Planning for a Future Climate on the Salt and Verde River
James Walter SRP Surface Water Resources WESTCAS Annual Conference June 20th, 2018 Outline
• SRP and the Reservoir System • Hydro-climatology of the Watershed • Recent Climate Change Projections • Uncertainties Salt River Project SRP Agricultural Salt River Valley Water Improvement and Users Association Power District
• Established 1903 • Established 1937 as a • A Federal reclamation political subdivision project of the state of Arizona • A private corporation • 1,000,000 customers in and around the • Delivers almost 1 million Phoenix metro area acre-feet per year SRP’s Water Service Area
13,000 Sq. Mile Project Watershed
Flagstaff
Payson Prescott
Phoenix River
Peoria Glendale Tolleson Scottsdale Phoenix Mesa Avondale Tucson Tempe Gilbert Chandler Salt and Verde Watersheds SRP’s Reservoirs
Roosevelt Dam C.C. Cragin East Clear Creek Storage: 2218’ Top of Safety of Dams Dam 15,000 AF 2151’ Top of Conservation 6720’ 6720’ -
Horseshoe C.C. Cragin 2100’ - 15,000 AF Roosevelt Lake Dam Horse Mesa 1,631,532 AF 2026’ Dam Horseshoe - 2000’ 1914’ 109,217 AF Bartlett 1891’ - Apache Lake Dam 245,138 AF 1798’ Mormon Flat Dam Bartlett - 1748’ Stewart 178,186 AF Mountain 1660.5’ Dam 1610.5’ - Verde River 1529’ Storage: Canyon Lake 287,403 AF 1506’ - 57,852 AF
VERDE CONSERVATION Saguaro Lake SALT CONSERVATION STORAGE: STORAGE: 69,765 AF 2,004,287 AF 302,403 AF
Total Conservation Storage: 2,306,690 AF SRP’s Delivery System Salt and Verde Normals (1981-2010)
Monsoon Rain/Snow Rain Climate Variability Salt-Tonto-Verde SWE above 7,000’
16
12
Inches 8
4
0 Climate Variability Climate Variability Climate Change - Summer
Luong et al. 2017 Climate Change - Summer
Pascale et al. 2017 Climate Change - Winter
Seager and Vecchi 2010 Climate Change - Winter
Woodhouse et al. 2016 Climate Change – Winter (AR’s)
Lu et al 2018 Climate Change – Winter (AR’s)
Singh et al. (in review) Climate Change – Uncertainties
Vano et al. 2014 Climate Change – Uncertainties
Mearns et al. 2009 Climate Change – Uncertainties Climate Change – Uncertainties Climate Change – Uncertainties
Verde River Mean Accumulating Daily Inflow Climate Change – Uncertainties Questions
Streamflow Projection
System Health RPM • Inflow • Local (ungauged inflow) • Reservoir Operations • Deliveries • Groundwater • Reservoir/River Losses Running the RPM • Monthly time-step • Can run through GUI • Batch run • SRP Python script used to batch inflows into dss • Hydrologics executable for batch run • 64 runs takes less than 10 minutes RPM Output • Detailed output for storage, demands, deliveries, exchanges, losses, spills, etc. • Variety of standard reports and graphs • Ad hoc reports and graphs • Calculates various statistics about output data Examples of RPM Output Purpose of the RPM • Current and future shortages • Average surface water supply • Future groundwater supply • Effect of physical changes to reservoirs (i.e. increased conservation storage) • Effects of operational changes to reservoirs • Changes in demands • Changes in exchanges and transfers • Sedimentation effects Benefits from high resolution dynamically downscaling