The Dark Side of Democratic Advantage: International Crises and Secret Agreements Yevgeniy Kirpichevsky and Phillip Y. Lipscy* Harvard University, Department of Government Stanford University, Department of Political Science * Yevgeniy Kirpichevsky (corresponding author) is a Research Staff Member, Strategy, Forces, and Resources Division, Institute for Defense Analyses, 4850 Mark Center Drive, Alexandria, VA 22311, (703) 845-2489,
[email protected]. Phillip Y. Lipscy is Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Stanford University, 616 Serra Street, Stanford, CA 94305, (650) 725-8867,
[email protected]. We thank Aurel Braun, Bear Braumoeller, James Fearon, Benjamin Fordham, Michael Hiscox, Shuhei Kurizaki, Andrew Kydd, Alex Liebman, Lisa Martin, James Morrow, Steve Rosen, Allan Stam, Janice Stein, Vic Utgoff, Erik Voeten, and numerous panel and seminar participants for helpful comments. Abstract We explore the motivations of leaders to resolve international crises through the use of secret agreements. In particular, we examine agreements that can have both public and secret outcomes. The formal bargaining model illustrates that leaders who value public outcomes, such as democratically elected officials, face incentives to secure a public victory at the cost of private concessions to the adversary. Conversely, leaders who care little about public outcomes, such as personalist dictators, have incentives to demand private concessions in return for publicly backing down. The theory contributes to explaining important empirical puzzles, including democratic and autocratic peace and the tendency of democracies to seemingly win international disputes. Case studies, including the Cuban Missile Crisis, and quantitative evidence lend support to the theory. 2 1 Introduction Secret diplomacy is often associated with a forgone era of Bismarckian intrigue.