2 CoNTeNTS Crossbow Magazine SEPTEMBER 2013

Conference Agenda UNITE THE RIGHT: HOW TO RENEW THE CONSERVATIVE MOVEMENT.

This event will feature the launch of our conference edition of Crossbow and a discussion of “Can the UKIP and Conservative Party unite in a national conservative movement?” Time - October 1st 5:00PM- 7:00PM Venue - The Bridgewater Conference Centre in the Charles Halle room. Speakers - Toby Young, and Andrew Lilico. CAN SURVIVE PRIVATISATION? Join us to discuss the future of Royal Mail.The Government wants to privatise Royal Mail. In the long term will the new owner be willing to provide the current level of services to rural communities? What impact will the sale have on the future of the Post Offi ce branch network? Time - Tuesday 1 October 7.15pm - 8.30pm Venue- Marquee – Manchester Central Speakers - Chair: Jackie Ashley, columnist and political interviewer, Speakers: Mario Dunn, campaign director, Save Our Royal Mail, Ben Harris- Quinney, chairman, , Conservative MP TBC. The Bow Group Council President Offi cers Crossbow Team The Rt. Hon. Sir John KG CH PC Chairman – Ben Harris-Quinney Editor – Luke Springthorpe Deputy Editor - Peter Smith Research Secretary – Luke Springthorpe Layout by Smart Page (www.smart-page.co.uk) Senior Patrons Secretary – Jack Chubb The Rt. Hon. Lord Howe of Aberavon CH QC PC Treasurer – Anthony Samuels Links The Rt. Hon. Lord Heseltine of Thenford CH PC Communications Director – Raheem Kassam Web: www.bowgroup.org The Rt. Hon. Lord Lamont of Lerwick CH PC Events Director – Ben Ballinger : @bowgroup The Rt. Hon. Lord Howard of Lympne CH PC QC Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/thebowgroup Campaigns Director – Nic Conner Online Editor – Graham Godwin-Pearson Ordinary Member – Brian Cattell (former Chairman) Contact Email offi [email protected] Ordinary Member – Atula Abeysekera

This edition of Crossbow is published by Bow Publications Limited. The views put forward in this magazine are the views of the relevant contributors only and not the views of the Bow Group nor any of its affi liates. © Bow Group 2013

Crossbow 2013-10.indd 2 26/09/2013 12:03:38 www.bowgroup.org Foreword 3 Contents

Chairman’s Message How Can the Conservative It is time for the state 4 Ben Harris-Quinney Chairman 26 Party Deliver For Scotland? 50 to divorce from marriage The Bow Group Annabel Goldie MSP altogether. Ben Harris-Quinney Editors’ Letter How will the Conservative 5 Luke Springthorpe 28 Party win city seats? Marriage and fathers make a AM 52 difference Who’s voting Conservative? Dr Samantha Callan 6 Gideon Skinner North West Blue Collar 28 How can the Conservatives Government Policy Ged Mirfin 54 improve relations with the 7 Performance, Public Opinion churches? and Electoral Consequences A Majority without Engaging Peter Smith Prof. Jane Green & Will 30 Minorities is Impossible Jennings Samuel Kasumu On Power and Progress 55 Cllr Robin Millar Political Lessons of the Winning public sector voters 8 Fifth Anniversary of 2008 31 Charlotte Leslie MP More Time For Bow: The Andrew Lilico 57 Modernisers Place in the What Happened to Green Think-Tank Archipelago Reviving the Conservative 32 Conservatism? Todd Carter 10 Family David Davis MP Graham Godwin Pearson There’s No Accounting For Conservatives and party Message Matters 59 Accountability. 11 membership Nabil Najjar Ben Balliger Sir MP 34 We are for you How to Join the Bow Group What to do about declining 36 MP 61 13 Party membership Paul Goodman Lessons from Keynes Sir Samuel Brittan Our Expats are Ex citizens: 37 15 The lost Conservative Plan A is best abroad 39 MP Ben Harris-Quinney Towards a free-market anti- The Aspiration Nation 40 poverty strategy 16 Donna Edmunds Kristian Niemietz

Why reforming our Doing Foreign Aid the 18 organisation is crucial to 42 Conservative Way long-term electoral success Miles Windsor Gavin Barwell MP Conservatism and the How to revive party owning of ownership membership 43 19 Phillip Blond Sarah-Jane Sewell It’s time to deliver real and the loss rail competition; twenty to politics of Merry 45 20 years since Conservatives Andrew Gimson delivered railway Unite the Right privatisation 22 Toby Young Tony Lodge Winning over minorities will Localism: Our RSVP Has 23 win majorities 48 Been Lost In The Post Baroness Sayeeda Warsi Joshua Crossley

How will the Conservatives A Case for the Marriage 25 win the next election? 49 (Same Sex Couples) MP Matthew McCarthy-Rechowicz

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Party Shrugged. politics, its cultural norms are deeply set in and its death throws will be as t best, membership of the Conservative ugly as the demolition of any establishment. Party has halved since Atook over leadership of the Party in Those that have based their political careers 2005. around this model that are expectantly advancing along the traditional conveyor belt to Many have defended and dismissed these power are likely to be disappointed, those that figures as being a modern cross-party trend placed power before principle are likely to be and many have blamed Cameron’s distant, defeated, and parties that place establishment seemingly anti-conservative leadership. as a defence against ideas are likely to be Neither analysis gets to the heart of what is destroyed. happening. Ben Harris-Quinney The Conservative Party can survive, but its grave is now marked: If the Party cannot Chairman In the Bow Group’s last conference edition of Crossbow conservative authors came together envision a future where its ideas are as distinct The Bow Group to bemoan the politics of the third-way, and from others as they were in the post-war era, offer the beginnings of an alternative – a return then it won’t have a future at all. to primary colours conservatism, with ideas, As is often the case, this great challenge to the democracy and genuine expertise at its heart. future of the Conservative Party comes with the We could not, however, have predicted such a greatest of opportunities alongside. UKIP’s rise stark beginning to the shifting of the political has proven that if a party sets out clear, distinct plates that the last year has witnessed. and forthright ideas, the public will respond, and will swiftly buck the trend against political When Party membership was at its peak, big malaise. ideas mattered and the difference between political parties was never so clear; public vs When was Chairman of the Bow private ownership, state control vs personal Group in 1973, battling against the mediocrity liberty, traditional vs “progressive” values. of Heath’s leadership, things had to get worse before they got better, but the darkest of nights We are often warned by the current produced the brightest of days: Thatcher rebuilt Conservative Party leadership of the dire and re-energised the Conservative Party, she set socialist republic that awaits us if Ed Milliband ideas at its heart, and inspired a generation to succeeds Cameron as Prime Minister in 2015, come. but the last 3 years have proven that there really is no discernible difference, at least to As a country we also face greater challenges the general public, between any of the major today, our role in the world is yet further political parties. diminished, our economic model based on borrowing has collapsed, our society is more It is this failure that underpins the results divided than ever. These challenges will not we are now seeing: membership of all pass swiftly, and the solutions to them will be parliamentary parties at rock bottom, varied and often violently opposed. confidence in all major Party leaders at a historic low: a citizenry broadly apathetic to Conservative ideas work and conservative politics as a whole. leadership inspires, there are millions of lost conservatives in Britain currently turned off The British public and the few remaining Party by political parties that want to be part of a members will only tolerate the status quo for so genuine conservative movement. long. We have the tools in thought and ideas to The question for the next 25 years of the British rebuild Britain, and the Conservative Party can is not funding, be it state, union again be our vehicle to do so, but we will have or private donor, it is existence itself. to make great changes within the Party, before Unless the political party changes radically we can make them without. and moves purposefully into a new era, the I hope that you will enjoy this edition of public and rapidly decreasing membership , Crossbow that aims to explore the internal once relied upon to be the leafleters, donors and issues in the Conservative Party, how it lost its voters, will shrug. base, and how it can win it back. Moving beyond the populist politics of the third way will be a painful process for British

Crossbow 2013-10.indd 4 26/09/2013 12:03:38 www.bowgroup.org edITorS’ LeTTer 5 Editors’ Letter Luke Springthorpe

he theme for this edition- finding representatives have a firm enough starting to cause considerable damage. the ‘Lost Conservative’- is the grasp of their brief to make any It has resulted in a membership base TBow Group’s move to breathe difference. that feels completely disillusioned life into the vital debate on how to and alienated from the direction their Combined with this, we have seen the revive our ailing membership and to party is moving in. Whilst they don’t role of the regulated market increase, re-create a Conservative Party that expect to write the next manifesto, they diminishing the importance of elected once again commands broad enough are entitled to be more engaged in the government. What this means for most support to form a government. process than pollsters and spin doctors people is that elected officials exercise What the exercise of compiling this if there is to be any point in them less control over the institutions that edition has affirmed, is that very few sacrificing their time and money to be a we interact with on a day to day basis genuinely believe we can continue party member. whilst powerful but largely faceless, down the path we are currently set on. unaccountable regulators make the What’s more, the tight control over the As far as membership is concerned, bulk of the decisions. This can only message is at least partly to blame for I am in agreement with the likes of diminish the importance people the electorates’ apathy. The resulting David Davis when he asserts that this attach to being actively involved in shift to the centre ground- which is not a new problem. What seems conventional electoral politics. is in reality a constantly moving clear to me is that whilst services target- has resulted in a stale debate In the context of party membership, delivered in other walks of life have and not enough debate on significant the Conservative party has plainly changed almost beyond recognition in issues between the three parties in failed to adapt to these changes. The the last generation, the party political Westminster for the electorate to be membership structure is outdated in apparatus is more outdated than ever. energised by the choices before them. that there is little to be involved with A strong and powerful membership, What is apparent, is that we live in beyond canvassing and going to any empowered by modern tools can help the era where the individual expects social events that may be organised if address that. a greater degree of interaction with you’re lucky enough to live somewhere an organisation, and the real potential with a strong . I hope you enjoy reading this edition of changing an outcome must exist There are too few opportunities for as much as I and Peter Smith, my if they are to engage in a meaningful meaningful input beyond this, which Deputy Editor, have enjoyed putting way. Households find themselves can be frustrating for those wanting it together. Should you wish to under immense pressure to make to be heard but who lack the time and contribute to future editions or should ends meet, and improving personal inclination to become actively involved you wish to reply to one of the articles, living standards year on year requires in the traditional sense. please do e-mail [email protected] more effort than ever. Under such To say it isn’t possible to engage our Luke Springthorpe, Editor of Crossbow & circumstances, people are prone to supporters is simply lazy. I remember Research Secretary switch off from political involvement if my tenure as a Member of the UK they are not engaged in a worthwhile Youth Parliament a number of years way. back now when our electorate not Our challenge is to reassure them that only voted for their representatives, we are the party that is on their side but voted for the issues they would and the party that will knock down campaign on. Other success stories the barriers in the way of realising such as 38 Degrees and Avaaz have their dreams and aspirations and that been mentioned by contributors here. a conservative policy mix is the right The templates exist- the party simply one to make a discernible difference needs to incorporate them. to their living standards. The problem Unfortunately, it appears as if ‘being is, too few believe that anyone in on message’ remains the be all and end politics has the answer to this. In part, all and this is an unwelcome hangover it could be owing to a modern day from the Blair era. Dissent from the “managed decline” where we see it party line has become tantamount as inevitable that our wealth in the to heresy, and the only view in town West will diminish as that in the East that matters is, we are told, that of the rises. Alternatively, it may be as Sir leadership. Samuel Brittan claims in that many simply don’t believe their elected This attempt to control the message is

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ith less than two years to Conservative support among women the Conservatives support (and only go until the next general since the 1970s, but actually the most 24% of Labour’s). Yet the drop in Welection, now is the ideal damage was done under Tony Blair – Conservative support has been pretty time to pose the question: if the since the last election the fall in support much the same everywhere – the Conservative Party is a broad church, has been exactly the same among both Conservatives haven’t lost in any one who is their congregation? By genders), there are clear signs of a region more than another. combining all the monthly Political problem among women in social class Similarly, Conservative support is far Monitors from April 2012 (post the C2 (blue-collar/skilled workers, to use behind Labour in major cities (defined “omnishambles” budget which has a rough generalisation). In 2010, the as those with at least two MPs) where proved one of the few really defining Conservatives successfully appealed the party only attracts 27% of the vote, political events since the election) to very strongly to this group – in fact, at compared to rural areas where the March 2013, we have a large data set of 41%, better even than among middle- Conservatives have a six-point lead. around 12,000 interviews to provide at class women, for the first time in very Meanwhile their share is twice as high least some of the answers. But as well many years. But since that admittedly in the most affluent areas as it is in the as painting the current picture, it is unusual high Conservative support most deprived. Again, though, the important to ask how this has changed has fallen by 12 points among this fall in Conservative support has been since 2010 (and earlier). Nationally the group, more than any other. Taking pretty equal across areas of different Conservative vote has fallen from 37% the long view also illustrates another wealth, while even though in absolute to 31% since the 2010 election, but has point about the breakdown in class terms the Conservatives still do best the fall happened among all groups or voting over the years – in 1992, the in rural areas, their vote has actually is there a particular type of voter that Conservatives held a 37 point lead over fallen more in the countryside than it the Conservatives are losing? Labour among ABs, but in the last year has in the cities. this stands at a Labour lead of three. In fact, the broad outlines of Finally, we can’t forget the recent rise Conservative support will be readily Other fault-lines also still hold true. of UKIP. While for much of 2012, recognisable. It is concentrated among Conservative support stands at just the Conservatives were losing voters older voters, the middle classes, and 16% among BME voters, whilst seven to Labour and UKIP in roughly equal in the most affluent areas (particularly in ten say they would vote Labour. proportions, since the turn of the in the South outside and in Much research has shown, despite year the rise in UKIP’s support has the Midlands). Conservative support many ethnic minorities holding come particularly from an increase in rises steadily by age from 26% of 18- ideological positions on some issues Conservative defections, with around 24s to 37% of the over 65s, and from such as and spend closer to the one in seven 2010 Conservative voters 25% among social grade DE (semi/ Conservative end of the spectrum, in the last few months now saying unskilled working class and those the historical image of the parties in they will support ’s party. on state benefits) to 35% among the the eyes of ethnic minorities is very UKIP supporters more generally are professional/managerial class AB. hard to shift (and of course the census driven by high levels of dissatisfaction There are, incidentally advantages shows that the country is becoming with the Coalition government and to this lead among older (and more more diverse). Although again the all the main party leaders – can the middle-class) voters as they are change since 2010 is useful to bear in Conservatives turn this around? significantly more likely to turn out mind – the Conservative share among – but in the long-term this may cause BME voters since then has not got any So what does all this mean? First of more problems. worse, but it has fallen by six points all, we could point out that Labour among white voters. suffers from the mirror image of many Our data though allows us to dig of these issues – their biggest swings into this in a little more detail. Take The Conservatives are also a party of are among young people who are least the interplay between gender and England – a distant third in Scotland likely to vote, a quarter of their support social class, for example. While our and ten points behind Labour in Wales coming from public sector workers, figures do not support the rather – and more specifically, a party of difficulties breaking into the South East crude argument than women overall the South and Midlands while being outside London. That does not take have been turning away from the around twenty points behind Labour away from the clear challenges facing Conservative Party since 2010 (there is in London and the North. Between the Conservatives to broaden their a much longer-term pattern of falling them the South East, South West, support amongst the young, urbanites, and East of England make up 41% on working classes, in the North, and

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ethnic minorities. with the public rather than any great the Conservative vote, in tandem with satisfaction with the record of the increasing its support among swing The key lesson, though, comes when current government. And history voters of all shapes and sizes, could be we look at the change since the last shows the task is even more daunting crucial. election, which actually shows a – no government for many years has pretty consistent picture across all been able to increase its share of the groups, more so than the current focus vote from one election to another. on the rise of UKIP would suggest. The Conservatives have been losing One final thought: it may be as much support among all ages, regions and worthwhile considering the where of classes – there is no single “silver the Conservative vote as much as the bullet” demographic who, if they could who. One of the key reasons behind be brought back into the fold, would the so-called ‘bias’ in the electoral solve all of the party’s problems. system towards Labour is that actually Floating voters can be found among its votes are much more efficiently all these groups, and further will have spread out that the Conservatives, as many of the same priorities as anyone Labour wins more seats on a lower else – the economy, unemployment, share of the vote because the anti- public services, immigration. While Labour vote in those constituencies the Conservatives do still hold a is more split (between the Liberal lead over Labour on some – but not Democrats and Conservatives) than the all - of these issues, this is more to do anti-Tory vote in Conservative seats. A with Labour’s difficulty reconnecting focus on maximising the efficiency of

Government Policy Performance, Public Opinion and Electoral Consequences

t the start of this year, we saw We compared these ratings to by the coalition’s mid-year review performance delivery: the number of Prof. Jane Green & Will Jennings Aand the release of its audit asylum applications and decisions, on progress. Much of the subsequent NHS inpatient waiting list times and analysis has inevitably focused on A&E waiting times, crime rates (actual what has not been achieved in the and perceived), rail performance past two and a half years. But how and complaint measures, the rate of much does delivery matter in terms unemployment and other economic of public opinion and the result of the indicators. The results for the period next election? Does the public notice, 2004-2010 are in the figure below. This and what are the effects of this for the shows significant correspondence for political goal of re-election? all issues except for % victims of crime, and also asylum (results were not We have studied public opinion significant using these data and this and how it responds to key policy time period, so are not shown here). performance indicators (in research funded by the Economic, Social and Strength of response varies by policy Research Council). area. The public responds much more strongly on the economy and We analysed survey responses to a transport than on the issues of the monthly set of questions (in the British NHS and crime. One might not Election Study) about ratings of the necessarily expect the public to be Labour and Coalition governments particularly informed or attentive to and their ability to handle a selection policy performance and outcomes on of policy issues: asylum, the NHS, specific issues, especially on issues crime, transport and the economy.

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way in which the electorate updates Strength of relationship between perceptions of competence its opinions about a government. in a policy area and performance indicators for that area Voters need to see and experience Positive correlation Negative correlation positive policy outcomes via effective 1 implementation, as well as be 0.9 reminded of them in the form of mid- 0.8 term reviews and audits. It remains to 0.7 be seen whether the continued focus Strength 0.6 on delivery will send a clear message of 0.5 to the electorate, and whether these correlation 0.4 messages will be matched in voters’ 0.3 0.2 daily experiences. The mid-term 0.1 review focused on a broad range 0 of policy areas, with the noticeable exception of transport. This is perhaps surprising given that our research suggests that transport is an area

Rate of inflation of Rate where improved performance strongly Victims of crime % Industrial sentiment Industrial Unemployment rate Unemployment links to an improvement in public Consumer sentiment Number of complaints perception of government competence. Victims of violent crime % The coalition did, however, choose to

Inpatient waiting list time (total) review its progress on transport in the Inpatient waiting list time (median) audit.

Network Network Rail Public Performance Measure The coalition will need to retain a Crime handling Economic handling NHS handling Railways handling focus on performance and competence throughout the remainder of its term, most importantly on the other than the economy where day to arise because the public receive and economy, but with attention to a day experience is less likely. However, filter information at odds with official broad spread of policy issues. Any there is clear evidence across the performance data on these issues, but perceived deterioration in handling whole range that the public updates they are very interesting, nevertheless. of policy and public services, whether its ratings of the government across a Our research suggests that the coalition caused by deficit reduction plans, by range of issues. We cannot say for sure has an electoral incentive to focus mismanagement, or by external events, whether the public gets its information on performance and delivery. Policy will have significant consequences predominantly from direct experience, achievements enable government to come the 2015 general election. social networks or from the media, promote their competence and good and we expect the answer to be all leadership, and our findings suggest three. The weaker relationships for that policy performance is a key crime and the NHS (and asylum) may

Political Lessons of the Fifth Anniversary of 2008

ive years ago, in 2008, alternative existed. Conservative Conference was Much has been written over recent dominated by the financial crisis. F weeks about the economic and The Prime Minister interrupted the financial events of September 2008. schedule to make a special statement Most of it seems badly wrong to me, inviting the government to rush though I do not wish to replay old through a special administration economic arguments here. Suffice it to regime for the banks and backing the say I regard the key moment and iconic government’s decision to bail them out. policy error not as the September 15th I circulated, aghast if not surprised, bankruptcy of Lehman’s (allowing telling everyone that would listen that that was almost the only thing such a bailout was a disaster and the Andrew Lilico policymakers got right in 2007/8), but Party should not back Brown on this. the September 7th bailout of Fannie A few listened sympathetically, but I Mae and Freddie Mac. think none felt confident any viable

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Bailing out the banks was the greatest imprudent be bailed out to be spared Cameron supported bailing out the economic folly in history, by some the consequences of their folly – banks in 2008 because he didn’t know margin, leading to effective sovereign Conservative spokesmen were silent. why he shouldn’t and he didn’t have defaults in Ireland and Spain, with the When Northern Rock suffered a bank any conception of what alternative UK only escaping (so far) by a whisker, run, the Conservative response was options there might be. That wasn’t and in much of the developed world widely seen as embarrassing and a lazy decision on the day. It was the a deeper recession than in the 1930s. naïve. product of Conservatives spending Somehow there persists a belief that the period from 2000 to 2008 trying Yet the moment passed. Some of by bailing out the banks we averted to avoid thinking about the economy us started writing blood-curdling a great economic slump. Which one at all. If he had said he didn’t favour warnings that Northern Rock was that that we avoided? The one bailing out the banks, what would was just the beginning, and that where UK GDP contracted 7%, more he have proposed instead? And how economic policy needed to be than in the 1930s? The one where would that have meshed with any of adjusted, and quick. But by mid- Greek and Spanish unemployment his previous policies? Conservatives 2008 senior Conservative politicians exceeded 25%? The one where tried to copy Labour on the economy gave every impression of feeling countries defaulted on their debts and from 2000 on, just nuancing here little had fundamentally changed. the recovery was the slowest since the and there. So naturally when it Some Conservative commentators 1870s? Bailing out the banks did not came to bailing out the banks, they complained of the “sharing the avoid economic collapse: it exacerbated tried to copy Labour again. That proceeds of growth” formulation and it, and impeded recovery, as well as wasn’t simply some abandonment of said tax cuts needed to be higher on being immoral in shielding the rich Conservative principle; it was precisely the agenda, learning the lesson of the from the consequences of their folly what a sustained policy of economic strong welcome given to Osborne’s and in imposing upon the poor and the disarmament implied. inheritance tax cut pledge of 2007 – a prudent the burden of saving the lax. pledge widely credited with seeing This also set the stage for what came But here I want to focus upon the off Gordon Brown’s plans for a later. When the Conservatives rightly politics. In 2008 the Conservatives General Election. But Cameron said started calling for spending cuts were still far behind the play. cutting was not an option – “the in 2009 and blamed Brown for the From around 2000 onwards, the cupboard is bare”, he declared in the depth and consequences of recession, Conservatives had adopted a strategy summer of 2008. Conservative commentators, Labour of submit-to-neutralise on the commentators, and the voters alike I said at the time that such a position economy. As Shadow Chancellor, noted that the Conservatives had spent was badly wrong and that with Michael Portillo embraced the most of the past decade endorsing the recession coming, later in 2008 there and Bank of England very policies that they now blamed for would have to be a temporary tax cut independence (which Conservatives recession. So although, when push as a macroeconomic policy measure. A had opposed in 1997, particularly came to shove, Brown had to take the few commentators joined my side. As because it was explicitly intended as fall as the man at the tiller when the events in financial markets spiralled a stepping stone to joining the euro). economic ship went down, no-one in September 2008, Alistair Darling In 2001 and 2005 the only material really believed the Conservatives started to float the idea of a temporary spending cuts the Conservatives would have done anything materially “Keynesian” expansion in spending. proposed were those relating to “fraud different. I was only a little less aghast at this and waste”. Shadow ministers floating idea than I had been at bailing out These, then, are the political lesson of larger spending cuts were either the US banks in September 2008 or at 2008. First, the economy is never dead hidden away (Letwin) or deselected the introduction of universal deposit as a political issue. Second, ideology (Flight). The belief was that we had in the UK in 2007. Had finds its greatest value when events are won all the main economic battles and macroeconomics so quickly abandoned uncertain, and the belief that ideology needed to be willing to move on. all the lessons of recent decades that can be abandoned is a delusional After the 2005 General Election this had seemed secure only a couple of luxury of placid times. Third, if you position came to be shouted louder years before? copy your opponents’ policies, don’t by the Cameroons. Oliver Letwin expect much political credit when they The problem Cameron and his team proclaimed that “econo-centric” go wrong. faced, in late September and early politics was over, and the debate had October 2008 was that they had no moved on to a “socio-centric” age. economic ideology, no underpinning As in the 2001-05 Parliament, the theory or bedrock economic principles. Conservatives after 2005 promised to Policy pragmatism - declaring that matched Labour’s spending plans on you favour “what works” – is all very major items (health and education) well when events are stable and the and our policy of economic reached policy required covers well-trodden its apotheosis in the declaration that ground where we have a good idea the only legitimate debate was about of what works. But when events “sharing the proceeds of growth”. are incomprehensible and we are in After Hubris, Nemesis. As Mervyn uncharted territory, what we need is King called, in the summer of not a map drawn by past travellers, 2007, for a Grand National debate but instead a clear direction and an on “moral hazard” – should the intellectual compass to guide us.

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Reviving the Conservative Family An interview with David Davis, by Luke Springthorpe

t was against a backdrop of declining The success of pressure groups like 38 Degrees membership numbers and an increasingly and Avaaz show just how important it is to Idisenfranchised membership base that reverse this trend. These highly effective I went to meet David Davis MP, former campaign groups offer us a compelling case contender for the leadership of the party. for developing a ‘two tier’ membership which would allow a predominantly online based His background stands in stark contrast to that membership to have their views heard and to David Davis MP of the current party leadership. Raised by a engage with the party in more modern ways. single mother on a Tooting council estate and educated at grammar school, Mr Davis went on How can we stop losing members to UKIP? to have a successful career in the private sector, We shouldn’t forget that UKIP’s rise is having been a Director of Tate & Lyle. Here are largely down to people being alienated from his thoughts on the party’s membership crisis. politics, a well-established trend which has With party membership down to 134,000 from a been worsening for some time. That is why peak of 3 million, what do you think has caused UKIP’s success isn’t only a problem for the this? Conservatives, something which has been borne out the by-election in Eastleigh and the Currently, the Coalition is the most obvious recent local elections. cause for dissatisfaction in the party. Although I believed at the time - and still believe - that the Ultimately, the Conservative Party needs to Coalition Agreement was absolutely necessary, pick up the voters that used to be ours under it is clear that the Conservative Party must do Thatcher but who are now being spoken for better at forging its own identity outside of the by UKIP on issues that matter to them, and coalition with the Liberal Democrats. who feel that UKIP offers ‘common sense’ policies. It’s a question of having appeal on Ultimately, however, the problem of decreasing the council estates - the voters who UKIP are membership is not a new one. Indeed, it’s increasingly effective at appealing to. These something I researched during my time as a voters are typically aspirational Conservatives Bow grouper during Ted Heath’s government, who seek class mobility and want to get out when we were concerned about the same and better themselves. It is this group that problem. There are now, however, challenges the Conservative party simply must to do that are either unique or have become more better with if we are to re-build our base of acute at the present time. supporters. For one, the party needs to get far better at How will we win in 2015? retaining and engaging an active membership. This means actually understanding and I am a right wing, One Nation Conservative. defining the role of a membership based party I know that the ideal of a small state which in the twenty-first century. Whilst this still encourages the creation and dispersion of means getting out and knocking on doors, wealth still has huge appeal and I believe it is a we need to do better as a party at having a mix of policies shaped in this way that can win two way conversation between the grassroots in 2015. membership on the one hand and the The key policies that we need to sharpen and leadership and professional management of the hammer home in the run up to the election are party on the other. broadly as follows: The party conference shows just how much • Offer a strong mix of free market policies this conversation has broken down. Members that deliver lower taxes, less regulation and no longer have the opportunity to interact more free trade to convince the electorate and make speeches in the main conference that we are the party of economic growth. hall. Whereas conference used to be an Needless to say, evidence of our pro-growth exciting occasion that brought us together credentials will need to be felt by 2015. and reinforced that sense of the Conservative family, it is now a much more tame affair with • We need to have a robust policy on few genuine opportunities for engagement immigration, which is essential to alleviate beyond the fringe meetings. pres-sure on our public services and

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communities in those parts of the dividing lines between us and the I do believe that victory in 2015 is UK which are dis-proportionately Liberal Democrats. That is a process possible, but only if we stand as affected. that must begin now. We must re- Conservatives on a truly conservative emphasise our traditional conservative platform. • Maintain our emphasis on steering values to an electorate which all aspects of welfare policy towards understands that the future of the getting peo-ple back in to work West, not just the UK, is problematic. wherever possible. Voters are largely convinced by • Our base also wants to hear more the argument that lower taxes, less about law & order, whilst ensuring regulation and free trade are crucial that the police are respectable once in maintain living standards and again. having a competitive economy. It’s our job to convince them that those are • Beyond this, restoring the place of Conservative values. grammar schools as a central tenet of our educa-tion system and reviving We need to be bold in meeting that our stock of council housing will challenge. In the end, this may require be popular policies as well as good us to withdraw from the European policies. Union whilst seeking to remain as a member of the European Economic All of this is underpinned by a long Area and as signatory to other bilateral standing attitude that is part of the deals where it is in our interest. This mind-set of almost every Tory voter: should be a decision driven by the self-reliance and a willingness to ‘do desire to make Britain more competitive, your bit’. however, and not simply carried out Furthermore, winning in 2015 will as a knee jerk plan it will kill off UKIP, come down to drawing very clear which it would not achieve. Conservatives and party membership

onservative activists and increasing realisation that it is equally bad for can be forgiven for sometimes feeling the recipients themselves. Voters are rightly Cthat we, as a party, are like a ship with stalwart in their insistence that this country listless sails stuck in the Doldrums. We are have an adequate safety net for when things in Government but, because of the Coalition, go wrong. But a benefits system that breeds we are not the Government. It often feels like dependency can eat away at the spirit of a we have to put a great deal of pressure on family and can destroy the natural inclination the front bench to do things which should be towards self-sufficiency. instinctively Conservative, or – as in the case has been a trailblazing radical of same-sex civil marriage – to prevent them in education. The Free Schools programme Sir Edward Leigh MP from doing things which completely grate has radically decentralised education and against the Conservative grain. Pessimistic handed power to parents, while the ongoing feelings regarding the next general election are transformation of schools into academies widespread, but not necessarily justified. gives heads and educators the autonomy they I am convinced that this government – coalition require to incorporate the best practices of the though it is – has a number of solid strengths independent schools Britain is famous for. which it can build upon when we next seek the Labour have basically conceded the utility mandate from voters. Steady progress has been and rightfulness of these policies, while made across a range of policy areas. contradictorily saying they won’t create any more free schools or academies should they ’s reforms to welfare have gain power. I think we should go even further, struck a chord with voters tired of endlessly allowing heads to hire and fire whichever dishing out benefits. It’s obvious not good teachers they like, and giving them more for the public purse, but there has been an powers to increase the quality of teaching and

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the richness of the school experience. The flight of some core Tory voters constituents on a number of issues to UKIP is not just about Europe, but the embarrassment of “u-turns” has completely however. There is a feeling of could easily be avoided in the future if revitalised the Foreign & alienation from politics that is the front bench and ministerial teams Commonwealth Office and instilled compounded when, for example, the adopt a more collaborative approach in it a new institutional confidence. Government seeks to rush through with the backbenchers and the party as Under New Labour, it often felt that a programme of drastic radical a whole. the role of Foreign Secretary was just social change like same-sex civil a very senior cabinet post to be doled The resulting tapestry of forthright marriage. Such an assault on one out to whichever parliamentary bigwig policies must reflect grassroots opinion of the fundamental institutions of needed to be appeased. Hague made and offer voters a platform to vote for society is precisely the kind of action clear from his first day on the job that is genuinely different from Labour many voters believe the Conservative that Foreign Secretary was a role he and the Liberal Democrats. This party was designed to prevent and would take seriously, and his tenure wouldn’t just decrease the alienation frustrate. To see such policies enacted in office has proved it. While Labour which undermines parliamentary under our own government leaves shut missions and was happier to leave democracy, but might actually help many voters wondering why they relations on multilateral and European win a general election, too. Clear, bother, and questioning the decades levels, under a Conservative Foreign confident leadership in alliance with of commitment they’ve made to the Secretary the is the grassroots will pave the way for a organisation. opening new embassies and building Tory victory in 2015. stronger ties with our innumerable Even if one agrees with the radical Sir Edward Leigh has been a Member friends abroad. principles behind same-sex civil of Parliament for over 30 years and was marriage, it is undeniable that this Closer to home, the recent decision knighted this year for service to public specific bill is very poorly drafted to strengthen the powers of local and political life. and will open the floodgates to a government to refuse planning wide variety of legal challenges permission for wind turbines is a and court cases. One of the central perfect example of the willingness purposes of parliamentary scrutiny is of this Government to listen to the to go through legislation to seek out concerns of the country and respond potential problems and unintended accordingly. But these successes have consequences that may arise should been undersold to the public and to the bills be passed and to amend the bill press, and have been overshadowed by to prevent future quandaries and to a multiplicity of other glaring factors. prevent legal problem arising. Because To put it bluntly: voters are worried of the cultural impetus of this bill, it about the . While has been subjected to only the faintest UKIP is not a single issue party, hint of scrutiny for fear that pointing European policy is clearly the out its numerous legal flaws will be cause celebre of the Faragists. We misinterpreted as either opposition to Conservatives came top of the poll at the bill or, more ludicrously, outright the European elections in 2009, but a homophobia. recent opinion survey put UKIP on top The bill should be dropped, but if the with a 4% lead over Labour, and our Government are hell-bent on forcing it party relegated to third. This must not through, then they at least should be go unnoticed or ignored at CCHQ. so liberal-minded enough as to include The Prime Minister has made some explicit protections for conscientious bold and just moves on the European objectors, especially with regard to free issue. He has committed this party to expression and employment. an in/out referendum on the EU, but This is not to say that the party should why are we waiting until 2017? The be a narrow group of only pro- Congress of Vienna took nine months, traditional marriage people or only and the Treaty of Versailles was pro-same-sex civil marriage people; negotiated in just six. As a party, we of only Eurocentralists people or need to be debating what our European only national-sovereigntists; of only endgame is, both in terms of our ideal, social traditionalists or only social and what we think is achievable. Once liberals. The Conservative party was we know that, we must begin the hard once an alliance of numerous interests work of diplomacy as soon as possible, united in pursuit of common goals, building alliances with whichever but to return to that model we need governments in Europe are committed a leadership that balances clarity to a rebalancing of powers. Whatever with inclusiveness in order to move the situation, we need a clear idea of forward. We’ve seen the front bench what the European Union is and ought has actually been quite sensible in to be, moving beyond the unrealistic responding to the alarum raised and undemocratic permanent by backbenchers on behalf of their revolution of “ever closer union”.

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What to do about declining Party membership

y mother grew up in a country in an impressive swing, but he didn't win a which more men toiled in factories, majority and the outcome of the last election Mfewer women worked in the labour was as much a protest against Labour as an market, most couples were married, homosexu- endorsement of our Party. Early on in the ality was illegal, nearly everyone was white, leadership campaign that he won, Cameron let television scarcely existed, the national anthem it be known that he considered himself "the heir was played in cinemas, one of the world's two to Blair". A key to the latter's style of leadership biggest powers was committed to communist was using his own Party as a whipping-boy to ideology - and nearly three million people were win credibility with those who didn't support Paul Goodman members of the Conservative or Labour parties it. My son is growing up in one in which the old Cameron's present charm offensive towards steel yards or coal fields no longer exist, most Tory MPs, of which the backing of James women work (at least part-time), married Wharton's EU referendum bill is a part, is a couples are now a minority of households, one result of him having tested this Blairite mode in five people will be ethnic minority members of leadership to destruction. The tactics which by 2050, people communicate at the touch of a worked so well for Blair in 1997 have worked button through social media, communism has less well for the Conservative leadership some collapsed outside North Korea and Cuba - and 15 years later. Under Cameron, the Party has under 400,000 people are members of the two allowed a gap to open up on its right which main parties. Nigel Farage's party is trying to fill. In other words, the way we live now is UKIP is essentially a single issue party of rendering political parties out of date. This isn't protest against the entire governing class, because people are less interested in politics but Farage is presenting it to disillusioned than before. On the contrary, they are as caught Conservatives as "the Tories you used to vote up than ever - as the huge turnouts for the anti- for" - with his support for grammar schools and war and pro-countryside marches during opposition to same sex marriage. It is bucking the New Labour years showed. In individualist the falling membership trend, and probably has modern Britain, they are far more likely to join about 30,000 members: the gap between this single-issue campaigns than political parties figure and the Conservative Party's 130,000 or that represent antiquated class interests. so is large but not unbridgeable. In the 1950s, when my mother was a young What could fill it isn't so much the growth woman, the Conservatives were the party of of UKIP, which has a natural ceiling and is capital and Labour the party of, well, labour vulnerable to the party's intrinsic weaknesses (though a third of the manual working class under first past the post, as the further fall voted Tory, and Labour had more than its in Tory membership as death and declining share of middle-class intellectuals). The fall of renewals take their toll. The disappointing the Soviet Union gave Tony Blair the chance by-election result in Eastleigh, in which MPs to blur those old class distinctions: under his were parachuted into a seat with a defunct local leadership, Labour appeased the City and Association, was a warning of things to come: abandoned the workers - opening Britain up to parties that have no presence on the ground new waves of immigration. won't win or hold seats. With big business at ease with the new In short, what once called corporatism and the politically correct codes uber-modernisation, with its doctrine of taking that govern it, the old alliances which once on one's own supporters, is exhausted. What's made the Conservatives the natural party of left is frighteningly close to being an empty government broke down. We haven't won an shell. I am a member of the Party. On paper, election for over 20 years. At a Parliamentary this should mean that I have some say in its level, we scarcely exist in Scotland. Our profile and policies. In practice, it means that condition is little better in the urban North and I pay a minimum of £25, and in return receive Midlands, in which we hold only 20 out of 124 letters from Cameron asking for more money. urban seats. Vote distribution makes winning a I have no formal say in policy-making. majority almost impossible. Conference attendance is expensive: indeed, David Cameron steered us back to office on conference is now a trade fair for lobby groups

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rather than an occasion for Party members. I may have little say in the selection of my local Conservative Parliamentary candidate. The rules for choosing candidates for the European Parliament are bewilderingly variable. Senior MPs are discouraged from speaking at events organised by Associations in seats we hold. This is rather like Tesco refusing to send senior managers to stores based in profitable areas. In short, this model is no longer sustainable. It is probably impossible to reverse the slide in membership, but it must be possible to raise the rate of participation. The news is not all bad. Some local Associations have bucked the trend in falling numbers. 's Team 2015 initiative points the way to a possible future outside the present Association structure. If David Cameron is Prime Minister after 2015, there is likely to be a referendum on Britain's EU membership two years later. Over the same period, we need to ask ourselves some hard questions about the Party's future. Should membership be for a minimal cost - or even free? Should the present Association structure be ended or adapted? Should the Party build on Shapps's initiative, and recruit nationally from the 800,000 people online who identify as conservatives? Should such supporters, rather than members, select candidates? Is the Party's structural future one of organising overlapping campaign groups, rather than operating as a single central entity? Should Party Conference have a formal role in policy-making, and should CCHQ be more independent of the leadership, allowing for better long-term campaign planning? Indeed, should the Chairman, be an elected post? If not, should some of his or her deputies? I don't know the answer to these questions yet, but am certain that they are in the right territory. The Conservative Party is the oldest, and arguably the most successful, political party in the world. It has survived because of its ability to adapt - reinventing itself time and again when the chances of its flourishing seemed long. Mass membership may be dead. But there's no intrinsic reason why the Party shouldn't be alive and well in the era of my grandchildren. Paul Goodman is executive editor of ConservativeHome. He was the Conservative MP for Wycombe between 2001 and 2010.

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Our Expats are Ex citizens: The lost Conservative abroad

he Labour Party's statements in August to its expat citizens or the accuracy of its by on migration, delivered by shadow migration figures. immigration minister , were Who Wrote me? T At the last general election, only 564 votes were quite right. Bryant was correct to say that the received from British military personnel in United Kingdom "has no idea where its citizens Afghanistan although nearly 10,000 were able are". But unsurprisingly it is a problem that to vote. Few citizens within the UK deserve permeated under the last Labour Government. greater support and a greater say. Migration and expat voting rights are It is when we compare to our western inexorably linked. If citizens have the incentive neighbours that the UK system begins to look Ben Harris-Quinney to vote, they are likely to register their status most decrepit and outdated. of residence as well. Labour had a significant vested interest in changing the rules on The largest Polish voting booth in the world migration and ex-pat voting. It did not want is at the Polish Embassy in London. At a Bow to let out a true reflection of the vast numbers Group event last year, former Australian Prime of Brits that left the UK during the Blair years Minister John Howard said he was "particularly - compared to the amount of immigrants that glad to be in London, Australia's largest single came in. The party also knew that ex-pats have constituency". The has always a tendency to vote Conservative with a 65 per enshrined that by virtue of being granted US cent bias. citizenship: "Forever an American and forever an interest in the country of your birth." These The Representation of the People's Act, nations have a far better idea of where their amended under the Blair government, states citizens are and who is leaving, and entering, that citizens should not be required or even their countries on a permanent or semi- prompted to register with their local consulate permanent basis. upon taking up full or part time residence abroad. The act also states that no British citizen The French and Italians have several who has lived abroad for more than 15 years dedicated seats in their parliaments for ex- may vote or stand in UK elections. pat representation and on this issue in 2010 Dominic Greive, now Attorney General, gave The first result of this is that it is not possible the following view: "The French attitude is to obtain accurate net migration figures, or that their foreign citizens have something to accurate figures on how many Brits live abroad, contribute, the British have been far-more mean or how many live in any particular country. minded and indeed short sighted. We might The estimates run from five to 15 million want to consider an overseas representation expats, who are currently British citizens system, similar to and ." or could apply for UK citizenship. This is too considerable a percentage of our overall The often promoted view of the UK resident citizenry for a responsible government to lose abroad as a lager swilling yob or leathery track of. costa criminal has never been a true depiction of our ex-pat citizenry; most are excellent The second outcome is that even for those ambassadors for Britain and British interests. people who fall within the 15-year rule; the Many Brits still retire abroad in the quest system for voting from abroad is so obtuse - for the good life in twilight years and the unaided by our consulates - that less than 5 per vast majority do so after having contributed cent do. And, as a result, these people remain considerably to the UK economy - and society. off the national migration statistics radar. The increasing trend in the expat community is, Citizens that do endeavour to contact their however, towards those pursuing business and consulate or UK constituency of prior residence professional interests abroad. will be sent a postal vote, which in most cases they are given seldom enough time to process Not only is it central to the country's ability - less than a week to complete the form in most to police its boarders and record accurate cases. migration statistics - it is fundamental to our democracy and identity as a nation to proudly While the coalition government is not guilty grant freedom, protection and representation to of creating this indefensible system, it has our citizens everywhere; and fundamental to a neglectfully continued with Labour's view citizen's identity to proudly accept it. that a nation that once commanded a vast global Empire, and continues to trade and do We fail to acknowledge at our peril that our business with great strength and relevance greatest allies abroad, are us. internationally, should pay little to no regard

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The Aspiration Nation

ack in March of this year, vote. Chancellor George Osborne But if UKIP are taking the protest rose in the House of Commons B vote, do Conservatives never stop to to deliver his annual budget. Over ask themselves what it is the people the next 45 minutes or so, he used the are protesting about? Not austerity – word “aspiration” eleven times (in polls have shown that the public has 2011 it was only used twice), and three accepted the need for austerity. of those utterances were paired with the word ‘nation’. As he delivered the Less than a month after that budget Donna Edmunds punch line of his speech, commentators was read, the right wing movement across the political spectrum groaned was brought together on the saddest of inwardly; it seemed clear that days: the funeral of Baroness Thatcher. ‘aspiration nation’ was going to be The Bow Group, in conjunction with a phrase we were all going to grow The Freedom Association, organised a steadily sick of. And yet, since then, tribute event for all those who wanted nothing. The ‘Aspiration Nation’ seems to show their love and admiration for to have quietly expired. the Great Lady. It was a resounding success. Speakers from across the There can be no-one who regrets conservative spectrum lined up to talk the speedy demise of this particular about their fondness for Thatcher and rhetorical flourish, but it is a shame, what she stood for. Tories and Kippers both for Conservatives and for the stood side by side in bestowing that country at large, that the idea of greatest of political honours: they came aspiration seems also to have been together to share with each other the dropped. In fact, the only group that many ways in which she changed their has gained by Osborne’s inability or lives for the better. For a politician, unwillingness to see this particular there can surely be no higher ambition. theme through is UKIP, as that party is happily hoovering up the aspirational Thatcher was a great leader for many vote. reasons. Her forthrightness and her self-belief spring to mind, but also her Writing a reaction to the budget for instinctive understanding of what it is Conservative Home at the time, I people want. Put simply: they want to commented get on in life. “Those of us interested in politics have To illustrate, let me quote from the been lamenting for years that voter popular TV series Game of Thrones. turnout at the ballot box is falling year A young girl, Daenarys Targeryan, is on year. We blame apathy, a lack of conversing with her companion Ser education, an increasing obsession Jorah Mormont. She believes that the with gadgetry and entertainment, a people her family once ruled over ‘dumbing down’ of the population. will rise up in support of her brother The cause is none of those. Rather Viserys’ claim to the throne upon his the electorate are increasingly aware return, and remarks that “the common that politicians are talking to, and people are waiting for him. Magister acting in reference to each other only. Illyrio says they are sewing dragon If politicians show no interest in the banners and praying for Viserys to electorate, why should the electorate return from across the narrow sea to show any interest in politicians?” free them.” Mormont replies “The Since crossing from the Conservatives common people pray for rain, healthy to UKIP last January, I have been children, and a summer that never struck by the level of animosity ends. It is no matter to them if the displayed by some in the Conservative high lords play their game of thrones, party towards UKIP – it far outstrips so long as they are left in peace. They the dislike shown from any other never are.” quarter. UKIP is full of clowns and A modern interpretation might go closet racists, its manifesto is non- something like: existent or contradictory or both, and, of course, that harshest of political Cameron: “My pollsters tell me that slurs, it’s only picking up the protest the people are clamouring for gay

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marriage and wind farms as symbols by Thatcher’s rule, as many of them the heir to a Baronetcy need to grasp of our enlightened society” seem to believe, but because they have aspiration as a concept? If that is the failed to grasp fully the key element to case, he needs to learn from those Thatcherite advisor: “The people want : aspiration. in his party who do understand disposable income after the bills are aspiration, many of which have paid, and a decent education for their Crucially, aspiration can’t simply be a first-hand experience of the concept, children. They care not for liberal sound bite. Osborne may be a master because aspiration needs to be at tokenism.” tactician when it comes to besting the very centre of every policy this Miliband and the Labour Party, but Would Thatcher have joined UKIP government has. The future of the aspiration can’t simply be a political had her career played out within this Conservative Party, and the future of grenade to be detonated when it suits generation? It’s an impossible question the country, depends upon it. the Westminster battlefield. The British to answer as she was so much of her people are bright enough to know own time. But it is inconceivable that when a politician is talking to them Thatcher ever needed an advisor to (a trait they recognise in Farage), and tell her what the British public wanted. when politicians are merely talking She knew full well what the people’s or more usually bickering amongst aspirations were, having grown up in a themselves. community built upon small business commerce and traditional values. More Perhaps ‘Aspiration Nation’ was importantly, she never judged people quietly dropped because, having on their aspirations. Her job was only used the sound bite, Osborne realised to create the opportunity for people to that he doesn’t actually know what better their own lives in whichever way it means. Let’s face it, why would they wish, and she did it admirably. So if the UKIP vote is a protest vote, it is the protest of people who feel that the opportunity to better their lives as been diminished, and who can blame them for that? Social mobility is at its lowest for decades, and we are once again ruled by Old Etonians. If the Conservatives are struggling to gain a foothold in the polls, it is not because the party has been tarnished

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Why reforming our organisation is crucial to long-term electoral success seats in the big northern cities of principles. First, identity: associations Liverpool, Manchester and Newcastle. should cover areas that people identify By 2010, despite a prolonged period with. Second, scale: associations of an incredibly unpopular Labour should cover a large enough area to Government, we didn’t have a single sustain a viable organisation with a Council seat in any of those cities. headquarters and some professional What strength we have left tends to be support. Third, permanence: if in safe Conservative seats and it is very possible, we want to avoid having difficult to motivate activists in these to re-organise ourselves every time Gavin Barwell MP areas to go and campaign elsewhere constituency boundaries change. where their efforts might have some In Croydon, we’ve merged the three impact on the number of Conservative Associations within the borough MPs elected to Parliament. ost of the debate about what to form the Croydon Conservative the Conservative Party Second, because the central Federation. This passes the identity Mneeds to do to win an overall organisation of the Party is under test: no-one identifies with the majority at future General Elections the control of the Leader of the Party constituency boundaries; they’re from focuses on policy and message - (the Hague reforms of 1998 set up a a place called Croydon. It passes the and rightly so: even without an Board of the Party with significant scale test: we have an office and can organisation on the ground, parties representation from the voluntary afford to employ several staff. And with an attractive message can achieve party, but this Board is chaired by it passes the permanence test - the success. the Chairman of the Party who is constituency boundaries may change, But organisation does matter. In appointed by the leader so in practice but the boundaries of Croydon haven’t marginal seats, it can make the the leadership still has control), our changed for over 50 years. organisational focus is always on the difference between victory and defeat. And strange though it may sound, this next General Election to the exclusion Unfortunately, our organisation is not organisational shift has led to a change of all else. what it used to be. in behaviour. We no longer think To a degree this is a problem that all We need to address this. If we aspire of ourselves as ‘Croydon Central’, three parties share - fewer and fewer to be a genuine ‘One Nation’ party, ‘Croydon North’ and ‘Croydon South’ people are choosing to join political we cannot be indifferent to there but as ‘Croydon Conservatives’. parties. However, the way in which we being parts of the country where the When there are Council elections, we have historically organised ourselves Conservative Party has no footprint. go and work in the marginal wards has compounded that problem in two The lack of a Conservative presence in whether they are in ‘our’ constituency ways. northern cities has a knock-on impact or another part of the borough. When on marginal seats in the suburbs - there’s a General Election, everyone First, because we still generally regional and local media tend to be works in my seat because it is the organise on a constituency-by- based in city centres and if they don’t only one of the three that’s marginal. constituency basis (with each see a Conservative presence it affects Supporters attend fundraising events constituency having its own the coverage they give us. right across the borough, not just those Conservative Association which is in ‘their’ constituency. largely left to get on with things) So what do we need to do? rather than pooling resources across Federation isn’t the only solution, First, the national party needs to a wider area, the general decline in however. In Gloucestershire, the designate some long-term resources membership has been felt most in safe six associations have kept their to this project. Make sure we have Labour seats and Conservative/Labour independence but come together candidates for the seats concerned marginals, particularly those in parts to fund a state-of-the-art county selected well before the next election. of the country that are more difficult campaign centre. In other parts of Identify the council wards we are territory for us. In many Conservative/ the country, associations have kept going to start in and try to build up Labour marginals, our membership their own offices but share an agent ward by ward. is so small that it is difficult to raise who works between these offices or funds for campaigning or find enough Second, we need to think about a safe Conservative-held seat pays people to deliver our literature. how we organise as a party. This for professional cover in a nearby Elsewhere in some safe Labour seats, can’t come from the top because the marginal. What matters is not the we have simply ceased to exist. solution will be different in different detailed structure but the principle that Back in 1983, we had parliamentary areas. We should be guided by three we concentrate the resources - both

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financial and human - that we have in constituency boundaries; they’re from the country, Associations have kept the seats that will determine whether a place called Croydon. It passes the their own offices but share an agent or not we win elections. scale test: we have an office and can who works between these offices or afford to employ several staff. And a safe Conservative-held seat pays Third, we need to involve more people it passes the permanence test - the for professional cover in a nearby in what the party is doing without constituency boundaries may change, marginal. What matters is not the them having to be paid-up members. but the boundaries of Croydon haven’t detailed structure but the principle that Why not invite members of the public changed for over 50 years. we concentrate the resources - both to political discussion meetings? Why financial and human - that we have in not involve Conservative supporters in And strange though it may sound, this the seats that will determine whether the process of selecting our candidates? organisational shift has led to a change or not we win elections. in behaviour. We no longer think These are structural reforms that of ourselves as ‘Croydon Central’, Third, we need to involve more people we need to implement to ensure we ‘Croydon North’ and ‘Croydon South’ in what the Party is doing without are in a position to elect majority but as ‘Croydon Conservatives’. them having to be paid-up members. Conservative Governments in the When there are Council elections, we Why not invite members of the public future. We can’t afford to ignore the go and work in the marginal wards to political discussion meetings? Why decline in our organisation any longer. whether they are in ‘our’ constituency not involve Conservative supporters in Alongside the strategy Lynton Crosby or another part of the borough. When the process of selecting our candidates? is developing to win the next election, there’s a General Election, everyone we need to develop a long-term plan These are structural reforms that works in my seat because it is the to rebuild our party - and grassroots we need to implement to ensure we only one of the three that’s marginal. activists have a key role to play in that are in a position to elect majority Supporters attend fundraising events work. Conservative Governments in the right across the borough, not just those future. We can’t afford to ignore the to re-organise ourselves every time in ‘their’ constituency. decline in our organisation any longer. constituency boundaries change. Federation isn’t the only solution, Alongside the strategy Lynton Crosby In Croydon, we’ve merged the three however. In Gloucestershire, the is developing to win the next Election, Associations within the borough six Associations have kept their we need to develop a long-term plan to form the Croydon Conservative independence but come together to rebuild our Party and grassroots Federation. This passes the identity to fund a state-of-the-art county activists have a key role to play in that test: no-one identifies with the campaign centre. In other parts of work.

How to revive party membership

or the past sixty years, party one brick in the wall - for the structure membership has been falling at a that the Conservative Party is built on Frecord rate. For the Conservative as a membership organisation to give Party, membership has fallen by almost way. Every member counts and makes 2.5 million, leaving us with little more a contribution in some way. than 134,000 members (or 174,000 The wise man built his house upon if you include unpaid supporters & the rocks and not the sand. To apply friends). It is very easy to become this principle to reviving party complacent when in government and membership, we need to strengthen Sarah-Jane Sewell there exists a tendency to presume that the foundations - the grassroots of the every member will come out and give voluntary party. I believe that many their all campaigning. members have come to find that the If, however, you don’t look after the party has become far too centralised in pennies, you certainly won’t be able to a central office. They feel like they no look after the pounds, as the old adage longer really have a true say in how goes. I’ll always remember from a very the party is run, and that the direction young age my mother telling me that of the party line is a monologue one penny will lead to a million, and rather than a discussion. The result the same can be said for membership. we see today is that more often than You only have to lose one member - not, there is a lack of transparency

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and trust between the professional there’s one thing we are especially and encourage an active involvement and the voluntary party. Repairing good at, it is the ability to pull together from their members. This is something this relationship is crucial and needs in times of crisis. Right now we are in the party should learn from. To this to be built on a foundation of trust, a time of crisis, economically, socially end, members and potential members understanding and respect for the and politically. The trust in the system need a firm focus and a clear vision to work done at their respective levels. that we know is non-existent for many unite behind. In the UK, the fight is no people with successive scandals and longer a fight between the old left and Standing in the way of a cordial open bickering is tainting the British right like it has been in decade’s past - relationship at present is often a system and our party’s reputation. it’s a fight for supporting hard working degree of internal politicking that risks What’s more, people often feel power individuals and families and between ruining the campaigning structure is remote and distant from them. More big government and small government. of the party. Egos are something that power needs to be devolved into the Our debate needs to reflect this will always exist, but squabbling lifeblood of the party before there is changed reality. amongst ourselves will not win nothing left to nurture. It isn’t going us a Conservative majority at the There also needs to be a clear structure to be easy, but we just need to keep next general election. To revive the showing where ideology begins and trying. membership we need to realise that ends. Many members have adopted a we are one party and ultimately we all Furthermore, I believe that members more libertarian stance and struggle want to win the next general election. It need to be given a proper reason to be to perhaps understand the social doesn’t matter what position one may members which means seeing benefits conservatism adopted by the party in hold, every member is essential, no of being a party member. We need to the past, and which many members single person is more important than be acutely aware of the reality that still stand by today. It is impossible another. Associations are too often loyalty to one’s party is no longer a to please everyone but a common being destroyed by internal bickering priority for a lot of people. There are so ground needs to be found in the broad and it’s imperative that this stops. It many other options for participating ideological church that manifests puts off new members and drives new in politics, including pressure groups, within the Conservative Party. and old alike away, as well as diverting single issue campaigns, protests and We have a great party, in a great focus away from the local issues that social media. The RSPB has more country but we can make it better matter to ordinary people. We need to members than the Conservatives, and we can only do that by working recognise that it’s not about agreeing Labour and the Liberal Democrats put together as individuals bringing with each other all the time - if that together. together all of our talents internally. I were the case there would be no Why is this? Well, they give their for one have every confidence that the progress and no fresh ideas - it’s about members a reason to renew and give a grassroots of the party are standing cooperation. common cause to unite behind. What is waiting and ready to do just that. Ultimately, however, our party’s more, organisations such as 38 Degrees membership is worth nurturing. If are responsive to their membership

Boris Johnson and the loss to politics of Merry England

aymond Chandler once said the art or craft of fiction takes just a by a writer who is afraid to little away from his need or desire to Andrew Gimson Roverreach himself is as useless write at all. In the end he knows all the as a general who is afraid to be wrong. tricks and has nothing to say.” The maxim also applies to politics. I Chandler could be describing the do not mean that politicians should predicament of the professional despise the calculation of risk, or scorn politician: the careerist who learns all the technical knowledge which gives a the tricks of the trade, but ends up with chosen course of action the best chance nothing to say, and various dishonest of success. ways of not saying it. Knowledge of But technical mastery is nothing like technique becomes a substitute for enough. For as Chandler goes on to knowing and being able to explain say: “Everything a writer learns about to people why one is in politics at all.

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Elections degenerate into marketing So how does Boris manage to reach out Such earthiness is not part of normal campaigns between rival “brands”, not just to lost Conservatives, but to political discourse, but since Chaucer it a term suggestive of competition lost Lib Dem and Labour supporters? has been part of our literature and our between breakfast cereals. The public He does it in part by subverting, or nation. Boris was expressing an idea of senses that it is being manipulated appearing to subvert, the cautious, Englishness, or of Britishness, which by technicians who possess a priggish, self-righteous and mechanical Puritans have striven for hundreds of sophisticated understanding of opinion style of politics which so many years to suppress. Millions of people polls, but have ceased to believe in politicians consider to be the only way are turned off a politics which seems to anything else. Voters feel insulted by to do things. Boris speaks for Merry have been reduced to a joyless series of this kind of treatment, and protest England. He is the lord of misrule self-denying injunctions. Boris, it will against it by refusing to vote. who disrupts the decorous solemnities be objected, is inimitable: no one can of the professionals who believe do the life-affirming stuff in the way he So the question this series of articles themselves to be in charge. can. But he also exemplifies a cavalier seeks to address, of how to win back style of politics which reaches lost “the lost Conservative”, is part of a Not that Boris is unprofessional. Conservatives, and other lost souls, by much wider problem of how to re- He has employed some of the best embracing pleasure instead of denying establish contact with millions of voters professionals in the business: the it. who have become disgusted by the names of Lynton Crosby, Guto Harri whole trade of politics: its bogusness, and the late Sir Simon Milton leap to Andrew Gimson is a contributing its bland tedium and the anxiety of its mind. If he is convinced that it is in his editor to ConservativeHome and the author of “Boris – the Rise of Boris practitioners, even as they claim in a interest, he is able for months at a time Johnson”, of which an updated edition pious tone to say something of high to restrict his natural inclination to tell was published last year by Simon and seriousness, to avoid upsetting anyone. jokes. His articles almost always say Schuster. These problems cannot be solved by an something, camouflaged though it may ever more sophisticated application of be by entertaining, sub-Wodehousian the techniques of persuasion, skillfully essays in autobiography. applied to winning back different Boris remembers, even in his most segments of the electorate. statesmanlike moments, that the This brings me to Boris. I avoided average man or woman craves starting with him because I did not pleasure. We cannot bear too much wish to imply that he is the answer seriousness. We are grateful to a to everything. When I wrote my politician who recognises this, and is biography of him, I was at pains to prepared to take the risk of making include the evidence needed to make a fool of himself. For Boris, most the case against him as well the case unusually, is prepared to enjoy jokes at for. his own expense, such as the absurdity of being stuck on what was known in But on the question of how to build a my youth as an aerial runway. relationship with the British public, his example is suggestive. As early as This appeal to Merry England, his February 2007, Lord Ashcroft delivered readiness to make himself vulnerable a presentation at Conservative and to indulge our appreciation of headquarters in which he summarised bawdy, slapstick humour, is an affront the results of private polling carried to people who imagine that politics out for the party. This showed that must always be conducted in a solemn outside the present leadership (David tone of voice. But that in turn makes Cameron had taken over at the end of Boris more appealing to those who 2005) there were two people the public yearn for the conventional pieties to associated with the Tories. Up came be mocked. Here is a politician who pictures of , looking has connected with middle England imperious, and of Boris Johnson, eating by becoming a brilliant anti-politician. a bun. His finest hour on the world stage, when he became the voice of the Recent polling by Lord Ashcroft, London Olympics, was achieved not which can be read on his website, just because before the games even Lord Ashcroft Polls, confirms that began he was enthusiastic about Boris (named correctly by 91 per cent them (though unlike more pessimistic of respondents) is the second most politicians and journalists, he certainly recognisable politician in the country was), but because he was prepared, after David Cameron (named correctly while saying thank you for them in by 94 per cent). Boris won the London front of Buckingham Palace, to talk mayoral elections of 2008 and 2012 by about the “paroxysms of tears and joy" persuading substantial numbers of they had produced “on the sofas of Lib Dem and Labour voters to support Britain”, so that they had “probably him. It is hard to think of another Tory not only inspired a generation but who could have done this. helped to create one as well".

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he most common objection to a CON- Parliament. This could be our last chance in UKIP pact is that neither David Cameron a generation – possibly [itals] ever [itals] – to Tnor Nigel Farage will touch it. So why extract ourselves from the European superstate. waste time discussing it? Is the prospect of David Cameron staying on as Prime Minister really so awful that you’re But a pact doesn’t need to be endorsed by the willing to throw that chance away? I know leaders of either party to work. What I have Cameron gave a “cast-iron guarantee” once in mind is something bottom-up rather than before, but this time round he’s made a promise top-down. A unite-the-right website set up by he can’t break without destroying his own members of both parties that tells people who party. Toby Young they should vote for in their constituency to keep out Labour and the Lib Dems. There’s a longer answer, too, which has to do with all the other things we agree about. Take Eastleigh, for instance, a seat currently Supporters of both parties believe in low taxes, held by the Lib Dems. UKIP came second at the controlled immigration, freedom of speech, 2012 by-election, so the advice would be to vote school choice, a welfare cap… the list goes on. for in Eastleigh because she’s the The LibLabCon rhetoric belies the fact that candidate best placed to defeat the incumbent. we’re all, essentially, members of the same Sceptics will say this example is misleading. In family. We’re all conservatives with a small “c”, the majority of constituencies, the advice will even those UKIP supporters who voted Labour be to vote Conservative, either because there’s in the past. Whatever your feelings about a sitting Tory MP or because the Conservatives the present leader of the Conservative Party, came second in that seat in 2010. Why should surely a Cameron-led government, committed UKIP supporters enter into any sort of tactical to an in-out referendum, would be preferable voting alliance with Conservatives when the to a Miliband-led government? And make no impact will be so one-sided? mistake – that’s what we’ll get if we can’t put our differences aside and unite the right. The first thing to say is that the arrangement won’t be as asymmetrical as some UKIP I’m not asking supporters of either party to voters think. The website won’t just base its betray their principles. Rather, I’m inviting recommendations of who to vote for in 2015 on them to ignore their personal feelings and the 2010 election result. It will take a number consider the national interest. Think about of other factors into account, such as the most what Britain would look like after five years recent local elections, the European election in of Ed Miliband. The economy in the toilet, 2014 and the latest opinion poll data. immigration out of control and the last remnants of national sovereignty transferred to Who will decide which candidate the website Brussels. The Great Britain you know and love endorses? A committee made up of equal would be gone, replaced by a politically correct numbers from each party. Yes, there will be dystopia in which no dissent from left-wing arguments, but in most cases it will be pretty groupthink is tolerated. Will the last person to clear which candidate is best placed to win the leave the country please turn out the Ecozone, seat. Where the committee can’t agree, the seat energy-saving Biobulb? will just be declared “Too close to call.” If that vision of the future doesn’t appeal to But even if we do take all these other factors you, join me in trying to heal the rift among into account, Tory candidates will still conservatives. Help me set up a tactical outnumber UKIP candidates by a ratio of at voting website. Become a member of the joint least two-to-one. A pact along these lines might Conservative-UKIP committee. Email me at increase the chances of a few UKIP candidates [email protected] and let’s unite the right. getting into Parliament, but its main effect will be to increase the likelihood of a majority Conservative government. Why should UKIP supporters countenance such an arrangement when most of them regard David Cameron as no better than the other two party leaders? The short answer is that a majority Conservative government is the only way you’ll get an in-out EU referendum in the next

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Winning over minorities will win majorities

ll articles on this subject seem to start and the Conservative Party which is directly with the number 16: the percentage of related to their ethnic background. the BME (black and minority ethnic) A Of course, one of the things we need to do to electorate that voted Conservative in 2010. It’s change our brand is to improve representation. a paltry percentage when compared to the 68 Any decent political party should not only per cent which voted Labour that year, and one represent the communities it serves, but which has jolted Tories into realising our sorry it should also reflect the look and feel of standing among non-white Brits. the country it seeks to govern. But it’s not The importance of the BME vote in British just down to BME politicians to fight for Baroness Sayeeda Warsi politics grows and grows. Research by supposedly BME issues; it’s something every Operation Black Vote this summer revealed that politician should be engaged in. ethnic minority voters may actually determine For a start, we should realise that there is no the outcome of the 2015 general election. The homogenous non-white, BME group of people number of seats where black and Asian voters anyway; they are distinct, different, disparate could decide the outcome, OBV found, has communities, and there are great discrepancies rocketed by 70 per cent since 2010. Meanwhile, between the ways they communities vote. The Oxford University’s Professor Anthony Heath study unpicked this - ranging from has predicted that the ‘race deficit’ will cost our the not-too-bad 24 per cent of Indian-origin party between 20 and 40 seats in 2015. voters who voted Conservative to the atrocious And this isn’t just going to be an issue in 2015; six per cent of Black Africans who went Tory in as the number of BME voters increases - from 2010. one in ten in 2001 to one in five in 2050 - their My argument has always been that we need support will become even more of an electoral to address the specific concerns of these necessity in the decades to come. diverse communities. That means looking at It’s just as I have been saying for many the English language barriers that are faced years, long before I became Conservative by, in particular, Bangladeshi and Pakistani Party chairman: if we win over minorities, communities. It means confronting the school we will win majorities. And I believe this is attainment problems faced in some black more urgent and more crucial, and possibly communities. And it means showing people more challenging, than any of the other voter how our broader policies will specifically ‘deficits’ you might be reading about on these impact on their communities and address their pages. Ultimately, this is a problem which is different needs. very deeply entrenched. The British Election Confronting the issues that matter to people Survey showed that class was strongly linked isn’t some electoral ploy; it’s what governments to party choice among white voters, but should be doing anyway. But if we are thinking among BME voters, according to the Ethnic politically, we should look to Canada and Minority British Election Survey, class has little the strategy of their politicians, including to do with party choice. So we are left with a a good friend of mine, their Minister for situation in this country where, seemingly, the Multiculturalism, Jason Kenney. In their 2011 colour of your skin determines the colour of federal election, 42 per cent of voters born your politics. outside Canada voted Tory - surpassing even What this largely comes down to is branding. the number of Canadian-born voters, and The same research shows that BME people completely reversing the trend. Their strategy, often support Conservative policies; it’s just they said, was to tackling issues close to the when you stick a Tory rosette on those policies hearts of Canada’s diverse communities. This that they are put off. For example, on tax cuts is a crucial way to bring people on board. versus government spending, BME voters was As Nadhim Zahawi remarked; “Once the less supportive of greater government spending party had got the attention of the particular than voters in general. As Lord Ashcroft puts it community, it then became much easier to get a in last year’s excellent ‘Degrees of Separation’ hearing for its core messages on tax, crime and report, ‘among ethnic minority voters the enterprise.” Conservatives’ brand problem exists in a more But if there is one issue that does unite people intense form‘, citing a ‘barrier’ between them from BME backgrounds it is equality and

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discrimination. While just 19 per well’; it’s about showing that without for a well-documented range of cent of white voters think we need to our patchwork population Britain reasons, by representing our diverse improve opportunities for minorities, wouldn’t be where it is today, and that communities, by addressing the issues 70 per cent of ethnic minorities capitalising on our diversity is key to that most affect them, by cracking believe we should do so. And the this country’s recovery and prosperity. down on discrimination and opening Conservatives have a good story to up opportunities, and, of course, by In short, in the global race, our secret tell on tackling discrimination. For proving that our diversity is an asset. weapon is the diverse races that make example, we have done more than And I am confident. I truly believe up our nation - who stand for hard any other government to combat that a party which once only gained work and resilience, who are often anti-Muslim hatred, and Theresa 16 per cent of the BME vote can more patriotic than even their white May is leading an admirable and vital become the party of choice for diverse neighbours, and who have links across campaign to end the unfair use of communities across our country. the globe which can only boost our stop-and-search by the police, which economy. This recognition is, actually, has, for years, alienated non-white a very Tory trait. As Lady Thatcher communities. urged: “We need not be afraid that For me, however, the most crucial these new [multicultural] influences way of engaging and enticing non- will somehow threaten the ‘British white voters is the most overlooked: way of life’: on the contrary, a new demonstrating to ethnic minority resilience derived from diversity can communities how important their only strengthen Britain.” contribution is to Britain. This isn’t So we can overcome our the branding about flattering and patronising and problem, formed over many years saying ‘haven’t your people done

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How will the Conservatives win the next election?

onservative Party policy is focused on applications between February and April creating a Britain that is successful, were up by 32 per cent compared to the Cconfident and has a global reach, same period last year. Business is embracing providing opportunities for everyone, where the apprenticeships programme, vacancies our young people are equipped with the skills advertised online are up by 15 per cent, and on they need to compete in the world economy. 26 April there were 17,700 being advertised – a Our action to support aspiration could not be record high. more forward thinking and routed in what will It also means cutting corporation tax, not just help Britain succeed in the 21st Century. We for UK firms, but also to attract investment will only succeed if we reach out into the world, Rebecca Harris MP in the UK, a strategy that has helped deliver sort out our problems at home, and support our 1.3 million new private sector jobs since young people to aspire. 2010. Most importantly, we need to foster One thing is certain; the world will not stand entrepreneurship; the latest figures show still for the next century. The growth of the 250,000 new businesses were created in 2011 – BRIC countries will mean that post-industrial the biggest increase on record. We need to build nations like Britain will have to adapt to on this and continue to foster an environment the changing economic climate. Yet whilst in which new businesses grow and flourish. the growth of the BRIC countries will bring Thousands of young individuals will be expanding markets to buy British products and supported to buy their own home through services as well as greater competition, we have the Help to Buy Scheme which has beaten its ignored them for too long. forecast with 4,000 homes sold in the first two Increasing our influence in these economies months and council tenants are once again through forging business and aid links and the buying their own homes in huge numbers. All soft diplomacy that comes with them will be to the while families up and down the country are our mutual advantage. The nations that succeed benefitting from record low mortgage rates – in will be the ones that show the world they are May 2013 a typical two year mortgage rate was open to business and the Prime Minister is at 2.7 per cent. This is building a foundation for putting the country out there both by taking prosperity where people own their own homes business delegations abroad and dramatically and are not beholden to indiscriminate rent changing the culture at the Foreign Office to increases by landlords. focus very directly on increasing trade and Cutting the deficit, taking low paid workers exports. out of tax and making it easier to buy a house The Conservative Party also has the right are all policies that support younger people policies to deliver for UK business in the and look forward to a next century. Under Labour, the culture of for Britain based in 2020 and beyond. We are worklessness blossomed, the national debt unlocking the aspirations of a nation, backing rocketed sky high, and the state relentlessly people who want to work hard and get on. expanded its reach. We will not be able to We’ve got to do the hard work of making our compete in a global economy if we allow this country competitive again, so that Britain is trend to continue. That is why this Government able to pay its way in the world and compete in is focusing on supporting people who want to the global race. work hard and get on. That means cutting taxes to reward work and reforming welfare to make sure it always pays to work. It also means addressing the £220bn welfare budget by ensuring that all people who can work are supported to do so and putting limits on welfare so that no person can earn more in benefits than the average family earns from working. It means providing the opportunities like the apprenticeship programme to deliver the skills we desperately need to compete in the world. Here we are succeeding; online apprenticeship

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How Can the Conservative Party Deliver For Scotland?

he first test with any question That dynamic alone can exclude even is “What does it mean?!” The the sympathetic voter. The “I must Tsecond test is “Is there a credible stop the SNP so I’ll vote Labour. I answer?” can’t stand Labour so I’ll vote SNP” conundrum is one with which the Over the years, I have read acres are only too of commentary on the Scottish familiar. Conservatives: the party, the members, their elected representatives, their So the simple question “How can policies, their alleged absence of the Conservative Party deliver for Annabel Goldie MSP policies, and all related periphera. Scotland?” is at first sight challenging but less so on examination. To me that Similarly I have studied a multiplicity questions means: of analyses: the party pre-devolution, the party post devolution, the “How can the Conservative Party party during Westminster Labour deliver for the United Kingdom of incumbency, the party during Tory led which Scotland is a part and how Coalition incumbency. can the Scottish Conservatives within the Scottish Parliament deliver for Most of these outpourings can be Scotland?” dismissed as bucket loads of bilge. The essential facts are pretty simple. To which I have no hesitation in responding by saying there is most Scotland, during the Conservative certainly a credible and positive Governments of the1980’s and 1990’s answer. and in the teeth of the consequences of modernising the economy from one of The starting point has to be the guaranteed obsolescence to functioning partnership of the United Kingdom relevance, decided it did not care for and the collective strength it reflects the Conservatives. with the presence of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. When these consequences involved the disappearance of traditional industries In the best traditions of partnership, which had underpinned the majority of that relationship pools talent and Scottish communities, coupled with the resource, optimises influence in a introduction of the poll tax, Scotland global world to an extent impossible decided it didn’t like the Conservatives for an independent Scotland, and at all. Losing every Scottish MP in in times of challenge spreads the 1997 was the manifestation of that burden of risk. The latter is graphically opprobrium. illustrated by the global recession and the failure of the banking system. That electoral judgment does not make the modernisation of the economy So if the Conservatives are identified wrong. It was absolutely essential, with anything in Scotland, it is their indeed inevitable. However it does universally perceived support for go a long way towards explaining the United Kingdom. That iconic why for Scottish Conservatives, the constitutional association has already political territory in Scotland has been proved positive for us with tens of particularly intractable. Add to the thousands of people coming forward mix that in Scotland, the Conservatives to support our Scottish Conservative have not one major political opponent Friends of the Union, and as the but two, Labour and the SNP, and the independence referendum of 2014 whole “well our Conservative turn will looms ever nearer and the debate come round” philosophy is out the sharpens, the substantive components window. of that debate are proving favourable for the pro-Union parties and Indeed that “either or” dynamic challenging for the SNP separatist of Scottish politics, a polarisation cohort. of debate between Labour and the SNP, has proved a particularly The SNP confusion over EU implacable challenge for the Scottish membership for an independent Conservatives. Scotland, their trenchant protection of

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the legal advice on EU membership land of the free public provider! Alex contribution provides a sustainable (which turned out to be non-existent) Salmond’s economic proposition may basis for funding. and their chaos on currency have all be summarised as follows: By contrast to keep the doors open, exacerbated their woes. Provide as much as you can for free, Alex Salmond has had to raid the At this advanced stage in the debate when it becomes unaffordable and further education colleges’ budget with their apparent unpreparedness for unsustainable, excoriate the mean dire consequences. Colleges, whose detailed questions on defence jobs, spirited, parsimonious Westminster local presence facilitates access to interest rates and spending levels if coalition for not giving you enough education, have been forced to merge a foreign country (the rest of the UK) money. Then balance the books by and to cut courses and in consequence, controls the currency, not to mention both cutting internal budgets and the most vulnerable are prejudiced. what happens after oil reserves have robbing one budget to better fund Under Scottish Conservative proposals, been exhausted, is unimpressive. Add another. universities, colleges and students would be protected. to that today’s confusion on welfare His political mantra that the solution to provision in an independent Scotland all this is independence is not cutting And what about the free travel and the uncertainty compounds. any ice at all. concessions? In the land of Salmond, once you reach the age of 60 you The burgeoning belief that they cannot Against this backdrop the Scottish answer such questions fuels the get them even if still working and Conservatives have an unprecedented not requiring it. Under Scottish growing anxiety that the independence opportunity to deliver for Scotland and prospectus is irremediably flawed. Conservative proposals, we would under our leader Ruth Davidson has defer the concession until the age of 65. Meanwhile the Conservatives rightly been beating the drum: are identified with the positive But perhaps most significantly for dimension of this debate, head and Alone we opposed universal free the Scottish Conservatives, under the heart. prescriptions and we were right. new tax raising powers granted to the Giving that facility to people who are Scottish Parliament coming into effect But belief in and support for that well able to pay for their prescriptions successful, enduring social and in 2016 we can, as the only right of is now costing our Scottish NHS an centre political presence in Scotland, political partnership which is the estimated £57m a year. United Kingdom, also demands start to construct an agenda combining realism and courage in both We have over a number of years a more sensible and responsible recognising and resolving whatever opposed free university education approach to public expenditure than is currently on offer from any of the challenges confront the United warning at the last Scottish Parliament other main parties, with the attractive Kingdom. election that such a policy is inimical to sustained quality research by and high prospect of lowering taxation. The magnitude of the financial calibre education from our Scottish Now I call that delivering for Scotland, mess inherited by David Cameron universities and we were right. Our big time. and George Osborne seems almost proposal for an affordable graduate overwhelming in its awfulness. Their unwavering determination to deal with that mess, to take tough but responsible decisions to ensure our public finances are sustainable for present and future generations so that today’s children and their children are not mortgaged into an indefinite future, is the single most important commitment of this government. That is delivering for the United Kingdom, that is also delivering for Scotland. While opponents may carp and snipe, most people accept, including in Scotland, that something had to be done and it would be tough. The contrast with Labour and Mr Balls at Westminster, and the SNP and Mr Salmond in Scotland, could not be starker. The former, having been a contributor to the mess, castigates the Coalition government for dealing with it and laments decisions to rein in public expenditure, only to perform a complete u-turn and sign up to the very things he previously condemned! The latter, to quote from the song Scotland the Brave, has taken the “land of my high endeavour and the land of the shining river” and turned it into the

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How will the Conservative Party win city seats?

and our failure to comfortably win that I get when I mention that I'm from these has hampered our ability to . make further inroads into more central This image leads to the inaccurate constituencies. belief that there can't really be many, or Winning in cities isn't just about even any, potential Conservative voters numbers: if we wish to maintain our there. Cities represent diversity and position as a truly national Party, we that diversity is both a challenge and have to represent north and south, an opportunity for our party. While urban, suburban and rural. Diversity there are parts of London, Manchester, James Cleverly AM mustn't be a box that we tick, it's Birmingham and Sheffield that are something which gives the Party unlikely to return a Conservative, there vitality, helps generate and nurture are plenty of other parts of those cities f we, as a Party, do not rediscover ideas and provides the talent pool that could, and we mustn't write off the secret of winning in cities we are from which future representatives are our chances across the board. We have ultimately destined for permanent drawn. Having representatives from to accept that there are no quick fixes, I cities is an essential part of making however. Our under-performance opposition. the Party diverse in a genuine and in cities has been long in the making Until the 1992 General Election we meaningful sense. In recent decades and will take some time to fix, but it is held a good number of urban and we have slipped out of the habit of fixable. inner-suburban seats which are winning in cities. The situation is Firstly, we must secure our current now often thought of as safe Labour serious but not terminal and we have vote. There are thousands of seats. Two out of the three Lewisham a number of MPs and councillors in Conservative voters in cities who constituencies in South East London, urban areas, just not enough. Walthamstow in East London, Bristol do not have an elected Conservative East, Wolverhampton North East, We must have a more accurate and representative closer than their MEP. Birmingham Yardley and Nottingham less clichéd understanding of whom They may well have little or no contact East were all Conservative. Even as urban voters are and what motivates from the Party for years, have no idea recently as 1997 we had MPs for Leeds them. Some people in our Party that there is a local association that North West, Bolton West, Derby North seem to feel that cities look like some they could join and only hear about us and Bristol West. post-apocalyptic dystopia, an image through the media. They deserve to be perhaps fuelled by the media coverage treated better than that. There are a host of suburban target of rare but high profile incidents like marginal seats which have stayed just the 2011 riots or the terrible murder in out of reach for the last few elections, Woolwich. I see the "poor you" look

North West Blue Collar Conservatism

he best piece of advice I received powered jobs living in expensive from a party stalwart in Ribble houses supposed to be the bedrock of TValley Conservative Association Conservative support? He went on, before I started campaigning to get “You see, these are people who have elected as a Borough Councillor was, worked hard to get to where they are “Don’t worry about the Working now. They really value what they have Classes, there are more people living and living in the Ribble Valley means in terraced houses in the older parts of a lot to them. They just want to protect the Ward that Vote Conservative than what they’ve got. All they want is to there are that live in some of the big stop the Government interfering too Ged Mirfin detached houses on the new housing much in their lives and to spend the estates.” At face value what he was money they’ve earned how they want!” saying sounded utterly paradoxical. Aren’t affluent individuals with high The demographic of Billington, a Village of some 750 houses: an

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evolving mixture of micro housing their own homes and a protective Their weekly shopping bill continues estates from different decades and outlook toward the local area which to rise and they would rather cut back ribbon terraced housing development, they feel they have done so much or shop at a discounted Super Market is characterised according to Experian’s to help create – a lifestyle that they – what they don’t understand is why Mosaic Demographic, Lifestyle & feel is being threatened by the threat the price of commodities is rising so Behavioural Profiling System as Blue of unnecessary over-development, sharply. It is fortunate that a large collar workers and traders, serving blaming an uncaring Government number have already managed to pay the needs of small market towns, they thought was on their side. More off their mortgages. Consequently, what it calls “Jack of All Trades”. than most they are incredibly sensitive their lifestyles do not demand a great There are a large number of Small to the infrastructure needs of the deal of income to sustain them but Business Owners and Proprietors community that they feel they have missing out on Quiz Night at the Local who work for themselves as well as helped establish and the strains they Pub or Working Man’s Club is having Self Employed Skilled Tradesmen. feel that large numbers of new houses an impact on the viability of these Typically these are former Technical, will place on Roads, Schools, Libraries institutions that were once at the heart Skilled Engineering & Manufacturing and other important Local Amenities of village life. Employees who worked in Industry like Village Shops and Post Offices. many of whom benefitted from highly The big fear is being swallowed up as It is unsurprising therefore, that valued apprenticeship and technical part of the Urban Conurbation they such skilled artisans, (for that is training schemes. Many left school strove so hard to escape from in the ultimately what they are) are innately early and did vocational exams as first place. Conservative and that they vote they thought this would be a surer Conservative. Their education was not route to steady earnings through trade The outlook of Blue Collar to a particularly high level, but they than further education would. With Conservatives is fairly parochial have secured a stable and comfortable that comes both a pride in their work – not that they are limited in their lifestyle for themselves through and, a strong sense of responsibility horizons, many have travelled hard work, respectable behaviour to the community where they live. and holidayed widely but they do and good financial management – Our Village has been awarded well enjoy and feel comfortable with not something they have seen from kept village status in one guise or their familiar surroundings and are successive Governments of varying another on a number of occasions. not very interested by happenings hues over the past decades. They value There is a sense of achievement in in the wider world. They are tidy, those virtues in other people, and feel doing a good job for local residents, respectable people and tend not to be strongly that anyone can prosper in with tradesmen often working long very opinionated unless they feel that life by behaving as they have. This hours over several weeks to get a job they are getting a raw deal or being chimes well with their conservative done. VAT and Health & Safety are hit in the pocket by a Government views, both economic and social. They regarded as unnecessary distractions which they feel is not trying very hard believe in the importance of doing from their chief objective of actually to understand their way of life. They one’s duty: the fact that many have doing a job and earning money from pride themselves on a practical outlook enjoyed a period of time in the Armed it. In particular they are intensely and are keen to get on with their lives Services is no coincidence. Above suspicious of the EU and from their with as little effort as possible and all, such innately Conservative Blue perspective don’t understand why shrinking incomes is making this Collar Voters crave stability, security something so far away and remote has harder as time goes on. and constancy in their lives, and to a such an impact on their lives when it large extent they have achieved those Jacks of All Trades have not put aside things. The Banking Crisis and the comes to working practices, even down huge savings, and their incomes are to use of materials. UKIP is proving a most serious Economic Downturn fairly middling. While many of them in living memory is threatening that popular recruiting sergeant for the self would like to work more hours to earn employed. constancy and they strongly wish that more money, most are getting by, more the Government would acknowledge Business is still done on a face to face or less. Indeed most privately admit their concerns. If anything, although basis with recommendations coming that work so that they can enjoy their not demonstrative, what they want is by word of mouth. Payment by Cash is spare time, and the flexibility of their for their lives not to be changed in any preferred and a receipt is mandatory. jobs appeals to them. They pay the great way. That stability and constancy The accountant down the road needs bills on time, however, and manage to appears to be increasingly threatened that to do their books. They respect the maintain a decent standard of living. by economic instability and change Taxman but they resent him poking a Increasingly though they do not often for the worst that they don’t want. nose into their business. Community have much left over for luxuries or to It is hardly surprising that they are ties are deep and abiding, even as build up their savings. That is why not so much turning away from the a resident of now 14 years standing they feel that it is important for the Conservatives but reserving judgment, I am still regarded as a newcomer. Government to give them and be seen wondering why it is that as a Party we Unsurprisingly the Unemployment to be giving them a fair deal. When can’t deliver a political agenda attuned rate is extremely low – one of the they see how lightly Bankers appear to to their concerns. There is a very real lowest in the country and Owner be getting off the lifestyle comparison danger therefore that a Southern Occupancy Rates are extremely high. is seen to be an unfair one – and it London biased metropolitan agenda rankles! Deeply! focused exclusively on the institutional Many Residents live in comfortable political aspects of deficit reduction spacious homes that they not only The value of Pensions is a really big issue. A large number are destined will exclude Northern Blue Collar own but in many cases have actually Conservative Voters in the foreseeable developed themselves prior to to retire with nothing but a small personal pension and a few savings to future with the result that many will development becoming a popular either turn to UKIP in protest or media buzz phrase, some as former support them beyond the basic state pension. The good news is that their abstain, the result being a denial of Council House Residents who Victory in 2015 in both instances. exercised a Right to Buy. With self- expenses are very low. It is a good job reliance comes an immense pride in as the effect of inflation is having a damaging impact on their way of life.

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A Majority without Engaging Minorities by is Impossible Samuel Kasumu

t is a truth universally Chairman with the responsibility of launched, the One Nation Leadership acknowledged that we as a engaging ethnic minority communities- Programme, designed by Richard IConservative party must broaden former Bow Group Council member Fuller MP and I, will ensure that in the our appeal to continue to be relevant in . It also saw the launch years to come we have strong brand British politics. We know that in 2010 of a new BME campaign team, and a ambassadors who are leaders within we did not achieve the much coveted focus on building relationships with their own communities. By 2015 we’ll majority that would have allowed various media outlets that specialise have 90 campaigners from minority us to fully fix the many problems in engaging diverse communities. backgrounds who will have been left by Labour. We also know that Things seemed to be going in the trained and will certainly be ones to the number one determinant for not right direction, and even I myself was watch in the future. voting Conservative is not your class, so encouraged that I agreed to work occupation, geographic location, or within the to The Liberals haven’t stopped there gender. Evidence has proved that the support this great course. But as time however with their diversity agenda. number one reason why someone has gone on the gaps have once again June 2013 saw their ‘ethnic minority is unlikely to vote Tory is their race. appeared. For all of the words spoken, task force’ launch a paper with 16% of ethnic minorities voted Tory in the actions have been very limited, and proposals for the 2015 manifesto. These 2010, which was actually a new record the lack of focus on policy has meant proposals took into consideration high. Quite frankly, we will never win that there are now limited words to issues that many minority another majority without winning over back up what has been limited action. communities are directly engaged more ethnic minorities. Arguably more significantly, the rise with. Some topics were not exclusive of has UKIP meant that the party to minorities, but others were. Many The historic nature of Labour’s must now attempt to reengage its core of their recommendations may never monopoly on minority communities vote, with the opportunity cost being end up within the manifesto, but what is very interesting. It dates back engagement with other communities. it does do is tell the electorate that to a period when those from the We need to be seen to be tougher on within the Liberal Democrats there commonwealth came to help rebuild immigration, tougher on welfare, are parliamentarians, councillors, and post war Britain. The Empire and all the other things that UKIP are activists, who care about making sure Windrush landed unexpectedly offering the average white van man their voice is heard. This is a major on these shores with a number of that is ‘striving’. Our inability to juggle secret behind how to engage a broader Caribbean migrants suddenly, and the complex needs of different sections range of people. We need to at least the reaction by many within the of society has frankly found us wanting demonstrate that we acknowledge British pubic meant that we as a with just two years until the elections and care about the issues most commonwealth were no longer one. in 2015. passionate to them. This is why UKIP Soon after those with shaded skin is becoming a party whose appeal is were classified as ‘new commonwealth So where do we go from here? no longer limited to Europe. We must Migrants’ and those who were The Liberals, who will never win have our own BME campaign group white migrants were simply called an election outright, seem to be develop a list of proposals and then ‘commonwealth migrants’. A new offering the best examples of how to make those proposals public. We focus was put on ensuring ‘new to better engage ethnic minority must have a more open conversation commonwealth’ migration was communities. They were the first to about engaging diverse communities, controlled and limited. Labour, for launch a leadership programme that as this is when more leaders from whatever reason, embraced those who was intended to help broaden their ethnic minority communities will were now rejected, and today this party’s talent pool. For the first time begin to engage better with the party, legacy refuses to be forgotten. Sir John ethnic minority and female potential and ultimately when those people Major, the President of the Bow Group, parliamentary candidates were given who share our values will feel more was one of the first Tory leaders to direct access to the corridors of power comfortable about engaging with us. really focus on the need to appeal to and the training to make sure they ethnic minority communities. His work could compete with those who maybe Whilst I’m not too hopefully about is often forgotten because the success of had the advantages that so many what will happen in 2015; I am very this was self-evident in 1997, but none parliamentarians seem have when confident that we as a Tory party the less one must give credit to him trying to secure a winnable seat. have a great chance of establishing and his advisors for acknowledging the relationships and links to new Tory political challenges a changing Britain The Liberal’s programme was soon voters. We must first accept that would bring to the party. replicated by Labour and launched we need to be more intentional and by the Shadow Business Secretary, proactive, and above all we must To say that the party, and the Prime Chuka Ummana. We ourselves as ensure that we have both great actions Minister, is doing nothing to address early adopters also put together a (campaigning) and great words this challenge would be unfair. 2012 similar but stronger programme, which (policies) to better broaden our appeal. brought the party its first every Vice unfortunately is yet to progress. When

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Winning public sector voters

tricky’ We may all talk about ‘parity practice is a distinctly Conservative of esteem’ between practical and concept. The Conservative thinker academic subjects and jobs, but the and poet T.S Eliot warned against the political system has managed to hijack folly of devising ‘systems so perfect a word to talk about the practical that nobody will need to be good’, and which is suspiciously remote from an ideological divide which remains what it actually is. If we value them so between left and right, in a world of much, (which we should) why can’t what often feels like political cross- we just call practical, manual, technical dressing, is a tendency to rely on Charlotte Leslie MP trades, skills and crafts what they are? systems and tick-boxes by the Left, (Answers on a postcard please for a and a determination to foster personal catchy acronym for that one). I hate responsibility and individual values by erhaps the most misused and the term ‘vocational’ and try not to the Right. use it, but after over a decade or so of misunderstood word in the So far so good. However, many of political lexicon is the word talking about the ‘parity of esteem’ and P with this euphemism so mainstream, those who are motivated in their work ‘vocational’. Its misapplication both by a sense of ‘vocation’ and a sense of reveals some fundamental errors no wonder this ideal has not yet happened. mission and values - teachers, doctors, in how politics as a whole sees two and carers- happen to have their different sections of the population, The second group of people to be salaries paid by an entity traditionally and creates fundamental errors in how disenfranchised by the exporting of the treated with suspicion by the right, it treats them. For the Conservative word ‘vocational’ is those whose work The State. Unfortunately, all too often Party, this misunderstanding creates really is ‘a calling’ and a ‘vocation’. the reasonable Conservative suspicion a barrier against a whole section of Whilst it is possible to have a vocation of the large state institution and large the population that it should be much for pretty much anything, vocation state monopoly gets disproportionately closer to. is usually associated with a service – transferred to those front line staff it If a politician is talking about such as being a nurse, carer, teacher, employs. It is easy to forget that all something being ‘vocational’, what doctor, vicar. However, as the word large monopolies, whether public or they actually mean is that it is a ‘vocation’ has been moved from its private sector, are liable to corruption, manual, practical, technical skill, trade original context to a new one, so the lack of responsiveness, and bad or craft. It is a word politics uses to concept and idea of ‘a vocation’ begins practice, not just the state, and that mean ‘not an academic subject’. to be removed and erased as well, it is perfectly possible for the state to and politics begins to forget that these employ individuals motivated by a But this is a complete misapplication jobs are occupied by a great many sense of duty, a ‘calling’ to serve, and a of the word. Its actual meaning stems people with a sense of ‘vocation’ or developed sense of professionalism. from the Latin, ‘voco-vocare’ – to calling, which leads them to do their call, and is literally ‘a calling’. The work for a purpose beyond material In the work I have been doing to help implication is that a calling is a benefit. Another word for this could be the teaching profession set up a ‘Royal sense of mission, or purpose to do ‘professionalism’. College of Teaching’, I have been something that outweighs the overt, struck by the professionalism, sense of rational, material benefits of doing so. The New Labour Government found vocation and determination to strive It is a motivation or attitude towards this to its cost when it renegotiated for the highest standards, amongst doing something, not a description of how Medical Consultants were paid, those teachers I have been working what that thing actually is. It would to pay them for work they actually did. with, and by many in my constituency. be theoretically possible for me to Labour had propagated an idea that all In health, the NHS is only able to have an internal ‘calling’ or sense of doctors were ‘out on the golf course’, withstand political re-organisations ‘vocation’ to be a dustman or to be a and were hit by a nasty shock when and the extraordinary burden of mathematician. they introduced their ‘Consultant demand thanks to those of its frontline Contract’. When they paid doctors staff and good managers who are But the removal of the word from its for the work they actually did, instead dedicated professionals, driven by a original meaning of ‘a calling’, to its of saving money, it cost a lot more, sense of vocation. new politician’s meaning of ‘a manual, because far from waltzing around practical, technical skill, trade or craft’ on a golf-course, the overwhelming Conservatives must realise the has disenfranchised two sets of people: majority of doctors had been doing distinction between the ‘systems’ of so much work above and beyond that state institutions, the elite officials Firstly it denigrates those doing which they were required to do, out of who surf them, and those dedicated manual, practical, technical skills, a sense of professionalism and duty to individuals who work on the frontline trades or crafts. Because it is ill-fitted their patients. within them , who are so often driven to what it is supposed to mean, the by things that Conservatives hold word vocational takes on the sense of Doing something because of a set dear: values, a sense of duty, personal a patronising euphemism: a nice way of values, and taking personal responsibility and, yes, a true sense of to talk about something ‘a little bit responsibility to enact those values in vocation.

Crossbow 2013-10.indd 31 26/09/2013 12:03:46 32 Expanding the voter base & winning in 2015 Crossbow Magazine September 2013 What Happened to Green Conservatism? by There was green promise pre-2010, with a commitment to clean energy, protection of green spaces, habitats and wildlife and reduced animal testing, but not much of Graham Godwin it seems to have come to fruition. How can the Party show that it cares? Pearson

ote blue, go green” was the slogan technology”. Emphasis had clearly shifted from dreamt up to encourage voters that “going green” to “getting real”. the Conservative Party, under the new “V The cuts to feed-in tariffs in 2011 were very leadership of David Cameron, was modern, bad news to the renewables sector and no large compassionate and environmentally conscious. installations have been built since. FITs were He encouraged the entire shadow cabinet to introduced by none other than Ed Miliband switch to green energy suppliers at home. during his climate change brief days and He even posed with a husky on a glacier in voters might be forgiven for thinking that the Norway to prove that he cares about climate economic importance of renewables and the change. potential for Britain’s global leadership in But since then, something has changed. the sector have been largely ignored by the coalition. These days, in the Westminster village, you could be forgiven for thinking that ‘green’ is a With the nuclear new build going ahead and marginal word, almost trivial compared to the obstacles to investment having been overcome mountainous economic crisis that we inherited the Liberal Democrats have made their biggest from the last Labour Government. u-turn having opposed nuclear altogether before 2010. While many left-wing activists Perhaps upon reaching Parliament, the abhor the thought of nuclear, far more in the truly dire state of the economy meant that centre ground see it as the ‘least-bad’ option, ideological, environmental ambitions were put when presented with the alternatives of an aside while the Government deals with more energy gap or more fossil-fuel power stations. immediate problems. The Conservatives may not have lost any It’s not a Party split. Labour MPs are more friends over the issue but they haven’t made concerned about bashing the Government on any either. the NHS than on green issues. In fact, the 2010 Local communities have new powers to block intake brought with it some of the most eco- wind farms. From a localism point of view, the conscious MPs we have ever had, but they are sentiment is good, but it’s vulnerable to nimby- small in number. ism and will make renewables targets (e.g. the Energy and Climate Change pledged 15% renewables by 2020) difficult to measure and to meet. Soon after becoming Prime Minister, David Cameron called the coalition the “greenest However, the 2013 Budget also incentivised government ever”. Standing side-by-side shale gas exploration and licences are already with Chris Huhne, he pledged to reduce being bought. To stand a chance of avoiding carbon emissions by 10% in the first year of cries of duplicity, the government must offer government. the same local veto. Be sure, local opposition to fracking, which releases toxic chemicals At the time, the Liberal Democrats wanted into the ground, pollutes water and discharges to build 15,000 new wind turbines and the methane, is likely to be considerably stronger Conservatives had promised an investment than that against wind farms. in ‘clean energy’ (albeit left to the market to decide which). Then Tim Yeo’s energy bill amendment, to decarbonise the UK energy market by 2030, Seventeen short months later, with household was lost at the vote. Individual MPs have come energy bills soaring, George Osborne broke under fire for not backing the amendment and away from the green agenda, blaming although the matter passed without the press environmental laws and regulations in his interest such an important topic might have Conference speech. Cameron subsequently commanded, the green lobby is extremely made just a passing reference to “green disappointed and Labour has been handed a

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platter of tangible ammunition. causing bTB levels to soar. this is communicated in the same breath as more general ‘rural affairs’ One way or another, decarbonisation Sometimes a single, ill-thought- policies, which include the badger cull, has to happen within Yeo’s schedule. out policy can capture the public’s expanding rural broadband, reducing Britain can and should lead the world imagination and more than a quarter- water bills and boosting agriculture, in sustainable energy, micro-generation of-a-million people have called for the none of which are going to win votes and target setting. The alternatives are cull to be scrapped. from eco-conscious Middle Britain. a Labour government leading the way, Unlike the forests sell-off, which or worse, the international community The Party needs to keep climate generated a smaller fuss, the public imposing limits upon us, as a small change and environmental policies outcry over the badger cull has child is force-fed vegetables. separate from ‘rural affairs’ that might not led to a reversal – indeed, it is or might not affect those living in the Planning being executed with remarkable countryside, if for no other reason than stubbornness that can only damage the Conservative councillors around the different audiences. Government further. the country have, in many places, It’s not too late for the Conservative built good reputations for working Culling will almost certainly be halted Party to claim back its green ground. to protect green spaces, instead by Labour, should Miliband succeed After all, protection of what we promoting development on brownfield in 2015, citing no direct improvement have and improving life for future sites. in bTB. He may not be interested in generations is fundamental to protecting wildlife, but he knows how Last year though, the Government conservative ideology. to exploit failure. received negative press for what was Support for the Lib Dems is weak, perceived as a relaxation of planning Animal Experiments UKIP is silent on the environment and regulations. Many thought this was A current policy of the Party is to Labour has almost nothing to offer as carte blanche for new housing estates ‘reduce the use of animals in scientific an alternative - its green policies are all over the green and pleasant land. research and end the testing of thin and clearly low priority. Until house building picks up and household products on animals’ before Furthermore, almost nobody considers ugly, derelict industrial estates are May 2015. green investment to be a waste of replaced with shiny new starter homes, However, the number of animals used money – even the grittiest petrol-head the perception will endure. in scientific procedures has increased can be convinced when asked what Ironically this may take longer than to more than 3.7m, although Section 24 kind of world they want to leave to was thought as the overhaul of of the Animals (Scientific Procedures) their children and grandchildren. planning laws also means that more Act 1986 keeps details secret. It’s time David Cameron took another people can extend their homes and Many Conservative MPs are opposed trip to a melting glacier and made an therefore stay in them longer. to this increase, not least Cardiff impassioned speech along the lines of The Government must make the North’s Jonathan Evans, who 2006, to reinforce his commitment to details of its planning reforms clear campaigns to end vivisection, but the environment, climate change, clean – that homes will be insulated, that at whose local university animal energy and Britain’s wildlife. carbon-neutral development will be experiments have increased by 34% incentivised and that Green Belt will since 2010. not be touched. It gets worse - at the time of writing, Badger Culling celebrities, scientists, charities and MPs (including Conservatives) have put If there’s one thing that is going to get their names to a letter to Home Office environmentally-aware voters riled, it’s Minister Lord Taylor of Holbeach a cull of Britain’s wildlife, especially calling for an inquiry into Imperial an animal as iconic as the badger. College, where breaches of animal Combine that with wide publicity, experimentation licenses included live one of the world’s biggest rock stars decapitations, inadequate anaesthesia, and Britain’s favourite TV wildlife staff incompetence and neglect. presenters and it’s a recipe for disaster. University staff may lose their jobs, but It wouldn’t be so bad if culling anything other than a tough response badgers could reduce TB in cattle, from the Government to reduce animal but a reduction in bovine TB of just testing and punish breaches sternly 12-16% over almost a decade has pitted will make it look compassionless. the coalition and the NFU against The case of Imperial College is an scientists, the media and almost opportunity for the Party to make its everyone else. manifesto pledge a reality. To make matters worse, according to Communication the latest Defra figures, TB rates in cattle have fallen to their lowest levels While the Party is keen to promote in six years (3.6%, compared to 4.7% the good work it has done to protect in December); this despite claims that biodiversity and wildlife, plant 100,000 an out-of-control badger population is trees and restore Britain’s rivers,

Crossbow 2013-10.indd 33 26/09/2013 12:03:46 34 The economy Crossbow Magazine September 2013

Message Matters

he demographic landscape of We need a simple, effective campaign by the British electorate is shifting, message, designed to target the Nabil Najjar Tand The Conservative Party can key issues and concerns held by no longer rely on strong turnout from ordinary people. We need to talk its core voters alone to deliver electoral about increasing employment, cutting success. The 2010 election proved this; crime and reviving the economy. Our despite the deck being well and truly electoral conversations should focus stacked in our favour, we were unable on concepts like reducing the cost of to win an outright majority. One of living, standing up for hardworking the fundamental reasons for this was families and providing a future for the fact that we failed to win many of the next generation. These are issues the key urban seats we targeted. City which cut through social and economic Constituencies with small Labour dividing lines, and draw clear common majorities such as Hammersmith, ground between the Conservatives Tooting and Westminster North in and the voters. This is how Thatcher’s London, Birmingham Edgbaston, Conservatives won a majority in 1979, Bolton West and others were prime then increased it in 1983, then held winnable seats, but our inability to firm in 1987. Her core message was effectively court the urban vote cost us. one people could identify with, and one people gravitated to. We can, and The electoral situation in 2015 is, should do the same. presently, unlikely to hand us the advantage we held last time, and, Of these key groups of people, the following three tough years in ethnic minority bracket comes to government, we will need a clever the fore as both our greatest area campaign and a more sophisticated of underperformance, and also our message to try and convince key greatest scope for development. brackets of voters to turn our way. It According to an IPSOS-MORI estimate, is about working out exactly where only 16% of the national non-white we share common ground with our population voted Conservative, as target voters, making this apparent to opposed to 60% for Labour. The them and breaking down the existing 2011 Census reports that 15% of mental barrier many immigrant and the population classify themselves working class communities have as something other than White around voting Conservative. Doing British or White other, and when so is not as simple as we assumed it to we factor in to the equation the fact be. It is not about standing candidates that the population of minority who look and speak like them, it is voters is broadly centred in urban about making sure our Party shares environments, the importance of their ideals and their priorities – and making inroads into the voter base that they know this. Our recent public becomes patently clear. battles make us look out of touch and The 2010 election should have been detached from the issues people care the time when we broke that barrier. about. Gay marriage, Reform of the We ran high-profile ethnic minority House of Lords, Police and Crime candidates in key seats and minimised Commissioners and even some of discussion around the key issues the debate around the EU, though which turn off the BME vote, including undoubtedly important issues, are not immigration, yet this made little vote winners. These are discussions difference. which spark argument within the Westminster Village, yet wholly fail The fact is that, in order to win these to penetrate the electoral psyche of votes, we must be more sophisticated ordinary people, who simply do not in the way we target them. Grouping care. Our target voters will not vote the BME vote into one single block for the Party that introduces Police serves little to no purpose, neither does and Crime Commissioners; they will breaking down the pot into different vote for the Party most likely to help ethnicities. The fact is that these voters, improve their quality of life, their much like any other voter, tend to children’s job prospects and keep them make their electoral decisions based on safe from crime. personal situation and circumstance, as

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opposed to ethnic identification. Most have made it easier to both start a This is the first step to winning over see themselves as a small-business business and to grow an existing one, these rapidly growing groups, and owner, or a doctor, or a public-sector and we should be celebrating this. In will help solidify our foundations for worker, as opposed to simply as an the run-up to 2015, we should craft elections to come. ethnic minority. As such, the Party a message purely for small business Nabil Najjar is a public affairs consultant, should appeal to them on those owners, making it very clear, very Conservative Council candidate in grounds. We need to discuss these early that the Party has saved them Hammersmith and Fulham and Chairman groups as people as opposed to merely money and inconvenience. If this needs of London Conservative Future. as statistics. We should effectively to be communicated through different target specific voters, taking to them a mediums, that should be arranged. Not @NabilNajjar1 message with which they can identify, everybody watches Prime Ministers’ couched in a political language they Questions and not everybody reads can relate to. the Telegraph. We need to take the message to them at a grassroots level Perhaps the simplest and most effective – leaflets through the door, mailshots, manner in which to do this is to look at debates and discussion, community occupations. A significant number of events and so on. Leaflets written in first and second generation immigrants Arabic, Urdu, Hindi, Chinese or any into the UK, especially from outside other tongue may need to be produced the EU, tend to lean towards small to effectively get the message across, business ownership. Almost every and we should not be afraid to go major street in our cities has a down that root to spread our message. restaurant, shop or business owned or managed by an ethnic minority. Our traditional core vote is no longer The Conservative Party is, by its very enough to guarantee a majority, so the nature, a Party and subsequently a Conservative Party must evolve. We Government, which shares the value need to branch out, increase the size of small business owners but we of our reach and hone our message to must be better at communicating bring new groups of people under the this. Key policies such as reducing tent. We need to be clever in how we the bureaucracy involved in starting identify people, aggressive in the way a business, scrapping the National we drive our achievements and our Insurance increase proposed by Labour message, and sympathetic in the way and doubling small business rate relief we advertise our vision of the future.

Crossbow 2013-10.indd 35 26/09/2013 12:03:47 36 The economy Crossbow Magazine September 2013 We are for you

ere are some words that Ed at an all-time high. Corporation tax Balls didn’t use in his recent cuts are attracting multinationals keen Hconference speech: plan B; to relocate to the UK, while the small double-dip; triple-dip; too far, too fast; business sector has grown by over recession made in Downing Street; 300,000 new enterprises. Our plan has and, perhaps most importantly, sorry. helped keep interest and mortgage rates at record lows. That’s because, although there’s much more to do, the economy is turning But, despite falling unemployment and Sajid Javid MP a corner. And one thing is already rising growth, over the past three years crystal clear: Labour has lost the Labour has offered but two pieces of economic argument. advice: abandon the Government’s plan and increase borrowing. Their This is the result of three years of hard economic policy, as in the past, is more work and tough decisions to rescue borrowing, more spending, and more the economy and turn Britain around. debt. This, they are still convinced, is The decisions to cut spending, in order the only route to securing growth and to tackle the record budget deficit we jobs. inherited from Labour, were not taken lightly, but we have stuck firmly to this And they continue to believe this, plan. regardless of all evidence to the contrary. While somehow promising And, while there is still a long way to to borrow less by borrowing more, go, it is working. The deficit is down Labour frontbenchers have not been by a third and total employment is

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shy in racking up a catalogue of my father worked as a bus driver, and could not be clearer. unfunded spending commitments. then shopkeeper, to provide for our So, if you want to work hard, do the Indeed, since June this year, when Ed family, earning him the nickname ‘Mr. right thing, and get on in life, my Balls promised “iron discipline” (just Night and Day’ from his co-workers. message to you is simple: we are for as Gordon Brown did in 1996), Labour All he wanted was what all responsible you. has already announced £28 billion of parents want: the opportunity to unfunded spending with, doubtless, provide for their family. more to come. This extravaganza That’s why in government, I’m would equate to more than £1,000 determined – and Conservatives are more borrowing and more debt for determined – to create an economic every working family in the country. recovery for hardworking people. And Such reckless spending would be we’re doing this by fixing the tax and disastrous. It would be a clear signal benefit system so that it rewards hard to the financial markets that we work. We’ve cut income tax for 25 weren’t serious about paying our million people and taken 2.7 million way. It would spark a market crisis, out of income tax altogether. At the and mortgage rates would soar. Job same time, we’re capping benefits so losses and business insolvencies would no household out-of-work can claim follow. Hardworking people would more than the average family earns in pay the price for a Labour Party that work. If you aspire to own a home, but hasn’t changed and simply can’t kick can’t afford the deposit, our new Help its borrowing addiction. to Buy scheme will help you do so. Want to start a business and take on While Labour remains stuck in the that first employee? We’re removing a past, Conservatives are focused on huge barrier by taking the first £2,000 the future. We want to ensure that off your employer National Insurance all hardworking people benefit from bill. the recovery. I know what it’s like for families who are finding times tough As Ed Balls tours the television studios, right now, having grown up on one struggling to hide his disappointment of Bristol’s roughest streets and lived that the economy is strengthening and with my parents and four brothers in blowing apart his argument, we are a two-bed flat. I remember how hard getting on with the job. The contrast

Lessons from Keynes

An interview with Sir Samuel Brittan, by Luke Springthorpe

ith the economy seemingly on the against the protests of 364 economists who, in up, it seemed a pertinent time to their letter to , proclaimed that there Wmeet with one of our great national was "no basis in economic theory or supporting contrarians to find out how sustainable he evidence" for the deflationary budget at believes the recovery is and how much credit the time. He along with the Conservative the government can take for it. government of the day turned out to be right. Despite this, he hasn’t pulled his punches in the Sir Samuel Brittan Having served as an economic commentator past when it’s come to the current government. at the since 1966, I knew Sir Samuel Brittan would be someone well placed As we settle down to tea and cake, the small to compare the performance the Conservatives talk ceases at the point Mr Brittan asks me what in coalition with that of the last Conservative it is I’d like to talk to him about. governments from 1989-1997. As someone I know to have been an admirer He was one few commentators to defend the of the works of John Maynard Keynes, I’m 1981 Budget’s deficit reduction measures keen to ascertain if he thinks Keynes is

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misunderstood in the modern era, Yet despite his admiration for some economic argument and, in turn, the particularly within the Conservative of the Keynesian prescriptions for election. Although a Liberal- minus Party. “He certainly does appear to reflating an economy when the the preoccupation with the EU and an have been misunderstood, though I circumstances are right, he’s clear elected House of Lords - I for one was believe that to be more a case of the in his belief that the state needs to left in little doubt Sir Samuel has not current Chancellor and Prime Minister be far less prescriptive in trying to yet been convinced by The Coalition’s not actually understanding his work or exercise control over the economy. economic policies. having a firm grasp of economics than “Productivity doesn’t come from Keynes being wrong.” He goes on to ”, he explains, “but comes refute the allegation levelled by some from businesses and individuals. that Keynes was less concerned about Where understanding Keynes controlling inflation and instead with becomes important is that this requires boosting nominal (rather than real) businesses to have confidence in the incomes with a swift rebuttal. “We only prospects of the wider economy and have to look to see that Keynes did in to have some idea of what is likely fact support a slowly increasing level to happen to demand in the short to of prices of approximately two per medium term.” cent. George Osborne would call that Having raked over the Governments price stability!” track record, I’m curious to ascertain He for one doesn’t believe that the what he thinks will happen to Conservative party is, or ever has Labour’s ‘Plan B’ given the recent been, a party of non-intervention upturn. Although he confesses his either. “Osborne has advocated admiration for Ed Balls as “one of the intervention in the housing market, sharpest minds in Westminster”, he and more recently we have HS2. sees the case for a stimulus as having Despite the rhetoric, the Conservative been diminished significantly. “At Party has always actively intervened present, things are picking up though in the economy and not always to which would make me less likely to good effect.” I ask if he feels these recommend a stimulus. That said I escapades have any grounding believe it is animal spirits driving the in Keynesian policies; “No. I see economy forward as investors tire of these as long standing ideological sitting on cash rather than thanks to the preferences. Despite the rhetoric of government.” small government espoused by the Underpinning our discussion Conservative Party, we only have throughout is a lack of any real faith to look back in history to remember in Osborne and the current crop of pledging to build politicians forming the government. three hundred thousand homes as if As we turn to discussing how much the government was going to do it! credit the government can take for Today, we see Help to Buy. This is an the recovery, he is less than flattering. extremely indirect way of stimulating “They have largely benefited from the economy; it is about boosting home events, not least an upturn in the US”, ownership which remains the holy and what’s more, “the government still grail for the Conservative party”. needs to do more to step back from I enquire as the whether he believes micro-managing the economy. This that this lack of awareness causing isn’t even what Keynesian economics Keynes’ work being too readily is about”. He turns to a rather telling dismissed might result in sporadic criticism, which may be reflective of targeting of certain sectors, rather than how many in the Conservative Party focusing on stimulating the entire increasingly view the leadership. “I economy. He appears convinced that suspect Cameron’s heart isn’t really in this is too often the case. Clasping his the concept of deregulation and that hands, he proclaims “the problem he’s often keen to intervene. I think is that the Labour Party is more that he has not been bold enough and concerned with the creation of ‘one is simply hungry to hold on to power nation’- a slogan they have stolen from rather than reform. “ an earlier generation of Conservatives, It is precisely such sentiment and whilst the Conservatives are often doubt from traditional allies of preoccupied with increasing levels of Conservative economic policy that the property ownership. Neither of these Conservative Party must win over in are Keynesian principles.” the run up to 2015 if we are to win the

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ust when Labour was forecasting a third to implement its policy. The first year saw an recession in a row, along comes a recovery. increase of more than 5% in current public JMore than that, when the officials re- spending. It also saw precious little money crunched the numbers, they discovered there growth, as the banking regulators forced the hadn’t been a second recession after all. commercial banks to find more capital and to Labour’s demand for a Plan B – spend more, lend less to improve their balance sheets. It borrow more, tax more – looks strangely dated. has taken three years to get the growth rate in It’s like offering people ice creams when it’s public spending down. The Euro crisis took still perishing cold, thanks to Labour’s past away demand and markets abroad. The tax John Redwood MP enthusiasm in 2008-9 to put all the banks into rises were put in first and they naturally had a the freezer. negative effect on output and activity. In order to understand the present economic Now there is good news. It looks as if the third revival, it is important to understand the past. quarter of 2013 has brought much faster growth Labour presided over a huge borrowing binge from the UK. Construction, manufacturing in both the public and private sectors. In the and services are rising together. Confidence is run up to 2007 they left interest rates low, returning. There is more money in circulation. encouraged banks to balloon their balance There is more spending. The deficit is down by sheets, and went on a spending and borrowing a third. binge in the public sector at the peak of the Already there are siren voices saying there is a cycle. new bubble. It is true flats are dear and growing This has now been widely criticised and dearer in the centre of London. This is a one condemned, and Labour admit they made off market, dominated by foreigners with lots mistakes on the way up. Bizarrely in 2007- of money. It is our new export market, where 8 Labour then presided over the opposite we build expensive flats in the centre for sale to error. They hiked interest rates, drained the rich individuals who love our capital city. And markets of liquidity, pushed the banks into why not? In the rest of the country house prices difficulties and watched as their chosen banks have only just turned upwards a little. We need fell into financial crisis. It was the two Scottish more confidence and more cash in the housing banks, RBS and HBOS, and the northern bank, market to get the new homes built which we Northern Rock, that turned out to be the most need. overextended. These were the very banks So the Chancellor does not need a Plan B. He Labour had supported and praised as their needs to implement his excellent Plan A to fight back to the dominance of London. eliminate the structural deficit mainly by lower It is true that Labour made the Bank of England spending and reform of the important public independent, so you can blame the Governor services like health and education that do need for some of it. It is also true that Labour rising amounts of money. It’s Labour who now rightly overruled the Bank during the crisis. need Plan C, if they can’t bring themselves to Under their scheme democratic authority was back the Coalition’s Plan A. Plan B looks very maintained, as the Chancellor was the head dated, and is trying to solve a problem we do of the tripartite system of financial regulation, not have. The UK is not in double or treble leading the FSA and the Bank in their work. It dip. It could well be one of the fastest growing was a pity he did not overrule the FSA and the economies of the advanced world for a bit. Bank more often, as they allowed bank after When would Labour help control the excess bank to get into severe difficulties, and refused borrowing they started? to make money available in the market to help before the crisis was obvious. The Coalition came to power pledged to cutting the government deficit, to get on top of the large and growing state borrowings. It promised easy money to stimulate a private sector led recovery. It said it would cut the public deficit 80% by spending cuts and 20% by tax rises. This was a great policy mix which would work. So why was there a delay in the recovery? The main reason is it took time for the Coalition

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Towards a free-market anti-poverty strategy

overty campaign groups in the UK are consumption taxes highly regressive. heavily fixated on increasing welfare Housing is the most important of these areas. transfers and expanding social services. P Historically, the rule-of-thumb formula has To organisations like the Child Poverty been that a region’s average house price is Action Group and Oxfam, tackling poverty is between two and three times the average essentially synonymous with reversing welfare annual income in that region. Nowadays, in cuts, and reverting to the expansionary social most UK regions, house prices are more than policies of the boom years. five times the average income, and rent levels Kristian Niemietz Yet these policies were already pursued have increased alongside. The reason is not ambitiously in the decade up until the far to seek. Due to overly restrictive planning recession, when the British welfare state was laws, and local decision makers bending over inflated to Scandinavian proportions, and the backwards to appease ‘nimby’ groups, the success has been modest. For a while, living UK has built fewer new homes than any other standards of low earners did improve, but European country over the past three decades this strategy never developed a momentum (relative to population size). The economics of its own. It only worked as long as an of this is simple, but the politics is extremely ever-increasing injection of state money was difficult, since the nimby-machinery is well- forthcoming. Now that it is no longer viable, oiled. For a start, ‘nimbys’ never call themselves the poverty industry has no alternative to offer, ‘nimbys’, of course. They describe themselves since their whole agenda is based on welfare in more winsome terms like ‘countryside expansion. This leaves a huge vacuum, waiting campaigners’, ‘conservation groups, ‘concerned to be filled with ideas for an alternative anti- local citizens’ or simply ‘the local community’. poverty strategy. They are also good at diverting the housing debate towards red herrings, like brownfield In one important respect, the coalition is sites, empty homes, underused homes, second already broadly on the right track in this homes, land banking, or immigration. Yet the regard. With the and determinants of house prices are quite well accompanying welfare changes, the coalition researched, and most of the literature shows is undertaking some sensible steps to tackle that the single most important factor is the chronic worklessness and welfare dependency. severity of building restrictions. There are Given the UK’s extremely high proportion of other factors, but none of them can account for children in workless households, these steps are more than a small share of Britain’s house price absolutely necessary. explosion. The only way to resolve the issue is But welfare reform cannot be the only to allow a massive expansion of the housing ingredient in an effective anti-poverty agenda, stock. because it does not address the concerns of A government which aims to address this those in low-paid occupations who, despite issue must abandon the comfortable illusion reasonable working hours, still struggle to that groups like the Campaign to Protect Rural pay their bills. A comprehensive anti-poverty England can be reasoned with. A reform- strategy must aim at raising the living minded government must find the courage to standards of low-to-middle income earners confront such groups, and expose them for the more broadly. vested interests that they are, rather than back The most promising way to achieve this is to down as soon as a few sound-bytes (‘concreting address the causes of the UK’s exceptionally over the countryside’ etc.) are thrown at them. high level of basic living costs. This is an area Childcare is another area which contains huge with a lot of room for improvement. Housing efficiency reserves. Once a relatively informal costs in the UK are amongst the highest in the sector, it has now been turned into a highly world. Childcare costs are considerably higher standardised and regulated profession, which than in most other developed countries. Food has wiped out the market’s low-cost segment. prices and energy prices are less unusual in Public childcare subsidies in the UK are on a an international perspective, but still a lot par with Swedish levels, but the difference is higher than they have to be. Furthermore, the that in Sweden, these subsidies cover almost overuse of ‘sin taxes’ makes the structure of all childcare costs. British parents, in contrast,

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are still faced with steep out-of-pocket of the environmental cost of the taxed the same time, fewer people would be payments. A thorough deregulation of activity, which means that they have exposed to benefit withdrawal rates, the sector could make childcare more ceased to be genuine environmental which would improve incentives to e.g. easily affordable, which, as a positive taxes. This should be rectified. Most move from part-time employment to side-effect, would facilitate labour importantly, the renewable energy full-time employment. This would lead market participation among parents. subsidies that are forced on consumers to a fall in benefit expenditure and an via their electricity bills – a green tax increase in tax revenue, which could In the coming negotiations with the in all but name – should be scrapped then be used to finance tax cuts for low EU about the possible repatriation entirely. They are just another example earners, improving work incentives of competencies, an opt-out from the of an industrial policy which attempts further. wasteful Common Agricultural Policy to pick winners, and ends up breeding should be one of the top negotiating A free-market anti-poverty agenda white elephants. points. The aim of this must not be would be economically sound, fiscally to replace the CAP with an equally Finally, the over-use of ‘sin taxes’ neutral (at worst), and workable even wasteful British equivalent, but to has to stop. Insofar as people’s in an adverse economic climate. It establish an unsubsidised agricultural lifestyle choices impose costs on would not cost any taxpayers’ money, sector that is fully exposed to free others, they should be dealt with but admittedly, it would be hugely trade. This is how New Zealand and directly. For example, there is no expensive in terms of political capital: Australia have brought domestic reason why a hospitalisation with If a party is looking for a way to upset wholesale food prices into line with alcohol intoxication should be free of a multitude of noisy interest groups at world market prices, a boon for low- charge. User fees, not sin taxes, are the once, this is it. income consumers. appropriate way of dealing with such costs. Environmental policy also needs a good deal of tidying up. Environmental These are ways of addressing the protection is a laudable aim as long high cost of living, which, if pursued as it means improving environmental decisively, could lead to a virtuous quality at a tolerable cost, but modern circle: With living costs tumbling, environmentalism has become a out-of-work benefits could be reduced form of moralistic anti-consumerism, to keep the living standards of their which is no longer really about the recipients constant while the living environment. Many ‘green’ taxes in the standards of the low-paid increase, UK already exceed available estimates thus improving incentives to work. At

Crossbow 2013-10.indd 41 26/09/2013 12:03:49 42 policy Crossbow Magazine September 2013 Doing Foreign Aid the Conservative Way

attempt to justify their spending home and internationally. The state has suggesting that they need weather determined to take this responsibility satellites. from its citizens, funding the aid budget through taxation. Whilst we In another part of the world the remain a nation of generous givers, Syrian refugee crisis is worsening. the Government’s position will, Given Parliament’s decision to block understandably, continue to have a the Government’s plans to intervene chilling effect on the British citizen’s militarily against the Assad regime, it enthusiasm for charity. Miles Windsor could be considered reasonable that humanitarian intervention for those Therefore, whilst such a shift would refugees and their host nations is on be complex and sensitive, in the mid- 'm one of many British taxpayers the increase. So far we have pledged to-long-term we should be radical in with neither a pair of Ray Bans £400 million to this end – aid we can be transitioning to the point where we can Inor a Ferrari. This is of course a proud of perhaps? empower the individual to charitable deeply regrettable predicament, one giving and reduce state aid. This I must admit that my instinctive not shared by some of the political would serve to foster the conservative response was to praise the Prime leaders of nations to which we provide principles of choice, localism and Minister's determination to keep aid. Therefore in the view of many personal philanthropy - which should Britain generous in spite of our own conservatives I should share the form part of a conservative vision for financial woes. Of course, it is also true opinion of UKIP’s Godfrey Bloom MEP Britain. This vision would, in turn, that our aid isn't entirely altruistic. on international aid, if not his archaic underpin an overarching collection of It can be no bad thing that some of language. Let's not be naïve in thinking coherent conservative policies which our tax money is spent supporting his inflammatory language about move us towards a set of achievable the poor in countries where their ‘Bongo Bongo Land’ did him any harm ambitions as a nation in this area of own governments can't or won't. politically. His rant hit the spot for policy. However, such arrangements will many cash-strapped and disgruntled take diplomatic and trade interests So how would the aforementioned voters asking, 'Why should my hard- into consideration to the benefit of the shift in aid policy work in practice? earned money line the pockets of UK. Perhaps the answer in the short- I'm not going to turn this article into African despots?' It is undoubtedly the term then is for the Department for a comprehensive white paper but prevailing mood amongst the majority International Development (DFID) to perhaps I could suggest the kernel of of our supporters at Conservative go further in communicating both the an idea. The proposed shift might be Grassroots. Many conservatives want impact of the aid budget on those less achieved by combining a reduction the Coalition Government to remove fortunate than ourselves as well as in the aid budget with a reduction the ring fence around the aid budget in the benefit to Britain. It would also be in taxes, whilst promoting and favour of 'charity starts at home'. After a refreshing change to see politicians enabling international giving through all, we're not exactly rolling in cash at sticking to their commitments – in this innovative technology – giving British the moment. case the UN's ambitious Millennium citizens information and choice as to One might sympathise with the Development Goals which include where their money is spent. The state detractors to the 0.7% commitment, halving the percentage of people living needn’t remove itself from the process especially when particularly awkward on less than a dollar a day and halving completely, instead assisting the citizen aid arrangements come to light. Most the percentage of people in the world through facilitating the giving process recently, it was reported that we’re who suffer from hunger. and playing some part in targeting sending £300 million to Nigeria this the donations to the most effective However, subjecting my own position year alone. In Nigeria, 70% of the agencies and points of greatest need. to rigorous inspection and applying population live below the poverty line; Whilst the satisfaction gained from conservative principles, I began to however, their government is actively charitable giving is ample reward in question whether there might not be a developing its own space programme, itself, Government should reinforce the better way. After all, as a conservative, including manned space flight. culture of generosity further through I want to see a generous society full , the International our tax system and by reporting back of philanthropists making the choice Development Secretary, made a weak the results 'on the ground'. to give their money to good causes at

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Such an approach would undoubtedly trading costs and bureaucratic red- of the British public; how we might require faith in the British public to tape, and improving infrastructure encourage and empower people to 'do the right thing' rather than simply so that these countries can grasp even greater levels of effective, targeted banking all of their money that's no trading opportunities that would personal philanthropy whilst cutting longer going to the Treasury, but such otherwise be out of reach. It enables taxes to this end. Let's make it less is the nature of de-centralised control. local businesses to trade their produce about clawing back our foreign aid into You have to hold your nose and jump in the international market, creating our own pockets. Real conservatism is - having faith in the people of Britain - jobs and enabling import from the inherently compassionate after all. an approach that government ministers international markets at a lower price. Cllr Miles Windsor is a Director of are too often unwilling to try. We have This approach to aid and development Conservative Grassroots, an organisation every reason to believe in the inherent support makes much more sense in that is seeking greater freedom and kindness and compassion of Britain. terms of supporting the development democracy within the Conservative Party. Therefore, we should as the Party of of healthy capitalist economies and He is also an international strategy low tax, personal responsibility and would further opportunities for trade consultant. localism, put our money where our and investment to the benefit of the mouth is. UK. It’s a comprehensive version of the @Miles_Windsor much clichéd fish verses fishing rod In the meantime, the Government @ToryGrassroots concept. should focus its energies on ‘Aid for Trade’ which is about putting the For now, perhaps we should adjust economic progress of developing the way in which we debate this nations at the heart of international issue as conservatives. The discussion aid strategy. In practice this means should be about the ways in which a boosting trading capacity via a conservative government might put variety of initiatives such as reducing the UK’s foreign aid back in the hands

Conservatism and the owning of ownership

he advocacy of widespread conservatism has not managed to build ownership of homes and on this legacy. businesses is not foreign to T The selling off of public sector conservatism. Against the organised assets under the 1980’s privatisation theft of collectivism and in part programme hoped to stimulate persuaded by radical Edwardian mass share ownership; however, liberals like Belloc and Chesterton, very quickly these shares were sold Twentieth Century conservatism began off by the public and private sector to uphold a variant of distributism. monopolies in effect replaced public As a philosophy, distributism argues Phillip Blond sector ones. Mass share ownership that nobody can prosper in a market never really took off, and ever since economy without some form of conservatism has remained trapped in ownership and market access. It was rhetoric about mass ownership and a the Scottish conservative politician perpetual dream of more council house Noel Skelton who first coined the sell offs rather than creating its reality phrase property owning democracy or a 21st-Century variant. in a series of articles in in 1923. Recognition of its ultimate There are nonetheless some bright importance lead to Eden’s famous points of light. at the home owning democracy speech in Cabinet Office has been trying to create 1946 as well as Margaret Thatcher’s public sector mutuals as an alternative council house revolution in the to state provision and the standard 1980’s. Peculiarly and unfortunately response of privatisation. Similarly

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Greg Barker the Minister of State at players who have overwhelming DECC has tried to create a bottom up market share. Especially in mature revolution in energy ownership and markets there is little or no chance of competition creating both individual new market entrants so the rewards of and community owned hubs of energy ownership and exchange belong as if generation. And the Government, by right to those who are already well though it must be acknowledged this positioned and are already the winners has been driven more by the Liberal of a zero sum game. Democrats, has made real progress Developments in technology and through its implementation of the globalisation mean that what Nuttall review on the extension and happened to working class Britons in popularisation of employee ownership. the 1970’s and 80’s will now hit middle The Post Office sell off giving 10% to class lives as well. The consequences workers should have been more but of a failure to position and develop still it’s the right direction, and one one’s own population can be fatal could say much more of the same to the life chances and subsequent about the share of revenue (a mere 1%) outcomes of those who are abandoned going to communities through shale to themselves. gas exploration. Consider for example the United The Localism Act 2012 promised much States. In the US the top 1% of US with its new list of community rights households had just under 9% of but the ‘right to challenge’ and take GDP in 1974 by 2007 that had risen over public services has been construed to 23.5% of GDP. This appears to be a on a service rather than an area basis structural advantage that even applies and has as a result fragmented the with the return of growth. During the ownership it hoped to bring together. first two years of the US’ economic People might want to take over all the recovery (2009-2011), the mean net services in their area and so transform worth of households in the upper 7% it but they are unlikely to want to just of the wealth distribution rose by an take over bin collection. Perhaps the estimated 28%, while the mean net greatest advances have been made worth of households in the lower 93% in trying to open up public service dropped by 4%. procurement to small and medium sized businesses and social enterprises All of which should give British through the Social Value Act 2013 Conservatives pause. We know that and various other Cabinet Office Britain is highly unequal. The latest endeavours. statics from the ONS are as clear as always. The bottom half of UK But good as all of this is it is hardly households own less than 10% of sufficient to address the scale of total wealth whereas the wealthiest the ownership crisis that confronts tenth of UK households own more us. For what we have now is little than 40%, almost 850 times greater less than a rentier economy. Under than the wealth of the least wealthy the soaring rhetoric and epigone 10% of households. The notion that advocacy of a Milton Freedman market such wealth at the top leverages up liberalisation we have seen the greatest the aggregate wealth of those at the concentration of assets and wealth bottom is flawed is the product of since the Edwardian era. Sometimes an ideological wish rather than any it seems that the Anglo-Saxon market rational discernment. If Conservatism model as practised in the UK or the does not find a way to reverse the USA is the most effective confirmation increasing concentration of assets, of Marxism that I have ever seen. wealth and power they will force Though we promise through hope and people to turn to the state for their ideology a people’s capitalism where economic and financial security and all participate in ownership and trade conservatism will have succeed not in what we produce is its exact opposite producing a new distribution of power – a world where most are consigned and wealth but a new mass need for to wages and welfare. A world were welfare and an outcome that Marx both real ownership and market access predicted and wished for. belongs to the few and not the many and an economy where the incumbents are in such ascendancy that the old market models were we had 8 or even 10 companies competing now consist in perhaps as few as 2 or 3 dominant

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It’s time to deliver real rail competition; twenty years since Conservatives delivered railway privatisation

Party and various so called ‘passenger on too small a scale. The policy was groups’ threatened to undermine one and remains right, but it must now be of the most radical of all Tory sell-offs. more widely applied. But a radical solution was needed to Whilst the Conservatives hoped and break a draconian consensus. During planned for the emergence of up to the 1960s and 70s both political parties 100 rail companies, which would decided that rail demand was doomed compete for business over one private to decline and moved to close a third of infrastructure system, the reality has the railway network in the now famous emerged where fewer companies bid Tony Lodge ‘Beeching’ review. Demand for rail for franchises to operate rail services travel declined steadily from 1955 to over a fixed long timescale. The 1982 and was again falling in the early winner is the company seeking the ur objective is to improve 1990s. lowest subsidy or offering the highest premium with other pledges of the quality of railway Consequently, it is important to service and investment. Importantly, services by creating many contrast the challenges facing the “O most franchise winners will not face new opportunities for private sector railways in the early 1990s, compared any long distance non-franchised involvement. This will mean more with today. Faced with a gradual competition. Critics complain, with competition, greater efficiency and a but supposed terminal passenger some justification, that privatisation wider choice of services more closely decline, the Government wanted to has allowed modern day long distance tailored to what customers want”. deliver private investment, lower passenger monopolies – or railopolies subsidies, more passenger choice Twenty years ago the above statement - to emerge where franchises face no and more competition. In parallel from the then Transport Secretary, effective competition. John MacGregor, formed the backbone it wanted to detach the politics of of Tory ideology for one of the most rail from Whitehall, as it had with In comparison, competition has been controversial and politically difficult other nationalized industries such as hugely successful for rail freight which of all the privatisations of the Thatcher telecommunications. was privatised alongside the passenger sector. It has benefitted from strong and Major period. The decision to Today, albeit twenty years late, the on-rail competition which has led to privatise British Rail was not taken ambitions in the Minister’s quote are investment in new rolling stock, high lightly. A small Tory majority, upheld in new research and statistics; levels of productivity and reduced opposition from the powerful rail rail competition is finally delivering for costs to satisfy market demand. (see unions, the John Smith led Labour passengers and the Government, but Table 1) So what about the passenger sector?

Table 1

Since 1993 the rail network has witnessed unprecedented growth. Passenger traffic has doubled with UK rail passenger numbers growing faster than all other European countries. It is expected to double again by 2030. The explosion in demand for rail travel since privatisation has reversed all previous predictions. More people are travelling by train than at any time since 1929 on a rail network almost half the size and enjoying the highest levels of safety on record.

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Table 2 • stations with open access rail service competition • stations without open access rail service competition • average change for all stations

Table 3

On the East Coast Main Line, private Revenue has also increased at a faster year on year and are the largest of non-subsidised and non-franchised rate (57% compared to 48%) where any of the long distance franchises), ‘open access’ rail operators such competition occurs. Importantly, at even though it faces competition as Grand Central and First Hull Edinburgh where no direct on-rail with Grand Central and First Hull Trains compete with the lines’ competition exists on the ECML to Trains at stations like Northallerton, franchise holder (East Coast) and serve London, fares have soared. (See York, Doncaster and Wakefield. *At this competition has provided some Table 3). Crucially for passengers, at Wakefield East Coast uses Westgate revealing new statistics. They show stations where open access services station and Grand Central services call how long distance rail competition compete with the franchise holder at the City’s Kirkgate station. delivers lower fares, higher revenues average fares increased by only 11% compared with 17% at those stations The most recent official passenger and greater rail use without without. satisfaction survey shows open access threatening the viability of the East operators Grand Central and Hull Coast Main Line (ECML) franchise In the past franchised rail operators Trains registering 96% and 94% overall holder. have complained to Ministers that passenger satisfaction respectively. more competition will limit or prevent New research shows that those stations Importantly, they also scored top for their ability to pay the Government value for money. which enjoy long distance ‘open access’ the franchise premium as smaller on-rail competition with the franchise competitors would ‘poach’ or abstract These operators have also taken holder, such as Doncaster, York, their business. However, new statistics the decision to directly serve new Northallerton and Wakefield, have show that, increased competition locations, such as Sunderland and seen (on average) passenger journeys brings more passengers to the railway Halifax off the ECML, at their own increase by 42%, compared with 27% and therefore the franchise holder. risk and initiative, which the franchise for those without competition, such as Take ‘East Coast’; it is easily able to pay avoids. This has led to private sector Leeds. (See Table 2). its premiums (which have increased investment in disused and near

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derelict stations such as the locally order to maintain and boost their infamous Wakefield Kirkgate which role on the network. is enjoying millions of pounds of new • detail, in light of the rail franchise investment and, importantly, will now collapse of 2012, how open access become manned. At Eaglescliffe, near should play a bigger part alongside Middlesbrough, similar investments soon to be re-let franchises. are underway. A new consultation into increasing Network Rail and the Office for Rail open access, announced this summer, Regulation must now be mandated to: is welcome and its conclusions • encourage as much competition as are much anticipated. More rail possible between train companies competition is in the interests of the and to free up as many routes as passenger, the industry, the regions possible. Eg. Network Rail must also and the Government; let’s hope the be better incentivised to maximise right decisions are taken for the right the capacity available on all routes reasons. through its role in the timetabling Tony Lodge is a Research Fellow at the process. Centre for Policy Studies and author • work and make sure that the rail of, ‘Rail’s Second Chance – putting network is used most effectively competition back on track’ published with a view to better rail this Spring by the CPS. At the 2013 competition, where capacity exists. Conservative Party Conference on Tuesday October 1st at 1pm the Centre • identify and explain to Ministers and for Policy Studies in association with Parliament the benefits of more rail Conservative Transport Group and competition (alongside franchises) Virgin Trains will host ‘The Future and how it can reduce industry costs of the Railways: 20 years since and boost passenger satisfaction, in privatisation´ in the Pankhurst Room line with initial Conservative rail of the Radisson Blu Hotel, Manchester. privatisation ambitions. The Rail Minister will be in attendance. • act as an official link between open access operators and the DfT in

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Localism: Our RSVP Has Been Lost In The Post

down version of previous planning do so unilaterally. It seems obvious policy intended to make the system that an ideal way to legitimise local easier to understand. This innovation government once more would be to reflected the government’s stated involve it in that incredibly pressing intention to revitalise the planning problem that is the housing crisis. system so as to encourage home by Crucially, however, the government improvements for the good of the Joshua Crossley must also avoid delegating the nation’s economic performance and the task entirely to local government. construction of new homes to provide Affordable housing is lacking because for the thousands of people searching prices are too high and prices will only for increasingly unattainable affordable fall if supply increases; this will only housing. happen, however, if developers are e need a totally different What the government has not given access to greater swathes of land. approach to governing, recognised, however, is that Localism can more often than not be one that involves people constructing a new framework is an obstacle to land availability because W of nimbyism and fear on the part of ‘in making the decisions that affect meaningless if you are building on them.’ In its 2010 general election old foundations which are themselves councillors who do not relish having manifesto, pointedly entitled ‘An in desperate need of rejuvenation. to tell their constituents that more Invitation to Join the Government of Moreover, a framework does not by houses are going to be built in their Britain’, the Conservative Party made itself constitute a completed project: community. What the government a clear commitment to grant more further design and construction must do, therefore, is work alongside power to local government and, in is required to finish the job. The local government to agree targets turn, to empower individuals. The government must realise that stated and objectives but then allow local party promised, furthermore, to ‘put intentions do not automatically become councillors the freedom to determine neighbourhoods in charge of planning worthwhile actions and that initiative the best way to deliver them. the way their communities develop’ and boldness are necessary if we are to The Conservative Party did not win and to make it easier to get on the see genuine improvements. It therefore the general election that brought it to housing ladder. The silent sidelining has to face the fact that it must build a power. Political theorists might suggest of localism from the government’s new planning system but must not do as a result that its governance is, to a agenda has shown these to be hollow so unilaterally. degree, in need of a legitimacy boost. words. At the same time as the housing crisis, Extending its invitation once again Housing is one of the foremost local government also faces a crisis would allow the government to see its challenges faced by both central and of relevance. Turnout in the recent stated intention of including people in local government today. The simple local elections was depressingly low the governing process become political truth we must accept is that we live and included, in Buckinghamshire, reality and contribute to a long-term solution for the housing crisis. in a country with too few houses for a fall in turnout of 25% on the last its growing population. In 2010, the county council elections in 2009. For now, it looks like our RSVP has Conservatives pledged to ‘create a Local government is the lowest tier been lost in the post, but to have property-owning democracy where of representation in our democratic any chance of success in 2015 the everyone has the chance to own their system; it should, arguably, be the government must endeavour to home’. According to the National tier most relevant to individuals respond. Planning, made all the more Housing Federation’s ‘Yes to Homes’ because the decisions made by local important by the housing crisis, is campaign, the average London house representatives are in general more arguably the perfect vehicle through price of £421,395 is 15.6 times larger applicable to citizens than those made which to do so. Encouraging and than the median London income while higher up. Instead, and tragically, local even requiring local politicians to in the North East 1 in 12 families is on a government is largely ignored and contribute to the task of formulating a waiting list for social housing. We face belittled. new planning setup alongside central a crisis in housing which will only get government will help construct a better worse unless measures are introduced Local government is not worth the system. Moreover, it will help towards to revitalise the planning system; if the paper it is written on in its present the construction of a new relationship government is to live up to its pledge, form. It is far too late in the life of between central and local government it therefore has no choice but to grab the current Parliament to embark on that is so badly needed not only for the bull by the horns. a wholesale programme of reform, the efficiency and legitimacy of our as much as it is needed, but the democratic system, but the legitimacy Admittedly, the government has not government must still aim to make of our government too. been completely lethargic in this area. good on its promise to devolve It has, though, been fairly lethargic. In more power. I have already stated March 2012 it published the National that the government must build a Planning Policy Framework, a slimmed new planning system but must not

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A Case for the Marriage (Same Sex Couples) Bill

Marriage rates in Europe have been the introduction of same-sex marriage in almost constant decline since 1960, in various EU member states has and from among the EU 27, it was not caused dramatic increases in the only in Malta that more marriages numbers of marriages registered, the were registered in 2011 than in 1960. decline of marriage is part of larger by Marriage rates have also declined in social changes over longer periods Matthew McCarthy-Rechowicz the countries of the OECD. In the of time. Specifically, the Coalition UK, marriage rates rose from 7.5 for Marriage claims that, in the case per 1000 inhabitants in 1960 to 8.5 of Spain, ‘after gay marriage was in 1970, despite the legalisation of introduced, marriage rates across homosexuality in 1967, but were in the whole population plummeted.’ steady decline until 2009 (4.3 per 1000 Using the same statistics on which he Marriage (Same Sex Couples) inhabitants) before rising slightly in the Coalition for Marriage bases this Bill is undoubtedly one of the 2010 (4.5 per 1000 inhabitants). In claim, it is clear that there was a drop most contentious pieces of Sweden, the marriage rate increased in the crude marriage rate after 2005, T from 4.5 in 2000 to 5.1 in 2009, then to the year in which same-sex marriage legislation to have come before the Parliament in recent years. At its third 5.3 in 2010 before falling to 5.0 in 2011. was legalised in Spain, but the drop reading, although the Bill passed with Same-sex marriage became legal in was less steep than that between a comfortable majority, it split the 2009. 2004 and 2005, and far less dramatic than that which occurred between Conservative Party, with slightly more Conversely, divorce rates in the 2008 and 2009. This indicates that Conservative MPs voting against than EU 27 have experienced constant economic circumstances could be more for. increases since 1970. The trend is also responsible than equal marriage for visible among the majority of OECD This opposition came despite the fact the recent drop in the overall marriage nations. In the UK, there was one that the bill is inherently conservative rate. In any case, the decline in crude divorce per 1000 inhabitants in 1970. in the importance it places on marriage rates in Spain from 2005 The rate peaked in 1990 (2.7 per 1000 marriage. onwards is part of a decline which, inhabitants) and stood at 2.1 in 2010. as in the rest of Europe, has been Opponents worry that the bill will The Coalition for Marriage claims in progress since at least 1960. EU restrict the freedom of religious groups that ‘the law has never fundamentally statistics for Spain show a decline from who do not believe in equal marriage. altered the essential nature of marriage: 7.8 marriages per 1000 inhabitants in However, under existing legislation the a lifelong commitment between one 1960 to just 3.4 in 2011. freedom of (albeit smaller) religious man and one woman’. While most groups who wish to celebrate same- countries have not legalised same- While public opinion polls conducted sex marriages is already curtailed. If sex marriage, marriage itself is no in recent months variously show the religious freedom of these groups longer seen as a commitment which is majorities of the population supporting is no less important than the freedom necessary or lifelong. or opposing marriage equality, the of those who oppose equal marriage, data suggest that public practice has Alongside a decrease in marriage and then the bill will actually extend rather already diminished the importance increase in divorce, there has also been than curtail religious freedom. The of traditional marriage. The statistics an increase in the number of children bill does not impose new restrictions do not support claims that marriage born outside marriage. In the UK, the on denominations which oppose the loses its value as a direct result of the percentage of births outside marriage legislation, but removes restrictions on introduction of equal marriage. Indeed, has increased from 5.2% in 1960 to other groups, such as the Quakers and it is precisely the strong desire of those 47.3% in 2011. This trend is reflected Reform and Liberal Judaism, who wish who wish to marry and campaign to across the EU 27, and only in Greece to solemnise weddings between same- be allowed to do so which shows that is the percentage of births outside sex partners. marriage still has value. marriage in single figures. Clearly, an Opponents’ fears of a decline in the increasing number of people no longer Traditional marriage may be under importance of marriage may not be see marriage as a necessary foundation threat, but it is not gay marriage which unfounded, but it is wrong to seek the for children and family. poses this threat. By protecting the cause of this decline in equal marriage. spirit of marriage and extending its These statistics call into question the Statistics show that attitudes towards privileges and obligations to gay and Coalition for Marriage’s claim that marriage, divorce and the family lesbian couples, the Conservatives ‘[e]vidence shows that redefining have changed dramatically in recent preserve rather than destroy this marriage actually undermines support decades. important social institution. for marriage in wider society.’ While

Crossbow 2013-10.indd 49 26/09/2013 12:03:51 50 COMMENT Crossbow Magazine September 2013 It is time for the state to divorce from marriage altogether.

n May 213 Archbishop Carey described inevitably segway into. opponents to the Same Sex Marriage Bill Long before Tim Loughton was putting in Britain as being treated similarly to the I forward amendments to the Same Sex Marriage Jewish population in Nazi Germany. Only Bill regarding the extension of civil partnership when opponents of the Bill are imprisoned and to all, I was arguing for it, and Peter Tatchell executed will that be true, but what is certainly has been making the same argument since true is that as soon as one reveals opposition 2010. On reflection it seems bizarre that this or even query to the Same Sex Marriage Bill, was not part of the Civil Partnership act in it becomes impossible to get across why 2004. Many have argued that gay marriage before the debate is shut down under cries of Ben Harris-Quinney is an unnecessary policy in light of the Civil homophobia and vitriolic and organised abuse. Partnership Act, but if equality is the aim then The process, once sold as a wondrous civil partnership has offered us nothing other progressive, detoxifying, and unifying measure, than further segregation. has been an appalling advert for debate and Matrimony is a religious institution, whereas democracy in Britain. Moreover it has turned love and union of two people is of an entirely a faultline in the Conservative Party into an human foundation. Many atheists, and also irreparable chasm. those who wish to unionise in a purely platonic Conservative Grassroots is an organisation relationship, believe that they should have the that grew up around the concern over the same rights as same sex couples to unionise disdain that had been shown to dissenting and enjoy the resultant legal and tax privileges party members, and the perceived disconnect equivalent to marriage, without having to enter between the top and bottom of the party – a into the formal and traditional institution of disconnect that is underlined almost perfectly (religious) marriage. by “loongate” and the reaction to it. A number I have always found the state’s role in marriage of Conservative Grassroots members signed to be bizarre. If a person is not religious and and delivered a series of letters outlining wishes to unionise with another person, why their reasons for opposition to the Same Sex should the state’s role or approval of that be Marriage Bill. any greater than it is in the case of a religious I didn’t sign those letters, because my reasons marriage? Does anyone really have great for opposing Same Sex Marriage were rather enough reverence for the state that they feel different to those who signed. And whilst in not believing in God or being of faith, the I am in no doubt that the majority of the state is a surrogate for the same role? If I don’t Conservative Party is opposed to Same Sex marry in Church, the last institution I would Marriage, I am equally sure we all have wish to marry before is the state. different reasons behind our opposition. It should be clear now, at least from a The broadcaster published an article Conservative Party point of view, that pursuing shortly before the second reading of the Same Same Sex Marriage was a terrible idea. But if Sex Marriage Bill assuming that anyone who we are going to do it as a nation, rather than is gay couldn’t possibly oppose same sex “whacking it through”, we may as well take the marriage, and vaguely threatening that if gay or time to properly and philosophically explore bisexual Members who had kept their sexuality what the state’s role in the union and marriage private did so, they would be publicly “outed”. of its citizens is. The sexuality of Members of Parliament should The opposition to Tim Loughton’s amendment bear no influence on their consideration of the to extend civil partnership to all, rushed out by merits of any legislation, legislation which in Maria Miller, was that it may cost the exchequer this case is porous and absent consideration £4.5 billion. Whilst those figures were strongly of the wider public and legal debate it will disputed, the fundamental reasons behind

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them are that the resultant tax privileges would save those unionising in civil partnership that amount in tax. Rather than cause for concern, as a conservative, cutting tax whilst delivering a more stable society sounds like a good thing. In fact, delivering a legal framework and tax incentives for those who want to unionise and live together is the only role the state should have in forming unions between its citizens. Anything further should be up to the individuals in question. In France the marriage ceremony is entirely separate from the state, but wherever or however citizens choose to mark their union, they are required to also register a document with the state that has a purely legal function. Peter Tatchell has further made arguments in defence of “polygamous” civil partnership, and whilst I see significant problems with three or five people unionising in a or a Mosque and calling it marriage, I see nothing wrong with a private ceremony in which they call it what they like, and that arrangement then being formalised before the state in what is simply a legal contract between any number of people. The government has a problem with that, because it knows it will be granting tax privileges to an inordinate amount of people, but provided it was entirely separate from religious marriage, I doubt the general public would have. This debate around civil partnership will now come before Parliament whatever happens to the Same Sex Marriage Bill, and I have no doubt that it will force us to explore more deeply what the state’s role in marriage should be. Now is therefore as good a time as any for the state to leave marriage to religious institutions and individuals to decide how they want to unionise and marry, and take the step back from marriage that now seems inevitable. The state’s interference and attempted re- definition of marriage appears to me to be nothing other than cultural Marxism and should be a source of immense shame for any conservatives associated. The state’s divorce from the ceremony of marriage, while delivering tax cuts and a more stable and free model of society, is conservatism of the highest order. Ben Harris Quinney is Chairman of the Bow Group & Director of @torygrassroots

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Marriage and fathers make a difference

upporting marriage was a key and rise of family breakdown and the devastating by distinctive element of the Cameron sales toll this takes on children, families and society. Dr Samantha Callan Spitch in the campaign to succeed Michael Looking across the nation, the formation of Howard as leader of the Conservative Party. lone-parent families has continued to rise, As a message it was popular not just with unabated since 2010, at a rate of 20,000 per grassroots members but also with people year. By 2015 we will have crashed through across the country. Polling carried out by the two million barrier. That’s three million the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) since 2006, children growing up in households where when it hosted the highly influential Social income poverty is two and a half times more Justice Policy Group, has consistently shown likely; women’s income immediately drops that explicit recognition of commitment in (on average) by more than 10 per cent when relationships is favoured by people across the families split. Even in Sweden, the most social and political spectrum. generous welfare regime in the world, lone- parent households are far more likely than Last time we polled the public on their support other family types to be struggling to make for recognising marriage in the tax system, ends meet. over 70 per cent of those expressing an opinion favoured introducing an extra tax allowance One million children in the UK are growing up for married couples. Politicians like Nick without the boost to self-esteem, educational Clegg, who are married themselves but accuse attainment, security and sheer enjoyment of life supporters of this policy of harking back to the that fathers can bring. Of course there are some 1950s, fail to understand that this measure is men whose involvement in their children’s lives not a right-wing obsession or middle-class bribe brings risks that cannot be ignored. Witnessing but an important acknowledgement of the vital domestic violence for example, can scar role marriage has to play in our society. children mentally and profoundly affect their own adult relationships well into adulthood. Marriage creates a far more stable environment But we cannot make policy and shape societal for raising children. Data from Understanding expectations around a dysfunctional minority. Society in 2013 show that 93 per cent of all parents still together by the time their child On the whole, children and young people is 15 are married. Crucially, married couples benefit from the presence of both parents in are two and a half times more likely to stay their lives. After the riots of 2011, in some together than unmarried parents regardless of cases the police and others working with them income and education. It is also a social justice to rebuild the community actively sought issue. Aspirations to marry are solid across the out biological fathers, even if they had been social spectrum but the cultural and financial disengaged from their children’s lives for a barriers to turn the dream into reality are much long time. Not to hold them to account or harder to overcome in the poorest sections of blame them, but to tell them ‘your interest and society. concern could be exactly what your disaffected son or daughter needs going forward.’ This is where this nation’s eye-wateringly high levels of family breakdown have wreaked the Yet where fathers are lost to their children greatest havoc. The Centre for Social Justice irredeemably, or will only ever have sporadic has conclusively shown that our poorest contact, the presence of other positive male role communities are places where intact families models is vital. Considering the many hours are in short supply, contributing to a range children spend in school during the week, of poor outcomes for children. Our research having a positive male role model there may has found residential areas where 65 per cent help to mitigate negative effects of poor, low of households with children are headed by or no father involvement. Staggeringly, one mothers raising children on their own, where in four English primary schools has no male biological fathers and male role models are teacher and in one third of all primary schools in painfully short supply. This has serious fewer than ten per cent of full-time qualified economic as well as emotional implications. staff are male. 80 per cent of all boys in state primary schools are in schools which have three The CSJ’s latest report – Fractured Families: or fewer full-time male teachers and 15 per Why stability matters – details the continued cent are taught in state-funded primary schools

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without a single full-time male teacher. local government accountability for stabilising relationships as part Worryingly, our research found that in of tackling poverty, a Minister for one local area of particular deprivation, Families and more explicit support for Lewisham, London, one third of the marriage and commitment. All this is primary schools have no qualified, full- eminently achievable but it requires a time male teachers. This is concerning degree of political will we have never given that the Lewisham parliamentary seen in this country. Despite going into constituencies have the highest the 2010 general election promising to percentage of families with children do everything in his power to make the headed by lone parents (Lewisham most family-friendly government ever, Deptford has 58 per cent, compared when it comes to the most pressing to the UK parliamentary constituency family policy priority of improving average of 25 per cent). When stability our Prime Minister still has children’s attainment and behaviour very little to show from that admirably take a downward turn due to family ambitious rhetoric. That has to change. breakdown and other adversities, mentoring programmes such as Dr Samantha Callan is associate director those run by Chance UK can make a for families and mental health at the Centre huge difference. They step in to help for Social Justice and a former special children early by matching them with adviser for families and society in the adults who show them commitment Conservative Policy Unit. and help them work through their difficult emotions. A lad whose dad has walked out can make huge strides by being befriended by a man who is committed to his wellbeing – and does fun things with him. This honest appraisal of children’s need for their fathers should not be dismissed or deplored as lone-parent bashing Many of the CSJ’s Alliance of several hundred grassroots charities tackling social breakdown work tirelessly with parents raising children on their own. When we visit them we hear first-hand how tough it is, how much hard-pressed mums (only 8 per cent of lone parents are dads) would appreciate an extra, reliable pair of hands in the home on a permanent, committed basis. They also tell us their dreams for their children and raising the next generation singlehanded never features. When we send the strong signal that commitment matters, through acknowledging marriage in the tax system, it plays into the hopes and dreams of the poorest – and puts more money into their pockets, pound for pound, than raising personal tax thresholds. However popular this measure, we have to be honest that increasing the level of tax-free earnings is not progressive; it lines the wallets of higher-income, dual-earners far more effectively than those struggling on low wages. Looking more widely across the knotty issue of family breakdown, it’s simply not true that relationship meltdown on a national scale is inevitable. It can be countered with more relationship support, more

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How can the Conservatives improve relations with the churches?

of the history and social function of from section 5 of the Public Order Act traditional opposite-sex marriage, its 1986 is widely welcomed - not least by essentially procreative sexual nature campaigners like Peter Tatchell and the distinguishing the institution from National Secular Society. But on the civil partnership, and the importance first day of the 2013 Championships, by of raising a child in a family with an American street pastor was arrested Peter Smith both a mother and a father without in Wimbledon for reading a Biblical institutionalising the absence of either passage that named homosexuality in gendered parent. a list of examples of immoral conduct. Although he was released without This use of language is an attempt charge, the police had little knowledge to persuade the secular listener for, of the legislative changes. Their default unless they believe in the truth and he Conservative Party leadership position is still to arrest any person meaning of the Bible or Koran for has had deteriorating relations against whom a complaint is made. instance, theological prohibitions on with the churches since May This is simply not an acceptable state T homosexuality have little influence 2010. Austerity and budget cuts drew of affairs and stronger guidance and with those who do not share that ire from religious leaders almost as training must be given to reinforce particular faith. Being principled soon as the Coalition was formed; the point that in Britain there is and rational is of course not the sole objections have since crystallised presumption in favour of responsible preserve of the religious. Yet these around reforms to welfare. The free speech, especially if that speech debates are reminders that arguments Archbishop of Canterbury, the is counter-cultural or otherwise drawn from religious traditions – even Catholic Archbishop of Westminster disagreeable (there is a distinction if disagreeable - are worthy of respect and numerous Protestant prelates have between this category and speech in democratic society. They reflect written and spoken against the social directed at causing imminent law- developed cultural mores and sincere harms they consider such changes to breaking, which is rightly prohibited). beliefs held by millions of voters. pose (only the former Archbishop of A Tory-led drive clearly to protect Churches contribute invaluably to Canterbury, Lord Carey, has publicly free speech would generate a change debate in the public square. supported the measures). Their in the direction of British culture criticisms have been couched not only Without re-fighting the rights and too. Public debate has been seriously in examples drawn from scripture but wrongs of gay marriage or welfare damaged by the ‘no platform’ attitudes also in appeals to values like dignity, reform, how are the Conservatives demonstrated by the Queen Elizabeth fairness and compassion that are to appeal more to religious voters? Conference Centre on Parliament common to Christians, those of other It might seem an impossible task if Square and the Law Society, who faiths, and those of no faith at all. one assumes religious people are refused to hire their venues to overwhelmingly socially conservative, opponents of same-sex marriage. Such The single issue which has caused mutually excluding liberal policies intolerance cannot be tolerated in mutual trust and confidence to decline that win over voters who are atheist, civilised society. the most has been the creation of same- agnostic or simply disinterested. sex marriage. Mainstream Christians, Second, as the freedom to disagree However, as the 2011 census showed, Jews, , Sikhs and Hindus alike is slowly revived after 13 years of nearly 60% of Britons – over 33 million believe a metropolitan elite has pushed authoritarian restrictions under people - still regard themselves as through civil marriage for gay couples Labour, the Conservatives can win Christians and over 2.7 million self- against strident and vocal opposition over and win back substantial numbers define as Muslims, the second-largest from backbench MPs (and several of religious people who hold sincere religion. It is therefore worth the ministers), constituency associations, beliefs that shape their attitudes to Conservatives addressing what can be ordinary Party members and voters employment. This includes protecting done, and there are two policy areas across the country. However, although people like Nadia Eweida, a Coptic the Party can develop to improve and most opposition to same-sex marriage Christian employee of British Airways protect religious freedom. has come from religious people, it is who wore a small, smart crucifix striking how little dissent has been First, the Conservatives can make outside her issued uniform. BA couched in religious terms. Rational some easy gains by introducing initially prohibited her from wearing and principled objections have greater protections for free speech. the cross on the grounds it expected instead been advanced on the basis The removal of the word “insulting” its employees to look consistent in

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their dress to ‘improve’ their business same-sex) when these were introduced, fairer balance, defending religious presentation. After shameful decisions but it then went a step further in freedom by giving employees the right in the domestic courts this argument forcing all its registrars to conduct such to seek reasonable adjustments to their was rightly rejected by the European ceremonies. Ladele objected, appealing workplace such as redefined duties, Court of Human Rights, who protected to her faith and pointing out that there rejigged timetables, or job-sharing. such jewellery as a defensible was no legal requirement to change With better protections for free speech, manifestation of her religious freedom. her duties and compel her to perform such simple and practical measures As well as practical manifestations of civil partnerships as the council’s will win votes and add significantly to religious liberty, Conservatives should other registrars were happy to conduct repairing the cultural fabric of Britain. support the reasonable accommodation them. The council refused to make a Peter Smith is a in London, of religious beliefs in the workplace. simple adjustment to Ladele’s work specialising in media and commercial Take Lillian Ladele, a Christian and and deemed her in breach of their litigation. a registrar employed by a London ‘equality and diversity policy’. She council to conduct civil marriages. The was subsequently dismissed. The council subsequently became obliged Conservatives must formulate policies to offer civil partnerships (necessarily – and, if necessary, laws - to strike a On Power and Progress

by Looking at civil liberties through the of the Coalition to appeal to voters concerned prism of the Coalition about this issue. Cllr Robin Millar hange in the debate over civil liberties Civil liberties ought to have been one of the is constant, with a stream of leaked most unifying coalition areas, as page 11 of the Crevelations regarding the state’s online Coalition Agreement set out: capabilities making it hard to sell the argument We will be strong in defence of freedom. The that the Coalition has been as strong on Government believes that the British state has defending our liberties as many had hoped. become too authoritarian, and that over the past There were positive signs that the decade it has abused and eroded fundamental Conservatives would use their first term to human freedoms and historic civil liberties. junk some of the more illiberal aspects of New We need to restore the rights of individuals in Labour policy. At the ConservativeHome the face of encroaching state power, in keeping Victory in 2015 conference, the Home Secretary with Britain’s tradition of freedom and fairness. championed the Government’s record on civil Whilst the Statutory Code of Practice for the liberties. Her speech rightly majored on the use of Surveillance Cameras introduced in Coalition’s early wins in the area: August goes some way to addressing concerns It’s our belief in society that brings me to the about the erosion of our freedoms, the lack second pillar of Conservatism, and that is of enforcement powers for the regulator, and freedom. The historic Conservative battle with failure of the Code to extend beyond public Labour, in which we defend individual liberty bodies mean that we have still to properly against the big state, remains as relevant as address the use and misuse of CCTV. It is ever. We’re taking a million innocent people estimated that the Code covers only 3% of off the DNA database. We’ve protected trial cameras in the UK. by jury and cut the time limit for pre-charge The revelations contained within documents detention. And I’m proud that my first stolen by Ed Snowden have recast the public legislation scrapped ID cards once and for all. understanding of scale of the problem, and the That speech - in March of this year - was extent to which state power has encroached made a month before the Deputy Prime upon our lives without sufficient public Minister withdrew his support for the Draft scrutiny. Whereas the debate used to be about Communications Bill, or “Snoopers Charter” microchips in dustbins, the order of magnitude during his regular LBC segment. It was of the questions in any discussion of civil disappointing that the setback of this legislation liberties is now significantly higher. had to rely upon the Conservatives’ partner Whilst it was undoubtedly in the national in government. A month later, Ed Snowden interest for the Prime Minister to send Sir flew to Hong Kong and we began to see the Jeremy Heywood to the Guardian’s offices to landscape of the debate hit by a series of stories urge them to destroy the classified data stolen which will make it challenging for either half by Ed Snowden, the Government’s focus

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during this episode seems to have been skimmed from the internet only exclusively on national security, whilst increases the risk that some or all of it the “historic Conservative battle with could be stolen. Governments which Labour, in which we defend individual can’t stop the theft of diplomatic liberty against the big state” has gone cables, and the information relating to largely unfought. As far as we know, some of their most significant signal an operation between the UK and US intelligence projects are in a bad governments began in 2011 – a year position to reassure us that they know after the Coalition formed – which what they are doing when it comes to gives almost a million US employees data security. unrivalled access to streams of According to one of the most telecoms and electronic communication disturbing stories to come out of from around the world, including our the Snowden episode so far, we own. know that within a single year there Supporters of such widespread were nearly 3000 instances of NSA communications systems should employees violating privacy rules in be concerned that in the years after relation to these systems, and that on Wikileaks received stolen diplomatic some occasions the violations were cables from a disgruntled US Army willful attempts by employees to Intelligence Analyst, data security gain access to information relating to surrounding such classified data their love lives. What is now known was not adequately improved. It was as “LOVEINT” is just a colourful still easy for Ed Snowden to obtain illustration of the potential scale of the quantity of information that he the problem and the weakness of the did. For the UK government to be in human component of these systems. partnership on projects which are so The Conservatives face the challenge of intrusive, whilst simultaneously so not becoming a party which talks about easily compromised, betrays a lack of civil liberties in opposition, but doesn’t sufficient concern for our individual follow through with sustained action privacy. in government. Threading the needle One of the fundamental concerns of of developing a convincing range of those who are made anxious by the policies for the 2015 election, whilst issue of civil liberties is the capacity for dealing with the public knowledge any erosion of our basic rights by the of these wide-ranging surveillance state to result in serious misuse. This programs will be much harder than can sometimes seem like a fanciful, simply continuing to press the security hypothetical objection. In the case of argument. We sorely need an open the current revelations, it breaks down investigation and debate about the into three key risks: the misuse of the significance of privacy and the dangers information by the state, the risk from of state infringement. The Conservative our enemies, and the risk posed by party must retain their appreciation criminals. Even the introduction of for the privacy of the individual and weakness in electronic security could for liberty. It will take more than the be considered a misuse of the state’s invocation of national security to power, given the greater exposure of reassure the public that the protection risk from the other two groups that of civil liberties remains a priority, results from the concentration of data and that the Government continues and the development of methods of to recognise that after 9/11 the state compromising the electronic security did indeed become too authoritarian. systems that are used to keep our data Many of us agreed with that analysis private. within the Coalition Agreement, and we are still discovering just how Whether it is through the introduction accurate it was. of backdoors, or flaws in cryptography, the flight of Ed Snowden to China and Robin Millar works with leaders of shows the potential danger councils and housing associations to of creating such systems, and giving transform lives and communities. He hundreds of thousands of people tweets on @arobinisforlife. access to them. Fresh from the scandals of the Leveson Inquiry, the public are familiar with the ways in which access to government sources of data can be achieved by private individuals unlawfully, but routinely. Creating huge silos of our private information

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More Time For Bow: The Modernisers Place in the Think-Tank Archipelago

s Neil Rollings astutely several early free-market articles in by reminds, the successive crises this very publication. Their ideas were Todd Carter Athat Britain underwent during best summarised in a book written by the 1970’s ‘marked the tipping point the former editor of Crossbow (1958- in a global shift from a post-war world 60), Timothy Raison, in 1964. In ‘Why of Keynesian welfare capitalism to a Conservative?’ he accused Labour of new neo-liberal hegemony’. In Britain, placing their policy emphasis upon according to the Cambridge historian ‘the redistribution rather than the Maurice Cowling, this hegemonic shift creation of wealth, on security rather was attributable to the influence of than drive, on curbing the powerful ‘about fifty people’. Though obviously forces of the market rather than on exaggerative, this thought has still taking advantage of them…[and] on caused many to question exactly who constraining rather than liberating’. was involved in the progression of The only difference that marked the this post-war neo-liberal network. these views out from a completely For the British ‘New Right’, at least, Thatcherite perspective, as experts the most powerful catalyst has Andrew Denham and Mark Garnett undoubtedly been that of the ‘think- elucidate, was the fact that Raison – tank’. like Howe - envisaged a progressive role for the state in economic matters Margaret Thatcher’s leadership of the too. Tory Party ushered the inhabitants of the ‘think-tank archipelago’ into their This dichotomy sums up the stance most fertile period of existence, and of many within the Bow Group heralded them with a new, prominent during the 1960’s. Aptly described, public persona. As expected, academic by John Ramsden, as ‘Home office interest in these institutions has left – Treasury right’; a number of the grown enormously, with a great deal group’s members (in a similar fashion published on groups such as the to Joseph) were ostensibly persuaded Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA; by the need for a ‘sound money’ established 1955), the Centre for approach to public finance alongside Policy Studies (CPS; established 1974), a more generous, pseudo-dirigiste and the (ASI; regime of improved social provision. established 1977). However, most of Nevertheless, the advancing of such these scholarly accounts give little or overtly Josephite thoughts – admittedly no emphasis to the role played by the only by a few – must still have shocked oldest Conservative think-tank of them many who, like T.E. Utley, had once all: the Bow Group. dismissed all Bow Groupers as ‘wet’, and ‘a shorthand phrase for the Tory Ever since the first philosophical left’. What they lacked in numbers, debates had raged amongst Tory young modernisers like Howe and ranks, following the election defeat in Lewis more than made up for with 1945, there existed several, especially their enthusiasm, work ethic and among the young and ambitious ‘Bow exceptional abilities. Groupers’, who were keen to develop a distinctly anti-socialist philosophy By 1970, as the monetarist tide began for the future. These modernisers, to flow more freely, the Bow Group including the aspiring barrister would come to play an increasingly and his Cambridge important part in pushing for a contemporary Russell Lewis, were new neoliberal agenda under the attracted to the arguments forwarded chairmanship of Peter Lilley. At risk by Sir – publishing to the Group’s mantra – of possessing

Crossbow 2013-10.indd 57 26/09/2013 12:03:53 58 COMMENT Crossbow Magazine September 2013

‘no corporate view’ – Lilley decided, For Bow Groupers, the 1980’s would The Forgotten ‘Bow Generation’ largely ‘out of frustration and come to be dominated by two key From the briefest of studies, it is clear desperation’, that the group should incidents: one vital to keeping the that the economic and social ideas produce a paper warning the party Thatcherite locomotive steady on underpinning Thatcherism can be ‘that it would lose the [next] election its tracks, whilst the other would found ‘in embryo’ across a litany of unless certain things were done’. permanently derail it. The former Bow Group debates in the 1950’s and Published in 1973, this ‘Alternative occurred shortly after the Argentine 1960’s. Not only, as cartoonist Richard Manifesto’ called for the amendment invasion of the Falklands in April Wilson depicted in 1980 for the 84th of ’s 1972 Industry 1982. With Downing Street desperate edition of Crossbow, did the group Act to prevent indiscriminate to encourage pro-British opinion in act as a springboard for the political manufacturing hand-outs; suggested the US, the Bow Group provided an aspirations and careers of individuals the denationalisation of the Port of ideal forum in the form of a Trans- like David Howell, Geoffrey Howe London Authority’s docklands, and Atlantic Conference. This televised and Peter Lilley; but it also contributed recommended laws to allow private event attracted a plethora of speakers a great deal of ideas and initiatives enterprise to compete with nationalised – several of whom introduced Bow to the Thatcherite intellectual milieu industries. In addition, it requested Group officials to members of the too. Regardless of the fact that it that the government pledged to ‘keep influential ‘Wednesday Group’ of never received the same level of monetary expansion from outstripping senior Republicans (comprising patronage from Lady Thatcher as the the growth of the economy’, and to representatives from all factions of IEA or CPS – a likely consequence of opt for an incomes policy only as a opinion within the Party) – just days its willingness, where necessary, to last gasp option. This protest against before the Senate voted by 79 to 1 criticise her governments as well as the Heath administration would also in favour of backing Britain. Even endorse them – it’s significance to the eventually serve as a ‘touchstone text’ though the US had already extended British political process during this in the drafting of Margaret Thatcher’s tacit support to the UK beforehand, in period cannot be overlooked. 1979 Conservative Manifesto. James Barr’s opinion, this endeavour not only marked the apex of the Once the party was out of office, group’s influence upon governmental these instances of ‘bubbling dissent’ tactics, but it arguably played just as became even more profound; in June important a role in eliciting US support 1974 Lessons for Power, another for Britain as the close-relationship felt discussion paper edited by Patricia between President Reagan and Prime Hodgson, followed suite. Lilley, in his Minister Thatcher itself. segment, took the opportunity once again to persuade readers that, rather Moving on, despite intermittent than blaming the much-maligned accusations that the administration was trade unions, ‘it is governments who ‘running out of steam’, most members create inflation…if they attempt to were in favour of Government policy rescue unemployment by expanding up until 1988. Though Nick Perry and demand’. With this sort of message in Rodney Atkinson launched stinging mind, it is not surprising that in early attacks on the community charge and 1975 The Economist reported that the the faltering economic orthodoxy Bow Group had ‘become something of respectively, it was a succession of a monetarist, free-market-only shrine’. speeches made over the next two years Nor was it, as Russell Lewis reminds, to the Bow Group by one of its own, much of a shock when the group broke the recently ‘demoted’ Geoffrey Howe, with convention shortly afterwards, on the fringe of the Party Conference, and issued a call for Heath to resign for that would mark the beginning of the good of the party. the end for Margaret Thatcher’s political tenure. In his own words, From the point Lady Thatcher was Howe delivered a ‘carefully calibrated unveiled as Heath’s successor, up until message’ in which he praised the Prime her breakthrough election victory in Minister’s ‘sustained sense of purpose’, 1979, the Bow Group continued in its yet stressed the importance of the efforts to rally support, and provide a Conservatives being seen as ‘a listening discursive platform from which both party, just as much as a crusading she and her myriad advisors could one’. Later that afternoon, The Evening publicise their core ideas. Despite Standard portrayed Howe’s speech as often being overlooked in favour of the an expression of his ‘growing concern’. newly established CPS, they pressed His talk the following year – dubbed on with policy suggestions, hosted a by The Guardian as his ‘final political succession of major speeches, and – in testimony’ – did even less to conceal a venture that would come to affect the the burgeoning difference of opinion landscape of most British towns in the he felt with the party leadership, following quarter of a century – helped and provided the first sparks that research and support Howe’s ‘New would eventually leave Thatcher’s Enterprise Zones’ scheme. premiership in cinders.

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There’s No Accounting For Accountability

hether as a citizen, a voter, representatives, the civil service and a member of a political the institutions of the European Union. party or a consumer, our W Crises of accountability in the public opinions, our choices and our rights sphere are often met by politicians with only have value if those we elect, the creation of a judicial public inquiry, fund or contract with, can be held a Parliamentary committee or in accountable for purposely, negligently extreme circumstances by the creation or incompetently breaching our rights of regulatory bodies. These remedies and our contractual agreements. are costly, time consuming, too general Ben Balliger Accountability lies at the heart of a to have practical value and are only fully functioning civilised society, the brought about after prolonged and foundation of a political democracy intense public and media pressure. The and the stabilising force behind a conclusions of these bodies are rarely commercial consumer society. implemented and if implemented at all are invariably watered down rendering What seems to have become as regular them worthless. Likewise judicial a fixture in British life as bad summer review is expensive, limited in scope weather are systematic and managerial and too time consuming. More radical failures in state run institutions. From approaches are necessary. the harrowing stories of patients suffering lethal negligent treatment in As Conservatives, we are inherently NHS hospitals to the incompetence of and rightly suspicious of the the UKBA declared as being “not fit concentration of inflexible power in for purpose” by the Home Secretary. large state institutions in part because Not that the private sector is immune, of the issues arising from a loss of we need look no further than the accountability. Large state bodies wholesale managerial systematic inevitability increasingly interfere in failures across the UK banking sector: our everyday lives and upon which we once the envy of the world. in turn as a society become ever more dependent. We the victims of these failures are then subjected to the final exasperation Whether we like it or not large of seeing the titanic travesties of senior state institutions are here to stay civil servants rewarded by promotion, for the foreseeable future and we as ministers of the Crown refusing to Conservatives need to ensure that as accept or acknowledge ministerial far as possible politicians and civil responsibility and banking giants servants alike in state institutions of all being rewarded for their reckless sizes in all localities are accountable to incompetence by obscene golden the people they serve. parachutes, bonuses and knighthoods. Whilst the solutions are radical, they In the private sphere strong free are not new. In their 2008 book “The markets are the greatest arbiters of Plan” MP and accountability where we can vote MEP put forward a with our feet, in sectors where strong range of solutions to bring greater free markets do not exist, whilst by accountability and restore faith in no means perfect, internal complaints politicians and the state. At its core processes, watchdogs, ombudsmen and “The Plan” advocates the devolving of the courts can go some way to mitigate power to the lowest practicable level. limited accountability for those of us Promisingly, in line with this thinking, who have the will, time and money. the current Government has shown willing by introducing elected police In the public sphere, however we are and crime commissioners (PCCs) and more limited in our remedies and creating new planning laws to allow depending in whom and what we are local residents have a meaningful say seeking accountability for we may in wind farm applications. Critics of need to contend with our political

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the principle of democratically elected the devolving of power, making it PCCs who predicted part time, poorly simpler to identify those with specific qualified populist politicians need look responsibility for specific failures. no further to allay such fears than the Civil servants found to be involved highly experienced, qualified, capable in the cover up of scandal and the and dedicated Essex PCC Nick Alston. suppression of whistleblowing, have But what of the accountability of large breached the trust of those they serve state institutions? and should be removed from public service and where appropriate facing The democratic principle established criminal charges. by the election of PCCs could be extended to other public bodies e.g. the But what of the accountability of election of NHS Trust commissioners politicans? by the local people for the local Even greater courage now needs to people. This would have the effect of be shown by this Government in the truly localising power and flexibility pursuit of democratic accountability to those running local NHS trusts. by allowing the election of local citizen This principle could be further politicians through open primaries, not expanded throughout the state by party imposed candidates. introducing elected members of the public, where beneficial, at various For there to be true accountability of levels of management throughout politicians to their constituents the state institutions. Ultimately local electorate need to be given the power people could be invited to sit in of “right of recall” where constituents some management meetings as vote for their MP’s recall, not to be representatives of the public. confused with the “recall motion” currently being considered (at the time If this approach was taken to leviathan of writing) by the Government where state institutions, done intelligently, MPs would vote on the recall of other it could result in greater institutional MPs. transparency helping to restore public confidence. The apparently The removal of intermediary bodies widespread internal cover ups of such as quangos and unnecessary failing state institutions and the layers of local government bringing the associated prolonged death throes of decision makers closer to those they their incompetent management would serve, would not only be healthier for be more readily exposed and therefore democracy but lead to simpler and more quickly and easily resolved at cleaner local accountability. an earlier stage. Legislation is also The EU state as it currently stands required to make the suppression of is at odds with the principles of what may be vital whistleblowing democracy, devolved power and more difficult. Blackmailing accountability, but that is a question whistleblowers in large public bodies for the ultimate democratic expression should be made a criminal offence. of accountability, a referendum. An incredible and obnoxious course of action no better illustrated than by If politicians and political parties a scantily resourced NHS, on the one truly want to restore people’s hand refusing potentially life-saving faith in politicians, increase public treatments on the grounds of cost to participation in the democratic process some patients and on the other content and if the Conservative party seeks to pay millions of pounds to keep the lost conservative there can be a no people quiet to protect the careers of a more obvious and more crucial starting few incompetent senior civil servants. point than making accountability a reality in the British state. But what of the accountability of civil servants? Civil servants must be treated like any other employee, as with the once untouchable bankers: where managerial negligence and procedural failure have been uncovered the responsible management need to be sacked as they should be in any normal business, not promoted or moved or knighted. Identifying incompetent managers would be easier with

Crossbow 2013-10.indd 60 26/09/2013 12:03:53 www.bowgroup.org How To JoIN 61

How to Join the Bow Group

The Bow Group is growing. Annual membership costs £40, or £20 for those who are either under 25, in full time education or unemployed. To join please complete the form below and overleaf. For more information, please see www.bowgroup.org/content/join

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Crossbow 2013-10.indd 61 26/09/2013 12:03:53 The New International Minimalism

he conundrum over Syria is Pact with Russia seeks to do. brutally simple. Do we act immediately as David Cameron It is mind boggling that we even allowed courageouslyT wanted to do, using Putin to play a blinder and suddenly the already established body of transform himself to be the champion of International law, to intervene in Syria the UN and upholder of International to save lives? Law on Intervention. Putin the Law Giver is as comical a figure as Putin the Macho Or do we first look to our collective Male. George W Bush was elected on the security interest against Islamic slogan “A Safer World and a More Nirj Deva MEP jihadists in the same way Russia has Hopeful America” and pursued a policy been doing since Chechnya and the of “mindless certainty” while Obama’s Syrian civil war began? “Yes We Can” has become “No we Can’t” and is pursuing a policy of “mindless Should the failing global War over uncertainty”. Islamic jihadist terrorism, compel a “do nothing” divide and rule policy A Chapter 7 resolution, the ultimate by turning a blind eye on moderate sanction envisaged by the Obama Putin Arabs killing jihadists Arab in Syria, pact without the threat of force is as good Sunnis killing Shia in Iraq, and try to as useless as we found for years with reactivate military Arab animosity Saddam Hussain in Iraq. The United against Iran? States under Obama is all bluster, now nakedly visible to all the crackpots Put more brutally, do we want our wanting to arm themselves with nuclear boys to die to save the lives of weapons. Teheran, Damascus and al-Qaeda head-hackers who are Pyongyang now need not worry; they can fighting Assad? just go ahead building bombs. The world is now in a more dangerous place than President Obama’s pathetic ever before; with no one to enforce intransigence over taking out the 50 international law. different chemical weapons sites of Assad with only air strikes- if that is While the post Bush US administration indeed possible - first without and has been pushing this minimalist line on then with the consent of Congress – the back of a war fatigued and showed that no one is seriously economically exhausted US population; interested in intervening, in any Britain has been emphasising human meaningful way to save lives. rights and the rule of international law as the cornerstones and foundations of its Obama ran with alacrity to cover new foreign policy; whether or not it himself with the fig leaf “accidentally” protected British commercial, trade and offered to him by a so called off security interests in that country. chance remark by his own Secretary of State. Do Secretaries of State make This was a revolutionary departure from off chance policy statements? He past British Imperial and even recent post- leapt upon the Russian President’s Cold War practices which then had offer to internationalise the requisition emphasised British commercial, trade and and destruction of Assad’s chemical security interest of its citizens and weapons but astonishingly gave Syria economy first, (vide Margaret Thatcher one year to do so! and the Falklands) and only later, the need for good governance and stability in Under this scenario, the unspoken the world order. minimalist Russian and American hope is that Assad’s forces will Time and again I have found British continue the civil war using ambassadors going on about human conventional means to neutralise rights in their particular country and only and eliminate jihadists after paying scant attention to promoting trade removing chemical and biological and investments between that weapons as the new US Faustian country and the UK. But the other side to this coin is that fled the country with nearly 6 million though Britain may lack leverage over internally displaced. these countries because we now lack gun boats to send, we continue to These are unimaginable numbers exert leverage by lecturing them on which our minds cannot process their shortcoming on human rights; coherently. In time, the Syrian and using international agencies like insurrection will spread out from the UN Human Rights Council to behind its borders and becoming a exert our influence over them. regional Shia-Sunni war. The death toll in Iraq over the past four months This new human rights based policy is at its peak since 2006. Lebanon, is using UN and NATO institutions was being sucked in with sectarian driven hard by both and revenge killings claiming over a 100 later Tony Blair and saw its zenith lives in the past two weeks and across beginning in March 1998. Then the the border in Turkey the largest armed Security Council adopted a series of forces in the region is awaiting with resolutions on Kosovo the last being, flared nostrils. UNSC Resolution 1244. that invoked the UN authorising the use of force by Any military intervention to save lives the international community where and end the war, will carry a cost; but there exists a threat to international so will non-involvement. peace and acts of aggression. A policeman without at least a The military intervention in Kosovo by truncheon, let alone a gun, to enforce NATO, and in by the UK the law is all mouth and useless. The were underpinned by international policy vacuum and uncertainty now law and the belief that humanitarian created by Obama is similar to the one considerations are the legitimate that led the colonial powers into the concern of the international First World War, because the world community and therefore constitute then, like now, had no one to enforce legitimate grounds (a just cause) on the law. which to judge and act, even with armed force. After an interregnum of Under a weakened Obama, the over 380 years, international law had present vacuum could lead to a returned to Grotius’ ideas who, in his Regional War, unless we find soon, a major work De Jure Belli ac Pacis way to enforce and maintain the now (1625) set out the basic principles of robust and comprehensive body of international law. International and Humanitarian Law developed and honed since the The European Parliaments (Nirj Deva) Second World War. Report entitled “The Nation Building in Post Conflict Situations,” passed Simply put, we must think again. unanimously, gave a Legislative Dimension to the international Nirj Deva MEP (Conservative MEP for community’s Responsibility to Protect the South East; a former Chairman of The binding on the EU and its Members Bow Group and MP for Brentford and States. Parliament stated that Isleworth (1992-97) is the Vice President “Responsibility to Protect” should be of the European Parliaments Committee considered as a means to strengthen on International Development, nominated national sovereignty by promoting to succeed Kofi Annan as UN Sec Gen in human security within that state; by 2006, was in 2012, the runner up for the implication defining that a fully Speaker of European Parliament. sovereign state is uniquely one that is able to fully protect its own people. If that nation, for whatever reason is unable to protect all its citizens, as is now the case with Syria, it becomes the responsibility of the international community to intervene; militarily if necessary, to help to restore sovereignty and legitimacy to that state.

Ten years of sectarian war in Iraq has claimed 130,000 lives and pushed 2.5 million people into refugee status. In Syria, in less than two-and-a-half years, , the death toll has already reached 100,000 and 2.1 million have b ele rat C in g

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