DOCSLIB.ORG

Atlantic Tropical Planner

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Atlantic Tropical Planner Atlantic Tropical Planner HEADLINE Effective: August 24, 2020 – 0500 CT / 1000 UTC Marco has quickly weakened over the past 12 hours on approach to the gulf coast. Tropical storm Laura has redeveloped south of Cuba and could become a significant hurricane upon entering the Gulf of Mexico later in the week. Unfavorable Marco Laura Unfavorable Favorable Active Tropical Threats Feature # Name Current 7-Day Development Sustained Current Location Potential Wind Movement 23L Marco 27.5N 88.2W 100% 50 knots NW at 11 knots 24L Laura 20.8N 78.9W 100% 55 knots WNW at 18 knots General Discussion Marco is entering a hostile environment over the gulf with enhanced southwesterly wind shear and even some dry air over the western gulf. This is helping to quickly weaken Marco. Landfall with the gulf coast is forecast later this evening or tonight, but winds should continue to diminish further, and impacts should be substantially less than originally forecast. Meanwhile, the disruption caused by Tropical Storm Laura’s passage over southern Cuba has resulted in Laura’s center redeveloping south of the coast. While in a weakened state currently, environmental conditions are forecast to improve significantly over the gulf upon Laura’s arrival. This will support rapid intensification later in the week. Prepared by WeatherOps Forecaster: LAWSON | 405.801.3919 | WeatherOps.com Atlantic Tropical Planner Environmental Favorability for Tropical Cyclones Current SST’s Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential Current Wind Shear Current Mid-Level Dry Air Prepared by WeatherOps Forecaster| 405.801.3919 | WeatherOps.com Atlantic Tropical Planner Day 1 Tropical Cyclone Probability Day 2 Tropical Cyclone Probability Day 3 Tropical Cyclone Probability Day 4 Tropical Cyclone Probability Day 5 Tropical Cyclone Probability Day 6 Tropical Cyclone Probability Prepared by WeatherOps Forecaster| 405.801.3919 | WeatherOps.com Atlantic Tropical Planner Hurricane Marco Position and Intensity Threat Briefing Feature Center: 27.5N 88.2W Marco will bring tropical storm conditions to the gulf cost over the next 24 hours. Marco is forecast to track generally westward. Heavy rain will be possible with upwards of 3-4+ Current Movement: NW at 11 knots inches to promote a threat for flooding into Tuesday. Sustained winds currently near 50 Current Sustained Winds: 50 knots knots should weaken further and it is likely Marco will only be producing low-end tropical storm force winds of around 35 to 40 knots upon landfall. Marco is forecast to Current Wind Gusts: 60 knots deteriorate rather quickly over the next 24 hours and should become a post-tropical low within 48 hours or less. 7 Day Development Potential Infrared Satellite Image TD 100% TS 100% CAT 1 0% CAT 2 0% CAT 3 0% CAT 4 0% CAT 5 0% Saffir-Simpson Scale Reference Intensity Wind Speed (KTS) TD 25 - 33 TS 34 - 63 CAT 1 64 - 82 Model Tracks CAT 2 83 - 95 CAT 3 96 - 112 CAT 4 113 - 136 CAT 5 137 + Prepared by WeatherOps Forecaster| 405.801.3919 | WeatherOps.com Atlantic Tropical Planner Tropical Storm Laura Position and Intensity Threat Briefing Feature Center: 20.8N 78.9W Laura was hampered by land interactions with Cuba over the past 24 hours but has since redeveloped south of the coast. Into the middle of the week favorable atmospheric Current Movement: WNW at 18 knots conditions and extremely warm water temperatures should be adequate for robust Current Sustained Winds: 55 knots intensification prior to landfall along the US Gulf Coast. There is a moderate probability of major hurricane impacts along coastal Texas or western Louisiana Wednesday Current Wind Gusts: 65 knots evening into Thursday morning. Interests along the Central and Upper Texas Coast into Louisiana will need to pay close attention to the forecast over the next few days. 7 Day Development Potential Infrared Satellite Image TD 100% TS 100% CAT 1 90% CAT 2 80% CAT 3 60% CAT 4 30% CAT 5 10% Saffir-Simpson Scale Reference Intensity Wind Speed (KTS) TD 25 - 33 TS 34 - 63 CAT 1 64 - 82 Model Tracks CAT 2 83 - 95 CAT 3 96 - 112 CAT 4 113 - 136 CAT 5 137 + Prepared by WeatherOps Forecaster| 405.801.3919 | WeatherOps.com.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Orleans Parish Hazard Mitigation Plan
    Hazard Mitigation Plan City of New Orleans Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness January 7, 2021 1300 Perdido Street, Suite 9W03 (504) 658-8740 ready.nola.gov/hazard-mitigation DRAFT – January 7, 2020 1 Table of Contents Section 1: Introduction ................................................................................................................... 9 1.1 New Orleans Community Profile ...................................................................................................... 11 1.1.1 Location ..................................................................................................................................... 11 1.1.2 History of Orleans Parish ........................................................................................................... 12 1.1.3 Climate ....................................................................................................................................... 14 1.1.4 Transportation ............................................................................................................................ 15 1.1.5 Community Assets ..................................................................................................................... 17 1.1.6 Land Use and Zoning ................................................................................................................. 18 1.1.7 Population .................................................................................................................................. 24 1.1.8
    [Show full text]
  • Tuesday, August 25, 2020 8:30 A.M. ET National Current Operations and Monitoring
    Tuesday, August 25, 2020 8:30 a.m. ET National Current Operations and Monitoring Significant Incidents or Threats: • Tropical Cyclones Laura and Marco – Preparations and Response • Severe thunderstorms possible – Upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes • Severe thunderstorms, heavy rain, and flash flooding possible – Gulf Coast into the Southeast • Wildfire activity • COVID-19 Tropical Activity: • Atlantic: o Tropical Cyclone Laura o Post-Tropical Cyclone Marco – FINAL • Eastern Pacific: o Disturbance 1: High (90%) o Disturbance 2: High (70%) o Disturbance 3: Low (30%) • Central Pacific: No activity affecting U.S. interests • Western Pacific: No activity affecting U.S. interests Declaration Activity: • Approval: Emergency Declaration –Texas • 7 Amendments Hurricane Laura SATELLITE LOOP 7 AM CDT • WNW at 17mph • 991 mb • 75 mph Hurricane Laura FORECAST TRACK 7 AM CDT • WNW at 17mph • 991 mb • 75 mph Hurricane Laura FORECAST TRACK 7 AM CDT • WNW at 17mph • 991 mb • 75 mph Hurricane Laura MOST LIKELY ARRIVAL OF TS WINDS TS Wind Probabilities Gulfport, MS 18% New Orleans, LA 35% Lafayette, LA 73% Lake Charles, LA 88% Port Arthur, TX 85% Galveston, TX 77% Port O Connor, TX 30% Hurricane Laura HURRICANE WIND PROBABILITIES Hurricane Probabilities Lafayette, LA 12% Lake Charles, LA 33% Port Arthur, TX 35% Galveston, TX 24% Houston, TX 9% Hurricane Laura PEAK STORM SURGE FORECAST Hurricane Laura 5 DAY RAINFALL 10 in 6 in 4 in 2 in 1 in 4 – 8” Isolated 12” Hurricane Laura FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL East Pacific Overview TROPICAL OUTLOOK Central Pacific Overview TROPICAL OUTLOOK Tropical Cyclones Laura and Marco – Preparations/Response Situation: Post Tropical Cyclone Marco remains south of Morgan City, LA and will dissipate Wednesday.
    [Show full text]
  • Gulf of Mexico Weather Report
    Gulf Of Mexico Weather Report recolonizingRing-tailed Rudolfo that polishing besought, intercommunicating his remarker misprize joltingly reimposed and demonising invidiously. onboard. Unprevented Carpeted Bubba and attested?unprocurable Pate previses her sleave disillusionize midnightly or marshals coequally, is Reynold Synopsis for gulf of mexico during their report a similar to. Weather is the cavity of the atmosphere describing for example the regard to nutrition it get hot or. Data analyses as of mexico. Forecasts gulf of mexico sccf local leaders and reporter with the report a day forecast to move up in the time in. Hurricane Laura is it forecast to intensify to a catastrophic Category 4 as it nears US Gulf Coast Published Wed Aug 26 2020533 AM EDT Updated Wed. Gulf of Mexico Marine Weather and Sea Forecasts Texas. Dry conditions were reported across the atolls and islets on Kwajalein atoll. Tropical Storm Beta path and forecast models in lost of Mexico. TRACK Current music track shows the storm will assure north into. This weather reports. This week or historic town starting on waterway are reported to. Tropical Storm Beta Spurs Hurricane Worries for Texas NBC. Clearwater Beach Gulf Of Mexico Florida Complete Wind. Tropical Storm Cristobal forms in Gulf WKMG. First Alert Weather Rain chances going virtual this weekend with thunderstorms possible. Long island to weather! Tropical Depression 3 forms in the universe of Mexico WFTV. The gulf of. Regional hf radar allows your area over the existing weather and find the best amenities and then these data and. Unsettled weather reports of mexico, dry weather in dallas, nj to see.
    [Show full text]
  • Climate Change and the Gulf Coast Beverly L
    Climate Change and the Gulf Coast Beverly L. Wright, PhD Founding Director March 2021 Climate Change is Real… •There is now overwhelming scientific evidence that climate change is “real” and that it poses a serious http://www.silverbearcafe.co m/private/images/... global threat that cannot be ignored. Global Warming • The International Panel on Climate Change Plenary XXVII predicts further warming of the climate system which can induce change in the global climate in this century far greater than what Image Source: Global Warming Art has been observed in previous centuries. Increase in Impacts We can expect the impacts of • Increased flooding climate change to continue even with the current climate • Higher mean atmospheric temperatures change mitigation policies. • Higher global mean sea levels • Increased precipitation • Increased droughts • Increased atmospheric moisture-holding capacity • Increased heat waves • Increased strength of storms And the List Goes On… • More energetic waves • Storm surges that reach further inland • Under-capacity of urban sewerage and drainage systems • Increased blight • Increased vulnerability of port cities • Disproportionate impacts on disadvantaged population segments 2005 Statistics • The year 2005 saw the worst Atlantic hurricane season since record keeping began in 1851. An average season produces 10 named hurricanes with 2 or 3 becoming major storms. In 2005 there were 27 named storms topping the previous record of 21 in 1933. 2010 Statistics • The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season was the third most active season on record, tying with: • 1887 Atlantic hurricane season, • 1995 Atlantic hurricane season In 2010, 14 to 23 named storms The 2010 Atlantic hurricane were projected, with 3 to 7 • major storms predicted.
    [Show full text]
  • Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook
    Quarterly Climate Impacts Southern Region and Outlook September 2020 National — Significant Events for August and Summer, 2020 Highlights for the Region Temperatures hovered between slightly below normal to slightly above normal for much of the region, with the West experiencing above-normal temperatures. Precipitation varied spatially, with normal to above-normal precipitation in the East and Deep South and below-normal precipitation in the West. The main impacts this summer were those associated with two hurricanes and one tropical storm The average U.S. temperature for August was 74.7°F, 2.6°F above average, ranking third warmest in the 126- making landfall along the Gulf year record. The U.S. precipitation average for August was 2.35 in., 0.27 in. below average, ranking in the driest Coast. one-third of the historical record. The summer average U.S. temperature was 73.6°F, 2.2°F above average, ranking fourth warmest on record. The summer precipitation total was 7.99 in., 0.33 in. below average, ranking in the driest one-third of the record. Regional — Climate Overview for June 2020 to August 2020 Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies Streamflows Departure from Normal (°F) Percent of Normal (%) August Average Streamflow 6/01/2020–8/31/2020 6/01/2020–8/31/2020 vs. Historical Streamflow Summer temperatures ranged Summer precipitation varied between 2° F below normal to spatially across the Southern The above figure illustrates Region. Parts of western Texas August average streamflows in the 2° F above normal across a broad received precipitation 25 percent Texas Gulf and Lower Mississippi portion of the region.
    [Show full text]
  • Thursday's Focus Is on Hurricanes and Flooding
    Florida’s Severe Weather Awareness Week takes place from February 1-5, 2021. Severe Weather Awareness Week is an opportunity for Floridians to learn about the various weather hazards that frequently impact the state and how families and businesses can prepare for these natural events. Each day focuses on a specific weather event. Thursday’s focus is on hurricanes and flooding. The most feared weather phenomenon throughout Florida during the summer and early fall is the tropical cyclone. Close to the tropics and surrounded on three sides by warm water, the unique location of Florida makes it particularly vulnerable to these systems as they develop across the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea. The relatively flat terrain of Florida can also make it susceptible to flooding. Florida has a long history of hurricanes. Records indicate that approximately 118 hurricanes and around 164 tropical storms have impacted the state since 1888 (133 years), with many more cited in history books prior to that year and even before official records were kept. DID YOU KNOW??? No other state in the country has more hurricane landfalls per year on average than Florida does. Nearly 40% of all hurricanes that strike the United States make landfall in Florida. DID YOU KNOW??? In the last 150 years, all of Florida’s counties have been impacted by at least one hurricane. The North Atlantic Ocean hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and continues through November 30. However, tropical systems can still form outside of hurricane season as early as May and as late as December.
    [Show full text]
  • Foreclosures Down, Not out New Year’S Diet Judicial Process to Blame for Backlog by GARY ROBERTS Second with 50,000, Corelogic Reported
    THE WIRE Confusion, relief mark start of new health care reforms PAGE 1 Pick of the Day Bowflex Xtreme, $200 In Today’s THE WIRE PAGE 1 Classifieds! Charlotte Sun AND WEEKLY HERALD SHIP PASSENGERS RESCUED WELCOME BACK, LOVIE All 52 passengers have been rescued from an icebound ship, Tampa Bay announced a five-year deal with Lovie Smith, who which has been trapped in the Antarctic since Christmas Eve. started his coaching career as the Bucs’ assistant. SPORTS PAGE 1 AN EDITION OF THE SUN VOL. 122 NO. 3 AMERICA’S BEST COMMUNITY DAILY FRIDAY JANUARY 3, 2014 www.sunnewspapers.net $1.00 SIDE DISH Salad bars for Foreclosures down, not out New Year’s diet Judicial process to blame for backlog By GARY ROBERTS second with 50,000, CoreLogic reported. month — were less than half the number t’s a new year filled with vows of STAFF WRITER Local experts say the state’s high from the same period a year ago. lost pounds and added green leafy foreclosure numbers are largely due to “Our foreclosure filings are way I substances. (For those of us not in While the number of homes entering Florida being one of 22 judicial foreclo- down,” she said. “We’re back to a state with new marijuana laws, please foreclosure across the nation is at its sure states, where the courts intervene. pre-bubble levels.” know I’m referring lowest level in years, Florida continues The result is a drawn-out foreclosure Last year, 25 percent of Charlotte to things like let- to lead the way with the highest percent- process and a backlog pipeline of cases.
    [Show full text]
  • Campeche, Mexico
    Coastal Cities and their Sustainable Future III 83 VULNERABLE AREAS IN TOURIST CITIES OF COASTAL ZONES: CAMPECHE, MEXICO BERTHA N. CABRERA SÁNCHEZ & JOEL F. AUDEFROY Instituto Politécnico Nacional, ESIA TEC, México ABSTRACT The expansion of cities located in coastal areas, primarily the emergence of settlements on the periphery of Mexican tourist resorts, makes them increasingly vulnerable in physical and urban terms to a variety of natural phenomena (like extreme precipitation, tropical storms and hurricanes), which can cause disasters for local populations. The coastal zone of Campeche is 425 km long and in the last 30 years has undergone increasingly rapid growth of its population and the urban occupation of its coastline, increasing the number of people that might be affected by weather like hurricanes. This paper focuses on two central aspects: first, identifying vulnerable areas that are threatened by hydro-meteorological hazards; and second, identifying strategies for adapting to such risks, based on the experiences of affected communities. This information supports the hypothesis that empowerment and participation of the people, in conjunction with government strategies, can help reduce the risk of disaster and strengthen the inhabitants’ resilience to hydro-meteorological hazards. We present a case study on the city of Campeche, in the state of Campeche, Mexico; a city popular among tourists, with highly valuable urban spaces rich in material, architectural, cultural and historical heritage. The process of urban growth reproduces and deepens inequalities, which directly affect the inhabitants’ resilience against frequent natural phenomena; but a variety of urban, social, economic and political conditions should be taken into account in determining the strategies for surviving hydro-meteorological hazards.
    [Show full text]
  • Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin
    Volume 107, No. 35 www.usda.gov/oce/weather-drought-monitor September 1, 2020 WEEKLY WEATHER AND CROP BULLETIN U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Agricultural Statistics Service National Weather Service and World Agricultural Outlook Board HIGHLIGHTS August 23 – 29, 2020 Contents Highlights provided by USDA/WAOB ategory 4 Hurricane Laura came ashore on August 27 Crop Moisture Maps ................................................................. 2 August 25 Drought Monitor & C at 1:00 am CDT near Cameron, LA, delivering U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook ............................................ 3 nearly unimaginable damage due to high winds and a Extreme Maximum & Minimum Temperature Maps .................. 4 coastal storm surge. At landfall, Laura featured sustained Temperature Departure Map .................................................... 5 winds near 150 mph—the most powerful hurricane to Hurricane Laura: Storm-Related Winds and Rainfall .......... 6 Growing Degree Day Maps ...................................................... 7 make landfall in Louisiana since the 1856 Last Island National Weather Data for Selected Cities ............................... 9 (Isle Dernière) storm. Significant wind damage spread far National Agricultural Summary ............................................... 12 inland and was especially notable in Lake Charles, LA, Crop Progress and Condition Tables ...................................... 13 which had gusts above 130 mph.
    [Show full text]
  • Tropical Cyclone Briefing Update
    TROPICAL STORM LAURA BRIEFING 4:30 PM CT Sunday August 23rd Prepared by: Dan Reilly, WFO Houston/Galveston What has changed: Tropical Storm Laura remains a threat to Texas. Only slight changes to track today. Forecast to make landfall as a Category 2 Hurricane along Upper Texas or Louisiana Coast @NWSHouston www.weather.gov/Houston Current Satellite View Houston/Galveston Tropical Storm Laura WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ▪ Hurricane Marco and Tropical Storm Laura shown. Laura also forecast to Tropical Storm Marco become a hurricane. ▪ For Marco more significant impacts Tropical Storm Laura should be across Louisiana. Marco will likely make a left turn and weaken either before or after Louisiana landfall. ▪ A landfall of Laura as a hurricane along the Upper Texas coast is possible which would bring significant wind, storm surge and rainfall to the area. Could also curve north into Louisiana. 8/23/2020 5:00 PM www.weather.gov/Houston Situation Overview Houston/Galveston Tropical Storm Laura WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ▪ Forecast track/cone shown. SE TX well inside the forecast cone. Note landfall likely Wednesday afternoon or evening. Center could reasonably track anywhere within the cone. ▪ Intensity at landfall forecast to be 90 knots or 100 mph which would make it a Cat 2 on SSHWS. ▪ Uncertainty in track should decrease once Laura emerges from the Caribbean Islands and out into the Gulf Monday night, early Tuesday morning. ▪ Not expected to slow down, should move steadily across the area. ▪ Based on past track errors, center will track within the NOTE: Do not focus on the exact track. Impacts can occur well outside the area cone 2/3 of the time.
    [Show full text]
  • Ocean–Atmosphere Interactions During Hurricanes Marco and Laura (2020)
    remote sensing Article Ocean–Atmosphere Interactions during Hurricanes Marco and Laura (2020) Emily N. Eley 1,* , Bulusu Subrahmanyam 1 and Corinne B. Trott 2 1 School of the Earth, Ocean and Environment, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208, USA; [email protected] 2 Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis Space Center, Mississippi, MS 39529, USA; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] Abstract: During August of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season, the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) was affected by two subsequent storms, Hurricanes Marco and Laura. Hurricane Marco entered the GoM first (22 August) and was briefly promoted to a Category 1 storm. Hurricane Laura followed Marco closely (25 August) and attained Category 4 status after a period of rapid intensification. Typically, hurricanes do not form this close together; this study aims to explain the existence of both hurricanes through the analysis of air-sea fluxes, local thermodynamics, and upper-level circulation. The GoM and its quality of warm, high ocean heat content waters proved to be a resilient and powerful reservoir of heat and moisture fuel for both hurricanes; however, an area of lower ocean heat content due to circulation dynamics was crucial in the evolution of both Marco and Laura. An analysis of wind shear further explained the evolution of both hurricanes. Furthermore, a suite of satellite observations and ocean model outputs were used to evaluate the biophysical modulations in the GoM. The cold core eddy (CCE) and Mississippi River surface plume had the greatest biophysical oceanic responses; the oceanic modulations were initialized by Marco and extended temporally and Citation: Eley, E.N.; Subrahmanyam, spatially by Laura.
    [Show full text]
  • Hurricane Marco
    eVENT Hurricane Tracking Advisory Hurricane Marco Information from NHC Advisory 13A, 1:00 PM CDT Sun Aug 23, 2020 On the forecast track, Marco will cross the central Gulf of Mexico today and will approach southeastern Louisiana on Monday. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected after Marco moves inland. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Marco is expected to be a hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Monday. Rapid weakening is expected after Marco moves inland. Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 75 mph Position Relative to 280 mi SSE of the Mouth of the Speed: (category 1) Land: Mississippi River Monday Aug 24 on the Est. Time & Region: Louisiana Coast Min Central Pressure: 992 mb Coordinates: 25.3 N, 87.4 W Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained 75 mph 100 mi Bearing/Speed: NNW or 340 degrees at 14 mph Winds Extent: Wind Speed: (category 1) Forecast Summary ■ Storm surge inundation could reach the following heights: 4-6 ft from Morgan City LA to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne; 2-4 ft from Sabine Pass to Morgan City LA; 2-4 ft from Ocean Springs MS to the MS/AL Border; 2-4 ft from Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas; 1-3 ft from MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay. Swells generated by Marco are likely to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
    [Show full text]