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Iran's Ambitions for Regional Hegemony

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Iran's Ambitions for Regional Hegemony Table of Contents Description of the Center „ 2 Introduction „ Ephraim Sneh 4 Iran’s Regional Policy – the Race to Middle East Hegemony „ Uzi Rabi 5 Iran's Post-Revolution Foreign Policy „ Meir Jevedanfar 13 Ethnic Politics in Iran: Post 2009 Presidential Elections „ Brenda Shaffer 22 The Islamic Revolution in Iran: In the Throes of Factional Rivalry „ David Menashri 29 Iran’s Nuclear Policy „ Ephraim Kam 39 A Nuclear Iran – To Strike or Not to Strike – That is the Question „ Reuven Pedatzur 48 Can the Iran Sanctions Succeed? „ Ephraim Asculai 59 Sanctions on Iran: Overcoming Conceptual and Political Constraints „ Emily B Landau 68 Contributors „ 75 Conference Summary „ Amitai Gazit 76 Pictures from the Conference „ 85 The publication of this booklet was made possible through the cooperation and generous support of Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, Israel We thank the foundation for their continued partnership November, 2010 All rights reserved ©. Scientific Editor: Dr. Reuven Pedatzur Copy Editing: Elie Friedman, Esti Ofer Translation to English: Simon Pompan, Ruchie Avital Hegemony Regional for Ambitions Iran's Graphic design and printing: Merav-Dascalu Publishing, Ltd. 1 The S. Daniel Abraham Center for Strategic Dialogue The 21st century harbors global changes which entail hopes as well as threats to world peace Dozens of armed conflicts still prevail at this time around the world which pose a threat to the well- being of various societies Stabilizing these conflicts is the most pressing challenge of our time Given today's security concerns, leaders and national policy makers require more than ever a practical dialogue with experts and academics, in order to arrive at the proper decisions Several think tanks around the world that deal with theoretical approaches to conflict resolution face two major problems: 1 How to transform theory into practical approaches in policy-making? 2 How to establish dialogue between experts and policy-makers Furthermore, the principal challenge facing world leaders today concerns ways to transform theoretical research into solution-oriented policies and actions Goals of the Center The S Daniel Abraham Center for Strategic Dialogue at Netanya Academic College is a think-tank and action group comprised of scholars and leaders from a variety of fields The Center is a unique institution in the Middle East, engaging in both academic pursuits and on-the-ground efforts toward conflict resolution The International Management of the Center is comprised of former President of the Soviet Union Mikhail Gorbachev and HRH Crown Prince Hassan Bin Talal of Jordan The current of the Center is Dr Ephraim Sneh, former Deputy Defense Minister, Transportation Minister, and Health Minister The Board of Governors includes academic, political, business and community leaders from nations around the globe (please see the end of this statement for a full listing of the members of the Board of Governors) The S Daniel Abraham Center for Strategic Dialogue has become pivotal in the establishment of substantive position papers and suggestions for conflict resolution in the region and beyond The Center represents a much-needed approach to the problems of worldwide conflict, offering solution- driven initiatives based on practical experience and realistic goals Its multi-faceted method provides a combination of political, security, academic and economic responses through the dispatching of teams of former politicians, community leaders, security experts, distinguished academics and prominent international business people, offering powerful mediation services in regional disputes based on the experience and expertise in their respective fields The Center also organizes opportunities for academics and world leaders to gather together in order to address pressing global issues via international conferences, round table discussions, and workshops International Management HE Mikhail Gorbachev, former President of the USSR l HRH Prince Hassan Bin Talal of Jordan Steering Committee Dr Ephraim Sneh, Chair l Trevor Spiro, Co-Chair l Dr David Altman, Senior Vice President, Netanya Academic College and Vice-Chair of the Center l Dr Reuven Pedatzur, Academic Director l Brig -Gen (ret ) Baruch Spiegel, Advisor to the Directory Board l Aviva Palter, Head of International Activities & Conference Director l Ambassador Yitzhak Mayer, Senior Advisor l Elie Friedman, Assistant to the Director l Esti Ofer, Coordinator Former Chairs of Center Iran's Ambitions for Regional Hegemony Regional for Ambitions Iran's Ehud Barak, Defense Minister and Chairman of the Labor Party l Danny Yatom, former Member of Knesset, former Director of the Mossad l Dan Meridor, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Intelligence and Atomic Energy 2 Board of Governors of the S. Daniel Abraham Center for Strategic Dialogue HE Frederick W De Klerk, former President of South Africa l Mr Berndt Schmidtbauer, former German Minister of State l Mr James Woolsey, former Central Intelligence Agency Director l Mr Louis Freeh, former FBI Director l Mr Ya'akov Perry, former Head of General Security Service l Ambassador Edwin Corr, Director, International Programs Center, University of Oklahoma l Dr Shmuel Bar, Islamic radicalism expert l Mr Ram Caspi, LLB, Caspi and Co l Att Zaki Kamal, Chair of the Board of Trustees, The Academic Arab College in Israel, Haifa l Mr Yehuda Raveh, LLB, Yehuda Raveh & Co l Mr Yossi Sadeh, advocate l Cmdr (ret ) Arieh Amit, former Jerusalem Police Chief l Cmdr (ret ) Gabi Last, chairman of Delek Group l Commissioner (ret) Assaf Hefetz, former Israel Police Commissioner l Mr Larry King, journalist, CNN l Dr Giora Eliraz, The Harry S Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace, Hebrew University, Jerusalem l Gen (ret ) Mansour Abu-Rashid, Chairman, Amman Center for Peace and Development l Maj Gen (ret ) David Ivri, former National Security Adviser, former Israeli Ambassador to Washington, former Director- General of Israel's Defense Ministry, former IAF Commander l Maj Gen (ret ) Yomtov Samya, former General of the Southern Command l Maj Gen (ret ) Ya'akov Amidror, Vice President of the Ladner Institute l Mr Moshe Ortass, entrepreneur l Ambassador Dr Edward J Perkins, Chair and Executive Director of the International Programs Center, The University of Oklahoma l Dr Lawrence Kennedy, President, Church on the Rock International l Prof Bernard Pinchuk, Vice President and Rector, Netanya Academic College l Prof Gabi Ben-Dor, Director, International Security Research Center, Haifa l Prof Sinai Deutsch, Senior Vice President, Dean of the Law School, Netanya Academic College l Prof Theodor Postol, MIT, USA l Dr Barry A Feinstein, Senior Lecturer of International Law, School of Law, Netanya Academic College l Mr Shmuel Dankner, Dankner Investments l Mr Yitzhak Teshuva, Delek Co l Mr Jerry Feldman and Mr Michael Feldman, GP Strategies, USA l Mr Paul Ahlstrom, VSpring Capital l Mr R Cameron Walker, Vice President, Bank of America Investments l Mr Elisha Yanai, President, Motorola l Pastor Dr Gerald Mann, Riverbend Baptist Church in Austin, Texas l Mrs Tovah Feldshuh, award-winning Broadway actress l Mr Charles D Pulman, LLB, Meadows, Collier, Reed, Cousins & Blau l Dr Nitza Nachmias, Department of Political Science, University of Haifa Iran's Ambitions for Regional Hegemony Regional for Ambitions Iran's 3 Introduction Ephraim Sneh The conference held on the subject of Iran As noted, our conference hosted some of sparked considerable interest both due to the the finest experts who presented a variety of subject itself as well as the high quality of the views, often quite different from one another lecturers who accepted our invitation to speak The guests from Europe presented a softer approach toward the Iranian regime and its The title given to the conference was a true aspirations, one that shies away from and reflection the essence of the issue at hand: expresses doubts regarding the imposition Iran’s Ambitions for Regional Hegemony The of severe sanctions, and certainly regarding main subject was neither the nuclear issue, military action In my comments, I represented nor terrorism, nor Iranian subversive activities a different point of view A nuclear Iran will in many states These are after all the means, lead to the nuclear arming of Saudi Arabia and secondary goals on the way to attaining Iran’s Egypt within just a few years The strategic strategic goal - to become a superpower In balance in the region will tilt dangerously away the long term, say the leaders of this regime, from Israel Immigration to Israel will be halted Iran will become a global power, the leader of and foreign investments will dwindle This is a billion and a quarter Muslims in the world a reality that Israel cannot afford to allow to In the immediate range, it is striving to attain occur The military option as I see it is the last hegemony over the greater Middle East recourse, but it must be prepared with great Iran’s most urgent goal is to take control over Iraq after the American troops have finally seriousness withdrawn, giving it full territorial contiguity from The economic sanctions on Iran have not yet the Mediterranean (after all, Lebanon is, for all run their course and legislation in the American intents and purposes under Iran’s control) to Congress, which was completed only in the full domination of the Iraqi oil industry early summer of this year, should be able to Iran’s ballistic missiles currently cover Delhi, make them quite effective Moscow and Athens in their
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