitive needs of what is generally regarded as the worst disaster in housing, economic and social recovery, while also US history (Townsend, 2006). Global climate change maximising the opportunity for community betterment? and sea level rise will only further increase the risks to coastal populations from tsunamis and tropical 2.2. Communities within the disaster cycle storms. Disasters extend over time. They disrupt lives and Disasters are events that disrupt the functions of businesses, as people await compensation, infrastruc- social systems. They are caused by a combination of ture repair, and the return of their neighbours. The hazards (natural or technological) and social vulner- physical recovery from disasters takes many years, and ability (Kreps & Drabek, 1996). Most disaster the psychological scars can last for decades. Many researchers today view disasters as socially defined people survive the initial disaster, but then suffer from phenomena (Mileti, 1999); for example, a rainstorm of a the recovery, as the economy stagnates, social networks given size may be a disaster to one community but not to weaken, and health care and support services decline. another. This is true of all disasters, but is currently particularly visible in New Orleans following Hurricane Katrina. Over three years have passed since Katrina, yet 30% of 8 In some cases, disasters such as hurricanes and tsunamis also the population of New Orleans has not yet returned, and cause extensive damage to the ecosystems (e.g., forests, coastal permanent repairs to infrastructure have just begun. It habitats) on which communities may depend, either directly or took the city of Kobe, Japan, 10 years to fully recover indirectly. Such damage is especially disruptive to resource-dependent livelihoods, such as forestry or fisheries. In other disasters, events such following a devastating 1995 earthquake; but recovery as wildfires or floods that are disruptive to human communities may has been spatially and sectorally uneven, and many be part of normal regenerative cycles in the natural environment. individuals and businesses in that city permanently lost H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250 201 their homes and livelihoods (Chang, 2001; Olshansky, an ethic of sustainable recovery (Smith & Wenger, 2007). Johnson, & Topping, 2006). According to Berke and Campanella (2006), resiliency Notably, no consensus definition exists on what means the ability to survive future natural disasters ‘recovery’ means, how it should be measured, or what with minimum loss of life and property, as well as the constitutes ‘successful’ recovery. Some definitions of ability to create a greater sense of place among recovery consider it as a return to ‘pre-disaster’ residents; a stronger, more diverse economy; and a conditions. Alternatively, recovery can refer to a more economically integrated and diverse population. community resembling (e.g., in terms of population size or economic output) what it would have been had Resiliency means creating a community that can more the disaster not occurred. Yet another definition readily recover from the next disaster (Burby, 1998). recognises that after a disaster, a community often Whereas disaster-proof communities are infeasible, a undergoes significant change, so that it may never return more realistic goal is to create communities that can to either the pre-disaster or without-disaster states. ‘bend’ in a disaster and then bounce back ready to face From this perspective, recovery should be defined as the the next event. Resilience thus affords communities a post-disaster attainment of a stable state. way to cope with the uncertainties of hazards (God- However defined, it is clear that post-disaster schalk, 2003). Recovery is an opportunity to improve a recovery demands the skills of planners. Recovery is community, and the ease of recovery is also an a microcosm of all the challenges of urban planning— important planning goal. developing land use and economic development The planning challenge is this: how can local strategies to improve lives, acting in the absence of governments effectively manage post-disaster recovery sufficient information, making trade-offs between and reconstruction—meeting the time-sensitive needs deliberation and expediency, navigating local politics, of housing and economic recovery, while also max- engaging the public, and identifying funding sources to imising the opportunities for community betterment and supplement inadequate local resources. The post- resilience from future disasters? disaster environment offers opportunities to improve This paper reports on recent efforts to develop theories conditions over those that existed before, and additional and methods for studying the planning environment for resources usually become available. Conversely, post- post-disaster recovery. More importantly, it looks ahead disaster recovery poses difficult challenges. The local and identifies research needs, while also recognising planner plays a key role in trying to best use those the unique challenges to performing systematic research resources, while coping with the added stresses inherent that can inform future recovery planning efforts. It also to recovery. describes the ways in which recovery planning research Post-disaster recovery is a critical component of the can offer insights into other lines of planning enquiry, disaster cycle, because it also provides significant such as planning theory, community development, and opportunities for mitigation, thereby helping to break sustainability and resilience of urban systems. the cycle.9 This is due to several factors: the need for The paper presents an overview of planning-related new construction, the flow of post-disaster funding, and research on recovery, then elaborates on two comple- the ‘window of opportunity’ of increased awareness mentary lines of emergent research. One approach seeks following a disaster. Many scholars have begun to call to develop models that anticipate and explain the pace, for resiliency as a goal for communities following characteristics and success of recovery with post- disasters (e.g., Bruneau et al., 2003) and for developing disaster indicators. The second approach seeks to understand the institutions, planning processes and management approaches for guiding recovery actions 9 Although post-war reconstruction shares many physical charac- by both public and private actors. Together, these two teristics with post-disaster reconstruction, and it may be tempting to approaches offer the promise of being able to provide seek common lessons, the social and political environments of the emergency management cycle differ from that of the cycle of politics new insights regarding strategies to improve the speed, and armed conflicts. Post-war recovery shares many elements with quality and breadth of recovery from disasters. post-disaster recovery, but its most significant aspects involve the rebuilding of national economies, national and community institu- 2.3. Planning-related research on recovery tions, and governmental capacity (e.g., van Horen, 2002; Yarwood, 1999). This is inherently more complex than post-disaster reconstruction. Sometimes, as in the case of Aceh, Indonesia in 2005, post- Of all the phases of disasters, recovery is the least disaster reconstruction and post-war capacity building can be inter- researched. Most of our knowledge of post-disaster twined. recovery processes has been built through individual 202 H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250 disaster case studies. In particular, relatively few Many studies look at the immediate economic costs recovery studies are of direct use to planners. The of disasters, but few have studied the long-term literature contains little guidance for planners who economic effects of disasters on communities. The suddenly find themselves with significant post-disaster central question is whether a disaster leaves a responsibilities. But related fields of research can permanent economic imprint on the affected commu- provide important insights. Perspectives of recovery nity. Friesema et al. (1979) studied four communities, researchers vary, seeing it alternately as a household, with disasters occurring from 1955 to 1967. They used economic, planning, management or housing problem. several indicators over time in order to measure the The following paragraphs briefly review some of the long-term effects of the disaster. Identifying and most relevant of these studies. gathering appropriate time series data was a challenge to them, however, and trends, if any, turned out to be 2.3.1. Key issues from empirical studies of recovery more subtle than they expected. Similarly, using Most recovery research has been in the field of regional economic time series data, Gordon and sociology, focused on family and household recovery Richardson (1995) found little indication of measurable (Mileti, 1999; Quarantelli, 1999). For example, Bolin economic impact of the Northridge earthquake, and and Stanford (1998) studied Ventura County households Xiao (2008) found no long-term effects on economic following the 1994 Northridge Earthquake, in order to systems following the 1993 Midwest floods, although understand the effects of governmental and non- some communities experienced long-term structural or governmental aid programmes on people’s lives. demographic changes. Chang (2001), in a study of the Following the 1995 Kobe, Japan earthquake, Hayashi, Kobe earthquake, found that standard economic Tatsuki, and others (Kuromiya et al., 2005; Tatsuki & indicators give ambiguous results, but in-depth inves- Hayashi, 2002) tracked 1,200 earthquake victims over tigation of specific economic sectors reveals long-term time, in order to assess the speed and quality of the structural change as a result of the disaster. The Port of recovery of their homes, livelihoods, health and life Kobe, for example, suffered substantial, enduring losses satisfaction. Their perspective is that, ultimately, the that derive not simply from the physical devastation goal of all recovery policies is to achieve the recovery of suffered by the port, but also from the underlying individuals and households. All of these studies dynamic forces of global trade patterns, economic consistently show that households with the fewest development, and port competition (Chang, 2000). resources are least able to recover, because they have no Long-term economic studies after disaster are few; even way to temporarily sustain themselves until assistance short-term economic effects have posed challenges to arrives. researchers (e.g., FEMA, 1999; National Research A few studies have looked at the impacts of disasters Council, 1992). on small businesses, including Kroll et al. (1991) on the Provision of post-disaster housing, in large quantity 1989 Loma Prieta (San Francisco) earthquake, Chang and to a range of income groups, is a major post-disaster and Falit-Baiamonte (2002) on the 2001 Nisqually challenge, in terms of policy, finance and logistics. (Seattle-Tacoma) earthquake, and Alesch et al. (2001) Because of the difficulties in documenting the policies, on 13 US disasters. In one of the most extensive studies, programmes and results in multiple disaster cases, researchers at the University of Delaware’s Disaster comparative studies are few. Two notable exceptions Research Center surveyed over 2,000 businesses are: Comerio’s (1998) comparison of Hurricane Hugo, following the Loma Prieta earthquake, Hurricane Hurricane Andrew, the Loma Prieta earthquake, the Andrew in 1992, the 1993 flood in Des Moines, Iowa, Northridge earthquake, 1993 Mississippi River floods, and the 1994 Northridge earthquake (Webb, Tierney, & the 1985 Mexico City earthquake, and the Kobe Dahlhamer, 2000, 2002). A robust finding across these earthquake; and Nakayabashi’s (2004) comparison of studies is that small businesses and locally oriented housing policies, investment and timing following the businesses such as retail establishments experience 1995 Hanshin-Awaji earthquake and the 1999 earth- particular difficulty in recovery. A significant amount quakes in Turkey and Taiwan. Furthermore, there is a of business disruption often derives from utility lack of long-term studies of housing recovery, one interruption, rather than direct property damage. Other exception being the ongoing work of Zhang and indirect factors, such as loss of customers, pre-disaster Peacock (2005), following Hurricane Andrew in financial marginality, and managerial inability to adjust Florida. to new circumstances, also contribute to difficulty in In developed nations, financial needs can be recovery. enormous (Comerio, 1998; Johnson, 2005; Louisiana H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250 203

Office of Community Development, 2006), and in strategies that strategically and equitably support developing nations the challenge is to build local community recovery. capacity to construct self-help housing (e.g., Earth- quake Engineering Research Institute, 1999). In the 2.3.2. Planning and a comprehensive view of case of some developing nations, jobs may be more disaster recovery important than housing, which families can readily Few scholars have attempted to synthesise results build themselves. Rebuilding communities involves from several disasters. Reconstruction following dis- much more than merely providing a specified quantity aster,byHaas, Kates, and Bowden (1977) was the first of housing units, and many researchers are concerned study to take a comprehensive view of the recovery about how to address the issues of housing type, housing process. It examined two recent (1972 Rapid City flood, location, and public involvement in the pressures of the 1972 Managua, Nicaragua earthquake) and two older post-disaster period (Comerio, 1998; Koura & Mur- (1964 Alaska earthquake, 1906 San Francisco earth- osaki, 2003). In fact, the challenge is how to rebuild quake) disasters, in order to extract common lessons on sustainable communities, which involves a mix of the forces that affect the reshaping of a city following financing, capacity-building, institution-building, and disaster. Although they were probably overconfident in public involvement strategies (Berke, Kartez, & declaring that ‘the reconstruction process is ordered, Wenger, 1993; Ganapati, 2005; Government of Gujarat, knowable, and predictable’ (p. 261), their study 2001). The structure of post-disaster aid delivery can contained a great deal of insight that has been confirmed influence communities’ ability to rebuild sustainably. by subsequent disasters. They recommend that post- For example, Berke et al. (2008) found, in the case of disaster planners make decisions as soon as possible, so communities dependent on mangrove forests, aid could as to reduce uncertainty among private decision makers, influence their ability to sustainably manage the and recovery actions are easiest to accomplish if plans mangrove resources. and policies are in place before the disaster and if Another important area of concern pertains to the the city routinely maintains land use inventories. They lifelines or critical infrastructure systems that support also suggest phased planning, with immediate needs urban activities, such as electric power, natural gas, addressed first. An important aspect of their model was water, telecommunications, and transportation. Infra- identification of four overlapping phases of recovery, structure systems are highly vulnerable to physical distinguishable over time: damage in disasters and highly disruptive to societies when they fail (e.g., Gordon, Richardson, & Davis, (1) emergency period of search and rescue and 1998; Webb, Tierney, & Dahlhamer, 2000). Without emergency housing (days or a few weeks); energy and water, households may be forced to seek (2) restoration period of repairing infrastructure and emergency shelter, hospitals may shut down, and returning to relatively normal activities (a few businesses cease production—even if the homes, months); institutions and businesses themselves suffered no (3) replacement period of rebuilding capital stock to damage. Transportation damage can impede emergency pre-disaster levels (up to two years); and response, as well as commuter flows and goods (4) commemorative, betterment, and developmental movement. Moreover, events such as the August reconstruction involving large projects (up to 2003 blackout have heightened awareness of the 10 years). complex interdependencies between infrastructure systems themselves, wherein disruption to one The planning literature on disasters has generally infrastructure system often leads to multiple, wide- focused more on mitigation than on recovery (e.g., spread and cascading failures across many other Berke & Beatley, 1992; Burby, 1998; Godschalk et al., infrastructures (Chang et al., 2006; McDaniels et al., 1999; Gori, Geer, & Schwab, 2005; Morris, 1997; 2007). In the post-disaster context, speed of infra- Nelson & French, 2002; Olshansky, 2001). Less work structure repair and restoration is often of paramount has addressed post-disaster reconstruction processes concern. Chang and Nojima (2001) develop quanti- or the mitigation opportunities following disaster, tative indicators of infrastructure restoration in the but planners’ interest in recovery has been increasing Loma Prieta, Northridge, and Kobe earthquakes. in recent years. The first significant study on post- Infrastructure restoration is generally managed by earthquake land use planning was Land use planning engineers on the basis of technical considerations. after earthquakes (William Spangle and Associates Planning research is needed to develop restoration et al., 1980), but it was primarily concerned with how to 204 H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250 further post-disaster mitigation, rather than a broader set to take a quantitative, modelling, and urban/regional of recovery concerns. A number of other studies have economic approach, growing out of traditions in urban also explored post-disaster mitigation (Godschalk et al., and regional economics and regional science. While it 1999; Selkregg & Preuss, 1984). has involved conceptual and empirical studies of Los Angeles at the time of the 1994 Northridge disaster recovery, by far the greatest amount of research Earthquake was rare, in that it had just completed a draft attention has been devoted to quantitative modelling of recovery and reconstruction plan. The earthquake disaster impacts and risk reduction strategies. provided an opportunity to assess the effectiveness of the plan (Olshansky, 2001; Spangle Associates, 1997). 2.4.1. Modelling disaster recovery In general, the value of the plan was primarily in its The most established work on modelling disasters delineation of agency roles and responsibilities in the has focused on the problem of loss estimation— recovery process. Currently, the State of Florida is modelling the likely extent of human and property embarking on an initiative to encourage local post- losses that might be suffered by a city or region in the disaster redevelopment plans, and they are much in need event of a disaster. A number of computer-based of lessons provided by research on recovery planning decision-support tools have been developed to this end (Meyer, 2007). and implemented in practice, both in the insurance A significant contribution to the literature of post- industry and in the public domain. Often with a GIS user disaster recovery was a 1998 publication by the interface, these tools integrate information on char- American Planning Association, Planning for post- acteristics of the hazard event (e.g., severity of ground disaster recovery and reconstruction (Schwab, 1998). shaking in an earthquake), the built environment (e.g., Funded by FEMA, and published as part of the Planning location of different types of buildings), and the socio- Advisory Service subscriber series, this report has been economic system at risk (e.g., population and economic widely distributed among American professional activity). The most prominent of these models is planners. It provides advice to planners, presents HAZUSTM, a loss estimation model developed for the several case studies from a planning perspective, and Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) for includes a model ordinance (Topping, 1998) that can estimating casualties and dollar losses for potential help communities prepare ahead of time for post- earthquakes, flood, and extreme wind events.10 While disaster planning. HAZUSTM is not without its critics, it is notably From this disparate, though growing, body of available to communities around the country, nominally literature, several questions emerge for the planning at no cost. It thus augments and in many cases provides researcher: how can we define recovery, and what is new capacity for disaster preparedness planning to ‘successful’ recovery? Why do some communities communities with limited resources for this purpose. An recover more successfully than others? In particular, important research need is for critical assessment of how effective are recovery plans and policies? Who the effectiveness of HAZUSTM and other decision- makes recovery decisions? Which are most critical? support tools and their effects on disaster management What is the role of urban planners in rebuilding cities planning. after catastrophic disasters? Ultimately, how can Additionally, substantial research has been con- communities become more resilient to disasters, ducted on disaster modelling that has not yet made its creating better places while also meeting immediate way into practice. An emerging area of research has recovery needs? been the development of increasingly sophisticated modelling methods for assessing the total economic 2.4. A systems approach to urban disaster recovery impact of a disaster. The emphasis here has been on the disruption to economic activities that derive from Some of these questions are being addressed through human and property losses; in particular, the ‘higher- an emerging avenue of research that derives from a view order’ losses that represent the ‘ripple effects’ of direct of cities and regions as systems. This research is losses throughout an economy. Regional economic characterised by a focus on the linkages and interactions modelling approaches such as econometric, input– between elements that compose the urban system (such output (I–O), and computable general equilibrium as between economic sectors, across geographic space, or along networks in the built environment), and by a view of disasters as exogenous shocks or extreme events 10 See: http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/hazus (accessed 16 that perturb the urban system. This literature has tended September 2009). H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250 205

(CGE) models have been applied to disaster problems investigate optimal strategies for pre-disaster retrofit of with increasing sophistication (e.g., Okuyama & Chang, vulnerable links in a transportation network. Chang 2004a,b; see also Okuyama, 2007 for a review). Despite (2003a) and Rose and Liao (2005) examine the benefits the plurality of modelling approaches, a common theme of pre-disaster investments in disaster mitigation for has been the explicit attention to intra-regional (and water supply systems by accounting for economic sometimes interregional) linkages, particularly between disruptions from water outages. economic sectors. From the perspective of disaster recovery, a key Some of this research has attempted to quantify the research need in the modelling literature pertains to the economic disruption caused by actual disaster events. treatment of time—a particular challenge because many For example, West and Lenze (1994) applied a regional of the modelling approaches are inherently equilibrium- econometric model to examine the economic impacts of based and temporally non-specific. The applicability of Hurricane Andrew in 1992. Gordon, Richardson, & loss estimation models to recovery planning is limited, Davis (1998) applied the Southern California Planning as these models typically lack an explicit representation Model, a spatial I–O model, to the 1994 Northridge (Los of impacts as they extend over the months and years Angeles) earthquake. They found that highway trans- following the immediate shock of the disaster. One portation disruption accounted for one quarter of the exception is the work of Okuyama, Hewings, & Sonis total economic disruption losses from that disaster. (1999) that adapts I–O models to account for Okuyama, Hewings, and Sonis (1999) apply an intertemporal lags and anticipatory behaviours in interregional I–O model to estimate the higher-order production technologies of different economic sectors. economic losses from the 1995 Kobe (Japan) earth- Also, Rose and Liao (2005) distinguish between types quake catastrophe. Rose and Lim (2002) apply a CGE of producer behavioural adjustments (e.g., conservation model to assess the economic disruption from electric and substitution) that can be implemented in the very power outage in the Northridge earthquake. short run, short run, and long run. More broadly, a number of studies have focused on In a notable departure from the preceding literature, methodologically adapting regional economic models Miles and Chang (2006, 2007) have developed and to disaster applications (see Okuyama & Chang, refined a model that focuses not on estimating losses, 2004a,b; Okuyama, 2007). One paramount concern is but on anticipating recovery trajectories. This recovery capturing linkages across space. Some of the research model is distinct in three key respects: core relation- has looked at linkages across geographic units within a ships in the model are drawn from the empirical study area, for example the ripple effects of physical literature on disasters, rather than regional economic damage in one sub-area on economic activities in theory; the model is comprehensive, rather than focused another caused by intersectoral requirements in on the economy; and it is built on an agent-based production or consumption. Others have focused on structure where the analytical units are households, physical linkages across space in the form of regional businesses, and other agents, rather than spatial units or network infrastructures, in particular systems for economic sectors. The model has been tested and providing water (Chang, Svekla, & Shinozuka, 2002; calibrated against the 1995 Kobe and 1994 Northridge Rose & Liao, 2005), electric power (Rose et al., 1997), earthquakes. In this model, household, business, and and transportation (Chang, 2003b; Cho et al., 2001; neighbourhood recovery timepaths are interdependent Sohn et al., 2003). Attention is also being paid to because, for instance, households consume businesses’ capturing short-term behavioural adjustments and products while businesses provide households with disequilibrium processes (e.g., Okuyama, Hewings, & employment income. The recovery of locally oriented Sonis, 1999; Rose & Liao, 2005), but much more work businesses (e.g., retail stores catering to local markets) needs to be done in this area. is heavily dependent upon local recovery from the A number of the modelling studies have investigated disaster, whereas that of export-oriented businesses is policy and planning interventions. For example, Rose not. The model is capable of addressing a number of et al. (1997) look at spatially prioritising electric power exploratory questions that are of interest to recovery restoration with the objective of minimising regional planning, such as what factors most strongly influence economic disruption. Chang (2003b) compares the recovery, and how certain planning and policy inter- speed and equity implications of alternative strategies ventions might affect a community’s ability to recover for repairing damaged links on a transportation from future disasters. The model thus directly addresses network. Cho et al. (2001) consider optimal restoration the need to assess and anticipate community disaster of transportation networks, and Sohn et al. (2003) resilience. 206 H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250

2.4.2. Research needs and challenges represent plans, processes, key actors and institutions in This emerging literature is promising in that it is these quantitative models. moving towards developing decision-support tools for Hence several key research needs can be identified. planning interventions, which have hitherto been First is the need for empirical research that looks lacking. Such tools are important because, by definition, systematically at issues of community recovery, disasters happen in any given community only rarely. particularly on the influence of decisions, plans and Thus when a disaster occurs, planners and decision policies on recovery outcomes. Systematic, cross- makers are unlikely to be able to draw on personal cultural, comparative studies—and associated data experience and institutional memory. Not only could collection tools, protocols and mechanisms for data this research be useful for dealing with recovery sharing and archiving—are urgently needed (National management and planning when a disaster occurs, but it Research Council, 2006). A second priority consists of could be especially useful for educating and training developing methods to better understand how recovery planners and decision makers with no disaster is influenced by the underlying dynamics of change in experience about what to expect, and how they might the natural, built and human environments, notably proceed, in the aftermath of a future disaster. including influences of planning (e.g., land use, built This direction of research has several key strengths. form) on disaster risk. Finally, of particular importance First, it approaches cities as systems, identifying and is the integration of insights from the emerging focusing on key interrelationships that affect recovery. literature on institutions, planning processes and This allows for understanding how decisions in one management approaches in disaster recovery (discussed sector may affect recovery in others, which means that in the following section) with methods for quantita- better decisions (e.g., prioritisation of infrastructure tively assessing and modelling recovery. Such integra- restoration) can be made from the perspective of the tion would enable the use of systems models to explore entire community, city or region. Second, it is pressing questions, such as the trade-offs between speed quantitative, allowing systematic and transparent and deliberation. verification with empirical observations and data. Historic disasters can be compared systematically with 2.5. Post-disaster planning processes, institutions potential future events in ways that systematically and management develop a testable knowledge base about disaster recovery. Third, the approach is often visual and A complementary emerging area of planning map-based, with associated benefits for analysis and research pertains to the processes, institutions and communication; for example, being able to distinguish management of post-disaster recovery. The real work of and relate recovery at the neighbourhood level to the recovery lies in the reconstruction and redevelopment urban scale. But it is important to acknowledge and deal decisions by local government. Although decision- with key limitations. The paucity of data and empirical support tools are critical in assisting these processes, benchmarks is a major challenge. There are not enough the reality is that recovery is a fast-paced, information- disaster events that have been systematically studied poor environment, and local entities must operate from the perspective of developing quantitative data and within these constraints. When a community is struck recovery indicators, and there will always be many by a large disaster, it generally has no previous more variables than datapoints. Hence considerable experience to go on. Therefore, it is incumbent upon uncertainty is involved. Moreover, data are hard to come researchers to synthesise lessons and provide guidance by, often inconsistent and incomplete, and typically from an accumulating body of knowledge of recovery expensive to gather. Conveying this uncertainty is also a processes. challenge. Second, while empirical case studies find consistent evidence that disasters generally accelerate 2.5.1. Issues in recovery planning and management pre-disaster trends, the modelling approaches typically An important issue for planners, as well as other build from a static baseline (i.e., a snapshot of the local government officials and staff, is how to manage region’s economic, social and spatial structure) that is the recovery process. Rubin, Saperstein, and Barbee challenged to capture the effects of underlying dynamic (1985) published the first study to carefully examine forces of change (e.g., population growth, economic governmental organisation and processes for commu- restructuring). Third, the approach provides very nity-level recovery, based on their research of 14 limited insights into important qualitative factors that disasters from throughout the US. For practising influence recovery. It is challenging to adequately planners, however, Planning for post-disaster recovery H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250 207 and reconstruction is the first publication to begin to post-disaster plans that led to significant improvements provide useful information directly applicable to post- (e.g., Olshansky, Johnson, & Topping, 2006). disaster development management, and it contains Another way of thinking about this tension is that it several insightful case studies. In another management involves conflicting plans (Haas, Kates, & Bowden, study, Johnson (1999) took a retrospective view on the 1977). The first plan is that of the pre-existing city. This local government management process involved in the is the plan in people’s minds, and the pieces are recovery of Watsonville and Oakland, California from probably still in place: people, maps and human and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. More recently, economic networks. Everyone knows that this plan can Olshansky, Johnson, and Topping (2006) studied work, but only if it is put back quickly while all the recovery processes following the Northridge and Kobe pieces are still close at hand. The second plan is the plan earthquakes, and found that the process requires both for the future. This might be a previous plan or a new external funding and local flexibility; local governments recovery plan. It is the conflict between these two plans need to combine firm safety regulations with citizen that must be resolved, and in a short time, so as not to participation; and post-disaster planning requires well- lose the functional capabilities of the first plan and the funded planning processes, rich in information and mitigation and improvement possibilities of the future communication. plan. The recovery management role could be filled by Current research only provides limited anecdotal mayors, city councils or high-ranking local officials. Or, guidance regarding appropriate responses to this as is often the case in developing nations, they could be tension. As noted by Rubin, Saperstein, and Barbee NGOs (Gupta et al., 2002; Siembieda, 2002). Alter- (1985, p. 42), the ability to make this trade-off natively, Inam (2005) claims that most of the work of strategically and purposefully is rare. Furthermore, recovery is accomplished by existing agencies in the decisions on timing of reconstruction and planning are community, by middle managers who fall back on made at many levels: national, state/prefecture, city, normal routines and familiar programmes as they community, investor, business and household. On what confront the unexpected. Because the limited literature basis do we know which one to emphasise, and in which on recovery management is retrospective, it under- situations? It would be helpful to have additional emphasises the real-life daily challenges of those evidence on the costs of delay (in what ways does it struggling to lead the process. As a sped-up version of cost? How long a delay is too long?). It would also be the normally difficult processes of urban planning, useful to have more evidence on the value of moratoria recovery is, for many involved parties, an extension of of various lengths. And it is critical to understand more the chaos of disaster response (e.g., see Tierney, about the decision processes of all the various parties Lindeel, & Perry, 2001), with which it shares similar related to this trade-off. unique administrative challenges. Furthermore, in The literature of planning theory offers some insights recovery planning, stakes are high, participants are regarding how to make this trade-off. Plans provide under stress, and political tensions are amplified. information about intentions and future actions of Goldberger (2004), for example, describes some of various actors (Hopkins, 2001a, 2001b). Plans affect the the political and planning challenges in re-planning the world by providing information that affects beliefs and World Trade Center site, and, at the time of this writing, attitudes about the world, and in this way plans affect post-Katrina planning in New Orleans is still highly behaviour. Plans provide clues towards commitments contentious, stressful and uncertain. by particular groups to particular courses of action. The central issue in post-disaster recovery is the Recovery after large disasters involves multiple plans tension between speed and deliberation: between by multiple actors, and these plans work as persuasive rebuilding as quickly as possible and considering arguments designed for particular audiences. In con- how to improve on what existed before the disaster. trast, classic cases that focus on plans embedded in Reconstruction and planning both place conflicting political, social and spatial contexts (e.g., Altshuler, demands on a scarce resource: time. Rubin, Saperstein, 1965; Flyvbjerg, 1998; Grant, 1994; Meyerson & and Barbee (1985) observe that speed and quality are Banfield, 1955) tend to focus on one plan at a time, the metrics of successful recovery; the problem is that which undermines the opportunity to see many plans as speed and quality often conflict. This is a fundamental elements in a complex process among many actors. conflict, because both are vitally important. Despite Recent observations in New Orleans (Olshansky warnings from Haas, Kates and Bowden (1977) to et al., 2008) reveal that each of the four plans produced avoid slowing down to plan, there are many examples of to date serves a purpose for its authors and audiences. 208 H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250

Each plan has laid out frameworks for thinking about Under these circumstances, citizen involvement is where to go next. particularly challenging to accomplish. So planners The New Orleans case suggests that the best way to are faced with a dilemma: we know that citizen trade-off speed and deliberation is at the scale of involvement is crucial to the success of recovery, but specific decisions. Entities will tend to begin both acting we have little guidance for how to adapt current and planning shortly after a disaster occurs. What these knowledge about participatory processes to the high- entities most need from local government is an speed post-disaster environment. information and communication infrastructure, so that As noted by Comerio (1998), Quarantelli (1999), and they can better communicate their actions and inten- others, there is a big difference between a disaster and a tions to one another. In a high-speed planning catastrophe. A catastrophe affects entire urban systems. environment, the speed of information flows among If it causes a significant number of deaths, as in the planning entities is the most significant constraint to the obliteration of Yungay, Peru in 1970 (Oliver-Smith & effectiveness of plans. Goldman, 1988), social and business networks may Previous studies of post-disaster recovery planning vanish. If a catastrophic disaster affects a widespread offer the following general recipe for success (Haas, area, mutual aid from neighbouring communities would Kates, & Bowden, 1977; Johnson, 1999; Olshansky, also be lacking. Conversely, catastrophes offer oppor- 2005; Rubin, Saperstein, & Barbee, 1985; Schwab, tunities for large-scale redevelopment, as Arnold (1993) 1998): describes in Tangshan, Spitak and parts of Tokyo. Much of the best comparative research on post-disaster Substantial sources of external funding, provided recovery has studied disasters rather than catastrophes quickly, and with as few restrictions as possible. (e.g., Rubin, Saperstein, & Barbee, 1985), which means Strong local leadership. that some of their findings may or may not hold for Cooperation between city, state and federal officials. larger events. Local, citizen-based processes for making and Nations with fewer resources are obviously at a reviewing reconstruction decisions. disadvantage in recovering from disasters. When Previous planning documents, which describe con- developing nations are struck by disaster, however, sensus policies for future development. foreign financial assistance can go a long way towards Pre-existing planning institutions. helping recovery. In contrast, rebuilding after catastrophic disasters in developed nations (e.g., Kobe, New The ongoing recovery process in New Orleans reminds Orleans) presents financial challenges of international us that, when none of these ingredients exists, we must significance. There is little research on the financial improvise. It is for challenging cases such as post- implications of a catastrophic disaster in a developed Katrina New Orleans that future research is most nation. These nations must finance the cost of recovery needed. themselves, and the considerable costs can have significant and far-reaching economic effects. This is 2.5.2. Research needs and challenges a particular problem for earthquakes, which have much In addition to continued collection of recovery case less insurance coverage than floods or hurricanes. For studies, synthesis of comparative cases, and explora- future disasters, it would be helpful to have a better tion of the use of plans and information in managing understanding of these financial issues, both at the the tension between speed and deliberation, several individual and community scales. key research challenges remain: managing citizen involvement in a high-speed planning environment, 2.6. Conclusions distinguishing catastrophes from disasters, and financing large-scale urban reconstruction in developed Disasters disrupt human settlements, and their nations. effects extend over time. Contrary to popular belief, Post-disaster planning is a high-speed version of disasters are not simply instantaneous occurrences, but normal planning, proceeding faster than the speed of rather they are perturbations to urban systems that flow of the most basic information upon which planning reflect longstanding environmental, economic and normally depends. This means that none of the social issues. In turn, they exacerbate those issues in participants quite knows what anyone else is doing, the years following the event. This critical post-disaster nor how their own activity fits into the big picture recovery period poses both challenges and opportunities (because no one yet understands the big picture). for urban planners. H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250 209

Research has only recently begun to deﬁne and Together, the two lines of emergent research sum- understand key aspects of the post-disaster recovery marised in this paper represent major contributions by process. Key goals of this research include: the planning ﬁeld towards an understanding of disaster recovery. Quantitative indicators and systems models Understanding the process of recovery of house- provide a comprehensive perspective on recovery at the holds, businesses, neighbourhoods and economies. urban scale, highlighting the role of intra-regional Understanding cause and effect relationships over linkages between elements of the built environment, time will lead to more informed interventions. economy and society that contribute towards disaster Understanding how to design and manage institutions loss and recovery. Research on post-disaster planning and planning processes to operate effectively in the processes, institutions and management has contributed uniquely constrained post-disaster environment. In numerous cases that describe the role of planning and particular, development management and planning planners in facilitating recovery. Some basic guiding processes must be sensitive to the tension between principles have emerged from this work that can help speed and deliberation, as well as to the stresses planners after future disasters, but much more needs to felt by citizens, organisations and governments in be done. post-disaster time frames. Post-disaster recovery is an exciting frontier of Continuing to build a database of cases, while also planning research. It encompasses the great breadth of beginning to synthesise lessons from comparative issues of all the sub-disciplines of planning, but in an cases. extreme environment. Rebuilding after catastrophic Applying multiple methods, in order to increase disasters, in particular, challenges all the skills that understanding of the challenges of recovery. These planners possess. Moreover, disasters also provide would include careful ethnographic research to better unique opportunities to improve people’s lives for the understand the effects of recovery and post-disaster future. Disasters will continue to occur throughout the policy actions on households and communities, as well world, and there is great need for planning research in as quantitative modelling of key recovery indicators order to improve the management of the post-disaster over time. process. 210 H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250

Chapter 3. Planning and climate change: an They apply a range of skills in technical, economic and emerging research agenda policy analysis, and facilitate intergovernmental collaboration and stakeholder involvement for creative Stephen M. Wheeler, John Randolph and James B. problem solving. Human response to climate change London needs these skills at a variety of sectors and levels: in crafting international agreements; in developing 3.1. Introduction national, regional, state/provincial and local policies; in creating innovative designs and plans for commu- Climate change is emerging as one of the most nities, buildings, transportation and electricity; in important issues of the 21st century. The scientific educating public officials, private firms and citizens; evidence has become steadily stronger over the past 30 and in engaging wide participation in all of these years (IPCC, 1991, 1995, 2001, 2007a; NAS, 1979; activities in the quest for climate protection. WMO, 1979), and the topic has gained increasing While action at the international, national and state public attention (e.g., Gore, 2006). Yet, to date, levels is critical, it is largely in our communities where academic and professional planners, whose mission is carbon emissions originate, where people live and feel preparing for the future, have not taken a leading role in the effects of climate change, and where solutions to assessing the implications of accelerated climate climate change must originate. Our communities must change or in drafting planning instruments for addres- be first responders to both the problems of and the sing climate change phenomena (London, 2007). solutions to climate change. While some analysts pose The purpose of this paper is to consider a research the question: ‘Is the issue of climate change too big for agenda that could assist the planning profession in spatial planning?’ (Campbell, 2006), the problem of assuming a lead role on this important topic. Such climate change cannot be adequately addressed without research will of course draw upon work in many other innovations in the traditional spatial planning domains fields, such as climate science, engineering, energy of land use, transportation, infrastructure and buildings. conservation, economics, policy sciences, and design. Perhaps a better question is ‘Can climate change be But the planning profession has a number of unique managed without the involvement of community spatial research needs, centred on how to use information from planners?’ We argue the answer is ‘no’, because (a) many different fields to develop effective climate actions at the national level and in most of the states and change policies and programmes, and how to overcome provinces have been insufficient and local action is political, institutional and economic barriers to action. needed to pick up the slack; (b) adapting to the impacts Relatively little work has been done on these topics to of climate change must involve innovative spatial and date. environmental planning for land use, transportation, Our emphasis here is on research that can support natural hazard mitigation and water supply; (c) specific, practical efforts to address climate change educating officials, private firms and citizens about through planning and policy at various levels of the impacts of climate change and the actions for government. We will not dwell on work concerning climate protection requires local planning champions; international treaties and agreements, as this is more the and (d) mitigating the effects of climate change by realm of international law and political science, but, reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions requires rather, will focus on how goals set at such broad levels major innovations in community energy efficiency, can be implemented locally, regionally, and at state or including buildings, land use and transportation, and national scales. That being said, as with most community choice of power sources, issues within the sustainable development initiatives, multiple levels domain of local planning. must be considered simultaneously, and better under- Already we are seeing communities throughout the standings are essential of how planning mechanisms at world take on the challenges of responding to climate each level can reinforce similar efforts at other scales change by joining ICLEI’s Cities for Climate Protection (Wheeler, 2004). or Climate Resilient Cities programmes, Cool Cities, We view planning as the set of approaches and and other organisations. Although these cities have processes for ‘applying knowledge to action’ (Fried- made a political commitment to address climate change, mann, 1987) or simply ‘figuring out what needs to be they and their planning departments are just beginning done and how to do it’ (Randolph, 2004). Planners to develop and implement programmes to reach these operate at all levels of government, in the private sector, goals (Wheeler, 2008). We hope this research agenda and in non-governmental civil society organisations. will set the stage for clearer direction to these efforts. H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250 211

We focus primarily on planners’ role in mitigating wind, solar, biomass) and nuclear; developing greenhouse gas emissions, but also discuss their role in carbon capture and storage (CCS) of fossil fuel adapting to the effects of climate change, believing that combustion emissions. the two tasks are complementary and should be viewed (2) Transportation: greater fuel efficiency, use of together as part of the broader task of climate change alternative fuels, and ‘smart growth’ land use and planning. Research from energy planning, transporta- neighbourhood design for more effective public tion, growth management and green building fields transit and non-motorised modes of transportation. relates to the first research area, as does general research (3) Buildings: greater building envelope efficiency, on sustainable development. Work from the disaster appliance and lighting efficiency, and other ‘green preparedness, risk management, and environmental building’ measures. impact mitigation fields relates to the second of these (4) Industry: more efficient ‘life-cycle’ operations and topics, although usually without specific reference to materials use. climate change. New needs have also emerged to (5) Agriculture: conservation tillage and other means to research tracking and modelling of emissions, and the reduce carbon release from soils, more efficient use effectiveness of particular regulatory, incentive and of pesticides and fertilisers, and methane capture market-based strategies for reducing them. In addition, from manure. research on specific tools to guide local planning for (6) Forestry: greater reforestation and less deforesta- carbon-neutral neighbourhoods, communities and cam- tion. puses appears much needed (AASHE, 2006). (7) Waste management: more efficient waste manage- Global warming is an enormous challenge that will ment and landfill gas recovery. most likely confront societies for many decades to come. Given the vast scope of the topic, it is difficult to Undertaking myriad actions in these and other areas is be comprehensive about research needs, and these one basic approach towards mitigating GHG emissions. needs will undoubtedly change over time. However, we Another approach is to concentrate on particular sectors believe that it is very important to attempt to outline in which intense activity can produce large emissions such needs, to focus on them as a profession, and to seek savings. In an influential article in Science magazine, to develop sources of support and opportunities for Pacala and Socolow (2004) promoted such a ‘wedges’ collaboration. With that in mind, we present the strategy. They estimated that a total reduction of seven following discussion. Gigatons carbon/year (GtC/yr) would be needed by 2054 below a projected ‘business as usual’ trend in 3.2. Planners’ role in mitigating climate change order to move towards atmospheric stabilisation of 500 ppm. Reducing carbon emissions can potentially slow the They then divided these seven GtC/yr into seven one- rate of climate change and decrease the overall effects. GtC/yr ‘wedges’, and presented the following options Pre-industrial (<1750) atmospheric concentration of for achieving one or more of these wedges: carbon dioxide of 280 parts per million (ppm) has increased to 384 ppm today (Blasing, 2008). Without Energy efficiency in buildings and transportation: mitigation, it would rise to at least 700 ppm and perhaps four wedges or four GtC/yr as much as 1,000 ppm by late in this century. Many Renewable energy sources: four wedges or four scientists now believe that stabilising concentrations at GtC/yr 450 ppm or even 350 ppm will be necessary to keep the Carbon dioxide capture and storage: three wedges or consequences of climate change manageable, though three GtC/yr still requiring considerable adaptation costs (Hansen Forestry and agricultural soils: two wedges or two et al., 2008; Luers, Mastrandea, Hayhoe, & Frumhoff, GtC/yr 2007; McKibben, 2007). Nuclear power: one GtC/yr There are many ways to mitigate atmospheric carbon. The IPCC (2007c) outlined actions in several sectors: For either of these approaches, planning will play a critical role at all levels of government through (1) Energy supply: shifting from high-carbon fossil fuel technical analysis, collaborative processes, policy to low-carbon fossil (coal to natural gas) and to non- development, programme development, implementa- carbon sources, including renewable energy (e.g., tion and evaluation. 212 H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250

3.2.1. Plan and policy development have three parts: improving the analysis and tracking of Hundreds of communities around the world, as well emissions on municipal, business and household levels; as national and state-level governments, are developing modelling future emissions under various mitigation and implementing climate action plans. Many commu- policy scenarios; and developing the data necessary to nities are following the simple planning and imple- evaluate speciﬁc programmes. mentation process developed by ICLEI—Local Governments for Sustainability (2003): 3.2.1.2. Setting targets. Although many states, municipalities and nations explicitly adopted Kyoto targets in (1) Conduct a baseline emissions inventory and fore- the 1990s and 2000s, new goals will be needed after the cast. 2008–2012 Kyoto target period, and the question of (2) Adopt an emissions reduction target. appropriate long-term emissions reduction goals remains (3) Develop a local climate action plan. an open one. An increasing popular long-term target, (4) Implement policies and measures. adopted by the state of California and others, is 80% (5) Monitor and verify results. below 1990 emissions by 2050. The city of Leicester, UK has adopted one of the most ambitious nearer-term These wide-ranging experiences provide a goldmine of targets, aiming to reduce emissions 50% from 1990 levels information for research into which practices work and by 2025, and as of 2004 that city had achieved savings which do not. Bulkeley and Betsill (2003, 2005), Bailey of 20–30% in some areas of energy use (Fleming & (2007), and Wheeler (2008) provide overviews of early Webber, 2004). Rather than setting targets such as these, climate change planning efforts. Some case study however, other groups have proposed rolling emissions research has been done on such planning efforts (e.g., reductions strategies. Friends of the Earth in the UK, Hanemann & Farrell, 2006; Lanbright, Changnon, & for example, has campaigned for a national goal of Harvey, 1996; Pew Center, 2007, 2008; Rabe, 2002; reducing emissions three percent per year (FOE, 2005). Wexler & Conbere, 1992), but additional case study and Renewable energy portfolio standards are another survey research can yield further information about form of target. These vary widely, ranging from 33% by different approaches to climate action planning (Pitt & 2020 for California to 7.5% by 2019 for Maryland (Pew Randolph, 2009). Early examples show that it is relatively Center, n.d.; Wheeler, 2008). Some other states, such as easy for local governments to set emissions reductions Texas, Minnesota and Iowa, have chosen just to set a goals, but much harder to implement the programmes and megawatt target for renewable production. policies required to meet them. Additional research into Speciﬁc research into how targets should best be set implementation strategies and political consensus build- and progress towards them evaluated can help establish ing around this issue appears to be needed. this very crucial baseline of climate change policy.

3.2.1.1. Tracking and modelling emissions. Good 3.2.1.3. Large-scale policy options: cap-and-trade, GHG emissions data at multiple levels is needed to taxation, regulation, rationing of emissions. Once develop, track and evaluate mitigation programmes. goals are set, a number of broad policy approaches Initial efforts in the 1990s to analyse local emissions exist to meet them. The main types of policy approaches extrapolated from national data; these were found to be include regulation (for example, mandating energy- relatively accurate in predicting overall emissions by fuel efficient products and buildings), market-based strate- type, but less accurate in estimating emissions by sector gies (e.g., cap-and-trade frameworks in which emis- (Easterling et al., 1998). In the 2000s much more sions permits are sold), taxation (e.g., a carbon tax such extensive local emission registries have been set up, as instituted by Boulder (CO) in 2008), or rationing which are being networked into centralised data banks 11 (through which citizens are given per capita emissions such as The Climate Registry. Protocol and software allowances to be redeemed when purchasing energy or developed by ICLEI (2003) helps communities inven- products). Many of these broad approaches need to be tory GHG emissions, and cities throughout the world adopted at national, state or regional scales, but local are applying these methods. But this work is still very governments can implement some as well. For example, much in progress. Research in this area will need to cities and counties typically regulate buildings, land use and some forms of materials use, and can adopt a wide variety of market-based strategies to reduce driving, 11 See: http://www.theclimateregistry.org (accessed 23 September pollution or consumption of carbon-intensive products. 2009). Research into all possible options is needed, and H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250 213 detailed proposals for different levels of government Community education and action for GHG emission can help advance debate (e.g., Brown, 2008; Monbiot, reduction, energy efficiency and environmental 2007a; Moss, 1999). protection. One related question is to what extent voluntary incentives can reduce GHG emissions, and to what Developing a municipal energy plan is an obvious first extent public sector regulation and mandates are step, and several cities have drafted stand-alone energy required. Given the urgency of climate change, the plans. These planning exercises provide a focused effort latter may be desirable in many cases. For example, to galvanise both local government and community more than 100 local governments in the US have action. Such planning efforts also must engage electric outlawed Styrofoam containers, and some such as San utilities and other energy providers. But localities also Francisco and Oakland, have prohibited use of plastic can integrate energy concerns into their core planning bags at grocery stores. Australia is planning to outlaw elements addressing land use, buildings, housing, incandescent light bulbs by 2012, and Brazil is utilities, transit, infrastructure and environmental considering similar action. Purchase of certain car- sustainability. Energy needs to be addressed in bon-intensive motor vehicles or watercraft might community, comprehensive and general plans to be eventually be prohibited. The emissions benefits of part of the community’s vision for the future. It should such steps need to be carefully compared with those be a focus of public discourse and participation. from voluntary measures and incentives. Energy improvements can be implemented through state and local regulations, incentives and assistance 3.2.2. Reducing emissions of greenhouse gases in policies, including land use and building regulations, particular sectors capital investment plans and partnerships with the 3.2.2.1. Energy planning. Governments at many private sector and community groups (Flavin, 2008). levels became active in their attention to energy in The most effective programmes have a committed and the late 1970s and early 1980s, when energy markets educated public constituency, a champion elected were in crisis and energy was a high priority. The early official, and a dedicated and knowledgeable staff. A experience of communities like Portland (OR), Seattle leading example in the US was Chicago’s 2001 energy (WA) and Davis (CA) showed that local communities plan, which included city operations, a green buildings could make a difference in energy use and that their campaign, a Commonwealth Edison contract for traditional authority over land use, building, transit and renewable power, and cogeneration and distributed transportation, and in some cases utilities was a means energy project development. The Climate Protection to achieve more efficient and sustainable energy use Advisory Committee (2004) also gave strong evidence (Bailey, 2007; Kron & Randolph, 1983). that carbon reduction was not only achievable but could When energy prices dropped by the mid-1980s, have significant economic as well as environmental energy faded as a high priority for communities relative benefits. New York’s 2007 PlaNYC (City of New York, to other issues. But after the energy price increases of 2007) includes a range of measures to reduce the city’s the early 1990s and emerging public and consumer emissions 30% below 2005 levels by 2030. demands for greater liveability, sustainability and Municipally owned utilities have also instituted climate protection, several common themes have programmes. Or in some US states with deregulation provided a foundation for addressing energy issues rules or specific legislation, municipalities can aggre- more substantively at the local level. They include: gate their citizens’ demand into a unit and bid the community’s electricity service to competing suppliers. Smart growth and land use controls addressing urban In community choice aggregation (CCA), communities sprawl; have the option to become the default provider and can Compact, mixed-use, and pedestrian- and transit- serve their own citizens. Massachusetts passed the first oriented development; Community Choice law in 1999 and several states Light rail transit and other vehicle miles travelled followed suit, including Ohio, California, Rhode Island (VMT) reduction programmes to relieve traffic and New Jersey. San Francisco has been a leader in congestion and improve air quality; community choice and following its lead at least 14 Green building programmes and building energy cities and counties and one consortium of 12 cities are in codes; various stages of forming a CCA. These communities Public power, community choice and distributed have a goal of achieving a 40% renewable energy resources (both generation and transmission); and portfolio. Research is needed on most of these energy 214 H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250 planning strategies, for example on barriers and compact, community-oriented, mixed-use, and pedes- obstacles to CCA and the effectiveness of CCA in trian and transit-oriented development. Smart growth is promoting the development of renewable energy seen by many as a necessary strategy to reduce vehicle systems. miles travelled and building energy use to mitigate carbon emissions (Ewing et al., 2007; Rosen, 2008). 3.2.2.2. Transportation. Transportation sources These development designs lead to the most energy- account for about 14% of greenhouse gas emissions efficient and lowest carbon-producing households. worldwide (World Resources Institute, 2009), and much Many specific factors related to land use are likely to more within industrialised countries. The transportation be important in reducing vehicle use and related share is 28% of greenhouse gas emissions in the US emissions: the mix of land uses within a neighbourhood, (US EPA, 2007, ES 15), and more than 40% in states the density of development, the connectivity of the such as California, which are highly automobile- street network, and the design of streets, buildings and oriented and have lower energy consumption from public spaces. Information on the nature and relative building heating and cooling (CEC, 2006). So research weighting of these factors will be useful so as to into reducing emissions from vehicles will clearly be a prioritise changes in public policy and investment. large part of the mitigation research agenda. However, transportation behaviour has other determi- A large body of work already exists in the field of nants as well, with pricing, income, lifestyle and the transportation planning. Many strategies to reduce availability of alternative modes playing a major role, as single-occupant vehicle use, promote public transit, and well as land use. Relatively little work has been done utilise energy-efficient or alternative fuel vehicles have thus far specifically linking such factors to greenhouse been investigated, and some writings explicitly link gas emissions. such steps to greenhouse gas mitigation (e.g., Batac & Forestry and urban forestry programmes bear major Lem, 2008; Delucchi, 1999; Newman, 2006). These implications for GHG emissions as well. Many strategies include steps such as compact, balanced land questions arise. To what extent is forest cover in use; pedestrian-, bike- and transit-friendly neighbour- temperate latitudes desirable to sequester carbon, or hood design, vastly improved bus and rail transit, and will reforestation programmes have a negative impact revised economic incentives for different transport by lowering the planet’s albedo in areas that would modes. The barriers to implementation are often ones of otherwise be covered by highly reflective snow in the political will, resources, cultural attitudes and struc- winter? How can forests in lower latitudes be preserved tured incentives in favour of expanded motor vehicle or restored in the face of urbanisation and exploitation, use. Given the urgency of reducing GHG emissions, since they clearly have many positive climactic impacts new approaches to implementing these strategies will (e.g., Pielke, 2005)? To what extent do urban heat need to be explored. Are new state or federal standards islands or higher surface temperatures in deforested for vehicle emissions or mileage desirable, and if so areas contribute to thunderstorms that may serve as heat how strict should they be? Should cellulosic biofuels or pumps to convey warmth into the stratosphere and other alternative fuels be promoted, and if so, how? northwards? Clarity on scientific issues in such cases Should society consider a shift to a hydrogen-powered needs to be paired with research on types of policies to fleet, and if so, how would the infrastructure for that be better manage land cover in both temperate and tropical created? How can air travel, by far the most damaging latitudes. per passenger mile in terms of global warming, be made less harmful, and if not, how can the amount that people 3.2.2.4. Building design and regulation. Building fly be reduced? Such questions beg further exploration. heating, cooling, ventilation and lighting—all of which are greatly influenced by building design—account for a 3.2.2.3. Land use. Land use is accepted as the domain large share of GHG emissions (and as much as 48% of of the local planner, and it has a significant effect on energy consumption in the US (Mazria, 2003)). Very transportation patterns, vehicle miles travelled, and basic strategies that could save large amounts of energy, energy use. Many communities, some with the such as passive solar design, natural ventilation and assistance or prodding of state directives, have engaged natural daylighting, are rarely used by the building in growth management planning and policies to direct industry. How to integrate such strategies into building growth to areas of existing infrastructure and redeve- codes and industry practice is a pressing policy question lopment. These efforts seem to be playing well in the (Sentman, 2008). How to retrofit existing structures so market, and consumer preference is growing for as to save energy and lower emissions is an urgent H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250 215 question as well. Investigation is needed into innovative 2030. California is already considering incorporating building technologies, such as use of ambient ground such standards into its Title 24 code, and the federal temperatures for heating and cooling, as well as into Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 has a techniques to assess the carbon footprint of structures goal of NZE for all new commercial buildings by 2030, overall. The eventual ideal may be for many structures for 50% of all commercial buildings by 2040, and all to avoid traditional heating and cooling systems commercial buildings in the US by 2050 (NSTC, 2008). altogether, such as has been done in Germany by the It has also become evident that the extraction, passivhaus movement (Passiv Haus Institute, 2007) and processing, manufacture, construction and demolition at a few US sites, such as a new dormitory at Portland of buildings and their component materials also State University (PSU, 2007). The usefulness and best consume considerable energy and impact the environ- configuration of green building certification systems is a ment. These considerations for embodied energy and related research question. Systems such as LEED waste management have been integrated into the green (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design) have building movement. gained widespread visibility, but these may need to be Randolph and Masters (2008) suggest that this revised to more explicitly document the carbon evolution from building envelope to the whole building footprint of structures and encourage reductions. to life-cycle green building continues, and they envision Most local governments adopt statewide building a ‘whole community’ approach to energy, where energy codes that comply with the model International efficient, green buildings with grid-connected on-site Energy Conservation Code. However, it is local power generation serve as building blocks for sustain- government that implements the code by inspecting able, compact, mixed use, pedestrian and transit- compliance and issuing building and occupancy oriented neighbourhoods. Already we see elements of permits. The value of the regulations is only as good this Whole Community Energy approach in several as the compliance. How enforcement can be improved cities and in emerging rating schemes like LEED-ND is a worthy research topic. Many communities are (neighbourhood development). Additional research is allowed to go beyond the standard code to require more needed, both to identify the challenges and opportu- stringent energy efficiency measures. Sometimes this nities faced by communities implementing different experience effects changes in higher-level codes. Such elements of Whole Community Energy, and to evaluate was the case in Davis (CA) in the early 1980s. As a the energy savings and GHG emission reduction of its result of builders’ experience in Davis (principally specific design elements. Michael and Judy Corbett’s Village Homes subdivision), Davis developed one of the country’s most 3.2.2.5. Industry. The largest industrial emissions stringent building energy codes (Corbett & Corbett, sources are cement manufacture, iron and steel 2000). Subsequently, California based its Title 24 production, manufacture of ammonia, lime and nitric standards on Davis’ building code. Collecting and acid, and production of coolants such as HFC and analysing such local best practices could bear much HCFC-22, which substitute for more ozone-depleting fruit. refrigerants. Research into emissions reduction strate- Managing energy in buildings has long focused on gies for such carbon-intensive industries will be needed. the thermal envelope and heating, ventilation and air There are a number of no regrets energy conservation conditioning systems because these have been the major and technology options that will become more viable as energy uses. However, with the growth of appliances energy becomes more expensive (e.g., Lovins & Lovins, and electronic equipment greater attention has been 1999). Research into local economic development recently given to these other uses. Building space and strategies that incentivise these options could bear early water heating amount to one-third of building primary fruit. energy, while electricity use for cooling, refrigeration, electronics and other appliances constitutes two-thirds. 3.2.2.6. Agriculture. Agriculture represents about This fact has led to a more comprehensive approach to 14% of GHG emissions globally, mainly in the form building energy—what many refer to as the ‘whole of nitrogen oxides from fertiliser use and methane building’ approach. Dramatically improved building from manure. Strategies for widespread reductions efficiency (up to 70% better than code buildings today), in these sources will be needed, as well as better combined with on-site solar PV (photovoltaics) will modelling of potential emissions reductions (Paustian probably provide ‘net-zero energy’ (NZE) residential et al., 1998; McCarl & Schneider, 2001). Techniques buildings by 2020 and NZE commercial buildings by for agricultural production using fewer nitrogen-based 216 H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250 fertilisers will be crucial. Much basic research will such as by improving the status of women, is important come from plant sciences and related professions, but as well. the appropriate policy strategies and incentives to Equally difficult is the challenge of addressing spread such practices will need to be developed, questions of consumption levels within society. Even if tested, and evaluated. population is stabilised and production is made less Biofuels have significant potential to reduce GHG carbon-intensive, if overall per capita consumption rises emissions by replacing petroleum in future transporta- such gains will be partially negated. This question of tion systems. However, a main question will be how lifestyles and consumption affects many daily planning these can be grown without negatively impacting decisions. Should Wal-Mart be allowed into a commu- world markets for food crops. State and national plans nity, or rejected in part because it encourages the may be necessary to determine the proper extent of purchase of large volumes of cheap carbon-intensive biofuels production, desirable crop types and loca- products? Should vendors of recreational vehicles or tions, and strategies to mitigate impacts on world carbon-spewing SUVs likewise be discouraged? Should agricultural product markets. The stakes in this area municipalities raise fees on refuse collection to are huge: inappropriate allocation of too much discourage waste? Should policies to discourage cropland to biofuels could result in starvation for long-distance commuting be developed? Should car- millions worldwide. The shift from food crops (e.g., bon-intensive products be taxed in some way? Certain corn and soybeans) to non-food biomass (e.g., types of research can help guide the planning response cellulose and algae) will be essential if biofuels are to such questions. Good information on the carbon to displace petroleum without impacts on the world content of products and the development of appropriate food system. labelling requirements can help inform consumers and policymakers. Studies of the effects of various 3.2.2.7. Landfills and waste. Some 3.6% of the incentives for the purchase of green products and for world’s greenhouse gas emissions come from landfills reducing other sorts of consumption and waste and other components of waste processing systems, production would be useful as well, as would research largely in the form of methane generated by decom- into potential networks for reuse of materials and position. Such emissions are among the most easily reduction of consumption generally. dealt with; they can be mitigated by capping landfills, Basic economic development strategies will need to collecting the methane, and sequestering it below- be rethought to move towards a carbon-neutral ground or burning it to produce power that could replace economy. Emphasis on petrochemical industries and more carbon-intensive fuel sources such as coal. Many other carbon-intensive polluters will need to be such operations are already under way. In addition to drastically reduced. The outlines of a truly green scientific and engineering work related to such economy are now only dimly understood (see, e.g., processes, policy studies could help to show how such Birkeland, 2008; Friedman, 2008; Hawken, 1993; practices could be spread more universally. Hawken, Lovins, & Lovins, 1999) and cannot be discussed further here. But much research into 3.2.2.8. Population, consumption and economic devel- alternative economic development, both theoretical opment. Angel et al. (1998) point out that some of the and applied, will be essential. most basic drivers of global warming emissions are changes in population, affluence and/or consumption, 3.2.3. Need for early planning action and technology. Economic development strategies in The cumulative nature of greenhouse gas emissions turn promote some of these underlying trends. means that early planning action is more important than Population growth is a subject that most environ- later action. A mitigation programme adopted next year mentalists and planners shy away from, but addressing is much more valuable than the same programme it is essential. Otherwise improvements in the carbon adopted in 10, 20 or 30 years. Mitigations adopted many intensity of production may be offset by expanded decades down the line may in fact be relatively population, especially in those countries with high per meaningless, in that atmospheric concentrations of capita emissions. Given the extraordinary difficulty of greenhouse gases may already be so high that they will raising family planning issues in many nations, have set in motion positive feedback loops to warm the including the US, research into educational strategies planet greatly for many thousands of years. Monbiot around this issue can be useful. Further exploration into (2007a) for example warns that if emissions are not strategies that can reduce population growth worldwide, reduced to some 90% of current levels by 2030 the H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250 217 thawing of Siberian permafrost may release such large 3.3.1. Vulnerability assessment quantities of methane as to greatly accelerate planetary Translating physical change scenarios at the global heating. In this respect global warming is different from and continental scale onto regional and sub-regional many other planning problems. Local air pollutants scales to assess vulnerabilities is an important research usually disperse in a period of a few days. Traffic area. That research will require interdisciplinary teams congestion is transitory and can be reduced when new to decipher complex natural phenomena for the public transportation facilities are built or demand manage- and policymakers. Vulnerabilities will vary by region, ment programmes implemented. Housing crises can be sector and demographic unit. The most likely physical alleviated by new construction. Local unemployment occurrences associated with climate change are can be reduced over a period of years through economic projected to be temperature change, change in development initiatives. But because carbon emissions precipitation patterns, sea level rise, and frequency persist, a slow or incremental approach towards and intensity of tropical storms (IPCC, 2007b). reducing them may be disastrous. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has 3.3.1.1. Temperature change. Changing temperature argued that global warming is categorically different will have impacts on natural, cultivated and urbanised from many other public policy issues in other ways too landscapes. Migration patterns for other species are now (IPCC, 2001). These differences include the global constrained by the human footprint (Parmesan & nature of the problem, its long-term character, the Galbraith, 2004), and more information is needed on pervasiveness of associated human activities, the stress points and impediments to migration pathways in presence of uncertainties about the magnitude of future order to frame adaptation strategies for conservation. changes (but not about their basic direction), the Modest increases in temperature may have benefits to irreversible nature of consequences, their uneven upper latitude agriculture, although lower latitude quality across regions, and the lack of existing planning agriculture, particularly for small subsistence farmers, institutions to address the problem. will be more difficult, with heat stress on crops and the So new planning approaches are likely to be presence of invasive species (IPCC, 2007b). But effects needed. Substantial theoretical work may be necessary will vary by crop and location (e.g., Baldocchi & Wong, to understand these. Does the need for near-term 2006), and more information is needed. Urban heat- action justify new types of advocacy planning? Does island effects may exacerbate local impacts of climate it impose certain ethical obligations on planners, change; research will be needed on associated public beyond those already reflected in the AICP Code health issues and strategies to reduce heat islands (e.g., of Ethics? Does it mean that stakeholder-based Stone, 2005). consensus processes need to be deemphasised, since they are apt to be extremely slow and imperfect, or 3.3.1.2. Change in precipitation patterns. Changing that carbon-intensive industries and special interests precipitation patterns and water supply conditions will should be prevented from influencing these processes? have substantial impacts in some areas. Higher altitude Does it mean that new forms of action by national warming is already having impacts on water storage. governments or binding international treaties should Cities dependent on snowpack water, including Calgary be pursued instead? Such questions urgently need and Lima, face diminished water supply (Doucet, exploration. 2007). Chaparral areas of the American West and Australia are experiencing more intense forest fires 3.3. Planners’ role in adapting to climate change because of dryer conditions caused by diminished snowpack storage. In small island settings, modest There are many adaptation options to address climate shifts in precipitation patterns can change wet islands change issues. Research can help planners frame the into dry islands, with substantial impacts on agricultural issues and develop appropriate planning instruments to production (London, 2004, 2007). These changes in address climate change phenomenon. Adaptation water regimes need to be better understood in order to measures will not represent a new field of planning, arrange appropriate adaptation measures. so much as an important new layer to existing planning agendas. Key steps for planning jurisdictions will 3.3.1.3. Sea level rise. Some of the largest long-term include identification of vulnerabilities, valuation of impacts of climate change will result from sea level rise impacts, prioritisation of alternatives, and adoption of in coastal areas. Shoreline change and inundation will appropriate planning instruments. result in property loss, wetland loss and increased risk to 218 H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250 human populations living in vulnerable areas. Increased programmes already exist for dealing with vulnerable vulnerability to coastal storms will be an issue, with areas, including floodplains, coastal zones, and water existing and new development located within expanded shortage areas. Many of those regulations will need to high hazard areas. Research into these topics is be strengthened, including no-build areas for flood- beginning (e.g., Walsh et al., 2004), but much more plains or steep slopes. Building codes in high hazard is needed. areas will need to be strengthened as the level of risk increases. Setbacks from waterways and coastal 3.3.1.4. Tropical storms. Although some debate has shorelines will need to be tightened and made more lingered on this issue, the general consensus is that dynamic to adapt to changing natural conditions. For tropical storms will increase in frequency and intensity new development, it could be argued that vulnerable with the presence of still warmer tropical waters. That areas should be either no-build areas, or areas in which likelihood, combined with rapid development in coastal individuals build at their own risk. Under those areas, increases the potential for substantial loss of pro- conditions, new development would occur with the perty and human life. Effective damage prevention and understanding that property owners may have to disaster response strategies must be better understood. relocate at their own expense if the water comes lapping at their door (Titus, 1990). Revised flood hazard 3.3.2. Valuation and prioritisation maps will be needed to guide such planning efforts. As vulnerabilities are assessed, prioritisation will be For existing development in vulnerable areas, the necessary to focus resources on meeting areas of rules may be somewhat different. In many cases, greatest concern. That will require some valuation of relocation may be the least cost option under long-term impacts. Valuation of natural systems will be necessary climate change conditions. Yet, how is such relocation to give them some weighting relative to human systems. to be encouraged, required or paid for? Should there be Still, quantification issues and the fact that values are a time period or amortisation schedule applied to typically measured in terms of derived human values existing development assembled under previous reg- will probably leave natural systems undervalued. ulatory guidelines? These questions have important life Important natural and cultural systems may warrant and safety, as well as fiscal implications. Provisions ‘save at all cost status’, and a means of weighting and/or must be made to accommodate disadvantaged segments prioritisation will be necessary to protect those special of society, who will disproportionately bear the brunt of places. For human systems, it will be important to natural disasters because of their housing locations. quantify likely property loss in particular places from Climate change may become the ultimate environ- some of the above impacts, and options and costs of mental justice challenge of the next century, and alternative corrective actions. Researching these topics research into environmental justice implications of this can help prioritise adaptation actions. subject is much needed. For areas subject to high or even modest vulner- 3.3.3. A framework for adaptation abilities, adaptation to climate change will affect all 3.3.3.1. Structural solutions. In some locations, aspects of the planning process, starting with the including coastal cities where substantial sunk capital comprehensive plan and including all aspects of spatial exists, structural solutions may be appropriate to protect planning (Wilson, 2006). Anticipatory planning must assets. Barnett and Beckman (2007) discuss structural play a more significant role, with implications for land solutions to protect against sea level rise in Boston, New use, water resources, infrastructure and the economy. York, Miami and San Francisco Bay along the lines of the Thames River barrier in London. Those options will 3.4. Planners’ roles in the institutions and politics be expensive, but may be feasible in areas facing of climate change substantial stranded assets. Structural solutions will need to be evaluated to assess technical, economic and A number of institutional, political and educational political feasibility. challenges face planning for either adaptation or mitigation, and research into these is important, in 3.3.3.2. Non-structural solutions. Non-structural addition to work on particular content areas. solutions also must involve good information, including the identification of vulnerable or high hazard areas that 3.4.1. Planning processes and implementation warrant particular attention. Options include both One main set of questions concerns how overall regulatory and incentive based instruments. Regulatory climate change plans might be developed and posi- H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250 219 tioned within the planning process. To start with, which waukee and Newcastle NSW). The factors that these goals, policies and programmes are best developed at researchers found to be most important were: which levels of government, how should these best be implemented, and how should these initiatives relate to (1) the presence of a committed individual with other types of planning? institutional support for promoting climate protec- Some types of planning, goal-setting, and action tion; should clearly be international in scope. Additional (2) the availability of funding for climate protection generations of global agreement will be needed, and a measures; totally different institutional architecture may be (3) the level of local power over transport, energy and required to respond to the problem of global warming planning; (Baumert & Kete, 2002, Chapter 1; Victor, 2001). Many (4) the way climate protection is framed, particularly in policy questions remain. Should a framework of relation to economic objectives; and national caps on GHG emissions be adopted, and if (5) the political will to act (Bulkeley & Betsill, 2003: 4). so how should these be weighted and how are the initial allocations to be made? Should caps be fixed or How the prospect of climate change might affect other, dynamic, and if the latter how should they change over more tangentially related planning and capital invest- time? Should emissions trading on an international ment strategies is a final process question. Socolow scale be allowed, as envisioned under the Kyoto (2005) suggests that governments may want to avoid Protocol, and if so how can limits be enforced and all investing in facilities of any sort, from power plants to nations enticed to take part? Should some version of the buildings, which may be seen as having inappropriate polluter pays principle be applied, as Brazil has climate impacts a few years down the road. Wellington suggested, so that those nations with the greatest et al., 2007 argue that climate change will become ‘a responsibility for global warming make the greatest defining fact of economic development’ shaping reductions (La Rovere, de Macedo, & Baumert, 2002)? technology, investment and human development around Should global warming initiatives be developed as part the world. New environmental review requirements that of broader sustainable development policies? programmes be subject to analysis of global warming What sort of international mechanisms should impacts may complicate the process of capital invest- enforce whatever agreements are arrived at? Other ment. Exploration of these and other impacts through- types of climate change planning are probably best out the public sector will be necessary. undertaken at a national level, such as the setting of technology standards, tax policies including carbon 3.4.2. Economic barriers taxes, and major energy and transportation policy. At a The current economic crisis and recession compli- regional scale, impacts of climate change related to cates the need for investment required to implement the changed precipitation patterns, vegetation, coastlines, wide range of measures to reduce carbon emissions. agriculture, and tourism may be expressed most States and localities had already cited economic profoundly, and research and planning on these subjects constraints as a chief barrier to climate action plan may be required (Rubin et al., 1997). At a local scale, implementation before the recession hit (Pitt & the most effective policies and programmes related to Randolph, 2009). At least in the short term, work basic local government services such as waste manage- may be needed to develop and implement no- and low- ment, transportation and development regulation will cost energy efficiency opportunities that can save need to be determined. money while reducing energy and emissions. Once plans are developed the question of implementation is crucial. Few governments anywhere in the 3.4.3. Political barriers world have met Kyoto goals, and those targets are far Closely related to the question of implementation is weaker than what many feel is needed to mitigate future the problem of political opposition. This parallels more climate change. Study of best practice examples can general problems with opposition to any sort of help a great deal in understanding the prerequisites for planning. But, given the urgency of responding to successful implementation. In one initial contribution global warming, such barriers must be overcome. More along this line, Bulkeley and Betsill (2003) prepared specific understanding of the political forces opposing case studies of six local governments internationally action on climate change is needed, and these forces that had prepared global warming plans (Newcastle must be exposed to public scrutiny. In the past excellent upon Tyne, Cambridgeshire, Leicester, Denver, Mil- work has helped expose the ‘growth machines’ 220 H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250 promoting suburban sprawl (e.g., Logan & Molotch, The urgency of global warming may argue for a ban on 1987) and the ‘military-industrial complex’ fuelling such private sector advertising, following similar military spending (e.g., Mills, 1956). Now the contours rationales for bans on cigarettes and alcohol (Monbiot, of the ‘carbon complex’ need to be analysed in ways 2007b). Detailed strategies and supporting data for such that can help the public understand the forces resisting proactive measures would of course be needed. action. Involving the public in developing climate change Equally important is the question of how to generate policies and programmes will be an enormous support for politically difficult steps to adapt to or challenge. Whereas many stakeholder-based planning mitigate climate change. Existing work on collaborative processes have focused on local or regional issues such planning, consensus processes and critical pragmatism as watershed planning which have a limited range of will undoubtedly be useful (e.g., Forester, 1989, 1993; stakeholders and immediate implications for the parties Healey, 1997), as will work on environmental and social involved, climate change is the ultimate long-term, non- change movements generally (e.g., Gottlieb, 1993). But local issue. Virtually everyone is a stakeholder. More- since the scale and range of climate change planning are over, many stakeholders cannot be represented because likely to go beyond any existing collaborative planning they are future generations, non-human species, or processes, new analyses and theory will be needed. In distant communities. How policy should be developed the past five years or so many states have used in such a context raises ethical questions for planners stakeholder processes to develop their climate change that could be explored by theorists. For example, to plans; these offer one fruitful area for case study work. what extent and how should the interests of future Comparative work analysing processes across nations generations or island nations be incorporated? How might be useful as well. Since the coming of peak oil should entire national and indeed global populations be may generate a crisis atmosphere (Newman, 2007) that involved? How should Habermasian conditions of can in turn stimulate progress on issues such as global openness, equal access, equal power, honesty and warming, connections between these two issues and sets transparency be fulfilled in a discourse that has been of strategies to address them might be explored. dominated for centuries by powerful carbon-intensive industries and their political allies? 3.4.4. Public participation and education The speed with which climate change planning needs How to inform and effectively involve the public to occur poses particular problems for public participa- around climate change planning will be a pressing tion and democratic decision-making. There will be a concern for planners. Since the 1970s, utilities have tension between the slowness and uncertainty of faced a similar task in order to promote demand-side stakeholder processes and the need for rapid and strong management (DSM), and their experience may be action (Few, Brown, & Tompkins, 2006). Some see useful. But DSM programmes have aimed to educate global warming as one issue in which lengthy customers on very specific practices, such as use of participatory planning is not appropriate and that compact fluorescent light bulbs, while climate change instead, rapid, top-down action may be necessary to planning will involve a far broader range of behaviours, begin to reduce emissions or prepare for potential often without obvious economic payback. Much climate-related disasters. Others see participation as the broader educational strategies will be necessary, most important approach to build a social movement especially to help participants think ecologically or in necessary to change energy and carbon-emitting systems terms (Tippett, Handley, & Ravetz, 2007). behaviour and to build resilience to the impacts of Social marketing precedents may include campaigns climate change (Randolph, 2008). Both alternatives against smoking, drugs and drunk driving. The framing may need to be researched and presented. of educational materials, for example in terms of local or national impacts, can make a difference in people’s 3.4.5. Planning education response to proposed climate change policies (Moser & Last but not least, thought is needed about how to Dilling, 2007; Yarnal, O’Connor, & Shudak, 2003), and educate planners, both students and current profes- there is an urgent need to know how best to present sionals, on topics related to global warming. Few if any information on this topic. Countering disinformation planning schools so far have coursework specifically campaigns from carbon-based industries and consumer addressing climate change planning. More general advertising for carbon-intensive products is another sustainability curricula are being developed at a number area in which research into new strategies may be of universities (AASHE, 2006), but these are often needed. Counter-messages will need to be developed. based primarily in environmental studies programmes, H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250 221 and have not yet reached the mainstream of planning GHG reductions and how best to monitor emissions at education. Surveys of students and planning educators, different scales, classic planning questions, such as how development of pedagogical materials, and develop- to reduce motor vehicle use and lower the risk of ment of continuing education curricula could all be flooding, social marketing questions, such as how to useful in helping to integrate climate change planning encourage less carbon-consumptive lifestyles, design into planning education. Specific initiatives might be questions, such as how to create more energy-efficient useful, such as that posed within architecture by Ed buildings and communities, political questions regard- Mazria’s Architecture 2030 Challenge to integrate ing how to rally support for action, and theoretical ecological literacy into all design studios (Mazria, questions regarding how to reevaluate local planning 2003). processes in light of this urgent global imperative. Totally new research needs will appear as global 3.5. Conclusion warming proceeds. For example, the threat of sea level rise of as much as 25 metres within a few hundred years Global warming is likely to be among the single (Hansen et al., 2007) raises never-before-seen chal- largest planning challenges of the 21st century. The lenges to coastal communities. Should enormous levee planning profession can play a lead role in helping projects be attempted? Or massive evacuation and society address this challenge. But new research is relocation programmes planned instead? It is safe to say needed in many areas, in order to provide the empirical that the planning profession has never faced such and theoretical backing for the difficult public policy questions before and will have to consider them decisions that lie ahead. Table 1 summarises some of the carefully. most important directions for research. These include While the threat of global warming lends new basic technical questions, such as what targets to set for urgency to many existing forms of planning research,

Table 1 Research needs related to planning and climate change Issue Potential research questions

1. Mitigating climate change Goals What GHG atmospheric concentrations and emissions levels are necessary to achieve? Tracking and modelling emissions What methods are most effective for local governments, businesses and households? Large-scale policy options What approaches or combinations of approaches can be implemented and how? Energy How could community energy planning be most effectively pursued? Transportation and land use How can travel be reduced and lower-carbon modes promoted? Building design and regulation How can we move all new development towards net-carbon-neutral design? How can we retroﬁt the existing building stock? Industry Which industries could yield reductions and how can those be achieved? Agriculture How can fertiliser use, methane emissions and soil carbon emissions be reduced? Landﬁlls and waste What waste handling processes could best reduce methane emissions? Material consumption To what extent should resource consumption be reduced and how? Carbon sinks/sequestration What strategies can be implemented to sequester carbon in forests or below ground?

2. Adapting to climate change Changed temperatures What will be effects on agriculture, tourism, ﬂora and fauna, and human activity? Change in precipitation patterns What precautions are appropriate for drought, ﬂooding, water storage, or conservation? Sea level rise How can coastal communities be protected? Should some be evacuated? Tropical storms How can at-risk communities be protected? Where should development be allowed? Secondary effects on communities How will communities be affected by reduced demand for carbon-based natural resources, reduced air travel, or other aspects of the shift to a low-carbon economy?

3. Both adaptation and mitigation Planning processes and implementation Where should climate change planning ﬁt within the planning process? How can timely and successful implementation of policies be ensured? Public participation and education How can the public be informed and effectively involved? Political barriers How can buy-in be developed for politically difﬁcult moves? Planning education How can students and professionals best learn about this topic and take action? 222 H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250 it may also require new types of planning thought. establishment of new academic research centres may be As previously discussed, global warming is categori- desirable as well. Or perhaps climate change research can cally different from many other types of planning be incorporated into the broader sustainability centres problems, due to the long-lasting, cumulative nature of and curricula that are emerging on many campuses. greenhouse gas emissions, its global scale, and the On the professional side, other needs exist for irreversibility of impacts. New planning strategies and leadership, training and advocacy. Organisations such theoretical stances may be required, in order to bring as the American Planning Association, the Canadian about timely action on this topic. Planners may face new Institute of Planners, the Association of Collegiate ethical dilemmas, for example between conducting Schools of Planning, the Association of European stakeholder-based planning processes and seeking rapid Schools of Planning, and the Global Planning Educators national or international action. Interest Group will need to step to the fore. But this As with any new research area, one obvious need if challenge is not our main focus here. What we most substantial research is to occur is for resources. New and hope to accomplish through this paper is to stimulate substantial grant programmes related to climate change thought on new or expanded lines of research related to science and policy will be necessary, whether through global warming. We believe these are urgently needed, government or private foundation funding sources. The and hope that our peers will agree. H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250 223

Chapter 4. Planning shrinking cities residents. Like many other shrinking cities, it featured visibly declining neighbourhoods with abandoned or Justin B. Hollander, Karina M. Pallagst, Terry underoccupied buildings, empty overgrown lots, high Schwarz, Frank J. Popper crime, and an ageing and heavily minority population (Hollander, 2009: 176–202, especially). In 2002 the 4.1. Introduction city began formulating a creative plan to let such neighbourhoods keep emptying and, in some cases, In recent years a small number of planners, both in nearly (re)naturalise. The plan, still in its early the US and elsewhere, have concerned themselves with implementation stages, would raze unused buildings, how cities shrink as well as how they grow. The interest streets and alleys and create larger home lots, more is overdue: according to an authoritative estimate green space and new parks. The core of the city’s (Oswalt & Rienitz, 2006), one in four cities with at least plan is that it accepts Youngstown’s decline and tries to 100,000 people worldwide was shrinking even before use it as a way to improve remaining buildings, the 2007 American subprime mortgage crisis and the infrastructure and services. The plan aims to depopu- late 2008 international economic slowdown. In the US, late, de-urbanise—and it does so deliberately. for instance, the 2006 Census estimates reveal that 16 of The media and public reaction has been extra- the 20 largest cities during the 1950s have shrunk since, ordinary. Youngstown’s plan, planners, consultants and often by considerable amounts. planning processes have appeared, among other places, Thus Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, Pittsburgh and St on the Wall Street Journal’s front page (Aeppel, 2007), Louis have lost more than half their population, National Public Radio’s ‘Morning Edition’ (Saito, Baltimore and Philadelphia nearly a third, and other 2007a), and the Voice of America (Saito, 2007b), and in cities outside the Northeast and Midwest—Birming- USA Today (El Nasser, 2006). The New York Times ham, Memphis, Norfolk, Richmond and pre-Katrina Magazine’s list of 2006’s 100 most interesting new New Orleans—large proportions. Smaller cities—Ash- ideas included ‘creative shrinkage’ and mentioned by land (KY), Camden (NJ), East St. Louis (IL), Flint (MI), name only Youngstown (Lanks, 2006). Reading (PA) and Wheeling (WV) shrunk comparably. Yet many other cities, particularly in the US Rust Boston, Los Angeles, Miami and New York City would Belt and even more in the former East Germany, have have shrunk too, were it not for their extraordinary begun to formulate responses to shrinkage. A recent intake of immigration. Most large British cities other group of case studies, for instance, focused on Dresden, than London are shrinking (Oswalt, 2005b). A German Buffalo, Cleveland and Detroit (Schwarz & Rugare, government-sponsored project, Shrinking Cities, found 2009) and could just as easily have added Flint, MI, and that globally since mid-century, over 450 cities of over a dozen eastern German cities. Ohio alone has so many 100,000 lost at least one-tenth of their population, shrinking cities—every major one except Columbus— including 59 in the United States (Oswalt & Rienitz, that a perceptive community organiser has written of 2006). ‘the failed state of Ohio’ (Gecan, 2008). Forbes has Most planners lag in grasping the widespread published lists of ‘fastest-dying cities’ and ‘fastest- existence and impressive implications of shrinking dying towns’ (Woolsey, 2008; Zumbrun, 2008). cities. While some planners were involved, the German Informative planning blogs such as FixBuffalo, Shrinking Cities initiative is primarily the work of MilwaukeeTalkie, BurghDiaspora (Pittsburgh) and architects, artists and activists. It sponsored a well- ThinkDetroit profilerate. There is still no question that received international exhibition on the conceptual and Germany has devoted more intellectual and policy developmental possibilities shrinking cities offer, which energy to shrinking cities than, say, the US or France. has toured Western Europe and the US, drawing large Our fundamental finding is that urban shrinkage is a layperson crowds (Schwarz & Rugare, 2009). widespread First World occurrence for which planners A mildly perverse result of planners’ inattention to have little background, experience or recourse. They are urban shrinkage is the striking public reception given to only beginning to comprehend it and find ways to the plan of Youngstown, Ohio (City of Youngstown, respond to it. In particular, they have to overcome their 2005). In 1950 the city, roughly midway between aversion, usually induced by the growth-oriented wider Cleveland and Pittsburgh, was the quintessential culture in which they operate, to the very idea of bustling steel town, with 170,000 people, the 57th shrinkage. They believe it means a pessimistic, largest American city. Then suburbanisation hit, in 1977 unhealthy acceptance of decline. But planners are in the steel mills began to close, and by 2000 it had 82,000 a unique position to reframe decline as an opportunity: a 224 H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250 chance to re-envision cities and to explore non- which magnify shrinkage issues—as in Germany, where traditional approaches to their growth at a time when population decline and economic change reinforce each cities desperately need them. other. In the US large-scale shrinkage of large- and 4.2. The phenomenon of shrinking cities medium-sized cities became clear primarily after World War II. As Beauregard (2003) shows, between 1820 and In 2004, in a relatively prescient move for planners, 1930 only a few American cities lost population, all of the Institute of Urban and Regional Development at the them ports. Their decline occurred either because of the University of California, Berkeley launched a world- growth of railways elsewhere or disasters like fires or wide group of interdisciplinary specialists, the Shrink- droughts. Conventional US planning responses to ing Cities International Research Network (SCIRN), shrinkage over the last half-century have dealt primarily that came to a consensus definition of a shrinking city: a with revitalising distressed city centres. Yet shrinkage in densely populated urban area with a minimum the US springs primarily from relative growth in the population of 10,000 residents that has faced population suburbs, which cuts off city growth and leads to decline. losses in large parts for more than two years and is American urban planning often concentrates on either undergoing economic transformations with some managing urban growth or addressing redevelopment in symptoms of a structural crisis (Wiechman, 2007). a fragmented, non-regional way, that shows a high We will use this definition, both for the US and affinity for growth. Despite the increasing popularity of internationally. the revitalisation approach, which is usually focused Many shrinking cities exist because of the post- narrowly on city centres, there has been little active industrial shift from manufacturing to service indus- discussion of shrinking cities (Pallagst & Wiechmann, tries, with the resulting unemployment and outmigra- 2005; Popper & Popper, 2002). tion (e.g., Pittsburgh, St Louis, Manchester [UK]). Contributing factors might, among many others, be 4.3. German and other discourses on shrinking suburbanisation, war, natural or human-induced dis- cities asters, an ageing or low-fertility rate population, and the dissolution of socialist systems (in Eastern Europe and Post-industrial transformations have occurred in Russia). Such processes have drained essential West Germany since the 1960s and 1970s, leading to resources from many urban areas, leaving the cities the shrinkage of urban cores (Brandstetter, Lang, & with a diminishing fiscal base (Pallagst, 2007). Pfeifer, 2005). The entire steel-making region of the Shrinking cities have a long history. In Late Ruhr, an area roughly comparable to the American Rust Antiquity, the Middle Ages and the Early Modern Belt, shrank. By 1988 West German shrinking cities periods the collapse of the Roman Empire, diseases, had become distinct from growing ones (Haeussser- war, fire and recurrent agricultural crises all left their mann & Siebel, 1988). But after the 1990 reunification mark on European and Asian cities that were never with East Germany, the situation aggravated dramati- completely abandoned and usually resettled. By the late cally. A high rate of unemployment, often over 20% in 19th century European, Asian, US and Latin American many former East German cities, led to a massive industrialisation and the railroads created larger cities movement of population to the former West Germany (and regions) in some places, shrinking ones in others. (Fig. 2). Today the main European sites of shrinking cities are The policy trigger was a year 2000 report of a the post-socialist countries (especially Latvia, Bulgaria, commission on housing vacancies that received huge Romania, Hungary, Slovakia and eastern Germany), the public attention. It showed a change in perspective northern ones (particularly Finland and Sweden), and about the former East Germany, moving towards an Mediterranean ones (Italy and Spain) (Fig. 1). urban development policy that would truly face The European causes of shrinkage are complex and declining development on a long-term basis. It was a partly overlapping. In the post-socialist countries, paradigm shift in urban planning and development in economic change led to migration (e.g., eastern eastern Germany. Population decline affects almost all Germany, much of the rest of Eastern Europe, and eastern cities, but only specific western ones. Both sets Russia). Such migration usually favours the capital or of cities share the development trends of ageing larger cities, causing remote and peripheral cities to lose populations and low birth rates, problems that will population, which is also happening in much of northern increase future shrinkage in western Germany (Fuhrich Europe. Many European countries have low birth rates, & Kaltenbrunner, 2005). H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250 225

Fig. 1. Population change in Europe. 226 H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250

Fig. 2. Population change in Germany.

While there is an extensive planning debate in some globe, including case studies from the US, Mexico, European countries (e.g., Germany, Holland and UK) Brazil, Germany, France, United Kingdom, South about shrinking cities, international comparative Korea, Australia and Japan. The network has estab- research has largely overlooked them. Moreover, lished a website12 and bi-weekly online discussions. although shrinking cities exist all over the world, there The first results of this international research reveal that has not been much of an international discourse on the the location of shrinking cities varies among countries. topic. As the forerunners of the current debate, German Great Britain shows a north–south divide with shrinkage planners are on the verge of developing a ‘German in the north. France’s shrinking cities are located in the School’ approach to shrinking cities. But these centre of the country (Cunningham-Sabot & Fol, 2007), discussions take place in German and the German unlike the east–west divide of German city shrinkage intellectual elite, with few links to other countries’ scholars or policymakers. The SCIRN effort mentioned earlier offers a forum 12 See: http://www-iurd.ced.berkeley.edu/scg/ (accessed 6 October for the exchange of ideas on shrinking cities across the 2009). H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250 227 mentioned earlier. US Rustbelt cities have shrunk more housing units and on revitalisation measures, supple- than other ones. mented by integrated strategic plans at the city level. There are clearly varying patterns of shrinkage at the Shrinking cities planning often means attempts to city level. In the US and a few European cities such as make them greener, more compact and sustainable. Two Glasgow (Cunningham-Sabot & Fol, 2007), the pattern German examples are the internationally acclaimed is usually a hollowing-out of the inner city compared to Building Exhibition ‘Emscher Park’ in western Ger- its suburbs, leading to a so-called ‘doughnut effect’ many and the lesser-known project ‘Fuerst Pueckler (Pallagst & Wiechmann, 2005). However, in the US and Land’ in eastern Germany. In both cases old industrial Europe there are examples where the doughnut effect is sites became landscape parks and cultural attractions. not evident. For example, in Cleveland, the fastest Many comparable projects exist elsewhere (Langner & growing and fastest declining parts of the city are right Endlicher, 2008; Schilling & Logan, 2008; Spirn, next to each other, often intertwined. The Paris region 2005). Cultural regeneration is another approach to has to face shrinkage in the outer suburban rings, which planning shrinking cities. Glasgow’s strategy builds on were the traditional places of industrial development, tourism, recreation, and retail, with a mix of exhibitions, while the core remains stable (Cunningham-Sabot & media-industry investments, and a casino project. The Fol, 2007). Eastern German cities display a pattern of German city of Duisburg created urban entertainment perforation, where shrinkage occurs in different areas centres, and several parks and exhibitions (Glock, throughout the city (Fuhrich & Kaltenbrunner, 2005). 2005). Another clear finding is that large parts of growth- oriented American and European cultures have an 4.4. Emerging research questions: land use aversion to planning for shrinking cities. The dislike goes far deeper than the field of planning. Western Vacant land is the most visible by-product of urban civilisation may indeed have a tropism towards growth shrinkage. When redevelopment of vacant land is not in planning, economics, personal life and many other feasible in the near term or for the foreseeable future, fields. Shrinkage or at least its perception thus becomes holding strategies and temporary uses can promote a threat or a taboo. Planning for shrinking cities comes stability and uphold adjacent property values. Land- to be equated with accepting an unhealthy decline scape beautification offers an established approach (Brandstetter, Lang, & Pfeifer, 2005; Cunningham- here. The city removes derelict structures and installs Sabot & Fol, 2007; Popper & Popper, 2002). Aiming for simple landscaping—often no more than grass and economic growth in order to regain population trees, shrubs or fencing to establish a perimeter edge— growth—an uneasy compromise—is the most typical to provide an appearance of stewardship and control. response of planners and politicians, a strategy that Cleveland’s Vacant land pattern book (Schwarz & rarely leads to success anywhere. Challenging growth as Rugare, 2009) documents a wide variety of land holding the key doctrine of planning, Martinez-Fernandez and strategies for managing urban vacancy. With an Wu (2007) perceptively ask whether shrinkage is a effective ongoing maintenance programme, these problem to be solved or an opportunity not to be missed. techniques create a perception of stability and can Fuhrich and Kaltenbrunner (2005) advocate intellectual increase the market value of vacant properties for and political honesty about German shrinking cities, potential investors. arguing that few are likely to see large-scale growth The Pennsylvania Horticultural Society’s Philadel- anytime soon—a point true of almost all shrinking phia Green programme, implemented in conjunction cities. with the New Kensington Community Development Creating realistic visions for shrinkage is the main Corporation, offers such a landscape initiative for 1,100 planning approach in eastern Germany, sponsored by parcels of vacant land in the New Kensington the federal funding programme Urban Renewal East neighbourhood. Wachter (2005) analysed the impact (‘Stadtumbau Ost’), which began in 2001. Leipzig was of this greening strategy by using more than 50 one of the first cities to undergo the painful process of variables that affect surrounding residential real estate moving from planning for growth towards planning for values. After examining the sales records of thousands shrinkage (Glock, 2005). Dresden showed similarly of homes, she found that cleaning and greening of aversive huge delays in planning reactions, resulting in vacant lots can increase adjacent property values by as miscalculated housing and building projections (Sie- much as 30%. Planting a tree within 50 feet of a house dentop & Wiechmann, 2007). The approach in the can increase its value by about nine percent. Houses up former East Germany focuses on teardowns of vacant to a quarter of a mile from a park increase in value by 228 H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250

10%. Blocks with high concentrations of unmanaged as skateboarding, climbing and biking complexes being vacant lots result in lower residential property values, developed on former industrial sites (Dobberstein & typically a reduction of about 18% (Wachter, 2005). The Hasse, 2006), mobile cultural venues such as social research provides a basis for public-sector implementa- clubs, artificial beaches, and performance areas tion of landscape beautification strategies, because the occurring in Berlin (Oswalt, 2005a) and in Cleveland impacts appear to extend beyond the intangible benefits (Schwarz & Rugare, 2009), and whimsical urban of urban green space and document a quantifiable installations like the Hotel Neustadt in Halle-Neustadt, economic return. Germany. In this remarkable effort, 100 teenagers Prevention of illegal dumping of construction altered an empty residential tower into a hotel and materials, tyres, and other debris is a significant provided a wide range of entertainment and activities. challenge for shrinking cities. Reduced populations When the Hotel Neustadt was open (August–October and lower-density neighbourhoods provide little infor- 2003), it had 2,952 overnight guests. This temporary use mal oversight, the Jane Jacobs ‘eyes on the street’ that changed Halle-Neustadt from a little-known, declining have traditionally helped maintain community stan- industrial city into a major regional tourist destination dards and deter illegal dumping. Many other factors (Rick, 2005). contribute to illegal dumping: vacancy, abandoned Wherever there are cities with excess vacant land, buildings, topography, police presence and inconsistent local entrepreneurs will attempt to extract value from enforcement of anti-dumping laws. A recent study in such vacancy. However, local regulations, liability Pittsburgh and surrounding Allegheny County found ‘a concerns and the objections of nearby landowners disconcerting pattern to dumping that is more socio- prevent them from pursuing innovative temporary uses. economic than geographic’ (Law, 2006). Illegal dumping Research into temporary use strategies in Berlin is more likely in neighbourhoods where higher percen- documents the economic and social benefits of many tages of residents lack high school diplomas and of these kinds of projects and provides guidelines and a where per capita incomes are the lowest (Hrenko, preliminary planning framework for enabling tempor- 2006). Illegal dumpsites appear equally prevalent in ary uses to occur on vacant properties (Overmeyer, other shrinking cities and deserve more research. 2007). Less regulation and more help for grassroots More benign temporary uses for vacant land provide experimentation may provide large new opportunities opportunities for grassroots economic development, for urban regeneration. How municipalities and public local tourism and enhanced quality of life for residents entities can aid temporary use projects; what kinds of of depopulating areas. Temporary use initiatives enable projects have the greatest economic, social and cultural local entrepreneurs to envision new uses for vacant sites impacts; and how planners can deal with issues of that are often former industrial and commercial legality and liability are among the potential research properties and to transform them into temporary market questions. places, venues for extreme sports and cultural events, outdoor art installations, gardens and agricultural sites, 4.5. Emerging research questions: environmental and community gathering places. Temporary uses are mitigation and ecological restoration intended as low-cost and short-term. They provide a holding strategy that activates vacant land in ways that Urban shrinkage often leads to unplanned landscapes do not inhibit and can often facilitate a long-term, or terrains vagues, ‘vast zone[s] of conspicuous neglect profitable use. where residual nature is mixed with industry, waste and Berlin appears the epicentre of the burgeoning infrastructure’ (Girot, 2005). As industries leave and temporary use movement. The basis for public sector populations drop, nature begins to reassert itself. promotion of temporary use strategies is that vacant Resurgent nature may take the form of urban wild- land saps vitality from cities and converts a productive erness, forest, meadow or succession areas. Green space resource (real estate) into a community liability. is usually an amenity in cities, but these ambiguous Emerging research attempts to document the essential unmanaged landscapes contribute to anxiety, reduced characteristics common to effective temporary use property values, and a lack of confidence in a initiatives, the kinds of locations most suited for neighbourhood’s future. Containing and reconfiguring temporary use, and the range of development scenarios emergent nature can challenge shrinking cities, which that can occur (Overmeyer, 2007). often lack resources to construct, maintain and plan for Examples of innovative temporary use projects new public landscapes. The project Industriewald abound, from the youth-oriented extreme sports such Ruhrgebiet, Industrial Forests of the Ruhr, is an H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250 229 innovative experiment in how to convert abandoned urban heat-island effects (Sacramento Tree Foundation, industrial lands into green space with little financial 2005). Shrinking cities can realise these benefits too if investment: it fosters a landscape of natural succession. public policies encourage successional landscape Over time, the land returns in a gradual, controlled way strategies that lead to the restoration of the urban tree to forest. Formally designed elements occur only at canopy on vacant properties. public access points that let residents and tourists Community gardens and market gardens increas- experience the environmentally valuable and aestheti- ingly appear in growing and declining cities of all sizes, cally appealing landscape that has resulted. The project in the US and abroad. The gardens provide fresh is replicating the model on other urban sites in the Ruhr produce to urban populations who often lack access to (Dettmar, 2006). There have been similar proposals for affordable, healthful, locally grown food (Steps to a Philadelphia and St Louis. Healthier US, 2005). In growing cities, urban agricul- When vacancy is widespread, unused land can ture typically occurs at the periphery of the metropo- improve a city’s environmental functions. Vacant land litan area. In shrinking cities, agricultural uses can in strategic locations within a watershed can provide permeate more deeply into urban neighbourhoods, stormwater management, create wildlife habitat and returning surplus and derelict land to productive use. establish concentrated areas of vegetation to improve air Cleveland, for example, now has a large-scale farm (the quality and reduce urban heat-island effects. Large- Blue Pike Farm) operating within city limits. At this scale depopulation allows for the removal of buildings stage, it is difficult to determine whether large-scale and pavement from floodplains. Low-lying, open land urban agriculture will remain an anomaly in urban can retain stormwater before it reaches rivers, streams settings or whether these uses represent a shift from or sewer systems (Spirn, 1990). The reduction of industrialised urban production to agrarian rural impervious surfaces and the use of rain gardens, production (Lauinger, 2006). Research in urban restored wetlands and bioswales can filter and retain agriculture and what is being deemed ‘the new ruralism’ stormwater (US Environmental Protection Agency, coming from Berkeley’s Program for Agriculture at the 2001). The Center for Neighborhood Technology in Metropolitan Edge looks at mechanisms for connecting Chicago is constructing a series of innovative storm- farmers who would like to be closer to urban water projects in Illinois cities and suburbs. The neighbourhoods with ample amounts of good reason- resulting research data will measure the costs of urban ably priced land and seeks to identify ways that stormwater initiatives against their benefits, producing agriculture within the urban core can foster a local, more widespread implementation of such techniques sustainable food system. As with stormwater manage- (Center for Neighborhood Technology, 2007). ment and reforestation, many of these mechanisms Some of the most aggressive models for managing can be more readily applied in shrinking cities than urban stormwater and creating systems of green in areas of high growth, due to lower land costs and lack infrastructure come in response to city growth rather of development pressure. However, older industrial than decline. Open Space Seattle 2100 lays out an cities are likely to face greater challenges with ambitious 100-year plan and a spatial template for an soil conditions and environmental pollutants as they integrated green infrastructure (Rottle & Maryman, attempt to cultivate formerly developed areas for urban 2006). Green urbanism strategies proposed for Seattle agriculture. and other growing cities have direct application to The overarching research question for environment, shrinking cities as well—in fact it may be easier to carry ecology, and agriculture in shrinking cities is how can a out these strategies in shrinking cities with more sustainable and aesthetically appealing urban landscape available vacant land and less development pressure. be created from the leftover spaces and dispersed Urban greening can also put shade trees on vacant vacancy that occurs in these places? Also, will it be land. Where land has been vacant for 10 years or more, possible to create a sustainable and interrelated network trees species often take hold naturally. In other of green spaces and environmental uses around the situations trees are planted intentionally. Large-scale buildings and settlement areas that remain? (Dettmar, urban reforestation is not a predominant strategy for 2006). shrinking American cities in the US, but growing cities, notably Sacramento, have implemented tree-planting 4.6. Emerging research questions: social equity programmes and achieved measurable environmental and economic benefits, such as energy savings, carbon Since the birth of the field of urban studies in the and carbon dioxide sequestration and a reduction in middle of the 20th century, social scientists have studied 230 H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250 the social dimensions of urban decline. Berry (1963) This work may be the most important within the and others were early pioneers in examining the impact shrinking cities research agenda—it helps shed light on of neighbourhood depopulation on people. But the the people in these depopulating communities and current shrinking cities movement embraces depopula- coalesces around the fundamental questions of fairness tion in a way that presents a set of new questions about and equity. These kinds of questions help us to ask: for social equity. shrinking cities, who does planning serve and for what The older literature took for granted that decline was purpose? bad for social equity, with the focus of much of planning and public policy to reverse the decline. Ironically, there 4.7. Emerging research questions: right-sizing is a great deal of research that illustrates how growth can infrastructure be bad for promoting social equity, as well (Logan & Molotch, 1987; Molotch, 1976; Nyden & Wiewel, While the term ‘shrinking cities’ is a semantic 1991). Instead of focusing so much on growth as a improvement on ‘urban decline’, it is politically solution to social problems in cities, a new generation of unpalatable. As the phrase has gained some media researchers are asking about how to promote social attention in the last year, with coverage by more than equity in shrinking cities sans growth. two dozen major newspaper, magazine, and radio Can a city consistently lose population and yet stories, the more corporatist ‘right-sizing’ expression maintain a high quality of life for both rich and poor? has also emerged (‘Let’s consider ‘‘right-sizing’’ of Research in Pittsburgh (PA) suggest the answer is yes. Decatur’, 2007). While businesses have long referred to Can local political decisions about how a city shrinks be the process of adjusting employment levels to better made in a way that gives voice to the most match shrinking sales and income as right-sizing, cities disenfranchised? Research in East St. Louis (IL) and have only recently recognised the parallels in their own four coal mining cities in Korea provides some possible physical plant operations. For a city that has fewer answers. people, are there ways to reduce infrastructure to better Demographically, Pittsburgh consistently ranks as match demand? Put another way, can cities with one of the worst performing US cities in terms of declining populations plan for less infrastructure in the poverty, crime, employment, income, and housing future in the way that growing cities plan for more abandonment (Hollander, 2009). Yet Pittsburgh is infrastructure in their future? widely recognised as a renaissance city, with a high The nuts and bolts of running a city often include level of quality of life coupled with affordability (Davis, maintaining roads, collecting trash and sewerage, 2002; Stikkers & Tarr, 1999; Streitfeld, 2009; US providing water, and providing for public transporta- Environmental Protection Agency, 2006). Pallagst tion. There is great variety in how cities across the globe (2007) studied the Pittsburgh paradox as part of a provide their businesses and residents with such series of case studies of US cities which lost population services, but in the cases where cities own and operate from 2000 to 2004. Her research highlighted how power generation plants and water resources, there is an Pittsburgh had gone through a series of steps, including: opportunity to sell excess capacity to neighbouring (1) preservation of historic buildings; (2) diversification communities. When drinking water consumption drops of its economy; (3) mixed-use/pedestrian-friendly in an area, there is an increased incidence of standing redevelopment; and (4) regionalism; which have water. More standing water represents an increased contributed to the city as a place of high quality of public health risk to those remaining populations life and high population decline. (Koziol, 2006). East St Louis, IL, across the Mississippi River from Infrastructure right-sizing can also involve the St Louis, MO, is a poster child for shrinking cities. closing of roads in depopulating neighbourhoods. Just Having experienced steep population losses for as the installation of new roads is done only after careful decades, the city has major problems with crime, study, review, and computer modelling of traffic education and unemployment (Gordon, 2008; Reardon, patterns, decommissioning streets also deserves such 1998). But Reardon’s (1998) work there has demon- careful review. In shrinking cities, lower residential strated the potential for grassroots, community-oriented densities may demand a smaller road network. planning, even in such conditions. Likewise, Dong- Ironically, the demand for public transit could increase Chun Shin (2007) found that community organisations in shrinking cities as populations tend to be increasingly played an important role in reuse planning in four poor and increasingly without access to private shrinking coal mining cities in the Republic of Korea. transportation. H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250 231

Bo¨hm’s (2006) research into on-demand infrastruc- used to reduce overall density of a city. In this model, ture illustrates the importance of integrating flexibility existing property owners are encouraged to take title to into urban infrastructure. She points to the example of surrounding vacant lots. Cities could facilitate this the Australian Royal Flying Doctor Service (RFDS) process in exchange for the property owners agreeing to which provides medical care to dispersed rural maintain their newly acquired land to established populations through radio service and air travel. For standards. Property owners would also be allowed and shrinking cities with populations lacking private encouraged to use the land in creative, resourceful and transportation, this on-demand infrastructure can be innovative ways, through relaxed zoning codes and land manifested by on-call buses or public subsidy of taxis, use policies (CUP, 2006; Urban Design Center of like New York City’s dial-a-ride programme. Northeast Ohio, 2005). The disaster planning literature has also touched on In contrasting the two models, de-densification the challenges of matching infrastructure requirements would capitalise on a land use transformation currently with lower population levels. For millennia, disasters underway in cities like Detroit, Youngstown and like earthquakes and hurricanes have obliterated urban Cleveland, where very low land values have enabled populations. When faced with rebuilding, city planners city residents to acquire adjacent properties and spread often face the same problem faced by shrinking cities: out over multiple lots, adding garages, gardens, too much infrastructure for too few people (Vale & auxiliary housing units, small home-based businesses, Campanella, 2005). With an estimated population of etc. This appears to be a grassroots transformation of 485,000, New Orleans (LA) was hit by a massive former densely populated urban areas into neighbour- hurricane on 29 August, 2005 and much of the city was hoods of a more suburban density. This strategy is flooded. Ten days later, the city’s population numbered relatively easy to implement because in many cities, it is in the thousands (McCarthy, Peterson, Sastry, & already underway. The urban islands model is a more Pollard, 2006). The RAND Corporation estimated the traditional planning framework that requires extensive city’s population to be 198,000 in September 2006 and land use regulations and public intervention to configure that it will grow to 272,000 by September 2008 the city into a pre-conceived pattern. This model is (McCarthy et al., 2006). While some of the city’s much more difficult to implement, because it is infrastructure was destroyed in the hurricane, local politically difficult to distinguish viable from non- officials are struggling to determine how many roads, viable areas within a city and institute public policies to utilities, schools and government offices to maintain for direct resources and development to the nodes deemed such a smaller city. to be viable. The benefit, however, would be the preservation of development densities and physical 4.8. Emerging research questions: density characteristics traditionally considered to be ‘urban’. In 1990 Detroit’s City Planning Commission There are two key models for reconfiguring produced the Detroit Vacant Land Survey, in which settlement patterns in response to persistent population the most blighted and vacated parts of the city were decline—urban islands versus de-densification. The identified. The recommendation of this report was that urban islands model had an early representation in the the blighted areas should be essentially shut down and work of Oswald Mathias Unger’s ‘urban archipelago’ residents from these dying areas would be relocated to concept for Berlin in 1977. Unger’s concept described more viable parts of the city, echoing Unger’s Urban cities within a city—areas of dense, urban development Archipelago strategy. Buildings in the blighted areas concentrated at key nodes within the existing urban would be demolished, city services discontinued, and footprint, determined to be the most viable remaining the natural landscape would be allowed to take hold areas of depopulating cities. Development would be (Waldheim & Santos-Munne´, 2001). This plan was constrained to these nodes, or urban islands, as a way of never implemented, in large part because depopulated maintaining density and vitality as a city loses areas still retained substantial numbers of people, often population. The area around these islands would be low-income, minority residents, who strenuously targeted for demolition and relocation of remaining objected to the idea of their neighbourhoods being populations, eventually reverting to a natural condition decommissioned. A more politically tenable strategy (Cepl, 2006). addresses the question of municipal resources from the The alternative model of de-densification suggests reverse perspective. Instead of closing off the weakest that, instead of concentrating development in some parts of a city, resources are being concentrated on the areas and vacating other, dispersed vacancy should be strongest parts. All areas of a city receive basic services 232 H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250 but focused investment is being directed towards the shrinking cities itself is still conceptually incoherent. most viable neighbourhoods. Richmond’s Neighbor- Neither planners, politicians or the public seem willing hoods in Bloom programme, Cleveland’s Strategic to spell out what it means, why they might support it, or Investment Initiative, and Detroit’s Next Detroit how planned shrinkage might differ from the unplanned Neighborhood Initiative are examples of this asset- kind. based strategy. The phrase ‘shrinking cities’ implies that these afflicted places are following an inevitable trajectory, 4.9. Conclusion: a need for coherence from something to nothing. But perhaps they are simply moving from one kind of urbanism to another. We Shrinking cities are beginning to receive attention in cannot be certain what the future holds for cities that are a few countries, but large research questions remain experiencing dramatic and persistent decline, but unexplored, both intellectually and practically. What planners can play an instrumental role in exploring are the viable options for a shrinking city—redevelop- alternatives to stabilise transitional cities and neigh- ment, landscape beautification, historic preservation, bourhoods, and point the way to a more sustainable ecological restoration, temporary uses, demolition of future. Shrinkage offers planners the opportunity to neighbourhoods, benign neglect, or perhaps something reimagine cities and their development. else? How can a shrinking city evaluate what works and Probably the key obstacle here is the notion— what does not? How does it balance short-term supported by folk and local-elite wisdom rather than considerations against long-term ones? Economic empirical research—that a healthy city always grows in against environmental ones? How does it deal with population and that only unhealthy ones shrink. If there inequality issues, or infrastructure, public-service or were more, better, and especially cross-national energy ones? How does it do all this against the research on shrinkage, the on-the-ground truth might probable background of overall economic decline? turn out to be more complex and interesting. Some cities Especially when the decline means little or no help from grow a lot, others shrink a lot, but the vast bulk of them state, provincial, central or federal authorities? Is there a fall somewhere between fast growth and fast shrinkage. tipping point beyond which a shrinking city can no They grow slowly, shrink slowly, remain reliably stable, longer recover? Are there policies and strategies a city or combine these patterns over time. Perhaps planners can implement to foster recovery? What differentiates a need to know more about the mechanics of these more recovering city from one that continues in a downward prevalent patterns before they can make reliable spiral? There are no obvious answers, essentially statements about the outliers. In coming decades we because as we write (winter 2009) no one has seriously will see many shrinking cities, cities recovering from asked these obvious questions yet. shrinkage, cities that might disappear altogether, and Shaving the edges off Youngstown, or Detroit or within city combinations of these outcomes. All offer Dresden, will no longer suffice. The concept of compelling research questions. H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250 233

Chapter 5. Planning for cities in the global inherited from colonial days (Diaw, Nnkya, & Watson, South: an African research agenda for 2002). In the field of planning and development, sustainable human settlements therefore, there is an urgent need to formulate new approaches and ideas which are grounded in the realities Susan Parnell, Edgar Pieterse, Vanessa Watson of urban settlement in Africa (and in the global South more generally). Achieving such an ambitious goal 5.1. Introduction cannot be the undertaking of one or two individuals, and it requires a critical mass of engaged action to establish Urban settlements in Africa have historically been a cohort of African urbanists with a clear research neglected by aid and development agencies, and to a agenda. To this end, a new research grouping was large extent by researchers. To some extent this bias is formed at the University of Cape Town (South Africa) explained by the dominance of rural over urban in 2006 to focus on the problems and issues of cities, populations. This pattern is rapidly changing, however. and this grouping has now formally constituted itself as In numerical terms, 38.7% of Africa’s population was the African Centre for Cities13 (ACC). urban in 2007, but this is projected to rise to 61.8% in The imperative of creating an alternative agenda for 2050, implying a trebling of the continent’s urban understanding cities is implicit in the establishment of population (United Nations, 2008). The large rural the ACC. This paper traces some of the countours of our population also disguises the fact that the livelihoods of discussions about what the core project of the ACC most of these households are already dependent on should address. It begins with an analysis of the urban economies, a process which is strongly reinforced challenges of the new urban context and the role that by ongoing circular migration between urban and rural planners could, and we argue should, play in defining areas (Bryceson & Potts, 2005). Future rapid urban what is meant by intergrated and sustainable human growth in Africa also faces the particular problem of settlements. This is followed by a more general weak formal urban economies. In fact Africa is the only discussion of how to reorient planning, for it to serve continent where urbanisation and urban economic the interests of Africa and to contribute to the growth have not been mutually reinforcing, leading international endorsement of sustainability and human to a situation where an impoverished urban populace rights for all, including the urban poor. Finally we set survives largely under conditions of informality. It is out how we envisage we might translate a rights-based estimated that 72% of the current urban population lives understanding of urban sustainability into a collective without acceptable shelter and services (UN-Habitat, research agenda for building alternative planning theory 2003) and the bulk of the urban population in most and practice, in Africa and the global South. countries survives in the ‘informal sector’ (Guha- Khasnobis & Kanbur, 2006). In Africa these factors are 5.2. The new urban context for planning: human compounded by a deep ambivalence towards urbanity settlements in the 21st century and the reluctance by many leaders and governments to recognise the realities of city life in shaping the identity Over the last few decades new economic and social and politics of their subjects (Bass, 2006; Mamdani, forces have had a significant impact on patterns and 1996). processes of human settlement. These changes cannot, But while urban Africa faces more serious problems of course, be attributed only to wider structural forces: than anywhere else, in much of this region planning they have articulated in various ways with local systems are relics of colonial days, and cities suffer histories, cultures and environments, resulting in highly from failed attempts by international aid and develop- differentiated patterns of urban development and ment agencies to address urban issues through devel- change across the globe. In those parts of the world opment models based on assumptions that rarely hold in termed the ‘global South’ these new processes are this part of the world. It is not just a case of bad and giving rise to urban conditions attracting growing inappropriate planning, but also the absence of good concern on the part of governments and development planning that characterises the African city. There is an agencies. This was clearly illustrated at the June 2006 absolute shortage of qualified built environment Vancouver meeting of the World Planners Congress and professionals, and the brain drain further dilutes the the UN-Habitat World Urban Forum, which signified small pool of experienced planners. Planning education in Africa is often poorly developed and outdated, with some planning programmes still based on curricula 13 See http://africancentreforcities.net/ (accessed 15 October 2009). 234 H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250 that two major shifts had taken place in thinking about little in the way of infrastructural support for economic the future of cities. First, there was a recognition that by development or job creation. All this greatly compli- 2008, the majority of the world’s population will live in cates the task for urban planning and management. cities, and in future years 90% of all new global In the absence of planning, in many poorer cities, population growth would be in cities in the ‘developing’ especially in Africa, spatial forms are largely driven by world. The second important insight was that the rate the ad hoc efforts of low-income households to secure and scale of this growth, when coupled with climate land that is affordable and in a reasonable location. This change and resource depletion, posed critical problems process is leading to new urban (ruralopolitan) forms as for the cities of the global South that would require an the countryside itself begins to urbanise, as in vast utterly different scale of intervention by all stakeholders stretches of rural India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, China, to avoid human and ecological calamity. Indonesia, Egypt, Rwanda and many other poorer The combination of global environmental change countries (see Qadeer, 2004). As well, large cities and the demographic transition presents urban planners spread out and incorporate nearby towns, leading to and managers with issues which have never been faced continuous belts of settlement such as the shanty-town before. The next few decades will see an unprecedented corridor from Abidjan to Ibadan, containing 70 million scale of urban growth in the developing world (UNFPA, people (Davis, 2004), and as the poor seek a foothold in 2007). Given that the majority of new urbanites will be the city, primarily on the urban edge. It is these poor, the United Nations Population Fund argues that sprawling urban peripheries, that are almost entirely their future, and by implication the future of humanity, unserviced, and unregulated, that make up the bulk of will depend on the response to this growth. Rapid urban informal settlement. It is in these areas, rarely growth is, moreover, taking place in those parts of the incorporated into the jurisdiction of local city govern- world least able to cope: in terms of the ability of ment, that most urban growth is taking place. These governments to provide urban infrastructure and kinds of areas are impossibly costly to plan and service services; the ability of urban residents to pay for such in the conventional way, given the form of settlement, services; and the ability of urban economies to generate and even if that capacity did exist, few could afford to jobs, income and adequate fiscal resources. pay for such services. In fact the attractiveness of these In African cities, Simone (2000) argues, rapid kinds of locations for poor households is that they can growth and intensified economic competition for avoid the costs associated with formal and regulated resources means that economic and political processes systems of urban land and service delivery. Because of of all kinds become open for negotiation and this informality, however, it is in these areas that informalisation. Networks with the state become environmental issues are particularly critical, both in particularly valuable, both in negotiating preferential terms of the natural hazards to which these settlements access to resources and in avoiding control and are exposed and the environmental damage that they regulation, with the result that, increasingly, ‘...public cause. institutions are seen not as public but the domain of The current world economic downturn will greatly specific interest groups, and indeed they become sites exacerbate all these problems. The scale and depth of for private accumulation and advantage’ (Simone, the urban crisis calls for the exploration of new ways of 2000: 7). The relationship between state and citizens, understanding the dynamics of cities, as well as and between formal and informal actors, thus becomes considering new approaches to the urban interventions under-codified and under-regulated, dependent on of planners. complex processes of alliance building and deal- making, and particularly resistant to reconfiguring 5.3. What does the changing urban context mean through policy instruments and external interventions. for the future of planning? Adding to this, there has been a long history in Africa of neglect of the urban areas—on the part of international We have suggested that the increasingly Southern, aid and development agencies which have tended to poor and urban world we occupy means a greater, not favour rural development over urban, and on the part of lesser, role for planning in the 21st century. But it cannot many African governments which have tended to see be more of the same, nor is it enough to have more from urban growth as negative and something to be the same people. We need fresh voices to generate new discouraged at all costs. As a result, earlier investments ideas, to change the status quo and to define the Asian/ in urban infrastructure have not been sustained or African urban century. Increasing global and local maintained, and in many African cities there is now inequality, resource depletion and the abject conditions H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250 235 that are the daily reality of Africa, Asia and Latin Proposition 1. The available stock of urban and plan- Americas’ poorest urban citizens testify to the bank- ning theory is largely unsuited to help us understand and ruptcy of current planning thinking and on-the-ground navigate the complex lived realities of cities in the responses. Recognising that there is a problem is global South. The urbanisation trends and associated simple—deciding how to move forward to define ecological, economic and social-cultural dynamics alternative paths for planning and training qualified summarised above underscore this assertion. A central planners in the places where there is work to do, is more objective of the ACC is to promote fresh theoretical complex and difficult, especially given the uncertainties perspectives that have Southern origins or application, created by global environmental changes amidst a which we believe will also have relevance for the global economic slowdown. changing dynamics of cities in the global North. In repositioning the intellectual and practical project, In practical terms, what this entails is shifting the to better engage current global human settlement needs, bulk of published material from its current geographical we suggest that there is scope for the reaffirmation of and thematic focus to that part of the world where the the fundamental values that underpin planning, but that majority of urban growth is occurring and to planning some redirection and reassessment on what lies at the issues that focus on the realisation of sustainable urban heart of ‘what planners do’ is essential too. In thinking development, urban rights and human flourishing. about our own normative position we begin with the While the redeployment of Northern scholars to work imperative of making the values of planning contex- on other parts of the world and on a wider spectrum of tually relevant to our location in Africa. A central issues is desirable, a critical part of this reorientation of problem is the failure to secure basic human rights in the planning cannon lies in the creation of a cadre of informal urban contexts. While the structural forces of Southern-based planning intellectuals who reflect on, inequality are overwhelming, they are not impossible to and publish, both case study material and more general combat. There is, however, little political commitment theoretical work. by planners and other urbanists to secure the right to the city for every person (Parnell, 2008). Where there is Proposition 2. Building an alternative planning praxis political commitment to achieve universal rights in the rooted in the South demands a progressive value base city these are often eroded by vested interests of the that is both social and ecologically informed. The powerful with consequences for criminality, inform- concept of universal socio-economic and environmental ality, unemployment, inequality as well as a weak state, rights offers a profound moral base for planning, but its rampant private sector and a disorganised civil society. application in cities of the global South needs inter- Planners do not alter the fundamental relations of rogation. For urban planners we suggest that the concept society, but they may be able to stimulate particular of rights and the ways this can be realised has to be growth paths, mitigate disasters, identify how to developed at several scales, the individual, the house- redistribute resources to ensure greater equity and hold, the neighbourhood and the city (Parnell, 2008). create more attractive places in which to live. To come Some individual rights are well understood, like the to grips with the multifaceted and enduring problems of vote—though the post-ballot corruption of local gov- the sustainability of cities of the South, where the ernment in many Southern cities puts the veracity of this oppressive rather than positive imprint of planning is right into question. Other individual rights, such as the most evident, an alternative approach to planning is rollout of a social safety net that provides a basic required that has a strong progressive value base. To income necessary to survive in cash-based economies, some extent this is the agenda of the emerging literature has only just begun to emerge as a demand outside of on the good city (Friedmann, 2000; Jaglin, 2004) and on the old welfare state, yet without it many individuals in urban resilience (Gleeson, 2005). There are also the city cannot survive. At the household-scale planners important lessons which have emerged from the Latin have been tardy in recognising that the rollout of basic American urban context, such as participatory budget- infrastructure in the city means almost nothing for the ing (Cabannes, 2004). Contributing to such an alter- poor if it is not attached to a mechanism for delivering native intellectual project is the task that the new ACC, affordable services and providing protection from ideally in dialogue with others from and concerned with hazards. Building the institutions and systems to man- the urban global South, will pursue over the next age universally affordable water, power and transport decade. In starting out we have identified a number of presents a major area of conceptual and practical work basic propositions which underlie the conceptualisation for planners. It is at the neighbourhood and city scales of a new research agenda. These are as follows. that the traditional planning apparatus has most cogency 236 H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250 in driving a universal rights-based agenda—yet in cities conceptual thinking about African urbanity. It is thus of the South, zoning, regulation, spatial planning and clear that creating opportunities for collective critical even participation have not been deployed to include or reflection about planning in Africa and the global South, build citizenship or promote ecological integrity. is essential to building an alternative cannon. Since the Instead, degradation, informality, illegality and exclu- 1960s, African capacity for teaching, training, capacity sion abound in the ghettos and urban inequality and building and critical research on urban issues has been vulnerability have thrived in the global South. steadily eroded. The most talented teachers and students seek more satisfying opportunities in Northern institu- Proposition 3. Relevant theory must be built on tions, further weakening the intellectual resource base ‘empirical’ and analytical work about real-life experi- on the African continent. An essential part of fostering a ments in city building, whether in the form of official new planning agenda is thus to strengthen existing government programmes or the mundane ordinary prac- African academic institutions to do more effective tices associated with reproducing livelihoods and ‘life- research and to produce post-graduate urbanists. worlds’14 in the city. The gravitational point of focus, particularly in the field of planning theory, has shifted Proposition 5. None of the previous propositions can too far to the process end during the past two decades, be addressed in a traditional disciplinary fashion; leaving the material basis of urban exclusion obscured engaged theory and theoretically informed reflexive and under-theorised. A practice-led recalibration of policy requires an interdisciplinary platform for knowl- planning theory will demand extensive primary edge generation and innovation. Of course, many urban research across a wide range of cities of the South, problems still demand the specialised knowledge which including the inhospitable, and thus undocumented, emerges from particular disciplines—be it engineering, cities of much of Africa. Field research from ethno- environmental management, or development econom- graphy to surveys and large qualitative and quantitative ics—but there is a growing realisation that the complex- data gathering exercises, as well as thoughtful reflection ities of large and rapidly growing cities also require new and comparative study, lie ahead if we to develop knowledge generated by the coming together of differ- alternative ways of approaching the Southern city. ent disciplines to solve common problems. Single disciplines can essentially bring only one lens to bear on a Proposition 4. Effective urban policies can only problem, whereas complex societal problems require a emerge out of the deliberate articulation of appropriate range of perspectives, with new synergies emerging theory and real-life data about trends, practices and from interactions between the disciplines. The core conflicts in the city. This implies an explicit and for- programmes of the ACC have thus been structured to malised system of storing information and bringing cross both the theory practice boundary, but also to theoretical and applied knowledges into academic pur- consciously breach conventional disciplinary barriers. view. The challenge is enormous. Not only is the data on which to draw an analysis of Southern, especially African, cities abysmal, but there are few research 5.4. Research agenda of the African Centre centres where scholars can critically engage new issues for Cities of urbanity. In the relatively well-resourced hubs of area studies, such as Institute for Development Studies at Concretely, the core research agenda of ACC is Sussex or the Institute of Commonwealth Studies in structured around the problematic of sustainable human London, there is little if any attention given to urban settlements, i.e., what they are and how to bring these issues, while the main international urban studies universal rights into being in complex political, research hubs, even when they make the effort, are economic and institutional settings. Since the United unable to garner the critical mass necessary to advance Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in 1992, the idea of sustainable human settlement development has been on the mainstream 14 This concept is appropriated from Norman Long (2001: 241), who policy agenda (Payne & Majale, 2004). This policy defines it as: ‘‘‘lived-in’’ and largely ‘‘taken-for-granted’’ social world position was consolidated through the Habitat II centring on particular individuals. Such worlds should not be viewed Agenda established in Istanbul in 1996 when, particu- as ‘‘cultural backcloths’’ that frame how individuals act, but instead as larly, the right to housing was entrenched. Flowing from a product of an individual’s own constant self-assembling and re- evaluating of relationships and experiences. Lifeworlds embrace this and earlier political commitments to sustainable actions, interactions and meanings, and are identified with specific development in Rio in 1992, it became incumbent upon sociogeographical spaces and life histories’. national and local governments to ensure that adequate H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250 237 policies and systems were in place to ensure the sustainable development, wealth creation, poverty ‘progressive realisation’ of rights. In theory, this opened alleviation and equity (SA Department of Housing, the door to the consolidation of a reasonably progressive 2004: 11). set of policy ideas, whose implementation urban social movements and non-governmental organisations have Concretely, this means that: since been campaigning for. Over this period the UN- The present and future inhabitants of sustainable Habitat’s flagship, the global human settlement reports, human settlements, located both in urban and rural have become more and more outspoken about the areas, live in a safe and a secure environment and underlying structural factors that undermine the have adequate access to economic opportunities, a realisation of sustainable development generally and mix of safe and secure housing and tenure types, the right to housing and the eradication of poverty more reliable and affordable basic services, educational, specifically (see UN-Habitat, 2001 on globalisation and entertainment and cultural activities and health, human settlements). What the reports have not done is welfare and police services. Land utilization is well to focus on institutional issues to understand why built planned, managed and monitored to ensure the environment professionals, especially planners, have development of compact, mixed land-use, diverse, lagged behind in securing the rights-based vision that life-enhancing environments with maximum possi- has such widespread support.15 bilities for pedestrian movement and transit via safe The work of the ACC draws directly on the South and efficient public transport in cases where African experience of realising (or not) universal rights motorized means of movement is imperative. through integrated settlement planning action. Our Specific attention is paid to ensuring that low- focus on our own context is more than pragmatic. Not income housing is provided in close proximity to only have we argued above that it is important to areas of opportunity. Investment in a house becomes theorise from practice and to engage in empirical work a crucial injection in the second economy, and a based in contexts where conventional planning theory desirable asset that grows in value and acts as a has had little relevance, but we think the South African generator and holder of wealth. Sustainable human planning experience is important in reflecting on the settlements are supportive of the communities which Habitat agenda as well. It is a country where there is reside there, thus contributing towards greater social political will to do better, there is a critical research base cohesion, social crime prevention, moral regenera- and it is a place that is regarded as one of the best tion, support for national heritage, recognition and practice examples by the international policy commu- support of indigenous knowledge systems, and the nity. South Africa thus provides an obvious entry point ongoing extension of land rights (SA Department of into larger debates about how a socio-economic and Housing, 2004). environmental rights agenda can be advanced in cities across the global South. It is striking how similar these arguments are to the policy agenda promoted by UN-Habitat. As with that 5.4.1. The South African experiment in sustainable agenda, it is difficult to argue with any of the sentiments human settlements in BNG. Both policy positions have, however, lost their Two years ago the South African government way at least in part because they substitute policy adopted a fundamentally new approach to the produc- making for planning. As a result they fail to respond to tion of public housing, recast as sustainable human local conditions and they have incomplete implemen- settlements. At the highest level of abstraction the tation agendas that do not take account of the policy framework known as ‘Breaking New Ground’ importance of building the necessary institutional (BNG) says all the ‘right’ things. BNG argues that capacity. As in the case of Habitat’s integrated human sustainable human settlements are: settlement agenda, the BNG strategy was never translated into an implementation plan, i.e., defining well-managed entities in which economic growth the requisite staff, intelligence, financial and manage- and social development are in balance with the ment systems required to shift the former housing carrying capacity of the natural systems on which delivery system onto this radically different footing they depend for their existence and result in (Charlton & Kihato, 2006). Also, while the BNG vision incorporated many sectors and issues, its operationa- 15 The 2009 UN Habitat Report, Planning sustainable cities: Global lisation took place from a single institutional vantage report on human settlements, addresses this issue. point: housing. The absence of any implementation 238 H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250 strategy outside of a reformed housing delivery 5.4.2.1. Regulatory issues. Planners tend to take for programme means that, as with previous integrated granted that the regulatory infrastructure of a city (and urban development aspirations, BNG is well on its its enforcement) will ensure that the plan is defended in waytobecomingasymbolofpost-apartheidpolicy practice. Yet one of the most striking things about failure. Our intention is to use the unfortunate African cities is that colonial regulatory frameworks experience of South Africa’s BNG to animate a bigger have never really been amended to take account of debate on the role of planners in breaking the barriers contemporary urban pressures: to sustainable rights-based settlement implementa- Regulatory frameworks generally comprise legal and tion. In short, we are suggesting that planning cannot semi-legal instruments, and may include policy ignore the construction of the institutional systems on documents, laws/legislation, bylaws, customary which the implementation of its policy proposals will traditions, regulations (planning, building, financial, depend. audit, etc.) standards (services and products) and procedures (procurement, design, public works, 5.4.2. Grounding the research agenda in urban financial, audit, etc.) related to town planning, land management development, building and public health (Payne & Recognising that a rights-based sustainable agenda Majale, 2004: 26). cannot be achieved without significant institutional change, we propose that advancing these reforms These regulatory instruments are vital because they hinges on a clearer understanding of the (absent, structure the interface between public policy objectives dysfunctional and working) systems of urban manage- and the constraints imposed by market forces. In rapidly ment. Motivated by the negative experience of BNG, changing urban contexts, such as Africa, the fact that we consciously explore terrain beyond the traditional regulations are outdated, uncoordinated and unenforced housing, basic needs or livelihood approaches that means that the progressive transformation of space in dominate the current planning literature on the cities of accordance with a plan is all but impossible. Moreover, the South. Thus far, we have identified intersections the poorly understood and managed regulatory interface between: regulatory frameworks; the complexity of often entrenches elite interests and, in the case of South household infrastructure, competing rationalities in Africa, has been one of the drivers of the perpetuation of neighbourhood infrastructures; and the human dimen- the apartheid spatial patterns and unsustainable urban sions of sustainable human settlements as areas where sprawl. For planners, then, understanding the complex- planners working in Africa and the global South need a ities of the regulatory frameworks of the city, which are much better understanding. There are obvious addi- never absent—even when they are ill-formed or tions to this list, including unravelling fiscal procedures inappropriate—is a foundational task. Crucially, this and the impact of technology choice. These are largely demands that planners give attention to the regulatory technocratic domains that planners have overlooked in detail, and legacies, of all sectors—not just domains their efforts to secure participation but, alongside a such as housing that typically occupy planners working reaffirmation of the political contestation over in the global South. resources, they allow one to explore what it might take to plan and manage a sustainable human 5.4.2.2. Household infrastructures. In rapidly grow- settlement. This more complex approach demands ing and very poor cities, the dominant rationale of systematic engagement from different disciplinary and planning is to improve the basic conditions of life. The professional vantage points, to build a holistic under- motivation for a sustainable human settlements agenda standing of the critical interfaces of urban development in Africa thus comes largely through a focus on and the realisation of socio-economic and ecological particular household needs, such as water, electricity, rights. Through the brief description that follows it telecommunications and of course the physical house should be clear why we feel that it is so important that that gets constructed to enfold the various infrastruc- the ACC gathers together scientists, engineers, tures. It is useful to bear in mind that each of these planners and social scientists to work collaboratively infrastructures/sectors is within the governmental on the problem of rethinking the city. In this call for domain of a different national department, often interdisciplinary collaboration to understand the com- managed by detached public institutions and under- plexity necessary to redirect the growth path of urban stood in policy terms through the disciplinary lens of the Africa, we think there is a message for planning more supporting formal knowledge/disciplinary base. The generally. world can look very different from the perspective of H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250 239 water engineer compared to the understanding of a and has concentrated state investment on private telecommunications or energy expert. property rather than on the streets, will have enduring Moreover, each of these sectoral domains is consequences perhaps not imagined by the planners, governed by different, and sometimes competing, who sought only to respond to demands from the poor financial and managerial imperatives that play out for shelter. differently at different levels of government. Most In the sustainable human settlement framework it is importantly, the driver of the sustainable human assumed that any community needs a kit of core settlement strategy (i.e., Department of Housing at infrastructures that are available to the citizenry in an national level or within a municipality in the South equitable fashion. For example, each community must African case) is unlikely to have jurisdiction over the have access to quality educational facilities (ideally 24/ departments or entities who define technical standards, 7 schools that also cater for adult education); adequate regulations and investment trajectories—the invisible (green) spaces for recreation and (urban) agriculture; drivers of settlements patterns—of these other sectors. appropriate economic infrastructures; easy access to a By studying sustainable human settlements through the safe and affordable public transport system; and so on. lens of household-oriented infrastructures, it becomes Consequently, some of the public infrastructures possible to reprioritise the analytical concerns of those deemed essential in the sustainable human settlements involved in production of the built environment. In this approach would include: way, planners can contrast long held professional norms of engineers and architects with those concerned with affordable and safe public transportation and roads; the biotic, aquatic and climatic health of cities, and healthcare facilities; those concerned with the livelihood strategies of the educational facilities, including early childhood poor in the disciplines of economics, sociology and centres; development studies. Thus, in addition to the obvious economic service points and spaces to encourage imperative for an interdisciplinary approach, we argue entrepreneurship, training and SMMEs (small, med- that it is essential for a new urban planning agenda to ium and micro-enterprises); traverse the different geographical scales that impact social development service points, ideally located in through household infrastructure. multi-purpose centres; libraries and public internet access points; and 5.4.2.3. Neighbourhood infrastructures. At its core, parks, leisure and civic spaces that invite and support the sustainable human settlement approach seeks to maximum public use. renew and remake the functioning of human interactions at a community/neighbourhood level as a means of With respect to this aspect of urban management, unlocking household and individual creativity, entre- governmental responsibility is dispersed (between preneurship, connections to the larger city economy and various national departments, across spheres of govern- building positive social capital. Beyond the neighbour- ment and some in the domain of state-owned hood level, a sustainable human settlement approach enterprises, such as the South African National Rail seeks to contribute to the gradual realisation of Corporation). In the absence of a shared perspective (a distributive and environmental justice at the city scale. plan) about what sustainable human settlements may However, its primary locus of intervention is the mean, and how diverse pieces of crucial infrastructures neighbourhood scale, cognisant of how city-wide are best joined up across scales, sector and institution, systems either facilitate or frustrate the emergence of sustainability is rarely achieved. Institutional fragmen- sustainable neighbourhoods (Ravetz, 2000). The rela- tation is driven in part, as we have already argued, by the tionship between planning action at the household, disciplinary cleavages that separate knowledges. This neighbourhood and city scale, is a dynamic ignored by was further reinforced by the impact of neo-liberal BNG. Yet in South Africa, and even more so elsewhere institutional models in the 1980s and 1990s which in Africa, the nature of urban place making in Africa is sought to minimise the role of the state, or at least break largely dictated by planning targeted at household up city governments into ‘ring-fenced’ parcels that improvement. In poor cities, the cumulative impact of could be treated as business entities, ostensibly more investment at a household scale is unusually significant easily amenable to efficient management which because of the paucity of public investment. In the included cost recovery (Geddes, 2005). With the benefit South African case the fact that BNG has largely failed of hindsight in South Africa, it is now clear that to break with the tradition of a single house per stand, fragmenting institutional reforms severely undermine 240 H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250 the potential for planning and implementing policies productively to give practical expression to our interest that can achieve sustainable human settlements. It is to respond directly to the contemporary conditions that vital to keep these institutional dynamics in view in mark urban life in the global South. We demonstrated trying to understand how integrated planning and how this discourse achieved currency in the global service delivery can be achieved with regard to policy system and found increasingly concrete expres- neighbourhood-level public infrastructures. sion through the policy models developed to implement the Habitat agenda in the cities of the global South. 5.4.2.4. Human dimensions of social cohesion and Given that the South African policy discourse on solidarity. Sustainable human settlements are envi- sustainable human settlements is considered to be on the saged to foster greater social cohesion and solidarity. cutting edge of the debates about planning, we explored The multi-dimensional approach to settlement devel- in some detail the slippage between the discourse, as opment advocated by development planners seeks to expressed in BNG, and the failed and inadequate strengthen civic life and citizenship as a means to institutional systems of its implementation, leaving us delivering rights in the city. However, these social or to suggest that the institutional question must be political aspects of planning are wholly underdeveloped brought to the fore in any revised planning theory. in the Habitat agenda or in BNG, in part because poor communities are treated as benign, homogenous and 5.5. Conclusion predisposed to enhance social capital. Despite the fact that there are many more poor people in African cities The purpose of this paper has been to make a case to there is nothing like the detailed policy work on the urgently change the geographical axis along which needs of the poor that informs urban planning in cites of planning theory and practice is developed. Our call is the global north. Crucial questions about the human premised on a recognition of the seismic shifts across dimensions of settlement that need to be addressed the world as urbanisation achieves critical mass in the include, inter alia: what social institutions and forms of global South and the mismatch between current theory social life are most conducive to the formation and and the most pressing urban problems becomes more consolidation of sustainable human settlements? What obvious. The timing of the contemporary processes of is required to engage such social formations? How does urbanisation, coinciding with deepening processes of one deepen community-level citizenship and partici- asymmetrical globalisation, is key because the evidence patory democracy so as to make state institutions and suggests that we are witnessing a deepening of poverty, the private sector more responsive to the poor? inequality and environmental degradation because Pointing to the difficulty of bringing together these (local) states are simply incapable of managing cities four aspects of planning into a rights-based sustainable to ensure greater inclusion and distributive justice. human settlement agenda is not to make a case against the The link between negative development impacts and imperative of pursuing it. The challenges that mark poorly managed urbanisation is particularly acute in African cities demand this agenda. We clearly have no Africa, where the rate of urban growth is the fastest in option but to find the knowledge, institutional and the world. This collision between lack of capacity and governance resources to crack the challenge of viable need presents intertwined and intractable challenges human settlements, especially for the majority of poor that require alternative, locally useful and applicable urban citizens deprived of opportunities, aspiration knowledges to secure basic universal rights for all of and futures; in a phrase, their right to the city. The the world’s urban citizens. Our paper argues that a imperative to plan the city, rather than to rely on ad hoc research agenda for an adequate planning theory individual or neighbourhood-level actions, becomes even and practice for African cities, and for the global more evident when the issue of securing urban environ- South in general, must address four aspects of urban mental, not just social, rights is embraced. The notion that management: regulatory issues; household-scale infra- ecosystem services, such as catchment management or structures; neighbourhood-scale infrastructures; and biodiversity, should form the foundation of city planning mechanisms for actualising greater social cohesion and flies in the face of the current practice in almost every solidarity. We are aware that this is a complex task, African city over the last century, where the resilience of requiring politically committed intellectual action the natural resource base has been taken for granted. by many. For our part, we are using the ACC at the The purpose of this section has been to illustrate University of Cape Town as an opportunity to galvanise how the focus on sustainable human settlements such energy, to draw from our experiences of the rights as a dominant mainstream discourse can be used agenda in seeking integrated and sustainable human H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250 241 settlement in South Africa, but with a view towards will deepen a critical but sustained engagement with the informing the debates of the whole African continent imaginary of sustainable human settlements. and the global South. Our approach to an alternative planning seeks to be Acknowledgements theoretically engaged but pragmatically oriented, so that new knowledge can be produced to aid interven- In Chapter 4, we gratefully acknowledge the tions by the state, citizens and their organisations and suggestions and advice of three anonymous reviewers the private sector, aimed at giving substance to ‘the right and the guest editors, as well as Ann Urosevich for her to the city’; a discursive sign that includes the full, assistance in assembling and editing the bibliography. indivisible gamut of ecological, socio-economic and This research was partially made possible through Justin political rights. The agenda of the ACC demands an Hollander’s Research Associate appointment at Vassar interdisciplinary approach, something which we antici- College during the summer of 2007. Special thanks go to pate will create tension, but which through engagement Leonard Nevarez, Pinar Bitur and Margaret Ronsheim at with shared sites of practice will allow interaction that Vassar. All errors or omissions are our own. 242 H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250

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Biographical details

Hilda Blanco, PhD is a research professor and interim director of the Center for Sustainable Cities at the School of Policy, Planning and Development at the University of Southern California and an emeritus professor of Urban Design and Planning at the University of Washington, Seattle. She holds a Masters in City and Regional Planning and a PhD in City and Regional Planning from the University of California at Berkeley. Blanco has taught and conducted research on sustainable cities; her current work focuses on urban growth management, brownﬁelds redevelopment, theories of decision-making, and infrastructure ﬁnance. She serves on the editorial boards of Journal of Planning Education and Research and Journal of Emergency Management.

Marina Alberti, PhD is professor of Urban and Environmental Planning at the University of Washington. She directs the Interdisciplinary PhD Programme in Urban Design and Planning and the UW Urban Ecology Research Lab, an interdisciplinary team studying urban landscapes as hybrid phenomena emerging from interactions between human and ecological processes. Alberti’s research focuses on developing a simulation model integrating urban development and ecological dynamics to assess the impact of urban growth in Central Puget Sound. She is the principal investigator of a National Science Foundation Biocomplexity project to study emergent properties of urban landscapes in Seattle, and Phoenix. Her most recent book is Advances in urban ecology (Springer, 2008). H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250 249

Robert Olshansky is a professor at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, where he teaches land use and environmental planning. His research focuses on planning before and after natural disasters. He has studied post- disaster recovery processes in Los Angeles; Kobe, Japan; Niigata Prefecture, Japan; Tamil Nadu, India; Banda Aceh, Indonesia; and New Orleans.

Stephanie Chang teaches disaster and risk management planning at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver, Canada. Her research focuses on understanding how disasters affect urban areas, modelling social and economic impacts of potential future disasters, and investigating strategies for reducing risk. She is particularly interested in the role of critical infrastructure systems in disaster loss, recovery and resilience.

Stephen M. Wheeler, PhD, AICP is an assistant professor in the Landscape Architecture Programme at the University of California at Davis, and has previously taught at the University of New Mexico and UC Berkeley. He is the author of Planning for sustainability: Towards livable, equitable, and ecological communities (2008, 2nd ed.) and co-editor of The sustainable urban development reader (with Timothy Beatley) (2004), both published by Routledge. His areas of interest include sustainable development, planning for climate change, urban design, and land use and urban morphology. His awards include the 2009 William R. and June Dale Prize for excellence in Urban and Regional Planning.

John Randolph, PhD is a professor and chair of Urban Affairs and Planning at Virginia Tech, where he has been on the faculty since 1979. Dr Randolph was the Director of the Virginia Center for Coal and Energy Research from 1988 to 1995. He has authored more than 50 articles and reports and two textbooks, Environmental land use planning and management (2004) and Energy for sustainability: Technology, planning, policy (with Gilbert Masters, 2008), both published by Island Press. He received the statewide Virginia Energy Award in 1992 for his energy research, and the national 2006 William R. and June Dale Prize for Excellence in Urban and Regional Planning.

James B. London is an associate dean for Research and Graduate Studies in the College of Architecture, Art and Humanities at Clemson University. He is also a professor of City and Regional Planning. He received a PhD in Applied Economics in 1979 from Clemson and has taught at both the College of Charleston and Clemson. Dr London specialises in natural resource and environmental planning and policy. He has worked previously on coastal management, water resource policy, solid waste management, and transportation policy. Much of his current work relates to sustainable development and climate change.

Justin Hollander is an assistant professor in the Department of Urban and Environmental Policy and Planning at Tufts University. His research interests are in the areas of brownﬁelds reuse, shrinking cities, and land use planning. His book, Polluted, and dangerous: America’s worst abandoned properties and what can be done about them, was published in January 2009 by the University of Vermont Press. He received a PhD in planning and public policy from Rutgers University.

Karina Pallagst is the director of the Shrinking Cities Program at UC Berkeley’s Center for Global Metropolitan Studies. She previously worked as a senior researcher at the Institute of Ecological and Regional Development Dresden/Germany and Program Coordinator at UC Berkeley’s Institute of Urban and Regional Development. Dr Pallagst’s book on growth management in the US between theory and practice was published in 2007. She is presently ﬁnishing a co-edited volume on shrinking cities in a global perspective. She received her PhD from the University of Kaiserslautern/Germany, and holds a post-doctoral degree from Dresden Technical University/Germany.

Terry Schwarz is the senior planner at Kent State University’s Cleveland Urban Design Collaborative. Her work includes neighbourhood and campus planning, commercial and residential design guidelines, stormwater management and green infrastructure strategies. She launched the CUDC’s Shrinking Cities Institute in 2005, in an effort to understand and address the implications of population decline and large-scale urban vacancy in Northeast Ohio. She teaches in the graduate design curriculum for the KSU College of Architecture and Environmental Design. She has a Bachelor’s degree in English from the Illinois Institute of Technology, and a Master’s degree in City and Regional Planning from Cornell University. 250 H. Blanco, M. Alberti / Progress in Planning 72 (2009) 195–250

Frank J. Popper has since 1983 taught land use planning at the Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University, where he also participates in the American Studies, Geography and Political Science Departments. Since 2001 he has taught regularly at the Environmental Studies Program at the Princeton Environmental Institute at Princeton University, where he also participates in the Civil and Environmental Engineering Department. A former two-term member of the board of the American Planning Association, he now chairs the board of the Great Plains Restoration Council and serves on that of the National Center for Frontier Communities.

Sue Parnell is a professor of urban geography in the Department of Environmental and Geographical Sciences, and is the Director of the ‘CityLab’ at the University of Cape Town (UCT) African Centre for Cities. Prior to her appointment at UCT she taught in the Wits University Geography Department (Johannesburg) and the School of Oriental African Studies (London).

Edgar Pieterse is a professor and holder of the South African Research Chair in Urban Policy and the Director of the African Centre for Cities at the University of Cape Town. His research is focused on renovating theoretical approaches to African urbanism, public cultures in African cities and new social movements in the global south working at the nexus of livelihoods and political citizenship. His most recent book is: City futures: Confronting the crisis of urban development (Zed Books, 2008).

Vanessa Watson is a professor in the City and Regional Planning masters programme in the School of Architecture, Planning and Geomatics at the University of Cape Town. Her research focuses on planning theory and practice, systems of spatial planning, local governmental institutions, and urbanisation processes. She has authored, co-authored and co-edited six books and numerous articles. She is a founding and executive member of the African Centre for Cities. She represents the Association of African Planning Schools on the Global Planning Education Association Network (GPEAN) and is a chair of this committee.