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Foreign Military Studies Office community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/ Foreign Military Studies Office Volume 8 Issue #12 OEWATCH December 2018 FOREIGN NEWS & PERSPECTIVES OF THE OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT EURASIA INDO-PACIFIC AFRICA 3 Russia Adopts 57mm Caliber as Standard for Future 27 From “Informationized” to “Intelligent”: Chinese Military 55 Mysterious Militants Threaten Burkina Faso amid Security Crisis Armored Vehicles Aviation Prepares for the Future 56 Fear of Islamist Terrorism Taking Root in South Africa 6 Crimean Army Corps Conducts Amphibious Landing and 28 Gaining a Better Understanding of Future Intelligent 57 Chad to Combat Boko Haram Closer to Nigerian Border Defense Exercise Warfare through a Chinese Lens 58 Boko Haram Execution of Midwife Demoralizes Nigeria 8 Russia Conducts Brigade/Division Force-On-Force Exercises 30 Local Companies Provide Logistics Support During PLA 59 African Standby Force: Still Not Ready for Primetime? 11 Caspian Sea Flotilla Conducts Amphibious Landing Joint Exercise 60 Amidst Concerns, AMISOM Prepares to Withdraw from Somalia Exercise 31 An Instant PLA: Just Add 3D Printing 61 NGOs Tell Story of Southern Mali, One Post at a Time 13 Young Army for All Schools 33 New “Fast Food” to Replace Rations and Field Kitchen 63 Tiny Lesotho’s Large Military Budget 14 Russian Railroad Troop Developments Meals in the PLA 64 China’s Racism Problem in Africa 16 Northern Fleet Army Corps Command and Control Element 34 Japan and India Relations: A Counterweight to China? 65 Ethiopia Arrests 63 Senior Military and Intelligence Officials 18 Cold Weather Tor-M2DT Air Defense System Training for 36 The Impact of Pakistan-Russia Security Cooperation on Arctic Duty India 19 Spinning International Intrigues 37 Indonesia Seeks to Strengthen its Global Standing by LATIN AMERICA 66 Cubazuela Intelligence 20 Russian – Ukrainian Regional Conflict Seemingly Pervades Increasing Military Diplomacy 67 Venezuela Imports Chinese ZTE Social Control System Spiritual Plane 38 Malaysia Arrests Group of Foreign Salafi-Jihadis 68 ELN and FARC Dissidents Actively Recruiting Venezuelan 21 Negative Military Reporting 39 The Philippines Military Commemorates Marawi Battle Nationals 22 CSTO Peacekeeping in Ukraine? 40 Counterterrorism Vulnerabilities in Western Australia 69 More News on the ELN 23 Changes for the Collective Security Treaty Organization 70 Internal Divisions within the FARC and the Reaction of 24 Armenian’s Fighter Acquisition Complete? Remaining and Dissident FARC Members 25 Estonian Analysis of Russian Threat MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA 71 The Flow of Cuban Doctors 26 Closer Russian-Cuban Relations 41 Russia Cultivates Libyan Ties 72 Panama: A Bridge in Latin America for China’s “Belt and Road”? 43 Moving Forward on Turkish Acquisition of Russian S-400s 73 Bolivian Government Steps Up Fight to Thwart Entry of Illegal 44 Equipping the IRGC with New Ballistic Missiles Contraband 45 Turkey to Mass Produce Altay Tank 46 Iranian Border Guard Post Overrun, Guards Abducted 47 Iranian Law Enforcement Forces Receive 12 UAVs 48 Syria’s MERV: Uptick in Anti-Kurdish Sentiment among Arabs 50 PKK’s Influence on Turkish-Iraqi Relations 51 Rising Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean over Natural Gas 53 Egyptian Views on Arab Security 54 Turkey and Kuwait Sign Military Cooperation Agreement approved for public release; distribution is unlimited The Foreign Military Studies Office (FMSO) at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, is part of the US Army Training and Doctrine Command G-2, whose mission is to Understand, Describe, Deliver, and OEWATCH Assess the conditions of the Operational Foreign News & Perspectives Environment. For over 30 years, FMSO of the Operational Environment has conducted open source research Volume 8 | Issue 12 December | 2018 on foreign perspectives of defense and security issues, emphasizing those topics that are understudied or unconsidered. Regional Analysts and Expert Contributors Operational Environment Watch provides translated selections with Eurasia Chuck Bartles background from a diverse range Matti Dimmick Ray Finch of foreign media that our analysts Les Grau and expert contributors believe will Greg Sarafian give security professionals an added Matthew Stein dimension to their critical thinking Indo-Pacific Cindy Hurst about the Operational Environment. Matthew Stein Wilson VornDick Peter Wood The views expressed in each article are those of Jacob Zenn the author and do not represent the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, Department Middle East, North Africa Ihsan Gunduz of Defense, or the US Government. Release of this Michael Rubin information does not imply any commitment or intent Lucas Winter on the part of the US Government to provide any additional information on any topic presented herein. Africa Dodge Billingsley Robert Feldman The appearance of hyperlinks does not constitute Jacob Zenn endorsement by the US Army of the referenced site or the information, products, or services contained Robert Bunker therein. Users should exercise caution in accessing Latin America Geoff Demarest hyperlinks. Brenda Fiegel The Operational Environment Watch is archived Alma Keshavarz and available at: https://community.apan.org/wg/ Catalina Wedman tradoc-g2/fmso/. Editor-in-Chief Tom Wilhelm Editor Matthew Stein ON THE COVER: Design Editor Lucas Winter Foreground: A 366th Training Squadron electrical systems apprentice course student at Sheppard Air Force Base, Texas, puts on a virtual reality headset Jan. 26, 2018, at Sheppard AFB. Image Source: U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Pedro Tenorio, https://www.dvidshub.net/image/4126117/ airmen-gauge-fear-heights-virtual-simulation , Public Domain. Background: Visualization of DTI data, depicting a detail of an axial slice of a human brain. Image Source: Thomas Schultz [GFDL (http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html), CC-BY-SA-3.0 (http://creativecommons. org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/) or CC BY-SA 2.5 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.5)], https://commons. wikimedia.org/wiki/File:DTI-axial-ellipsoids.jpg. EURASIA Russia Adopts 57mm Caliber as Standard for Future Armored Vehicles OE Watch Commentary: The Russian Federation has a long history of using 57mm caliber weapons. The Soviet manufactured ZSU-57-2 self-propelled anti-aircraft gun (SPAAG) was considered to be quite a success during the Vietnam War, the Arab-Israeli wars, and the Iran-Iraq War. Although the ZSU-57-2 lacked a radar system, making the targeting of jet aircraft extremely difficult, the system was excellent at engaging slower moving targets. The ZSU-57-2 and other SPAAGs that use smaller caliber shells, such as the ZSU-23-4 Shilka, the 2K22 Tunguska, and the Pantsir-S1, have an important secondary mission to use their rapid-fire guns to fire on ground targets when required. As discussed in the accompanying excerpted article from Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye, Russia is currently developing its next generation of SPAAG technology, the 2S38 Derivatsiya-PVO SPAAG, which will reportedly be a 57mm gun system mounted on a BMP-3 chassis intended to primarily target helicopters and ground attack aircraft. The 57mm shell is considered to be ideal for destroying low-flying and (relatively) slow targets such as tactical UAVs, MLRS projectiles, cruise missiles, precision-guided munitions, and certain ground targets. The accompanying excerpted article from Izvestiya discusses a recent Russian decision to make the 57mm autocannon a standard armament on future Russian infantry fighting vehicles (BMPs) and armored personnel carriers (BTRs). The Russian Federation has long made modularity a cornerstone of its military modernization. For instance, the Armata, Kurganets, Atom, BTR-82, BMD-4M chassis are all manufactured to accept BMP-3 turret specifications, so chassis and turrets of different manufacturers may be mixed and matched. Since these new turrets are all unmanned, some Russian theorists have posited that there will be no functional difference between infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers in the future. The Russian Federation could possibly adopt the AU-220M Baikal 57mm automated turret that reportedly can fire 120 shells per minute. As explained in the article, the Russians view larger caliber munitions, such as the 57mm, as essential for establishing dominance on the battlefield. Of particular note, there will likely be several different types of (interchangeable) shells produced for these systems to suit their particular missions. End OE Watch Commentary (Bartles) “A light armored vehicle with a 57 millimeter gun will obtain an advantage over other armored vehicles of that same class.” BRM-3K armored reconnaissance vehicle with 57mm AU-220M Baikal turret system. Source: Vitaly Kuzmin Blog,CC 4.0. (https://www.vitalykuzmin.net/Copyright-policy), https://photos.smugmug.com/Military/ARMY-2016-Static-part1/i-fqqrsPr/0/5ecce52a/X2/Army2016-215-X2.jpg. (continued) OE Watch | December 2018 3 EURASIA Continued: Russia Adopts 57mm Caliber as Standard for Future Armored Vehicles Source: Irina Dronina, “Огненная «Деривация»: Российская армия получит новую зенитную самоходку (Fire ‘Derivation’: The Russian Army to Get New Self-Propelled Antiaircraft System,)” Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye, 13 September 2018. http://nvo.ng.ru/nvo/2018- 09-13/5_1013_arms.html One of the armament and military equipment novelties presented at the recent Army-2018 forum was the 2S38 Derivatsiya-PVO self-propelled antiaircraft gun (SPAAG)…the unmanned combat module, in other words, the turret, in which there
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