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Integration of Variable Renewable Energy in The INTEGRATION OF VARIABLE RENEWABLE ENERGY IN THE NATIONAL ELECTRIC SYSTEM OF ETHIOPIA ABSTRACT FEBRUARY 2019 The study frame has been crafted and developed in close coordination with the Ethiopian Electric Power (EEP), coordinated by RES4Africa in 2018 in partnership with Enel Foundation and with the technical support of CESI. Acknowlegments Supervisor: Luca Marena, RES4Africa Working group members: Ulderico Bagalini, Bruno Cova, Andrea Prudenzi, CESI – Leonhard Braun, Daniele Paladini, RES4AFRICA – Tesfaye Batu, Daniel Mulatu, Bizuayehu Tesfaye, Mulat Azene, Melaku Yigzaw, Estifanos Gebru, Ethiopian Electric Power – Mirko Armiento, Giuseppe Montesano, Enel Foundation Special thanks to Carlo Papa (Enel Foundation) for supporting the study. Executive Summary Ethiopia is endowed with outstanding and diversified renewable energy resources, namely hydro, wind, solar, geothermal, and biomass. For many decades, the development of the electricity sector was based on the exploitation of huge hydro resources that made the electric power system dependent on water and particularly exposed to the climate change. The non-hydro renewable sources can be efficiently exploited in the power sector to improve energy diversification and support both short- and long-term power system resilience, in order to cope with current and future water challenges related to climate change and to support the national strategy to become a world class exporter of large amounts of clean and cheap renewable energies. However, the deployment of RES generation, especially if variable as in the case of PV and wind, shall be accurately designed to ensure the compliance with reliability standards and security constraints. The following study is focused on the integration of variable renewables into the Ethiopian electrical grid considering the development scenario until 2030. It analysed the maximum VRES capacity, as a proper combination of wind and PV capacity, that can be installed in Ethiopian system considering both technical and economic constraints (i.e. balancing resources, reserve requirements, generation fleet flexibility, security of supply, grid loadability and economic competitiveness of VRES technologies in the regional power pool). In this framework, the network interconnections with neighbouring countries and the generation fleet flexibility have been studied because they play a role of utmost importance to maximize VRES integration in Ethiopia, following the load pattern and dealing with the intermittency of wind and PV generation when a high penetration level is achieved in a Country. The analyses clearly highlight that additional capacity from VRES generation can be integrated, on top of the projects already in the Country’s pipeline, thanks to the exploitation of the future interconnection capacity and the operational flexibility ensured by the hydroelectric power plants. In 2025, the Country can integrate an installed capacity up to 2,400 MW from wind and 3,350 MW from PV; these capacities can be increased in 2030 up to 3,600 MW from wind and 5,300 MW from PV. This outlook of VRES generation development will allow to achieve a well-balanced energy mix with 25% of energy produced by wind and PV power plants, both in 2025 and in 2030. The additional VRES capacity will allow to increase the power export providing economic benefits for stakeholders; furthermore, it will ensure high standards of security of supply also improving the system resilience in case of extreme climate conditions. 1 Introduction while the irradiation decreases towards the southern and western areas (Fig. 1). The Government of Ethiopia (GoE) aims at diversifying renewable energy sources to develop a cheap and clean energy mix for a sustainable development of the electricity sector. As highlighted by the Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Electricity (MoWIE) in the Ethiopian National Electrification Program, the GoE is focused on attaining a more balanced energy mix between hydro resources and solar, wind and geothermal sources. A diversified mix of energy resources will improve the security of supply and will help mitigate the effects of climate change. Pillar three of Ethiopia’s 2011 “Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) Strategy” requires that 15-20% of the energy supply Fi. 1. loal orizontal Irradiation in thiopia should come from non-hydropower based 2017 he World Bank, olar resource data: olargis) renewable resources by 2020. Ethiopia is endowed with outstanding and The country has also a promising wind power diversified renewable energy resources, potential. The average wind speed in the namely hydro, wind, solar, geothermal, and whole country is greater than 6.5 m/s, with biomass. Concerning hydro resources, favourable locations where the average wind 10 river basins (including important speed achieves 10 m/s. The locations with international rivers like Blue Nile, Omo, Wabi the highest level of wind potential are the Shebelle, Genale and Dawa) with huge south-east and far south of the Country, but catchment areas and suitable rainfall ensure these are remote from the grid and the highest water availability in Africa behind correspond to areas with a low population Democratic Republic of Congo. Large and density. Nevertheless, there are also locations small hydro potential is estimated to be with good potential (mean wind speed 45 GW and only less than 5% is exploited between 7.5 m/s and 9 m/s) close to the grid, today. with higher levels of population density in the area around Addis Ababa and in East The approximately perpendicular incidence Shewa and Dire Dawa (Fig. 2). Wind potential of sunshine, thanks to its latitude near the is estimated to be 1,350 GW but less than 1% equator, confers to Ethiopia very high solar is exploited. resources. The average value of global horizontal irradiation (GHI) is about 2,000 In addition, Ethiopia has a good potential of kWh/m²/year; in favourable regions, GHI geothermal resources (7 GW) located in the reaches 2,400 kWh/m²/year. The sites with rift valley. Biomass resources from wood the highest solar irradiation are in the residues and sugar waste can also contribute northern and eastern areas of the Country to the energy diversification. 2 thans to the technical expertise of CESI, in close collaoration with EE The Ethiopian power system Ethiopia’s total electricity generation in 2017 as eal to 13.3 Th ot of hich 89 for omestic eman an netor losses 11 for eport (EE) The pea poer eman eclding eport as aot 22 G Anne 1 epicts the generation capacity mix Fi. 2. ean wind speed at 0 height aoe in 2017 The generation heaily relies on ground leel m/s source: he orld Bank – hyropoer ith 3,800 MW eal to 89% of ESMAP) total generation capacity. An important The aoe reneale energy sorces can be proect of water resorces eploitation is efficiently eploite to cope ith the strong ongoing the Gran Ethiopian Renaissance eman groth eceeing 12 per year am (GER) hich represents the largest Frthermore they can boost the eploitation am in frica The project is close to e of international interconnections an the complete an 000 MW hyro capacity ill strategic role of Ethiopia as cost competitive be progressively integrate in the perio poer eporter in the regional poer pool. 2020-202 in is the secon electricity hilst hyro poer is largely eploite in sorce ith 2 M eal to of total Ethiopia in poer plants ere only generation capacity, hile biomass, recently introce hile solar poer plants geothermal an liqui fossil fels proie are still not very common A ide only 2 of total generation capacity. deployment of variale reneale energy Concerning the interconnections ith the sources (VRES) reuires proper integration neighoring contries the Ethiopian electric strategies so to arrant sfficient secrity poer system is currently interconnecte margins an reliaility levels. ith San an iboti for a total of 300 M he aim of this sty is to estimate the net transfer capacity t an aitional optimal amont of VRES that can e interconnection ith enya (2000 MW VDC integrate into the Ethiopian electric poer lin) is in an aance stage of constrction system in the mi- an long-term (years 202 an the implementation of a ne Ethiopia- an 200) identifying possible criticalities San interconnection is aot to start an sggesting remeial measres (000 M) he commissioning of these big concerning both the operation of the interconnection proects an the signatre of generation system an the netor. oer rchase Agreements (PAs) ith the neighoring contries are to actions flly The eection of this sty has een coherent ith the GoE’s strategy to ecome a reeste y Ethiopian Electric oer (EE), orl class eporter of large amonts of sperise an coorinate by RES4Africa clean an cheap reneable energies RES an Enel Fonation an carrie ot in 201 ol play an important role in GoE’s vision. 3 Scenario conitions inally the impact o a loer eman groth has also been investigate. The sty covers the perio ntil 200 ith special ocus on to target years: a mi-term, The analysis has een carrie ot aopting a year 202 an a long term year 200 complete generation an transmission netor moel o the Ethiopian electric The sty perorme y EE an SAID- poer system hile simpliie poer system oer Africa named “USAID Grid moels have been eine or the anagement Spport rogram – System neighoring contries A etaile Integration Study” has been taen as a basis generation moel has been consiere or to set p the reerence scenario, name San an enya hile only an eivalent “Enhan VRES deploym rio wit moel o PPAs has een aopte or Djiboti normal wa vailability”. The reerence an anania scenario is base on the olloing main assumptions: Demand st • reerence eman groth pattern; • average hyropoer availaility Deman orecast in the reerence scenario is accoring to the historical ata; base on the EE ata1 he total domestic • aoption o the crrent ater resorce eman inclding netor losses, epecte management policies; y 2025 is aot 38.2 Thyear G • programmale generation leet hyro ompon Annal Groth ate trns ot to geothermal iomass an ossil els e 1% ith a pea poer eman of accoring to the EE-USAID ystem 7 G n 200, the domestic eman reaches ntegration ty 54.8 TWhyear (G +7 in 202-200 • high integration o win an PV ith a pea loa o 10 G (Fig 3).
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