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The Cold Reality Behind Russia's A Macdonald-Laurier Institute Publication April 2020 Board of Directors Advisory Council Research Advisory Board CHAIR John Beck Pierre Casgrain President and CEO, Aecon Enterprises Inc., Janet Ajzenstat Director and Corporate Secretary, Toronto Professor Emeritus of Politics, Casgrain & Company Limited, Erin Chutter McMaster University Montreal Executive Chair, Global Energy Metals Brian Ferguson VICE-CHAIR Corporation, Vancouver Professor, Health Care Economics, Laura Jones Navjeet (Bob) Dhillon University of Guelph Executive Vice-President of President and CEO, Mainstreet Equity Jack Granatstein the Canadian Federation of Corp., Calgary Historian and former head of the Independent Business, Vancouver Canadian War Museum Jim Dinning MANAGING DIRECTOR Former Treasurer of Alberta, Calgary Patrick James Brian Lee Crowley, Ottawa Dornsife Dean’s Professor, David Emerson University of Southern California SECRETARY Corporate Director, Vancouver Vaughn MacLellan Rainer Knopff DLA Piper (Canada) LLP, Toronto Richard Fadden Professor Emeritus of Politics, Former National Security Advisor to the University of Calgary TREASURER Prime Minister, Ottawa Martin MacKinnon Larry Martin Co-Founder and CEO, B4checkin, Brian Flemming Principal, Dr. Larry Martin and Halifax International lawyer, writer, and policy Associates and Partner, advisor, Halifax Agri-Food Management Excellence, DIRECTORS Inc. Wayne Critchley Robert Fulford Senior Associate, Global Public Former Editor of Saturday Night magazine, Christopher Sands Affairs, Ottawa columnist with the National Post, Ottawa Senior Research Professor, Johns Hopkins University Blaine Favel Wayne Gudbranson Elliot Tepper CEO, Kanata Earth Inc., Cut Knife, CEO, Branham Group Inc., Ottawa Senior Fellow, Norman Paterson Saskatchewan Calvin Helin School of International Affairs, Colleen Mahoney Aboriginal author and entrepreneur, Carleton University Vancouver Sole Principal, Committee Digest, William Watson Toronto Peter John Nicholson Associate Professor of Economics, Jayson Myers Inaugural President, Council of Canadian McGill University CEO, Jayson Myers Public Affairs Academies, Annapolis Royal Inc., Aberfoyle Hon. Jim Peterson Dan Nowlan Former federal cabinet minister, Vice Chair, Investment Banking, Counsel at Fasken Martineau, Toronto National Bank Financial, Toronto Barry Sookman Gerry Protti Senior Partner, McCarthy Tétrault, Toronto Chairman, BlackSquare Inc. Jacquelyn Thayer Scott Calgary Past President and Professor, Cape Breton Vijay Sappani University, Sydney Co-Founder and Chief Strategy Rob Wildeboer Officer, TerrAscend, Mississauga Executive Chairman, Martinrea Veso Sobot International Inc., Vaughan Director of Corporate Affairs, IPEX Group of Companies, Toronto For more information visit: www.MacdonaldLaurier.ca For more information visit: www.MacdonaldLaurier.ca Board of Directors Advisory Council Research Advisory Board CHAIR John Beck Pierre Casgrain President and CEO, Aecon Enterprises Inc., Janet Ajzenstat Director and Corporate Secretary, Toronto Professor Emeritus of Politics, Casgrain & Company Limited, Erin Chutter McMaster University Montreal Executive Chair, Global Energy Metals Brian Ferguson VICE-CHAIR Corporation, Vancouver Professor, Health Care Economics, Laura Jones Navjeet (Bob) Dhillon University of Guelph Executive Vice-President of President and CEO, Mainstreet Equity Jack Granatstein the Canadian Federation of Corp., Calgary Historian and former head of the Independent Business, Vancouver Canadian War Museum Jim Dinning Table of contents MANAGING DIRECTOR Former Treasurer of Alberta, Calgary Patrick James Brian Lee Crowley, Ottawa Dornsife Dean’s Professor, David Emerson University of Southern California SECRETARY Corporate Director, Vancouver Vaughn MacLellan Rainer Knopff DLA Piper (Canada) LLP, Toronto Richard Fadden Professor Emeritus of Politics, Former National Security Advisor to the University of Calgary Executive Summary ................................................................................................ 4 TREASURER Prime Minister, Ottawa Martin MacKinnon Larry Martin Co-Founder and CEO, B4checkin, Brian Flemming Principal, Dr. Larry Martin and Sommaire ................................................................................................................ 6 Halifax International lawyer, writer, and policy Associates and Partner, advisor, Halifax Agri-Food Management Excellence, Introduction ............................................................................................................ 8 DIRECTORS Inc. Wayne Critchley Robert Fulford The Russian Charm Offensive ................................................................................. 8 Senior Associate, Global Public Former Editor of Saturday Night magazine, Christopher Sands Affairs, Ottawa columnist with the National Post, Ottawa Senior Research Professor, Johns The Cold Reality ...................................................................................................... 9 Hopkins University Blaine Favel Wayne Gudbranson Elliot Tepper The Russia-China Tandem...................................................................................... 13 CEO, Kanata Earth Inc., Cut Knife, CEO, Branham Group Inc., Ottawa Senior Fellow, Norman Paterson Saskatchewan Calvin Helin School of International Affairs, Reality and Response ............................................................................................ 15 Colleen Mahoney Aboriginal author and entrepreneur, Carleton University Vancouver Conclusion ............................................................................................................ 17 Sole Principal, Committee Digest, William Watson Toronto Peter John Nicholson Associate Professor of Economics, About the Author ................................................................................................... 19 Jayson Myers Inaugural President, Council of Canadian McGill University CEO, Jayson Myers Public Affairs Academies, Annapolis Royal References ............................................................................................................. 21 Inc., Aberfoyle Hon. Jim Peterson Dan Nowlan Former federal cabinet minister, Endnotes................................................................................................................ 24 Vice Chair, Investment Banking, Counsel at Fasken Martineau, Toronto National Bank Financial, Toronto Barry Sookman Gerry Protti Senior Partner, McCarthy Tétrault, Toronto Chairman, BlackSquare Inc. Jacquelyn Thayer Scott Photo: Major Jean-Francois Robert, Commander Assessment Team Commander YK02-2018-0013-0001 | Calgary Past President and Professor, Cape Breton combatcamera.forces.gc.ca Vijay Sappani University, Sydney Co-Founder and Chief Strategy Rob Wildeboer Officer, TerrAscend, Mississauga Executive Chairman, Martinrea The authors of this document have worked independently and are solely responsible Veso Sobot International Inc., Vaughan for the views presented here. The opinions are not necessarily those of Director of Corporate Affairs, IPEX the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, its Directors or Supporters. Group of Companies, Toronto Copyright © 2020 Macdonald-Laurier Institute. May be reproduced freely for non-profit and educational purposes. For more information visit: www.MacdonaldLaurier.ca Executive Summary ith the advent of global warming, the Arctic is becoming increasingly attractive due to W its vast resources and navigational potential. Ideally, Arctic states would work together to ensure exploration of this region and sharing potential benefits, including the two countries with the longest Arctic coastlines – Russia and Canada. However, this ideal of cooperation can- not disregard geo-strategic, geo-economic, and ecological reality. Moscow argues Arctic issues can be segregated from broader geo-strategic competition and from increasingly aggressive Russian behaviour elsewhere. Yet, those who buy into the Krem- lin’s rhetoric are likely to find themselves on a fool’s errand. This paper examines several sub- stantive concerns regarding the Russian strategy in the Arctic. A closer look at both Russia’s rhetoric and activities in the region reveals the claims of Arctic military exceptionalism are entirely false. Moscow’s rhetoric at home is telling. Russia’s military doctrine lists NATO at the top of exter- nal dangers and proclaims complete readiness to protect its Arctic security interests. Experts note an inflated threat perception in Russia Russia has poured when it comes to the Arctic: Moscow believes the West wants to deprive it of its Arctic energy resources into building resources and great power potential. One must also take into account Russia’s overwhelming substantial ground, need for hydrocarbons, as its economy singu- larly depends on energy, and its exaggerated air, and maritime projections of Arctic traffic growth on routes that Moscow hopes to control. forces in the Arctic. Driven by economic need and paranoia, Rus- sia has poured resources into building sub- stantial ground, air, and maritime forces in the Arctic; its Northern and Pacific Fleets now have a nuclear component with strike capa- bilities as far as the US and Canada. In 2019, Russia crucially deployed its most advanced anti-aircraft missile system, the S-400, in the Novaya Zemlya archipelago. All this marked the largest Russian military power build-up in the Arctic in decades. Furthermore, Russia has pursued an aggressive legal policy in the Arctic, seeking, through
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