Research Update: Outlook On 30 Brazilian Corporate And Infrastructure Entities Revised To Positive On Similar Action On Sovereign
December 12, 2019
Overview PRIMARY CREDIT ANALYSTS
- On Dec. 11, 2019, S&P Global Ratings revised the outlook on its 'BB-' global scale sovereign Flavia M Bedran rating on Brazil to positive from stable, and affirmed both the global scale and 'brAAA' national Sao Paulo scale ratings. + 55 11 3039 9758 flavia.bedran - As a result, on Dec. 12, 2019, S&P Global Ratings revised the global scale outlook to positive @spglobal.com from stable on all corporate and infrastructure entities with ratings that are directly or Felipe Speranzini indirectly limited by the sovereign. Sao Paulo - The positive outlooks on these entities reflect the chance for an upgrade following a similar (55) 11-3039-9751 action on the sovereign. felipe.speranzini @spglobal.com
Marcelo Schwarz, CFA Sao Paulo Rationale (55) 11-3039-9782 marcelo.schwarz On Dec. 11, 2019, we revised Brazil's sovereign outlook to positive, signaling the potential of @spglobal.com one-notch rating uplift in the next two years if further progress--prioritization, passage, or Julyana Yokota execution--on the Brazilian government's broad fiscal and growth agenda allows the country to Sao Paulo more rapidly reduce fiscal deficits and stabilize debt dynamics. + 55 11 3039 9731 julyana.yokota We could also upgrade Brazil if real GDP growth dynamics begin comparing more favorably with @spglobal.com peers with a similar level of economic development. Additionally, we could raise the ratings if, Diego H Ocampo contrary to our expectations, Brazil's sound external profile strengthens further, despite global Buenos Aires volatility, particularly if it maintains a net narrow external creditor position. (54) 114-891-2116 diego.ocampo The global scale 'BB-' rating on Brazil limits a large number of corporate and infrastructure ratings @spglobal.com due to our belief that in an event of sovereign default, many of these entities would experience SECONDARY CONTACT credit stresses too. Vinicius Ferreira Sao Paulo + 55 11 3039 9763 vinicius.ferreira @spglobal.com
See complete contact list at end of article. www.spglobal.com/ratingsdirect December 12, 2019 1 Research Update: Outlook On 30 Brazilian Corporate And Infrastructure Entities Revised To Positive On Similar Action On Sovereign
Issuers capped at the sovereign level (BB-)
The sovereign rating limit adopts many forms for our rated portfolio of Brazilian corporations. We cap the vast majority of Brazilian corporations at the sovereign level (BB-). These issuers have intrinsic credit qualities (or stand-alone credit profiles [SACPs]) stronger than 'bb-', but the final ratings on them are, by virtue of the sovereign limit, 'BB-'. Therefore, the ratings' upside is aligned with that of the sovereign, leading us to revise their respective outlooks to positive. This group includes all regulated utilities that we cap by the sovereign given their inherent exposure to the regulatory framework in the country. Also in this group are companies that don't pass our liquidity stress test in a hypothetical sovereign distress scenario.
- Camil Alimentos S.A.
- CESP-Companhia Energetica de Sao Paulo
- Cosan S.A.
- Cyrela Brazil Realty S.A. Empreendimentos e Participacoes
- Rede D'Or Sao Luiz S.A.
- MRS Logistica S.A.
- EDP Espirito Santo Distribuicao de Energia S.A.
- Neoenergia S.A.
- Companhia de Eletricidade do Estado da Bahia
- Companhia Energetica de Pernambuco (CELPE)
- Companhia Energetica do Rio Grande do Norte
- Energisa S.A.
- Energisa Sergipe-Distribuidora de Energia S.A.
- Energisa Paraiba-Distribuidora de Energia S.A.
- Transmissora Alianca de Energia Eletrica S.A.
Issuers with ratings limited to one-to-four notches above the sovereign
These entities have a number of credit strengths that, in our opinion, would contribute to some insulation from a potential sovereign stress. In this group, we have a wide array of entities, from companies with assets and clients mostly in Brazil but that have very low leverage (generally the weaker SACPs in this group), to companies with a global footprint or that are export-oriented with demand that doesn't correlate to Brazil's economy (the strongest SACPs in this group).
Some ratings in this group--generally the highest--are limited to one notch above Brazil's transfer and convertibility assessment (T&C, currently at 'bb+'), which is our assessment of the likelihood of the country imposing currency controls. Because the T&C assessment of a sovereign correlates with the sovereign rating, we assume that in a scenario of a sovereign upgrade, we would also upgrade the T&C assessment accordingly.
Because all of these entities have stronger SACPs than the final ratings, in the case of a sovereign upgrade, we will automatically upgrade these ratings.
www.spglobal.com/ratingsdirect December 12, 2019 2 Research Update: Outlook On 30 Brazilian Corporate And Infrastructure Entities Revised To Positive On Similar Action On Sovereign
- Ache Laboratorios Farmaceuticos S.A.
- Ambev S.A.
- Globo Comunicacao e Participacoes S.A.
- Localiza Rent a Car S.A.
- Ultrapar Participacoes S.A.
- Raizen Combustiveis S.A. and Raizen Energia S.A., jointly referred to as Raizen S.A.
- Votorantim S.A.
The outlook change on Votorantim S.A. triggers the same action on Nexa Resources S.A. and its core subsidiary Nexa Resources Peru S.A.A. because of our view of group support in a stress scenario.
Government-owned entities
We revised the outlook to positive on two government-owned entities we rate in Brazil. We would upgrade both entities following a similar action on the sovereign:
- Eletrobras-Centrais Eletricas Brasileiras S.A.
- Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras
National scale ratings
Finally, we have revised the outlook on the national scale rating on Ultrafertil S.A., reflecting the likely upgrade of the group if we upgrade Brazil.
Related Criteria
- General Criteria: Group Rating Methodology, July 1, 2019
- Criteria | Corporates | General: Corporate Methodology: Ratios And Adjustments, April 1, 2019
- General Criteria: Methodology For National And Regional Scale Credit Ratings, June 25, 2018
- General Criteria: Methodology For Linking Long-Term And Short-Term Ratings, April 7, 2017
- General Criteria: Rating Government-Related Entities: Methodology And Assumptions, March 25, 2015
- Criteria | Corporates | General: Methodology And Assumptions: Liquidity Descriptors For Global Corporate Issuers, Dec. 16, 2014
- Criteria | Corporates | General: Corporate Methodology, Nov. 19, 2013
- General Criteria: Methodology: Industry Risk, Nov. 19, 2013
- General Criteria: Ratings Above The Sovereign--Corporate And Government Ratings: Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 19, 2013
- General Criteria: Country Risk Assessment Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 19, 2013
- General Criteria: Methodology: Management And Governance Credit Factors For Corporate
www.spglobal.com/ratingsdirect December 12, 2019 3 Research Update: Outlook On 30 Brazilian Corporate And Infrastructure Entities Revised To Positive On Similar Action On Sovereign
Entities, Nov. 13, 2012
- General Criteria: Use Of CreditWatch And Outlooks, Sept. 14, 2009
Related Research
- Brazil Outlook Revised To Positive On Prospects For Sustained Fiscal Improvements; 'BB-/B' Ratings Affirmed, Dec. 11, 2019
Ratings List
Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Action
To From
Issuer Credit Rating
Ache Laboratorios Farmaceuticos S.A.
Global Scale BB+/Positive/-- BB+/Stable/--
Ambev S.A.
Global Scale BBB/Positive/-- BBB/Stable/--
Camil Alimentos S.A.
Global Scale BB-/Positive/-- BB-/Stable/--
CESP – Companhia Energetica de Sao Paulo
Global Scale BB-/Positive/-- BB-/Stable/--
Cosan Ltd.
Global Scale BB-/Positive/-- BB-/Stable/--
Cosan Lubrificantes e Especialidades S.A.
Global Scale BB-/Positive/-- BB-/Stable/--
Cosan S.A.
Global Scale BB-/Positive/-- BB-/Stable/--
Cyrela Brazil Realty S.A. Empreendimentos e Participacoes
Global Scale BB-/Positive/-- BB-/Stable/--
EDP Espirito Santo Distribuicao de Energia S.A.
Global Scale BB-/Positive/-- BB-/Stable/--
Eletrobras – Centrais Eletricas Brasileiras S.A.
Global Scale BB-/Positive/-- BB-/Stable/--
Energisa S.A.
Global Scale BB-/Positive/-- BB-/Stable/--
Energisa Paraiba – Distribuicao de Energia S.A.
Global Scale BB-/Positive/-- BB-/Stable/--
Energisa Sergipe – Distribuicao de Energia S.A.
Global Scale BB-/Positive/-- BB-/Stable/--
www.spglobal.com/ratingsdirect December 12, 2019 4 Research Update: Outlook On 30 Brazilian Corporate And Infrastructure Entities Revised To Positive On Similar Action On Sovereign
Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Action (cont.)
To From
Globo Comunicacao e Participacoes S.A.
Global Scale BB+/Positive/-- BB+/Stable/--
Localiza Rent a Car S.A.
Global Scale BB+/Positive/-- BB+/Stable/--
MRS Logistica S.A.
Global Scale BB-/Positive/-- BB-/Stable/--
Neoenergia S.A.
Global Scale BB-/Positive/-- BB-/Stable/--
Companhia de Eletricidade do Estado da Bahia
Global Scale BB-/Positive/-- BB-/Stable/--
Companhia Energetica de Pernambuco (CELPE)
Global Scale BB-/Positive/-- BB-/Stable/--
Companhia Energetica do Rio Grande do Norte
Global Scale BB-/Positive/-- BB-/Stable/--
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. – Petrobras
Global Scale BB-/Positive/-- BB-/Stable/--
Raizen Energia S.A.
Global Scale BBB-/Positive/-- BBB-/Stable/--
Raizen Combustiveis S.A.
Global Scale BBB-/Positive/-- BBB-/Stable/--
Rede D'Or Sao Luiz S.A.
Global Scale BB-/Positive/-- BB-/Stable/--
Transmissora Alianca de Energia Eletrica S.A.
Global Scale BB-/Positive/-- BB-/Stable/--
Ultrafertil S.A.
National Scale brAA/Positive/-- brAA/Stable/--
Ultrapar Participacoes S.A.
Global Scale BB+/Positive/-- BB+/Stable/--
Nexa Resources S.A.
Global Scale BB+/Positive/B BB+/Stable/B
Nexa Resources Peru S.A.A.
Global Scale BB+/Positive/B BB+/Stable/--
Votorantim Cimentos S.A.
Global Scale BBB-/Positive/-- BBB-/Stable/--
Votorantim S.A.
Global Scale BBB-/Positive/-- BBB-/Stable/--
www.spglobal.com/ratingsdirect December 12, 2019 5 Research Update: Outlook On 30 Brazilian Corporate And Infrastructure Entities Revised To Positive On Similar Action On Sovereign
Certain terms used in this report, particularly certain adjectives used to express our view on rating relevant factors, have specific meanings ascribed to them in our criteria, and should therefore be read in conjunction with such criteria. Please see Ratings Criteria at www.standardandpoors.com for further information. Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect at www.capitaliq.com. All ratings affected by this rating action can be found on S&P Global Ratings' public website at www.standardandpoors.com. Use the Ratings search box located in the left column.
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Contact List
PRIMARY CREDIT ANALYST PRIMARY CREDIT ANALYST PRIMARY CREDIT ANALYST
Flavia M Bedran Felipe Speranzini Marcelo Schwarz, CFA Sao Paulo Sao Paulo Sao Paulo + 55 11 3039 9758 (55) 11-3039-9751 (55) 11-3039-9782 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
PRIMARY CREDIT ANALYST PRIMARY CREDIT ANALYST SECONDARY CONTACT
Julyana Yokota Diego H Ocampo Vinicius Ferreira Sao Paulo Buenos Aires Sao Paulo + 55 11 3039 9731 (54) 114-891-2116 + 55 11 3039 9763 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
SECONDARY CONTACT
Wendell Sacramoni, CFA Sao Paulo (55) 11-3039-4855 [email protected]
www.spglobal.com/ratingsdirect December 12, 2019 7 Research Update: Outlook On 30 Brazilian Corporate And Infrastructure Entities Revised To Positive On Similar Action On Sovereign
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