West Yorkshire PTE, Transport for Greater Manchester, Bradford Council, Calderdale Council Calder Valley Line Enhancement Strategy ISSUE

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Report121525-53 Issue | 30 March 2012

Ove Arup & Partners Ltd This report takes into account the particular Admiral House instructions and requirements of our client. Rose Wharf It is not intended for and should not be relied 78 East Street upon by any third party and no responsibility is Leeds undertaken to any third party. LS9 8EE United Kingdom arup.com Job number Report121525-53 West Yorkshire PTE, Transport for Greater Manchester, Bradford Calder Valley Line Enhancement Strategy Council, Calderdale Council ISSUE

Contents

Page

Executive Summary i

1 Introduction 1 1.1 Context for the Study 1 1.2 Objectives for the Study 2 1.3 Structure of the Report 3

2 Timetable Options 4 2.1 Previous Proposals 4 2.2 Stakeholder Feedback and Network Changes 5 2.3 Calder Valley Line Timetable Options 5 2.4 Services to Burnley 8 2.5 Huddersfield to Halifax Links 8 2.6 Route Choice for the Blackpool North Trains 9 2.7 Timetable Options East of Leeds 9 2.8 Timetable Options West of Manchester 9 2.9 Other Considerations - Open Access Operators 11 2.10 Infrastructure Requirements 12 2.11 Conclusions 12

3 Rolling Stock Options 14 3.1 Introduction 14 3.2 Review of Diesel Rolling Stock Options 14 3.3 Rolling Stock Strategy 17 3.4 Unit Requirements 17 3.5 Future Electric Rolling Stock 18 3.6 Conclusions 19

4 Business Case Appraisal 20 4.1 Demand and Revenue Modelling 20 4.2 Demand and Revenue From Burnley 22 4.3 Demand and Revenue From Low Moor 23 4.4 Revenue Impacts from the Northern Hub 23 4.5 Summary of the Demand Forecasts 25 4.6 Economic Appraisal 25 4.7 Societal Benefits 27 4.8 Journey Time Benefits 27 4.9 Rolling Stock Refurbishment 27 4.10 Wider Economic Impacts 27

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4.11 Operating Costs 28 4.12 Capital Costs 28 4.13 Summary of Financial and Economic Appraisal 29 4.14 Business Case for Todmorden Curve 30 4.15 Rolling Stock Sensitivity Test 30 4.16 Conclusions 31

5 Impact of Potential Electrification 32 5.1 Introduction 32 5.2 Phased Implementation 32 5.3 Assessment of the Benefits and Costs 32 5.4 Appraisal Results and Chapter Conclusions 33

6 Conclusions and Recommendations 34 6.1 Main Conclusions 34 6.2 Recommendations 35

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Executive Summary

Objectives for the Calder Valley Line This report examines future timetable options for the Calder Valley Line and the estimated benefits that could be realised through improvements to the services and infrastructure, progressing the studies previously completed for stakeholders served by the route. With a clear emphasis on affordability, it proposes some updated timetable options which support stakeholder objectives more effectively, as well as taking account of other issues including the Northern Hub and various electrification projects proposed for the north of England. The Calder Valley Line links Leeds with Manchester via Bradford, Halifax and Rochdale, plus several intermediate towns in the Upper Calder Valley, as well as providing a link between York and Blackpool North and Huddersfield via Brighouse. Supporting economic growth was identified as a high priority for the route, given the employment and housing growth envisaged. The main objectives for improving the Calder Valley line include: • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED]; • A range of complementary solutions including enhancing service quality and access to the network including better walking, cycling and bus access, plus additional car parking provision; • Aligning development, land use and wider transport plans to make best use of the railway and strengthen rail demand. Timetable Options (Phase 1) Several timetable options were examined and discussed with stakeholders including local authorities, Northern Rail and Network Rail. The main features of this timetable option compared with the current service include: • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED]. The figure illustrates the standard hourly service pattern for the ‘Preferred’ option, with an extra [REDACTED] units required to operate this timetable.

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Figure: Standard Hourly Service Pattern for the ‘Preferred’ Option [REDACTED] Alternative timetable options for extending Calder Valley Line services east of Leeds [REDACTED] Committed funding has been secured for the Todmorden Curve which will allow 1tph between East Lancashire and Manchester via Todmorden. This service has been integrated into the proposals wider Calder Valley Line timetable. The proposals described above will need more detailed timetable development, taking into account the Northern Hub and the proposed electrification schemes The Northern Hub scheme creates the opportunity for a number of new destinations that could potentially be served by Calder Valley Lines trains to the west of Manchester [REDACTED]. Rolling Stock Strategy (Phase 2) The service quality of existing rolling stock units is poor, so alternative solutions should be considered to complement the timetable changes. The [REDACTED] could be cascaded from the Huddersfield Line (Manchester Piccadilly to Leeds via Huddersfield) following electrification and these would offer several potential advantages compared with the existing fleet in terms of internal comfort, acceleration and alternative door configuration to help minimise overall dwell times. However, the operating costs for these units are likely to be very expensive. In the longer term, the introduction of [REDACTED] may be more appropriate, particularly for the commuter services. Deployment of these units on the Calder Valley Line will be dependent on the completion of electrification schemes and stakeholders making the case for additional subsidy to reflect the higher operating costs. Generating additional revenue from the enhanced timetable will be a useful indicator to help demonstrate the potential of the route. A programme of refurbishments for the existing [REDACTED] might represent the most suitable short term solution. The lower operating costs for [REDACTED] compared with other types of high quality diesel unit would be consistent with the principles of the McNulty Review to minimise subsidy requirements. The estimated refurbishment costs are about [REDACTED] based on similar schemes, which would equate to around £[REDACTED] of investment if all units deployed on the Calder Valley Line were to be refurbished. Stakeholders will need to lobby for the inclusion of these improvements to be delivered as part of the forthcoming Northern franchise. Infrastructure Requirements (Phase 3) Several infrastructure schemes are required to support these service options including capacity improvements at Bradford Interchange and Leeds and signalling renewals along the line. Indicative capital costs for the infrastructure works range from £[REDACTED] to £[REDACTED]m. The capacity improvements at Leeds station would have benefits for other services which have not been fully assessed in this appraisal. It will be important to ensure these enhancements are carefully aligned with the wider programme of renewals to maximise cost efficiencies.

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Outline Business Case As stated previously, ‘affordability’ considerations have been used to underpin the approach to this study. An outline business case has been prepared using outputs from MOIRA to appraise the impacts of timetable changes. Flows expected to benefit from significant changes in journey time changes have been uplifted to reflect the transformational impacts. The best performing timetable specification would generate an additional [REDACTED] trips per annum, plus an extra £[REDACTED] revenue. Separate appraisal work conducted for the Todmorden Curve scheme indicates an additional [REDACTED] journeys per year will be generated from that scheme with [REDACTED] of these journeys being new to the rail network. The new timetable options would offer the potential for a number of new cross Manchester journey opportunities. About [REDACTED] of passengers using other [REDACTED] routes ([REDACTED]) have a destination beyond Manchester city centre. Extension of Calder Valley Line services to [REDACTED] could generate additional rail revenue. Trains to these destinations would offer cross-Manchester journey opportunities, consistent with the overall objectives of the Northern Hub. The outline business case is based on the ‘Preferred’ timetable option and offers [REDACTED] value for money with a benefit cost ratio of [REDACTED]. The value for money that this project offers would make a strong case to the Department for Transport for including the proposals in the next Northern franchise. Electrification of the Calder Valley Line (Phase 4) The potential electrification of the Calder Valley Line has been examined based on several phases; [REDACTED]. There are a number of potential benefits of electrifying the Calder Valley Line including lower operating costs compared with diesel units, higher revenues resulting from faster journey times and the “Sparks Effect”, plus societal benefits. An indicative capital cost of £[REDACTED] per double track kilometre has been derived from the costs for the North TransPennine corridor produced by Network Rail (Manchester Piccadilly – Huddersfield – Leeds – York). Based on the current timetable the business case for electrification of the Calder Valley Line is [REDACTED]. With the Preferred Timetable the business case is [REDACTED], with a benefit cost ratio above [REDACTED] for the section between Rochdale to Leeds via Halifax, plus the link to Mirfield from Halifax and Sowerby Bridge (this assumes Manchester to Rochdale is funded separately). The case for electrifying between Mirfield and Wakefield Westgate or Hall Royd Junction to Preston is [REDACTED], which is consistent with previous analysis. The appraisal results for electrification are consistent with previous analysis and demonstrate why this is not a current priority. Instead, the timetable improvements described earlier is the most urgent requirement, with electrification potentially delivered during Control Period 6 (2019-2024).

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1 Introduction

1.1 Context for the Study Arup has recently completed a number of studies examining future timetable options for the Calder Valley Line and the estimated benefits that could be realised. The Calder Valley Line links Leeds with Manchester via Bradford, Halifax and Rochdale, plus several intermediate towns in the Upper Calder Valley. Services utilising the Line also provide a link between York and Blackpool North, plus Wakefield Westgate / Huddersfield via Brighouse to Halifax. Supporting economic growth was identified as a high priority for the route, given the employment and housing growth envisaged. Better connectivity between the principal catchments would help to achieve this outcome. Congestion problems affecting the parallel road corridor reinforces the potential role to be played by rail, but a combination of slow journey speeds, limited frequency in some cases, evidence of suppressed demand, and overcrowding affecting peak trains approaching Leeds and Manchester restricts the opportunities to fulfil the role played by rail. These core issues are worsened by in some cases, by weak modal integration with buses, the quality of walking and cycling routes to stations, limited park and ride provision and inadequate station facilities. To address the current limitations of the Calder Valley Line timetable, several strategic themes were developed as follows: • Improved strategic connectivity between the principal stations, including faster, more frequent trains through out the day; • Providing adequate capacity to support commuter flows to Leeds and Manchester Victoria; • Maintaining links between the smaller stations, with a more even distribution between departures. Additional rolling stock would be required to operate an alternative timetable, especially during the peak. Diesel rolling stock availability is limited at present, so a phased implementation programme would be required. In addition to an improved timetable, a range of complementary solutions including enhancing service quality and more convenient access to the network were recommended, although the latter proposals could be implemented independently of timetable changes. The station improvements and car park expansions examined as part of earlier work highlighted the importance of these complementary interventions. An initial financial and economic appraisal was completed, plus an assessment of the wider economic benefits. The proposed timetables would offer strong value for money, with benefit cost ratios in excess of [REDACTED]. These benefits will need to be demonstrated to decision makers, to help make the case for investment. In response to feedback received from several stakeholders including Northern Rail, a more detailed Market Analysis report was prepared. This highlighted the following conclusions: • [REDACTED];

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• [REDACTED]. Addressing the limitations of the Calder Valley Line corridor will become even more important following the completion of the proposed Northern Hub. The Hub is expected to act as a catalyst for delivering service changes. It is understood stakeholders need to respond to the Department for Transport as part of the High Level Output Statement 2 specifying requirements for possible service changes. This response is required by March 2012. The previous timetable proposals will need to be updated to reflect the specific policy issues which have emerged during the last 6-12 months affecting the Calder Valley Line. In particular: • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED].

1.2 Objectives for the Study

1.2.1 Timetable Proposals The Calder Valley Line timetable proposals have been developed in a collaborative manner with stakeholders and align ideas with the Northern Hub. Network Rail has developed notional timetable specifications for the Line but these are subject to revision dependent on discussions with stakeholders. It is recognised that the strategy for the Calder Valley Line must be capable of responding to other proposals outlined above. A ‘fluid’ strategy is needed to ensure proposals for this Line can be revised in response to possible changes to other initiatives. The discussions with Network Rail relating to the above proposals were fundamental factors influencing the initial timetable development. The following objectives were also agreed with stakeholders and used to underpin the themes development for the Calder Valley Line: • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED]. It is inevitable that some difficult choices will need to be made during this timetable development, largely in response to the network capacity constraints and affordability issues. Therefore, the outputs from the Market Analysis report have been used to identify those flows where rail performs strongly, and offers the potential to develop the market. [REDACTED].

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1.2.2 Other Topics The other issues also need to be reflected: • Rolling stock strategy: in response to concerns about service quality, review the potential benefits and costs associated with different types of rolling stock including [REDACTED]; • Identification of necessary infrastructure enhancements: essential to support an improved and more flexible timetable, including equipment for signalling upgrades; line speed improvements and additional capacity (loops, bay platforms or turn-back facilities) The infrastructure requirements must be co-ordinated with the forthcoming programme of renewals; • Updating the financial and economic business case: the previous outputs need to be updated to reflect the amended timetable assumptions to demonstrate an affordable business case for the investment; • Briefly examine the business case for electrification: In the wake of current proposals, it was felt that as brief review of the benefits and costs associated with electrification of the Line using standard industry assumptions was worthwhile. Options were presented to stakeholders at a workshop and off-line discussion for critical review and feedback.

1.3 Structure of the Report The report includes the following topics: • Timetable options; • Rolling stock and infrastructure requirements; • Business case appraisal of the options; • Conclusions and recommendations; • Appendices – supporting data and a brief overview of the case for future electrification of the route;

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2 Timetable Options

2.1 Previous Proposals Earlier Arup studies for the Calder Valley Line identified a number of possible timetable specifications to help address some of the existing limitations affecting the route. Figure 2.1 illustrates the current service pattern which was used as a starting point. These proposals tried to address a number of limitations including poor inter-urban connectivity, slow journey times and inconvenient gaps between departures and provided a useful starting point for this analysis. Figure 2.1: Current Calder Valley Line Timetable

Source: Arup

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2.2 Stakeholder Feedback and Network Changes Whilst the proposals for the previous timetable enhancements represent a useful starting point, there are a number of important issues which affect their viability. These took account of the relatively poor operational performance and lack of limited stop timetable during the peak periods. The following summarises the main topics which require further consideration: • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED]. Following the funding announcement in December 2011, Network Rail is presently taking forward the planning work for electrifying the route between Manchester and York via Leeds. The characteristics of Phase 1 of the Northern Hub (funding confirmed March 2011) and the North West electrification project (funding confirmed November 2010) were discussed with Network Rail to ensure these assumptions are incorporated into the timetable development for the Calder Valley Line. The main issues to consider include: • Phased North West electrification, with Manchester to Liverpool and Huyton to Wigan completed by 2014, with Preston to Blackpool North by 2015 and Euxton Junction to Manchester via Bolton by 2016. • Proposals for electrification of the Trans Pennine route between Manchester and York via Leeds could be an alternative to some of the potential infrastructure schemes (construction of loops / four tracking etc). This is still being explored since it could offer better value for money; • Network Rail will provide a broad timetable specification, with the DfT (or even the operators) required to specify how to best use the capacity offered; • A potential timetable for the Huddersfield Line following electrification is described below although further work is needed to refine the proposals: • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED]. • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED].

2.3 Calder Valley Line Timetable Options

2.3.1 Leeds to Manchester / Blackpool North The main themes have been used to inform the development of the Calder Valley Line timetables were presented in Section 1.2.1. The other fundamental issue is the requirement for regular interval services, and this is required for two main

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reasons. Firstly, it will ensure there are regular departures from the smaller intermediate stations rather than the ‘unbalanced’ current timetable which has irregular departure times. Secondly, the standard pattern services to / from Manchester Victoria from the Calder Valley Line will enable trains to be more easily extended to other major stations across the North West, helping to develop new direct journey opportunities. Several timetable options have been developed, with the main stopping patterns and frequencies summarised in Table 2.1. Services changes east of Leeds are considered separately. Table 2.1: Summary of the Main Timetable Features

Option Service 1 2 3

[REDACTED]

Source: Arup Figures 2.2 to 2.4 illustrate the above proposals as schematic diagrams based on a standard pattern timetable. The timing of the hourly standard pattern services is shown in Appendix A1. The main differences between the options include: • Option 1 versus current timetable: [REDACTED]; • Option 2 versus Option 1: [REDACTED]; • Option 3 versus Option 2: [REDACTED].

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Option 3 fulfils the stakeholder aspirations and supports wider objectives more effectively. Consequently, this is recommended as the preferred timetable. Figure 2.2: Option 1 Timetable Schematic [REDACTED] Source: Arup

Figure 2.3: Option 2: Timetable Schematic [REDACTED]

Source: Arup

Figure 2.4: Option 3: Timetable Schematic

Source: Arup

Options 2 and 3 also include passive provision for a new station at [REDACTED], which would be incorporated into the above timetable proposals subject to a satisfactory business case and resolving any operational issues. The timetable proposals also include provision for one hourly freight path per hour between Manchester Victoria and Heaton Lodge Junction, which could also operate to/from the East Lancashire Line. The 2012 Operational Planning Rules have been utilised in the development of timetables except where infrastructure enhancements have been identified (see Section 2.7). Furthermore, the 2012 Working Timetable on the C and D lines between Leeds Station and Holbeck Junction has been used. This assumes that Leeds to London Kings Cross, Cross Country and local services via Wakefield Westgate are unchanged. The Northern Hub GRIP 2 study assessed journey time improvements for the Calder Valley Line. This suggested that savings of [REDACTED] minutes could be achieved dependent on the type of rolling stock being operated, based on a capital cost of £[REDACTED]. These journey time improvements are assumed to be delivered in all options and are included in the appraisal. A conservative assumption of [REDACTED] was assumed, to reflect the relative performance of Class 158s versus other types of unit. [REDACTED] Table 2.2 summarises the strengths and weaknesses that would be delivered by the proposed Timetable Specifications, from the perspective of individual local authority District stakeholders. This assessment does not consider the aspirations for new stations.

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Table 2.2: Overview of Timetable Specification for Stakeholders

Stakeholder Positive Impacts Negative Impacts

Bradford [REDACTED] [REDACTED]

Calderdale [REDACTED] [REDACTED]

Burnley [REDACTED] [REDACTED]

Kirklees [REDACTED] [REDACTED]

Leeds [REDACTED] [REDACTED]

Manchester [REDACTED] [REDACTED]

Rochdale [REDACTED] [REDACTED]

2.4 Services to Burnley All three Calder Valley options include 1tph between East Lancashire and Manchester Victoria via Todmorden. Burnley Council has an aspiration to achieve a journey time of about [REDACTED] for services to Manchester Victoria. In the short term, the need to serve intermediate stations between [REDACTED] and [REDACTED] will make this a challenging target However, the probable extension of other services to [REDACTED] as part of the electrification of the route via Bolton and since the Northern Hub will enable the timetable to be restructured. However, it is possible some services may be extended beyond [REDACTED] to terminate at [REDACTED] as part of the Northern Hub proposals. The route would be electrified with signalling upgraded. Intermediate stations between [REDACTED] and [REDACTED] would be served by these electric trains. This would enable other Calder Valley Line trains to run non-stop between [REDACTED] and [REDACTED], allowing some of the intermediate stops on the Burnley services to be removed. This timetable change should allow the journey time target of [REDACTED] to be realised. [REDACTED]

2.5 Huddersfield to Halifax Links [REDACTED]

2.5.1 Option 1 [REDACTED]

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2.5.2 Option 2 [REDACTED]

2.6 Route Choice for the Blackpool North Trains [REDACTED]

2.7 Timetable Options East of Leeds At present, there are two stopping trains per hour east of Leeds extended from the Calder Valley Line operating to Selby and York. However, the electrification between Leeds and York means it is necessary to consider alternative options for the Calder Valley Line trains east of Leeds to take account of operational issues. [REDACTED]

2.8 Timetable Options West of Manchester

2.8.1 Assessment of Potential Options There is an existing hourly service west of Manchester Victoria towards Wigan Wallgate which calls at all intermediate stations. Introducing changes to this service is not envisaged as part of future timetable proposals for the Calder Valley Line, since it provides useful cross-Manchester journey opportunities. However, the platform capacity at [REDACTED] is insufficient unless the terminating trains are extended through to other destinations. Consequently, there is a requirement to extend Calder Valley Line services beyond [REDACTED]. There are a number of new destinations that could potentially be served by Calder Valley Lines trains to the [REDACTED] which are summarised below: [REDACTED] [REDACTED] In addition to the new direct journey opportunities, it should be recognised that passengers will be able to use [REDACTED] as an interchange station given the wider train service pattern that will be introduced. There will be a phased approach to service extensions (for example proposals introduced pre and post 2018) which is dependent on the completion of the Northern Hub Phase 1 and the North West electrification scheme. It will also be important to consider links to Salford Crescent, the closest rail station to MediaCityUK, for BBC North. Table 2.3 summarises the strengths and weaknesses associated with each service proposal. The existing travel market for cross-Manchester journeys is very small as demonstrated in the [REDACTED]. Individual cross-Manchester flows from Calder Valley Line stations generate less than £[REDACTED] revenue per annum, although there is a combined total of £[REDACTED] from [REDACTED], [REDACTED], [REDACTED] and [REDACTED] to [REDACTED]. [REDACTED] Furthermore, operating diesel trains from the Calder Valley Line under the wires to [REDACTED] or [REDACTED] may weaken the wider case for electrification

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especially if this causes capacity constraints. Network capacity constraints could also affect the feasibility of extending Calder Valley Line trains to other routes without exporting delays, for example, if there are significant single track sections. Capacity issues restrict the options to extend Calder Valley Line trains to stations [REDACTED], except for [REDACTED]. Furthermore, extending Calder Valley Line services towards [REDACTED] could also create performance risks, especially given the interface with [REDACTED] and the [REDACTED], although there are proposals to address some of the capacity issues. The extension of Calder Valley Line trains to [REDACTED] may offer a number of benefits. Network Rail is proposing to increase frequencies on this corridor as part of the Northern Hub. The opportunity to connect with stations [REDACTED] will expand journey opportunities. The limited stop services extended from the Calder Valley Line will also offer alternatives to the busy motorways ([REDACTED]), helping to attract new rail revenue. Table 2.3: Strengths and Weaknesses of Potential Service Extensions

Service Strengths Weaknesses

[REDACTED] [REDACTED] [REDACTED]

Based on the conclusions presented above, the possible service options pre 2018 include: • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED]. Post 2018 the potential options include: • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED]. Services from the Calder Valley Line should be linked to trains with a similar stopping pattern beyond Manchester Victoria for operational efficiency reasons.

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Consequently, there is a likelihood that the longer distance trains from [REDACTED] would be extended to [REDACTED], with trains from [REDACTED] serving local stations within Greater Manchester. Chapter 4 also examines the relative size of these potential travel markets in order to inform these recommendations.

2.8.2 Extension to [REDACTED] This proposal assumes the Arriva Trains Wales service continues to operate from Manchester Piccadilly to Llandudno. The benefits of these extensions are as follows: • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED]; However, these proposals are dependent on addressing the following operational issues: • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED].

2.8.3 Extension to [REDACTED] [REDACTED].

2.9 Other Considerations - Open Access Operators

2.9.1 Grand Central The Bradford Interchange to London Kings Cross service can continue to operate providing the signalling is upgraded to offer four minute headways between Mill Lane Junction and Halifax. If the signalling is not upgraded, one of the hourly trains between Leeds and Halifax service could not operate when Grand Central services were running.

2.9.2 Alliance Rail Alliance Rail has published proposals to operate trains every two hours from Bradford Interchange calling at Halifax, Hebden Bridge, Todmorden, Rochdale, Manchester Victoria, then Eccles, Newton le Willows, Warrington Bank Quay and the West Coast Main Line to London. One of the semi-fast trains between Leeds and Manchester Victoria would need to be replaced every 2 hours if the Alliance Rail open access services were approved. Frequencies operated by the franchised operator would need to be revised, with potential rolling stock inefficiencies introduced if Northern (or its replacement) were required to operate an irregular timetable. Platform capacity could also be a constraint, if the timing of trains terminating at Bradford Interchange coincided with the Grand Central services. The timing of the Alliance Rail services will be heavily influenced by the West Coast Main Line timetable. These constraints could lead to a sub optimal timetable for the Calder

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Valley and the risks of importing performance problems from a wider area. Some of the benefits from the Alliance Rail proposals would be offered if the Calder Valley Line services were extended to Warrington Bank Quay for regular connections with the West Coast Main Line. The new high quality rolling stock that would be introduced by Alliance will create passenger benefits, but the abstraction of passengers from the franchised operator could weaken the overall case for investment.

2.10 Infrastructure Requirements To deliver the proposed timetable specifications a review of the infrastructure schemes required has been conducted. The total scheme costs are summarised in Table 2.4 with Table 2.5 describing the specific schemes. The infrastructure schemes include signalling improvements, line speed increases and enhancements at major stations. The additional track and platform capacity required at Leeds Station to deliver the Calder Valley timetable proposals is part of a wider strategic requirement for additional capacity at the station. This is due to wider service enhancements that will cause capacity issues at [REDACTED] station in the peak. These service improvements are summarised in the Northern RUS. Of the package of measures proposed for Leeds station in the RUS, only the [REDACTED] will be required to deliver the timetable proposed in Options 2 and 3. The line speed improvements are included in all three options since these enhancements form an integral part of the overall business case. Table 2.4: Infrastructure Requirements by Option

Timetable Option Cost (£m)

Option 1 [REDACTED]

Option 2 [REDACTED]

Option 3 [REDACTED]

Source: Arup estimate. All options include £[REDACTED] of committed funding

2.11 Conclusions The main conclusions include: • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED].

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Table 2.5: Infrastructure Requirements

Proposed Scheme Name Description Impacts Cost Option Need Delivery Date

Todmorden Curve [REDACTED]

Bi-directional signalling, a third line and new/ relocated crossovers at [REDACTED] Bradford Interchange in association with planned signalling renewals

New platform and signalling at Halifax [REDACTED]

Leeds Platform Capacity Improvements [REDACTED]

Signalling renewals Todmorden

Signalling renewals Smithy Bridge [REDACTED] Signalling renewals Milner Royd

Signalling renewals Vitriol Works

Rochdale Remodelling and Turnback/Bay Platform [REDACTED]

Line speed improvements: Summary [REDACTED]

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3 Rolling Stock Options

3.1 Introduction The existing rolling stock quality used to operate the Calder Valley services is relatively poor and not conducive to attract passengers from other modes to help unlock business and commuter demand growth. A package of improvements is required to support the wider timetable changes, and several important features have been identified to help assess unit suitability: • Rapid acceleration to help minimise overall journey times; • Enhanced passenger comfort including the availability of first class accommodation, power sockets and refreshments; • Wide doors on commuter services to minimise dwell times at stations; • Competitive operating costs to ensure proposals are affordable. The procurement of new diesel units is unlikely to be realised given affordability and cognisance of the wider electrification programme which will reduce the need for such units. Consequently, the review of possible units must be aligned to the availability of existing trains to identify the most suitable for the Calder Valley.

3.2 Review of Diesel Rolling Stock Options A mixture of Class 14X and 15X units currently operate, but a longer term strategy needs to consider several potential alternatives, including refurbished Class 158s, plus the deployment of 170s, 175s and 185s. The Class 170s, 175s and Class 185s have capability to operate at 100mph. The suitability of Class 22X units for the Calder Valley Line was not examined since the 125mph units incur significantly higher lease and operating costs compared with above examples. The higher speed units are unlikely to be required, given the 75mph maximum line speed. Furthermore, the relatively low revenue currently generated by the Calder Valley Line means the business case for introducing Class 22X is unlikely to be robust. The following outlines the performance indicators used: • Availability: unit availability including opportunities for cascading trains; • Estimated operating costs: indicative lease costs and fuel / maintenance costs. Costs have been indexed against estimates for a Class 158 unit to maintain commercial confidentiality; • Suitability for commuter and longer distance services: internal layout and comfort for both busy, short distance flows and longer distance inter-urban journeys. This recognises the different attributes required; • Depot location: existing maintenance facilities; • Requirement to refurbish interiors: the existing Class 14X and 15X fleet has poor passenger facilities; • Performance: maximum operating speeds and acceleration characteristics; • Reliability: based on Miles per Technical Incident (MTIN) to illustrate rolling stock reliability. This differs from the previous Miles per Casualty (MPC). The MTIN is more challenging and therefore the totals are generally lower;

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• Capacity and train lengths: number of seats and typical train lengths; • Competition with other operators: scope for introducing these trains on other routes which could create competition. Table 3.1: Summary of the Diesel Rolling Stock Options Class 156 (3 car) Class 158 (3 car) Class 170 (3 car) Northern already operates a fleet Northern already operates a of Class 158s. Five other Five operators deploy Class 170units on fleet of Class 156s and these operators also run Class a mixture of commuter and inter-urban Availability will be cascaded following 158s/159s, but there are no plans routes. The London Overground and electrification of the NW to cascade these units resulting TransPennine Express fleets could be triangle. from the committed electrification cascaded as a result of electrification. schemes. Estimated operating costs per annum [REDACTED] [REDACTED] [REDACTED] (Indexed) Units have narrow doors at Units have narrow doors at either Units have two sets of wide doors, so either end of the carriage, so end of the carriage, so dwell times boarding / alighting is relatively quick. Suitability dwell times would be are extended compared with other Mix of tables and airline seats with (commuter / longer extended compared with rolling stock. This would be a significant standing space in the distance) other rolling stock. This constraint if these were deployed vestibules, so suitable for both commuter would be a constraint for for commuter services and long distance services commuter services The capacity of the existing depot is Units are maintained at Units are maintained at Neville already fully utilised. Also there is no Depot location Allerton, Liverpool Hill Leeds TOC expertise in maintaining these units. Existing trains have no first class, Units are 22 to 24 years old. plugs for laptops etc so units Units are 6-13 years old and include first Existing trains have no first would need to be refurbished. class accommodation. Plug sockets are Requirement to class, plugs for laptops etc or Class 158 / 159 units operated by available on the units operated by Trans- refurbish interiors availability of refreshments South West Trains or East Pennine Express. No improvements so units would need to be Midlands Trains Class 158s offer required. refurbished. a useful comparator 100mph, Current line speed is only 75mph, so no scope to exploit the higher 75 mph, acceleration of 90mph, acceleration of 0.050 Performance speeds. Acceleration of 0.066 m/s2 at 0.015 m/s2 at 75 mph. m/s2 at 75mph. 75mph. Would offer improved performance versus Class 158s. Best performing 47,000 to 71,000 Reliability (Miles MTIN MAA 4,485 MTIN Moving Annual per Technical 6,500 to 13,500 MTIN MAA Average (MAA) Incident) Rest of fleet 1,900 to 6,200 MTIN MAA 300 seats on a 4-car set 207 seats on a 3-car set 200 seats on a 3-car set Capacity (seats) and Some principal stations allow longer trains, but intermediates only permit 4-car trains, selective door opening train lengths required. Cascaded units could be deployed to Competition with Not applicable, Northern Not applicable, Northern already other inter-urban routes, for example, other operators already operates these units operates these units Leeds to Nottingham via Sheffield or Middlesbrough to Newcastle.

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Table 3.1: Summary of the Diesel Rolling Stock Options

Class 175 (2 - 3 car) Class 185 (3 car)

51 units are currently available, with around Arriva Trains Wales currently operates a 40-45 expected to be cascaded following the Availability fleet of 27 Class 175 units. These units completion of various electrification are a mixture of 2 and 3 car units. schemes.

Estimated operating costs per [REDACTED] [REDACTED] annum (Indexed) Units have two sets of wide doors. Mix of Units have narrow doors at either end of tables and airline seats with significant the carriage, so dwell times are extended standing space in the vestibules, so suitable Suitability (commuter / longer compared with other rolling stock. This for both commuter and long distance distance) would be a constraint if these were services. Units would need to operate with deployed for commuter services selective door opening at some stations if they operated as 6-car sets. Units are currently maintained at dedicated Depot location Units are maintained at Chester depots at Ardwick, Manchester and also in York. Units are 11-13 years old but were Units are only 5-6 years old, and include refurbished in 2010/2011. All seats are Requirement to refurbish first class, plug sockets for laptops and standard class. Whilst refreshments are interiors availability of refreshments. No available, power sockets have not been improvements required installed. 100mph. Current line speed is only 75mph, 100mph,. Current line speed is only so no scope to exploit the higher speeds. Performance 75mph, so no scope to exploit the higher Acceleration of 0.130 m/s2 at 75mph. speeds. Would offer improved performance versus Class 158s. Reliability (Miles per Technical 12,500 MTIN MAA 13,415 MTIN MAA Incident) 186 seats on a 3-car set 181 seats on a 3-car set Capacity (seats) and train Some principal stations allow longer trains, but intermediates only permit 4-car trains, lengths selective door opening required. Cascaded TransPennine Express units could Units are currently operating on route be deployed to other inter-urban routes, for Competition with other sections that are not planned for example, Aberdeen / Inverness to Glasgow operators electrification so chance of cascade may and Edinburgh. This takes account of the be limited. potential revenue generation given the higher operating costs vs other DMUs

Source: Locomotives and Coaching Stock 2009, confidential Arup project work, Modern Railways January 2012

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3.3 Rolling Stock Strategy There are a number of possible rolling stock options which could be introduced to address service quality. The [REDACTED] fleet offer a number of important advantages, in terms of their acceleration characteristics, higher capacities especially in terms of the standing space and quality. These attributes indicate the [REDACTED] might be the most solution for the Calder Valley Line from a technical and quality perspective. However, the significantly higher operating costs that would be incurred by the [REDACTED] compared with the [REDACTED] are likely to make the former units unaffordable. The [REDACTED] or [REDACTED] provide an alternative rolling stock solution, particularly as these are newer units compare with the Class 158s. Whilst some [REDACTED] may be extended to the Calder Valley Line given the deployment of these units to / from Chester, their higher operating cost is a constraint affecting the wider business case. The [REDACTED] would also provide an alternative option to enhance rolling stock quality, but this presents a number of risks. There are some dependencies related to the timing of the rolling stock cascade to release these units, whilst the slightly higher operating costs compared with the current [REDACTED] will inevitably have an impact on the financial case. The retention of the [REDACTED], with a programme of internal refurbishment to address service quality could offer the most attractive short term proposal. Northern already has a fleet of [REDACTED], so procurement will not be subject to external rolling stock cascades. The modifications completed by South West Trains and East Midlands Trains offer a potential example for benchmarking the Calder Valley Line services. These improvements have been completed to a high standard to enhance passenger comfort. Furthermore, the [REDACTED] units incur lower operating costs compared with the alternative 100mph trains. This is an important consideration, given the wider affordability and value for money issues affecting the Calder Valley Line. The [REDACTED] are not suitable for the longer distance Calder Valley Line services, since the 75mph operating speeds would be inadequate beyond Leeds and Manchester Victoria. With this in mind, the recommended diesel rolling stock strategy comprises refurbished [REDACTED] to operate services between Leeds and Manchester Victoria, plus Blackpool North to York. The [REDACTED] are not suitable to replace the [REDACTED] units, so cascaded [REDACTED] in the longer term would offer a better solution given the internal layout. Additional funding will be required, given the higher lease costs for these trains versus the [REDACTED] units. The [REDACTED] could also represent a longer term solution for the Leeds to Manchester and York to Blackpool services, although additional funding would also be required. A sensitivity test reporting the impact of the higher operating costs is reported in Chapter 4.

3.4 Unit Requirements An assessment of the rolling stock requirements has been undertaken and is summarised in Table 3.2 for the core Calder Valley services and in Table 3.3 for the potential Calder Valley extensions to the [REDACTED]. These tables indicate that between [REDACTED] and [REDACTED] additional trains will be required

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to operate the core Calder Valley services, dependent on the selection of timetable. With extensions to [REDACTED], trains will be required. It is assumed the rolling stock from Selby will be procured separately as part of other services. Table 3.2: Core Calder Valley Rolling Stock Assessment

Service Dec 2011 Option 1 Options 2, 2A & 3

[REDACTED] [REDACTED] [REDACTED] [REDACTED]

Total Core [REDACTED] [REDACTED] [REDACTED] Calder Valley

Source: Arup calculation Table 3.3: Calder Valley Extensions Rolling Stock Assessment

Additional Trains for Dec 2011 Pre 2018 Post 2018 Extensions

[REDACTED] [REDACTED] [REDACTED] [REDACTED]

Source: Arup calculation

3.5 Future Electric Rolling Stock Stakeholders have a longer term aspiration to electrify the Calder Valley Line, so the potential electric rolling stock options have also been examined. For example, Transport for Greater Manchester is lobbying for electrification between Rochdale and Manchester Victoria to be delivered as part of the Northern Hub. The remainder of the Calder Valley Line could then be electrified. In response to the

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relatively weak business case for electrification particularly in the short term, as reported in Chapter 5, the rolling stock strategy for electric units has not been considered.

3.6 Conclusions The following summarises the main conclusions: • An extra [REDACTED] units would be required to support the revised timetable; • Whilst there are a number of potential benefits offered by the [REDACTED] fleet, in terms of their comfort, acceleration characteristics and door configuration to minimise dwell times at stations, the financial impact of operating these trains is a concern given significant additional funding would be required compared with the existing [REDACTED]; • The deployment of [REDACTED] may offer a more affordable alternative solution than the [REDACTED], particularly for units operating the commuter services. These units have pairs of wide doors, so boarding / alighting times are quicker. As noted earlier, the timescales to procure these units is dependent on external factors and the higher operating costs will mean an increased requirement for subsidy; • The operational cost savings offered by the [REDACTED] compared with other types of higher specification diesel unit, would be consistent with the principles of the McNulty Review to minimise subsidy requirements. However, the units would need refurbishment at an estimated cost of about £[REDACTED] per 2-car unit based on similar schemes, for example, East Midlands Trains. This would equate to around £[REDACTED] of investment if all units deployed on the Calder Valley Line were refurbished; • [REDACTED].

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4 Business Case Appraisal

4.1 Demand and Revenue Modelling There are several components to the demand and revenue forecasting. The timetable changes proposed in Chapter 2 could deliver the following benefits: • Journey time reductions between station pairs could be significant and achieve transformational changes in demand; • Wholly new rail demand generated by new services/stations: • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED].

4.1.1 Background MOIRA software is normally used to estimate the impact of the incremental timetable revisions in terms of the changes in journeys and revenue. The software is widely used by train operators, Network Rail, the Department for Transport and their consultants to examine the change in revenue resulting from modest timetable changes. Elasticities are applied to the proportional change in Generalised Journey Times (GJT)1 to calculate the likely change in journeys and revenue. A copy of the latest MOIRA database has been obtained from Northern Rail for the purposes of this study.

4.1.2 Methodology – Incremental Changes in Journey Times For the largest flows identified by MOIRA to be affected by the proposed timetable changes, we have analysed the proportional changes in GJT resulting from the current and proposed timetable. The interim and preferred timetable specifications have been developed to all day service patterns, with adjustments for weekend demand. If the percentage difference in GJT is less than 10% as a result of the timetable changes, an elasticity of -0.9 has been applied, for example, a 10% reduction in GJT would lead to a 9% increase in demand. The forecast revenue and demand has been estimated using MOIRA based on the formulae shown below which is appropriate for modelling incremental changes. / = . 𝑵𝑵𝑵𝑵𝑵𝑵 𝑫𝑫𝑫𝑫𝑫𝑫𝑫𝑫𝑫𝑫𝑫𝑫 𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹 −𝟎𝟎 𝟗𝟗 × / 𝑮𝑮𝑮𝑮𝑮𝑮𝒏𝒏𝒏𝒏𝒏𝒏 �� 𝒆𝒆𝒆𝒆𝒆𝒆𝒆𝒆𝒆𝒆𝒆𝒆𝒆𝒆𝒆𝒆 𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅 𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓 𝑮𝑮𝑮𝑮𝑮𝑮𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐 4.1.3 Impact of ‘Transformational’ Journey Time Changes However, the functionality of the MOIRA software means it is unlikely to fully represent the impact from the ‘transformational’ journey times that could be delivered for some stations by the timetable changes. Previous project work has demonstrated the elasticity based function used in MOIRA under-estimates some

1 Generalised journey time includes actual time spent travelling on each service, plus an allowance for wait time (depending on service frequency) and interchange penalty (if applicable)

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of the benefits if major timetable revisions are proposed. An alternative approach to supplement the MOIRA forecasts has been devised to avoid under-estimating the scale of the timetable benefits as per our previous business case work.

4.1.4 Modelling Transformational Changes in Journey Times The standard modelling methodology used in MOIRA does not fully take account of the transformational journey time savings. The introduction of direct journey opportunities, changes to the stopping pattern or higher frequencies between stations could mean the percentage change in GJT is more than 10%. Instead of applying the elasticity of -0.9 to the proportional change in GJT as described above, alternative parameters have therefore been used. Guidance in the Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook has been examined to establish an appropriate elasticity value (August 2009)2. The advice suggests that if current speeds are relatively slow and a significant improvement is delivered, (including the removal of interchanges), elasticities of -1.5 may be appropriate. This elasticity has therefore been used in developing the forecasts. Previous analysis has highlighted the relative under-performance of the Calder Valley Line, compared with other corridors. For example, the number of trips between [REDACTED] and [REDACTED] to [REDACTED] is significantly smaller than the totals from [REDACTED] and [REDACTED] respectively. If a combination of timetable changes and other service quality improvements were implemented, this would potentially generate further demand and revenue increases, over and above the transformational changes described above. However, the impact of these changes has not been incorporated into the overall business case.

4.1.5 Results of Standard MOIRA Methodology Table 4.1 illustrates the change in journeys and revenue resulting from the timetable proposals. The results do not include the impact of the alternative elasticities as described above. Table 4.1: Summary of the Annual Change in Journeys and Revenue

Change in Demand (000s) Change in Revenue (£000s)

Option 1 [REDACTED] [REDACTED]

Option 2 [REDACTED] [REDACTED]

Option 2A [REDACTED] [REDACTED]

Option 3 [REDACTED] [REDACTED] Source: Arup analysis. Demand is based on annual flows to September 2010, whilst revenue is expressed in 2009 Q3 Prices

2 Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook (August 2009), Chapter C4

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The Option 2A timetable generates the largest change in annual journeys and revenue compared with the base scenario, although the associated capital costs will be higher.

4.1.6 Results of Modelling ‘Transformational’ Journey Time Impacts Table 4.2 illustrates the change in journeys and revenue resulting from the timetable proposals for the ‘Preferred’ option. The use of standard or alternative elasticities has been carefully applied to individual flows to avoid double counting. These scenarios include two based upon use of alternative elasticities and illustrate the higher level of revenue and patronage that could be achieved.

Table 4.2: Summary of the Annual Change in Journeys and Revenue

Change in Demand (000s) Change in Revenue (£000s)

Preferred Option (-0.9 [REDACTED] [REDACTED] elasticity)

Preferred Option transformational impact (- [REDACTED] [REDACTED] 1.5 elasticity)

Difference [REDACTED] [REDACTED]

Source: Arup analysis. Demand is based on annual flows to September 2010, whilst revenue is expressed in 2009 Q3 Prices

4.2 Demand and Revenue From Burnley Burnley Borough Council has recently prepared a business case to understand the number of trips that will be generated the new rail service. The business case has adopted slightly different assumptions in terms of the timetable compared with the analysis reported in Chapter 2 (ie a stop at Littleborough has not been assumed), although a stop at Moston was assumed in the BBC report. An estimated [REDACTED] passenger journeys are forecast during the first year of operation (2014) with background growth and other factors stimulating increases to [REDACTED] by 2026. About [REDACTED] of these journeys are new to rail, with [REDACTED] of the new trips between Burnley Manchester Road and Manchester, [REDACTED] from Accrington to Manchester, with [REDACTED] of the total from Rochdale to Burnley. The methodology used to calculate the revenue was based on existing yields per passenger journey taken from MOIRA. The average fare yield of £[REDACTED] was calculated using a weighted average based on the forecast distribution of journeys. This was used to calculate total revenue and incorporated into the wider financial and economic business case.

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4.3 Demand and Revenue From Low Moor Plans to build a new station at Low Moor in Bradford are included in the Local Transport Plan. As this scheme is now considered ‘committed’ by Metro, the costs and benefits associated with the scheme have been removed from the analysis. Options 2 and 3 include passive provision for some services to call at Low Moor.

4.4 Revenue Impacts from the Northern Hub The number of through trips currently travelling beyond Manchester from the Calder Valley Line is [REDACTED]. However, it is envisaged that the proposed timetable changes will generate significant new cross-Manchester journey opportunities, particularly following the introduction of direct services to [REDACTED], with trips from other modes transferring to rail. MOIRA is not a suitable forecasting tool, given current demand is very low. Consequently, an alternative benchmarking exercise has been conducted to estimate the levels of demand for cross-Manchester trips that could be generated in response to the improved journey opportunities. The number of cross-Manchester trips from Stalybridge towards Piccadilly has been examined using MOIRA, with the existing TransPennine Express services used as a proxy for the Calder Valley Line. This indicates about [REDACTED] of TPE trips west of Stalybridge have a destination beyond Piccadilly, with through services to Manchester Airport or Liverpool, plus the opportunity to access a wider choice of services is a contributory factor. The revised timetable will introduce some new through trains, generating wholly new [REDACTED] trips. The remaining sections of Chapter 4.4 explore some of the potential markets that could contribute to this [REDACTED] uplift.

4.4.1 Market Analysis – Manchester Airport There are 2tph to Manchester Airport from Leeds and Huddersfield, and this contributes to the higher rail mode share from these Districts compared with Bradford and Calderdale. Civil Aviation Authority data (2007) has been used to review the number of total trips and rail mode share, as shown in Table 4.3. The difference in rail mode share to Manchester Airport indicates the benefit of direct services. [REDACTED].

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Table 4.3: Rail Trips from West Yorkshire to Manchester Airport [REDACTED]

Current Future Potential District Total Surface Rail Mode Rail Total Surface Rail Mode Rail Difference Access Trips Share Trips Access Trips Share Trips

Leeds

Kirklees

Calderdale

Bradford

Wakefield

Total

Source: CAA data Table 4.3 illustrates that if rail services from Bradford and Calderdale directly call at Manchester Airport, additional patronage will be generated. The mode share for Kirklees could be used as a proxy for Bradford and Calderdale. Based on the current number of trips, an extra [REDACTED] additional rail journeys could be completed each year. This estimate also fails to take into account other passengers currently using other airports including Leeds Bradford in response to the poor public transport access to Manchester Airport will not be captured by the CAA statistics. [REDACTED]. [REDACTED] The potential change in revenue generated from the additional direct journeys to Manchester Airport is summarised in Table 4.4. Passengers from West Yorkshire are likely to pay almost £[REDACTED] each based on existing fares, so the change in total revenue yield is relatively high. It also demonstrates there whilst there is some revenue potential if direct trains from the [REDACTED] catchment operate to [REDACTED], the total from Bradford and Calderdale is higher. Table 4.4: Estimated Impact of Service Changes – [REDACTED]

Segment Annual Additional Average Yield (Full Annual Potential Rail Journeys and Reduced, £) Revenue (£)

Source: Revenue yields from Huddersfield, Bolton and Blackburn to Manchester Airport

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4.4.2 Market Analysis – Other destinations Furthermore, if new direct rail journeys are provided they will become a competitive alternative for trips currently using busy motorway corridors towards Warrington and Chester (M62 and M56). Mode shift is therefore likely to generate additional rail trips and this will contribute to the 30% uplift in trips.

4.5 Summary of the Demand Forecasts Table 4.5 summarises the demand and revenue forecasts for the various market segments. This demonstrates the impact of the transformational journey time improvements estimated using the alternative elasticities comprise the majority of the forecast change in demand and revenue. Table 4.5: Annual Incremental Demand Summary (2010)* [REDACTED]

Segment Change in Journeys (‘000’s)

Source: MOIRA and Arup calculations. *Note: [REDACTED] to [REDACTED] values shown as 2014 figures. The net change in demand for Burnley services is presented, assuming 50% of trips are new to rail.

4.6 Economic Appraisal The annual revenue estimates for market segments presented in Section 4.5 have been used to inform the 60 year economic appraisal. These include: • Ramp up factors: these are included to reflect demand (and therefore the revenue) for the timetable changes and new stations will ramp up over a five year period. Separate ramp up factors have been assumed for the each market segment to take account of likely differences in user behaviour. The ramp up factors utilised are presented in Table 4.6. These are prudent assumptions compared with the standard parameters normally used and assume that the transformational impacts take longer to actually realise and that only limited cross-Manchester trips will be realised prior to the completion of the Northern Hub;

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Table 4.6: Ramp Up Factors by Market Segment

Ramp Up MOIRA (GJT MOIRA (GJT Cross-Manchester Factors <10%) >10%) Trips Year 1 75% 50% 0% Year 2 90% 75% 0% Year 3 100% 90% 0% Year 4 100% 100% 0% Year 5 100% 100% 30% Year 6 100% 100% 50% Year 7 100% 100% 60% Year 8 100% 100% 70% Year 9 100% 100% 80% Year 10 100% 100% 90% Year 11 100% 100% 100%

Source: Arup estimates • Fare revenue growth: It has been assumed that by 2015 (assumed start year for the revised timetable) that fares will grow at Retail Price Index (RPI) +1% for the life of the appraisal period. This is a prudent assumption given Northern Rail fares have been increasing above RPI+1% in recent years and are set to increase further in 2012 for another three years. • Rail passenger growth: future year passenger growth assumptions have been based upon information presented in Tables 3.6 and 3.8 of the Northern Rail Utilisation Strategy prepared by Network Rail. These are summarised in Table 4.7 below. These growth factors illustrate percentage growth in rail passenger demand for the years 2014, 2019, 2024 and 2029 for a ‘high’ and ‘low’ growth scenario. We have assumed linear growth for the intermediate years, with no further growth beyond 2029. A ‘blended’ growth rate has been used to reflect the local trips to Leeds, Manchester along with the inter-urban journeys based on current trip patterns.

Table 4.7: Northern RUS Growth Factors

2014 2019 2024 2029 Leeds Low 4% 16% 26% 41% Manchester Low 3% 14% 24% 36% Leeds High 13% 31% 44% 60% Manchester High 10% 26% 39% 52% Inter Urban Low 7% 14% 21% 27% Inter Urban High 14% 25% 34% 42%

Source: Northern RUS

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4.7 Societal Benefits To calculate the highway decongestion benefits, the outputs from the MOIRA modelling have been adjusted take account of the transformational impacts of the timetable changes not accounted for by MOIRA. WebTAG provides guidance on the percentage of trips assumed to transfer by car and this parameter has been applied to the MOIRA outputs to estimate the car kilometres removed from the network. The latest WebTAG information was used to value these decongestion benefits over the 60 year appraisal period. The accident reduction benefits and other environmental benefits using the guidance outlined in WebTAG have also been calculated. These benefits are also related to the number of car kilometres removed from the network.

4.8 Journey Time Benefits To calculate the journey time saving benefits for new and existing users, the outputs of the MOIRA modelling to extract estimates of journey time savings (£s) for new and existing users (for new users assuming the rule of a half) have been used. For new users these estimates have then been uplifted to take account of the transformational impacts of the timetable changes which are not accounted for by MOIRA. The Value of Time is assumed to grow year on year in accordance with WebTAG guidance.

4.9 Rolling Stock Refurbishment To account for the proposed refurbishment of the existing rolling stock, it has been assumed that the benefits will be equal to 2.5% of fare revenue. This is in accordance PDFH 4.1 which states that a refurbishment may be worth 2.5% of fare if it improves levels of seating layout, ride quality, ventilation, ambience, noise and seating comfort. These uplifts would be in accordance with the significant improvement in rolling stock delivered.

4.10 Wider Economic Impacts In addition to conventional transport benefits, the proposed scheme will also generate beneficial wider economic impacts. Agglomeration benefits are expected to be the most significant of the four wider impacts as defined by DfT. In our previous work we estimated the agglomeration benefits that could be generated using a simplified methodology based on the principles of the approach outlined in DfT’s latest guidance3. To update this analysis we have factored the results based on the changes in revenue that have occurred for the revised timetable specification outlined in Section 2.3. Agglomeration benefits are presented as an annual value for the year 2011 in 2002 prices (as in DfT Dataset) and in totality discounted over a 60-year time horizon. The analysis undertaken demonstrates that the proposed scheme generates significant agglomeration benefits - especially in relation to the scope of the intervention. Table 4.8 indicates the annual agglomeration benefits are around

3 TAG Unit 2.8: Wider Impacts and Regeneration (For Consultation, September 2009) and TAG Unit 3.5.14: The Wider Impacts Sub-Objective (For Consultation, September 2009).

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£[REDACTED] discounted over 60 years. These benefits are expected to accrue to businesses in the core employment locations served, and ultimately the national economy. They will support rebalancing of the economy and economic growth. Table 4.8: Agglomeration Benefit (60 year appraisal period)

Agglomeration Benefit (60 year appraisal period) [REDACTED] [REDACTED] [REDACTED] [REDACTED] Total [REDACTED]

Source: Arup analysis

4.11 Operating Costs

4.11.1 Rail Service Operating Costs [REDACTED] Table 4.9: Annual Operating Cost Comparison (2008 prices)

Annual Train KM (millions) Annual Operating Costs (£m)

[REDACTED] [REDACTED] [REDACTED]

Source: Arup calculation

4.11.2 Station Operating Costs For the new station at Low Moor, an annual operating cost of £[REDACTED] per annum has been applied, in line with the Metro Business Case. For the economic appraisal it has been assumed the operating costs will increase by RPI each year.

4.12 Capital Costs

4.12.1 Infrastructure In order to achieve the timetable improvements it is necessary to deliver some infrastructure improvement schemes. These are summarised in Chapter 2. For the ‘Preferred option’ these equate to £[REDACTED]. In accordance with WebTAG guidance an allowance for risk and optimism bias has been made in relation to the capital costs. A 30% risk allowance and 66% optimism bias has been assumed. The Todmorden Curve is a committed scheme. Funding has already been secured, and is therefore not included in the capital costs. All the other schemes presented in Table 2.5 are included except for the Rochdale remodelling and bay platforms.

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These are not required for the Calder Valley Line improvements but are assumed to be necessary to support the Northern Hub.

4.12.2 Rolling Stock There will also be the requirement to refurbish the rolling stock prior to use. For [REDACTED] units it has been estimated the refurbishment costs will be in the region of £[REDACTED] per vehicle. It has been estimated that the ‘Preferred’ option will require [REDACTED] vehicles to operate the core Calder Valley services, with refurbishment costs in the region of £[REDACTED]. These costs have been estimated based upon the costs of refurbishing East Midlands Trains fleet of [REDACTED] vehicles.

4.13 Summary of Financial and Economic Appraisal Table 4.10 summarises the financial appraisal of the scheme. All figures are per annum assuming full maturity of demand following the introduction of the timetable changes. [REDACTED] Table 4.10: Summary of Financial Appraisal (2015)

Preferred Option (£m, -1.5 Costs/Revenues elasticity)

Operating Costs [REDACTED] Revenue* [REDACTED] Difference [REDACTED]

Source: Arup calculation *Revenue increases after ramp up in future years with significant additional revenue resulting from through services post introduction of the Northern Hub. An economic benefit cost ratio for the scheme has been calculated and shows that the scheme offers good value for money. The central case scenario generates a BCR of [REDACTED] including the wider economic impacts. The results are shown in more detail in Table 4.11. The BCR is likely to be even higher once crowding benefits and an uplift in ticket revenues (to account for ticketless travel) has been applied. If the -0.9 elasticity is used, the BCR is [REDACTED].

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Table 4.11: Summary of Economic Appraisal [REDACTED]

Central Case -1.5 Central Case -0.9 elasticity Transport User Benefits elasticity (£000s) (£000s)

Highway Decongestion , Accidents and Environmental Benefits Journey Time Impacts Rolling Stock Refurbishment Total User Benefits Other Wider Economic Benefits Wider Economic Benefits Total User Benefits Including WEIs Costs Operating Costs Capital Costs Total Costs Revenue Revenue Summary Net Costs to Government BCR (excluding WEIs) BCR (including WEIs)

Source: Arup forecasting models

4.14 Business Case for Todmorden Curve A separate business case has been prepared for the Todmorden Curve by consultants appointed by Burnley Borough Council. The results indicated the scheme produced a benefit cost ratio of [REDACTED].

4.15 Rolling Stock Sensitivity Test The main case appraisal assumed the use of refurbished [REDACTED] units. A sensitivity test has been conducted assuming the use of [REDACTED] units. These units are around [REDACTED] more expensive to operate than [REDACTED]. If the [REDACTED] units are deployed, the BCR falls from [REDACTED] to [REDACTED]. These numbers exclude any of the additional benefits such as, journey ambiance or journey time savings resulting from improved acceleration that may accrue from using the higher quality [REDACTED] units.

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4.16 Conclusions The following summarises the main conclusions emerging from the financial and economic appraisal: • The impact of the ‘Preferred’ timetable has been examined using MOIRA software, with a higher elasticity of -1.5 derived from PDFH applied to flows that benefit from transformational journey time changes. This generates almost [REDACTED] additional journeys per annum, with a further [REDACTED] trips if cross-Manchester flows are attracted; • The Todmorden curve scheme has committed funding and will allow direct services to run between Manchester Victoria and Burnley via Todmorden. Separate appraisal work conducted for the scheme indicates that the scheme will result in around [REDACTED] additional journeys per year with 50% of these journeys new to rail. Revenue has been calculated using existing fare yields. The benefit cost ratio for this scheme is [REDACTED]; • The new timetable options offer the potential for a number of new cross Manchester journey opportunities. MOIRA has been examined to estimate the scale of any potential uplift resulting from new journey opportunities. An uplift of [REDACTED] has been applied; • To help demonstrate the [REDACTED] adjustment, the CAA data has been examined to estimate the potential market for through trips to Manchester Airport from selected Districts in West Yorkshire and Greater Manchester. Attracting motorists from the busy [REDACTED] corridors west of Manchester will help to boost revenues; • The preferred option generates a BCR of [REDACTED] with the sensitivity based on an elasticity of -0.9 of [REDACTED]. Both scenarios demonstrate the schemes generate good value for money; • The business case for line speed improvements is slightly lower compared with the core scheme set out above, although this could be strengthened by additional passengers attracted by the improved timetable.

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5 Impact of Potential Electrification

5.1 Introduction There have been several announcements indicating the level of support from the Government for electrification has significantly increased: • Great Western Main Line between London Paddington, Didcot, Newbury and Oxford, (November 2010); • North West Electrification Project from Liverpool to Manchester, Bolton, Wigan, Preston and Blackpool North (November 2010); • Great Western Main Line between Cardiff and Didcot (March 2011); • Trans Pennine route between York and Manchester via Leeds and Huddersfield (December 2011). There is a wide range of potential benefits that could be delivered from electrification including lower operating costs compared with diesel operation, higher performance and rolling stock reliability, plus improved journey quality. These benefits will form part of a future business case for electrifying the Calder Valley Line.

5.2 Phased Implementation Electrification of the Calder Valley Line could be delivered in several phases, as described below: • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED]

5.3 Assessment of the Benefits and Costs There are several impacts resulting from rail electrification which are considered below: • Demand: based on guidance presented in the Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook, demand could be increased by around 9% in response to the likely reduction in journey times; • Cost savings: Electric units generate significant cost savings compared with diesels, with information in the Network Rail RUS estimating operating costs could be reduced by [REDACTED]. Analysis by Arup indicating a range of cost savings from [REDACTED], depending on the rolling stock type. • Capital costs: Network Rail capital costs have been used as a proxy for electrifying the Calder Valley Line (£[REDACTED] per double track kilometre), equating to about £[REDACTED].

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A more detailed description of the underlying methodology is presented in Appendix A1.

5.4 Appraisal Results and Chapter Conclusions [REDACTED] Details of the discounted benefits and costs associated with each timetable option are presented in Appendix A1.3-A1.5.

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6 Conclusions and Recommendations

6.1 Main Conclusions This study has used earlier project work for the Calder Valley Line as a starting point to update some of the previous analysis. This reflects the latest policy framework, including the Northern Hub and various electrification schemes across Northern England. • Timetable Options • Arup has prepared a number of timetable specifications collaboratively with stakeholders which try to address some of the weaknesses currently affecting the route, whilst supporting wider strategic objectives including economic growth, social inclusion and environmental sustainability; • There is broad stakeholder support for Option 3, [REDACTED]; • An extra [REDACTED] units would be required to support the revised timetable. • Calder Valley Line services east of Leeds will need to be modified in response to the recent funding commitment for electrification between Leeds and York. [REDACTED]; • Service extensions west of Manchester were considered. [REDACTED]; • Infrastructure Requirements • The proposed Todmorden Curve (single track) already has committed funding. This will allow [REDACTED] between East Lancashire and Manchester; • Several infrastructure schemes are required to support the proposed timetable, including [REDACTED]; • Rolling Stock Options • There is a requirement to address the poor rolling stock quality in parallel with the proposed timetable improvements; • Whilst the [REDACTED] units offer a number of positive characteristics in terms of acceleration, capacity and passenger quality, the significantly higher operating costs compared with the current units makes them unaffordable; • [REDACTED] have lower operating costs compared with the [REDACTED] and therefore may be more suitable for the Calder Valley, particularly for the commuter services. However, there are a number of dependencies affecting the procurement of these units (rolling stock cascades related to electrification), whilst the higher operating costs will require higher subsidy; • The refurbished [REDACTED] units could represent the most suitable short term solution. These units incur lower operating costs compared with other types of unit which would be consistent with the conclusions from the McNulty Review to minimise subsidy. The estimated refurbishment costs are about £[REDACTED] per 2-car unit based on similar schemes,

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which would equate to around £[REDACTED] of investment if all units deployed on the Calder Valley Line were refurbished; • Impact on Demand and the Business Case • The timetable impacts have been modelled using MOIRA, and these outputs have been incorporated into the appraisal template to prepare a business case. Flows that could benefit from transformational journey time improvements have been uplifted to reflect the additional demand; • The ‘Preferred’ timetable could attract an additional [REDACTED] passengers per year and an extra £[REDACTED] revenue; • The new timetable options offer potential for new [REDACTED] journey opportunities, including direct services to [REDACTED]. MOIRA under- estimates the potential demand for these journeys, but analysis of other comparable routes (Stalybridge to Manchester Piccadilly) suggests about [REDACTED] of the passengers could be making through journeys; • The ‘Preferred’ timetable generates a BCR of [REDACTED] with the sensitivity based on the ‘conventional’ elasticity generating a BCR of [REDACTED]; • Separate appraisal work conducted for the Todmorden Curve scheme indicates an additional [REDACTED] journeys per year will be generated with [REDACTED] of these journeys being new to the rail network. Burnley Borough Council has prepared their own business case, which indicated the benefit cost ratio was [REDACTED]; • Electrification of the Calder Valley Line • The potential benefits and costs associated with electrifying the Calder Valley Line have been considered. The route could be electrified in phases, so the incremental benefits and costs have been collated to determine if any sections would generate a robust economic case; • [REDACTED]

6.2 Recommendations • Develop a more detailed timetable specification for the Calder Valley Line in conjunction with Network Rail and the wider rail industry; • Develop a business case for refurbishing the [REDACTED] units to improve service quality; • Devise an implementation programme in partnership with industry stakeholders to deliver the various infrastructure schemes which are aligned with the wider timetable for renewals; • Prepare a lobbying and stakeholder engagement strategy to raise the profile of the Calder Valley Line to wider decision makers including the DfT to help inform the Northern franchise; • [REDACTED]

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A1 Rail Electrification

A1.1 Introduction Less than 40% of Britain's rail network is currently electrified. This represents a much lower proportion than comparable European systems. For example, around 70% of the Dutch network is electrified. Furthermore, some UK diesel services operate ‘under the wires’ for all or part of their journey, due to the incomplete network coverage. There have been several announcements indicating the level of support from the Government for electrification has significantly increased: • Great Western Main Line between London Paddington, Didcot, Newbury and Oxford, (November 2010); • North West Electrification Project from Liverpool to Manchester, Bolton, Wigan, Preston and Blackpool North (November 2010); • Great Western Main Line between Cardiff and Didcot (March 2011); • Trans Pennine route between York and Manchester via Leeds and Huddersfield (December 2011). There is a wide range of potential benefits that could be delivered from electrification, and some of these impacts are considered below. The benefits from electrification include lower operating costs compared with diesel operation, higher performance and rolling stock reliability, and improved journey quality for passengers resulting from the rolling stock cascades. These benefits will form part of a future business case for electrifying the Calder Valley Line.

A1.2 Potential Phasing Scenarios Electrification could be delivered in several potential phases: • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED].

A1.3 Demand, Operating and Capital Costs Section 5.3 estimates the likely change in demand that would result from electric traction, along with the potential cost savings that could be realised and the capital costs.

A1.3.1 Change in Demand The Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook (v5) presents the impact of five electrification projects on patronage. Demand rises as a result of electrification due to faster journey times. The information in Table 5.1 summarises observed data to understand the likely change. This implies a 10% increase in speed would achieve a 7-13% increase in demand. An average value of 9% has been assumed.

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Table A1.1: Impact of Electrification on Demand and Revenue

Change in Change in Impact of a 10% increase Demand Generalised Speed in speed on demand

Great Northern outer services +40% +30% +13%

Great Northern inner services +17% +22% +8%

Midland suburban services +26% +32% +8%

Tunbridge Wells and High +17% +17% +10% Brooms

Hasting line stations +8% +11% +7%

Source: Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook (v5) A journey time saving of [REDACTED] minute per station stop has been assumed, to reflect the superior performance offered by electric units compared with diesel trains. The potential journey time savings have been calculated, and an elasticity of -0.9 has been applied to the percentage change in generalised journey time to estimate the change in demand (a 9% increase in demand resulting from the 10% reduction in speeds).

A1.3.2 Operating Costs Savings The introduction of electric rolling stock instead of diesel units will deliver operational cost savings. This is the largest individual benefit as operating costs will be significantly lower if electric stock is introduced. The main contributory factors have been set out below, with information taken from the Network Rail Electrification Route Utilisation Strategy (RUS) supplemented by work undertaken by Arup for the Welsh Assembly Government: • Rolling stock lease/purchase costs: electric trains are less expensive to lease than diesel trains. This derives from a combination of lower capital costs and longer commercial life. Typically the leasing cost of an electric vehicle would be approximately [REDACTED] per annum less than a comparable diesel unit; • Rolling Stock Maintenance costs: electric vehicles are less expensive to maintain with the cost per vehicle mile approximately [REDACTED] less for electric trains than their diesel equivalents; • Fleet availability: electric trains are more reliable and therefore have higher fleet availability. The fleet availability for electric units is around [REDACTED] higher than diesel units ([REDACTED] compared with [REDACTED], so fewer electric units are required to be held as spares; • Reduction in infrastructure operating costs (and track access charges): electric trains are lighter than their diesel equivalents, so this reduces the amount of track related wear and tear. However, these benefits are partially

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offset by the ongoing infrastructure maintenance costs associated with the overhead equipment; • Energy costs: fuel costs are less for electric vehicles than diesels. Whilst the costs of diesel and electricity have a wide variation, electric units are cheaper and this reinforced by the lighter weight electric units. The potential operating cost savings have been calculated for the Calder Valley Line using information in the Network Rail Electrification Route Utilisation Strategy. This illustrates potential operating cost savings of [REDACTED] could be achieved which is based on an average value for a range of rolling stock types. In addition, we have reviewed outputs from other Arup project work (Valley Lines Business Case submitted to the Welsh Assembly Government), the potential annual operating cost savings for an electric unit versus a diesel has been calculated. These assumptions have been indexed to maintain the commercial confidentiality of this data. The annual operating costs are summarised in Table A1.2 based on a total of [REDACTED] miles per annum. Table A1.2: Comparison of Operating Costs

Typical Annual Operating Short Distance Long Distance (Inter-Urban Costs (£) (Commuter Services) Services)

Cascaded Diesel Vehicle [REDACTED] [REDACTED]

Cascaded Electric Vehicle [REDACTED] [REDACTED]

Annual Operating Cost [REDACTED] [REDACTED] Reduction per vehicle

Source: Arup analysis The potential savings of [REDACTED] derived from other Arup project work are broadly consistent with the analysis presented by Network Rail in the Electrification RUS. A [REDACTED] saving in operating costs has been incorporated into the business case for electrification.

A1.4 Capital Costs We have consulted with Network Rail to understand the likely electrification costs. Although a range of costs is presented in the Electrification RUS, the latest data ranges from £[REDACTED] to £[REDACTED] per single track kilometre. The contributory factors include: • requirement for new grid supply points; • the number of structures including tunnels and over-bridges which need to be rebuilt or modified; • requirement to immunise the signalling system; • additional possession costs; • line curvature; • requirement for planning consents.

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The Calder Valley Line has a number of tunnels and structures, so the electrification costs is likely to be at the higher end of the range. We have also reviewed the estimated electrification costs for the Manchester to York scheme to produce an alternative assumption. This analysis produces a cost of £[REDACTED] per single track km (£[REDACTED] per double track km) and is within the range provided by Network Rail. Based on the cost per kilometre for the North TransPennine corridor between Manchester and York via Huddersfield, the capital costs for the Calder Valley Line are: • Rochdale to Manchester: Route length is 16.6 km, so capital costs are about £[REDACTED]; • Halifax to Leeds: 28.6 km, so capital costs are £[REDACTED]; • Rochdale to Halifax: 35.5 km, so capital costs are £[REDACTED]; • Mirfield to Sowerby Bridge: 16.4 km, so capital costs are £[REDACTED]; • Todmorden to Preston: 51.6 km, so capital costs are £[REDACTED]; • Wakefield Westgate to Ravensthorpe: 13.5 km, so capital costs are £[REDACTED]; The total costs of the Calder Valley Line are in the region of £[REDACTED].

A1.5 Cost Benefit Analysis An appraisal has been conducted to assess the economic case for electrification. This appraisal has been conducted for both the base and the preferred option timetable. The business case review has been sub-divided into the individual segments of the network set out above. The benefits of the scheme are dependent on the number of services that could transfer to electric traction, for example Manchester to Leeds services could only transfer to electric traction if the first two sections are implemented (this assumes Rochdale to Manchester would be electrified using funding from the Northern Hub). The appraisal has been conducted incrementally with services added into the appraisal as it becomes possible for them to convert to electric traction. Table A1.3 shows the results of the economic appraisal for the current timetable, with benefits and costs calculated incrementally as the coverage of the electrified network increases, with the BCRs presented building on the costs and benefits presented in the columns to the left. [REDACTED] The annual base operating costs for running the service are £[REDACTED] with electrification delivering a saving of £[REDACTED]. The Halifax to Leeds section does not deliver any benefits because there are no trains running exclusively between Halifax and Leeds in this scenario, which means that no services will be able to convert to electric traction until the Halifax to Rochdale section is electrified.

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Table A1.3 Economic Appraisal of Electrification Current Timetable (Present Value, 60 year appraisal period, £ 000s) [REDACTED]

Halifax Halifax to Mirfield to Hall Royd Junction Wakefield to to Leeds Rochdale Sowerby Bridge to Preston Huddersfield Revenue Benefits Operating Cost Savings Capital Costs Net Cost to

Government Journey Time Savings Decongestion Benefits Total Benefits BCR Total Benefits incl.

WEBs Revised BCR

Source: Arup analysis * It is assumed that Manchester Victoria to Rochdale will be electrified with funding from the Northern Hub. [REDACTED] Table A1.4 Economic Appraisal of Electrification Preferred Timetable (Present Value, 60 year appraisal period, £ 000s) [REDACTED]

Halifax Halifax to Mirfield to Hall Royd Junction to Wakefield to to Leeds Rochdale Sowerby Bridge Preston Huddersfield Revenue Benefits Operating Cost Savings Capital Costs Net Cost to Government Journey Time Savings Decongestion Benefits Total Benefits BCR Total Benefits incl.

WEBs Revised BCR

Source: Arup analysis * It is assumed that Manchester Victoria to Rochdale will be electrified with funding as part of the Northern Hub proposals. For completeness the economic appraisal is supplemented by a financial analysis to examine if any financial case exists for electrification on the line.

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Table A1.5 shows the results of the financial appraisal for the current timetable, with benefits and costs calculated incrementally. It indicates there are [REDACTED] sections of the Calder Valley Line that would generate a robust financial case for electrification based on the existing timetable. The annual base operating costs for running the service are £[REDACTED] with electrification delivering a saving of £[REDACTED] or £[REDACTED] over 60 years. Table A1.5 Financial Appraisal of Electrification Current Timetable (Present Value, 60 year appraisal period, £ 000s) [REDACTED]

Halifax Halifax to Mirfield to Hall Royd Junction Wakefield to to Leeds Rochdale Sowerby Bridge to Preston Huddersfield Revenue Benefits Operating Cost Savings Benefits Capital Costs BCR

Source: Arup analysis * It is assumed that Manchester Victoria to Rochdale will be electrified with funding from the Northern Hub. [REDACTED] sThe annual operating costs for running the preferred option are £[REDACTED] with electrification delivering a saving of £[REDACTED]m or £[REDACTED] over 60 years. Table A1.6 Financial Appraisal of Electrification Preferred Timetable (Present Value, 60 year appraisal period, £ 000s) [REDACTED]

Halifax Halifax to Mirfield to Hall Royd Junction to Wakefield to to Leeds Rochdale Sowerby Bridge Preston Huddersfield Revenue Benefits Operating Cost Savings Benefits Capital Costs BCR

Source: Arup analysis * It is assumed that Manchester Victoria to Rochdale will be electrified with funding as part of the Northern Hub proposals.

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