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London Office Crane Survey Growing Confidence

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London Office Crane Survey Growing Confidence London Office Crane Survey Growing confidence Winter 2013 A Deloitte Insight report Market overview Winter 2013 – Office space under construction Total U/C (sq ft) Let U/C (sq ft) Available U/C (sq ft) City 5,134,000 2,086,000 3,048,000 Docklands 540,000 250,000 290,000 King’s Cross 782,000 479,000 303,000 Midtown 1,061,000 155,000 906,000 Paddington 0 0 0 Southbank 731,000 358,000 373,000 West End 1,461,000 47,000 1,414,000 Total 9,709,000 3,375,000 6,334,000 Office space under construction Million sq ft 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 City Docklands King’s Cross Midtown Paddington Southbank West End 12 months ago (Winter 2012) 6 months ago (Summer 2013) Today (Winter 2013) 2 This survey records growing confidence from both developers and occupiers. Development in the central London office market This mirrors current data which shows that more deals continues apace with 28 new schemes starting since our are completing in the London office market and take-up last survey and the highest volume of space completing of Grade A space is now running above long-term for over three years. average levels. Construction in the City has risen for the sixth Importantly, the market has begun to see the re- consecutive report, and has now reached the highest emergence of demand from larger occupiers. The point for over five years. The Midtown market is also average letting deal at schemes recorded in this survey seeing strong activity, with development up 47%, on the is 83,000 sq ft, more than double that of 12 months back of a rise of 20% in our last report. ago. The growth in occupier demand is also evident when looking at the volume of space which has been Interestingly, despite robust levels of tenant demand, let prior to completion of the development in this the West End has seen construction fall. Activity is down survey: of the 2.6 m sq ft that has finished over the last 36% on just six months ago, due, in part at least, to a six months, only 1 million sq ft (43%) remains vacant. seven year high in scheme completions this year. The These dynamics will continue to fuel the confidence upshot is that construction in the West End has fallen to being shown by investors and spur additional its lowest point in three years. development activity. These divergent trends, combined with a number of It is our view that the market is entering a period of significant completions over the last six months, mean stronger pre-letting activity, with developers increasingly that the total volume of office space under construction able to attract tenant commitments ahead of a across central London has remained flat. This survey has construction start. Indeed, analysing these latest results recorded 9.7 million sq ft currently being built: a 1% fall and market sentiment, and looking at the number on the results of six months ago. of sites which have all the elements ready to start construction, we expect the number of new projects to Positively for developers, occupational demand for continue to grow over the coming months. office space is improving. The latest Deloitte CFO survey records notably improved sentiment amongst some of the UK’s largest businesses with CFOs now seeing fewer risks in the economy and greater opportunities for expansion, both in terms of capital expenditure and hiring. Market by numbers new construction Total number of 28 starts development schemes71 of office Change in construction space under activity on six 9.7m sq ft construction months ago ‑1% Completed office of space under space in the past 35% construction is let six months totals 2.6m sq ft Crane Survey London Office Winter 2013 3 The City A further rise in construction, to the highest level for five years, reflects the growing confidence in the City market. Construction continues to rise, up 15% over the last six Indeed, over the last six months a growing number of months. With nine new starts totalling 1.3 million sq ft, deals have completed on whole buildings rather than a total development has exceeded 5 million sq ft for the floor-by-floor basis and we predict that Grade A take-up first time since 2009. Activity has picked up from the for 2013 will reach its highest level for three years. It is record low volumes seen in 2010, but still remains some worth noting, however, there remains a much lower level way below the recent peak of 8.2 million sq ft recorded of activity in the smaller size bands as companies without in this survey in 2008. large scale lease events continue to exercise caution. This increase in construction is a direct result of Despite this, current supply and demand dynamics are improving sentiment regarding the City of London beginning to filter through into rental growth, with office market. Developer confidence has been buoyed August recording the first increase in City prime rents by reducing levels of available Grade A space (now at a (based on an average 10,000 sq ft mid-floor) over five year low, having fallen from 4.0 m sq ft in mid- three years: up 3% to £57.50 per sq ft. The range of 2009 to 1.4 m sq ft today). The consequence of this rents being paid for new buildings continues to vary fall is that supply shortages are beginning to be seen substantially depending on location, specification and in a number of unit sizes and locations. For example, size (including height) but with pressure on these prime our database shows just four completed buildings now rents to rise we expect further increases to follow. being marketed that can accommodate a requirement of 100,000 sq ft or more. Most importantly, tenant demand is beginning to show real signs of life. Take-up this year has been boosted by a number of large transactions from the legal and insurance sectors, as well as technology and media firms. Development pipeline Million sq ft 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Completed Available U/C Let U/C 4 The results of the latest survey show that the reducing The City – volume under construction % levels of completed Grade A supply is prompting greater leasing activity on schemes under construction, reducing the delivery of available space completing in 2014. This, alongside a quickly closing window to deliver new-build schemes in 2015, means it is looking 41% increasingly likely that the City market will experience an increasingly tight volume of supply of larger units 59% over the next 18-24 months. With indications that City tenant demand is improving, in particular driven by those companies with significant lease events, this shortage should drive further rental growth. This in turn will encourage the delivery of new refurbishment Let U/C Available U/C projects into 2015 and new-builds into 2016 and 2017. The City – number of new starts per Crane Survey 13 9 9 7 5 3 0 2010 Q3 2011 Q1 2011 Q3 2012 Q1 2012 Q3 2013 Q1 2013 Q3 Market by numbers new construction Total number of 9 starts development schemes23 of office space under Construction activity up 5.1m sq ft construction on six months ago by 15% Completed office average size space in the past 222k sq ft of a scheme six months totals 647k sq ft Crane Survey London Office Winter 2013 5 West End Construction activity drops 36% in this survey as West End completions hit a seven year high. We have seen 10 new starts this survey, double the Importantly, only a third of the floorspace completed in number recorded six months ago and an addition of this survey is still available. The rest has been snapped 400,000 sq ft to the development pipeline. However, up by a mix of financial, professional and TMT occupiers this has not been enough to offset the large amount of pre-completion. The slowdown in development is space completed this year. 2013 will see 1.5 million sq ft therefore more likely to relate to the lack of sites for of office space delivered into the West End, which is, by office development than oversupply. some margin, the largest amount to be completed since 2005. Of this, the majority (1.2 million sq ft) has finished Another factor lessening the potential for oversupply is over the last six months. As a result, construction has that the focus of new construction activity has shifted fallen by 36% since our last survey. With just 1.5 million away from the recent development hotspots of Victoria sq ft underway, development activity is now at the and North of Oxford Street, with 70% of the new space lowest level since 2010. recorded this survey being built in Mayfair & St James’s. In total, 42% of space under construction in the West This comes at a time when West End Grade A availability End is now concentrated in this market, as opposed to has reached its highest point for seven years. Does this just 23% twelve months ago. development slowdown therefore reflect concerns of oversupply? We do not believe so. Availability data has It appears this shift in the location of activity is not due been boosted by the completion of a few large schemes to a lack of tenant demand for units in Victoria or North in recent quarters and so, while this may temper rental of Oxford Street, which continue to see interest from a growth in some locations, it is not reflective of the range of tenant sectors, but rather the return of demand shortages that are apparent in others.
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