Center for Security Studies (Css)

CENTER FOR SECURITY STUDIES (CSS)

ANNUAL REPORT 2017

CSS ETH Zurich Publisher Andreas Wenger Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich Editor Daniel Frey Translation and editing Christopher Findlay Layout Rosa Guggenheim Photo credits Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich Print Staffel Medien AG, Zurich PREFACE

Shifts in the global power structure continued unabated in the year 2017. The US withdrawal, as announced by the Trump administration, has been mainly a selective affair so far, as manifested in the Trans- Pacific Partnership (TTP) or the Paris Agreement. The resulting vacuum has been occupied by other powers, primarily China. How- ever, Xi Jinping has so far failed to follow up on his announcements regarding free trade, and has focused on infrastructure projects such as the “One Belt One Road”-trade route or construction of bases in the South China Sea. Russia for its part has concentrated its efforts to exert influence as a superpower in the Middle East, where Bashir al-Assad was able to consolidate his position in Syria decisively with the active military support of Russia. However, this has hardly improved the stability or future outlook of the region, which has also suffered from the antago- nism between regional powers Iran and Saudi Arabia. The Center for Security Studies monitors and analyzes these development on Switzerland’s near and distant periphery in terms of their impact on Switzerland. The annual study Security looks at how global affairs affect the perceived security of the Swiss public over time. Select topics are investigated as part of the CSS Analysis series and made available to the general public. A broad range of topics was again covered last year, ranging from the OSCE and jihadist return- ees to the security concept at Zurich Airport. The Bulletin on Swiss Security Policy also looked at violent extremism in Switzerland from the perspective of Muslim organizations. Furthermore, the Bulletin features an interview with Federal Coun- cilor Guy Parmelin, the head of the Federal Department of Defence, Civil Protection and Sport (DDPS), as well as sections on Swiss extremism prevention measures in Tunisia, organized crime as an obstacle to development cooperation, and Switzerland’s health foreign policy. One of the highlights of the past year was the visit of Federal Coun- cilor Parmelin to ETH Zurich on 23 October 2017, when he followed up on his talks with representatives of the university and various institutes by delivering a public keynote address on Switzerland’s security policy. The present annual report aims to give an overview of our activities and to stimulate an interest in reading some of our other publications, all of which are available for free to download from our website at www.css.ethz.ch.

Prof. Dr. Andreas Wenger Director, Center for Security Studies 1 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Research 4 1.1 CSS Studies in Security and International Relations 6 1.2 Selected Publications 7 1.3 Selected Conferences 11

2 Education 12 2.1 BA ETH Public Policy 12 2.2 DAS ETH in Military Sciences 13 2.3 Master of Arts in Comparative and International Studies (MACIS) 13 2.4 Master of Science in Science, Technology and Policy (STP) 14 2.5 Seminar: Dual Use Research of Concern (Critical Thinking Initiative) 14 2.6 PhD Program of the Center for Comparative and International Studies (CIS) 15 2.7 Master of Advanced Studies ETH Mediation in Peace Processes 16 2.8 NADEL Zentrum für Entwicklung und Zusammenarbeit 16

3 Think Tank 17 3.1 Publications on Swiss Foreign and Security Policy 17 3.2 Discussion platforms 24 3.3 Policy Consulting 29 3.4 Transatlantic Post-Doc Fellowship for International Relations and Security (TAPIR) 40

4 The Center for Security Studies (CSS) 41

3 1 RESEARCH

Research Activities 2017 Research at the CSS focuses on changing threats to states and their In 2017, CSS research activities comprised societies as well as the ways in which important actors organize in 37 research projects. order to face up to these threats. The research follows a broad interdisciplinary approach and focuses on six main research areas.

Nuclear (weapons) policy We study the theoretical and historical aspects of nuclear arms proliferation and non-proliferation, in particular the role of institutions and regimes within the global nuclear order. Our aim is to reveal the incentives and obstacles to nuclear proliferation as a basis for developing complex analyses of states’ (non-)proliferation choices.

Post-conflict studies We examine the conditions required for sustainable peace follwing armed conflicts. Adopting a holistic approach, we not only focus on the resurgence of political violence, but also discuss systemic violence in society.

Security institutions We investigate the causes and patterns of changes in security institutions over time. We look at the resulting policies and the way they affect national security. We analyze various concepts of global order and seek out patterns of cooperation between various security actors, including individual states, the UN, the EU, and NATO as well as regional and global security communities.

Security technologies We study the development and deployment of civilian and military technologies in the security sector. We try to determine the decisions driving their development and the political and social effects of their use. We also look at arms control efforts.

Cybersecurity We examine how cyber-incidents influence or even transform political discourse by facilitating certain (political) measures. Specifically, we are interested in the way knowledge about such incidents is generated, how it changes, who has what role in the process, and how this knowledge is used or deployed in the political sphere.

4 Urban security We study issues of personal security and interpersonal violence in urban spaces. Rapid urbanization, especially in the Global South, has accentuated problems of economic inequality and social discrimina- tion and contributed to high rates of violence. As part of our work within the Institute for Science, Technology and Policy (ISTP), we work with researchers from various disciplines on finding solutions for urban security problems.

5 1.1 CSS STUDIES IN SECURITY AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

The CSS Studies in Security and International Relations focus on historical and current security policy issues. Adopting a broad concept of security, the series aims to be a forum for innovative research. The authors of the studies include scientific staff from the CSS as well as scientists from associated partner institutes.

Roland Popp, Liviu Horovitz, Andreas Wenger (eds.) Negotiating the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Origins of the Nuclear Order 2016 Wilhelm Mirow Strategic Culture, Securitisation and the Use of Force Post-9/11 Security Practices of Liberal Democracies 2016 Aglaya Snetkov Russia’s Security Policy under Putin: A Critical Perspective 2015 Thierry Tardy, Marco Wyss Peacekeeping in Africa: The Evolving Security Architecture 2014 Ursula Jasper The Politics of Nuclear Non-Proliferation: A Pragmatist Framework for Analysis 2013 Stephen Aris, Andreas Wenger Regional Organizations and Security: Conceptions and Practices 2013 Patrick Müller EU Foreign Policymaking and the Middle East Conflict: The Europeanization of National Foreign Policy 2011 Victor Mauer, Daniel Möckli European-American Relations and the Middle East: From Suez to Iraq 2010 Robert W. Orttung, Jeronim Perovic, Andreas Wenger Russian Energy Power and Foreign Relations: Implications for Conflict and Cooperation 2009 6 Vojtech Mastny, Christian Nünlist, Andreas Wenger Origins of the European Security System: The Helsinki Process Revisited, 1965 – 75 2008 Myriam Dunn Cavelty Cyber-Security and Threat Politics: US Efforts to Secure the Information Age 2007 Myriam Dunn, Kristian Søby Kristensen Securing «the Homeland»: Critical Infrastructure, Risk and (In)Security 2007 Cornelius Friesendorf US Foreign Policy and the War on Drugs: Displacing the Cocaine and Heroin Industry 2007 Anna Locher, Christian Nünlist, Andreas Wenger Transforming NATO in the Cold War: Challenges beyond Deterrence in the 1960s 2006 Sven S. Holtsmark, Vojtech Mastny, Andreas Wenger War Plans and Alliances in the Cold War: Threat Perceptions in the East and West 2006

1.2 SELECTED PUBLICATIONS

The following is a selection of academic publications authored by CSS staff in 2017.

Fabien Merz, Lisa Watanabe Middle east Policy, Vol. XXiV, No. 4, WiNter 2017

Tunisia's Jihadi Problem and How to Deal with It Tunisia’s Jihadi Problem and how To deal wiTh iT In: Middle East Policy, Vol. 24, No. 4 Lisa Watanabe and Fabien Merz

Dr. Watanabe is a senior researcher and Mr. Merz is a researcher at the Wiley Online Library, 2017 Center for Security Studies (CSS) at ETH Zurich.

o this day, Tunisia remains the role in the radicalization process that can only country in the MENA region be acted upon in a systematic way. Thus To this day, Tunisia remains the only country in the MENA region that has undergone a democratic far, the Tunisian authorities have taken a transition following the popular number of measures, some of which are Tuprisings of 2010-11. Yet the transition has aimed at mitigating the impact of a number proven difficult. The young democracy of these structural-level drivers. Yet, ad- that has made a transition to democracy following the popular upris- remains plagued by a number of challeng- ditional policy responses and support from es, some of which stem from the legacy international partners are still needed if of the Ben Ali era and others that have Tunisia is to curtail jihadist radicalization emerged during the transition. Against this and safeguard the country’s democratic backdrop, the country has been confronted achievements. Indeed, given the conflicts ings of 2010 – 11. However, the transition has proven difficult, as the with the resurgence of Salafi currents, as in Libya, Mali, Syria and Iraq, this is now well as with the phenomenon of jihadist more important than ever. radicalization. Today, Tunisia is, per capita and in absolute numbers, one of the big- JIHADI SALAFISM country is currently struggling to address jihadist radicalization and gest exporters of jihadist foreign fighters Jihadi Salafism in Tunisia is not a new in the world. Fatalities in Tunisia from phenomenon. Dissatisfaction with En- jihadist violence have skyrocketed since nahda’s precursor in the late 1980s, the the uprising, with attacks in 2015 on the Mouvement de la Tendence Islamique terrorism. In response, this article identifies structural factors driving Bardo Museum in Tunis and on a resort in (MTI),1 as well as Ben Ali’s repression Sousse having captured international atten- of Islamists in the 1990s and 2000s, had tion. These trends not only pose a threat to already led some Tunisians to embrace the stability of the country, they also fuel violent jihad.2 That said, the country has radicalization in Tunisia as well as different measures the fledgling and prolong conflicts in the wider region, witnessed the growth of jihadi Salafism ultimately also posing a threat to Europe since the uprising. and the wider West. Not all Salafis are jihadi. Salafism gen- Tunisia is currently struggling to ad- erally refers to a reform movement within democracy should adopt to address this challenge more effectively. dress jihadist radicalization and terrorism. Sunni Islam, whose modern-day adherents While individual pathways leading to radi- seek to emulate the pious practices of the calization may differ, it is possible to iden- first three generations of Muslims who fol- tify common structural factors that play a lowed the Prophet Mohammed.3 Within the © 2017, The Authors Middle East Policy © 2017, Middle East Policy Council 136

Watanabe and Merz.indd 136 11/20/17 8:28 PM

7 Matthias Leese Standardizing Security: The Business Case Politics of Borders In: Mobilities (online first) Taylor & Francis online, 2017 This paper discusses the role of standards and standardization in the regulation of security and mobility through the EU’s Programming Mandate M/487 and biometric Automated Border Control (ABC) systems. It argues that the choice of facial recognition as the stan- dard biometric modality was largely path-dependent based on existing infrastructures, and that the restructuring of EU external borders in the case of ABC was subject to more than just political arguments. Indeed, standardization here followed business case considerations, which led to a preference for facial recognition over technically more powerful alternative options.

Enzo Nussio Ex-Combatants and Violence: Are Yesterday’s Villains Today’s Principal Threat? In: Third World Thematics (online first), Special Issue: War economies and post-war crime Taylor & Francis online, 2017 Through in-depth interviews and surveys, this paper reviews the threat posed by ex-combatants in Colombia. It contends that despite the portrayal of ex-combatants as a security threat, the evidence from Colombia shows that these individuals are not destined for a life of violence as they become less interested in risk-taking activities over time. The article also addresses common concerns about the involve- ment of ex-combatants in post-conflict violence by highlighting 1) how rank-and-file members of remobilized organizations often con- sist of new generations of recruits; and 2) that the participation of ex-combatants in violence is too small to have an impact on overall criminal dynamics.

SIRIUS 2017; 1(2): 109–115 John Thompson Jack Thompson* Den Trumpismus verstehen: Die Außenpolitik des neuen amerikanischen Präsidenten Den Trumpismus verstehen: Die Außenpolitik des neuen

DOI 10.1515/sirius-2017-0026 hat (wenn auch nicht konsequent) die Bedeutung der Kurzfassung: Der Artikel fragt nach den außenpolitischen North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) und von Bündnissen mit Japan und Südkorea heruntergespielt. amerikanischen Präsidenten Prioritäten der Trump-Administration. Er gelangt zu dem Ergebnis, dass der neue US-Präsident keine strategische Auch die liberale Weltordnung hat er scharf kritisiert. Leitvision hat, abgesehen von der vagen Überzeugung, Nach Ansicht Trumps ist das Netzwerk von Sicherheits- dass die liberale Weltordnung den Vereinigten Staaten bündnissen, Freihandelsabkommen und internationalen nicht nütze. Im Zentrum des Trumpismus steht vielmehr Organisationen, das die Vereinigten Staaten seit Beginn In: Sirius, Vol. 1, No. 2 das Bemühen, die Unterstützung der politischen Basis des der Epoche des Kalten Kriegs aufbauten, gut für andere Präsidenten zu erhalten, die mit der Richtung, in die sich Länder und für Mitglieder der globalistischen Elite, das Land entwickelt hat, unzufrieden ist. Dazu bedarf es schlecht dagegen für viele Amerikaner – insbesondere primär einer Botschaft aus strammem Nationalismus, amerikanische Arbeiter. Insgesamt aber sind die historischen Parallelen von De Gruyter, Berlin, 2017 Anti-Elitismus und Globalisierungskritik. Das scheint zu funktionieren. „Amerika zuerst“ eher irreführend als erhellend. Das hängt damit zusammen, dass ungeachtet aller oberfläch- Schlüsselwörter: USA, Donald Trump, Außenpolitik, lichen Ähnlichkeiten mit den dreißiger und frühen vier- liberale Weltordnung ziger Jahren die Rahmenbedingungen von Trumps Amts- zeit ganz andere sind. Die Vereinigten Staaten sind keine Abstract: This article looks at the foreign policy priorities aufstrebende Weltmacht, die sich aufgrund ihrer geo- of the Trump Administration. It arrives at the conclusion grafischen Isolation aus den Konflikten Eurasiens he- This article argues that the president does not have a grand strategic that the president does not have a grand strategic vision, raushalten könnte, wie es Politiker glaubhaft (wenn auch aside from a vague conviction that the liberal world order nicht unbedingt zutreffend) vor dem Zweiten Weltkrieg is not benefiting the U.S. Instead, at the heart of Trumpism behaupten konnten. Vielmehr sind sie eine Supermacht, is an effort to mobilize and maintain the support of the die im Verhältnis zu aufsteigenden Mächten wie China presidentʼs political base, which is displeased with the vision, aside from a vague conviction that the liberal world order is oder wiederauflebenden Mächten wie Russland in all- direction of the country, around a message of staunch mählichem Niedergang begriffen ist. Auch Zeit und Raum nationalism, anti-elitism, and anti-globalization. It ap- sind dramatisch eingeschrumpft, sodass sich Probleme pears to be working und Bedrohungen überall auf der Welt innerhalb von Mi- Keywords: USA, Donald Trump, foreign policy, liberal nuten oder auch augenblicklich auf die Vereinigten Staa- not benefiting the US. Instead, at the heart of Trumpism is an effort world order ten auswirken können. Selbst der Mythos von der Festung Amerika lässt sich nicht länger aufrechterhalten. Auch kulturelle und ökonomische Ressentiments 1 Einleitung funktionieren in den zeitgenössischen Vereinigten Staa- to mobilize and maintain the support of the president’s political base, ten anders. Während in der Weltwirtschaftskrise der dreißiger Jahre ein Großteil der Bevölkerung massive „Amerika zuerst“ ist das Schlagwort, mit dem Donald Wohlstandsverluste erlitt – die Arbeitslosigkeit erreichte Trump selbst seine Außenpolitik beschreibt. Es erinnert 25 Prozent und blieb während der gesamten Dauer der an das Kredo einiger konservativer Nationalisten vor dem Krise zweistellig – sind diese heute begrenzter. Gewisse Kalten Krieg, die an die Vereinigten Staaten appellierten, which is displeased with the direction of the country, around a mes- Regionen und bestimmte Bevölkerungsgruppen stehen sich nicht in die Probleme Europas und Ostasiens hi- heute ökonomisch deutlich schlechter da, und die Löhne neinziehen zu lassen und sich auf ihre nationalen Inte- der meisten Amerikaner haben stagniert. Andererseits ressen zu konzentrieren. In gewisser Weise ist „Amerika haben viele Gemeinden von der Globalisierung profitiert, zuerst“ ein passendes Schlagwort für die Ziele Trumps. Er und diese hat mehr Rückhalt in der Bevölkerung, als es sage of staunch nationalism, anti-elitism, and anti-globalization. It viele Kommentatoren oftmals wahrhaben wollen. Wis- * Kontaktperson: Jack Thompson, Senior Researcher, Global Security Team, Center for Security Studies, ETH Zurich, senschaftler sind sich uneins in der Frage, in welchem E-Mail: [email protected] Ausmaß diese Wohlstandsverluste dazu beigetragen ha- appears to be working. Brought to you by | ETH-Bibliothek Zürich Authenticated Download Date | 6/16/17 10:18 AM

8 Miguel Gomez Victory in Cyberspace In: IAFOR Journal of Politics, Economics & Law, Vol. 4, No. 1 IAFOR, Nagoya, 2017 A review of state-associated incidents in cyberspace over the past decade reveals that over two thirds of these involved actors within the Asia-Pacific, often occurring in the context of politico-economic disputes. These activities, ranging from attempts at espionage to coercion, appear to confirm the region’s increasing strategic importance. But upon closer inspection, only half of these activities achieved their political objectives. Moreover, they have involved notable regional powers employing relatively unsophisticated tools and tactics in cyberspace. This challenges the prevailing notion that cyberspace provides an asymmetric advantage for middling and/or weak powers due to its low cost of entry and the increasing technological dependence of targets.

Andreas Wenger, Christian Nünlist SIPOL-B 16: Ein Bedrohungsbericht, keine neue Strategiekonzeption In: Swiss Military Power Review der Schweizer Armee, No. 1/2017 Verlag ASMZ, Volketswil, 2017 In August 2016, the Swiss Federal Council adopted a new report concerning Switzerland’s security policy. The fifth installment of this overview since 1973 focuses on a solid, detailed assessment of the situation. However, as a guideline to the strategic development of vital political instruments, the report is only of limited use. Its key conceptual innovation consists of an expanded definition of defense. The introduction of the terms ‘independence – cooperation – engagement’ contributes little to the elaboration of Switzerland’s future strategic priorities.

Martin Zapfe Deterrence from the Ground Up: Understanding NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence In: Survival, No. 3, Vol. 59 Taylor & Francis Online, London, 2017 NATO’s deterrence strategy must take into account the fundamen- tally political nature of the Russian threat. As a nuclear alliance, NATO’s deterrence is ultimately based on the threat of nuclear retali- ation. However, Russia under President Vladimir Putin seems to have rejected the established Western playbook, opting instead for ‘cross- domain coercion’. NATO’s answer since 2014 has been largely based on conventional adaptation mirroring similar evolutionary steps in the Alliance’s history. Important as these measures may be, there is a dan- ger that they will fall short of enhancing allied deterrence, and may even be harmful to it. 9 Oliver Thränert Richtiges Ziel, falscher Weg – Ein Kernwaffenverbot würde die Welt nicht sicherer machen In: Internationale Politik, No. 3/2017 DGAP, Berlin, 2017 The abolition of all nuclear weapons is a noble cause. But it is predicated on the idea of a comprehensive and permanently effective inspections system, which is still a distant prospect. Therefore, a convention to ban nuclear arms would be no substitute for the Non- Proliferation Treaty; a more productive approach would be to improve nuclear arms control.

Govinda Clayton, Tobias Böhmelt Auxiliary Force Structure: Paramilitary Forces and Pro-Government Militias In: Comparative Political Studies Sage Publications, London, 2017 When do countries employ what types of auxiliary security forces? Paramilitaries and pro-government militias (PGMs) are not part of a state's formal armed forces; and how this auxiliary force structure actually develops remains less well understood. We examine when PGMs emerge, when states invest in paramilitary forces, and when leaders rely on both types of security organizations at the same time. We argue that it requires more time and a stronger bureaucratic appa- ratus to build formal armed forces than paramilitary groups, while governments are also more accountable for their actions than in the case of PGMs.

Severin Fischer The EU’s “Energy Union”: A Challenge of Continued Expectation

1 Management CES Policy Brief June 2017

The EU’s “Energy Union”: CES Policy Brief, June 2017 A Challenge of Continued Expectation Management

Severin Fischer 2 ETH Zurich Centre for European Studies/JMEUCE, Halifax, 2017

The idea of an “Energy Union” has dominated the debate about the European Union’s energy and climate policy since the Juncker Commission took office in 2014. With this new terminology and the concept’s holistic approach, the Commission has managed to draw attention to policymaking in Brussels again. In the process of law-making, it becomes obvious, however, that not The idea of an “Energy Union” has dominated the debate about the all expectations will be fulfilled.

The European Union’s energy and climate policy has been dominated by three overarching themes over the last decade: first and foremost, by the creation of an internal energy market, exemplified by the better interconnection and increase of trade activities in the electricity and gas EU’s energy and climate policy since the Juncker Commission took sector; second, by its environmental policies, its leading role in international climate negotiations, and the transformational dynamics to its economy; and third, by its energy security policy, trying to ease an overreliance on its biggest energy supplier Russia and supporting diversification attempts. Although significant progress has been achieved in all three dimensions, office in 2014. With this new terminology and the concept’s holistic member states have started to raise critiques about an imbalance among the three dimensions, and claims to limit EU control over structuring the sector have become louder. Policy fragmentation and the discomfort of mainly Central and Eastern European countries became evident during the process of setting environmental framework targets for the period up to 2030 approach, the Commission has managed to draw attention to poli- during European Council negotiations in 2013 and 2014.

1 This policy brief is part of a series funded by the Centre for European Studies Jean Monnet European Union Centre of Excellence (JMEUCE) and the Canada-Europe Transatlantic Dialogue (CETD) at Carleton University. The cymaking in Brussels again. In the legislative process, however, it is JMEUCE is funded in part by a grant from the European Union. CETD receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC). The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of the author and in no way can be taken to reflect the views of the European Union, JMEUCE, CETD and SSHRC. 2 Dr. Severin Fischer is a Senior Researcher with the Global Security Team in the Center for Security Studies (CSS) at ETH Zurich. His research focuses on European energy policy, global energy security challenges and EU climate becoming obvious that not all expectations will be fulfilled. policy. 1

10 1.3 SELECTED CONFERENCES

Every year, the CSS presents numerous academic contributions to 2017 Scientific Presentations national and international conferences as well as organizing its own In 2017, CSS researchers gave a total of scholarly events. 86 presentations to scientific audiences.

In 2017, we did not organize a conference of our own. Instead, our staff members attended the following conferences, among others: Intelligence on the Frontier between State and Civil Society, 4th European Workshop in International Studies (EWIS), Cardiff, 7 – 10 June Schweizerische Vereinigung für Politikwissenschaft, Jahreskonferenz, Arbeitsgruppe Sicherheits- und Friedenspolitik, St. Gallen, 11 – 12 January European International Studies Association, Section on ‘Technology and IR’ Barcelona, 13 – 16 September Conflict Processes Section of American Political Science Association Conference San Francisco, 1 – 3 September Annual Conference of the Conflict Research Society Oxford University, 18 – 19 September

11 2 EDUCATION

The CSS lectures are a core part of the study programs taught at the Department of Humanities, Social and Political Sciences (D-GESS) at ETH Zurich, and the Center for Comparative and International Studies (CIS) at ETH Zurich and the University of Zurich. They cover all security policy-related topics taught at ETH Zurich.

2.1 BA ETH PUBLIC POLICY

www.berufsoffizier.ethz.ch The six-semester Bachelor’s degree BA Public Policy is aimed at pro- spective career officers of the Swiss armed forces. It comprises a curriculum of subjects of the humanities, social sciences, and political sciences, which is supplemented by didactics and lectures in military studies. The course is offered in collaboration with the Department of Humanities, Social and Political Sciences (D-GESS) of ETH Zurich and the Military Academy (MILAK) at ETH Zurich. The students are graduates of the MILAK’s BLG Bachelor degree course. The CSS offered the following courses in 2017:

Lectures: • Schweizer Aussen- & Sicherheitspolitik seit 1945 (spring semester 2017) • Weltpolitik seit 1945: Geschichte der Internationalen Beziehungen (fall semester 2017) • Aktuelle sicherheitspolitische Fragen (fall semester 2017)

Seminars: • Seminar I: Europäische Sicherheit vor der Neuausrichtung (spring semester 2017) • Seminar II: Europäische Sicherheit vor der Neuausrichtung (fall semester 2017)

Colloquium: • Bachelor-Kolloquium (fall semester 2017)

At an awards ceremony in the Auditorium Maximum on 24 February 2017, 13 graduates of the BLG13 received their federal diplomas as career officers in the Swiss armed forces.

12 2.2 DAS ETH IN MILITARY SCIENCES

The two-semester program Diploma of Advanced Studies ETH in Military Sciences (DAS MILWISS) is targeted at aspiring career officers who already hold an academic degree or a comparable higher qualification. Participation is restricted to Swiss nationals and representatives of friendly foreign armies who are simultaneously starting the diploma course at ETH Zurich (MILAK). The DAS MILWISS program is accredited at the ETH Center for Continuing Education and comprises selected military sciences subjects, which are complemented by security policy and didactics. It is offered in cooperation with the Department of Humanities, Social and Political Sciences (D-GESS) of ETH Zurich and MILAK. At the start of the 2017 fall semester, another DLG course marked the start of the fourth DAS MILWISS program. Six participants are enrolled in the DLG 16-18 course, including four Swiss, one German, and one Korean student.

2.3 MASTER OF ARTS IN COMPARATIVE AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES (MACIS)

The three-semester MACIS is a research-oriented graduate program www.cis.ethz.ch/education.html of the Center for Comparative and International Studies (CIS). The MACIS curriculum combines comparative and international political science as a way of teaching students about the complex interrelation- ships between national, international, and transnational political processes. The course devotes particular attention to methods, theory, and research-oriented work. As such, the MACIS should also be seen as a preparatory step to a doctorate. Around 20 national and international applicants are selected each year. The following events were offered by the CSS in 2017:

Seminars: • Critical Security Studies (spring semester 2017) • Introduction to Security Studies (fall semester 2017) • Political Violence (fall semester 2017) • Technology Governance and International Security (fall semester 2017)

13 2.4 MASTER OF SCIENCE IN SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND POLICY (STP)

The MSc program in Science, Technology and Policy started in September 2015. The program will equip students coming from the natural sciences and engineering curricula with skills for analyzing complex societal problems at the interface of science, technology, and policy. The CSS offered the following courses in 2017:

Seminars: • Argumentation and Science Communication (spring semester 2017)

2.5 SEMINAR: DUAL-USE RESEARCH OF CONCERN (CRITICAL THINKING INITIATIVE)

With its program on “Science in Perspective” (formerly a compulsory elective course), students at ETH Zurich can develop new perspectives on their core subjects’ issues. Within this program, in the fall semester of 2017, the CSS offered a seminar entitled “One Study, Two Paths: The Dual-Use Dilemma in the Life Sciences”, the first such course in English to be offered on the dilemma of dual-use technology in the biosciences. The seminar, listed in the syllabus under the heading of “Reflection on disciplinary methods and topics”, was rec- ommended specifically for students and PhD candidates in the biol- ogy, chemistry, and related bioscience and health science departments. Citing the latest developments in the life sciences, this seminar laid out the dual-use dilemma and its potential societal effects for 26 Bachelor and Master students, examining the topic from various angles including the natural sciences, social science, and political science. The future scientists were made aware of potential risks resulting from this research, and were able to develop and understanding of what scientists can do to minimize the potential misuse of research.

14 2.6 PHD PROGRAM OF THE CENTER FOR COMPARATIVE AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES (CIS)

The PhD program of the Center for Comparative and International www.cis.ethz.ch/Studying_CIS/ Studies (CIS) offers a research degree with emphasis on the writ- PhDCIS.html ing of a doctoral dissertation. Students attend courses in their field of specialization and fulfill coursework requirements in a tailor-made fashion to complement their previous education. In 2017, the CSS supervised the following doctoral dissertations: Jan Bouschen Reform und Veränderung in internationalen Organisationen: Der Fall der World Health Organization Liviu Horovitz Guns for Butter: The Political Economy of US Security Expansion Marco Martini A Negotiation Perspective on the Use of Threats in International Trade Disputes Sascha Langenbach Maritime Disputes and the Political Economy of Offshore Oil and Gas Investments Sophie-Charlotte Fischer From Rule-Takers to Rule-Makers? Analyzing the Role of Private Authority in the Governance of Emerging Dual-Use Technologies David Kostenwein (ISTP Doktorat) In Between Walls and Fences: How Public Spaces in Bogotá are shaped by Gated Communities Sam Lloyd (ISTP Doktorat) Urban Violence Reduction

15 2.7 MASTER OF ADVANCED STUDIES ETH MEDIATION IN PEACE PROCESSES

Since the fall semester 2017, the CSS has supported the Master of Advanced Studies ETH Mediation in Peace Processes (MAS ETH MPP) course. This program provides participants with the necessary knowledge, skills, and techniques to mediate in violent political conflicts. It is currently the only MAS program for mediation in peace processes. The MAS MPP is based on a close partnership between ETH Zurich, the Federal Department of Foreign Affairs (FDFA), and the foreign ministries of Germany, Finland, and Sweden. The program is also supported by international organizations such as the UN, the EU, and the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).

Module: • Mediation in Context: Conflict Analysis and Resolution (fall semester 2017)

2.8 NADEL ZENTRUM FÜR ENTWICKLUNG UND ZUSAMMENARBEIT

The NADEL center for development and cooperation combines empirical research in social sciences with an interdisciplinary teaching program and various policy outreach activities to contribute to effective and sustainable development policies. CSS collaborates with NADEL on the biennial course “Mediation Process Design – Supporting Dialog and Negotiation”.

16 3 THINK TANK

The think tank activities of the CSS are based on the Center’s aca- Publications 2017 demic expertise in the area of security and strategic studies. The CSS Journal contributions: 60 provides its analyses and recommendations to politicians, public Monographs, edited volumes, administrations, other research centers involved in policy consultancy, and book chapters: 30 and the general public. Reports: 16 Policy briefs: 46

3.1 PUBLICATIONS ON SWISS FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

The CSS maintains several publication series on Swiss foreign and security policy; these series are aimed at expert audiences as well as interested parties in the general public. All publications are available free of charge from our website (www.css.ethz.ch).

Christian Nünlist and Oliver Thränert (eds.) Bulletin 2017 on Swiss Security Policy Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich, 2017 The annual Bulletin zur schweizerischen Sicherheitspolitik (Bulletin BULLETIN 2017 on Swiss Security Policy) provides information on developments in ZUR SCHWEIZERISCHEN SICHERHEITSPOLITIK Swiss security policy as a contribution to public debate on security policy. It offers contributions and interviews on current issues in Swiss foreign and security policy and presents selected projects of the CSS.

Herausgeber: Christian Nünlist und Oliver Thränert The 2017 edition includes an interview with Federal Councilor Guy Serienherausgeber: Andreas Wenger Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zürich Parmelin, the head of the Federal Department of Defence, Civil Pro-

CSS tection and Sport (DDPS). For Parmelin, international terrorism is ETH Zurich “clearly the most acute and dangerous current threat” to Switzerland. Why has Switzerland not experienced any attacks yet? The Swiss defense minister think it is because the Swiss armed forces are not engaged in the Middle East fighting the Islamic State. Nevertheless, Parmelin is anything but naïve: “Switzerland is no Shangri-La”, he states in his interview. Against this background, the fact that two more contributions in this bulletin are dedicated to the topic of Preventing Violent Extremism (PVE) comes as no surprise. Darius Farman and Fabien Merz carry out groundbreaking work with their chapter on Swiss Muslims and how their community contributes to PVE. Using semi-structured interviews, Farman and Merz identify trends and dynamics as well as opportunities and problems. Lisa Watanabe’s contribution looks at PVE as one of Switzerland’s foreign-policy priorities. She looks at the spread of jihadist Salafism in Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia in recent years. According to Watanabe, Switzerland’s future measures and project focusing on PVE should 17 look specifically at the political marginalization of Tunisia’s youth and promote civic participation of young people at the local level. The other two main chapters are dedicated to long-neglected aspects of Swiss foreign and security policy. Benno Zogg’s chapter, supported by empirical studies that he conducted in Mali and Kosovo, investigates the sensitive topic of organized crime in fragile contexts as a challenge for Swiss foreign development cooperation. Under- development and organized crime are indeed two mutually reinforc- ing phenomena. Zogg argues that a code of “Do no crime” should be cultivated, in analogy to the established approach of “Do no harm”, in order to prevent corruption and crime from undermining the high- minded ideals of combating poverty and building stability. Ursula Jasper’s contribution evaluates Switzerland’s foreign health policy. When it committed itself to a target agreement in this area in 2006, Switzerland was a pioneer in the field. However, ten years after the country embarked on this course in foreign health policy, Jasper’s conclusions are sobering: The well-intentioned strategy, she argues, is marked by a series of ambiguities and discrepancies. Nevertheless, she believes that the timely linking of health policy issues with foreign policy was an important step that allowed Switzerland to collaborate meaningfully in the changing global health infrastructure.

The 2017 Bulletin includes the following articles: Interview with Federal Councilor Guy Parmelin, Head of DDPS “Der Bund sucht den gleichen Cyber-Spezialisten wie Google” Fabien Merz and Darius Farman Das Engagement muslimischer Organisationen in der Schweiz gegen gewaltbereiten Extremismus Lisa Watanabe Die Schweiz und PVE in Tunesien Benno Zogg Do No Crime: Organisiertes Verbrechen als Entwicklungs- herausforderung Ursula Jasper Die Gesundheitsaussenpolitik der Schweiz: Eine Zwischenbilanz

Also, two CSS projects are presented in detail: Simon Mason and Andreas Wenger Mediation für Profis: Der Master of Advanced Studies ETH Mediation in Peace Processes Linda Maduz and Florian Roth Städtische Sicherheit in einer sich wandelnden Risikolandschaft

With the lively participation of members of parliament and of various 18 government departments, as well as representatives of foreign states and the media, the authors of the Bulletin on Swiss Security Policy presented their results on 8 November 2017 at the Vatter Center in Berne. Swiss security policy, they concluded, is no longer conceived from an outside-in perspective, as was the case during the Cold War, but from the inside out. This, it was agreed, also became clear in the Bulletin editors’ interview with Federal Councilor Guy Parmelin, who described international terrorism as the main security policy challenge for Switzerland.

Tibor Szvircsev Tresch, Andreas Wenger, Stefano De Rosa, Thomas Ferst, Eva Moehlecke de Baseggio, Olivia Schneider, Jennifer Victoria Scurrell Sicherheit 2017: Aussen-, Sicherheits- und Verteidigungs- Sicherheit 2017 Aussen-, Sicherheits- und politische Meinungsbildung im Trend Verteidigungspolitische Meinungsbildung im Trend Tibor Szvircsev Tresch, Andreas Wenger, Stefano De Rosa, Thomas Ferst, Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich, and Military Aca- Eva Moehlecke de Baseggio, Olivia Schneider, Jennifer Victoria Scurrell demy (MILAK) at ETH Zurich, 2017 The annual study Security: The Trend of Opinions on Foreign, Secu- rity, and Defense Policy, a joint publication by the CSS and the Mili- tary Academy at ETH Zurich (MILAK), evaluates long-term trends Hrsg.: Tibor Szvircsev Tresch und Andreas Wenger Center for Security Studies, ETH Zürich und Militärakademie an der ETH Zürich and tendencies in public opinion on foreign, security, and defense policy issues in Switzerland. It is based on representative surveys conducted every year. The study is published in German containing sum- maries in German, French, Italian, and English. The study Security 2017 is based on a representative survey of 1,209 Swiss citizens in January 2017. In the year 2017, Swiss citizens generally felt quite safe and viewed the country’s future with optimism. There was little fear of crime, although slightly less people felt safe in public spaces than in the previous year. However, the global political outlook was assessed pessimistically. Despite significant improvements, the Swiss population still ranked the media and the political parties least trustworthy, despite significant improvements. The police and the judiciary continue to be ranked at the top of the list, while trust in the armed forces and Switzerland’s economy has remained stable. Overall, trust in the authorities and institutions had slightly increased compared to the previous year. Popular support for stronger combating of extremism and terrorism has increased. About one-third of the population has changed travel choices due to terrorism. In 2017, the Swiss voting population continued to oppose more open policies, and the desire for economic and political independence remained high. Support for rapprochement or even membership in the EU and NATO remained very low. On the other hand, there is very strong and constant support for economic cooperation with the EU. In 2017, too, the Swiss voters were highly supportive of the country’s neutrality and near-unanimous in their backing of the neutrality principle. However, the belief that Switzerland’s deep economic and political entanglements are making neutrality impossible is gaining 19 traction. Moreover, the population is less and less inclined to believe that neutrality can be protected by military means. Nevertheless, support for a well-trained and well-equipped army is still high, and a majority of citizens support the militia system. This is in line with a trend showing that respondents have proven to be highly supportive of the armed forces over many years.

CSS Analyses in Security Policy

Subscription to CSS Newsletter The policy brief series CSS Analyses in Security Policy offers a focused Visit www.css.ethz.ch/cssanalyses discussion of current developments and events in international secu- to subscribe to the CSS Newsletter rity. The briefs are published in three languages: The English versions free of charge. are geared towards an international audience, while the German and French versions often look more closely at what the respective security issues mean for Switzerland. In doing so, they reflect an institutional viewpoint of the CSS. The English versions of CSS Analyses are frequently discussed among international security policy experts. The policy briefs also enjoy a great deal of attention among Swiss foreign and security policy experts – among political decision-makers, the public administration, and academia. The CSS Analyses in Security Policy are issued as a monthly e-publication.

CSS Analyses in Security Policy CSS ETH Zurich N0. 202, February 2017, Editor: Matthias Bieri A total of 18 briefs were published in 2017:

The OSCE and the Future of European Security No. 202: The OSCE and the Future of European Security In 2017, under Austrian chairmanship, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) faces a difficult task: Europe’s path back to collective security is a rocky one. However, Vienna, as an experienced mediator, could restore lost trust between Russia and the West. The US under President Donald Trump is embarked on an No. 203: Climate Policy After Paris uncertain course.

By Christian Nünlist No. 204: The Urbanization of Disaster Management On 1 January 2017, Austria took over the chairmanship of the Organization for Se- curity and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). Together with countries such as Switzerland and Finland, Austria is one of the “OSCE nostalgists” who are still strongly engaged in the pan-European security organization. During the Cold War, No. 205: Sectarianism in Pakistan the neutral Alpine republic under Chan- cellor Bruno Kreisky had mediated in the Helsinki Process as an impartial and hon- est broker between East and West.

Since 2014, the need for bridge-building between Russia and the West has become acute once more. The Russian military in- tervention in Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea, in contravention of internation- No. 206: Defense Choices for the Next French President al law, have called into question fundamen- At the Ministerial Council in Hamburg, Foreign Minister Sebastian Kurz presented the priorities of the tal principles of the OSCE such as respect Austrian OSCE Chairmanship in 2017. OSCE for the territorial integrity of states, the in- violability of borders, and abstaining from violence or the threat of violence. able pragmatic assistance on the ground in 2017, Austrian Foreign Minister Sebastian At the same time, the exacerbation of the Eastern Ukraine, for instance by negotiat- Kurz will mediate in acute crises and coor- conflict made the OSCE more relevant ing local ceasefire agreements. dinate all of the OSCE’s activities while again as the organization provided useful also representing the organization exter- No. 207: The Chemical Weapons Ban in Troubled Waters services by defusing tensions and main- In 2017, Austria can shape European secu- nally as the “voice of the OSCE”. taining channels of communication. An in- rity policy more strongly than usual and clusive and consensus-based body, the take on more responsibility for security and However, it would be a mistake to pin too OSCE has been the most important inter- stability in Europe. The Chairmanship-in- high hopes on the Austrian chairmanship national forum for the management of the Office (CiO) is the most important posi- or on the OSCE itself. In 2017, the general Ukraine Crisis. In particular, the Special tion within the OSCE; it is here, not with climate of international politics still does Monitoring Mission (SMM) deployed to the secretary-general’s office, that most of not seem favorable when it comes to re- Ukraine in 2014 has since provided valu- the formative power resides. As CiO in solving the grave crisis of the European Se- No. 208: Security Measures at Zurich Airport

CSS Analyses in Security Policy CSS ETH Zurich N0. 208, May 2017, Editor: Matthias Bieri No. 211: Mediation in Violent Conflict

Security Measures at Zurich Airport No. 212: Trump and the Future of US Grand Strategy After the 2016 attacks in Brussels and Istanbul, security measures at international airports were temporarily tightened, as was the case in Zurich. As a result of the attacks, ways of improving landside security are now being discussed, as well as whether certain security checks ought to be brought forward. However, no fundamental changes were No. 213: NATO: Pushing Boundaries for Resilience made to the security arrangements as a result of the events.

By Matthias Leese and Lisa Wildi No. 214: Cross-examining the Criminal Court The security risk in aviation once again became the subject of public awareness on March 22, 2016, when three assailants launched a bomb attack on Zaventem Air- port in Brussels. Only three months later, Atatürk Airport in Istanbul was the target of a bomb attack. In both cases, “Islamic State” (IS) claimed responsibility for the No. 215: Mali’s Fragile Peace bombs set off in the entrance areas of the airports. After the attack, Brussels-Zaven- tem was closed for about ten days. Once the closure ended, every person arriving at the airport was checked before entering the airport area. However, this measure was re- voked after only two months due to com- plaints from many travellers. In Istanbul, tightened security measures had already been in place before the attack. Baggage No. 216: OPEC and Strategic Questions in the Oil Market items were checked before entering the airport building, and suspicious vehicles in Shortly after the attacks on Brussels airport in March 2016, at Zurich Airport, too, police presence and front of the terminal were inspected by po- security checks were increased. Arnd Wiegmann / Reuters lice officers. As the perpetrators arrived by taxi, they were apparently able to avoid a closer inspection of their vehicle. airside, airports nowadays generally also view of security, this means that the exact Since the attacks, the issue of enhanced have a large area that is accessible to the demarcation of an airport is often not en- airport security is once again the topic of public. This so-called landside not only tirely clear. No. 217: Health Security: The Global Context conversation, also in Switzerland. Zurich comprises the check-in counters but also Airport, which is an international transport shops, supermarkets, restaurants, service The interaction between security services at hub, serves as an example in this debate. providers, conference and office complexes airports is similarly opaque and varied. Na- as well as hotel facilities. Airports are em- tional, regional or local police authorities, The Airport as a Security Area bedded in the local and trans-regional customs and immigration authorities, air- Modern airports are complex entities with transport infrastructure so that passengers, port operators or private security providers many different functions. Besides the con- consumers and other stakeholders are able may be involved, depending on the nation- trolled access to gates and aircraft, called to arrive and depart. From the point of al security landscape and the respective le- No. 218: NATO’s Framework Nation Concept 20 © 2017 Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich 1 No. 219: The Defense Policies of Italy and Poland

21 Strategic Trends Strategic Trends is an annual publication of the CSS. It aims to offer Center for Security Studies a concise analysis of major developments in world affairs, with a pri- STRATEGIC TRENDS 2017 mary focus on international security. Providing interpretations of key Key Developments in Global Affairs trends rather than a comprehensive survey of events, Strategic Trends targets a broad audience ranging from policy-makers to the media, academics, and the general public. Strategic Trends 2017 is the eighth issue in the series. The publication series is available for download at the website of the CSS (www.css.ethz.ch/publikationen/strategic- trends.html). The year 2016 had a few surprises for the liberal international order.

CSS ETH Zurich Observers were shocked by the election of Donald Trump to the US presidency and by the result of the UK Brexit referendum. It was not only the potentially momentous effects of these decisions for the European and global order that caused consternation; even more so, it was the sudden speed at which old certainties lost their value. The four chapters of Strategic Trends 2017 are focused on the Euro-Atlantic security order. They offer early, but well-founded assessments of the current situation and future developments by authors approaching their subjects from a variety of angles: They look at the OSCE, at Donald Trump’s America, at European security policy, and at NATO. The contributions focus on current trends; however, these are the outcomes of longer-term historical processes. This is why current trends have such huge effects on the security policies of European states, on NATO, and on the EU: Calls for mere corrections or improvements of existing structures seem no longer to be sufficient.

Strategic Trends 2017 includes the following articles: Christian Nünlist Contested History: Rebuilding Trust in European Security Jack Thompson Looking Beyond Trump Daniel Keohane Brexit and European Insecurity Martin Zapfe Threatened from Within? NATO, Trump, and Institutional Adaptation

The CSS complements this publication with the annual meeting “Weltpolitische Lage: Herausforderungen für die Schweiz” (see also page 24). On the same day, the authors published their main insights in a two-page article in the Neue Zürcher Zeitung. Moreover, on 5 April 2017, Strategic Trends was presented at the Hertie School of Governance, Berlin. As part of the public discussion, Christian Nünlist, Jack Thompson, and Martin Zapfe laid out the main points of their chapters. The debate was chaired by Prof. 22 Wolfgang Ischinger, who in addition to his work at the Hertie School also chairs the Munich Security Conference. The authors also presented the publication on 9 May 2017 as part of a panel debate organized by the CSS’s partner institute, the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, as well as the Federal Department of For- eign Affairs in Berne on 16 May 2017. The series of events concluded on 12 July 2017 with a gathering of several OSCE representatives at the invitation of the Swiss OSCE Mission in Vienna.

CSS Policy Perspectives Newsletter CSS Policy Perspectives The CSS Policy Perspectives series presents the assessments of CSS Unter www.css.ethz.ch/en/ experts and internationally renowned guest authors on current security publications/css-policy-perspectives issues. They are generated on an event-driven basis, with the objective kann ein Newsletter abonniert werden, of translating the academic excellence of the CSS into policy-relevant der regelmässig über die neuesten analyses and recommendations. The Policy Perspectives are directed Ausgaben informiert. CSS Policy Perspectives ETH Zurich at an international audience and are therefore published in English, as Vol. 5/3, June 2017 an electronic publication. American Affairs and U.S. Foreign Policy A new journal, American Affairs, offers a compelling critique Six CSS Policy Perspectives were published in 2017: of Republican foreign policy, but its prescription for a conservative nationalist alternative would cause more problems than it would solve. Vol. 5/1: Energy Union: Delivery still pending By Jack Thompson

onald Trump won the 2016 election thanks in part to The Context for the Founding of American Affairs Dhis foreign policy agenda. The voters who supported American Affairs seeks to transform the Republican Party. Vol. 5/2: No Shortcut to a European Deterrent Trump prioritized issues such as international trade, im- It views the GOP – and, incidentally, the Democratic Par- migration, and terrorism – all of which were integral to the ty – as hopelessly beholden to a set of “globalist, neoliberal” president’s promise to put “America First”.1 But it has been policies that benefit members of the political and financial difficult to find an expert, of any political persuasion, will- elite, but few others. It seeks to revive the party by aban- ing to endorse it as a plausible way to make the U.S. safer doning the long-standing conservative commitment to and more prosperous. limited government, free trade, and internationalism. In- Into the breach strides American Affairs. This new stead, it pursues what it characterizes as a populist ap- publication offers a powerful defense of Trumpism – the proach that champions a set of nationalist policies behold- Vol. 5/3: American Affairs and US Foreign Policy worldview, if not the man. And, judging from the attention en to neither the prevalent conservative or progressive it has attracted during its brief existence, American Affairs paradigms, nor the elites who champion them. Reforming is already one of the most influential voices in the con- the GOP’s foreign policy is an integral part of this mission. servative firmament. The journal demon- strates that Trump’s criticism of the liberal world order, and his “America First” credo, though inconsistent and often in- coherent, nonetheless leverage ideas that Key Points resonate with many Americans – a point Vol. 5/4: Trump Preparing to End Iran Nuke Deal which many critics of the president may Conservative internationalism is losing its dominance in the GOP, as wish to consider. the party’s base grows increasingly leery of the liberal world order However, the new journal also un- derscores the fact that the conservative American Affairs represents the likely future of Republican foreign nationalist approach to foreign policy, no policy/national security thinking matter how skillfully presented, is flawed. This should serve as a warning to those Its nationalistic orientation is more in tune with the party’s base who believe that the U.S. can be strength- ened through a process of even partial In spite of its potential political appeal, American Affairs advocates Vol. 5/5: Lost in Regulation: The EU and Nord Stream 2 withdrawal from the vicissitudes of inter- an approach that would harm, rather than advance, U.S. interests national politics and trade. Vol. 5/6: The China Challenge Calls for US Leadership

Russian Analytical Digest (RAD) / Caucasus Analytical RAD Newsletter Digest (CAD) Unter www.css.ethz.ch/publikationen/ The Russian Analytical Digest (RAD) analyzes recent events, trends, russian-analytical-digest kann ein and developments within contemporary Russian politics, economics Newsletter abonniert werden, der and business, foreign policy, security, and society. Each issue contains regelmässig über die neuesten original academic and policy relevant research articles by authors from Ausgaben informiert. across the globe, and topical statistical data, graphics, and opinion polls. The series is produced by a partner network that includes the CSS, the Research Centre for East European Studies at the University of Bremen, the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies at the George Washington University, the Center for Eastern Euro- pean Studies (CEES) at the University of Zurich, and the German Association for East European Studies (DGO). The series is partnered with the German language publication Russland-Analysen, the Rus- sian Regional Report, and the Caucasus Analytical Digest (CAD). The CAD is a monthly internet publication jointly produced by the Caucasus Research Resource Center (CRRC), the Research Centre for East European Studies at the University of Bremen, the Center for Eastern European Studies (CEES) at the University of Zurich, the German Association for East European Studies (DGO) and the CSS. 23 The Caucasus Analytical Digest analyzes the political, economic, and social situation in the three South Caucasus states of Armenia, Azer- baijan, and Georgia, looking specifically at the international and security dimensions of this region’s development. The RAD and the CAD are both published in English.

No. 211 12 December 2017 In 2017, 16 RAD issues were published:

russian No. 197: Media analytical digest No. 198: Identity Politics

www.css.ethz.ch/en/publications/rad.html www.laender-analysen.de No. 199: Making Social Policy in Contemporary Russia

THINKING ABOUT THE REVOLUTION: PERSPECTIVES ON RUSSIA BETWEEN STABILITY AND REVOLUTION

■■ANALYSIS 1917 in 2017: a ‘Useless’ Past? Remembering and Forgetting the Bolshevik Revolution 2 No. 200: Social Policy Natasha Kuhrt (King’s College, London) ■■OPINION POLL Russian Opinions about the October Revolution 5 ■■ANALYSIS America’s Failed Russian Revolution: How the Trump Administration Tried, and Failed, to Reset US Thinking About Russia 8 Ruth Deyermond (Kings College, London) No. 201: Federalism ■■OPINION POLL US Attitudes Towards Russia Before and After the 2016 US Presidential Elections 10 ■■ANALYSIS Carl Schmitt in Moscow: Counter-Revolutionary Ideology and the Putinist State 13 David Lewis (University of Bradford, Bradford) ■■OPINION POLL No. 202: Oil Company Benefit Sharing in the Russian North Russian Public Opinion on Putin and on the USA 16 No. 203: Russia and Ukraine Institute for European, Research Centre Center for Center for German Association for Russian, and Eurasian Studies for East European Studies Security Studies Eastern European Studies East European Studies The George Washington University University of Bremen ETH Zurich University of Zurich No. 204: Russian Agriculture and Fisheries No. 205: Sanctions No. 206: Russian Relations with Belarus No. 207: Mobilizing Patriotism in Russia No. 208: Post-Soviet De Facto States No. 209: Russia’s Political Role in East Asia No. 210: Political Mobilization in the Run-Up to the Presidential Elections

CAD Newsletter No. 211: Thinking about the Revolution: Perspectives on Unter www.css.ethz.ch/publikationen/ Russia between Stability and Revolution caucasus-analytical-digest kann ein No. 212: Information Warfare Newsletter abonniert werden, der regelmässig über die neuesten Ausgaben informiert. In addition, ten issues of the CAD were published:

No. 94 28 April 2017 No. 91: Armenian Protests and Politics

Abkhazia

South Ossetia caucasus Adjara No. 92: Iran and the South Caucasus After The Nuclear Deal analytical digest

Nagorno- Karabakh No. 93: Political Islam

www.laender-analysen.de/cad www.css.ethz.ch/en/publications/cad.html

POLITICS WITHIN DE FACTO STATES No. 94: Politics Within De Facto States Special Editor: Donnacha Ó Beacháin (Dublin City University)

■■Introduction by the Special Editor 2 ■■Electoral Politics in the De Facto States of the South Caucasus 3 By Donnacha Ó Beacháin (Dublin City University) ■■The External Relations of De Facto States in the South Caucasus 8 No. 95: Middle Classes By Giorgio Comai (Dublin City University) ■■Public Opinion in the Eurasian De Facto States 15 By Gerard Toal (Virginia Tech, Alexandria, VA) and John O’Loughlin (University of Colorado Boulder) ■■DOCUMENTATION Basic Data and Political Systems of South Caucasus De Facto States 20 No. 96: Transborder Trade

This publication has been produced within the Initial Training Network ‘Post-Soviet Tensions’, which has received funding from the EU FP7/2007-2013 under grant agreement No. 316825. This publication reflects only the authors’ views. The funding body is not responsible for any use No. 97: Religious Institutions and Democratization that may be made of the information it contains.

Research Centre Center Caucasus Research German Association for for East European Studies for Security Studies Resource Centers East European Studies University of Bremen ETH Zurich No. 98: Armenian Elections No. 99: Georgia’s Relations With the EU 24 No. 100: Georgia’s Domestic Political Landscape 3.2 DISCUSSION PLATFORMS

ETH WORKSHOPS ON SWISS SECURITY POLICY

The ETH Workshops on Swiss Security Policy aim to deliver impulses for strategic thinking in Switzerland and to lay the foundation for revising and developing Swiss security policy. They are conducted in cooperation with the Security Policy sector at the General Secretariat of the DDPS. These events are attended by participants from academia, the government and public administration, politics, and the armed forces.

Autonomous Weapon Systems ETH Zurich, 3 February 2017 The 27th ETH Workshop on Swiss Security Policy dealt with the topic of “Autonomous Weapon Systems and their Implications for Security”. After several speakers, including Frank Sauer (Bundeswehr University, Munich) and Niklas Schörnig (Peace Research Institute Frankfurt), had offered an overview of the state of debates and trends, a panel chaired by Reto Wollenmann (FDFA) discussed matters of international law and global governance. Another panel including Lieutenant-General Dominique Andrey (Swiss Army), Commander Thomas Würgler (Zurich Cantonal Police) and National Councilors Ida Glanzmann-Hunkeler and Chantal Galladé discussed the implications for Swiss security policy. The ETH lecture room was at full capacity with more than 70 attendees.

The State of Global Politics 2017 ETH Zurich, 31 March 2017 “The West and Russia” and “Europe and its defense” were the main topics at the State of Global Politics workshop, which was held on 31 March at ETH Zurich. As usual, this gathering served to launch the yearly CSS publication Strategic Trends. Authors and guests agreed that it was harder than ever to analyze, let alone to predict security policy developments in Europe. On the one hand, US foreign policy under President Trump is hard to assess. On the other hand, the diverse impacts of “Brexit” on security policy are not known yet either. Central pillars of European security like NATO must find answers to the Russian challenge. From Switzerland’s perspective, a greater role for the OSCE – the only organization that is both pan-European and transatlantic – would certainly be desirable. However, increased tensions between the West and Russia currently make this an unlikely scenario.

25 US Foreign and National Security Policy in the Trump Era ETH Zurich, 23 June 2017 US President Donald Trump has been causing uncertainty in Europe. Will his administration continue to support the liberal world order, as all US presidents have done since the Second World War, albeit to varying degrees? This was the underlying question that pervaded every presentation and discussion at the ETH Workshop on US foreign and security policy in the Trump era on 23 June 2017. Among the guest speakers were Prof. Hal Brands ( Johns Hopkins University, Washington, D.C.); Prof. Manfred Elsig (University of Berne); Prof. Toby Dodge (London School of Economics); and Dr. Bruno Ter- trais (Fondation pour la recherché stratégique, Paris). The speaker’s assessments varied from the optimistic view that Trump was merely a temporary aberration, since a liberal world order is still supported by a majority of US citizens, to the more pessimistic expectation of a permanent US retreat and concentration on narrowly defined national interests.

CSS EVENING TALKS

The CSS organizes a number of workshops each year to promote cooperation and the exchange of ideas between academics and security policy-makers engaged in practical work. The CSS Evening Talks are a series of occasional events for the discussion of current foreign and security policy events. They are aimed at an audience of experts, journalists, and academics with an interest in security policy.

The Balkans – A Crisis Region in Times of European Uncertainty ETH Zurich, 9 March 2017 The Balkans region is of special interest to Switzerland. On the one hand, this is because many people from the region moved to Swit- zerland during the wars of the 1990s; on the other hand, because the Swiss army’s Swisscoy mission contributes to peacekeeping under a UN mandate in Kosovo. Contrary to hopes that prevailed just a few years ago, the Balkan has largely regressed into a crisis region once more. What options are there for returning the Balkans to a more tranquil state? This was the question debated by Andreas Ernst, Neue Zürcher Zeitung correspondent in Belgrade, and the CSS’s Matthias Bieri. Since many Balkans states have very little realistic chances of joining the EU, certain illiberal forms of democracy have often manifested themselves there, with support from external powers like Russia and Turkey. While this has sometimes resulted in a certain degree of stability, that should not be confused with democracy or the rule of law.

26 Alternative Facts, Propaganda, and the Media Crisis ETH Zurich, 14 June 2017 The information and media landscape has been changing drastically in the past few years. Traditional media, such as daily newspapers, are constantly losing ground, while blogs and other online media are gaining importance. However, the latter often lack quality assurance. At the same time, opinions are increasingly influenced by the propaganda of non-Western actors. Democracy itself can be seen as a critical infrastructure. These matters were discussed by Dr. Sylke Tempel, editor-in-chief of the magazine Internationale Politik, Berlin, and Prof. Otfried Jarren, member of the Institute of Mass Communica- tion, University of Zurich and president of the Federal Media Com- mission at the Evening Talk on 14 June 2017.

The Libyan Crisis and Security Challenges in the Mediterranean ETH Zurich, 12 October 2017 Political developments in the Maghreb generally and in Libya in particular are of special importance to Europe, and thus to Switzerland, for two reasons: First of all, important refugee routes pass through this region, and secondly, the group “Islamic State” (IS) is attempting to gain a permanent foothold there. Therefore, the CSS Evening Talk on 12 October 2017 met with great interest. Under the heading “The Libyan Crisis and Security Challenges in the Mediterranean”, Prof. Yahia Zoubir of the KEDGE Business School in Marseille and Lisa Watanabe of the CSS discussed potential ways of resolving the situation, which in Libya has become particularly intractable. They agreed that there were many good reasons not to play off the various groups in Libya against each other, but to push for a national reconciliation process. This would presumably also allow the Libyans to solve the problem of IS themselves.

Trump’s Foreign Policy: Rhetoric vs. Reality ETH Zurich, 14 November 2017 Rarely has a US president caused such vehement discussions on this side of the Atlantic as Donald Trump. About a year after Trump’s election victory, on 14 November 2017, Dr. Kim Holmes of the Heritage Foundation, Washington, D.C. and former head of department at the US State Department under George W. Bush, and the CSS’s Jack Thompson discussed the prospects for the transatlantic relationship under the heading of “Trump’s Foreign Policy: Rhetoric vs. Reality”. Both panelists agreed that the US is deeply divided over politics – and not only since Trump’s election – making it difficult for the country to retain its leadership role in the international sphere. Europe, they argued, must therefore rely more on its own capabilities. However, European security could not be shaped without any US support altogether.

27 FURTHER SELECTED WORKSHOPS

MSC Side Event: “Renewing Dialog – The OSCE and European Security” Munich Security Conference, 18 February 2017 From 17 to 19 February 2017, the 53rd Munich Security Conference was held in Munich. On 18 February, the CSS organized a luncheon side event at the Hotel Bayrischer Hof on the topic of “Renewing Dialog – the OSCE and European Security”. The speakers were Fed- eral Councilor Didier Burkhalter and the current OSCE chairman and Austrian foreign minister, Sebastian Kurz. Other high-ranking guests included the Russian deputy foreign minister, Alexei Mesh- kov, and former US foreign minister Madeleine Albright. The most pressing task for 2017, according to the participants, was to begin a structured dialog on security in Europe under the aegis of the OSCE, as agreed at the Hamburg OSCE ministerial in December 2016.

Expert Workshop on Terrorism in Europe ETH Zurich, 4 – 5 May 2017 On 4 and 5 May, a workshop was held at the CSS on the theme “Terrorism in Europe”. There were 13 speakers from Switzerland and across Europe and 13 attendees from within Switzerland. The discussions were informal. The speakers and attendees talked in detail about the processes of radicalization and compared various national strategies in Europe to combat these.

OSZE Seminar in cooperation with DCAF ETH Zurich, 12 June 2017 The CSS, at the request of DCAF, organized a half-day seminar at ETH Zurich on the current state of the OSCE and future challenges that it faces. This purpose of this OSCE brainstorming session was to develop ideas for the annual OSCE focus conference in autumn 2017. The nine participants discussed a range of topics including the relationship between Russia and the West, the Ukraine crisis, the structured OSCE dialog on threat perceptions and arms control, and the situation in the Western Balkans and Central Asia. In 2017, the CSS took part for the first time in the topical planning for the Geneva event series, which was already initiated in 1987 and is supported by the FDFA.

CSS Energy Debate: US Energy and Climate Policies under Trump ETH Zurich, 13 June 2017 The first ever CSS Energy Debate focused on the timely topic of US President Donald Trump’s energy and climate policy. Moderated by ETH Zürichs Tobias Schmidt of the Energy Politics Group, Tim Boersma, Senior Research Scholar from SIPA Center for Global 28 Energy Policy at Columbia University, New York, explained the expected policy measures of Trump’s new government, ranging from the exit from the Paris Agreement on Climate Change to changes on the U.S. electricity market. In his comments, CSS Senior Researcher Severin Fischer focused on the immediate effects for European energy security and the expected European reactions. In the discussion with the audience, climate policy actions on the subnational level in the US as well as the role of technology for policy-making were core topics.

Oral History Workshop: The Road to the Paris Charter ifri, Paris, 4 – 5 September 2017 High-ranking contemporary witnesses and historians took part in the Oral History Workshop on “The Road to the Paris Charter” and debated the lesson to be drawn from the elaboration of the OSCE Paris Charter (November 1990) for the contemporary conflict between Russia and the West. Among the witnesses to history were Adam Daniel Rotfeld (Poland), Marianne von Grünigen (Switzer- land), Anatolii Adamishin (Russia ), John J. Maresca (US), Pierre Morel (France), Wilhelm Höynck (Germany), and Markku Reimaa (Finnland). In conversations with historians such as Thomas Blanton, Svetlana Savranskaya, Ian Anthony, Frédéric Bozo, Andrei Zagorski, Juhana Aunesluoma, or Laurien Crump-Gabreëls, they talked about ways of establishing a more stable, inclusive pan-European security architecture, in the year of miracles and revolutions of 1989/90. The workshop was held in the context of the project “Historical Narratives” at the OSCE Network of Think Tanks. It was supported financially by the foreign ministries of Switzerland, Germany, Austria, and Slovakia. The project report was presented at a side event at the OSCE ministerial council meeting on 7 December 2017 in Vienna.

OSCE Focus Conference Geneva, Switzerland, 13 – 14 October 2017 Held from 13 – 14 October at Villa Moynier, Geneva, the OSCE Focus 2017 conference was dedicated to the theme “Empowering the OSCE in Challenging Times”. Over 40 high-ranking participants from the OSCE community, including the newly elected secretary general, engaged in focused, open and frank debates on the need for the OSCE to deal with a rapidly changing geopolitical and security environment and to address the organization’s institutional challenges. The key reflections and recommendations put forward are summa- rized in this report. The conference was organized by the Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces (DCAF) in close collaboration with the ministries of foreign affairs of Austria, Italy, and Switzerland, as well as the CSS.

29 3.3 POLICY CONSULTING

Public Outreach 2017 The CSS provides consultancy for national and international public- Presentation to non-academic sector actors. audiences: 135 Media contributions: 147 Meetings and workshops with SELECTED STUDIES politicians, administrators and scientists: 143 Matthias Bieri, Daniel Keohane, Prem Mahadevan, Fabien Merz, Christian Nünlist, Patrice Robin, Jack Thomson Sicherheitspolitische Trends 2018 – 2026 Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich, 2017 Given the importance of the US for the dynamics of international politics, this analysis of trends in security policy for 2018 looks in detail at the causes and possible effects of the domestic shifts in the US. It is now uncertain whether the US will continue to exercise a leadership role in the world. Europe and the European states must find a suitable response. Therefore, a second focal area analyzes the basic trends affecting current developments in NATO and the Com- mon Security and Defence Police (CSDP). The drastic changes in international politics have left no state unaffected. Therefore, the possible outcomes for Switzerland are briefly outlined in conclusion.

Benno Zogg Briefing Note: Fit For Purpose? Reform und Herausforderungen von UN-Friedensförderung CSS BRIEFING NOTE Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich, 2017

Fit For Purpose? Reform und Herausforderungen von UN-Friedensförderung The 2017 CSS Briefing Note is dedicated entirely to the latest reform efforts in UN peace support. The UN seeks to strengthen the political component of its peacekeeping missions by integrating conflict pre-

Zürich, 9. März 2017 vention measures and is pushing for a holistic approach in its engage- Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zürich ment and partnerships with other organizations. However, these reforms can only go as far as member states and bureaucrats will allow them to go. A stronger engagement of the West or Switzerland is only likely in high-tech areas or civilian and expert roles. On 31 May 2017, Benno Zogg and Martin Zapfe discussed the main insights of the study with participants from the DDPS and FDFA.

30 Matthias Bieri Der Westbalkan zwischen Russland und der EU Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich, 2017 CSS STUDIE This publication looks at the historic role of Russia and the debate Der Westbalkan zwischen over EU integration in the Western Balkans. The study initially asks Russland und der EU whether the expansion of the EU in the region is in jeopardy. It then takes a closer look at Russia’s engagement in the region, explaining in

which areas Russian influence is strong and which networks bind the Zürich, Juli 2017 Western Balkans to Russia. Finally, based on the insights thus gained, Matthias Bieri several possible scenarios for economic development, defense policy, Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zürich and the effects for the overall conflict potential are identified.

Christian Nünlist Reviving Dialogue and Trust in the OSCE in 2018 Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich, 2017 This CSS Background Paper was distributed among conference par- CSS BACKGROUND PAPER ticipants with the aim of stimulating the discussion during the OSCE Reviving Dialogue and Trust Focus conference 2017, held in Geneva from 13 to 14 October 2017. in the OSCE in 2018 The conference was organized by the Geneva Centre for the Dem- ocratic Control of Armed Forces (DCAF) in close supportive collaboration with the ministries of foreign affairs of Austria, Italy, and Zurich, December 2017 Switzerland, and the CSS. Christian Nünlist Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zürich

Tim Prior, Florian Roth, Linda Maduz, Flavia Scafetti Mapping Social Vulnerability in Switzerland – A pilot study on Flooding in Zurich Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich, 2017

This report details a pilot study that sought to understand and map social vulnerability to flood hazard in the city of Zurich. We develop RISK AND RESILIENCE REPORT a theoretical basis and practical methodology to identify key factors of Mapping Social Vulnerability in social vulnerability and their interdependencies. These social charac- Switzerland A pilot study on Flooding in Zürich teristics are mapped to identify “hotspots” of flood-related social vulnerability in the city. Unlike most previous research on social vulnerability to hazards, this report combines social factors that have been Zürich, February 2017

Risk and Resilience Team found to influence and exaggerate social vulnerability to hazards. This Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zürich Commissioned by the Federal Office for Civil Protection (FOCP) approach captures the interdependence of these social factors, providing a more realistic representation of the complexity of social systems.

31 Marie Baezner, Patrice Robin Cyber-conflict between the United States of America and Russia Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich, 2017 CSS CYBER DEFENSE PROJECT The US presidential elections of 2016 were marked by the breaches Hotspot Analysis: Cyber-conflict between the United into the Democratic National Committee’s computer network. This States of America and Russia report describes the details and techniques of the hack, their victims, and the actors involved, including Russian actors. The research focuses

Zürich, June 2017 not only on the DNC hack, but also on older and related hacks that

Version 1 Risk and Resilience Team were attributed to Russia. The report analyzes the effects of these Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zürich hacks on US society and the internal politics, economy, and international relations of the US. Finally, the paper offers recommendations for states to prevent the occurrence of such events in their own elections.

Cyber-dimension in the Ukrainian conflict Marie Baezner, Patrice Robin Cyber and Information Warfare in the Ukrainian Conflict Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich, 2017 CSS CYBER DEFENSE HOTSPOT ANALYSIS

Cyber and Information warfare in the The Ukrainian conflict started with the invasion of Crimea by Rus- Ukrainian conflict sian troops. As the conflict continued, Ukrainian and Russian hackers engaged in tit-for-tat cyberattacks, while maintaining a low degree of intensity. In December 2015 and December 2016, the cyberattacks

Zürich, June 2017 on the Ukrainian power grid showed that cyber-capabilities could be Version 1

Cyber Defense Project (CDP) Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zürich used to escalate the conflict. This report examines the various methods used in the numerous cyberattacks in the context of the Ukrainian conflict, as well as the categories of victims and the possible perpe-

1 trators. The report analyzes the effects of the cyberattacks on Ukrai- nian society, politics, economy, technology, and international relations. Finally, it proposes a series of recommendations for states to minimize the effects of the cyber-activities resulting from the Ukrainian conflict.

Robert Dewar Active Cyber Defense Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich, 2017 CSS CYBER DEFENCE TREND ANALYSIS 1

Active Cyber Defense Active cyber defense (ACD) is an important, but ill-defined concept in cybersecurity. This Trend Analysis aims to provide some conceptual clarity for the benefit of practitioners, scholars, and policy-makers. It examines a series of techniques commonly associated with ACD and

Zürich, June 2017 contextualizes them with resilient and fortification-based approaches Risk and Resilience Team Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zürich to cyberdefense. The Trend Analysis also conducts an empirical, qualitative analysis of national cybersecurity strategies, which dem- onstrates that ACD is not deployed in isolation, but as an important component in a wider, strategic approach to national cyberdefense. The combination of conceptual clarity and policy-based analysis in the Trend Analysis shows that a goal-oriented approach to strategic cyberdefense is the best approach in this constantly shifting security field, as it allows for the most appropriate and effective tools to be selected depending on circumstances. 32 Marie Baezner, Patrice Robin Stuxnet Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich, 2017 CSS CYBER DEFENSE HOTSPOT ANALYSIS

Stuxnet was a malware first discovered in 2010 on an Iranian com- Stuxnet puter. It was designed specifically to sabotage centrifuges in the Iranian nuclear facility of Natanz. The discovery of Stuxnet raised awareness of cybersecurity issues for critical infrastructures around the world.

The goal of this report is to offer a retrospective analysis of the very Zürich, October 2017 Version 1

Cyber Defense Project (CDP) specific case of Stuxnet to better understand its effects. The Hotspot Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zürich Analysis examines the specific features of Stuxnet, its targets, and its creators. It analyzes the effects of the malware on Iranian society and politics, its economy, and technology. It also looks at the influence that Stuxnet had on international relations. Finally, the report makes several recommendations how states can decrease the risks of becoming victims of malware such as Stuxnet.

The Syrian cyber-battlefield Marie Baezner, Patrice Robin The Use of Cybertools in an Internationalized Civil War Context: Cyber-activities in the Syrian Conflict CSS CYBER DEFENSE HOTSPOT ANALYSIS Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich, 2017 The use of cybertools in an internationalized civil war context: The conflict in Syria developed from civilian protests against the gov- Cyber activities in the Syrian conflict ernment in 2011 to a civil war. The hostilities were not limited to the physical realm, but also took place in cyberspace. The goal of this report is to analyze the mechanisms of the use of cybertools in the Zürich, October 2017 Version 1

Cyber Defense Project (CDP) context of a civil war and to make some recommendations how states Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zürich can reduce the risk of falling victim to similar attacks.

Robert Dewar Cyberweapons: Capability, Intent and Context in Cyberdefense Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich, 2017

This analysis proposes a method of conceptualizing cyberweapons CSS CYBERDEFENSE TREND ANALYSIS 2 with an aim to help policymakers and practitioners improve their Cyberweapons: Capability, Intent and responses to cyber incidents by focusing on two conditions: the intent Context in Cyberdefense of an actor using the cyberweapon and its impact. The paper then provides an empirical grounding for this set of conditions by apply- ing it to a series of well-known and documented cyber-incidents and Zürich, November 2017

Risk and Resilience Team Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zürich explores three core trends identified in this empirical exercise.

Marie Baezner, Patrice Robin Cyber and Information Warfare in Elections in Europe Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich, 2017 The report explains the use of cyber-activities in elections and the way states prepare themselves to counter such activities. Furthermore, the report suggests measures to mitigate the risks of foreign influence in democratic elections.

33 Marie Baezner, Patrice Robin Strategic Stability Between Great Powers: The Sino-American Cyber Agreement CSS CYBER DEFENSE PROJECT Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich, 2017

Hotspot Analysis: Strategic stability between Great After a series of discoveries of Chinese cyberespionage campaigns Powers: the Sino-American cyber Agreement against firms and defense contractors, Edward Snowden’s revelation of the US government’s mass internet surveillance program in 2013 gave

Zürich, December 2017 the two states an opportunity to reach a bilateral agreement. The goal

Version 1 Risk and Resilience Team of this report is to understand the dynamics of the strategic relation- Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zürich ship between the US and China over issues of cybersecurity. Further- more, the report makes some recommendations for state measures to reduce the risks arising from the tensions between China and the US.

Discussion Points of the Mediation Support Network (MSN) No. 8 Siem Reap 2016 Teresa Ma, Erik Nilsson, edited by Jonas Baumann Encountering and Countering Temporary Impasses in Encountering and Countering Peace Processes Temporary Impasses in Peace Processes Mediation Support Network (MSN) Discussion Points No. 8, Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich, 2017 The experiences of being stuck and having to un-stick discussions are part of the daily business of a peace mediation process. In the best of cases, such moments pass quickly; in the worst cases, they lead to an end of the peace process. Between those extremes lies a middle path that has so far been only poorly studied: temporary impasses. The 9th issue of the MSN Discussion Points series explains how such impasses come about, identifies different types of temporary impasses, and offers ideas for overcoming such impasses. The MSN Discussion Points are edited by the CSS in its function as coordinator of the MSN Secretariat. The Mediation Support Project MSP (a joint initiative of CSS and swisspeace, funded by the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs FDFA) supported the organization of this meeting.

Anna Hess Sargsyan, guest editor-in-chief Unravelling Complexities in OSCE Mediation Special edition on Mediation for the OSCE Security and Human Rights, Helsinki Committee, Brill/Netherlands, 2017 The special edition is an attempt to unpack overgeneralized narratives about OSCE Mediation. The publication takes a critical look at key factors that shape the mediation work of the OSCE: its institutional set-up as far as the conflict resolution mechanisms and relevant procedures are concerned; the geopolitical interests and tensions of participating states engaged in mediation processes; and specific tech- nicalities related to process design. With this intention in mind, the publication brings together the highly relevant perspectives of 16 authors from different walks of life, ranging from practitioners to policy-makers and academics, who provide a good mix of practical and theoretical insights into the complex world of OSCE mediation. The special edition gives space for diverse 34 views on OSCE-led or OSCE-supported peace processes as well as the nature of relevant protracted conflicts, covering different angles, including those of mediators, third parties, and conflict parties. The work of coordinating and editing the special issue was done in the framework of the Mediation Support Project (MSP), a joint initiative of the CSS and swisspeace, funded by the Swiss FDFA.

SELECTED MEETINGS AND WORKSHOPS As a member of the “Überführung WEA” think tank, Andreas Wenger took part in Präsentation: Aktuelle sicherheitspolitische Trends its meting regularly. Berne, 26 January 2017 On 26 January 2017, Oliver Thränert and Matthias Bieri of the CSS Think Tank delivered a report on current trends in security policy to the Joint Doctrine Board of the Swiss Armed Forces Joint Staff in Berne. The main topics were the new challenges arising from the reorientation of US foreign and security policy as marked by the election of Donald Trump as US president. These and a number of other factors, such as the planned departure of the UK from the EU, are likely to make the security policy situation in Europe more convoluted and crisis-ridden, which also has knock-on effects for Switzerland.

Workshop series with members of the Swiss armed forces Zurich, 21 April and 1 December 2017 This year, CSS staff again met with members of the Swiss armed forces in order to discuss current challenges in security policy. Among the topics discussed were ongoing developments in European Secu- rity and Defence Policy and the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, including the outcomes for Switzerland. Participants found that as part of the “structured cooperation”, the EU might make a certain degree of progress in the development of a common security and defense policy. Indicators included the strong interest on the part of actors like France, but also of other important actors like Germany, as well as insecurity over the mid- to long-term course of the US. On the other hand, the Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty was debated contro- versially, since it was claimed that if Switzerland were to join, there would be consequences for military cooperation with the majority of Switzerland’s neighbors that would refrain from joining it.

35 Workshop: Conventional Arms Control in Europe Zurich, 27 April 2017 Together with the FDFA’s Division for Security Policy, the CSS organized a one-day internal workshop for 12 practitioners from the FDFA and the DDPS on conventional arms control (CAC) in Europe. The purpose was to develop concrete ideas and suggestions for refining Switzerland’s positioning in current and future talks and negotiations. The focus was on the structured dialog on security issues in the OSCE that began on 7 April 2017 in Vienna (“Steinmeier initiative”), immediate measures for avoiding military incidents, concrete suggestions for modernizing the Vienna 2011 document and the Open Skies Treaty, and fundamental discussions about a potential new CAC treaty (“CFE replacement”). An internal report to the FDFA noted the main insights gained in discussions between experts and practitioners.

Workshop Series with Labor Spiez The CSS supports the efforts by Labor Spiez to build up an international network of laboratories to investigate suspected cases of biological weapons use in the framework of a workshop series.

Visit by Taiwan’s “All Out Defense Mobilization Committee” Zurich, 30 August 2017 A six-person delegation from Taiwan’s “All Out Defense Mobiliza- tion Committee” led by Gan-ming Han visited the CSS on 30 August 2017. The Swiss and Euro-Atlantic Security Team briefly presented the delegation to the ETH and the CSS and offered its guests a overview of Swiss security policy, the militia system, and the ongoing armed forces reform.

Expert Workshop: Challenges and implications of the Refugee Crisis Zurich, 27 – 28 October 2017 The rapid increase of refugee numbers in recent years has presented the European states with considerable challenges. The registration, distribution, housing, and care of refugees in Europe at short notice requires close collaboration between the authorities, aid organizations, and civil society. In the process, the strengths and weaknesses of existing structures and crisis management procedures have been exposed. In order to advance the exchange of information between Germany, Austria, and Switzerland in a variety of areas relating to the refugee issue, the Federal Office for Civil Protection and the CSS jointly organized a two-day expert workshop in Zurich. The CSS summa- rized the main conclusions of the workshop in a report.

36 37 Intra-Buddhist Dialog for Majority-Minority Coexistence in Thailand Workshop Series in Southern Thailand Since 2014, the program on Culture and Religion in Mediation (CARIM), a joint initiative of the CSS and the Swiss FDFA, has been working in partnership with the Institute for Human Rights and Peace Studies at Mahidol University, Thailand on engaging the Thai Buddhist community in efforts to promote peaceful coexistence in southern Thailand. In 2017, the project organized a series of intra- Buddhist dialog workshops where participants jointly analyzed the obstacles to majority-minority coexistence and prepared messages they wished to communicate to other stakeholders. The project then facilitated exchanges between participants and representatives of the Thai military and civilian authorities and representatives of the Mus- lim communities in the south and at the national level. Participants were also supported in reaching out to local Buddhist communities in the South to better understand their concerns and support local efforts at promoting coexistence between Buddhists and Muslims.

Supporting Local Peace Committees Workshop series in N’Djamena, Chad The CSS, the Cordoba Foundation, and the Swiss FDFA supported the set-up of local peace committees by the Center Al-Mouna (Chad) with strategic process planning, workshop facilitation, and expert input on local peace committees, conflict transformation, and mediation. The goal of the local peace committees at the community level is to understand and constructively address religious and ethnic conflicts when they arise so outbreaks of violence can be prevented. The support was organized by the Culture and Religion in Mediation Pro- gram (CARIM), a joint initiative of the CSS and the FDFA, as well as the Cordoba Foundation in Geneva and the FDFA.

Consensus-Based Approaches to Dealing with Dispute and Justice Chiefs Council Workshop, Harare (Zimbabwe), 28 – 30 August 2017 The Africa University (AU) and the CSS organized a workshop for traditional leaders to share experiences and insights on how to help actors in disputes reach a mutually acceptable agreement. Thirty members of the National Council of Chiefs of Zimbabwe from all provinces participated in the workshop. This workshop is part of a two-year Negotiation and Mediation Training Project (2017 – 18) between the AU and CSS. The support was carried out in the framework of the Mediation Support Project (MSP), a joint initiative of the CSS and swisspeace funded by the FDFA, and the Institute for Peace, Leadership and Governance (IPLG) of the Africa University (AU) in Zimbabwe.

State of the Field of Mediation: Challenges for 38 Mediation Support Mediation Support Network Meeting, New York and Washington DC (USA), 27 – 30 March 2017 The 13th Mediation Support Network (MSN) meeting was dedicated to the topic of “State of the Field of Mediation: Challenges for Medi- ation Support”. The attendees discussed current trends in mediation support, provided critical input to the upcoming UN secretary-general’s report on mediation and conflict prevention, attended the launch of the UN DPA Guidance for Gender and Inclusive Mediation Strat- egies, and consulted on the UN DPA guidance on ceasefire mediation. As the coordinator of the MSN Secretariat, the Mediation Support Project (MSP, a joint initiative of CSS and swisspeace funded by the Swiss FDFA) supported the organization of this meeting.

Approaches to Worldview Conflicts on the Role of Women in Society Expert Workshop, ETH Zurich, 12 – 13 October 2017 Fifteen professionals from various geographical and philosophical backgrounds gathered at the ETH Zürich to discuss approaches to deal with conflicts between groups with a worldview difference whose disagreement manifests around the role of women in society. Drawing on case studies from Morocco, Pakistan, Central African Republic and Afghanistan, the workshop focused on a range of key questions such as how to bridge polarization, how to enable social change in relation to power structures as well as how to frame and speak about the role of women and the conflict. Overall, the workshop concluded that approaches to work in such conflicts should be respectful and adapted to the context, culture and worldview. The workshop took place within the Culture and Religion in Mediation program (CARIM, a joint program between the CSS’ Mediation Support Team and the Human Security Division of the Swiss FDFA).

SELECTED BRIEFINGS AND COURSES

Briefing of FDFA diplomats Where possible, the CSS offers briefings to members of the FDFA’s diplomatic corps about to be deployed overseas about specific security policy aspects of their new post and its region. This year, too, this offer met with strong interest, especially among those about to be posted to eastern and northern European countries.

39 Master’s Program in Conflict Settlement and Mediation National Technical University of Ukraine – Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, 2017 In cooperation with the Ukrainian Ministry of Temporarily Occupied Territories and Internally Displaced Persons and the Swiss FDFA Ukraine Desk, the CSS has been supporting the National Techni- cal University of Ukraine at Kiev in setting up a Master’s Program in Conflict Settlement and Mediation, which was launched in Sep- tember 2017. The CSS, in the framework of the Mediation Support Project (MSP, a joint initiative of CSS and swisspeace funded by the Swiss FDFA), has been engaged in the design and coordination of key international modules in conflict settlement, as well as the conceptu- alization and delivery of dialog and mediation modules in support of the ongoing Master’s program in Kiev.

Peace Mediation Course Oberhofen (Switzerland), 7 – 19 May 2017 The tenth Peace Mediation Course (PMC) was held this year, organized by the Swiss FDFA and the Mediation Support Project (MSP, a joint initiative of the CSS and swisspeace funded by the FDFA). The goal of the Peace Mediation Course is for participants to deepen their understanding of peace mediation and acquire the skills, knowledge and attitudes to support mediation processes effectively. In 2017, 23 participants attended the course, including representatives of the FDFA, the UN, regional organizations, governmental and non-governmental organizations, and experts from conflict regions. The PMC offers uniquely practical insights delivered by experienced speakers giving first-hand accounts. Since its beginnings in 2008, it has been regarded as one of the most important mediation courses with regard to peace processes.

Religion and Mediation Course Schwarzenberg (Switzerland), 3 – 8 September 2017 The Culture and Religion in Mediation (CARIM) program’s fourth Religion and Mediation Course took place in cooperation with the Swiss FDFA, the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland, and the Network of Religious and Traditional Peacemakers in Schwarzenberg, near Lucerne. The course brought together 25 peace practitioners to deepen their understanding of the interplay between religion and politics in violent political conflict and to acquire the skills, knowledge and attitudes to support efforts to mediate or transform conflicts where religion plays a role.

40 Negotiation and Mediation Course Mutare (Zimbabwe), 26 June to 1 July and 23 – 25 August 2017 The CSS, in the framework of the Mediation Support Project (MSP, a joint initiative of the CSS and swisspeace funded by the FDFA), and the Institute for Peace, Leadership and Governance (IPLG) of the Africa University (AU) in Zimbabwe collaborated to implement the second Negotiation and Mediation Course at the AU. The course consisted of a six-day training program from 26 June to 1 July 2017, in Mutare, Zimbabwe, a project work assignment, and a three day follow-up training session from 23 to 25 August 2017. Twenty-five senior representatives from Zimbabwean state and non-state actors participated in the training. This course is part of a two-year Negotia- tion and Mediation Training Project (2017-2018) between the AU and MSP-CSS.

UN Religion and Mediation Course New York, 12 – 15 December 2017 Together with the Mediation Support Unit (MSU) of the United Nations Department of Political Affairs (DPA), the Network for Reli- gious and Traditional Peacemakers, the Finnish MFA, and the Swiss FDFA, the Culture and Religion in Mediation (CARIM) program at CSS organized the third edition of the UN Religion and Mediation Course in New York. It focused on providing participants with the knowledge and tools to support the design of mediation processes in violent political conflicts in which religion plays a role.

UN Ceasefire Mediation Course Oslo, 24 – 30 April 2017 The CSS, in the framework of the Mediation Support Project (MSP, a joint initiative of the CSS and swisspeace funded by the Swiss FDFA), collaborated with the UN Mediation Support Unit, the Norwegian Defence International Centre (NODEFIC), the Norwe- gian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the Swiss FDFA on the UN Ceasefire Mediation course. The training focused on a multi-faceted approach to ceasefire mediation by providing a deeper understanding of the political, military, humanitarian, gender, and socio-economic dimensions of ceasefires.

41 3.4 TRANSATLANTIC POST-DOC FELLOWSHIP FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AND SECURITY (TAPIR)

The Transatlantic Post-Doc Fellowship for International Relations and Security (TAPIR) is open to candidates who have recently received their doctorate in social and political sciences, or economics and whose research focuses on topics of international relations and security. Fellowships are granted for a duration of 24 months to prepare fellows for a career in policy-oriented and international research at renowned think tanks and political consulting research institutes. There are currently five fellowships available through the TAPIR program. Since October 2017, Brian Carlson has been part of the CSS as a TAPIR scholar. He studies Russian-Chinese relations. Among others, the following institutions participate in the TAPIR program: • Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich • Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA), Helsinki • German Marshall Fund (GMF), Washington, D.C., Berlin/Paris • RAND Corporation (RAND), Washington, D.C. • Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), Berlin/Brussels • Chatham House, London

42 4 THE CENTER FOR SECURITY STUDIES (CSS)

The CSS is committed to researching Swiss and international security issues. Its activities are structured into the pillars of research, teaching and think tank. The CSS was founded in 1986 by Prof. em. Dr. Kurt R. Spillmann and has developed into a national center of competence for security policy with an international impact. The CSS combines research with policy advice to bridge the gap between academia and practice. It trains highly qualified young tal- ents and serves as a point of contact and source of information for the interested public.

Staff Prof. Dr. Andreas Wenger has served as the director of the CSS since 2002. Andreas Wenger is Professor of International and Swiss Security Policy at the ETH Zurich and delegate for the Diploma of Advanced Studies ETH in Military Sciences continuing education program and the BA ETH in Public Policy bachelor program. He is also the director of the MAS ETH Mediation in Peace Processes program. The CSS employs a total of about 60 staff.

Strategic Partnership Since 2004, the CSS has been jointly supported by ETH Zurich and the Federal Department of Defence, Civil Protection and Sport (DDPS). Another partnership with the Federal Department of For- eign Affairs (FDFA) was established in 2012. Advisory boards com- prising representatives of relevant sponsoring bodies support the CSS management in developing its strategic orientation. The CSS is anchored within the Department of Humanities, Social and Political Sciences (D-GESS) at ETH Zurich. Together with the chairs in Political Science at ETH Zurich and the University of Zurich, it has formed the Center for Comparative and International Studies (CIS) since 1997.

Partner Network The CSS has an extensive network of national and international partners from academia, policy, the media, and the private sector.

Internship Program Every year, the CSS offers a comprehensive internship program for four students enrolled in MA and BA programs. Center for Security Studies (CSS) ETH Zurich Haldeneggsteig 4, IFW 8092 Zurich, Switzerland Tel.: +41 44 632 40 25 Fax: +41 44 632 19 41 [email protected]