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Hydrologic Vulnerability Assessment Hurricane Marco Tropical Storm Laura

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Hydrologic Vulnerability Assessment Hurricane Marco Tropical Storm Laura Hydrologic Vulnerability Assessment Hurricane Marco Tropical Storm Laura Issued: 1:39 PM ET Sunday, August 23, 2020 Weather Ready Nation NWSSERFC @NWSSERFC Key Points Southeast River Forecast Center Issued August 23, 2020 1:39 PM ET • Hurricane Marco and Tropical Storm Laura will affect the Gulf of Mexico and areas along the coast this week. • Current forecasts keep the path of these storms and the potential for the heaviest rainfall out of the SERFC area. • With continued uncertainty in the forecast path of these storms, the SERFC will be watching closely for changes to the path or rainfall forecast. NWSSERFC Decision Support Briefing weather.gov/serfc Hurricane Marco Southeast River Forecast Center Hurricane Marco likely to have minimal impacts in SERFC area Issued August 23, 2020 1:39 PM ET The latest forecast for Hurricane Marco has it making landfall in Louisiana late Monday. The current forecast path would mean minimal impacts for rivers in the SERFC forecast area. A shift to the east in the forecast would mean the threat would increase. We will continue to monitor the forecast and update if necessary NWSSERFC Decision Support Briefing weather.gov/serfc Tropical Storm Laura Southeast River Forecast Center Tropical Storm Laura will affect the Southeast early this week Issued August 23, 2020 1:39 PM ET The latest forecast for Tropical Storm Laura has the path moving into the Gulf of Mexico where it is expected to strengthen into a Hurricane and make landfall near the border of Texas and Louisiana. This was the biggest concern on Friday when it looked as though this storm might make landfall in the Florida panhandle. The current forecast means less impacts in both south Florida and the panhandle. NWSSERFC Decision Support Briefing weather.gov/serfc 30-day departure from normal precipitation Southeast River Forecast Center Issued August 23, 2020 1:39 PM ET There are areas in the Carolinas that have been above normal the last 30 days. Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and Florida have been more below normal with a few pockets of above normal rainfall. The SERFC will be watching this week to see if any areas across the southeast U.S. receive persistent heavy rainfall. NWSSERFC Decision Support Briefing weather.gov/serfc Current Southeast Streamflows Southeast River Forecast Center Issued August 23, 2020 1:39 PM ET 7-Day Streamflows Streamflows are running near normal to above normal in some parts of the southeast US. This time of year, streamflow are approaching their typically lowest levels based on climatology. NWSSERFC Decision Support Briefing weather.gov/serfc Potential Rainfall This Week Southeast River Forecast Center 5-day Rainfall Forecast Issued August 23, 2020 1:39 PM ET The track of Marco and Laura keep most of the heavy rain out of the SERFC area. The few spots that are higher in Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida panhandle occur over numerous days and currently aren’t expected to flood. However, changes to the track forecast could change this rainfall forecast. Stay tuned. NWSSERFC Decision Support Briefing weather.gov/serfc Southeast Flooding Potential Southeast River Forecast Center Issued August 23, 2020 1:39 PM ET MMEFS is showing a handful of points along the gulf coast with the potential to go to action stage. Some of the points in the Carolinas shown going to flood stage are already in flood stage or are very close. There is a model run that indicates that the storm could take a path through Georgia and the Carolinas…although this is not expected. The SERFC will be watching closely to see if there are any changes to the current forecast thinking. To take a closer look, here is the link to more detailed information: https://www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs NWSSERFC Decision Support Briefing weather.gov/serfc SERFC Operational Status Southeast River Forecast Center Normal Operating Hours Issued August 23, 2020 1:39 PM ET • SERFC is on normal operating hours. Normal hours are 6 am to 10 pm EDT. Please contact us if you have any questions or concerns. • If the current forecast holds, we will only issue a briefing to Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida panhandle tomorrow. Let us know if you have any other questions. Please send all operational correspondence to [email protected] or call the office directly. NWSSERFC Decision Support Briefing weather.gov/serfc Key Points Southeast River Forecast Center Decision Support Briefing. Issued August 23, 2020 1:39 PM ET Latest Radar SERFC Quick Brief Latest Forecast MMEFS – Ensemble River Forecasts Rainfall NWSSERFC Decision Support Briefing weather.gov/serfc Key Points Southeast River Forecast Center Decision Support Briefing. Issued August 23, 2020 1:39 PM ET • These slides are intended for your use. Please feel free to share these with others. If you have any questions please email [email protected] or contact your local NWS Weather Forecast Office. • Remember: SERFC briefings cover freshwater flooding. For information on coastal and tidal flooding, flash floods, winds, and severe weather risks, please contact your local Weather Forecast Office. NWSSERFC Decision Support Briefing weather.gov/serfc.
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