West Yorkshire PTE, Transport for Greater Manchester, Bradford Council, Calderdale Council Calder Valley Line Enhancement Strategy ISSUE Report121525-53 Issue | 30 March 2012 Ove Arup & Partners Ltd This report takes into account the particular Admiral House instructions and requirements of our client. Rose Wharf It is not intended for and should not be relied 78 East Street upon by any third party and no responsibility is Leeds undertaken to any third party. LS9 8EE United Kingdom arup.com Job number Report121525-53 West Yorkshire PTE, Transport for Greater Manchester, Bradford Calder Valley Line Enhancement Strategy Council, Calderdale Council ISSUE Contents Page Executive Summary i 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Context for the Study 1 1.2 Objectives for the Study 2 1.3 Structure of the Report 3 2 Timetable Options 4 2.1 Previous Proposals 4 2.2 Stakeholder Feedback and Network Changes 5 2.3 Calder Valley Line Timetable Options 5 2.4 Services to Burnley 8 2.5 Huddersfield to Halifax Links 8 2.6 Route Choice for the Blackpool North Trains 9 2.7 Timetable Options East of Leeds 9 2.8 Timetable Options West of Manchester 9 2.9 Other Considerations - Open Access Operators 11 2.10 Infrastructure Requirements 12 2.11 Conclusions 12 3 Rolling Stock Options 14 3.1 Introduction 14 3.2 Review of Diesel Rolling Stock Options 14 3.3 Rolling Stock Strategy 17 3.4 Unit Requirements 17 3.5 Future Electric Rolling Stock 18 3.6 Conclusions 19 4 Business Case Appraisal 20 4.1 Demand and Revenue Modelling 20 4.2 Demand and Revenue From Burnley 22 4.3 Demand and Revenue From Low Moor 23 4.4 Revenue Impacts from the Northern Hub 23 4.5 Summary of the Demand Forecasts 25 4.6 Economic Appraisal 25 4.7 Societal Benefits 27 4.8 Journey Time Benefits 27 4.9 Rolling Stock Refurbishment 27 4.10 Wider Economic Impacts 27 Report121525-53 | Issue | 30 March 2012 1 N:\CONSULTING\TRANSPORT PLANNING\ADMIN\CALDER VALLEY\CALDER VALLEY LINE ENHANCEMENT STRATEGY_REDACTED AIG.DOCX West Yorkshire PTE, Transport for Greater Manchester, Bradford Calder Valley Line Enhancement Strategy Council, Calderdale Council ISSUE 4.11 Operating Costs 28 4.12 Capital Costs 28 4.13 Summary of Financial and Economic Appraisal 29 4.14 Business Case for Todmorden Curve 30 4.15 Rolling Stock Sensitivity Test 30 4.16 Conclusions 31 5 Impact of Potential Electrification 32 5.1 Introduction 32 5.2 Phased Implementation 32 5.3 Assessment of the Benefits and Costs 32 5.4 Appraisal Results and Chapter Conclusions 33 6 Conclusions and Recommendations 34 6.1 Main Conclusions 34 6.2 Recommendations 35 Report121525-53 | Issue | 30 March 2012 2 N:\CONSULTING\TRANSPORT PLANNING\ADMIN\CALDER VALLEY\CALDER VALLEY LINE ENHANCEMENT STRATEGY_REDACTED AIG.DOCX West Yorkshire PTE, Transport for Greater Manchester, Bradford Calder Valley Line Enhancement Strategy Council, Calderdale Council ISSUE Executive Summary Objectives for the Calder Valley Line This report examines future timetable options for the Calder Valley Line and the estimated benefits that could be realised through improvements to the services and infrastructure, progressing the studies previously completed for stakeholders served by the route. With a clear emphasis on affordability, it proposes some updated timetable options which support stakeholder objectives more effectively, as well as taking account of other issues including the Northern Hub and various electrification projects proposed for the north of England. The Calder Valley Line links Leeds with Manchester via Bradford, Halifax and Rochdale, plus several intermediate towns in the Upper Calder Valley, as well as providing a link between York and Blackpool North and Huddersfield via Brighouse. Supporting economic growth was identified as a high priority for the route, given the employment and housing growth envisaged. The main objectives for improving the Calder Valley line include: • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED]; • A range of complementary solutions including enhancing service quality and access to the network including better walking, cycling and bus access, plus additional car parking provision; • Aligning development, land use and wider transport plans to make best use of the railway and strengthen rail demand. Timetable Options (Phase 1) Several timetable options were examined and discussed with stakeholders including local authorities, Northern Rail and Network Rail. The main features of this timetable option compared with the current service include: • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED]; • [REDACTED]. The figure illustrates the standard hourly service pattern for the ‘Preferred’ option, with an extra [REDACTED] units required to operate this timetable. Report | | Page i N:\CONSULTING\TRANSPORT PLANNING\ADMIN\CALDER VALLEY\CALDER VALLEY LINE ENHANCEMENT STRATEGY_REDACTED AIG.DOCX West Yorkshire PTE, Transport for Greater Manchester, Bradford Calder Valley Line Enhancement Strategy Council, Calderdale Council ISSUE Figure: Standard Hourly Service Pattern for the ‘Preferred’ Option [REDACTED] Alternative timetable options for extending Calder Valley Line services east of Leeds [REDACTED] Committed funding has been secured for the Todmorden Curve which will allow 1tph between East Lancashire and Manchester via Todmorden. This service has been integrated into the proposals wider Calder Valley Line timetable. The proposals described above will need more detailed timetable development, taking into account the Northern Hub and the proposed electrification schemes The Northern Hub scheme creates the opportunity for a number of new destinations that could potentially be served by Calder Valley Lines trains to the west of Manchester [REDACTED]. Rolling Stock Strategy (Phase 2) The service quality of existing rolling stock units is poor, so alternative solutions should be considered to complement the timetable changes. The [REDACTED] could be cascaded from the Huddersfield Line (Manchester Piccadilly to Leeds via Huddersfield) following electrification and these would offer several potential advantages compared with the existing fleet in terms of internal comfort, acceleration and alternative door configuration to help minimise overall dwell times. However, the operating costs for these units are likely to be very expensive. In the longer term, the introduction of [REDACTED] may be more appropriate, particularly for the commuter services. Deployment of these units on the Calder Valley Line will be dependent on the completion of electrification schemes and stakeholders making the case for additional subsidy to reflect the higher operating costs. Generating additional revenue from the enhanced timetable will be a useful indicator to help demonstrate the potential of the route. A programme of refurbishments for the existing [REDACTED] might represent the most suitable short term solution. The lower operating costs for [REDACTED] compared with other types of high quality diesel unit would be consistent with the principles of the McNulty Review to minimise subsidy requirements. The estimated refurbishment costs are about [REDACTED] based on similar schemes, which would equate to around £[REDACTED] of investment if all units deployed on the Calder Valley Line were to be refurbished. Stakeholders will need to lobby for the inclusion of these improvements to be delivered as part of the forthcoming Northern franchise. Infrastructure Requirements (Phase 3) Several infrastructure schemes are required to support these service options including capacity improvements at Bradford Interchange and Leeds and signalling renewals along the line. Indicative capital costs for the infrastructure works range from £[REDACTED] to £[REDACTED]m. The capacity improvements at Leeds station would have benefits for other services which have not been fully assessed in this appraisal. It will be important to ensure these enhancements are carefully aligned with the wider programme of renewals to maximise cost efficiencies. Report | | Page ii N:\CONSULTING\TRANSPORT PLANNING\ADMIN\CALDER VALLEY\CALDER VALLEY LINE ENHANCEMENT STRATEGY_REDACTED AIG.DOCX West Yorkshire PTE, Transport for Greater Manchester, Bradford Calder Valley Line Enhancement Strategy Council, Calderdale Council ISSUE Outline Business Case As stated previously, ‘affordability’ considerations have been used to underpin the approach to this study. An outline business case has been prepared using outputs from MOIRA to appraise the impacts of timetable changes. Flows expected to benefit from significant changes in journey time changes have been uplifted to reflect the transformational impacts. The best performing timetable specification would generate an additional [REDACTED] trips per annum, plus an extra £[REDACTED] revenue. Separate appraisal work conducted for the Todmorden Curve scheme indicates an additional [REDACTED] journeys per year will be generated from that scheme with [REDACTED] of these journeys being new to the rail network. The new timetable options would offer the potential for a number of new cross Manchester journey opportunities. About [REDACTED] of passengers using other [REDACTED] routes ([REDACTED]) have a destination beyond Manchester city centre. Extension of Calder Valley Line services to [REDACTED] could generate additional rail revenue. Trains to these destinations would offer cross-Manchester journey opportunities, consistent with the overall objectives of the Northern Hub. The outline business case is based on the ‘Preferred’ timetable option and offers [REDACTED] value for money with