Atlantic Tropical Planner
HEADLINE Effective: August 24, 2020 – 0500 CT / 1000 UTC Marco has quickly weakened over the past 12 hours on approach to the gulf coast. Tropical storm Laura has redeveloped south of Cuba and could become a significant hurricane upon entering the Gulf of Mexico later in the week.
Unfavorable
Marco
Laura
Unfavorable Favorable
Active Tropical Threats Feature # Name Current 7-Day Development Sustained Current Location Potential Wind Movement 23L Marco 27.5N 88.2W 100% 50 knots NW at 11 knots 24L Laura 20.8N 78.9W 100% 55 knots WNW at 18 knots
General Discussion Marco is entering a hostile environment over the gulf with enhanced southwesterly wind shear and even some dry air over the western gulf. This is helping to quickly weaken Marco. Landfall with the gulf coast is forecast later this evening or tonight, but winds should continue to diminish further, and impacts should be substantially less than originally forecast.
Meanwhile, the disruption caused by Tropical Storm Laura’s passage over southern Cuba has resulted in Laura’s center redeveloping south of the coast. While in a weakened state currently, environmental conditions are forecast to improve significantly over the gulf upon Laura’s arrival. This will support rapid intensification later in the week.
Prepared by WeatherOps Forecaster: LAWSON | 405.801.3919 | WeatherOps.com Atlantic Tropical Planner Environmental Favorability for Tropical Cyclones
Current SST’s Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential
Current Wind Shear Current Mid-Level Dry Air
Prepared by WeatherOps Forecaster| 405.801.3919 | WeatherOps.com Atlantic Tropical Planner
Day 1 Tropical Cyclone Probability Day 2 Tropical Cyclone Probability
Day 3 Tropical Cyclone Probability Day 4 Tropical Cyclone Probability
Day 5 Tropical Cyclone Probability Day 6 Tropical Cyclone Probability
Prepared by WeatherOps Forecaster| 405.801.3919 | WeatherOps.com Atlantic Tropical Planner
Hurricane Marco Position and Intensity Threat Briefing Feature Center: 27.5N 88.2W Marco will bring tropical storm conditions to the gulf cost over the next 24 hours. Marco is forecast to track generally westward. Heavy rain will be possible with upwards of 3-4+ Current Movement: NW at 11 knots inches to promote a threat for flooding into Tuesday. Sustained winds currently near 50 Current Sustained Winds: 50 knots knots should weaken further and it is likely Marco will only be producing low-end tropical storm force winds of around 35 to 40 knots upon landfall. Marco is forecast to Current Wind Gusts: 60 knots deteriorate rather quickly over the next 24 hours and should become a post-tropical low within 48 hours or less.
7 Day Development Potential Infrared Satellite Image TD 100% TS 100% CAT 1 0% CAT 2 0% CAT 3 0% CAT 4 0% CAT 5 0%
Saffir-Simpson Scale Reference Intensity Wind Speed (KTS) TD 25 - 33 TS 34 - 63 CAT 1 64 - 82 Model Tracks CAT 2 83 - 95 CAT 3 96 - 112 CAT 4 113 - 136 CAT 5 137 +
Prepared by WeatherOps Forecaster| 405.801.3919 | WeatherOps.com Atlantic Tropical Planner
Tropical Storm Laura Position and Intensity Threat Briefing Feature Center: 20.8N 78.9W Laura was hampered by land interactions with Cuba over the past 24 hours but has since redeveloped south of the coast. Into the middle of the week favorable atmospheric Current Movement: WNW at 18 knots conditions and extremely warm water temperatures should be adequate for robust Current Sustained Winds: 55 knots intensification prior to landfall along the US Gulf Coast. There is a moderate probability of major hurricane impacts along coastal Texas or western Louisiana Wednesday Current Wind Gusts: 65 knots evening into Thursday morning. Interests along the Central and Upper Texas Coast into Louisiana will need to pay close attention to the forecast over the next few days.
7 Day Development Potential Infrared Satellite Image TD 100% TS 100% CAT 1 90% CAT 2 80% CAT 3 60% CAT 4 30% CAT 5 10%
Saffir-Simpson Scale Reference Intensity Wind Speed (KTS) TD 25 - 33 TS 34 - 63 CAT 1 64 - 82 Model Tracks CAT 2 83 - 95 CAT 3 96 - 112 CAT 4 113 - 136 CAT 5 137 +
Prepared by WeatherOps Forecaster| 405.801.3919 | WeatherOps.com