UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, IRVINE The Far Right and the Left Behind: The Demographic Deepening and Surprising Durability of Far Right Parties in Western Europe, 2009-2014 DISSERTATION Submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in Political Science by Trevor J. Allen Dissertation Committee: Associate Professor Sara Wallace Goodman, Chair Professor Russell J. Dalton Associate Professor Marek M. Kaminski 2017 © 2017 Trevor J. Allen Table of contents List of Acronyms……………………………………………………………………………… v List of Figures…………………………………………………………………………………. vi List of Tables………………………………………………………………………………….. vii Acknowledgements……………………………………………………………………………. viii Curriculum Vitae…………………………………………………………………………….... xi Abstract of Dissertation……………………………………………………………………….. xii Chapter 1: Introduction ……………………………………………………………………... 1 Chapter 2: From far right emergence to far right durability …………………………….. 31 Chapter 3: Sociodemographic deepening and durability over the recession …………….. 61 Chapter 4: Attitudinal predictors of far right support, 2009 and 2014 …………………... 91 Chapter 5: Mainstream and far right positioning over the Great Recession .................... 118 Chapter 6: Conclusion …………………………………………………………...................... 150 References …………………………………………………………………………………….. 161 Appendix 3A…………………………………………………………....................................... 168 Appendix 3B…………………………………………………………....................................... 170 Appendix 3C…………………………………………………………....................................... 171 Appendix 3D…………………………………………………………....................................... 172 Appendix 3E…………………………………………………………....................................... 173 Appendix 4A…………………………………………………………....................................... 175 Appendix 4B…………………………………………………………....................................... 177 ii List of Acronyms AfD Alternative für Deutschland ALDE Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe BfV Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz BNP British National Party BZÖ Bündnis Zukunft Österreich CDA Christen-Democratisch Appèl CDU Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands D66 Democraten 66 DF Dansk Folkeparti DUP Democratic Unionist Party DVU Deutsche Volksunion ECR European Conservatives and Reformers EPP European People's Party FN Front National (France) FPÖ Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs FrP Fremskrittspartiet (Norwegian Progress Party) Greens-EFA The Greens-European Free Alliance GUE-NGL European United Left-Nordic Green Left LPF Lijst Pim Fortuyn MNR Mouvement National Républicain MP Miljöpartiet NPD Nationaldemokratische Partei Deutschlands PS Perussuomalaiset (True Finns) PvdA Partij van de Arbeid (Netherlands) PVV Partij voor de Vrijheid S&D Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats SD Sverigedemokraterna SDP Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue SP Socialistische Partij (Netherlands) SPÖ Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs SVP Schweizerische Volkspartei TON Trots op Nederland UKIP United Kingdom Independence Party VB Vlaams Belang/Blok VVD Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie iii List of Figures Figure 1.1. Far right party vote share in national elections, 1986-2017………………. 22 Figure 1.2. Far right party vote share in European Parliament elections, 1984-2014. 23 Figure 3.1. Coefficient plot from Table 3.4, excludes country effects………………... 83 Figure 5.1. Party family positions on economic and cultural dimensions…………….. 135 Figure 5.2. Cultural positions of far right parties and weighted positions of significant competitors, 2009-2014………..………………………………………….. 137 Figure 5.3. Economic positions of far right parties and weighted positions of significant competitors, 2009-2014………………………………………..………….. 137 iv List of Tables Table 1.1. Party families in Western Europe…………………………………………….. 5 Table 1.2. Far right parties in Western Europe………..…………………………………. 21 Table 3.1. Social bases of party support: Education, Occupation, Class; 2009 and 2014 64 Table 3.2. Social bases of party support: Union Membership, Domicile, Religiosity; 2009 and 2014………………………………………………………………………….... 67 Table 3.3 Social bases of party support: Age and Gender, 2009 and 2014……………… 74 Table 3.4. Regression analysis of sociodemographic predictors on probability of far right support, 2009 and 2014…………………………………………………………….. 79 Table 3.5. Voters in the 2009 and 2014 samples, recalled and intended vote…………... 86 Table 4.1. Results from multinomial logistic regression indicating second most important problem’s predictive power on vote intention in next election, 2009-2014….. 102 Table 4.2. Regression estimates on probability to vote for far right party in next general election, 2009……………………………………………………………………………. 110 Table 4.3. Regression estimates on probability to vote for far right party in next general election, 2014……………………………………………………………………………. 111 Table 5.1. Results from multilevel models, 2009-2014…………………………………. 144 Table 5.2. Salience and change of economic positions, 2014…………………………… 146 v Acknowledgements A clichéd proverb informs us that ‘it takes a village’ to raise a child. Similarly, others compare the dissertation writing process to raising a child (although would one hope children are neglected less regularly than theses over weekends, vacations, and holidays). And indeed, like that child, this project’s completion depended large number of people, without whom it would never have been completed. Like many, I think, I chose to write the acknowledgements section last. Ending this process by reflecting on those who shaped it seems appropriate and is gratifying in and of itself, and it is difficult to overstate the debt I owe to my advisors, colleagues, friends, and family. Some suggest that the acknowledgements section is even the hardest to write(!). While I strongly disagree with those people, I have cast a wide net in acknowledging those who aided the completion of this project and apologize where worthy people are omitted. I extend my thanks also to those mistakenly omitted here, taking some comfort in my understanding that the readership of this section is unlikely to be very large. First, I need to thank my committee for their patience, guidance, and support. My chair, Sara Wallace Goodman provided invaluable feedback on this and several other projects, at a speed that was legitimately amazing. Any success I have in the field is in no small way due to Sara’s efforts as an unwaveringly supportive advisor, and now, a very good friend. I also owe Russ Dalton an enormous debt of thanks for his many hours of counsel. Russ served as my advisor for several years and remained an active committee member and mentor. As a wayward young graduate student, Russ’ guidance was absolutely essential. Finally, as a committee member, graduate director, and teacher, I would like to thank Marek Kaminski. I have a profound respect for Marek’s thinking about the social scientific enterprise, and hope to speak for my entire cohort in thanking Marek for representing us during times of more tentative vi graduate student funding. All three of my committee members expended considerable energy and thought in shaping this dissertation, and all remaining shortcomings reflect only my own limitations. Irvine, California is not an exciting place. Thus, my experience here was improved immeasurably by other graduate students, whose friendship and scholarship was a wellspring of motivation. A partial list of these graduate students includes Maneesh Arora, John Cuffe, Natalie Nakamine, Robert Nyenhuis, Graham Odell, Ryan Sauchelli, and Jason Vick. Each deserves considerably more acknowledgement than a comma-separated list implies. I also owe special thanks to Hannah Alarian, Misty Knight-Finley, and Josh Malnight, who were my constant work companions and on whose skills and good humor I very much relied. A host of other faculty and students also contributed to my thinking and completion of this project. Rein Taagepera is a brilliant political scientist, and it was an honor to work with him. Graeme Boushey and Jeff Kopstein, as well as Western Washington University’s Amir Abedi and Charles Hoffman all provided meaningful insight over the course of my student career. In recent years, Camille Desmarès has become an invaluable interlocutor. Additionally, longtime friends like Wes Payne and Forrest Rice—and their families—have been fixtures in my life since childhood and I thank them for their enduring friendship and support. I would also like to thank Deans Koroush Saberi and Bill Maurer, without whose sudden and severe cuts to graduate student support this dissertation might have taken another year to complete. Finally, I have enjoyed the emotional and occasionally financial support of my immediate and extended family. My sister Natalie, my Mom and Roger, and my Dad and Lori, have been tirelessly encouraging. They have all tolerated both prolonged bouts of radio-silence during periods of research and the meager birthday and holiday gifts attending graduate student salaries. vii It is impossible to render in a few sentences how fortunate I am in this respect. Similarly, I would like to thank my Aunt Elaine and Uncle Gary, who let me stay with them in Southern California for nearly two years while I adjusted to the city and the program (and the weather), for which I am very grateful. I would like to mention Jubal, who is a very good dog. Finally, this dissertation was made possible by funding from the Department of Political Science at UC Irvine, the Center for the Study of Democracy (CSD), and the Center for Global Peace and Conflict