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A Close Look to the Future of Turkish-Iranian Relations

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A Close Look to the Future of Turkish-Iranian Relations Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 1994-09 A close look to the future of Turkish-Iranian relations Aydin, Ufuk Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/42962 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL Monterey, California SJSK p $& ^T if F7 '?;v T' ';T r~ Him* tci i« ^jjf. Ji Ü |.;; DEC 0 9 1994;' ' F:r THESIS A CLOSE LOOK TO THE FUTURE OF TURKISH-IRANIAN RELATIONS by Ufuk AYDIN September 1994 Thesis Advisor: Ralph K. Magnus Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. 19941201 074 REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED September 1994 Master's Thesis, Final TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS A CLOSE LOOK TO THE FUTURE OF TURKISH-IRANIAN RELATIONS AUTHOR(S) AYDIN,UFUK PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Naval Postgraduate School REPORT NUMBER Monterey CA 93943-5000 SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING Naval Postgraduate School AGENCY REPORT NUMBER Monterey ca 93943-5000 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government, or any other government and governmental offices. 12a. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT Approved for public release; 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE distribution unlimited A 13 ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words)The purpose of this thesis is to examine relations of Turkey and Iran under the perspective of their cultural biases and security prerequisities. It is important to evaluate both countries and their foreign policies, which face many challenges after the post cold war era, in understanding possible futures of both countries. This thesis provides historical background of their relations and major current issues between the two countries. An analysis of factors shaping the decision-making process in Turkey and Iran gives the reader tools to speculate about their future relations. Several possible scenerios of conflict and then- probable outcomes examined. General results of this thesis reveal the necessity of cooperation between the two countries Mutual understanding and cooperation will also have an impact on the stability and development of the region. The Economic Cooperation Organization may provide a mechanism for the two countries to improve their relations and increase regional stability. 14 SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF PAGES history of early Iran, history of Shiism, history of Iran, The Ottomans, the Kurds, Islamic fundementalism, 394 Developments in Central Asia, the conflict in the Caucasus, Iran, Turkey 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT UL Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. A Close Look to the Future of Turkish-Iranian Relations by Ufuk AYDIN First Lieutenant, Turkish Air Force B.B.A., Turkish Air Force Academy, 1988 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN INTERNATIONAL RESOURCE PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL September 1994 Author: Approved by: Ralph H. Magnus, Thesis Advisor Davidjl. Whipple. Chairman Department of Administrative Science ABSTRACT The purpose of this thesis is to examine relations of Turkey and Iran under the perspective of their cultural biases and security prerequisites. It is important to evaluate both countries and their foreign policies, which face many challenges after the post cold war era, in understanding possible futures of both countries. This thesis provides historical background of their relations and major current issues between the two countries. An analysis of factors shaping the decision-making process in Turkey and Iran gives the reader tools to speculate about their future relations. Several possible scenarios of conflict are developed and their probable outcomes examined. General results of this thesis reveal the necessity of cooperation between the two countries. Mutual understanding and cooperation will also have an impact on the stability and development of the region. The Economic Cooperation Organization may provide a mechanism for the two countries to improve their relations and increase regional stability. ! '-'.ccesion For j NT!3 CRA&! m | 'OTIC TAB a • '^■•■■'■■:ei,,.ced a '-_| M in TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION ■1- II. HISTORICAL BACKGROUND .5. A. EARLYfflSTORY .5. B. THE HISTORY OF SHHSM -12- C. THE OTTOMAN'S ERA -21- D. IN THE MODERN HISTORY: FROM ATATURK TO KHOMEINI.. -60- E. THE POST-REVOLUTION ERA -84- III. CURRENT ISSUES _105- A. KURDISH PROBLEM _106- 1. Historical Setting -106- 2. Kurdish Movements in Iran -109- 3. Kurdish Movements in Turkey -121- 4. The impact of the Kurdish Problem on the relations of Turkey and Iran -143- B. THE SITUATION IN NORTHERN IRAQ -145- C. THEEXPORTOFREGME -154- 1. The Religious Movements in Turkey -154- 2. The Export Of Iranian Revolution -163- 3. The Effect of the Export of the Regime on the Bilateral Relations of Turkey and Iran -174- D. THE RIVALRY IN CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS -180- 1. The Current Situation -180- 2. The Turkish Efforts of Influence -186- IV 3. The Iranian Efforts of Influence -191- 4. The Impact of the Rivalry on the Relations of the Two Countries -196- E. THE CONFLICT IN THE CAUCASUS -199- F. THE EXTENSIVE MILITARY BUILD-UP OF IRAN -213- IV. THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS OF THE TWO COUNTRIES -224- A. POLITICAL ANALYSIS OF THE TWO COUNTRIES -224- 1. Ideologies of the Two Countries -224- a. Iran _224- b. Turkey -233- 2. Political Structure of the Two Countries -245- a. Iran -245- b. Turkey -256- 3. Leadership -272- a. Iran -272- b. Turkey -277- B. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF THE TWO COUNTRIES -281- 1. Economy -Overview -281- a. Iran -281- b. Turkey -286- 2. Industry and Technology -289- a. Iran -289- b. Turkey -293- 3. Natural Resources -296- a Iran -296- b. Turkey -299- C. SOCIAL ANALYSIS OF THE TWO COUNTRIES -301- v 1. Demographic Structure -301- a- Iran -301- b. Turkey -304- 2. Religious Groups -307- a- Iran _307- a. Turkey -311- 3. Ethnic Groups -314- a. Iran -314- b. Turkey -318- D. ANALYSIS OF THE NATIONAL SECURITY POLICIES OF THE TWO COUNTRIES _32i- 1. Foreign Relations -321- a. Iran -321- b. Turkey _330- 2. Military Capabilities of the Two Countries -334- a. Iran .334. b. Turkey -341- V. SPECATULATIONS AND CONCLUSION .349. LIST OF REFERENCES _367_ INITIAL DISTRIBUTION LIST _385_ VI ACKNOWLEDGMENTS In appreciation for their time, effort, and patience, many thanks go to my instructors, especially my thesis advisor Professor Ralph H. Magnus and co-advisor Professor Frank Teti, and the staff and faculty of the NPS. I would like to offer special thanks to my family for their patience, support, encouragement and sacrifice. I would like express my sincere gratitude to my country and the Turkish Air Force for giving me opportunity to make this study. vu I. INTRODUCTION This study is concentrated on the question relating the future relations of two great regional actors of the area we prefer to call South West Asia. These countries, Turkey and Iran, have their own respective national identities and great histories. It is important to evaluate both countries and their foreign policies which face many challenges after the post cold war era to understand possible future relationships between both countries. It is hoped to find some clues to determine the future of their relations. This thesis will be helpful in finding mutual agreement between two countries which is essential for peace in this very sensitive region. This thesis will focus on the relations of Turkey and Iran and their view point on different issues that affect their relations. The first priority will be given to their security prerequisites and their current foreign policies. Domestic problems and the stability of their regimes will be another focal point used to estimate the future of their relations. This thesis will follow the systematic approach of using different tools to find a solution to the research question outlined in the contents table. The longititudional approach will be used to understand the development of relations between two countries. The method of agreement will be used to find common points on their relations. To understand what may cause a problem or cooperation between two countries, this thesis will examine the current issues of the two countries. The two countries will be compared by making the analysis of political, economical, social and security factors to understand their decision-making process. Both countries have long histories, their first interactions were recorded as early as third century B.C. However, there are some turning points in the relations of both countries. The thesis will look for the periods in which they established good relations and cooperated as well as periods which caused struggle between these countries. The historical relations of the two countries will be studied beginning from their early history. The history of Shiism also requires attention. It is crucial to know that although nations behave according to the flow of events in their era, their history shows an interpretive system or paradigm to analyze and respond to these events.
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