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By Timofey Bordachev, Jack A. Goldstone, Aurel Braun, Dimitri Elkin

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By Timofey Bordachev, Jack A. Goldstone, Aurel Braun, Dimitri Elkin RUSSIA-DIRECT.ORG VOL. 4 (2016) ISSUE 7 By Timofey Bordachev, Jack A. Goldstone, AVAILABLE FOR Aurel Braun, SUBSCRIBERS ONLY Dimitri Elkin $4.99 | 29 | CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Britain’s historic decision to exit the EU has raised new questions about globalization, sovereignty and the future of the European integration 04. Russia and the Europe project. It has also raised questions about Russia’s future relationship of the Future with the EU, especially against the backdrop of the continent’s growing BY TIMOFEY BORDACHEV migrant problem and struggle with radical Islamic terrorism. This report examines the debate over globalization and sovereignty from several 08. An American view: different perspectives, presenting unique viewpoints from Russia, Europe What Brexit says about Europe and across the Atlantic. BY JACK A. GOLDSTONE From the Russian perspective, a new EU without Britain will not necessar- ily become an easier partner. Even the embrace of shared challenges – 12. Sovereignty, globalization such as the threat of radical Islamic terrorism – will likely do little to shift and the post-Brexit world Europe’s perception of Russia as a potential threat rather than a potential BY AUREL BRAUN partner. As a result, the prospect of greater trade and economic coopera- tion between Russia and the EU now seems to be in doubt, as Russia 15. Interview with Dmitri Trenin: pursues its Eurasian integration project and greater economic coopera- From globalization to fragmen- tion with China. tation This report includes an interview with Dmitri Trenin, the director of the BY PAVEL KOSHKIN Moscow Carnegie Center, as well as with Vivien Pertusot, the director of the Paris-based think tank IFRI (French Institute of International Rela- 19. Interview with Vivien Pertu- tions). Both give their views of Europe post-Brexit and share their opin- sot: What’s next for Europe? ions on how Russia might begin to rebuild its relationship with Europe. BY ANDREI ZOLOTOV While it is impossible to predict the precise trajectory of European integration over the coming years, one outcome is certain: the security 23. Book review: Will the EU be architecture of Europe will be more stable if Russia and the EU manage able to face the challenges of to find common ground in the wake of Brexit. Russia has a unique and the 21st century? historic opportunity to change its relationship with Europe by becoming BY DIMITRI ELKIN part of the EU’s future debate over sovereignty and globalization, not by isolating itself or by defining itself in opposition to Europe. 25. Further reading AP | 1 | russia-direct.org AUTHORS Timofey Bordachev Associate professor in the Department of International Affairs at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow and Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies. Bordachev is also a program director at the Valdai Club, the depu- ty chief editor of the journal “Russia in Global Affairs” and director of studies at the Council of Foreign and Defense Policy (SVOP). Jack A. Goldstone Sociologist and political scientist, currently the Richard Elman Family Professor of Public Policy at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST) and a Global Fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Center for Scholars in Washington, DC. Gold- stone is the author or editor of nine books and over 100 research articles. He is also a frequent consultant for governments on tra- jectories of political change. Aurel Braun Professor of International Relations and Political Science at the University of Toronto and a Center Associate of the Davis Center at Harvard University. Braun has published extensively on com- munist affairs and strategic studies with a special focus on the problems of the transformation of the socialist systems in the for- mer Soviet Union and in Eastern Europe. His forthcoming book is “Russia, the West and Arctic Security.” Dimitri Elkin Businessman and author, Partner in Twelve Seas Capital, an in- ternational private equity fund. Elkin received his undergraduate degree in mathematics from Lomonosov Moscow State University and his M.B.A. from Harvard University. He is the author of the new book “Russia Turns the Page — Historical Sketches of the End of the Post-Soviet Period.” | 2 | russia-direct.org vw FROM Globalization or fragmentation: In which THE EDITOR direction will the pendulum sway? The outcome of the British referendum to leave the EU, dubbed by the media as Brexit, came as a big surprise for both Russia and the West. It underlines one of the most important trends in international relations — many coun- tries are seeking to boost their sovereignty to be more politically independent from regional centers of power. This means that the idea of globalization, touted by the West, needs reassessing. Even if the pendulum is not swaying in the opposite direction — toward fragmentation — it is now moving in a completely new way. How will globalization proceed from here? How will Russia and the West adjust to the reinvigorated search for greater sovereignty in the post-Brexit world? Will increasing as- pirations for sovereignty among states be able to coexist with the trend of globalization? Will Russia be able to find common ground with a new Europe? Trenin sheds light on the implications of Brexit for Russia, To understand the implications of Brexit for Europe, Rus- Europe and the world from a Russian perspective, Pertusot sia and the world, this new report looks at the problem gives the European viewpoint. from three perspectives: from the position of the EU, Rus- Finally, in this report we outline the key takeaways of the sia and North America. book “The Politics of Everyday Europe” by Georgetown It features analysis by prominent foreign and Russian professor Kathleen McNamara, who takes a closer look at experts, including Jack Goldstone, a global fellow at the the ideas and institutions that define the modern EU. Woodrow Wilson Center for Scholars; Aurel Braun of the I hope you enjoy this issue. Please do not hesitate to University of Toronto; and Timofey Bordachev of the reach me directly at [email protected] with Higher School of Economics in Moscow. your questions. Thank you for being our loyal reader. In addition, the report presents two interviews — with Carnegie Moscow Center Director Dmitri Trenin and with Pavel Koshkin, Editor-in-Chief Vivien Pertusot, the head of the Brussels office of the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI). While Write to us [email protected] for general comments, subscription and distribution questions; Send an email to: [email protected] for your submissions, article proposals, topic suggestions, and content-related comments; [email protected] for sales and advertising. Eugene Abov Chairman, Russia Direct, Deputy Director General, Rossiyskaya Gazeta Publishing House, Publisher, Russia Beyond The Headlines Julia Golikova Director for Development, Russia Direct, Deputy Publisher, Commercial and Foreign Partnership Director, Russia Beyond The Headlines Pavel Koshkin Editor-in-Chief Ksenia Zubacheva Executive Editor Dominic Basulto Executive Editor, U.S. Andrei Zolotov Executive Editor, Europe Alexey Khlebnikov Senior Editor Julia Sinitsky Intern Elena Potapova Head of Video and Mobile Yaroslav Cohen Digital Innovations Producer Pavel Inzhelevskiy Video Producer Olga Fastova Associate Publisher, Sales, Marketing, Events Maria Shashaeva Deputy Publisher, Circulation, Digital Strategy and Operations Ekaterina Belan Digital Marketing Manager Anna Sergeeva Representative, New York Olga Guitchounts Representative, Washington, D.C. Andrey Shimarskiy Art Director Nikolay Shiyanov Senior Designer Alexander Kislov Designer Maria Oshepkova Production Designer Andrey Zaitsev Head of Photo Department Nikolay Korolev Photo Editor © Russia Direct 2016 All rights reserved. ISSN 2412-8171. A product of No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, or by any information storage and retrieval system. The views expressed are those of certain participants in the discussion and do not necessarily reflect the views of all participants or of Russia Direct. | 3 | russia-direct.org REX/FOTODOM Russia and the Europe of the Future In its new form, the Timofey Bordachev European Union will his summer, an international group organized a young diplomats’ not be an easier or summer school in an EU state. The attendees included young Tpeople from countries across Europe, including Russia and France. more responsible To the organizers’ delight, a major EU official agreed to participate as a partner for Moscow. lecturer. The organizers also invited a high-ranking representative from the Eurasian Economic Union to the panel. After the EU representative learned about the attendance of her counterpart from Moscow, however, she withdrew her participation, as the EU continues its non-recognition policy toward Eurasian integration. The whole debacle came as a com- plete surprise to the conference organizers, who never expected that the EU would extend the high-level problems it has with Moscow to a purely non-governmental event organized for young people. I mention this incident to draw attention to one simple and sad fact: even when the European Union is facing, arguably, the most difficult challenges in its history, it shows perseverance worthy of a better cause in its struggles against Russia. So far, the EU’s policy has been aimed at deliberately undermining any initiatives it cannot lead and dominate. | 4 | russia-direct.org Some officials go as far as to assert that there is WHEN FACED WITH THE CHALLENGE “good” integration (that is, one headed by the EU) and “bad”, or wrong, integration (in which coop- OF SAVING THE PROJECT AFTER THE eration develops other than under the guidance of Brussels). This trend is unlikely to change in the near EXIT OF THE UK, THE LEADING EU future. The European Union and its ruling elites will POWERS WILL WOrk TO SOLIDIFY AT fight for their right to dictate the rules to the others even at death’s door which, sadly, seems to be nearer ALL COSTS THE Union’s common and nearer.
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