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An Informed System Development Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecasting
Linköping Studies in Science and Technology Dissertations. No. 1734 An Informed System Development Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecasting by Chandan Roy Department of Computer and Information Science Linköping University SE-581 83 Linköping, Sweden Linköping 2016 Cover image: Hurricane Isabel (2003), NASA, image in public domain. Copyright © 2016 Chandan Roy ISBN: 978-91-7685-854-7 ISSN 0345-7524 Printed by LiU Tryck, Linköping 2015 URL: http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-123198 ii Abstract Introduction: Tropical Cyclones (TCs) inflict considerable damage to life and property every year. A major problem is that residents often hesitate to follow evacuation orders when the early warning messages are perceived as inaccurate or uninformative. The root problem is that providing accurate early forecasts can be difficult, especially in countries with less economic and technical means. Aim: The aim of the thesis is to investigate how cyclone early warning systems can be technically improved. This means, first, identifying problems associated with the current cyclone early warning systems, and second, investigating if biologically based Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are feasible to solve some of the identified problems. Method: First, for evaluating the efficiency of cyclone early warning systems, Bangladesh was selected as study area, where a questionnaire survey and an in-depth interview were administered. Second, a review of currently operational TC track forecasting techniques was conducted to gain a better understanding of various techniques’ prediction performance, data requirements, and computational resource requirements. Third, a technique using biologically based ANNs was developed to produce TC track and intensity forecasts. -
Orleans Parish Hazard Mitigation Plan
Hazard Mitigation Plan City of New Orleans Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness January 7, 2021 1300 Perdido Street, Suite 9W03 (504) 658-8740 ready.nola.gov/hazard-mitigation DRAFT – January 7, 2020 1 Table of Contents Section 1: Introduction ................................................................................................................... 9 1.1 New Orleans Community Profile ...................................................................................................... 11 1.1.1 Location ..................................................................................................................................... 11 1.1.2 History of Orleans Parish ........................................................................................................... 12 1.1.3 Climate ....................................................................................................................................... 14 1.1.4 Transportation ............................................................................................................................ 15 1.1.5 Community Assets ..................................................................................................................... 17 1.1.6 Land Use and Zoning ................................................................................................................. 18 1.1.7 Population .................................................................................................................................. 24 1.1.8 -
Graduate Assistants Take on Ucs by Laura Lazzarini !Hills Ica It Lxiii
=1114 the Scene: WA, Weather Non-Trekkers will be assimilated H in the 60s by 'First Contact' pg. 6 Cloudy, breezy, chance of rain November ows in the 50s all oltitim 107. 'indict fill SerS ing San jose Siale t 111%1'1-S11N S111( 1 19.) I Graduate assistants take on UCs By Laura Lazzarini !hills Ica It lxiii. an SIM.' gt admin student, in the Spartan Dads Staff Writer silt. ccclof I Arran ,trid Information Sr ience, iS a teach- ing assistant in Clai k library. if Our issues include; the Graduate :Assistants tin set ei il l'inyersits ((T: Berkeley) doesn7 consider its employees. "Esc! \body has .t tight to complain, a right tic free If then jobs pi "testing California campuses walked spec, h. I don't know 111/W Ole 1:V14(.111i/11 IV campuses their inability to patiii pate in the Association of grieuance process, hiring pm dices, payment and benefit packages. We have %tor k and I wonder whit it its.. 11.1(1 11,1 like it Auto Student Lniplosees, all affiliate of the United seen our compensation packages erode in the past few years.. here ai Spit '," Iiaxter said. Workers. Ii aster assists students who at t' utilizing the CD- I. The so-Ike, whit h hef;.'" M"Ildas. at 3-A and Jim Freeman Rt sem( hi stations and gatewas termin.ds. tan to the IL Univel sit% if Sail Diego, Inanched Graduate student employee "Ms wage is pi ells. decent «inipared to the Test of Berkeley cii pt i I nestle. -
Tuesday, August 25, 2020 8:30 A.M. ET National Current Operations and Monitoring
Tuesday, August 25, 2020 8:30 a.m. ET National Current Operations and Monitoring Significant Incidents or Threats: • Tropical Cyclones Laura and Marco – Preparations and Response • Severe thunderstorms possible – Upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes • Severe thunderstorms, heavy rain, and flash flooding possible – Gulf Coast into the Southeast • Wildfire activity • COVID-19 Tropical Activity: • Atlantic: o Tropical Cyclone Laura o Post-Tropical Cyclone Marco – FINAL • Eastern Pacific: o Disturbance 1: High (90%) o Disturbance 2: High (70%) o Disturbance 3: Low (30%) • Central Pacific: No activity affecting U.S. interests • Western Pacific: No activity affecting U.S. interests Declaration Activity: • Approval: Emergency Declaration –Texas • 7 Amendments Hurricane Laura SATELLITE LOOP 7 AM CDT • WNW at 17mph • 991 mb • 75 mph Hurricane Laura FORECAST TRACK 7 AM CDT • WNW at 17mph • 991 mb • 75 mph Hurricane Laura FORECAST TRACK 7 AM CDT • WNW at 17mph • 991 mb • 75 mph Hurricane Laura MOST LIKELY ARRIVAL OF TS WINDS TS Wind Probabilities Gulfport, MS 18% New Orleans, LA 35% Lafayette, LA 73% Lake Charles, LA 88% Port Arthur, TX 85% Galveston, TX 77% Port O Connor, TX 30% Hurricane Laura HURRICANE WIND PROBABILITIES Hurricane Probabilities Lafayette, LA 12% Lake Charles, LA 33% Port Arthur, TX 35% Galveston, TX 24% Houston, TX 9% Hurricane Laura PEAK STORM SURGE FORECAST Hurricane Laura 5 DAY RAINFALL 10 in 6 in 4 in 2 in 1 in 4 – 8” Isolated 12” Hurricane Laura FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL East Pacific Overview TROPICAL OUTLOOK Central Pacific Overview TROPICAL OUTLOOK Tropical Cyclones Laura and Marco – Preparations/Response Situation: Post Tropical Cyclone Marco remains south of Morgan City, LA and will dissipate Wednesday. -
Hurricane & Tropical Storm
5.8 HURRICANE & TROPICAL STORM SECTION 5.8 HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM 5.8.1 HAZARD DESCRIPTION A tropical cyclone is a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or sub-tropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation. Tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes are all considered tropical cyclones. These storms rotate counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere around the center and are accompanied by heavy rain and strong winds (NOAA, 2013). Almost all tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin (which includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) form between June 1 and November 30 (hurricane season). August and September are peak months for hurricane development. The average wind speeds for tropical storms and hurricanes are listed below: . A tropical depression has a maximum sustained wind speeds of 38 miles per hour (mph) or less . A tropical storm has maximum sustained wind speeds of 39 to 73 mph . A hurricane has maximum sustained wind speeds of 74 mph or higher. In the western North Pacific, hurricanes are called typhoons; similar storms in the Indian Ocean and South Pacific Ocean are called cyclones. A major hurricane has maximum sustained wind speeds of 111 mph or higher (NOAA, 2013). Over a two-year period, the United States coastline is struck by an average of three hurricanes, one of which is classified as a major hurricane. Hurricanes, tropical storms, and tropical depressions may pose a threat to life and property. These storms bring heavy rain, storm surge and flooding (NOAA, 2013). The cooler waters off the coast of New Jersey can serve to diminish the energy of storms that have traveled up the eastern seaboard. -
National Weather Service Southeast River Forecast Center
National Weather Service Southeast River Forecast Center Critical Issue: Tropical Season Review 2008 Impact on Southeast U.S. Water Resources Issued: December 18, 2008 Summary: • A normal number of inland-moving tropical systems impacted the region. • T.S. Fay brought record rain and floods to parts of Florida. • Tropical rainfall resulted in significant hydrologic recharge over much of Florida, Alabama, southern Georgia, and central sections of North and South Carolina. • Some severely drought-impacted areas, including North Georgia, western North and South Carolina, and west central Florida, near Tampa, saw limited or no significant hydrologic recharge this season. 1 Southeast River Forecast Center There are several distinct times of the year when “typical” rainfall patterns provide an opportunity for the recharge of key water resources. The primary climatologically-based recharge period (with the exception of the Florida peninsula) is the winter and early spring months. Secondary periods include the tropical season and a small secondary window of severe weather in the fall. Tropical season, from June 1st through November 30th, is potentially a time for soil and reservoir recharge. Most tropical systems arrive in the late summer and early fall, which otherwise tends to be a relatively dry time of the year. Recharge from tropical systems can be “hit or miss.” While some areas may receive extensive rainfall, other nearby areas can remain completely dry. Rainfall will also vary between tropical seasons. Some seasons have been extremely wet (2004 and 2005), while other seasons had little if any tropical activity moving across the Southeast U.S. (2006 and 2007). This reduction of inland-moving tropical activity in 2006 and 2007 aggravated overall drought conditions. -
Hong Kong Observatory, 134A Nathan Road, Kowloon, Hong Kong
78 BAVI AUG : ,- HAISHEN JANGMI SEP AUG 6 KUJIRA MAYSAK SEP SEP HAGUPIT AUG DOLPHIN SEP /1 CHAN-HOM OCT TD.. MEKKHALA AUG TD.. AUG AUG ATSANI Hong Kong HIGOS NOV AUG DOLPHIN() 2012 SEP : 78 HAISHEN() 2010 NURI ,- /1 BAVI() 2008 SEP JUN JANGMI CHAN-HOM() 2014 NANGKA HIGOS(2007) VONGFONG AUG ()2005 OCT OCT AUG MAY HAGUPIT() 2004 + AUG SINLAKU AUG AUG TD.. JUL MEKKHALA VAMCO ()2006 6 NOV MAYSAK() 2009 AUG * + NANGKA() 2016 AUG TD.. KUJIRA() 2013 SAUDEL SINLAKU() 2003 OCT JUL 45 SEP NOUL OCT JUL GONI() 2019 SEP NURI(2002) ;< OCT JUN MOLAVE * OCT LINFA SAUDEL(2017) OCT 45 LINFA() 2015 OCT GONI OCT ;< NOV MOLAVE(2018) ETAU OCT NOV NOUL(2011) ETAU() 2021 SEP NOV VAMCO() 2022 ATSANI() 2020 NOV OCT KROVANH(2023) DEC KROVANH DEC VONGFONG(2001) MAY 二零二零年 熱帶氣旋 TROPICAL CYCLONES IN 2020 2 二零二一年七月出版 Published July 2021 香港天文台編製 香港九龍彌敦道134A Prepared by: Hong Kong Observatory, 134A Nathan Road, Kowloon, Hong Kong © 版權所有。未經香港天文台台長同意,不得翻印本刊物任何部分內容。 © Copyright reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced without the permission of the Director of the Hong Kong Observatory. 知識產權公告 Intellectual Property Rights Notice All contents contained in this publication, 本刊物的所有內容,包括但不限於所有 including but not limited to all data, maps, 資料、地圖、文本、圖像、圖畫、圖片、 text, graphics, drawings, diagrams, 照片、影像,以及數據或其他資料的匯編 photographs, videos and compilation of data or other materials (the “Materials”) are (下稱「資料」),均受知識產權保護。資 subject to the intellectual property rights 料的知識產權由香港特別行政區政府 which are either owned by the Government of (下稱「政府」)擁有,或經資料的知識產 the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (the “Government”) or have been licensed to 權擁有人授予政府,為本刊物預期的所 the Government by the intellectual property 有目的而處理該等資料。任何人如欲使 rights’ owner(s) of the Materials to deal with 用資料用作非商業用途,均須遵守《香港 such Materials for all the purposes contemplated in this publication. -
Tropical Cyclone Report Hurricane Kyle (AL11008) 25-29 September 2008
Tropical Cyclone Report Hurricane Kyle (AL11008) 25-29 September 2008 Lixion A. Avila National Hurricane Center 5 December 2008 Kyle was a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale that made landfall in southwestern Nova Scotia. a. Synoptic History The development of Kyle was associated with a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa with some convective organization on 12 September. There was a weak low pressure area associated with the wave and the system moved westward and west-southwestward for a few days. As the tropical wave was approaching the Lesser Antilles, it began to interact with a strong upper-level trough over the eastern Caribbean Sea, resulting in an increase in cloudiness and thunderstorms. The surface area of low pressure became better defined as it crossed the Windward Islands and began to develop a larger surface circulation on 19 September. The low pressure area turned toward the northwest and became separated from the wave, which continued its westward track across the Caribbean Sea. The upper-level trough moved westward and weakened, causing small relaxation of westerly shear and allowing the convection associated with the low to become a little more concentrated. The low was near Puerto Rico on 21 September, and continued drifting northwestward. It then spent two days crossing Hispaniola, producing disorganized thunderstorms and a large area of squalls within a convective band over the adjacent Caribbean Sea. During this period, the system lacked a well-defined circulation center as indicated by reconnaissance and local surface data. The low moved northeastward away from Hispaniola, and finally developed a well- defined surface circulation center. -
ANNUAL SUMMARY Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2008*
MAY 2010 A N N U A L S U M M A R Y 1975 ANNUAL SUMMARY Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2008* DANIEL P. BROWN,JOHN L. BEVEN,JAMES L. FRANKLIN, AND ERIC S. BLAKE NOAA/NWS/NCEP, National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida (Manuscript received 27 July 2009, in final form 17 September 2009) ABSTRACT The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season is summarized and the year’s tropical cyclones are described. Sixteen named storms formed in 2008. Of these, eight became hurricanes with five of them strengthening into major hurricanes (category 3 or higher on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale). There was also one tropical de- pression that did not attain tropical storm strength. These totals are above the long-term means of 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. The 2008 Atlantic basin tropical cyclones produced significant impacts from the Greater Antilles to the Turks and Caicos Islands as well as along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Hurricanes Gustav, Ike, and Paloma hit Cuba, as did Tropical Storm Fay. Haiti was hit by Gustav and adversely affected by heavy rains from Fay, Ike, and Hanna. Paloma struck the Cayman Islands as a major hurricane, while Omar was a major hurricane when it passed near the northern Leeward Islands. Six con- secutive cyclones hit the United States, including Hurricanes Dolly, Gustav, and Ike. The death toll from the Atlantic tropical cyclones is approximately 750. A verification of National Hurricane Center official forecasts during 2008 is also presented. Official track forecasts set records for accuracy at all lead times from 12 to 120 h, and forecast skill was also at record levels for all lead times. -
^The Peninsula O>K E I KOREA ECONOMIC INSTITUTE Covering the Economic and Foreign 17 1-5-7 JPP Policies That Impact the Korean Peninsula U 1 I £ ' I Lj ~I' U
Received by NSD/FARA Registration Unit 09/08/2020 10:46:01 AM Flooding and COVID and Sanctions! Oh My! Are These Problems Behind Changes in the DPRK News Format? September 8, 2020 ^The Peninsula o>K E I KOREA ECONOMIC INSTITUTE Covering the economic and foreign 17 1-5-7 JPP policies that impact the Korean peninsula U 1 I £ ' I lj ~i' u By Robert R. King From July 25 to August 26 Kim Jong-un convened three high-level meetings of the Worker’s Party Politburo—an unusual display of urgency by the North Korean leader. Only four such meetings were held in the previous six months of this year. The problems Kim and North Korea are facing seem to be particularly daunting. Flooding from monsoon rains and two typhoons have drenched North Korea in the last five weeks. The Monsoon rains of early August caused landslides and floods which damaged 100,000 acres of farmland (151 sq. miles), some 16,000 households were affected, and the reported death toll was 22. As that disaster ended Typhoon Bavi (No. 8 in North Korea’s typhoon numbering system), struck western North Korea on August 26. On Kim Jong-un’s inspection tour following Bavi, he announced that there was minimal damage—flooded fields, damaged corn and beanstalks, washed out roads and damaged power lines, but not as bad as it might have been. (It was a category 1 hurricane equivalent when it made landfall.) But on top of the serious monsoon rains, it was certainly not welcomed. The first week of September things got worse, typhoon Mavsak (No. -
MEMBER REPORT ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee 10Th Integrated Workshop
MEMBER REPORT ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee 10th Integrated Workshop United States of America Pacific Region Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia 26 – 30 October 2015 _____________________________________ Cover caption: This El Nino Year of 2015 has displayed anomalous equatorial westerlies across the entire Pacific Basin resulting in a chain of tropical cyclones that at times stretched from the Bay of Bengal in the west to the west coast of Mexico in the east. This infrared image shows tropical cyclone activity from the US East Pacific GOES- 15 and the Japanese Himawari-8 geostationary satellite in early July 2015. CONTENTS I. Overview of tropical cyclones which have affected or impacted Member’s area in 2015 II. Summary of progress in Key Result Areas 1. Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador Initiative 2. NWS Director addresses WMO Congress 3. CMA and NOAA sign agreement 4. Annual Tropical Cyclone, Disaster Preparedness and Climate Workshop 5. Annual Tropical Cyclone Exercises 6. NWS StormReady/TsunamiReady Program 7. AWIPS-II Implementation 8. Outreach and Training 9. Pacific International Desk 10. International Cooperation Efforts 11. Technological Improvements 12. Improved Typhoon-related Disaster Risk Management in Various Sectors 13. Resource Mobilization I. Overview of tropical cyclones which have affected or impacted Member’s area in 2015 1. Meteorological Assessment (highlighting forecasting issues/impacts) Western North Pacific (130E to 180, north of the equator) Overview Tropical cyclone activity in the Micronesian portion (area between the Equator and 23N from 130E to 180, not including Kiribati) of the western North Pacific from 15 October 2014 through 30 September 2015 Figure 1: Tropical Cyclones affecting Micronesia from 15 October 2014 through 30 September 2015. -
Climate Change and the Gulf Coast Beverly L
Climate Change and the Gulf Coast Beverly L. Wright, PhD Founding Director March 2021 Climate Change is Real… •There is now overwhelming scientific evidence that climate change is “real” and that it poses a serious http://www.silverbearcafe.co m/private/images/... global threat that cannot be ignored. Global Warming • The International Panel on Climate Change Plenary XXVII predicts further warming of the climate system which can induce change in the global climate in this century far greater than what Image Source: Global Warming Art has been observed in previous centuries. Increase in Impacts We can expect the impacts of • Increased flooding climate change to continue even with the current climate • Higher mean atmospheric temperatures change mitigation policies. • Higher global mean sea levels • Increased precipitation • Increased droughts • Increased atmospheric moisture-holding capacity • Increased heat waves • Increased strength of storms And the List Goes On… • More energetic waves • Storm surges that reach further inland • Under-capacity of urban sewerage and drainage systems • Increased blight • Increased vulnerability of port cities • Disproportionate impacts on disadvantaged population segments 2005 Statistics • The year 2005 saw the worst Atlantic hurricane season since record keeping began in 1851. An average season produces 10 named hurricanes with 2 or 3 becoming major storms. In 2005 there were 27 named storms topping the previous record of 21 in 1933. 2010 Statistics • The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season was the third most active season on record, tying with: • 1887 Atlantic hurricane season, • 1995 Atlantic hurricane season In 2010, 14 to 23 named storms The 2010 Atlantic hurricane were projected, with 3 to 7 • major storms predicted.