eVENT Hurricane Tracking Advisory

Hurricane Marco Information from NHC Advisory 13A, 1:00 PM CDT Sun Aug 23, 2020 On the forecast track, Marco will cross the central Gulf of today and will approach southeastern on Monday. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected after Marco moves inland. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Marco is expected to be a hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Monday. Rapid weakening is expected after Marco moves inland.

Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 75 mph Position Relative to 280 mi SSE of the Mouth of the Speed: (category 1) Land: River Monday Aug 24 on the Est. Time & Region: Louisiana Coast Min Central Pressure: 992 mb Coordinates: 25.3 N, 87.4 W

Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained 75 mph 100 mi Bearing/Speed: NNW or 340 degrees at 14 mph Winds Extent: Wind Speed: (category 1)

Forecast Summary ■ Storm surge inundation could reach the following heights: 4-6 ft from Morgan City LA to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne; 2-4 ft from Sabine Pass to Morgan City LA; 2-4 ft from Ocean Springs MS to the MS/AL Border; 2-4 ft from Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas; 1-3 ft from MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay. Swells generated by Marco are likely to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. ■ Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area by midday Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Monday.Ï!D Trop Tropical Dep storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area on Monday, and hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch areas late Ï!S Trop Storm Monday. An isolated tornado will be possible early Monday morning near the southeast Louisiana coast. 1 Ï! Ca t 1 ■ Marco is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across the Central U.S. GulfÏ!D coastTrop Dep through !2 Tuesday. This rainfall may result in isolated areas of flash and urban flooding along the Central U.S. Gulf Coast. Ï!S CaTrop t 2 Storm

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Coastal Watches and Warnings A Storm Surge Warning – meaning there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, near the coastline, during the next 36 hours - is in effect for Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi, Lake Borgne. A Hurricane Warning – meaning that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning

area within 36 hours - is in effect for Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River. A Storm Surge Watch – meaning there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, near the coastline, during the next 48 hours - is in effect for Sabine Pass to Morgan City Louisiana, Ocean Springs Mississippi to the Mississippi/Alabama border, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. A Hurricane Watch – meaning that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area - is in effect for Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans. A Tropical Storm Warning – meaning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours - is in effect for Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans. A Tropical Storm Watch – meaning that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours - is in effect for Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border.

Wind Speed Probabilities and Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Winds The graphic at lower left shows Tropical-Storm-Force Wind Speed Probabilities through 7 AM CDT Friday August 28. It shows probabilities of sustained (1 -minute average) surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 34 kt (39 mph). These wind speed probabilities are based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC forecast error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years. The graphic at lower right shows the Most-Likely Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Winds - the time before or after which the onset of tropical-storm-force winds is equally likely.

Peak Storm Surge Forecast and Flash Flood Potential Peak Storm Surge Forecast The graphic at lower left depicts the forecast storm surge inundation values that are provided in the public advisory (TCP). These values represent the peak height the water could reach above normally dry ground somewhere within the specified areas. Flash Flood Potential The graphic at lower right shows Tropical Storm Isaias’ day 1-3 excessive rainfall outlook through 8 AM EDT Tue August 25.

Contact us Roy Cloutier Mahesh Shinde Prescott Bishop Roy Cloutier Mahesh Shinde roy.cloutier@ willistowerswatson.com [email protected] [email protected] roy.cloutier@ willistowerswatson.com [email protected]

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