CBRE Hot 100 The winners of ’s residential market 2–3

It's time for CBRE's annual review of what's hot in the London residential property market

Contents

Best performing boroughs 4–5 Niche and boutique schemes 8–9 Most affordable boroughs to buy 10–11 Areas where demand is not matched by supply 14–15 Ten towers that raise our expectations 16–17 Tallest towers 18–19 Highest share of private rental households 24–25 Areas with highest expected rental growth 26–27 Commuter towns 30–31 Ten developers to watch 32–33 Bonus ball top tens 34–35 4–5

Top 10 Best performing boroughs

Over last year % Over last decade %

1 Lambeth 40.1 1 194.1

2 Wandsworth 22.2 2 City of Westminster 183.5 7 Islington 9 Haringey 8 Hackney 3 Kensington and Chelsea 20.7 3 Kensington and Chelsea 170.5 109.0% 17.7% 107.7% 4 20.1 4 Lambeth 131.7 5 Camden 123.0% 5 Waltham Forest 19.6 5 Camden 123.0 8 Harrow 6 Greenwich 19.4 6 Hammersmith and Fulham 114.4 18.3% 7 Tower Hamlets 2 City of 19.1% 7 Tower Hamlets 19.1 7 Islington 109.0 5 Waltham Forest Westminster 19.6% 8 Harrow 18.3 8 Hackney 107.7 183.5% 9 Haringey 17.7 9 Wandsworth 107.0 10 Bromley 17.0 10 Southwark 106.1

Here we identify the boroughs with the highest price growth over the last year and compare with growth over the last decade. The really interesting thing is how the price growth has evolved. While over the last decade the central boroughs have outperformed, more recently there has been a ripple out, with stronger growth in slightly off-pitch locations such as Lambeth and Wandsworth. This has been driven largely by a resurgence in domestic buyers.

6 Greenwich 19.4% Price growth 3 Kensington and Chelsea 200 20.7% 170.5%

150

6 Hammersmith 100 and Fulham Price growth % 114.4% 2 Wandsworth 22.2% 107.0% 50 10 Bromley 17.0% 4 Lewisham 1 Lambeth 20.1% 40.1% Brent Ealing Sutton Barnet Bexley Enfield Merton 1 City of London Harrow 131.7% Bromley Islington Camden Croydon Lambeth Hackney Newham Havering Haringey Hounslow Lewisham Hillingdon 194.1% Redbridge 10 Southwark Southwark Greenwich

Wandsworth 106.1% City of London Tower Hamlets Tower Ham. & Fulham Waltham Forest Waltham Kens. & Chelsea Kens. City of Westminster Kings. upon Thames Richm. upon Thames Barking & Dagenham

Last year Last decade 6–7 8–9

Top 10 Niche and boutique schemes

1 81 Dean Street W1D 2 Gatti House WC2 3 The Palladio WC2 4 15 Craven Street WC2 5 The Southampton WC2 3 4 6 3–4 Great Marlborough Street W1F 7 Aldwych Chambers WC2 8 17–19 Bedford Street WC2 9 10 Soho Square W1D 10 The Pathé Building W1F

Our top ten has been chosen for their meticulous attention 1 5 6 to detail with interior design, encapsulating unique character and moving away from the traditionally ‘typical’ developer fit out. Our team spend many hours advising our clients on what is best for each development.

2 7 8

9 10 10–11

Top 10 Most affordable boroughs to buy

1 Barking and Dagenham 2 Tower Hamlets

3 Hillingdon 2 Tower Hamlets 6.89% 4 Croydon 10 Redbridge 1 Barking & 5 Havering 8.84% Dagenham 6 Newham 5.58% 7 Bexley 3 Hillingdon 7.37% 8 Sutton 5 Havering 9 Lewisham 7.71% 10 Redbridge

London is one of the most desirable global cities to live in and this is reflected in prices. However, there are areas of London that still provide good value for money and here we list the top ten most affordable boroughs to buy as measured by the house price to earnings ratio.

House price to earnings ratio

35 (%)

30

25

20 7 Bexley 7.88% 15

10 6 Newham 7.82% 5 9 Lewisham 8.46% Brent Ealing Sutton Barnet Bexley Enfield Merton Harrow Bromley Islington Camden Croydon Lambeth Hackney Newham Havering Haringey Hounslow Lewisham Hillingdon Redbridge Southwark Greenwich Wandsworth City of London Tower Hamlets Tower Ham. & Fulham Waltham Forest Waltham 8 Sutton Kens. & Chelsea Kens. 8.33% 4 Croydon City of Westminster Kings. upon Thames Richm. upon Thames Barking & Dagenham 7.65%

Most affordable Least affordable 12–13 14–15

Top 10 1. Merton 2. Enfield Areas where demand is not matched by supply Merton currently has 79,000 The number of households; this is expected to households in Enfield is increase by 20,000 over the projected to increase by 1 Merton 10 Haringey next decade. However, there 19% or 23,000 over the 2 Enfield are only 751 units in the next ten years. However, planning pipeline, which would there are only 1,200 units 3 Bromley satisfy less than 1% of the in the planning pipeline. 4 Redbridge expected demand. 4 Redbridge 5 Kingston upon Thames 6 Richmond upon Thames 7 Bexley 8 Hillingdon 9 Islington 2 10 Haringey

London suffers from a huge under supply of housing, with around one home built for every five people who move here. This is one of the factors underpinning recent house price growth. Here we list the top ten boroughs with the largest demand and supply imbalance, which indicates they have the potential for stronger capital growth.

Demand (increase in households) vs supply (planning pipeline)

35,000 1 7 Bexley 30,000 3

25,000 8 Hillingdon

20,000 6 Richmond upon Thames 15,000

10,000

5,000 5 Kingston upon Thames 9 Islington 3. Bromley Although official forecasts Brent Ealing Sutton Barnet Bexley

Enfield suggest the number of Merton Harrow Bromley Islington Camden Croydon Lambeth Hackney Newham Havering Haringey Hounslow Lewisham Hillingdon households in Bromley will Redbridge Southwark Greenwich Westminster Wandsworth increase by 18,000 over the City of London Tower Hamlets Tower Ham. & Fulham Waltham Forest Waltham Kens. & Chelsea Kens. next decade, it only has a

Kings. upon Thames potential current new supply Richm. upon Thames Barking & Dagenham of around 1,300.

Demand Supply 16–17

Ten towers that raise our expectations

Being tall gets the headlines, but it isn’t the only thing that makes a tower stand out from the competition. It’s view, Lexicon Caneletto London location and amenity offer are Developer: CIT Developments Developer: Mount Anvil / Affinity Sutton Developer: Groveworld also important to buyers. Height (Storeys): 42 Height (Storeys): 36 Height (Storeys): 31 Here are our top ten buildings Amenities: 9 Amenities: 9 Amenities: 9.5 that are currently available Location: 9 Location: 7 Location: 7 to buy; they reach for the skies Views: 10 Views: 9 Views: 8 in more ways than one. St Pancras

Shoreditch Merano Residences

Developer: St James Developer: Heron Corporation Height (Storeys): 28 Height (Storeys): 36 Amenities: 9 City of London Amenities: 9

Location: 9 Covent Garden Location: 8 Views: 10 Views: 10

One One Tower Bridge

Developer: Dalian Wanda Developer: Berkeley Homes Vauxhall Height (Storeys): 59 Height (Storeys): 22 Amenities: 9 Amenities: 9 Location: 8 Location: 9 Views: 10 Views: 10 Nine Elms

Nine Elms Point The Corniche

Developer: Barratt Developer: St James Developer: St George Height (Storeys): 39 Height (Storeys): 27 Height (Storeys): 50 Amenities: 8 Amenities: 9.5 Amenities: 9.5 Location: 7.5 Location: 8 Location: 9 Views: 8 Views: 10 Views: 10 18–19

Top 10 Top 10 Tallest completed towers in London 2013 Tallest future towers in London 2013

The Shard The Tower, One The Landmark Stratford Halo Pioneer Point Woodberry Park The Landmark Arrowhead Quay One Lansdowne Vauxhall Cross / ––Sellar Property Group St George’s Wharf ––Charlegrove Properties ––Genesis Housing ––Empire Property Group ––Berkeley Homes North (CityPride) ––Dalian Wanda (Waterside House) Road ––Brookfield Europe Vauxhall Square ––Completed ––St George ––Completed Association ––Completed ––Completed ––Charlegrove Properties ––59 storeys ––Ballymore Group ––Guildhouse UK Ltd ––50 storeys ––CLS Holdings summer 2012 ––Completed summer 2010 ––Completed summer 2011 autumn 2012 ––75 storeys ––436 apartments ––55 storeys ––55 storeys ––243 apartments ––50 storeys summer 2013 summer 2013 ––87 storeys ––44 storeys ––33 storeys ––27 storeys ––752 apartments ––Planning permission ––423 apartments ––377 apartments ––Planning permission ––410 apartments ––43 storeys ––10 apartments ––50 storeys ––647 apartments ––267 apartments ––298 apartments ––Planning permission ––Planning application ––Planning permission ––Planning permission ––Estimated £50m each ––223 apartments ––Average £700 psf ––410 apartments ––For rental market ––Average £455 psf ––£0.8m – £8.5m ––For rental market

100 Strata The Heron The Distillery Park Place (Heron Morello Tower Cuba Street One Blackfriars 100 ––Ballymore Group ––Brookfield Multiplex ––Heron Corporation ––Galliard Homes Quay Sections I/III) ––Menta development ––St George ––Completed ––Completed ––Completed ––Completed –– Group ––55 storeys ––Ayken Group ––50 storeys Development Ltd autumn 2008 summer 2010 summer 2013 summer 2013 ––58 storeys ––427 apartments ––274 apartments ––52 storeys ––48 storeys ––43 storeys ––36 storeys ––28 storeys ––493 apartments ––Planning permission ––Under construction 90 ––736 apartments ––310 apartments ––284 apartments ––214 apartments ––Planning application ––356 apartments 90 ––Average £900 psf ––Average £830 psf ––Average £1,300 psf ––£485 psf ––Planning application expired

80 80

70 70 Height (storeys) 60 60

50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20 20–21

Top 10 Top 10 Tallest completed towers in London 2014 Tallest future towers in London 2014

Last year the average height of towers in the planning pipeline was 56; this has increased by 5 stories to 61.

The Shard The Tower, One The Landmark Stratford Halo Pioneer Point Altitude Aldgate Landmark North The Diamond Arrowhead Quay The Garden ––Sellar Property Group St George’s Wharf ––Charlegrove Properties ––Genesis Housing ––Empire Property Group ––Barratt Homes (CityPride) & Retail Park Tower –– (Waterside House) (New Covent ––Completed ––St George ––Completed Association ––Completed ––Completed ––Charlegrove Properties ––Berkeley Homes (Newfoundland) ––56 storeys ––Ballymore Group Garden Market) summer 2012 ––Completed summer 2010 ––Completed summer 2011 summer 2014 ––75 storeys ––73 storeys ––Canary Wharf Group ––552 apartments ––55 storeys ––VSM Estates summer 2013 summer 2013 ––87 storeys ––44 storeys ––33 storeys ––28 storeys ––752 apartments ––684 apartments ––59 storeys ––Planning permission ––423 apartments ––54 storeys ––43 storeys ––10 apartments ––50 storeys ––647 apartments ––267 apartments ––171 apartments ––Planning permission ––Planning permission ––538 apartments ––Planning permission ––346 apartments ––410 apartments ––Estimated £50m each ––223 apartments ––Average £700 psf ––For rental market ––Average £954 psf ––Planning application ––Planning application ––£0.8m – £8.5m ––For rental market

100 Pan Peninsula Strata The Heron The Distillery Quay House One Nine Elms Morello Tower One Lansdowne 100 ––Ballymore Group ––Brookfield Multiplex ––Heron Corporation ––Galliard Homes ––Investin ––Dalian Wanda ––Menta Road ––Completed ––Completed ––Completed ––Completed ––68 storeys ––59 storeys ––55 storeys ––Guildhouse UK Ltd autumn 2008 summer 2010 summer 2013 summer 2013 ––414 apartments ––436 apartments ––427 apartments ––55 storeys ––48 storeys ––43 storeys ––36 storeys ––28 storeys ––Planning application ––Planning permission ––Planning permission ––377 apartments 90 ––736 apartments ––310 apartments ––284 apartments ––214 apartments ––Planning application 90 ––Average £900 psf ––Average £830 psf ––Average £1,300 psf ––£485 psf

80 80

70 70 Height (storeys) 60 60

50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20 22–23 24–25

Top 10 6 Camden Highest share of private rental households 32%

1 City of Westminster 2 City of London 7 Hammersmith 3 Kensington and Chelsea & Fulham 9 Haringey 32% 31% 4 Newham 2 City of 5 Tower Hamlets 5 Tower London Hamlets 6 Camden 36% 33% 7 Hammersmith and Fulham 10 Brent 8 Wandsworth 30% 9 Haringey 4 Newham 34% 10 Brent

Over the last decade there has been huge growth in the private rented sector, with 1.5 million more renters across the UK. It now accounts for 25% of all households in London and the majority of new households forming are in the private rented sector. Here, we list the top ten areas with the highest share of renters. These areas are popular for a myriad of reasons, including proximity to universities, colleges and office hubs.

Share of private rental households

50 %

40

20

30 Tenant occupation % Tenant

10

3 Kensington 8 Wandsworth 1 City of & Chelsea 32%

Brent Westminster Ealing Sutton Barnet Bexley

Enfield 36% Merton Harrow Bromley Islington Camden 40% Croydon Lambeth Hackney Newham Havering Haringey Hounslow Lewisham Hillingdon Redbridge Southwark Greenwich Wandsworth City of London Tower Hamlets Tower Ham. & Fulham Waltham Forest Waltham Kens. & Chelsea Kens. City of Westminster Kings. upon Thames Richm. upon Thames Barking & Dagenham 26–27

Top 10 Areas with highest 1 2 3 4 5 6 expected rental growth Merton Hounslow Kingston upon Thames Islington Southwark Lambeth

1 Merton 2 Hounslow 3 Kingston upon Thames

4 Islington % % % % % % Expected population growth 18.5 Expected population growth 15.8 Expected population growth 22.8 Expected population growth 16.5 Expected population growth 15.8 Expected population growth 10.0 5 Southwark GDP forecast 43.3 GDP forecast 32.8 GDP forecast 31.6 GDP forecast 38.7 GDP forecast 32.8 GDP forecast 38.7 6 Lambeth HDI forecast 35.1 HDI forecast 35.7 HDI forecast 35.6 HDI forecast 35.7 HDI forecast 35.7 HDI forecast 35.7

7 Lewisham Private rented 32.3 Private rented 23.4 Private rented 22.4 Private rented 26.9 Private rented 23.4 Private rented 29.3

8 Richmond upon Thames Share of income used on rent 72.0 Share of income used on rent 45.0 Share of income used on rent 38.0 Share of income used on rent 60.0 Share of income used on rent 45.0 Share of income used on rent 56.0 9 Sutton Supply pipeline 1.9 Supply pipeline 0.64 Supply pipeline 1.03 Supply pipeline 1.08 Supply pipeline 0.64 Supply pipeline 0.78 Expected 5 year Expected 5 year Expected 5 year Expected 5 year Expected 5 year Expected 5 year 10 Camden rental growth 33.8% rental growth 33.7% rental growth 33.6% rental growth 33.5% rental growth 33.4% rental growth 33.3%

7 8 The increase in private rental Lewisham Richmond upon Thames households across the capital has pushed rents up; according to LSL Property Services, average rents in London increased by

2.2% over the year to now stand % % at £1,166 pcm. In this analysis Expected population growth 16.0 Expected population growth 11.3 we have considered a number of GDP forecast 38.7 GDP forecast 34.3 economic and demographic HDI forecast 35.7 HDI forecast 35.1 Private rented 24.3 Private rented 31.6 metrics to establish the boroughs Share of income used on rent 41.0 Share of income used on rent 49.0 10 4 with the best rental prospects Supply pipeline 0.67 Supply pipeline 1.02 over the next five years. Expected 5 year Expected 5 year rental growth 33.2% rental growth 33.0%

9 10 Sutton Camden 2 5 8 6 7

1 % % 3 Expected population growth 15.9 Expected population growth 18.5

GDP forecast 31.6 GDP forecast 34.3

HDI forecast 35.6 HDI forecast 35.1 9

Private rented 15.9 Private rented 32.3

Share of income used on rent 37.0 Share of income used on rent 72.0

Supply pipeline 0.67 Supply pipeline 1.96

Expected 5 year Expected 5 year rental growth 32.9% rental growth 32.1% 28–29 30–31

Top 10 4 Braintree Commuter towns £203,672 Luton £5,060 2 7 Stevenage 61 mins £176,921 £218,043 £4,816 Most sought after £4,660 29 mins 24 mins 1 Gerrards Cross 2 Beaconsfield 3 Rickmansworth Hatfield 4 Sevenoaks 10 £247,733 5 Amersham St Albans 8 £3,628 3 Harlow £450,622 26 mins £187,618 6 Guildford £4,028 £4,276 34 mins 7 Potters Bar 16 mins 8 St Albans 5 Amersham 7 Potters Bar £479,045 £460,066 9 Windsor £3,160 £2,864 10 Maidenhead 36 mins 3 Rickmansworth 25 mins £563,655 Beaconsfield £2,488 2 Gerrards Cross £761,384 1 27 mins £774,361 Most affordable £3,696 22 mins £3,216 22 mins 1 Basildon Basildon 1 £176,886 2 Luton Maidenhead £3,748 10 33 mins Southend 3 Harlow £424,873 9 £3,604 £245,291 4 Braintree 26 mins £4,492 52 mins 5 Gravesend LONDON 9 Windsor 6 Crawley Reading £434,846 8 £3,404 7 Stevenage £223,220 £4,856 41 mins 8 Reading 31 mins 5 Gravesend £203,995 9 Southend £3,816 10 Hatfield 24 mins

Denotes position shift from last year

Just under 1 million people commute into London on a daily basis. As prices in London go 4 Sevenoaks £559,795 up, workers in the capital can 6 Guildford £3,848 find better value in the commuter £478,774 34 mins £4,104 belt. Here we list the top ten 37 mins most affordable and the most expensive commuter locations. Average house price

Average annual travel cost 6 Crawley £213,528 £4,128 Average journey time 40 mins 32–33

Ten developers to watch

Canary Wharf Group Capco Dalian Wanda Capco

Greenland Group Capco has successfully transformed Qatari Diar its Covent Garden Estate over the last few years attracting brands such as St James Apple, Burberry Brit and Ralph Lauren; Knight Dragon Capco’s attention is now fully focused on the creation of their Earls Court Estate, Amazon one of central London’s last major regeneration opportunities. For this Dukelease reason we believe Capco is one of the Lodha most significant ‘developers to watch’ over the next few years.

The London market continues to attract the best developers both domestically and from around the world. The landscape is continually evolving with new developers entering the market and more established players reviewing their strategy and challenging the big boys. Here are ten we suggest you keep an eye on.

Canary Wharf Group

Canary Wharf Group has already achieved one of the greatest ever feats of civic engineering, turning 97 acres of derelict Docklands into one of London’s most sought after office and retail districts. The Estate is now set to significantly expand by incorporating Wood Wharf, which will see the first residential apartments to be delivered on the Estate by Canary Wharf Dalian . At c.20 acres, this is one of central London’s largest development As a complete newcomer to the UK market projects and includes the provision of Dalian Wanda have announced its arrival 3,000 new homes, a further 2 million sq ft with the acquisition of One Nine Elms, which of commercial space and an additional will be central London’s tallest residential 250,000 sq ft of retail. Phase one, which building. Creating a new focal point for includes a 56-storey tower signature the regeneration of Vauxhall and Nine Elms designed by Herzog & de Mueron, is set to and a London landmark, this must be one position Canary Wharf as one of London’s of the most significant debut developments premium residential addresses. by any developer in the London market. 34–35

Our two bonus ball top tens

Most sought after features

1 Architecture 2 Outside terrace or other space 3 A view 4 Concierge 5 Slick interior design 6 Character 7 Light 8 Top floor 9 Gym/pool 10 Food/beverage and retail outlets

Top ten buyer nationalities

1 UK 2 Hong Kong 3 Singapore 4 Saudi Arabia 5 Malaysia 6 Qatar 7 Kuwait 8 Russia (CIS) 9 Turkey 10 China 36–37

Jennet Siebrits Scott Cabot Mark Collins Lisa Hollands Head of Residential Research Residential Research London Residential London Residential Senior Director Senior Analyst Chairman Managing Director Source: Land Registry, Molior, EGi, National Statistics, , Nationwide. T: +44 (0)20 7182 2066 T: +44 (0)20 7182 2362 T: +44 (0)20 7182 2264 T: +44 (0)20 7420 2004 E: [email protected] E: [email protected] E: [email protected] E: [email protected]

Disclaimer: The statistical Top 10 lists have been compiled from our extensive research, analysis and expertise in the field. However, some of the lists are a more subjective exercise and as such it reflects the views and opinions of the CBRE sales team. CBRE cbre.co.uk/residential