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Hurricane Marco

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eVENT Hurricane Tracking Advisory Hurricane Marco Information from NHC Advisory 13A, 1:00 PM CDT Sun Aug 23, 2020 On the forecast track, Marco will cross the central Gulf of Mexico today and will approach southeastern Louisiana on Monday. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected after Marco moves inland. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Marco is expected to be a hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Monday. Rapid weakening is expected after Marco moves inland. Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 75 mph Position Relative to 280 mi SSE of the Mouth of the Speed: (category 1) Land: Mississippi River Monday Aug 24 on the Est. Time & Region: Louisiana Coast Min Central Pressure: 992 mb Coordinates: 25.3 N, 87.4 W Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained 75 mph 100 mi Bearing/Speed: NNW or 340 degrees at 14 mph Winds Extent: Wind Speed: (category 1) Forecast Summary ■ Storm surge inundation could reach the following heights: 4-6 ft from Morgan City LA to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne; 2-4 ft from Sabine Pass to Morgan City LA; 2-4 ft from Ocean Springs MS to the MS/AL Border; 2-4 ft from Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas; 1-3 ft from MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay. Swells generated by Marco are likely to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. ■ Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area by midday Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Monday.Ï!D Trop Tropical Dep storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area on Monday, and hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch areas late Ï!S Trop Storm Monday. An isolated tornado will be possible early Monday morning near the southeast Louisiana coast. 1 Ï! Ca t 1 ■ Marco is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across the Central U.S. GulfÏ! DcoastTrop Dep through !2 Tuesday. This rainfall may result in isolated areas of flash and urban flooding along the Central U.S. Gulf Coast. Ï!S TropCa t 2 Storm !31 Ï! Ca t 31 42 Forecast Track for Hurricane Marco Forecast Wind-field for Huricane Marco Ï! Ca t 42 3 ii !5 pp Ï Ca t 53 iipp ss Jackson Montgomery ss i i Alabama ss Alabama s NH C track si !4 08-2608-27 i Mississippi Ï Ca t 4 Louisiana MM NHC Mobile 5 CAT_IDÏ! Ca t 5 08-25 Florida Austin TD Texas NH C track Baton Rouge TS NHC New Orleans Ca t 1 Houston CAT_IDCa t 2 San Antonio CaTD t 3 CaTS t 4 Ca t 1 Ca t 5 Ca t 2 Watch/WarnTS Watch Coahuila 08-24 Ca t 3 !D Trop De p R Ï R All Fcst Tracks ii Ca t 4 oo G al972016_multimod_atcf r Ca t 5 ra nd TS Watch de !S , N Ï Trop Storm N ort All Fcst Tracks rth Am merriica al972016_multimod_atcf !1 Nuevo Leon Ï Ca t 1 Ï!2 Ca t 2 Tamaulipas 08-23 TropicTropic ofof CancerCancer !3 Ciudad Victoria Ï Ca t 3 0 250 500 1,000 Miles 4 Ï! Ca t 4 !5 © Copyright 2020 Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. All rights reserved: No part of this publication may be reproduced, disseminated, distributed, stored in a retrieval system, transmitted or otherwise transferred in any form or by any means, whether Ï Ca t 5 electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. Some information contained in this document may be compiled from third party sources and Willis Towers Watson Hazard and damage potential maps (as defined below) does not guarantee and is not responsible for the accuracy of such. This document is for general information only and is not intended to be relied upon. Any action based on or in connection with anything contained herein produced by Willis are based on numerical NH C track should be taken only after obtaining specific advice from independent professional advisors of your choice. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc., its parent companies, sister companies, modeling results from Kinetic Analysis subsidiaries or affiliates, Willis Towers Watson PLC and all member companies thereof (hereinafter collectively, “Willis Towers Watson”). Willis Towers Watson is not responsible for the accuracy or completeness of the contents herein and NHC expressly disclaims any responsibility or liability, based on any legal theory, for damages in any form or amount, based upon, arising from or in connection with for the reader's application of any of the contents herein to any analysis or other Corporation. matter, or for any results or conclusions based upon, arising from or in connection with the contents herein, nor do the contents herein guarantee, and should not be construed to guarantee, any particular result or outcome. Willis Towers Watson CAT_ID accepts no responsibility for the content or quality of any third party websites that are referenced. TD Kinetic Analysis Corporation's (KAC) real-time hazard and impact forecast information is provided "as is" and without warranties as to performance or any other warranties whether expressed or implied. The user is strongly cautioned to TS recognize that natural hazards modeling and analysis are subject to many uncertainties. These uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the uncertainties inherent in weather and climate, incomplete or inaccurate weather data, changes to the natural and built environment, limited historical records, and limitations in the state of the art of modeling, as well as limits to the scientific understanding of storm weather phenomena. Anyone making use of the hazard and impact information Ca t 1 provided by KAC, or the information contained within, assumes all liability deriving from such use, and agrees to "hold harmless" any and all agencies or individuals associated with its creation. The user agrees to provide any subsequent users of this data with this disclaimer. The publication of the material contained herein is not intended as a representation or warranty that this information is suitable for any general or particular use. Ca t 2 Ca t 3 Ca t 4 Ca t 5 All Fcst Tracks Coastal Watches and Warnings A Storm Surge Warning – meaning there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, near the coastline, during the next 36 hours - is in effect for Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi, Lake Borgne. A Hurricane Warning – meaning that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours - is in effect for Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River. A Storm Surge Watch – meaning there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, near the coastline, during the next 48 hours - is in effect for Sabine Pass to Morgan City Louisiana, Ocean Springs Mississippi to the Mississippi/Alabama border, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. A Hurricane Watch – meaning that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area - is in effect for Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans. A Tropical Storm Warning – meaning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours - is in effect for Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans. A Tropical Storm Watch – meaning that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours - is in effect for Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border. Wind Speed Probabilities and Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Winds The graphic at lower left shows Tropical-Storm-Force Wind Speed Probabilities through 7 AM CDT Friday August 28. It shows probabilities of sustained (1 -minute average) surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 34 kt (39 mph). These wind speed probabilities are based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC forecast error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years. The graphic at lower right shows the Most-Likely Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Winds - the time before or after which the onset of tropical-storm-force winds is equally likely. Peak Storm Surge Forecast and Flash Flood Potential Peak Storm Surge Forecast The graphic at lower left depicts the forecast storm surge inundation values that are provided in the tropical cyclone public advisory (TCP). These values represent the peak height the water could reach above normally dry ground somewhere within the specified areas. Flash Flood Potential The graphic at lower right shows Tropical Storm Isaias’ day 1-3 excessive rainfall outlook through 8 AM EDT Tue August 25. Contact us Roy Cloutier Mahesh Shinde Prescott Bishop Roy Cloutier Mahesh Shinde roy.cloutier@ willistowerswatson.com [email protected] [email protected] roy.cloutier@ willistowerswatson.com [email protected] 2 .
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