Royal Borough of Kensington & Chelsea School Organisation And
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Royal Borough of Kensington & Chelsea School Organisation and Investment Strategy 2016 Introduction The number of pupils on roll in state-funded schools in Kensington & Chelsea at the start of the 2015/16 academic year (both resident and non-resident) is as follows: 1 193 at 4 Nursery schools 7,282 at 26 Primary schools (6,800 plus 482 nursery) 4,822 at 6 Secondary schools (4,090 plus 732 in 6th forms) In addition: 50 at Latimer Alternative Provision Academy 96 at Chelsea Community Hospital School The population of the Royal Borough of Kensington & Chelsea dropped from 169,494 to 155,594 in 2013 but has now risen to 158,741 in 2015. Nevertheless it is one of the most densely populated areas in Europe. The population turnover is estimated at 20% per year. Two wards are among the 10% most deprived in England and our schools have more than twice the national rate of pupils from disadvantaged backgrounds. The school population includes a rich diversity of cultures. Many new pupils are likely to be refugees, asylum seekers or from a transient population. Over 50% of the Borough’s school-aged population is of ethnic origin and nearly half identify English as a second language. According to the latest GLA projections the primary school population is expected to be significantly lower than was forecast in 2015 and by 2026 it will be nearly 1,000 lower. By contrast the projected number at secondary level is higher. By 2021 that number will be nearly 500 higher before leveling off by 2026. The projections are influenced by a number of factors and as a result this Strategy will be revised and updated annually. 1 DfE Autumn Pupil Census 2015 1 The Royal Borough has invested heavily in providing sufficient places for every child who needs a school place, as well as those children who require special educational provision. New schools will be created as part of development or regeneration schemes where there is a requirement for additional places. Kensington Primary Academy will open in September 2016 as part of the major housing development. Kensington Aldridge Academy for secondary pupils will provide a further 540 places when it is fully open in 2018/19. The Council will seek to expand or improve existing schools where it is justified by local demand, or development opportunities arise. The current investment programme, combined with investment in new free schools, will deliver a further 500 primary school places across the borough by 2023-24 and a new 80-place special school for pupils aged 3-19 is planned to open in 2020. Details of the capital programme are set out later in this report. The proportion of borough resident pupils attending independent schools has remained over 50% in both the primary and secondary sectors during the past 5 years. The primary sector has risen slightly from 53% to 55% while the secondary sector has risen from 52% to 57%. The Royal Borough’s schools represent a major asset in the community, and as well as providing an excellent standard for education, the Council seeks to use the buildings to deliver other strategies for improving the lives of very young children, students leaving schools and entering the world of work, and a wide range of other community services. 2 Appendix 1 Schools Key 3 1. Background London as a whole is facing an increase in demand for school places as set out in London Councils’ publications ‘Do the Maths 2015’ and ‘The London Equation’. There will be a 3% increase in primary pupil growth across London in the period 2015 and 2019, creating a need for up to 83,000 additional primary school pupils, and by 73,000 secondary school pupils by 2020. It will have a larger secondary pupil population compared to other regions in England, and its rate of growth will almost double over the next 5 years. See appendix 2. 2. Projections The Council subscribes to the GLA School Roll Projection Service (SRP), which provides a 10 year forecast. The annual projections form the initial source of data for local authority maintained school place planning. Updated projections of London’s population by age, sex, and local authority or ward of residence are produced in January. The GLA pupil projections are used by the majority local authorities in London. The GLA’s school roll projection model incorporates multiple sets of GLA ward-level population projections, historic roll data, and urban regeneration data. The GLA school roll projections are also used to complete the annual School Capacity (SCAP) return to the DfE. Historically the DfE has used the data to calculate the Basic Need Allocations to fund the provision of all new school places (except free schools), although no Basic Need funding has been allocated to the Royal Borough for 2018 onwards, reflecting the success of the Council’s investment programme, and is unlikely to be a significant future source of funding due to the presumption that new schools will be free schools. The GLA School Roll Projection Service enables comparisons to be made on a consistent basis with Hammersmith & Fulham and Westminster and other London boroughs including Brent, Camden, Lambeth and Southwark where demand for pupil places is more acute. The GLA model does not take account of new schools not yet open, or forecast the potential impact of un-committed regeneration. GLA pupil projections are based on existing school rolls, which include non residents on roll at local authority schools, forward population estimates and migration, new housing developments that have been agreed by the borough planning department, GP registrations, child benefit and ONS data. 4 Birth rates and Housing Benefits reforms may affect future primary and secondary pupil projections over time. Fluctuations in any of these factors will affect future projections and should be taken into account as pupil forecasts are adjusted over time. The GLA model does not account for children in the Private, Voluntary and Independent (PVI) settings, but these are taken into consideration in the Council’s analysis in view of the very significant PVI provision in the Royal Borough. Demand for secondary school places is projected to grow at a much faster rate than for primary places. The following charts summarise the primary and secondary roll projections, based on current GLA projections, compared to school Published Admissions Numbers for the next ten years. When planning investment to provide additional school places, the Council will review the capacity of existing buildings and sites, where space can be re-designated, or create scope for temporary solutions. The DfE recommends that local authorities aim to hold a surplus of up to 5% in order allow for mobility. Section 3 (Analysis), outlines how the Council anticipates the potential impact of regeneration on future pupil place planning. The Primary Roll Projection table (YR - Y6) shows sufficient capacity to meet primary school place demand in maintained schools. For the next 10 years 2016 to 2026 there are sufficient primary places to meet demand. The current GLA estimates show primary numbers in RBKC will not increase at such a high rate as previously projected. There is a slight deficiency in primary places in the south of the borough, which will be eliminated by 2018. The increasing volume of surplus places may offer future opportunities for education provision, subject to further analysis. 5 RBKC Primary Roll Projections 4,700 4,200 3,700 3,200 2,700 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Projections North PANs North Projections South PANs South Published Projection GLA Admissions Reported in Difference Year Projection Number 2015 PAN/Projection R – Y6 (PAN) 437 2016 7,293 6,856 6,802 (2015) 6.4% surplus 1,239 2021 7,818 6,579 7,002 (2020) 18.8% surplus 1,786 2026 7,938 6,152 7,112 (2025) 29% surplus 6 In the secondary sector there is a sufficiency of places for Y7 to Y11 which takes into account the added pressure of increased number of primary pupils feeding through the system. These statistics exclude 6th form provision at schools. RBKC Secondary Roll Projections 5,000 4,750 4,500 4,250 4,000 3,750 3,500 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 GLA Projections PANs Published Projection GLA Admission Reported in Difference Year Projection s Number 2015 PAN/projection (Y7-Y11) (PAN) 3,757 (2015) 215 2016 4,224 4,045 5.3% surplus 4,089 (2020) 311 2021 4,800 4,489 6.9% surplus 4,269 (2025) 363 2026 4,800 4,437 8.2% surplus 7 3. Analysis School Population Trends Birth rates across London are falling, although variations occur across local authorities. Data on GP registrations suggests that the rate of population increase is declining. At the 2015 mid-year point 1,442 births were registered in Kensington & Chelsea which is 378 fewer than at the same point in 2014. The slight increase in the borough population may reflect the longevity of residents or young professionals moving into the borough, rather than birth rates or younger families. Local Variations Wards, in the Royal Borough, show local variations in population growth during the period 2016 – 2026. The current GLA Borough Preferred Option (BPO) ward projections forecast the Post 16 and secondary populations to increase by 23% and 13% respectively, as the primary population boom slows down with a modest increase of 9%. The BPO ward projections are not school roll projections and as such should only be viewed as indication or illustration of wider population trends. These are consistent with ONS projections which, whilst showing a slight decline in birthrates, do not take into account regeneration projects.