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The World Economy Today THE WORLD ECONOMY TODAY: Major Trends and Developments First Edition 1 2 THE WORLD ECONOMY TODAY: Major Trends and Developments First Edition Joint publication, comprised of selected works of renowned scholars and experts representing: University of Antwerp, Belgium Bond University, Australia Center for Education, Policy Research and Economic Analysis ALTERNATIVE, Armenia Delft University of Technology, Netherlands Zhejiang Gongshang University, China International Monetary Fund, HQ in Washington D.C., USA University of San Francisco, USA Shinawatra International University, Thailand United Nations University, Belgium Yerevan State University, Armenia 3 Liliane Van Hoof, Ph.D., Professor of International Business Evrard Claessens, Professor of Economics L. Cuyvers, Professor of International Economics, Stijn Verherstraeten, Research Assistant Céline Storme, Industry Management Consulting Liesbeth Van de Wiele, Consultant Philippe Van Bets, MBA at University of Antwerp Michel Dumont, Ph.D., Assistant Professor of Economics of Innovation at Delft University of Technology P. De Lombaerde, Associate Director at United Nations University Rosita Dellios, PhD, Associate Professor of International Relations at Bond University, Gold Coast, Australia Ararat Gomtsyan, Ph.D., Senior Analyst, Armen Safaryan, Ph.D., Senior Analyst Tamara Grigoryan, MBA, Senior Analyst at Center for Education, Policy Research and Economic Analysis ALTERNATIVE, Armenia 4 Guillermo Tolosa, IMF Resident Representative to Armenia International Monetary Fund, Headquartered in Washington D.C., USA Xiaohua Yang, Ph.D., Associate Professor of International Business at San Francisco University, USA John Walsh John Walsh, Ph.d., Assistant Professor at Shinawatra University, Bangkok, Thailand Wang Guo-An, Professor of International Trade at Zhejiang Gongshang University, China Tatoul Manasserian, PhD, Professor of International Business and Economics at Yerevan State University, Armenia 5 ISBN 978-99941-2-714-6 World economy, International business, International economic relations, International trade, Economic security, Globalization, Global trends, Financial crisis, Competition, Convergence, Strategic alliances, Emerging markets, NAFTA, EU, ASEAN, WTO, IMF Published by: Research Center ALTERNATIVE. Printed by Edit Print Executive Editor: Brian De Schaine Assistant Coordinator: Mark Manasserian Proof Reading: Xiehun Yang Text Design: Marietta Hambardzumyan Cover Designer: Edit Print Printer and Binder: Edit Print Printed in the Republic of Armenia. Copyright © 2012 Research Center ALTERNATIVE. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced. Stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written authorization of the publisher. For information regarding permission(s), write to: Research Center ALTERNATIVE at [email protected] UDC 330 6 BRIEF CONTENTS Preface ................................................................................................... 8 Part One: Global Developments Chapter 1. Current Trends and Developments in the World Economy (Tatoul Manasserian) ........................................................... 11 Chapter 2. Challenges for Global Economic Security (Rosita Dellios) ..................................................................... 38 Chapter 3. Economic Globalization and Economic Security (Tatoul Manasserian) ............................................................ 57 Chapter 4. The Social Consequences of Economic Globalization (Michel Dumont) ................................................................ 124 Chapter 5. Economic, Political, Legal and Cultural Grounds of Competition (John Walsh) ................................................... 146 Chapter 6. Competition and Strategic Alliances (Xiaohua Yang) ............. 164 Chapter 7. Global Financial Epidemic: Challenges and Lessons Learned (Tatoul Manasserian) ............................................. 187 Part Two: Regional Trends Chapter 8. The Rise of Emerging Market’s MNEs in Developed Economies (Liliane Van Hoof, Philippe Van Bets) .................. 207 Chapter 9. The New EU-29 Internal Market for Visible Trade and IP/OP Logistics (Evrard Claessens, Céline Storme, Liesbeth Van de Wiele) ..................................................... 222 Chapter 10. From AFTA Towards an ASEAN Economic Community... and Beyond (Lyudo Cuyvers, Philippe De Lombaerde, Stijn Verherstraeten) .......................................................... 248 Chapter 11. NAFTA: Balancing the Benefits and Challenges (Tamara Grigoryan) ........................................................... 288 Chapter 12. Impact of WTO Entry on Foreign Direct Investment in China: Implications for Chinese Policy Makers (Wang Guo An, Xiaohua Yang) ........................................... 316 Chapter 13. Convergence and Emerging Market Economies (Tatoul Manasserian, Armen Safaryan, Ararat Gomtsyan) ..... 330 Chapter 14. The IMF and the New World Economic Order (Guillermo Tolosa) ............................................................. 347 Chapter 15. Conclusion and Scenarios for Future ................................... 352 7 PREFACE The book you are holding in your hands was just an idea a few years ago. The idea was to come up with a team of authors from different institutions in different countries and on different continents to first completely understand the real causes and consequences of the latest trends in development; secondly, to be able to explain that knowledge and understanding thoroughly and clearly; and thirdly, to share such knowledge fully with the reader. Moreover, we attempted to draw scenarios for the years to come realizing that forecasting is a real challenge and that future realities are largely dependent upon the dynamic changes that take place worldwide. We have not only stepped into a new millennium, but also noticed that the time runs much faster now in terms of experiencing real changes and developments. In fact, the changes have become more dynamic and no one can argue that many of those events that occurred in the past few years could hardly have taken place within one century. In 2000, 189 nations signed the Millennium development declaration and set Millennium development goals. In 2001 a new world currency – the Euro – was put into circulation; the same year divided the world community into pro and anti terrorist blocks following 9/11. In 2002, when the wars were still being fought, East Timor gained independence and another nation, a traditionally very neutral country, Switzerland, joined the United Nations. The year 2003 was marked by the Velvet Revolution in Georgia; and the continuation of armed conflicts in the Middle East and the capture of Saddam Hussein. 2004 was marked by the Spirit rover landed on Mars. In 2005, the European Space Agency's Huygens Titan set down on the surface of Saturn’s moon Titan; and a new Pope was elected. In 2006, Thailand’s military overthrew Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra; and Montenegro gained independence. In 2007, the leaders of Northern Ireland's main Protestant and Catholic parties reached 8 agreement to form a power-sharing administration; and the Palestinians formed a unity government. 2008 became historic with the global financial crisis and the war in Georgia. Later, 2009 was signified by the drug war in Mexico; the Swine Flu; and GM’s bankruptcy. 2010 marked the debt crisis in Greece; and Wall Street demonstrations in USA. 2011 marked the Arab Spring revolutionary wave of demonstrations and protests in the Arab world. And in 2012, the Iran oil embargo made the headlines and a second wave of the global crisis with new attempts to resolve the external debt crisis in EU. While 2013 may deepen the global food crisis and 2014 could be marked by a new storm in worldwide financial markets, by 2015 a new economic order will continue to be in demand, but yet not established. Do these developments matter for the world economy, and to what extent? We believe that the global economy is very sensitive to each and every major move and change in global politics. Despite the changes in the world political order, the collapse of a bipolar world and other transformations, the economic order remains about the same since WWII. Therefore, the call for the new global economic order may no longer be overlooked. It is obvious that free trade is not always a fair trade, and that the subsidies have nothing to do with a favorable climate for competition. Scholars and experts from Europe, North and South America, China, Armenia, Australia, Thailand, representing distinguished universities, think-tanks and international organizations cover current trends and developments in the world economy, including economic globalization with its social consequences, and reveal the main challenges for local and global economic security. Economic, political, legal and cultural issues are discussed in this manuscript, along with grounds of competition and a range of other matters related to strategic alliances. Discussion of global developments concludes with an overview of the lessons learned from the international financial crisis and an analysis of its roots. In addition, regional trends covering most popular topics 9 including, the rise of emerging markets’ MNEs in developed economies; a new vision on EU integration; issues from AFTA towards an ASEAN economic community and beyond; and controversies
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