CBRE Hot 100 the Winners of London's Residential Market
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CBRE Hot 100 The winners of London’s residential market 2–3 It's time for CBRE's annual review of what's hot in the London residential property market Contents Best performing boroughs 4–5 Niche and boutique schemes 8–9 Most affordable boroughs to buy 10–11 Areas where demand is not matched by supply 14–15 Ten towers that raise our expectations 16–17 Tallest towers 18–19 Highest share of private rental households 24–25 Areas with highest expected rental growth 26–27 Commuter towns 30–31 Ten developers to watch 32–33 Bonus ball top tens 34–35 4–5 Top 10 Best performing boroughs Over last year % Over last decade % 1 Lambeth 40.1 1 City of London 194.1 2 Wandsworth 22.2 2 City of Westminster 183.5 7 Islington 9 Haringey 8 Hackney 3 Kensington and Chelsea 20.7 3 Kensington and Chelsea 170.5 109.0% 17.7% 107.7% 4 Lewisham 20.1 4 Lambeth 131.7 5 Camden 123.0% 5 Waltham Forest 19.6 5 Camden 123.0 8 Harrow 6 Greenwich 19.4 6 Hammersmith and Fulham 114.4 18.3% 7 Tower Hamlets 2 City of 19.1% 7 Tower Hamlets 19.1 7 Islington 109.0 5 Waltham Forest Westminster 19.6% 8 Harrow 18.3 8 Hackney 107.7 183.5% 9 Haringey 17.7 9 Wandsworth 107.0 10 Bromley 17.0 10 Southwark 106.1 Here we identify the boroughs with the highest price growth over the last year and compare with growth over the last decade. The really interesting thing is how the price growth has evolved. While over the last decade the central boroughs have outperformed, more recently there has been a ripple out, with stronger growth in slightly off-pitch locations such as Lambeth and Wandsworth. This has been driven largely by a resurgence in domestic buyers. 6 Greenwich 19.4% Price growth 3 Kensington and Chelsea 200 20.7% 170.5% 150 6 Hammersmith 100 and Fulham Price growth % 114.4% 2 Wandsworth 22.2% 107.0% 50 10 Bromley 17.0% 4 Lewisham 1 Lambeth 20.1% 40.1% Brent Ealing Sutton Barnet Bexley Enfield Merton 1 City of London Harrow 131.7% Bromley Islington Camden Croydon Lambeth Hackney Newham Havering Haringey Hounslow Lewisham Hillingdon 194.1% Redbridge 10 Southwark Southwark Greenwich Wandsworth 106.1% City of London Tower Hamlets Tower Ham. & Fulham Waltham Forest Waltham Kens. & Chelsea Kens. City of Westminster Kings. upon Thames Richm. upon Thames Barking & Dagenham Last year Last decade 6–7 8–9 Top 10 Niche and boutique schemes 1 81 Dean Street W1D 2 Gatti House WC2 3 The Palladio WC2 4 15 Craven Street WC2 5 The Southampton WC2 3 4 6 3–4 Great Marlborough Street W1F 7 Aldwych Chambers WC2 8 17–19 Bedford Street WC2 9 10 Soho Square W1D 10 The Pathé Building W1F Our top ten has been chosen for their meticulous attention 1 5 6 to detail with interior design, encapsulating unique character and moving away from the traditionally ‘typical’ developer fit out. Our team spend many hours advising our clients on what is best for each development. 2 7 8 9 10 10–11 Top 10 Most affordable boroughs to buy 1 Barking and Dagenham 2 Tower Hamlets 3 Hillingdon 2 Tower Hamlets 6.89% 4 Croydon 10 Redbridge 1 Barking & 5 Havering 8.84% Dagenham 6 Newham 5.58% 7 Bexley 3 Hillingdon 7.37% 8 Sutton 5 Havering 9 Lewisham 7.71% 10 Redbridge London is one of the most desirable global cities to live in and this is reflected in prices. However, there are areas of London that still provide good value for money and here we list the top ten most affordable boroughs to buy as measured by the house price to earnings ratio. House price to earnings ratio 35 (%) 30 25 20 7 Bexley 7.88% 15 10 6 Newham 7.82% 5 9 Lewisham 8.46% Brent Ealing Sutton Barnet Bexley Enfield Merton Harrow Bromley Islington Camden Croydon Lambeth Hackney Newham Havering Haringey Hounslow Lewisham Hillingdon Redbridge Southwark Greenwich Wandsworth City of London Tower Hamlets Tower Ham. & Fulham Waltham Forest Waltham 8 Sutton Kens. & Chelsea Kens. 8.33% 4 Croydon City of Westminster Kings. upon Thames Richm. upon Thames Barking & Dagenham 7.65% Most affordable Least affordable 12–13 14–15 Top 10 1. Merton 2. Enfield Areas where demand is not matched by supply Merton currently has 79,000 The number of households; this is expected to households in Enfield is increase by 20,000 over the projected to increase by 1 Merton 10 Haringey next decade. However, there 19% or 23,000 over the 2 Enfield are only 751 units in the next ten years. However, planning pipeline, which would there are only 1,200 units 3 Bromley satisfy less than 1% of the in the planning pipeline. 4 Redbridge expected demand. 4 Redbridge 5 Kingston upon Thames 6 Richmond upon Thames 7 Bexley 8 Hillingdon 9 Islington 2 10 Haringey London suffers from a huge under supply of housing, with around one home built for every five people who move here. This is one of the factors underpinning recent house price growth. Here we list the top ten boroughs with the largest demand and supply imbalance, which indicates they have the potential for stronger capital growth. Demand (increase in households) vs supply (planning pipeline) 35,000 1 7 Bexley 30,000 3 25,000 8 Hillingdon 20,000 6 Richmond upon Thames 15,000 10,000 5,000 5 Kingston upon Thames 9 Islington 3. Bromley Although official forecasts Brent Ealing Sutton Barnet Bexley Enfield suggest the number of Merton Harrow Bromley Islington Camden Croydon Lambeth Hackney Newham Havering Haringey Hounslow Lewisham Hillingdon households in Bromley will Redbridge Southwark Greenwich Westminster Wandsworth increase by 18,000 over the City of London Tower Hamlets Tower Ham. & Fulham Waltham Forest Waltham Kens. & Chelsea Kens. next decade, it only has a Kings. upon Thames potential current new supply Richm. upon Thames Barking & Dagenham of around 1,300. Demand Supply 16–17 Ten towers that raise our expectations Being tall gets the headlines, but it isn’t the only thing that makes a tower stand out from the competition. It’s view, South Bank Tower Lexicon Caneletto London location and amenity offer are Developer: CIT Developments Developer: Mount Anvil / Affinity Sutton Developer: Groveworld also important to buyers. Height (Storeys): 42 Height (Storeys): 36 Height (Storeys): 31 Here are our top ten buildings Amenities: 9 Amenities: 9 Amenities: 9.5 that are currently available Location: 9 Location: 7 Location: 7 to buy; they reach for the skies Views: 10 Views: 9 Views: 8 in more ways than one. St Pancras Shoreditch Merano Residences The Heron Developer: St James Developer: Heron Corporation Height (Storeys): 28 Height (Storeys): 36 Amenities: 9 City of London Amenities: 9 Location: 9 Covent Garden Location: 8 Views: 10 Views: 10 One Nine Elms One Tower Bridge Developer: Dalian Wanda Developer: Berkeley Homes Vauxhall Height (Storeys): 59 Height (Storeys): 22 Amenities: 9 Amenities: 9 Location: 8 Location: 9 Views: 10 Views: 10 Nine Elms Nine Elms Point The Corniche One Blackfriars Developer: Barratt Developer: St James Developer: St George Height (Storeys): 39 Height (Storeys): 27 Height (Storeys): 50 Amenities: 8 Amenities: 9.5 Amenities: 9.5 Location: 7.5 Location: 8 Location: 9 Views: 8 Views: 10 Views: 10 18–19 Top 10 Top 10 Tallest completed towers in London 2013 Tallest future towers in London 2013 The Shard The Tower, One The Landmark Stratford Halo Pioneer Point Woodberry Park The Landmark One Nine Elms Arrowhead Quay One Lansdowne Principal Place Vauxhall Cross / – Sellar Property Group St George’s Wharf – Charlegrove Properties – Genesis Housing – Empire Property Group – Berkeley Homes North (CityPride) – Dalian Wanda (Waterside House) Road – Brookfield Europe Vauxhall Square – Completed – St George – Completed Association – Completed – Completed – Charlegrove Properties – 59 storeys – Ballymore Group – Guildhouse UK Ltd – 50 storeys – CLS Holdings summer 2012 – Completed summer 2010 – Completed summer 2011 autumn 2012 – 75 storeys – 436 apartments – 55 storeys – 55 storeys – 243 apartments – 50 storeys summer 2013 summer 2013 – 87 storeys – 44 storeys – 33 storeys – 27 storeys – 752 apartments – Planning permission – 423 apartments – 377 apartments – Planning permission – 410 apartments – 43 storeys – 10 apartments – 50 storeys – 647 apartments – 267 apartments – 298 apartments – Planning permission – Planning application – Planning permission – Planning permission – Estimated £50m each – 223 apartments – Average £700 psf – 410 apartments – For rental market – Average £455 psf – £0.8m – £8.5m – For rental market 100 Pan Peninsula Strata The Heron The Distillery Park Place (Heron Morello Tower Cuba Street One Blackfriars 100 – Ballymore Group – Brookfield Multiplex – Heron Corporation – Galliard Homes Quay Sections I/III) – Menta development – St George – Completed – Completed – Completed – Completed – Canary Wharf Group – 55 storeys – Ayken Group – 50 storeys Development Ltd autumn 2008 summer 2010 summer 2013 summer 2013 – 58 storeys – 427 apartments – 274 apartments – 52 storeys – 48 storeys – 43 storeys – 36 storeys – 28 storeys – 493 apartments – Planning permission – Under construction 90 – 736 apartments – 310 apartments – 284 apartments – 214 apartments – Planning application – 356 apartments 90 – Average £900 psf – Average £830 psf – Average £1,300 psf – £485 psf – Planning application expired 80 80 70 70 Height (storeys) 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 20–21 Top 10 Top 10 Tallest completed towers in London 2014 Tallest future towers in London 2014 Last year the average height of towers in the planning pipeline was 56; this has increased by 5 stories to 61. The Shard The Tower, One The Landmark Stratford Halo Pioneer Point Altitude Aldgate Landmark North South Quay Plaza The Diamond Wood Wharf Arrowhead Quay The