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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Canada’s North Pole is magnetic, and compasses point towards it. Its time for Corporate Canada and our governments to turn in the same direction. This Discussion Paper is based on the premise that: A. Climate change is quickly impacting Canada’s North and, at the same time, increasing the shipping viability of the Northwest Passage. Maritime shipping will foster other large opportunities. B. Canada must act as quickly to assert its sovereignty over the region and support the lives of local Indigenous peoples. Russia, the U.S., and even China have their own ambitions. C. Asserting Canada’s sovereignty over the Northwest Passage and successful economic development are wholly interdependent. Neither can be achieved without the other. D. Without respect for and collaboration with local Indigenous peoples, neither objective is possible. CANADA’S NEXT GREAT OPPORTUNITY (AND RISK) E. It will take a coalition of like-minded business leaders to convince the Government of Canada, with some urgency, to develop policies and A DISCUSSION PAPER programs that support economic development of the North, including Fall 2020 the commercial operation of the Northwest Passage. Throughout our history, Canada has never truly leveraged, collectively, three of its most important assets: our geographic position in the world as the largest land mass in the North; the shipping potential of the Northwest Passage; and our international reputation for political and economic stability. Canada’s North is very large in geographic and economic potential, but very small in population, infrastructure, and national focus. It is perhaps best to look at it in bites and compared to other such places in the world: The length of CANADA’S ARCTIC COASTLINE 176,000 km The length of CANADA’S NORTHWEST PASSAGE 1,450 km (the largest of any nation) The length of the SUEZ CANAL 180 km The length of the CANADIAN-U.S. BORDER 8,900 km (including the Yukon and Alaska border) The length of the PANAMA CANAL 65 km 5,600 km The length of RUSSIA’S ARCTIC PASSAGE The length of the ST. LAWRENCE SEAWAY 3,769 km (Jointly managed by Canada and the US) Pivoting North – Canada’s Next Great Opportunity (or threat) INVITATION-ONLY ONLINE MEETING OF BUSINESS LEADERS & ARCTIC EXPERTS: Feb 11, 2021 Campbell Strategies Inc., Fall 2020 Over half of Canada’s land mass is north of 60 degrees latitude – including the territories of Yukon, Northwest Territories, and Nunavut as well as Northern Quebec. Yet only 70,000 people live along our northern coast, all of them Indigenous to the region (Inuit, First Nations, and Métis). Most live below the poverty line, and the near-term impacts of climate change are already threatening their traditional lifestyles. This is Canada’s next greatest opportunity – and threat. As the ice melts, the Northwest Passage will become the centre of the world’s new political chessboard. Canada must control it, alone or in partnership, or our sovereignty and long-term economic future will be in jeopardy. Canada must pivot north, away from its traditional focus on the American border. In our opinion, on large issues such as this, the federal government needs motivation from outside of its traditional decisioning processes to act with of sense real urgency and purpose. Canada’s North needs a business strategy behind it. A coalition of like-minded businesses that can embrace, improve, and enable Canada’s Arctic and Northern Policy Framework (see page 12) will not only be able to support the government’s own goals, but also bring real economic gains to the nation, Indigenous peoples, and Canadian business. If government could have done it alone, it would have done so already. “The key elements of Canadian survival and success in this great strategic game come together not at the As it concerns sovereignty and economic development, controlling the middle of that chessboard does not guarantee success. But it goes a long American border, which remains the unique way to exerting influence over the outcome. Same with the Northwest preoccupation of our decision-making class, but Passage. Canadians can – and should – be the main influencers of how, instead at our Arctic border.” where and when the Northwest Passage is developed. Dr. Irvin Studin, Editor in Chief and Publisher More broadly, Canada’s solution to the critical issues of sovereignty in the Global Brief Magazine North and economic sustainability across the country go hand-in-hand. The opportunity is so large that no government, no single business entity, nor individual group of Indigenous peoples can hope to address this alone. Economic Sovereignty WE CALL THIS STRATEGY “PIVOTING NORTH”. Goals Goals Capitalizing on that opportunity will require a robust federal government policy structure supported by investment and operations structures based on such options as public-private-partnerships (P3) and those with Indigenous peoples as partners. Hard work is needed, by Corporate PIVOTING Canada and Indigenous peoples, so that both groups learn the hard skills NORTH as well as the soft skills of how to do business together. We can’t just plant the flag and expect success in a highly competitive and rapidly shifting Business Environmental geo-political context. And the world isn’t waiting for Canada to develop its Opportunities Sustainability own northern region. We need to start now, together. Benefits for Indigenous 2 Peoples Pivoting North – Canada’s Next Great Opportunity (or threat) INVITATION-ONLY ONLINE MEETING OF BUSINESS LEADERS & ARCTIC EXPERTS: Feb 11, 2021 Campbell Strategies Inc., Fall 2020 Our goal at Campbell Strategies is to help facilitate the necessary conversations, relationships, and policies that will set the table for Pivoting North. This discussion paper is the first step in that process, followed by an online meeting of interested leaders from Corporate Canada and experts from the North. This event will be held on Wednesday November 25th, 2020 (11:00am EST). Following the online meeting, Campbell Strategies will invite interested corporate leaders to establish the CANADIAN ARCTIC ACTION COUNCIL. The Council will: 1. Ensure that Canadian business plays a prominent role in delivering Canada’s Arctic and Northern Framework and influences any future policy developments within it. 2. Provide an environment for collaboration among coalition members eager to discuss and pursue partnerships and shared investments in Canada’s Arctic. 3. Ensure that the message that sovereignty and economic development are interdependent is embedded in government policy. 4. Make Canadians at large aware of this interdependence and its importance to the future of the nation’s sovereignty, prosperity, and respect for Indigenous peoples. 5. Invite, encourage, and invest in initiatives that support a better mutual understanding between Indigenous peoples and Corporate Canada. 6. Ensure the integration of the needs of Indigenous peoples and environmental sustainability in the economic development of Canada’s Arctic. 7. Pursue Canadian leadership, ownership, management, and operations of the Northwest Passage along with any partnerships – with other nations or international businesses – that may be required. We invite your opinions on this critical matter, and we hope that you and your organization will consider joining with us at this critical intersection of government policy and business needs. Barry Campbell and Ted Griffith Campbell Strategies Inc. Suite 3210, Commerce Court West Toronto, Ontario M5L 1E7 [email protected] or [email protected] 416.368.7353 www.campbellstrategies.ca 3 Pivoting North – Canada’s Next Great Opportunity (or threat) INVITATION-ONLY ONLINE MEETING OF BUSINESS LEADERS & ARCTIC EXPERTS: Feb 11, 2021 Campbell Strategies Inc., Fall 2020 This paper is divided into four sections: Part 1.0 (pages 5 – 9) Part 2.0 (pages 10 – 27) Part 3.0 (pages 28 – 30) Part 4.0 (pages 31 – 37) THE OPPORTUNITY TO LEAD SITUATION ANALYIS CONCLUSIONS APPENDICES 1. There is much to gain 1. Canada’s North - What and 1. Why should we care? 1. Map of the Arctic Passages 2. A collaboration path forward to a where is it? 2. What does Canada do when? 2. The energy and mineral resources new paradigm 2. Canada’s claims on sovereignty What does Canada do if? of the Arctic 3. The Pivoting North Strategy in the North 3. Call to action 3. Arctic collaboration organizations 3. The evolving geo-political 4. Michael Mann, the EU landscape Ambassador at Large for the 4. Massive opportunities and needs Arctic. 5. North/South Collaboration 4 Pivoting North – Canada’s Next Great Opportunity (or threat) INVITATION-ONLY ONLINE MEETING OF BUSINESS LEADERS & ARCTIC EXPERTS: Feb 11, 2021 Campbell Strategies Inc., Fall 2020 PART 1.0 THE OPPORTUNITY TO LEAD The North needs critical infrastructure. It needs sustainable partnerships. And it needs Corporate Canada to pivot North. KEY QUESTIONS This discussion paper lays out some of the opportunities and challenges in front of us now, 1. What is the opportunity? and down the road, when it comes to delivering on the promise of the North. Starting off • To bring the economic opportunity of with a snapshot of Canada’s North, this paper then looks at the three pillars of sustainable the North together with the sovereignty development in that region: goals of the Northwest Passage and the needs of Indigenous peoples. Asserting and maintaining Canada’s territorial sovereignty 2. Why is it important? Defining specific economic opportunities • Canada’s economic future depends on Proposing partnership models to seize these opportunities it, as well as our role in international Understanding and supporting the mutually reinforcing connections among these pillars affairs. is vital for any meaningful development in Canada’s North. The cornerstone of success 3. Why is it urgent? will be investing in initiatives that establish and maintain two-way relationship between • Other nations, China and Russia Corporate Canada and local Indigenous peoples.
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